Texas Rangers Hot Stove Thread

[sike]

Originally Posted by Lwin

Interesting in that our rotation is all right handed.

true....lefties aiming at that porch have little to fear...but I'll take quality pitching anyday...and that is what John Daniels is going for...

[TomThaMavsFan]

oh man what a great signing by the Rangers, Finally they're going after pitching and getting it done. JD is really stepping up to the plate showing why the rangers chose him to take on such a huge responsibilty at such a young age. IF the Rangers can somehow add Clemens to this rotation, it will be one of the best offseasons the Rangers have had in a long long time.

[sike]

Originally Posted by TomThaMavsFan

IF the Rangers can somehow add Clemens to this rotation, it will be one of the best offseasons the Rangers have had in a long long time.

how about ever?

[Murphy3]

...Well, didn't they add Palmeiro, Franco, and Ryan in the same year?...along with Moyer. Plus, it was Kevin Brown's first year as a Ranger...also, Dean Palmer, Juan Gonzalez, and Sammy Sosa all made their major league debuts with the Rangers. I don't know if a better class of sluggers has ever come up to make their major league debut from the minors in one season as that trio.

[Just211]

I'm interested in how ya'll think Loe will do as a permanent starter?
everyone has him penciled in at #4, but do ya'll think he'll stay there, or melt away like every other young pitcher that was in the Opening day rotation recently

[Murphy3]

Loe has something that most of the younger pitching prospects haven't had in awhile... a plus pitch.

[ames7]

I really loved how much he pushed to be a starter last year. I think he'll be a solid starter... he might struggle some, but I think he has a really good make-up. He's always surprised people by succeeding, I don't see why he can't keep doing it.

[Drbio]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Loe has something that most of the younger pitching prospects haven't had in awhile... a plus pitch.

Agreed. And unlike Young he has not faded late in the year. That's not a Young bash, just a widely reported point of info.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Drbio

Agreed. And unlike Young he has not faded late in the year. That's not a Young bash, just a widely reported point of info.

I'm a Loe fan myself, but that's hardly a fair comparison. Loe pitched all of 92 innings last year, and didn't become a starting pitcher until quite late in the season.

Young pitched 165 innings, which was far more than he'd ever pitched as a professional, and a fade like his is not that uncommon among rookie pitchers.

[Murphy3]

Ames is right. Loe WANTS to be a starter. He wants the ball every 5th day. That's the main thing that separates him and Benoit. Both have good stuff (with benoit probably having better), but Benoit wants to be in the pen and Loe wants to be a starter. He feels most comfortable there.

[Drbio]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I'm a Loe fan myself, but that's hardly a fair comparison. Loe pitched all of 92 innings last year, and didn't become a starting pitcher until quite late in the season.

Young pitched 165 innings, which was far more than he'd ever pitched as a professional, and a fade like his is not that uncommon among rookie pitchers.

You are really trying hard to convince yourself that Young was a huge loss. Too hard actually. It's ok...we got Eaton to fill in.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Drbio

You are really trying hard to convince yourself that Young was a huge loss. Too hard actually. It's ok...we got Eaton to fill in.

LOL. Here we go again.

Seriously though, that's a terrible comparison. Loe could very easily start to fade this year as he reaches HIS highmark for innings pitched in a season, and it wouldn't mean he'll do it every year, and it won't mean he's no longer a good prospect.

[dalmations202]

I don't know how it will play out, but I believe the Rangers have finally put themselves in contention.

Many thanks to Daniels and Hicks.. I have been hard on them since PayRod, Palmerio, and Pudge ---- but they are finally coming through.

Thanks.

[Drbio]

The Rangers are clearly better today than they were a couple of weeks ago.

thiggy- I thought you might enjoy that.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Drbio

The Rangers are clearly better today than they were a couple of weeks ago.

thiggy- I thought you might enjoy that.

That I can agree with.

[LonestarROB]

Garland signed 3 year extension with Sox. That pretty much puts an end to those trade rumors.

[Drbio]

For those wanting left handed help.....it might come about the time Roger Clemens does.....

Though the Royals would have liked to re-sign Brian Anderson and have him possibly join the team midseason when he recovers from elbow surgery, the 33-year-old left-hander is instead expected to sign with Texas.
-- Kansas City Star

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by Drbio

For those wanting left handed help.....it might come about the time Roger Clemens does.....

Though the Royals would have liked to re-sign Brian Anderson and have him possibly join the team midseason when he recovers from elbow surgery, the 33-year-old left-hander is instead expected to sign with Texas.
-- Kansas City Star

I guess this guy can provide insurance if 3 out of 5 starters are injured or something, but other than that, this signing means he will be spending some time on the farm. That elbow surgery mentioned in the article above was the scary Tommy John surgery and he will likely never be as good as he once was, (which was only average anyway).

I do wish we had a couple of lefty starters in our rotation though... Team managers will have little changes to make against us over a 3 or 4 game series... Eh well, as long as our guys pitch smart, it really doesn't matter!

[dalmations202]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I wouldnt touch Millwood with a 10 foot poll for what he will get paid. Being under budget is a good thing. It allows you to take on money in trades without giving up as much talent. As mavs fans we saw that you can signifigantly improve your talent if you are willing to take on more money in trades.

I am so happy that the Rangers didn't feel this way this time. Millwood has been a horse. The Rangers direly need starting pitching.

With that said, would you trade Texeria ( & minor leaguers) to Oakland for Zito, a reliever, and the best pitching prospect in their minor league system?

[TomThaMavsFan]

Originally Posted by dalmations202

I am so happy that the Rangers didn't feel this way this time. Millwood has been a horse. The Rangers direly need starting pitching.

With that said, would you trade Texeria ( & minor leaguers) to Oakland for Zito, a reliever, and the best pitching prospect in their minor league system?

i wouldn't do that trade, Zito is an exceptional talent, but giving oakland texiera improves the A's alot more than Zito would improve the Rangers. In whats expected to be close AL west, only way i do Zito/ relief pitching for Texiera is if there's a third team involved who isn't in the AL west.

[Murphy3]

Actually, alot of people return quite well from TJ surgery.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Actually, alot of people return quite well from TJ surgery.

Yup... Might as well be hang nail surgery!!! He has nothing to worry about.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Male23Dan

Yup... Might as well be hang nail surgery!!! He has nothing to worry about.

Well...Murph IS right. TJ surgery is very common now. It still takes quite a while to recover from, but the percentage of people overcoming TJ surgery is very, very high right now.

[Five-ofan]

Since I was on record as not wanting KM for the money I will say this. Hate the money. Love the pitcher. Best pitcher the mavs have had in a while and would much rather have him than burnett. To the Tex for zito thing, a RESOUNDING, HELL NO. Johan Santana? Yes. Hate it but yes. Peavy? Yes, Hate it more but yes. Willis? Yeah. Really Hate it but yeah. Barry Zito??? Hell no.

[Drbio]

As expected.....from Newberg....

Veteran lefthander Brian Anderson has signed a minor league deal with Texas
that has attached to it a spring training invite, but the 33-year-old is
rehabilitating from July Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to be a factor
at the beginning of the season. Armed with a career record of 82-83, 4.74,
Anderson is a solid, low-risk, low-expectations signing.

[MFFL]

Originally Posted by Drbio

The Texas Rangers have helped address their pitching woes by reaching agreement to acquire San Diego Padres right-handed pitchers Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka and a minor league prospect in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chris Young, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and outfielder Terrmel Sledge.

The deal is STILL not finished. I wonder what the hold up is?

[Drbio]

The kid from Japan is actually IN Japan and has not been able to come to Texas yet for a physical. It is my understanding that the Rangers were prepared for this and are not concerned.

[MFFL]

Aren't there doctors in Japan who could take the MRIs necessary? The Ranger doctor could even have the video tape of the physical sent to him to examine at his leisure.

A little too bizarre if you ask me - the other players involved in the trade are unfairly in limbo while this slowly drags out.

[Drbio]

I understand but it is done this way at least once every year it seems. I'm not too worried. Worse thing that can happen is a rescinded trade and we get to keep Young and the other guys. More trades could be made. I still like Young, but I think Eaton is an upgrade. I'd be surprised if the Rangers cancelled the trade even if the Japanese guy had a problematic physical.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Drbio

I understand but it is done this way at least once every year it seems. I'm not too worried. Worse thing that can happen is a rescinded trade and we get to keep Young and the other guys. More trades could be made. I still like Young, but I think Eaton is an upgrade. I'd be surprised if the Rangers cancelled the trade even if the Japanese guy had a problematic physical.

I would say, if Otsuka's physical was a problem, this trade would be cancelled faster than you could imagine. As many people, including Jamey, have pointed out, it's entirely possible that Otsuka was in fact the center piece of this deal. It certainly makes more sense that way, since he is locked up long term and is an actual upgrade over what we had, while Eaton is neither of those things.

It also makes sense when you remember that it has been widely reported that the Rangers turned down Laird and Gonzalez for Eaton earlier in the offseason. I think the Rangers view Otsuka as the key to this deal.

[Drbio]

Maybe so....if the deal unravels and the trade is rescinded it still isn't devastating though, even though we all know Eaton > Young.

[jthig32]

And my last glimmer of hope dies...from Newberg:

The Rangers have announced that their six-player trade with San Diego has
been finalized. Texas gets righthanders Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka and
catcher Billy Killian, sending righthander Chris Young, first baseman Adrian
Gonzalez, and outfielder Terrmel Sledge to the Padres.

[Drbio]

An obviously genius trade.

[Drbio]

Courtesy of Mike Hindman of the Newbergreport. He provides a review of the top 10 pitching prospects in the Rangers system....enjoy.



10. Zach Phillips (LH; 19 years old; .260 / .315 / .405 @ Rookie Arizona; 23rd round DFE from 2004 draft)
I gotta be honest. I know next to nothing about this kid. I’m just reading stats and tea leaves. I haven’t seen him pitch and I’ve spoken to just two people who have. Neither was able to tell me much other than to say that they think a lot of him.

Phillips was selected as a DFE out of a Sacramento high school in the 23rd round of the 2004 draft, they watched him for a year at Sacramento City College for a year and signed him for tenth round money ($200K) days before the 2005 draft, when they would have lost their rights to sign him. By the end of June, things did not look good at all. Phillips suffered massive beatings in his first two pro appearances, allowing two runs on three hits in two-thirds of an inning and then getting pounded by the! Royals for eight runs on ten hits in an inning and two-thirds on June 28.

The first sign that there was something brewing with Phillips was on July 3 when, on the strength of that flogging by the Royals, he moved from the Rangers bullpen to their rotation. And he was outstanding from that point forward, posting a 2.25 ERA and holding the league to a .178 average the rest of the way. Overall, Phillips fanned 73 and walked just 13 in 50.1 innings, coaxing 2.04 ground ball outs for every fly out, and earned a late-season promotion to Clinton where he made two appearances, one good and one not so much.

I’ve heard very good things about his 90ish fastball from several sources and according to Dom Chiti, hitters "really have a hard time seeing the ball off him. He's got the makings of a great curveball and a decent changeup."
2006 Projection: It appears that Phillips was the buzz in Surprise this fall, muc! h like Edison Volquez and Scott Feldman were the year before. Expect him to jump to Clinton and spend the whole year there.

_________________________________________
9. Armando Galarraga (RH; 24 years old; .228 / .304 / .368 @ High-A Potomac; .275 / .329 / .464 @ Double-A Harrisburg; signed as free agent in Venezuela in October 1998)
Among the relatively few things we learned about Armando Antonio Barreto Galarraga immediately after he was acquired in the December Alfonso Soriano trade was that he missed the better part of two season with Tommy John ligament replacement surgery. This raises the question, of course, of whether the tall, lanky Venezuelan can be a durable, reliable starter in the long run. If the last 12 months are any indication, then the answer is clearly yes.

Galarraga, who Baseball America ranked as the fifth best prospect in the N! ationals system at the time of the trade, logged 156.1 innings between two levels of minor league ball last summer before going home to Venezuela where he has thrown another 60 (3.10 ERA). I don’t know if there will be anything left of the kid when he gets to Surprise, or if Rangers officials are happy with the workload that has been hoisted upon him this winter, but the kid can and will take the ball.

Like Danks, Diamond and Volquez, Galarraga split his 2005 season between high A and double A and his results were similar to the Texas trio’s. Galarraga went 3-4 with a 2.48 ERA, fanning 79 while walking 22 in 80 Carolina League innings, holding the league to a .228 average. He led the league in whiffs before his promotion to the double-A Eastern League where he went 3-4 with a 5.19 ERA, setting 58 down on strikes while issuing 21 freebies in 76.1 innings. In both stops, he was quite a bit better against right-handers and in both stops, he posted a G/F s! lightly above 1.00 against lefties and slightly below 1.00 against right-handers.

After getting off to a very hot start in the Eastern League (1.29 ERA through his first 28 innings, including a complete game, three-hit shutout), he cooled off a bit in August and his final double-A ERA is skewed by two horrible efforts (eight runs on a dozen hits in five innings on July 30 and eleven runs on ten hits in 3.1 innings on August 20).
Galarraga, who turns 24 next week, is by all accounts a very aggressive pitcher ("shows a mean streak" according to Baseball America) who features a sinking 92-94 mph fastball and a mid-to-high 80's slider, both of which are considered plus offerings. The word "effortless" comes up in nearly all descriptions of Galarraga’s delivery. As his splits would indicate, his changeup lags significantly behind his other two offerings. Whether he can develop it (reports indicate he needs to improve his arm speed on t! he change), will determine whether he can make it as a starter or not.

But even without the development of his off speed pitch, one AL scout (who thought that getting Galarraga thrown into the back end of the Soriano - Wilkerson deal made it an absolute steal for the Rangers) tells us that he sees Galarraga as having the stuff and makeup to be a dominant setup guy and maybe even a closer in the near future.
Carolina League managers ranked Galarraga as the circuit’s seventh best prospect (right behind Jeremy Sowers) and BA’s Chris Kline has described him as belonging in a group with the likes of Sowers, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez, and Adam Miller.

Along with Sanchez, Galarraga made the best impression at last summer’s Cal League / Carolina League All-Star Game. "I like him," one scout told BA after seeing Galarraga fan the last two hitters he saw, one of them on a wicked 86 mph slider. "He has a good ! plan for attacking hitters. This is a game where you generally see pitchers go right after guys--if they don’t, it says something about the makeup. He went right after guys with no fear. He’s got a nice, easy arm action, very smooth, very fluid--just effortless."
2006 Projection: Galarraga figures to return to double-A where could join one of the most daunting, prospect-laden rotations in baseball. Obviously, the progress he makes with his change will be closely watched. I expect one of two things will happen to him next year: he’ll either develop a solid changeup and become a very dominant pitcher or he’ll continue to struggle against lefties and move to the pen which, in the end, could be his fastest path to the big leagues.
_______________________________________
8. John Hudgins (RH; 24 years old; .231 / .333 / .308 @ Double-A Frisco; .305 / .364 / .456 @ Triple-A Oklahoma; 3rd Round 2003 draft)
If you just look at John Hudgins’ final 2005 Oklahoma line, you might jump to the conclusion that he was simply overmatched in the PCL. But I’m convinced that you would be wrong if you did. He’s going to be back, and he’s going to be as good as he’s always been.

Hudgins entered professional baseball coming off of one of the more heroic efforts in College World Series history, and after a truncated first professional season, Hudgins soared through the Cal League before making a seamless transition to Double-A ball.
That last statement shouldn’t be taken lightly. Even the very best prospects in the game almost invariably struggle (at least relatively so) making the transition from A ball to Double A. King Felix Hernandez, the Mariners’ prized teenaged phenom, went 9-3 with a 2.74 ERA in the Cal League in 2004 while Hudgins went 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA. In his first month as a Texas Leaguer, Hernandez w! ent 2-1 / 4.05 and the league hit him at a .248 clip. Meanwhile, Hudgins went 2-2 / 2.45 and held the league to a .203 average through his first six Texas League starts.

Hudgins figured to start the 2005 season in the Oklahoma rotation, but as spring training drew to a close, there were rumblings that he would return to Frisco, where he wouldn’t even have a spot in the rotation. One source told us that they were contemplating grooming him for an R.A.. Dickey-style long man role. At the 11th hour, however, Hudgins was named the opening day starter for the RoughRiders and landed in the Oklahoma rotation after three solid Texas League starts.

What is easily forgotten in light of his final numbers is that Hudgins was outstanding early on for the RedHawks, posting a 2.88 ERA in six May starts, but he struggled in five June starts (7.33) and was even worse in July (8.80 in six starts). Hudgins had been pitching in pai! n all year, his elbow and forearm filling up as each start wore on.

By the end of July, it was clear that there was no point in going further and he was shut down for the season. Ultimately, doctors found a calcium deposit growing in Hudgins’ elbow that had been grinding on the soft tissues and he underwent minor surgery to correct the problem in August. He’s throwing once again and feeling fine. Given his strong start in 2005, it seems very reasonable to draw a straight line between the calcium deposit and his decline as the season wore on.

In an attempt to cure his most glaring shortcoming as a pitcher–a propensity to surrender the long ball–Hudgins spent the 2004-2005 off season working on a two-seamer and a splitter to add to his fastball, change, curve combo. In 2004, Hudgins yielded a dozen yard balls in 69 Texas League innings. In 2005, however, through his first 75 innings in Oklahoma, Hudgins surrendered just! five dingers, so he was clearly making vast improvement in that area before injury struck. Nonetheless, he posted a sub-1.00 G/F ratio and his K/BB and K/9 rates fell off.

Like a certain former Rangers pitching coach, Hudgins is simultaneously bulldog tough and cerebral (I don’t think that there is a more pronounced example of a Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde in the system: it’s difficult to believe that the intense competitor you see on the mound is the same mild-mannered, unassuming John Hudgins you see in street clothes). He has a voracious appetite for information and keeps his own books on opposing hitters.

At his best, Hudgins out thinks hitters and locates pitches perhaps better than any other pitcher in the system. Aside from his outstanding change, he doesn’t possess plus stuff, but his intelligence, attitude and approach should allow him to overcome his allegedly pedestrian assortment.
2006 Proj! ection: Assuming he comes back from surgery 100%, as is expected, Hudgins will eventually get a shot at a big league rotation. It might not be this year and it might not be in Texas, but there is so much right with John Hudgins that what little is wrong with him should be surmountable. Look for him in the OKC rotation. Hudgins is a legitimate sleeper.
_________________________________________
7. Michael Schlact (RH; 20 years old; .280 / .325 / .402 @ Low-A Clinton; 3rd round 2004)
Other than the fact that the kid is a horse, makes every start, goes deep every time, wins, throws strikes, induces grounders by the bushel, keeps the ball in the yard, improves by leaps and bounds each month, is still very projectable, continues to increase his velocity, has added two new pitches since turning pro, is smart, fearless, a hard worker and is basically a baseball rat, there’s really not much to like a! bout Michael Schlact.

You get my point: this kid has a lot going for him. But from that long list of assets, the one which really gets my attention is the way that Schlact constantly improves. Like Kameron Loe as that tall righty climbed the ladder, Schlact has seen steady, uninterrupted improvement throughout his career. By one standard, you can trace this trend back to Schlact’s prep career when he entered his senior season as Baseball America’s #48 high school prospect and had climbed to #26 by the time mid-season rankings came out (he was #23 according to another source).

Skipping short-season Spokane, Schlact was assigned to low-A Clinton and, along with rotation-mates Eric Hurley and Kyle Rogers, was one of the youngest starters in the league. All he did was lead the league in innings pitched and starts, finish the league’s ninth highest win total, and finish 18th in the ERA standings. But the ! best news was the way he improved every month.

If you are going to take a high school pitcher because he is "projectable" then this is a pretty nice thing to see after his first full season of professional baseball:

APRIL: 4.22 ERA
MAY: 5.50 ERA
JUNE: 4.30 ERA
JULY: 3.57 ERA
AUGUST: 2.79 ERA

Schlact also cut about thirty five points off of his opponent’s batting average in August while improving his K / BB ratio.

This brings us to the chink in Schlact’s armor: he did not rack up the K’s like an elite prospect, but that is pretty typical for an extreme ground ball pitcher like Schlact, whose G / F ratio was an impressive 2.05 (for point of reference, realize that only seven big leaguers topped 2.00 in 2005). Most of the top ground ball arms in the big leagues average K/9 ratios similar to Schlact’s 4.81. Mark Mul! der had a G / F of 2.74 and a K / 9 of 4.87. Jake Westbrook was 3.13 / 5.08; Tim Hudson was 2.50 / 5.39. Derek Lowe was 2.92 / 5.92. Nonetheless, you’d like to see Schlact miss some more bats as he continues to mature

The 6'8" Schlact came into professional baseball throwing an 87-89 mph four-seam fastball that now reaches 93 and sits at 90-91. Since turning pro, he has added a slider and a two-seam sinker which is now probably his best pitch. His changeup has such excellent sink that it is often mistaken for a splitter (this was also true in high school; pre-draft reports spoke of a splitter which he’s never thrown). Schlact is very high on a slider that Dom Chiti and Stan Hilton helped him develop and has scrapped his curve for now.

Schlact has altered his delivery since joining the Rangers organization, going to a full windup and he throws on a downhill plane from a high three-quarters slot. For a big kid, Schlact repea! ts his delivery well as his excellent control would suggest. We don’t have access to pitch counts, but you can be sure that Schlact pounds the zone as he consistently took the LumberKings into the seventh inning all year long.

He receives rave reviews for his intelligence and makeup, he’s a passionate student of the game, and keeps his own books on hitters (which, though encouraged, is not mandatory and something which few minor league pitchers actually do).

At this point, you have to figure that getting Schlact in the third round was a tremendous value as he has kept pace with the six high school pitchers taken in the first round of the 2004 draft. As rookies that year, Schlact went 1-1, 3.52 in ten appearances spanning 30.2 AZL frames, fanning 22 and walking nine. Milwaukee’s Mark Rogers, #5 overall choice, went 0-3; 4.73 in six rookie league appearances; Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey, the #7 selection overall went 0-1; ! 4.38 in six rookie league appearances; and the Dodgers’ Scott Elbert, taken #17 overall went 2-3; 5.26 in 12 rookie league appearances.

In 2005, Schlact once again kept pace with that group of 2004 first rounders. Rogers (#5 / Brewers) went 2-9; 5.11 at low A West Virginia (109 K’s & 70 BB’s in 98.2 IP); Bailey (#8 / Reds) 6-4; 4.60 at low A Dayton (125 K’s & 62 BB’s in 103.2 IP); Elbert (#17 / Dodgers) went 8-5; 2.66 at low A Columbus (128 K’s & 57 BB’s in 115 IP); Philip Hughes (#23 / Yankees) 7-1; 1.97 at low A Charleston (72 K’s & 16 BB’s in 68.2 IP) and 2-0; 3.06 at high A Tampa (21 K’s & 4 BB’s in 17.2 IP; .140 BAA); Kyle Waldrop (#25 / Twins) went 6-11; 4.98 at low A Beloit (108 K’s & 23 BB’s in 151.1 IP) and teammate Eric Hurley (#30 / Rangers) went 11-5; 3.67 at low A Clinton (152 K’s & 59 BB’s in 155.1 IP). Schlact, selected #81 overa! ll, went 10-7; 4.17 at low A Clinton (90 K’s & 37 BB’s in 168.1 IP).
2006 Projection: Schlact will once again be among the youngest pitchers in his league when he opens the season at Bakersfield where he should spend most, if not all of the season. The Rangers don’t need to rush this young man. The California League is notoriously friendly to hitters, so don’t be surprised if Schlact’s numbers decline a bit and pay less attention to how he starts the year than to how he finishes it. What Schlact proved last year by making consistent, steady improvement all season is that his ability to learn and adjust outpaces hitters’ ability to figure him out and that is a very good sign indeed.
_______________________________________
6. Eric Hurley (RH; 20 years old; .234 / .310 / .373 @ Low-A Clinton; 1st round 2004)
He couldn’t have come out of the gate any better in 2005. Eric Hurley’! s first month in the low-A Midwest League was–there’s no other words for it–utterly dominant. The 6'4" right-hander opened up 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, fanning 29 and walking just five in 27 innings while holding the league’s hitters to a .214 average.

Even though he was just 19 years old, at the end of that amazing first month of full-season ball, you would have bet that the league couldn’t possibly hold him all year and that he’d reach Bakersfield, if not blow right through town, by July, but it didn’t happen, and that may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
In spite of the fact that Hurley demonstrated dominance in the MWL (posting a K/9 right at 9.00 almost every month), he’s still a work in progress and it’s clear that, as good as he is now, there is a lot of room for improvement. Patience should pay off in the long run.

Hurley regressed terribly in May, seeing his ERA spike up to 5.08 for the month and t! he league improved its batting average against him by forty points, though he still averaged better than a strikeout per inning. In June, he K/9 fell below 9.00 (7.33) for the first time in his life a he posted a 4.70 ERA and his K/BB ratio fell to just slightly better than 2.00. He rebounded across the board in July before declining again in August.

Hurley was regarded as a mid-to-late first round talent coming out of a Jacksonville, Florida high school in 2004 and the Rangers were probably stunned that he was still available when their second first round pick at number 30 overall came up. He had posted a 13-1 record and a 0.70 ERA, with 139 whiffs and just 11 walks in 90 innings relying almost exclusively on his plus fastball which sat at 95 mph at the end of his prep career. He came into the fold with that big heater, a developing slider and iffy mechanics.

Since then, he has refined the slider, added a changeup and c! leaned up his mechanics to an extent, but he still has a very violent looking delivery that includes a pronounced head-jerk and makes it seem as if he throws with maximum effort. But scouts say he has a very loose arm and nothing in his numbers suggests that he is wearing himself out. He was second in the league (behind teammate Michael Schlact) in innings pitched, went into the seventh inning in seven of his 28 starts, and generally finished strong (2.74 ERA in the fifth inning; 1.84 in the sixth). He is also nearly as effective against lefties (.244 average against; 4.05 ERA; 53 K’s in 53.1 IP) as he is against righties (.228 average against; 3.62 ERA; 99 K’s in 102 IP). In these ways, Hurley certainly projects as a legitimate starter prospect in the long run. However, unless he can turn one if not both of his secondary pitches into at least average offerings, he could ultimately be headed for the bullpen where his extraordinary fastball would make him a very interesting component.!

Hurley, who ultimately led the MWL in whiffs with 152 in 155.1 innings, is fairly typical of big strikeout arms in that he is a pronounced fly ball pitcher (0.72 G/F ratio). Mark Prior, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana and Jason Schmidt were all in the top six among qualifying big leaguers in K/9 and all posted G/F rations below 1.00 (an aside–why Hurley is habitually compared to former ground-ball artist Orel Hershiser is beyond me). In spite of Hurley’s propensity to give up the fly, not many of them were big (just 11 dingers surrendered).

Scouts rated Hurley the third best prospect in the 14-team Midwest League. One scout who saw him last year told BA that Hurley was the equal of any pitching prospect he saw in 2005.
2006 Projection: Hurley will take what is probably the second best fastball in the system to Bakersfield where it figures he will be asked to concentrate significantly on refining ! his secondary pitches in anticipation of the big jump to double-A. If Hurley’s slider and change develop, he could become one of the game’s elite pitching prospects. I do not expect the organization to push Hurley and a full season in the Cal League would probably be in his best interests. He’ll have to force his way into a very stout Frisco rotation.
__________________________________________
5. Josh Rupe (RH; 23 years old; .306 / .379 / .485 @ Triple-A Oklahoma; .261 / .341 / .408 @ Double-A Frisco; 2002 3rd Round selection of Chicago White Sox; acquired in Carl Everett trade of 2003)
Somehow lost in all of the discussion about DVD is the fact that, last September the Rangers broke in a guy who could easily seize and hold a spot in their rotation for a dozen years and it’s the guy who new Rangers pitching coach Mark Connor thinks "has probably got the best stuff! of anybody in our organization."

You hear that? The best stuff of anybody in the Rangers organization. Don’t leave him out of the discussion of who will compete for a spot in the back of the Texas rotation this year and don’t underestimate Josh Rupe. Connor certainly doesn’t. I don’t. And most importantly, Rupe doesn’t.

There is no shortage of things to like about Rupe, but if you watch him for very long at all, what jumps to the top of the list is his attitude. It’s perfect. Nobody, and I mean nobody, who has come through the Frisco rotation in the past three years has so clearly thought of himself as a big league bad ass (and I mean that in the best possible way). I don’t know Rupe, but I don’t have to. It’s abundantly clear that Rupe believes in Rupe, and that matters.

If you caught Rupe’s S! eptember big league cameo, you had to like what you saw. His debut, in a sense, was an opportunity for Rupe to turn what might be considered his intra-organization battle for respect and notoriety outward. Facing off against the young man who can legitimately be called the most heralded pitching prospect in all of baseball over the past decade, King Felix Hernandez, the ultra-confident Rupe took the ball and whipped the uber-prospect’s rear end for five innings, allowing two runs on six hits and a walk in five innings of work to earn the win. As he had done in the minors, Rupe induced ground balls at will (11 ground ball outs and one fly out) with his plus sinker and outstanding slider. And he looked and acted liked he belonged. Which he did.

Rupe’s minor league season was uneven. He started off where he left off in 2004, but dominating in Frisco. By the end of April, Rupe led the league with a 1.24 ERA while holding the lea! gue’s hitters to a combined .221 batting average. In May, however, he regressed and his ERA shot up to 5.75 for the month. Nonetheless, he was promoted to Oklahoma where he struggled mightily for a month and a half, his ERA topping 9.00 after eight starts.

Not every kid could have weathered that beating and some suggested that perhaps Rupe would be better served by returning to Frisco, but given Rupe’s attitude and confidence, there was little fear that the experience would damage him and the Rangers, rightly, left him in the PCL to take his lumps with confidence that he would emerge from the school of hard knocks a much better pitcher. Indeed, Rupe learned from the experience and emerged as perhaps the Redhawks’ best starter down the stretch with dominant performances in six of his last nine starts including a seven inning shutout of Memphis that saw him fan nine Redbirds.

In addition to his plus sinker, the athletic, 6'2", 200 lb. Rupe features a standard four-pitch assortment and both of his breaking balls rank among the best in the organization. Connor loves his slider. Former RoughRiders pitching coach Steve Luebber told me that the curve can be so brutal at times that "hitters just give up on it; they don’t even think about swinging."

Perhaps Rupe’s greatest flaw is his over-aggressiveness. He’s sometimes too pumped up and too eager to challenge hitters; he’ll overthrow and forget to trust his very good stuff. I suspect that this was part of his problem in Oklahoma. Through his first seven starts, he surrendered 11 homers. Through his final ten starts, he yielded just one long ball.

In Oklahoma, Rupe posted a G/F ratio of 1.49, in Frisco he was even better, posting an outstanding 2.46 ratio and in his brie! f look with the Rangers, it was an unbelievable 3.20.
2006 Projection: At some point this year, and it might be on opening day, Rupe will find himself in the Rangers rotation. The most likely scenario would seem to have Rupe begin the year in the Oklahoma rotation where he should position himself to be the first or second option to join the big league rotation when the need arises.
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4. Thomas Diamond (RH; 23 y.o.; .191 / .292 / .267 @ High-A Bakersfield; .249 / .347 / .404 @ Double-A Frisco; 1st round selection 2004)
I’ll get to a breakdown of Thomas Diamond’s numbers eventually, but as impressive as they are for the most part, they are ultimately, in my opinion, pretty irrelevant. This is a story of anger management. I think that for Diamond to become the ac! e starter that so many of us feel is within him, he needs to do a much better job of controlling his temper. But I don’t mean that in the way you probably think.

Exhibit A: At the end of May, 2005, two-thirds of the DVD triumvirate–John Danks and Edison Volquez–were promoted from Bakersfield to Frisco. Thomas Diamond, the oldest of the three, was left behind. Diamond was still less than a year removed from having pitched his first game as a pro, and both Danks and Volquez had finished 2004 in the Cal League, so the fact that Diamond didn’t get the call to Frisco had nothing to do with ability or accomplishments. It was simply a matter of time. Diamond, a very bright, mature, level-headed young man said all the right things. But trust me, he was mad. You know how I can tell? He racked up double digit K’s in three of his next four starts including 14 on June 19, when he faced the mini! mum in a complete game, one hit shutout.

When Diamond is mad, he’s nearly unhittable.

More on that:
Exhibit B: That June 19 tour de force got Diamond thrown out of the Cal League for being too nasty, so the Rangers reassigned him to Frisco where he had a very uneven experience, failing to rack up the gaudy strikeout figures that had previously been the hallmark of his pro career, losing some velocity while struggling with mechanics and control. But in late August, he got mad again. Edison Volquez was promoted to the Rangers, and that night Diamond delivered his most dominating performance as a RoughRider, allowing two runs on five hits over seven frames, fanning ten in a 13-2 rout of San Antonio.

Once again: mad equals dominant for T.D.

Exhibit C: Of course, we all remember that old chestnut from fall instructional play in 2004 when the Oakland prospects made the mistake of laughing at Diamond when he fell off the mound on a pickoff attempt only to watch the next three hitters go down on strikes–but not before the first of the three was sent a "message" on the next pitch after the guffawing.

Exhibit D: Diamond was a marginal prospect coming out of high school, and three years later, he was a consensus top-10 draft pick. Diamond’s college coach, Randy Bush, pinpoints what drove Diamond up the draft charts in three years as a matter of locating and channeling his intensity, telling New Orleans Times-Picayune writer Peter Barrouquere that Di! amond unleashed it in the third or fourth game of his sophomore season: "The talent was there, but all of a sudden it clicked as far as the intensity. He just had a transformation out there." Bush went so far as to actually identify a specific game when he witnessed the transformation.

Yes, Diamond throws hard. Lot’s of guys throw hard. What sets Diamond apart is his tenacity. His intensity. His meanness. As one scouting report put it, "[Diamond is] a tenacious competitor who will drop hitters on their ass."

So what I mean when I say that Thomas Diamond needs to control his temper is that the ordinarily mild-mannered, soft-spoken, sincere Thomas Diamond needs to find his inner bad man more often, because that, at the end of the day, is what I think sets him apart. And I’m not alone. UNO head coach Randy Bush knew it. Rangers director of minor league operations Jo! hn Lombardo knows it. Rangers minor league pitching coordinator Rick Adair knows it. And, most importantly, Thomas Diamond knows it.

Lombardo: "The determination and competitiveness that Thomas showed in his amateur career was a key factor in our decision to draft him," Lombardo told Jamey Newberg last summer. "His ability to continue to harness and channel those emotions will only be an asset to him as he matures as a professional." (Emphasis added).

Adair: "It means everything in the world to see a young pitcher respond like that [to being laughed at by the A’s in 2004 instructional league]," Adair told Newberg. "As much as you’re into a player’s talent, it’s also important for him to learn how to respond to adversity. You have to be extremely tough mentally t! o pitch in the big leagues. The way Thomas handled himself was impressive."

Diamond: Last winter, Diamond told the Star-Telegram’s T.R. Sullivan that "[m]y attitude on the mound is not pretty. I'm not a nice guy on the mound. If I'm working on something, I don't appreciate people making jokes. When I heard [the laughter from the A’s bench], it triggered something inside. I wasn't going to stand there and take that stuff." (Emphasis added). While still at UNO, a month before being drafted, Diamond said of himself, "I feel I’m feel I’m very intense when I go out there. It's strictly business, and I can be mean sometime, too, if that's what it takes. I have no problem with standing somebody up. That's my plate, and I'll do whatever I have to do to make sure (hitters) know that." (Emphasis added)

When hitters know that, they have no chance. But there are still times when the generally mild-mannered Diamond doesn’t seem to haul that ferocious beast out to the mound with him (or keep it front and center throughout an entire appearance) and when that is the case at the level he’s now reached, he becomes hittable.

In Bakersfield, it didn’t appear to matter much. Either Diamond was perpetually ticked off about his assignment out of spring camp or Cal Leaguer hitters were simply overmatched. Probably both. The league hit a hopeless .191 / .292 / .267 off of the right-hander as he racked up an impressive 101 whiffs in 81 innings. Lefties were especially anaemic, hitting just .162 due, in large part, to Diamond’s plus changeup, a pitch he relies upon very heavily, especially when he is having a tough time controlling his fastball (a point that will become especially salient when reviewing ! his Texas League numbers).

In the Texas League right handed hitters fared little better than they did in the Cal League (.222 vs. 233), but lefties were far more successful, going for a .270 average. While the fact that left-handed bats improved by more than .100 points after Diamond jumped up a level might seem like an indication that Diamond’s change is not an especially high-quality offering, remember this: Frisco pitching coach Steve Luebber was terminated at the end of July and with his departure came an edict that the RoughRiders pitchers throw almost nothing but fastballs (and this fact was certainly not lost on Texas League hitters).

The effective loss of his changeup for the season’s final month hurt Diamond perhaps more than any other pitcher in the Frisco rotation. His ERA in June was 4.50. In July (as one would hope, if not expect), he improved to 4.13, ! but in August, during which he threw approximately 90% fastballs, Diamond’s ERA shot up to 5.97.

There appear to be three primary reasons for Diamond’s huge leap in ERA during the season’s final month, two of which I have already stated: lefties hit him pretty hard and the league knew to sit dead red. But perhaps most importantly, Diamond–who admits he was struggling with some mechanical issues while at Frisco–was unable to go to the change when he couldn’t locate his fastball, which is what he had done from time-to-time during his first seven starts for Frisco. Accordingly, he issued an unacceptably high number of walks during the final month: 21 in 28 innings.

Diamond’s assortment is fascinating, but still inconsistent. As I have indicated, his changeup seems to be his best, most consistent pitch. His fastball, curve and slider were all very inconsistent in Fris! co. It was not at all unusual to see Diamond hit every number on the radar between 90-96...in one inning. He could fire off a big Rick Helling curve that was a true knee-buckler and then the next one would be a 55 footer. You’d see one slider that brought back memories of Jeff Zimmerman and then the next two would just hang over the plate like a pinata. What I’m saying is that Diamond clearly has it in him to develop four top-quality pitches

So he completely overwhelmed High-A hitters and occasionally showed the ability to do the same against Texas League opponents, but not consistently. As Diamond said of himself back in college, "I can be mean sometime, too, if that’s what it takes." What he has to come to terms with now, at the level he’s reached, is that is always what it takes. He can’t wait to be laughed at by opposing hitters or passed over for a promotion. He can’t depend on external factors to find ! it. It’s up to Diamond to find a way to take that felonious attitude to the mound every fifth day and if he does, he’ll force his way into the Rangers big league rotation in no time at all.

Every single thing you want in a big league rotation horse when you dream one up is in the Thomas Diamond package. Consistent focus and attitude, and consistency in his stuff is all that separates him from breaking through.
2006 Projection: Diamond figures to return to the Frisco rotation where he should enjoy immediate and consistent success. He’ll see Oklahoma at some point this summer and get a September call up. If all goes well, he’ll break camp in 2007 as a big league starter and remain one for 12 or 15 years.
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3. C.J. Wilson (LH; 25 years old; .189 / .246 / .377 @ High-A Bakersfield; .290 / .349 / .494 @ Double-A Frisco; 5th round, 2001 draft)

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels talks of simultaneously working one-year plan and five-year plans. C.J. Wilson, probably more than anyone else in the system, is caught in the middle of those two plans.

Can a club historically starved for pitching actually take a guy who posted a 2.73 ERA and held the opposition to a .191 batting average out of the bullpen while posting a 2.68 G/F ratio overall as a rookie and send him back to the farm? Isn’t he too valuable to the one-year plan? If the guy is Wilson, then maybe the answer is they can’t afford to not return him to the minors because, as good as Wilson was in the Rangers bullpen last year, the club needs to find out if he can become! the solid starter they think and hope he can be in order to maximize his value in the five-year plan.

In 2002, the left-handed Wilson (taken in the 5th round of the 2001 draft) exploded onto the prospect map by going 10-2 with a 3.06 ERA at High A Port Charlotte and ending the season by dominating the Double A Texas League for Tulsa, appearing in 5 games (all starts) for the Drillers going 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA (6 ER/30 IP). He pitched hurt at Frisco in 2003 and sat out 2004 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Wilson returned to action last spring with improved stuff and an important advocate in big league camp. Former pitching coach Orel Hershiser took note of Wilson’s re-emergence and though Wilson did not have a big league invite, Hershiser saw to it that Wilson was with him on the big league diamond frequently. "I've been looking forward to working with him ! ever since I heard about him last year," Hershiser told the Star-Telegram’s T.R. Sullivan. "The arm is a plus -- he has a big-league arm for a left-hander that's not soft, not overpowering, but mid- to above-average arm strength. He knows how to spin the ball and change speeds, and he has an intelligence level that will not be a deterrent to his success."

Seeing his first action since the long layoff, Wilson was wicked in spring training against big leaguers (4 IP, 2 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 BB's 5 K's). He opened up with Bakersfield where he dominated, posting a 3.29 ERA, fanning 14 in 13.2 innings, and holding the league to a .189 batting average while posting a 2.38 G/F ratio. He returned to the Texas League for a third time where, after a couple of rough outings, he got on a roll.

5/18: 5 IP: 1 Run, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K's
5/23: Horrible; ! gave up 9 runs
5/29: 3.2 IP: 1 Run (0 earned), 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K's
6/ 2: 4IP: 1 Run, 5 H, 1 BB, 5K's
6/ 8: 2 IP: 0 Runs, 1 H, 0 BB's, 2'K's

And on the strength of that very brief performance in Frisco, Wilson was prematurely summoned to join the Rangers in Miami where he fanned the second big league hitter he faced: Carlos Delgado. After six mostly rocky appearances with the Rangers through June and early July, Wilson was returned to Frisco where he made four more dominant appearances, posting a 1.69 ERA while recording 13 whiffs and issuing just one walk in 16 innings.

Three of those four outings were at home and I saw all three of them (as did Dom Chiti) and I can tell you that Wilson was even more dominant during that stretch than his numbers would suggest. Hitters simply had no chance.! They saw nothing but strikes, they struck out a lot, and when they didn’t, they mostly dribbled weak grounders around the infield.

But Wilson’s final line at Frisco was 0-4 with a 4.43 ERA and if I heard it once, I heard it a thousand times from the cynical local sports punditry: "he couldn’t even get double-A hitters out."

Utter and complete nonsense.

Wilson fanned 44 in 43 innings at Frisco (9.20 K/9). He walked just 14 and posted an outstanding G/F ratio of 1.85 (and at Bakersfield, his G/F was 2.38).

The combination of high strikeouts and ground-ball extremism in one left-handed package is very rare (and, of course, desirous in Arlington). Realize that only nine big leaguers who qualified posted G/F ratios better than 1.85 last year and only tw! o of them posted K/9 ratios over 7.00: Cris Carpenter and A.J. Burnett. Only two of nine did both in 2004. None achieved both in 2003. None in 2002. Forget his final record and ERA: in spite of what the local media would have had you believe, Wilson was the most dominant pitcher on the Frisco staff last year. Yes. I know what I’m saying.

Wilson, who goes 6'2" and weighs a solid 210 lbs., features a four-pitch assortment that includes a heavy, sinking fastball that sits at 91 and peaks at 94 mph, as well as a plus curve. He changes speeds and moves the ball around the strike zone impressively. He knows how to pitch. He is also an outstanding athlete who can field his position and when interleague play rolls around, he’ll be among the best hitting pitchers you’ll see.

What concerns me about Wilson is that he can let things get out of hand in a hurry. His bad outings are! really, really bad. For instance, on May 7, he gave up five runs in three innings (four in the second). On May 13, he surrendered eight runs in four innings (six in one frame). Ten days later, nine runs in three innings (five in the first and four in the third). And, of course, you saw it a few times in Arlington last summer.

These implosions are inconsistent with his personality. Wilson, who is both bright and exceedingly "left-handed" in personality, doesn’t come across as someone who is easily rattled (or ever rattled, for that matter). Whatever the reason, Wilson will have to find a way to stop the bleeding once it starts if he wants to become a solid, dependable big league starter.

But for all of the pitching talent that has come through Frisco in the last three years, perhaps only Edison Volquez, Juan Dominguez and Kam Loe in his final month or two wit! h the Riders have been as visually impressive as Wilson or demonstrated the ability to manhandle Texas League hitters like Wilson has.
2006 Projection: After missing half of 2003, all of 2004 and being rushed up to Arlington last year, Wilson really needs to log a lot of innings this year. Mark Connor says that Wilson has the chance to be a number two starter down the road, but in order to become that, he needs to stretch out. He won’t be able to do so in Arlington this year where he would have a minor bullpen role on opening day if he were to break with the big club. I’d like to see him in the Oklahoma rotation for at least half a year before returning to Arlington. Wilson figures to compete for a spot in the Rangers rotation in 2007 and could fit into the back end of the rotation sometime this year should injury or ineffectiveness strike.
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2. John Danks (LH; 20 years old; .228 / .287 / .352 @ High-A Bakersfield; .297 / .359 / .503 @ Double-A Frisco; 1st round 2003 draft)
I’ll start by saying this. I believe that John Danks’ continues to be the most projectable pitcher in the Rangers system. There is simply no way to take a holistic look at Danks and conclude that he has any ceiling whatsoever. And that’s saying a lot for a guy who is already regarded as one of the elite prospects in the game. The Rangers are trying to build an ace here and they have a willing and able student in Danks, who proves each and every year that his capacity to learn, adapt and improve could be limitless.

I had the very good fortune of teaching at the University of Tulsa during the years that Orlando "Tubby" Smith was the basketball coach there. It was his first job as a head coach and he had pr! eviously been an assistant on Rick Pitino’s University of Kentucky staff. Tubby played pickup basketball with a group of us nearly every day, so I got to know him pretty well and one day I asked him about the difference between recruiting for Kentucky and recruiting for Tulsa.

Tubby said that at Kentucky, they obviously had the pick of the litter. At Tulsa, however, they had to find the diamond in the rough. Smith took the previously lowly Golden Hurricane to the Sweet Sixteen two years in a row, mostly with diamonds in the rough that nobody else recruited.

I asked Smith how, exactly, they went about finding these kids and he said to me "we like to watch them practice when they don’t know anybody is watching. I want kids who are obsessed with erasing their weaknesses." The point he was making was that he believed that he could project who would become a much better ! player going forward by finding the kids who spent practice time on what they didn’t already do well.

Now John Danks is no "diamond in the rough." He was among the nation’s most coveted recruits coming out of high school and a consensus top-10 MLB draft pick. But what you need to know about Danks is that, in spite of his enormous talent, he is obsessed with erasing the weaknesses in his game. When you find that level of commitment in an already elite package of talent and skill, you are really on to something.

As we track the professional career of John Danks, we see pretty much the same thing every year. He begins a season with what he knows, dominates, moves up a level, struggles, returns to that level at the start of the next year and suddenly dominates it. He does this again and again and what it tells me is that Danks has that obsession with erasing his weakne! sses that Tubby Smith described.

The left-handed Danks came into the Rangers organization without a changeup. He had dominated high school pitchers with his plus fastball and big-league yakker that has always been considered one of the best curve balls in the game. He didn’t need a third pitch. But he knew he would need one to move up and he’s worked so hard on the change that it is now almost universally regarded as a plus pitch. His commitment to the development of that offering has almost certainly skewed his numbers as a pro because he forced himself to work on it and use it even when it would have been easier for him to rely on his golden bender.

In 2003, his first pro season, Danks overwhelmed fellow 18 year olds in the AZL (0.69 ERA; 22 K’s and 4 BB’s in 13 innings) but found the going a little tougher against the equivalent of college competition in the NWL (! 8.53 ERA; 13 K’s and 7 BB’s in 12.2 innings). In one game, an umpire took offense at Danks’s somewhat over-the-top reaction to a called ball and proceeded to call 11 straight balls. One scouting report cited in Baseball America after that season indicated that Danks "needs to learn to handle in-game adversity better." The lessons? Danks would need a third pitch to keep more advanced hitters off balance and he need to improve his poise on the mound.

Danks went to spring training to work on his changeup and by the middle of that summer, when he reached Stockton, this is what his pitching coach, Andy Hawkins, had to say: "He didn't have a changeup in spring training, and now it's really come along. He shows a lot of poise for a 19-year-old. He's competitive. He took a whipping in spring training and never got down on himself. He's shown a lot of aptitude and really learned as the year has gone on."

Lessons learned.

He opened up 2004 in full season Clinton where he dominated, posting a 2.17 ERA with 64 K’s and 14 BB’s in 49.2 innings before moving on to high-A Stockton where he hit the wall, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA, fanning 48 and walking 26 in 55 innings. Lessons? He needed to improve his diet and fitness to maintain his stamina over a full season of pro baseball and he would need to learn how to pitch rather than simply dazzle hitters with his plus stuff.

Forward to 2005 and we find Danks dominating the Cal League, posting a 2.50 ERA in what is a notoriously hitter-friendly league before moving on to the double-A Texas League where he is one of the youngest pitchers on the circuit, one month removed from his 20th birthday. With the momentum he had built up in Bakersfield, he rolled through is! first seven starts for Frisco in very strong fashion, going 3-2 with a 3.68 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 44 innings as the league hit a cumulative .248 off of him. It was very impressive work for a 20 year old making what most people regard as the biggest leap on the climb through the minors. Unlike the previous year where he was simply overmatched when he moved up from low-A to high-A, Danks proved early on that he was good enough to compete at the higher level. But he regressed as the season wore on.

Oddly enough, Danks had always been more effective against right handers than lefties before coming to Frisco. In 2004, he held right-handers to a .183 average in Clinton and .269 in Stockton, while MWL lefties got to him at a .263 rate and the Cal League’s lefties pounded him at a .333 clip. That always seemed odd to me considering that his curve is his best pitch and his change is his worst. I don’t know this, but I suspect ! that part of the reason he struggled in the Cal League is that for developmental reasons he was being asked to throw the change much more often than his reliable curve.

In 2005, Danks held Cal League right handers to a .216 average and lefties to .250, but in the Texas League, right handers suddenly had his number, getting to him at a .322 clip while lefties were held to a paltry .222 average. I suspect that this may have something to do with the mandate that Frisco starters throw almost nothing but fastballs over the season’s final two months.

This may be an overly rose-colored view of the situation, but I am more encouraged by the fact that he improved against lefties than the fact that he regressed against right handers. The fact that he has such a strong track record against right-handers overall and that he seems to be so willing to focus on eliminating his wea! knesses makes me think that he won’t have the same problem in 2006.

Danks has taken other lessons of life and baseball and applied them to emerge a better player. He learned the hard way that he had to better manage his life, his diet, his fitness, and his temper. He’s done all of that. He learned that he’d be limited with the two plus pitches that made him a millionaire at age 18, so he committed to learning a third pitch and making it as good as the other two. He learned that he wouldn’t always be able to baffle hitters with his plus stuff, so he’s learned how to pitch. He’s learned how to set hitters up. How to better locate his fastball. He’s learned to stand and fight when things aren’t going perfectly. He’s developed poise. And the proof is in the pudding that Danks’s ability to take hard lessons to heart is paying off.
2006 Projection: Danks will return to Frisco where he should be o! ne of the elite pitchers in the league. At some point, he’ll move on to Oklahoma where, if his form holds, he’ll struggle a little bit, but it won’t bother him. He’ll learn from it. Expect a September callup and look for Danks to work his way into the Rangers rotation at some point in 2007.
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1. Edison Volquez (RH; 22 y.o.; .252 / .304 / .421 @ High-A Bakersfield; .258 / .311 / .400 @ Double-A Frisco; undrafted free agent in Dominican Republic, October, 2001)
It’s sort of hard to believe now, but one year ago, Edison Volquez was just beginning to appear on the margins of the prospect radar. Baseball America rated him the twelfth best prospect in the Rangers system. Prospect guru John Sickels didn’t bother to grade him. Jamey Newberg pegged him as the top breakout pitching prospect in the system,! but still only ranked him as the Rangers’ #18 prospect overall. And I ranked him as the tenth best starting pitcher prospect in the Rangers system.

Today, the 21 year old Volquez isn’t terribly far from being one of the top ten pitching prospects in all of baseball.

After a relatively pedestrian four months in Clinton, the right-handed Volquez finished 2004 with a very strong showing in Stockton, going 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA through six starts down the stretch, fanning 26 while holding the league to a .205 average in 31.2 innings. He was outstanding in the Dominican Winter League and rolled into spring training with considerable buzz. By the time Jamey Newberg and I got to Surprise in late March, he was without a doubt topic number one in minor league camp.

Volquez returned to Cal League to b! egin 2005 and, showing vastly improved control as well as more electric stuff, he quickly established himself as one of the league’s three-best pitching prospects according to Baseball America (along side John Danks and Thomas Diamond) by punching out 77 while walking just 12 in 66.2 innings while posting a 4.19 ERA (which would have been fifth best in the league had he logged enough innings to qualify).

Volquez goes about 6'1", 190 lbs., with enormous hands and wields a three pitch assortment that includes the best fastball in the system. His 93-98 mph heater usually shows good late movement and he can subtract about 14-18 mph on a turnover change that he can run to either side of the plate (on consecutive pitches). He augments his two primary offerings with a solid but seldom used curve ball that features legitimate two-plane break. He’ll need to refine in order to maximize his potential as a front-line starter. The changeup, which was evidently added to his arsenal midway through the 2004 season, has a chance to be his best pitch (which is saying a ton given the quality of his fastball), but he allegedly tips it sometimes by opening up his glove.

But as impressive as his repertoire may be, what observers typically remember most about Volquez is his charisma. One of the best-liked players in the system, Volquez seems to be a natural born leader. He is bright, hard-working and competitive. Club officials frequently speak of his plus makeup.

For me, what separates Volquez from the pack and makes him truly special, aside from his freaky stuff, is the way he seems to adore the big stage.

Before going to Detroit and excelling on the big stage by picking up the victory with a scoreless inning in the Futures Game, V! olquez happened to have drawn the assignment of pitching a regionally televised game at Corpus Christi’s beautiful new stadium in his third Texas League start and fired off a complete game shutout, allowing just two singles and a walk while fanning seven. In the ninth inning, his fastball sat at 95 mph and the hype surrounding Volquez intensified.

But it was five days later that Volquez really had his coming out party, stealing the show with one inning of relief at the Texas League All-Star Game on June 21.

Volquez perched himself upon the Frisco mound in front of what was probably the biggest crowd he’s ever seen, on a day when some had to be questioning whether–after just three Texas League appearances–he really belonged in the game, and wrapped his massive hands around a baseball, letting fly called strike one (96 mph fastball). Called strike two (97 mph fastb! all) and a swing and miss for strike three on a dirty diving change.

Next up, the Texas League leader in homers, Corey Aldridge, who had seen big league action with the Atlanta Braves: Change up for strike one. Eighty mile an hour change up fouled off for strike two. Heater, 95 mph, fouled back. Finally, after seven pitches, a pair of balls (an 81 mph change and a 94 mph fastball). Then Volquez snapped off the one curve ball he threw during his appearance, a nice 11-5 number that came in at 74 mph and Aldridge dribbled a harmless grounder to sure-handed second baseman Drew Meyer for out number two.

Then the powerful Mike Napoli took his place in the box. The Angels’ catching prospect led the Cal League with 29 dingers in 2004, was second behind Aldridge in the Texas League home run race in 2005 while batting .300, and had just provided the most awe-inspiring moment o! f the home run contest before the all-star game with a shot over the greenback in dead center (at least 470 feet). Napoli is a dead fastball hitter (one scouting report I read reads "will hit an average fastball a mile" and, after the home run contest, I had little reason to doubt the veracity of that report).

So as Napoli stood in, I wondered to myself if Volquez knew about any of this–or if he cared. Quickly, the answers came: probably not and no. Fastball, right down the gut. Strike one. Fastball, 97 mph, fouled off. Strike two. And then one more time, fastball, 97 mph, as Napoli looked on hopelessly. Called strike three. Volquez, smiling as usual, swaggered back to the dugout as gasps of astonishment filled the stadium. It was, without question, the most impressive inning of pitching I’ve seen at Dr.Pepper / 7-Up Ballpark.

Even in his otherwise unmemorable b! ig league cameo, Volquez rose to the occasion in his spotlight moment. With runners on first and second, one out, and the Rangers down, 3-0, Volquez started one of the American League’s five best hitters, Paul Konerko off with ball one. He then fired nine straight strikes, mixing mid-90s heat and upper-70s diving changeups, ultimately punching Konerko out on a dirty 80-mph change, low and away. Think about it: Paul Konerko saw nine straight strikes, none of which he could do anything with. If that doesn’t speak to the wicked stuff this kid possesses (and his, um, cajones), I don’t know what does.

Overall, Volquez’s Texas League season was good but not great. He made ten starts, finishing 1-5 with a 4.14 ERA (which would have been 13th best in the league had he logged enough innings to qualify for the leader board) and he missed a month on the disabled list with a strained oblique. He posted a solid 1.36 G/F ratio in Bakersfield and ! a 1.24 ratio in Frisco.

In a close race between the top four pitchers in the system, Volquez gets the top spot due in large part to the fact that other pitchers in the system (including John Danks, who said that Volquez "has got the best stuff I’ve seen in the minor leagues") almost universally consider him the best among their peers.
2006 Projection: I would personally like to see Volquez return to Frisco, but it seems more likely than not that he’ll be assigned to Oklahoma where he’ll once again work with Andy Hawkins who was his pitching coach at Stockton back in 2004 (which is where his meteoric rise really began). The overhaul of the Rangers rotation helps to ensure that Volquez will not be rushed again as he was last summer and one hopes that he is given plenty of time to iron out his game before he’s brought back up. It is my hope that the next time you see Edison Volquez on the hill in Arlington he’ll be there to stay...for! about 15 years.

[MFFL]

Damn fine news. It looks like we some GOOD young pitching coming up.

[Drbio]

Good Ranger news has been very slow lately. This was very refreshing......and encouraging.

[Dropstep]

I just want Fuson back, and Hart to die.

[Drbio]

Originally Posted by Dropstep

I just want Fuson back, and Hart to die.

That's just nuts.





The Rangers just announced that they have signed Rod Barajas to a one year 3.2 million dollar deal. JD strikes again. He's doing a much better job thus far than we saw out of Fuson (who I liked).

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Drbio

That's just nuts.





The Rangers just announced that they have signed Rod Barajas to a one year 3.2 million dollar deal. JD strikes again. He's doing a much better job thus far than we saw out of Fuson (who I liked).

Fuson was never the GM, what do we have to compare it to. The only comparison we will have is a few years from now when we can compare JD drafts to Fuson drafts.

I'm glad the Barajas is only 1 year.

[Drbio]

I'm glad the Barajas deal is one year too. But it is a good sign. True about Fuson.


Ha! I scooped Newberg.