Playoff Matchups - Page 3 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

LonghornDub · 04-11-2011, 12:16 AM

Tell you what I'd love. If the Mavs can't get the two seed, I'd love that 3rd to last scenario where OKC actually jumps LA and we fall to 4. Highly unlikely, of course, but that would pit the Lakers against the Blazers in the first round and then on the road against OKC in the second. That'd be wonderful.

Actually, nowhereman, I think you do need to redo that. OKC has the tiebreaker over Dallas. Winning your division is now a seeding tiebreaker over head-to-head. New rule change in 2007 (2008?). It's ambiguously listed in places on NBA.com, but that's definitely the rule now.

nowhereman · 04-11-2011, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Actually, nowhereman, I think you do need to redo that. OKC has the tiebreaker over Dallas. Winning your division is now a seeding tiebreaker over head-to-head. New rule change in 2007 (2008?). It's ambiguously listed in places on NBA.com, but that's definitely the rule now.

Good call, reread this

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/feature...3/tiebreakers/

and I will get the new one out there ASAP

nowhereman · 04-11-2011, 12:37 AM

updated:

nowhereman · 04-11-2011, 12:54 AM

From the game story on nba.com for tomorrow:

Quote:

The Mavericks own the tiebreaker over the Thunder, but must finish ahead of the Lakers.

http://www.nba.com/games/20110411/DALHOU/gameinfo.html

I'm gonna go with LHD's interpretation and say we in fact do not own a tiebreaker over OKC, but this certainly is getting muddled

Dirkadirkastan · 04-11-2011, 03:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

updated:

Line 19 is certainly appealing.

Mavsfan4ever · 04-11-2011, 10:44 AM

I don't really like how we match up with LA so I would like to avoid them in the second round. I'm uncertain who I would want to face out SA or OKC in the second round because we match up well with SA, but I'm unsure if OKC's youth would be helpful or a hinderence in the playoffs giving their lack of experience.

j0Shi · 04-11-2011, 12:10 PM

Forget about SA beating LA. They will rest their stars and if LA wins this one Spurs will make sure they won't end up in their bracket.

My thoughts:

If New Orleans beats Utah today and Memphis the Blazers tomorrow, I'd say we'll do this:

Tank the game against the Hornets. This won't guarantee you the Hornets in the first round, but they'll have to win to get a shot at 6th. A Memphis W and a Portland L would push them to 7th, but in all other scenarios they will end up 6th.

That would also open it up for Oklahoma City to take over the 4th, but that's okay for me as well.

FromDownTown! · 04-11-2011, 12:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Forget about SA beating LA. They will rest their stars and if LA wins this one Spurs will make sure they won't end up in their bracket.

Not sure if this is true. Chicago is knocking on SA door. I cannot see Pops folding if they still have a shot to win it all and that may include a SA/Bulls Final.

Mavsfan4ever · 04-11-2011, 12:29 PM

Tanking to fall to fourth and avoid the Lakers is BS. That is the Mavs saying we have no confidence the Lakers can beat us and we know it. Screw that they need to say bring it you MF'ers we are scared of nobody we came to play.

OSUmavsfan · 04-11-2011, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Forget about SA beating LA. They will rest their stars and if LA wins this one Spurs will make sure they won't end up in their bracket.

My thoughts:

If New Orleans beats Utah today and Memphis the Blazers tomorrow, I'd say we'll do this:

Tank the game against the Hornets. This won't guarantee you the Hornets in the first round, but they'll have to win to get a shot at 6th. A Memphis W and a Portland L would push them to 7th, but in all other scenarios they will end up 6th.

That would also open it up for Oklahoma City to take over the 4th, but that's okay for me as well.

If New Orleans wins tonight, then I'd say the Mavs try to win against New Orleans. That would almost definitely put New Orleans in 7th and the Mavs would just be a Lakers loss away from getting New Orleans in the 1st round and homecourt against the Lakers in the 2nd round. Of course it would be a much easier decision how to play it if the Lakers and Thunder would lose before Wednesday

.

CadBane · 04-11-2011, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavsfan4ever

Tanking to fall to fourth and avoid the Lakers is BS. That is the Mavs saying we have no confidence the Lakers can beat us and we know it. Screw that they need to say bring it you MF'ers we are scared of nobody we came to play.

Bologna.

A. RC obviously wouldn't say "tank", but he could rest all the starters.

B. We have NO reason to believe we can beat LA.

C. The playoffs ARE all about matchups. You know how many rings would be on different fingers if paths were crossed differently?

It's not about being scared, it's about being smart and realistic. I guarantee you a lot of players feel the same way.

b_o_r · 04-11-2011, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Forget about SA beating LA. They will rest their stars and if LA wins this one Spurs will make sure they won't end up in their bracket.

My thoughts:

If New Orleans beats Utah today and Memphis the Blazers tomorrow, I'd say we'll do this:

Tank the game against the Hornets. This won't guarantee you the Hornets in the first round, but they'll have to win to get a shot at 6th. A Memphis W and a Portland L would push them to 7th, but in all other scenarios they will end up 6th.

That would also open it up for Oklahoma City to take over the 4th, but that's okay for me as well.

Did you take into account that NO owns the tiebreak over Portland?

fluid.forty.one · 04-11-2011, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b_o_r

Did you take into account that NO owns the tiebreak over Portland?

If Memphis beats Portland we'd still have to lose to NO to keep them tied with the Blazers. They're a game behind in the loss column right now.

deamon · 04-11-2011, 05:17 PM

Line 19 is best scenario, but not possible.

j0Shi · 04-11-2011, 09:24 PM

With NO losing today, the one that wins tomorrows game in Memphis is pretty much set as our first round opponent if we don't fall to the 4th. Spurs will most likely end up with New Orleans.

RareMilk · 04-11-2011, 10:11 PM

Unrelated news in the East...Pacers make the playoffs!

fluid.forty.one · 04-11-2011, 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RareMilk

Unrelated news in the East...Pacers make the playoffs!

COY in my opinion. Maybe George Karl.

LonghornDub · 04-11-2011, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RareMilk

Unrelated news in the East...Pacers make the playoffs!

Pretty sure they clinched like 4-5 days ago. Just FYI.

OSUmavsfan · 04-11-2011, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j0Shi

With NO losing today, the one that wins tomorrows game in Memphis is pretty much set as our first round opponent if we don't fall to the 4th. Spurs will most likely end up with New Orleans.

Why do you assume a team that's lost 5 straight games is suddenly guaranteed to win its last two games? Their last game against the Kings may not be as easy as expected. They're certainly giving the Thunder all they can handle right now.

mavs777 · 04-11-2011, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

COY in my opinion. Maybe George Karl.

I like what Collins has done in Philly

RareMilk · 04-11-2011, 10:39 PM

Just lurking on small market teams. You never know...surprise upset

Quote:

Finally, a national TV game.

Real GM pacer forum post

j0Shi · 04-11-2011, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OSUmavsfan

Why do you assume a team that's lost 5 straight games is suddenly guaranteed to win its last two games? Their last game against the Kings may not be as easy as expected. They're certainly giving the Thunder all they can handle right now.

Yes. I don't believe the Lakers will lose either to the Spurs, resting their stars and probably tanking that one anyway, or the Kings.

OSUmavsfan · 04-11-2011, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Yes. I don't believe the Lakers will lose either to the Spurs, resting their stars and probably tanking that one anyway, or the Kings.

You may be right that the Spurs will rest their stars, but remember that they're still competing with the Bulls for home court should they both make the finals. If I were them, that would be pretty important to have.

CadBane · 04-11-2011, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

COY in my opinion. Maybe George Karl.

Is that a joke? COY for making the playoffs while under .500?

Smh.

By the way, Tom T or Doug Collins will win COY. Book it, bet the farm. Both deserve it, too.

fluid.forty.one · 04-11-2011, 11:01 PM

I thought he said Philly. My bad, I meant Collins.

I don't even know who the coach of the Pacers is.

DavidDaMonkey · 04-11-2011, 11:11 PM

May I just say bravo to the team that puts together the NBA schedules. I know the Mavs kinda got screwed there towards the end, but this is some very exciting basketball all the way down to the wire.

nowhereman · 04-12-2011, 12:14 AM

nowhereman · 04-12-2011, 12:15 AM

nowhereman · 04-12-2011, 12:21 AM

So the only way we can beat the Hornets and still play them in the first round is if:

Grizzlies lose both games (@POR, @LAC) and Lakers lose at least once

fluid.forty.one · 04-12-2011, 12:23 AM

I can't think right now.. what % of the total possibilities has us playing Portland?

mavs777 · 04-12-2011, 12:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

So the only way we can beat the Hornets and still play them in the first round is if:

Grizzlies lose both games (@POR, @LAC) and Lakers lose at least once

I am fine with playing the Grizzlies, they are dangerous but I like our chances against every first round matchup save Portland really

nowhereman · 04-12-2011, 12:48 AM

(keep in mind this is all with all scenarios weighed equally - assign the weight as much as you want based on what you consider the possibility we win or lose)

If all possibilities are equally weighed, Dallas has a 7/16 chances of getting the 2 seed, requiring a NOR loss, meaning -
Portland has a 3/8 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's 21/128 or 16.4% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed
Memphis has a 3/8 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's a 21/128 or 16.4% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed
New Orleans has a 1/4 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's a 7/64 or 10.9% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed

If all possibilities are equally weighed, Dallas has a 6/16 shot of getting the 3 seed, 2 scenarios w/ a Win and 4 scenarios w/ a Loss
If it's with a W, 5/8 (62.5% chance) they play Portland, 3/8 (37.5% chance) they play Memphis
If it's with a L, 5/8 (62.5% chance) they play Portland, 2/8 (25% chance) they play Memphis, 1/8 (12.5%) chance they play New Orleans

And of course, if they're the 4 seed (3/16 scenarios), they play Denver

so my best answer to your question fluid is: "??!?!?"

nowhereman · 04-12-2011, 12:53 AM

So if you really wanna avoid portland, the optimal way to do it is to get the 2 seed, and the best way to do that is to beat NO.

If you really wanna get NO, the optimal way to do that is to tank the game and hope the Blazers beat the Grizz, and that either OKC loses or LA loses twice (but not necessarily both)

fluid.forty.one · 04-12-2011, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

So if you really wanna avoid portland, the optimal way to do it is to get the 2 seed, and the best way to do that is to beat NO.

If you really wanna get NO, the optimal way to do that is to tank the game and hope the Blazers beat the Grizz, and that either OKC loses or LA loses twice (but not necessarily both)

I'm not sure how us tanking vs NO, the Blazers winning and OKC losing (without LA losing) get us DAL vs NO... but it's late, so I might be brain dead.

Wouldn't that scenario keep us at the 3 seed and keep the Blazers as the 6th seed?

fluid.forty.one · 04-12-2011, 01:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

(keep in mind this is all with all scenarios weighed equally - assign the weight as much as you want based on what you consider the possibility we win or lose)

If all possibilities are equally weighed, Dallas has a 7/16 chances of getting the 2 seed, requiring a NOR loss, meaning -
Portland has a 3/8 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's 21/128 or 16.4% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed
Memphis has a 3/8 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's a 21/128 or 16.4% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed
New Orleans has a 1/4 shot of getting the 7 seed - so it's a 7/64 or 10.9% that they face as a 2 v. 7 seed

If all possibilities are equally weighed, Dallas has a 6/16 shot of getting the 3 seed, 2 scenarios w/ a Win and 4 scenarios w/ a Loss
If it's with a W, 5/8 (62.5% chance) they play Portland, 3/8 (37.5% chance) they play Memphis
If it's with a L, 5/8 (62.5% chance) they play Portland, 2/8 (25% chance) they play Memphis, 1/8 (12.5%) chance they play New Orleans

And of course, if they're the 4 seed (3/16 scenarios), they play Denver

so my best answer to your question fluid is: "??!?!?"

haha, that's totally understandable. I wouldn't have been able to get as far as you did without getting frustrated or bored.

I'm not even sure that I want to avoid the Blazers.. it's a big risk vs rewards thing for me and I don't know what I would prefer.

fluid.forty.one · 04-12-2011, 01:51 AM

If we want to avoid the Blazers then I think tomorrow is a very important day. We are rooting for either a. They lose to Memphis or b. The Lakers lose to the Spurs.

But not both, right?

CadBane · 04-12-2011, 03:54 AM

If LA wins against SA, and Portland beats Memphis, we should probably lose to N.O. Otherwise we'd be looking at a Portland, L.A. (with no home court) route. Yes, I'm assuming L.A. beats Sacramento.

41mvp · 04-12-2011, 07:57 AM

San Antonio must win against LA!!!

Just211 · 04-12-2011, 09:45 AM

the way i see it is we want to lose and okc win.. I really dont care who we play first round. If we cant win that, it doesnt really matter anyways. But I would like two other teams to have a shot at the Lakers before we would. They are light years beyond Dallas mentally, and I think if we beat Portland and San Antonio to get to LA, we would have to be playing great ball, and have some confidence heading into a showdown.

Just211 · 04-12-2011, 09:46 AM

or us 2 and LA 4, but that wont happen