FINAL GDT game 82 - Mavs (32-49) at Grizz (43-38) 7:00 FSSW

[EricaLubarsky]

Maybe we're planning on giving them a few good comeback? Throw it away three times?

[Underdog]

[turin]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

We have to root for the pelicans to beat Blazers or Kings to beat Clippers LOL

I'm not rooting for chit. After this big arse clustrpuck, I'm done with NBA basketball until the fall!

[Melonhead]

Cuban does not look happy

[turin]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Yeah Im pissed right now. To sit through this shit season and they cant lose one more got damn game so we can draft a potential game changing point guard is stunning. All PG prospects will definitely be gone at 10

+100

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

What a sorry end to an even worse season.

This team can't even lose right.

[Underdog]

[EricaLubarsky]

Next season we suck

[Bryan_Wilson]

I need alcohol.

A shit ton of it.

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[EricaLubarsky]

Silver: With the ninth pick, the Pelicans select Dennis Smith Jr.
Silver: with the tenth pick-- I have a trade to announce. The Mavericks trade the rights to the tenth pick for the 26th pick and a future second."

[tap2390]

Soooo should I start a 2018 draft thread?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Soooo should I start a 2018 draft thread?

Don't bother. Mavs will trade their 2018 first rounder for Wade. They'll say they're doing it to "win now"

[mac222b]

Not tanking the Bucks game. First game after we'd been eliminated. It's on Rick and the MBT for not being on the same page. Or not even having a page to be on, perhaps?

This is what happens when the hierarchy isn't delineated clearly in an organization. You get Shane Larkins and Pick 10 instead of 7.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

We have the fucking 10th pick? You're kidding me right? What a fucking failure shit show of a season.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

We have the fucking 10th pick? You're kidding me right? What a fucking failure shit show of a season.

We can pray that the Brow and Boogie pull their game out

Oh who am I kidding-- were 10

[Melonhead]

Pelicans are playing with our heart strings right now. Will lose by 3 or so

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

We can pray that the Brow and Boogie pull their game out

Oh who am I kidding-- were 10

Well at least there is some sort of chance. Otherwise, it's a coin toss from what I understand?

Honestly, I think it's just the fact that the Mavs are likely to be bad for a long time. Going to be a sucky rebuild.

[Fragism]

Naturally the Trail Blazers shoot an insane percentage in a game we need them to lose.

This team is fucking cursed

[Melonhead]

Pels up with 4 left LOLOLOL

EDIT: With 2:28 left LOL

[Melonhead]

Watching now...up 3 with 2:02 left

[Melonhead]

up 1 with 1:20

[Fragism]

COME ON PELICANS don't fuck this up!

[Melonhead]

Portland turns it over with 10 sec left...Pels up 1

[EricaLubarsky]

Whoa

[EricaLubarsky]

My boy Quin Cook sinking them FTs

[Melonhead]

Portland fouls with 6.1 left...

Guess whos shooting the FTs-QUINN COOK LOL

Sinks both!

[Melonhead]

Terry Scotts trying to scheme up somethin...

[Underdog]

LOL, Quinn Cook played for Dallas a couple months ago -- looks like he came through for us in the end by hitting that pair of FTs...

[Melonhead]

Whew boyssss we're back!!!

[Underdog]

We're #9! We're #9!

Could've snagged #8 if we lost though...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

It would've been 8.5 though if we lost? The lottery stuff still confuses me.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It would've been 8.5 though if we lost? The lottery stuff still confuses me.

Yeah, being a loser is a lot harder than everyone makes it seem...

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

It would've been 8.5 though if we lost? The lottery stuff still confuses me.

The real swing tonight was 8-5 to 9.5, because Wolves and Kings lost.

How the draft works
There are only 14 balls, but they select 4 balls, one at a time. Order doesn't matter. Out of those there are 1,001 possible results. One gets thrown out and they re-draw if it ever happens so they end up with 1,000 equally likely combinations.

On the other end, teams are assigned ball combinations (1-2-3-4) to (11-12-13-14) which function like lottery tickets. The teams are all given a number of lottery tickets based on their seed. 1st doesn't get more balls-- it gets a larger number of the 1,000 lottery tickets (250 different ball combinations drawn win them the first pick). For example, 1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-5, 1-2-3-6 and the lower the team the more combinations they're assigned.

Sole 8th seed gets assigned 28 lottery tickets (2.8% chance of first, etc)
Sole 9th seed gets assigned 17 of the 1,000 lottery tickets (1.7% chance of first)
If a team doesn't win a top 3, then they just go in order after the first three picks are chosen so if 1,2,3 are picked 1,2,3 then 4 drafts 4th and 9 drafts 9th.

The impact of our win last night
So what is 8.5? There are two elements.

1) The Lottery - If we lost and tied the kings, we would have had them combine 8 and 9's combos (28 + 17) and divide by two (45/2). Since the result is 22.5, they'd flip a coin and either the Kings or Mavs would have gotten 23 (2.3% at 1st) and the other 22 (2.2% chance). In other words, our win tonight cost us either 5 or 6 combinations/lottery tickets (17 instead of 22 or 23)-- 0.5% or 0.6% chance of a first overall (6/1,000). However, lottery tickets only affect the top 3. After that the teams just go in order which means...

2) The non-lottery - After the top three, they just go in order of record. Two teams can't obviously just draft 8th, so the NBA flips a coin. The winner drafts 8th. The loser drafts 9th.

In Summary we lost a 1% chance at a top 3, and a 50% chance of stealing the 8th pick by winning last night. (6% chance of top 3 instead of 5% and we lost a 47.5% chance of stealing 8th. {95% of getting a 50% coin flip})

The impact of the Pelicans' win last night
On the other hand.

Sole 10th seed gets 11 balls.
If pelicans had won we'd split 9/10. 11+17=28 so we'd each get 14 with no coin flip, because the balls can be divided evenly. By winning last night, they lost 3 tickets to the lottery and we gained three tickets to the lottery. In addition, in the 96% chance that the Pelicans don't win the lottery, they also lost the 50% chance of stealing the 9th pick.

Confounding variables
It's very likely that the top three teams win the top three picks, but it's not guaranteed.

So what happens if someone after us (10-14) wins a spot in the lottery? There's a combined 12.2% chance that one of those five teams jumping into the top 3. There's a 0.4% chance that two of those teams leapfrogs us. In that case, we'd still go in order, but we'd draft later (14th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th would actually having us draft 10th).

Our odds overall now
1st overall - 1.7% (First draw of four balls, they draw one of the 17 out of 1,000 combinations assigned to us)
2nd overall - 2.0%
3rd overall - 2.4%
4th overall - Impossible
5th overall- Impossible
6th overall - Impossible
7th overall - Impossible
8th overall - Impossible
9th overall - 81.3% chance
10th overall - 12.2% chance (happens if a team 10-14 wins a top three)
11th overall - 0.4% chance (happens if two teams 10-14 both win a top three)
12th overall - 0.01% chance (happens if three of the five teams behind us all win a top three
13th overall - Impossible
14th overall - Impossible

6.1% we draft top 3
81.3% chance of 9th
12.7% chance we get leap-frogged by a 10-14 team

[BPo001]

Thanks for the explanation, Erica. Let's get that top 3 pick!

[BigDog63]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Thanks for the explanation, Erica. Let's get that top 3 pick!

Mavs are due for some luck. And their getting into top 3 would be good for NBA, so.....

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Well-done Erica. I think the entirety of the CBA is less convoluted than the draft lottery.

[rimrocker]

I liked the NBA draft better when they just pulled the envelopes from the hopper.
That would cure all of this tanking nonsense.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

The real swing tonight was 8-5 to 9.5, because Wolves and Kings lost.

How the draft works
There are only 14 balls, but they select 4 balls, one at a time. Order doesn't matter. Out of those there are 1,001 possible results. One gets thrown out and they re-draw if it ever happens so they end up with 1,000 equally likely combinations.

On the other end, teams are assigned ball combinations (1-2-3-4) to (11-12-13-14) which function like lottery tickets. The teams are all given a number of lottery tickets based on their seed. 1st doesn't get more balls-- it gets a larger number of the 1,000 lottery tickets (250 different ball combinations drawn win them the first pick). For example, 1-2-3-4, 1-2-3-5, 1-2-3-6 and the lower the team the more combinations they're assigned.

Sole 8th seed gets assigned 28 lottery tickets (2.8% chance of first, etc)
Sole 9th seed gets assigned 17 of the 1,000 lottery tickets (1.7% chance of first)
If a team doesn't win a top 3, then they just go in order after the first three picks are chosen so if 1,2,3 are picked 1,2,3 then 4 drafts 4th and 9 drafts 9th.

The impact of our win last night
So what is 8.5? There are two elements.

1) The Lottery - If we lost and tied the kings, we would have had them combine 8 and 9's combos (28 + 17) and divide by two (45/2). Since the result is 22.5, they'd flip a coin and either the Kings or Mavs would have gotten 23 (2.3% at 1st) and the other 22 (2.2% chance). In other words, our win tonight cost us either 5 or 6 combinations/lottery tickets (17 instead of 22 or 23)-- 0.5% or 0.6% chance of a first overall (6/1,000). However, lottery tickets only affect the top 3. After that the teams just go in order which means...

2) The non-lottery - Two teams can't obviously just draft 8th, so the NBA flips a coin. The winner drafts 8th. The loser drafts 9th.

In Summary we lost a 1% chance at a top 3, and a 50% chance of stealing the 8th pick by winning last night.

The impact of the Pelicans' win last night
On the other hand.

Sole 10th seed gets 11 balls.
If pelicans had won we'd split 9/10. 11+17=28 so we'd each get 14 with no coin flip, because the balls can be divided evenly. By winning last night, they lost 3 tickets to the lottery and we gained three tickets to the lottery. In addition, in the 96% chance that the Pelicans don't win the lottery, they also lost the 50% chance of stealing the 9th pick.

Confounding variables
It's very likely that the top three teams win the top three picks, but it's not guaranteed.

So what happens if someone after us (10-14) wins a spot in the lottery? There's a combined 12.2% chance that one of those five teams jumping into the top 3. There's a 0.4% chance that two of those teams leapfrogs us. In that case, we'd still go in order, but we'd draft later (14th, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th would actually having us draft 10th).

Our odds overall now
1st overall - 1.7% (17 of 1,000)
2nd overall - 2.0%
3rd overall - 2.4%
4th overall - Impossible
5th overall- Impossible
6th overall - Impossible
7th overall - Impossible
8th overall - Impossible
9th overall - 81.3% chance
10th overall - 12.2% chance (happens if a team 10-14 wins a top three)
11th overall - 0.4% chance (happens if two teams 10-14 both win a top three)
12th overall - 0.01% chance (happens if three of the five teams behind us all win a top three
13th overall - Impossible
14th overall - Impossible

6.1% we draft top 3
81.3% chance of 9th
12.7% chance we get leap-frogged by a 10-14 team

If I understand this right, even if we had lost yesterday we would've still had a 50% chance to draft in the same spot we will likely be drafting from now, correct? It was 8 or 9 vs definitely 9, correct? The only way losing would've helped us is if the coin flip fell our way, correct?

Of course you should give your team that opportunity, but it's an unknown vs. clearly moving a spot down in the draft due to winning an otherwise completely meaningless game, correct?

[EricaLubarsky]

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by Male30Dan

If I understand this right, even if we had lost yesterday we would've still had a 50% chance to draft in the same spot we will likely be drafting from now, correct? It was 8 or 9 vs definitely 9, correct? The only way losing would've helped us is if the coin flip fell our way, correct?

Of course you should give your team that opportunity, but it's an unknown vs. clearly moving a spot down in the draft due to winning an otherwise completely meaningless game, correct?

Winning + Pels losing wouldve given us 50% chance of 9 and 50% chance of 10. Luckily Pels winning kept us at definitely 9.