So...Hollinger..

[Rick41]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Because Hollinger is a little bitch.

(according to my numbers...)

Pin point accuracy.

[sefant77]

Trollinger picked Spurs in 6

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010...purs-mavericks

So what he gonna say when we beat them?`That he didnt see that Parker/Hill/blabla arent on full strength?

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

Hollinger, on the other hand, beat out Kevin Pelton and Henry's mom.

He also really tore it up with his 2008 prediction of the Jazz making the finals, after beating the Hornets in the WCF, and succumbing to the Celtics in 6. Almost had it, John. A choice piece:

There's a tendency to overreact to What Just Happened, so Utah's stinker against San Antonio on Wednesday night probably increased everyone's doubts about this team.

Nonetheless, the Power Rankings have Utah as the league's second-best team, and the Playoff Odds give them the best chance of winning the West at 31.0 perecnt.

...

Overall, Utah won an astounding 18 games by more than 20 points. In contrast, the Jazz didn't lose a single game by more than 20 points all season ...

Simply astounding! Maybe Utah could have used some of those leftover points in the second round against the Lakers that year.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Trollinger picked Spurs in 6

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010...purs-mavericks

So what he gonna say when we beat them?`That he didnt see that Parker/Hill/blabla arent on full strength?

He'd probably say Suns in 6.

[mcsluggo]

holy bejeebus the amount of bet-wetting that you people get into over Hollinger is amazing!

Taken as a general rule, "power rankings" are a steaming mound of twice used toilet paper. They stink. They are ALSO usually totally boring, as most of them just take the current standings and tweak a team here and there 2-3 spots because of a recent injury or bad loss.

gggzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz <snore>


Hollinger AT LEAST does something different. he sets a formula that uses some other (but related) factors to come up with a mathematical ranking. Nobody would expect this to be fully accurate, because it doen't have that many variables and it explicitly avoids the overt tweaking.

it is what it is. love it or hate it, it isn't subjective. THEN he tries to defend his rankings ---- and this is where he gets into a little trouble. But still.... the level of panty bunching that takes place here over it is phenomenal! .... but it does seem to fit well into the generalized persecution complex that members on this board seem to exhibit.

The league and Stern and Hollinger are not out to get the mavs... really.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

it is what it is. love it or hate it, it isn't entirely subjective. THEN he tries to defend his rankings ---- and this is where he refuses to budge when his rankings occasionally produce nonsensical outputs, instead opting to cherry pick favorable data points to support his argument while ignoring all others. But still.... the level of panty bunching that takes place here over it is phenomenal! .... but it does seem to fit well into the generalized persecution complex that fans of every sports team in the world seem to exhibit.

Fixed.

[mcsluggo]

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

Fair enough, but that seems to be circumstance more than anything.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

I think all the people here are making fun of him more than anything else. I find his attempts to defend his rankings to be funny...e.g. Neutral Court Advantage, Close wins are not worth anything (b/c close games are a coin flip), Bucks > Mavs, Trade had no effect on Dallas, etc...

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

I'm gonna nail you to a couple pieces of wood if you keep talking like that.


<---this is my serious face (like, seriously serious......... wood... nail... you...)

[sefant77]

Trollinger reached the point where i just love to make fun about the crap he writes

[Dnowit41]

Heres the crap coming out of Hollinger's garbage mouth

(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%

This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.

Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)

Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.

I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.

The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)

In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).

Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.

What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.

As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.

Pick: Spurs in six

[quietsavant]

Originally Posted by Dnowit41

Heres the crap coming out of Hollinger's garbage mouth

(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%

This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.

Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)

Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.

I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.

The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)

In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).

Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.

What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.

As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.

Pick: Spurs in six

Someone get me this son of a bitch's email. I have a message for him.

[Murphy3]

Here's the thing... Power Rankings are just rankings.. They are not magical. They have flaws even if based upon statistics. Hollinger's rankings have obvious flaws. So, who really cares? Hollinger is also flawed because he doesn't like to admit that his rankings can be flawed... He backs up his rankings to a fault. I know that.. You guys know that. Hell, I'm sure he even knows that deep down inside. So, screw it.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by Dnowit41

Heres the crap coming out of Hollinger's garbage mouth

(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%

This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.

Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)

Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.

I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.

The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)

In all seriousness, Dallas played the league's second-easiest schedule over the final quarter. Of the Mavs' final 21 games, 12 were against lottery teams, two others were against the lottery-esque Bulls and one was against San Antonio's scrubs -- plus, 12 of the 21 games were at home. So only six of 21 were against playoff-caliber competition, and they lost four of those games (and two others).

Meanwhile, San Antonio faced a murderer's row over the final month. Eleven of the Spurs' final 17 opponents won 50 games, and two others (Memphis and Houston) were respectable, plus 10 of the 17 were on the road. In that time, the Spurs beat Cleveland, L.A., Orlando, Denver, Boston and Oklahoma City, and posted a better scoring margin against the brutal schedule than Dallas did against its parade of softies.

What I'm saying is that the records deceive -- by most advanced measures, San Antonio appears to be the better team. As for that little 41-0 thing? It comes into play only because the Spurs tanked the season finale in Dallas. Had they won, the season series would be 2-2 and I'd have no reason whatsoever to pick Dallas.

As noted, the last team to defy the 41-0 rule was the Spurs, who did it the last time they went into a series without home-court advantage in the first round. It looks like they'll do it again.

Pick: Spurs in six

At this point, you can obviously see that it is personal with the guy. It is no longer just about his stats.. He has been questioned and is openly rooting against the Mavs. In my opinion, it goes back to what I said a couple of weeks ago.. His judgment should be looked at with a huge grain of salt because he is losing his objectivity.

[CadBane]

So the Bulls are lottery-esque even though they are in the playoffs? And woah woah woah John, did you just say we only played 6 playoff teams and lost 4 of them post ASG?Now I know for a fact that can't be correct, because post-asg we beat Phoenix, Denver, and Portland. That's three wins against playoff teams. The guy is just straight lying these days.

[CadBane]

We beat LA post ASG too, that's four! So how exactly did we play 6 playoff teams and lose 4 games John? I'm no mathematician, but...

[CadBane]

Oh wait, I see he decided to cherry pick his stats (shocker) and say "last 21 games" which I guess just misses 2 of those big wins. Funny how that works.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by CadBane

Oh wait, I see he decided to cherry pick his stats (shocker) and say "last 21 games" which I guess just misses 2 of those big wins. Funny how that works.

I assume he did that because 21 games is 1/4 of the season (rounded up), but cherry picking is still absolutely the right word. That's all this guy does when his rankings spit out something suspect.

[Eman]

If San Antonio gave us the 4th game, then I guess we won the series 2 to 1.

How does Trollinger assume we would have lost to SA if Duncan Ginobli had been in? Doesn't he think our effort would have been higher with them in? He can't count game 4 as a win for the Spurs just because they didn't try. We still won the season series 2 to 1

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

At this point, you can obviously see that it is personal with the guy. It is no longer just about his stats.. He has been questioned and is openly rooting against the Mavs. In my opinion, it goes back to what I said a couple of weeks ago.. His judgment should be looked at with a huge grain of salt because he is losing his objectivity.

He's obviously motivated largely by his growing reputation as a heel for Mavs fans.

[u2sarajevo]

The more that people pay attention to Hollinger the more he wins. He's getting exactly what he wants.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by u2sarajevo

The more that people pay attention to Hollinger the more he wins. He's getting exactly what he wants.

unless, of course, the Mavs mop up the Spurs and then go on to win the championship. If we believe in the Mavs, then we need to shine a bright light on his idiocy.

[u2sarajevo]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

unless, of course, the Mavs mop up the Spurs and then go on to win the championship. If we believe in the Mavs, then we need to shine a bright light on his idiocy.

Oh I hear you.... but either way the more people read his garbage the more he's legitimized in the eyes of his employer. And when he's talked about ad nauseum it will only help him.

But I do understand the temptation to do so. We know he's nothing more than a homer for two teams as Fish pointed out a month or 2 ago. I just wish he'd go away. Or am I overthinking this... should I rejoice in his idiocy because of the high potential for embarrassment waiting for him in 1 1/2 to 2 weeks.

See? Now I'm getting drawn in. I think my blood is starting to boil thinking about him for the first time..... DANG IT.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by u2sarajevo

... should I rejoice in his idiocy because of the high potential for embarrassment waiting for him in 1 1/2 to 2 weeks..

yes! and push him as far out on that limb as he's willing to go.

[xrobx]

i love how he doesn't mention that the spurs failed to make a push to win the division because they lost to the nets and at home to the grizzlies in the last couple weeks of the season

[FINtastic]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

That's because the idiocy that Hollinger displayed in that article he wrote in Mid-March is several deviations above normal.

I honestly don't have a problem with his power rankings. He created a neat little formula that attempts to rank the teams, and I am sure they are about as accurate as any other power rankings out there. What I do have a problem with is some of the moronic reasoning he used throughout that particular article to justify why so many teams were ranked higher than the Mavs. If he had just said something to the effect of, "this is just a model, there are always outliers and the Mavs just might be one", I would have been fine. I would have even been fine with him taking teams like the Nuggets, Jazz, and maybe a couple others that he had ranked ahead of us despite a record that said otherwise.

The problem comes when he starts cherry-picking head-to-head records in cases that support his point while ignoring those that don't, and then starts writing nonsense about how guys like Nicholas Batum are more impactful midseason acquisitions than the Mavs' midseason trade. Stuff like this is worthy of some major hate coming in Lollinger's direction, no matter whether my panties are in a bunch or very neatly ironed.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

i am willing to accept most of you fixes... but i will stand firm onthe fact that right now the persecution complex here is several standard deviations above normal.

I can agree with this for the most part. Hollinger obviously has a bit going on with regards to what he's saying about the Mavs... but who cares? Yes, I started the thread so I obviously cared at that time. But in the end, he's just a guy that happens to get paid for a flawed ranking system. It really doesn't matter what the guy thinks in the end.

[chumdawg]

Hollinger isn't the only guy who thinks the Mavs are overrated. Basketball-reference.com has us ranked 7th in the conference, in terms of win probabilities:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ayoff_prob.cgi

They like the Thunder better than us.

[Murphy3]

Again, putting any stock into statistical analysis based upon a full season when the current team is drastically different from that at the All-Star Break is just goofy.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Applying Hollinger's rating to just the 30 games after the all star break, I got about 105, which would be 6th in the league. However, I don't know the strength of schedules, so I used a modest 0.460 for both overall and last 10.

[Windmill360]

Well we'll find out soon wont we.

[greensborohill]

lolz

Yes, that's all I have to say.

[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by Dnowit41

Heres the crap coming out of Hollinger's garbage mouth

(2) Dallas vs. (7) San Antonio
Season series: 3-1 Mavs.
Odds say: Spurs 74.5%; Mavs 24.5%

This is one of two matchups that really vexed me, because the statistical indicators basically collide with themselves.

Let's start at the top. In a previous piece on the Mavs that got Dallas fans stirred up, I mentioned I thought my Power Rankings had overrated San Antonio. Oops. As it turns out, they were remarkably prescient: San Antonio went on to crush one contender after another the rest of the way. (Lesson: Never try to make playoff predictions in early March. Not that making them in mid-April will turn out much better.)

Second, there's that whole 41-0 thing. Dallas won the season series with San Antonio 3-1, so the Spurs would be a glaring exception to the rule if I were to pick them.

I've been cynical about Dallas' contender status ("Really?" Mavs nation says, "You don't say?"), but the Mavs played much better over the final 10 days of the season and ended up with a respectable point differential over the final quarter of the season. The Mavs also are 23-7 since trading for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, which is superior to San Antonio's 20-11 mark in that time.

The difference is that San Antonio played one of the league's most difficult schedules over the final quarter of the season, while Dallas' schedule looked like it was drawn up by TCU's football program. (You like that? Two Dallas sports insults in one sentence! P.S.: Roger Staubach was a ninny.)

Hey, he insulted TCU football. Now he's gone too far! Get the torches and pitchforks.

[Eman]

Here is Hollinger's player rankings in the postseason so far. Dirk is number 1 with a PER of 42.4!!!!! Hollinger's head must be about to explode.


Hollinger Playoff Stats - Player Efficiency Rating - Qualified Players
RK PLAYER GP MPG TS% AST TO USG ORR DRR REBR PER VA EWA
1 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL 1 40.0 .934 4.7 4.7 20.9 5.7 15.0 10.2 42.40 18.4 0.6
2 Jameer Nelson, ORL 1 37.0 .743 20.3 6.8 29.2 0.0 14.4 6.9 38.86 15.4 0.5
3 Andre Miller, POR 1 39.0 .724 24.7 9.3 27.4 3.1 9.7 6.8 37.95 15.7 0.5
4 DeJuan Blair, SAS 1 8.0 1.000 33.3 0.0 11.8 15.0 14.3 14.6 37.40 3.2 0.1
5 LeBron James, CLE 2 40.5 .671 19.8 7.6 28.0 1.6 17.5 10.3 33.89 28.3 0.9
6 Russell Westbrook, OKC 1 38.0 .648 29.9 3.7 23.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 32.27 12.1 0.4
7 Brendan Haywood, DAL 1 18.0 .850 12.7 12.7 16.2 19.0 20.0 19.5 31.42 5.6 0.2
8 Steve Nash, PHO 1 34.0 .662 30.1 6.7 27.8 2.8 0.0 1.6 31.33 10.3 0.3
9 Jerryd Bayless, POR 1 23.0 .645 6.7 0.0 24.6 5.2 12.3 9.2 30.84 6.8 0.2
10 Brandon Jennings, MIL 1 40.0 .635 9.2 9.2 32.1 3.0 6.9 4.8 30.38 11.6 0.4

[fluid.forty.one]

Andre Miler.


lol

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Andre Miler.


lol

You still rooting against Portland? Or are you hoping for a showdown in Round 2?

[aurelino9]

Just for fun, anyone know what Hollinger has to say about game 2 on the insider?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by aurelino9

Just for fun, anyone know what Hollinger has to say about game 2 on the insider?

Mavs lose.

(and even if they don't, they suck...)

[dirno2000]

Originally Posted by aurelino9

Just for fun, anyone know what Hollinger has to say about game 2 on the insider?

Hasn't mentioned it yet. Today's per diem was about adjustments the losing teams need to make for tonight's game.