Please turn off all cell phones and Peja's - Mavs to look at Stojakovic? - Page 5 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

DubOverdose · 01-22-2011, 08:43 AM

This is as good of a "free" pick up that you can hope for! Peja should be a great addition with the way we've seen players like Stevenson open up for 3s. Peja should make it rain 3s all game!

DubOverdose · 01-22-2011, 08:44 AM

And with JET, Kidd, Stevenson, Peja, and Dirk, we should always have two guys feeling their stroke from distance.

xrobx · 01-22-2011, 09:01 AM

can't wait until predrag gets here

BGMaverick9 · 01-22-2011, 11:00 PM

MAN...they're good at keeping their stuff in-house.
Cuban expects Ajinca trade to go through Monday, says Peja committed to Mavs quite a while ago

http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.co...38893/27191793

Quote:

NEWARK, N.J. – The Mavericks had a verbal commitment from Peja Stojakovic three weeks ago and expect the scrutinized Alexis Ajinca trade to be approved by the league office Monday.

This according to Mavs owner Mark Cuban, who gave reporters a blow-by-blow of the Stojakovic buyout and Ajinca trade after Dallas beat New Jersey 87-86 Saturday night on a rim-rattling, game-winning shot by Dirk Nowitzki.

Cuban said when Caron Butler went down with a season-ending knee injury in early January, he called Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo and asked if Toronto would be interested in buying out Stojakovic, who has barely played for this season. Colangelo replied, “’We’d like to try to trade him first, but yeah,’” said Cuban, who asked for and received permission from Colangelo to speak with Stojakovic’s agent, David Bauman.

Mavs GM Donnie Nelson expressed his interest in Stojakovic to Bauman and said, “‘If you can work out a buyout with the Raptors, would you come to the Mavs?’” Cuban said. “He goes, ‘Yeah.’ So he basically had committed to us weeks ago.”

After the buyout was completed and Stojakovic was waived, Cuban said Colangelo inquired about Ajinca.

“He says, ‘What about Ajinca?’’ Cuban said. “Are you guys still interested in trading him and paying his salary?’ OK, well yes. Same amount of money, not playing a lot, so we did the trade. They were completely separate independent deals. One had nothing to do with the other. But obviously I think a lot of teams were upset because we got the jump on them. And that’s legit.

“You’re allowed to call teams,” Cuban said. “Teams are calling the Nets and saying, ‘Are you going to buy out Troy Murphy?’ … That’s just the way it works. That’s how you get what they call divorce contracts, because if he doesn’t know where he’s going to go, he doesn’t know how to do the buyout.”

After receiving complaints from rival teams that the trade was an illegal side deal aimed at circumventing the salary cap, the league office refused to rubber-stamp the Ajinca trade. Cuban said he was at the NBA office in New York when all of this was going down, and that he showed league officials his text-message trail substantiating his chronology.

“The trade goes through and (Stojakovic) signs the contract Monday,” Cuban said. “… I expect it. I mean, it’s the NBA, but you know, that’s what I expect.”

MavsFTR · 01-22-2011, 11:21 PM

But that makes it sound like Cuban expects Peja to be the the guy who replaces Caron...

mavs777 · 01-22-2011, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

But that makes it sound like Cuban expects Peja to be the the guy who replaces Caron...

based on what?

He will help offset the loss of Caron though

BGMaverick9 · 01-22-2011, 11:28 PM

http://ken-berger.blogs.cbssports.co...38893/27191793

Quote:

UPDATE: Cuban also said he met with Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov Saturday night and put on his best Russian accent to relay what Prokhorov allegedly said to him: "I must break you." Cuban was joking, but he wasn't joking when he said he told Prokhorov he's "great for the NBA."

"He's ballsy, he's smart, he does it this way and doesn't give a ___ what other people think," Cuban said.

Apparently unable to stop himself from making news as he stood in the doorway to the visiting locker room at the Prudential Center, Cuban then took aim at the officiating -- mentioning a series of questionable calls, the most egregious of which no one in his audience noticed.

"There were some bizarro calls out there," Cuban said. "That was a bizarro game. Are you kidding me?"

Cuban said in the second half, Nets forward Kris Humphries used the support structure on the back of the backboard to pull himself up to elevate for a tip-in.

"You guys didn't see that?" Cuban said. "There was tip, and the support behind the backboard, he pulls himself up and tips the ball in. That was crazy."

Cuban also marveled at another instance when the Mavs' DeShawn Stevenson didn't hear the whistle for a timeout and was knocked to the floor. No foul was called because it was a dead ball.

"If you hit a guy and knock him on the ground, just because the one guy didn't hear the whistle doesn't mean you have carte blanche to put him on the ground," Cuban said. "I mean, that's craziness. Another time, a guy does a jump-stop and then takes a step. ... We'll see. If it wasn't so sad, it'd be funny."
It's neither, really. Just another night in the NBA.

grndmstr_c · 01-22-2011, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

But that makes it sound like Cuban expects Peja to be the the guy who replaces Caron...

There would be no reason to sign him unless they were looking at him as the guy who will complete the SF rotation in Butler's absence.

chumdawg · 01-22-2011, 11:39 PM

Wow, what a bizarre couple of articles. The first one seems to do nothing but support the claims that the deal got around the CBA. Trade for him? No, we can't do that. But if you will buy him out and he will sign here, we will send you something for nothing.

Well...I can see where the complainers are coming from! Seems weird to air it out in public before the ink is dry.

The second one on top of the first just makes Cuban look like the self-professed "smartest guy in the room." Kinda weird.

dude1394 · 01-23-2011, 12:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

But that makes it sound like Cuban expects Peja to be the the guy who replaces Caron...

He'll be one of the guys who replaces Caron unless they find someone better that isn't at an outrageous price I expect.

dalger · 01-23-2011, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

He'll be one of the guys who replaces Caron unless they find someone better that isn't at an outrageous price I expect.

I tend to agree. Based on what the Mavs have been saying in recent weeks, it just seems logical to make a move like this one with no risk and potential upside. Maybe Roddy will be back early enough to play a few games before the trade deadline and allow us to evaluate the team as a whole.

Even if Roddy wasn't back in time and we couldn't evaluate a healthy Mavs team with Peja and Roddy, we'd still be able to see what Peja can do until then. If it's not much, we'll probably know where to ask for more, e.g. Detroit or Charlotte.

G-Man · 01-23-2011, 04:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalger

I tend to agree. Based on what the Mavs have been saying in recent weeks, it just seems logical to make a move like this one with no risk and potential upside. Maybe Roddy will be back early enough to play a few games before the trade deadline and allow us to evaluate the team as a whole.

Even if Roddy wasn't back in time and we couldn't evaluate a healthy Mavs team with Peja and Roddy, we'd still be able to see what Peja can do until then. If it's not much, we'll probably know where to ask for more, e.g. Detroit or Charlotte.

I'd have to agree with this thinking. The timing is great to bring in Peja now and see what he's got left.
The price for the guys we like, SJax and Iggy, is so high, the odds of someone else swooping in on them are not very high.
And now with Mello to NJ dead in the motor pool, Detroit and Denver are both looking for trade partners. there are deals to be made, and Peja is a good 3 to have just in case nothing else works.
But to contend, we need someone who can really defend and replace Caron's 15 points a night. Peja is not enough, unless Roddy is good for about 15, and I am not convinced he's ready to do that.

deamon · 01-23-2011, 07:24 AM

Roddy isn't good player as Butler, and if we want fight in PO we need someone better than Butler, not only replace him. Someone who play better defense than Caron.

41mvp · 01-23-2011, 08:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by deamon

Roddy isn't good player as Butler, and if we want fight in PO we need someone better than Butler, not only replace him. Someone who play better defense than Caron.

Butler is really good defender.Tell me who is better defender than Caron in free agents list?

xrobx · 01-23-2011, 09:10 AM

prince is the guy to target, look at his game from last night he is a stud

spreedom · 01-23-2011, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 41mvp

Butler is really good defender.Tell me who is better defender than Caron in free agents list?

TBH I don't think Butler's D is anywhere close to the level that it was at a few years ago when he was peaking with the Wizards. I think he's a good defender, but I don't think he's better than any of the major guys that we're looking at to replace him (Jax, Iggy, Crash, Prince).

mavs777 · 01-23-2011, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrobx

prince is the guy to target, look at his game from last night he is a stud

Prince can't create his own shot at all, he is a smart and heady player, but his defense is overrated.

We need another legit scorer

dude1394 · 01-23-2011, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spreedom

TBH I don't think Butler's D is anywhere close to the level that it was at a few years ago when he was peaking with the Wizards. I think he's a good defender, but I don't think he's better than any of the major guys that we're looking at to replace him (Jax, Iggy, Crash, Prince).

He may not be better completely but he also seemed to have a little something in his chest as well that the team responded to. It does make me wonder if a Crash isn't the type...but we just need a guy who has some toughness and some offense.

We just do not have enough offense.

grndmstr_c · 01-23-2011, 03:48 PM

I have to wonder if hindsight isn't tricking people into thinking that Butler brought more to the table offensively than he actually did. Because he was really only good for two things on that end: 1) he was shooting very well from three, and 2) he could get that step-back 18-20 footer off against single coverage pretty much whenever he wanted. Pretty much everything else in his offensive repertoire was somewhere between mediocre and poor, with inside scoring being the most conspicuous example of the latter, leading to an overall true-shooting percentage that was utterly unremarkable.

Now, Peja's not going to be able to duplicate Caron's shot-creation off the isolation step-back 18-foot jumper, but if you're willing to grant that a decent proportion of those attempts will be converted into contested three-pointers when Peja's out there, I'm not so sure that any offensive ground is being lost at all, seeing as how Peja arguably has the most uncontestable three-point shot in league history. And in case you're unconvinced that such a trade-off of shot locations is plausible, consider this: before Caron was injured, he was averaging 2.2 3PAs and 5.9 16-23' FGAs per game. Last season, with NO, Peja averaged 5.7 3PAs and 2.6 16-23' FGAs per game.

Less optimism is possible on the defensive end. Caron had nothing on Marion as a SF defender, but he was still doing very well on that end of the court, and it's all but guaranteed that Dallas will lose something in that respect when Marion's not manning the position. Short of acquiring a player like Hinrich in trade, the Mavs' best chance at covering for the loss of Butler on that end, outside of Marion getting more SF minutes, lies in the promise of improved offensive execution as Peja works his way into the rotation and Booby comes back from the foot injury.

mavs777 · 01-23-2011, 04:49 PM

I think some of you are overrating butler and some are underrating him

It doesn't matter how I player scores it is the results

The facts are these Butler scored 15 PPG on 45/43/77 % shooting which shows he was very effecient, he was also shooting better when the time of injury came 48%. But the chances of the three point percentage staying so high isnt high (at the same time I have noticed he had gotten much more arc on his three point shots compared to last years). Also he owned a spot on the floor and kept the spacing very well it is yet to be seen if Peja or anyone can be in that baseline like he was. He was a guy you wouldn't double Dirk from.

Thats who caron is a solid efficient scorer, chances are the efficiency was going to go down but he was still a important part of the team cause we lack scorers

With Peja and Booby we won't miss the outside shooting though I do think you guys are under looking just how much he meant to Dirk, plus to the spacing of the offense

grndmstr_c · 01-23-2011, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavs777

I think some of you are overrating butler and some are underrating him

It doesn't matter how I player scores it is the results

The facts are these Butler scored 15 PPG on 45/43/77 % shooting which shows he was very effecient, he was also shooting better when the time of injury came 48%. But the chances of the three point percentage staying so high isnt high (at the same time I have noticed he had gotten much more arc on his three point shots compared to last years). Also he owned a spot on the floor and kept the spacing very well it is yet to be seen if Peja or anyone can be in that baseline like he was. He was a guy you wouldn't double Dirk from.

Thats who caron is a solid efficient scorer, chances are the efficiency was going to go down but he was still a important part of the team cause we lack scorers

With Peja and Booby we won't miss the outside shooting though I do think you guys are under looking just how much he meant to Dirk, plus to the spacing of the offense

1) Butler's true-shooting percentage was 52.3%. That is not 'very efficient'. That is 'very middle of the road'.

2) You will not find a better floor-spacer than Peja. If that dude has enough space to catch the ball, he's got enough space to get off a quality 3-point attempt. Teams know it, and teams will respect it.

LonghornDub · 01-23-2011, 05:15 PM

Butler was a substantial net positive, and now he's gone. That's really all I care about.

CadBane · 01-23-2011, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

1) Butler's true-shooting percentage was 52.3%. That is not 'very efficient'. That is 'very middle of the road'.

2) You will not find a better floor-spacer than Peja. If that dude has enough space to catch the ball, he's got enough space to get off a quality 3-point attempt. Teams know it, and teams will respect it.

This. Mavs777777777 constantly states things that have no factual merit. Peja spreds the floor better than Butler. Butler has NEVER been an "efficient scored", though he was shooting the three at a career level before he got hurt. Keep in mind we were 5-1 without Caron early on. The main reason we miss Caron is because Terry went from good to terrible and Kidd went from a solid shooter to worst in the league. We miss Butler because he can score and no one but Dirk can. The fact is, the loss of ANY decent scorer would have had the same effect on this team. Jax, Crash, Iggy, K-Mart would all bring more to the table than Caron.

jthig32 · 01-23-2011, 05:20 PM

I can't stop laughing at Caron and "very efficient" being used in the same sentence.

Very solid analysis above by _c. I would also say that the Mavs will missing something in the intangibles department. Caron did seem to provide something that sparked people.

But overall I definitely agree with the analysis.

jthig32 · 01-23-2011, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Butler was a substantial net positive, and now he's gone. That's really all I care about.

Substantial? I don't know about that. He was atrocious to start the season. He had improved to a nice level of play, but he was still an average offensive contributor at best.

And I would argue that his 3PT% was barreling towards regression, which would have hurt his performance even more.

This team would be in MUCH worse shape if Shawn Marion had gone down. Butler's offensive contributions should be replaceable. Hopefully Peja is the first step towards.

grndmstr_c · 01-23-2011, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Butler was a substantial net positive, and now he's gone. That's really all I care about.

But don't you think that a consideration of his strengths and weaknesses is relevant to a discussion about whether and to what extent it will be possible for the rest of the team to overcome, or perhaps transcend his absence?

BGMaverick9 · 01-23-2011, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Substantial? I don't know about that. He was atrocious to start the season. He had improved to a nice level of play, but he was still an average offensive contributor at best.

And I would argue that his 3PT% was barreling towards regression, which would have hurt his performance even more.

This team would be in MUCH worse shape if Shawn Marion had gone down. Butler's offensive contributions should be replaceable. Hopefully Peja is the first step towards.

Totally agree with the assessment that the team would be F'ed if Marion went down instead of Butler.

Over the course of the season, I would agree that Butler was in the range of average or above average. But I would look at what he did in the month leading up to the injury. The numbers were pretty damn efficient for a guy who has pretty much changed his game focusing more as just a shooter.

Whether you look at it that way or your way, it was enough to get the team where they were before the injury. The question is how much did he affect the team with his intangibles. Sure it hurts from a talent perspective, but it seems like the team took his departure very hard. So, if they find a player that can bring some or all of his statistical input, is that enough to work with the drop in the "chemistry?"

LonghornDub · 01-23-2011, 05:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Substantial? I don't know about that. He was atrocious to start the season. He had improved to a nice level of play, but he was still an average offensive contributor at best.

And I would argue that his 3PT% was barreling towards regression, which would have hurt his performance even more.

This team would be in MUCH worse shape if Shawn Marion had gone down. Butler's offensive contributions should be replaceable. Hopefully Peja is the first step towards.

Yes, substantial. Absolutely and without question, as far as I'm concerned. That doesn't mean you're wrong about Marion, though. I'd certainly rather have him healthy.

And I just can't agree that he was an "average" contributor. He wasn't an elite contributor, or even a particularly efficient contributor, but I have no idea what barometer we're using if Caron Butler is "average." He's certainly (much) better than the average NBA rotation player. Average starting SF? I dunno, maybe he's around average, I guess. I'd have to look at the list and think about it.

Oh, and as a general matter, I don't buy regression-to-the-mean arguments. The "law of averages" is a myth. I certainly saw nothing to indicate in the days/weeks before his injury that his 3-pt percentage was about to crumble.

LonghornDub · 01-23-2011, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

But don't you think that a consideration of his strengths and weaknesses is relevant to a discussion about whether and to what extent it will be possible for the rest of the team to overcome, or perhaps transcend his absence?

I'm not saying I mind the discussion. I think it's useful. I'm just stating my own opinion of the guy. I think he's a flawed player who nevertheless was a significant part of the team's early season success, and I think we will be lucky to replace his positive contributions. Doesn't mean we can't, but I'll consider us fortunate if it happens.

dude1394 · 01-23-2011, 05:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I have to wonder if hindsight isn't tricking people into thinking that Butler brought more to the table offensively than he actually did. Because he was really only good for two things on that end: 1) he was shooting very well from three, and 2) he could get that step-back 18-20 footer off against single coverage pretty much whenever he wanted. Pretty much everything else in his offensive repertoire was somewhere between mediocre and poor, with inside scoring being the most conspicuous example of the latter, leading to an overall true-shooting percentage that was utterly unremarkable.

Now, Peja's not going to be able to duplicate Caron's shot-creation off the isolation step-back 18-foot jumper, but if you're willing to grant that a decent proportion of those attempts will be converted into contested three-pointers when Peja's out there, I'm not so sure that any offensive ground is being lost at all, seeing as how Peja arguably has the most uncontestable three-point shot in league history. And in case you're unconvinced that such a trade-off of shot locations is plausible, consider this: before Caron was injured, he was averaging 2.2 3PAs and 5.9 16-23' FGAs per game. Last season, with NO, Peja averaged 5.7 3PAs and 2.6 16-23' FGAs per game.

Less optimism is possible on the defensive end. Caron had nothing on Marion as a SF defender, but he was still doing very well on that end of the court, and it's all but guaranteed that Dallas will lose something in that respect when Marion's not manning the position. Short of acquiring a player like Hinrich in trade, the Mavs' best chance at covering for the loss of Butler on that end, outside of Marion getting more SF minutes, lies in the promise of improved offensive execution as Peja works his way into the rotation and Booby comes back from the foot injury.

Yea Caron was really,REALLY shooting well from 3pt land before he went down. But the defensive stuff I think is going to be missed. What I liked a lot was having 2 pretty studly small forwards available at all times. Caron to start and then either caron/marion to finish. We'll still have marion to finish but we won't have that option of a tougher player to finish sometimes.

I think with caron out the mavs just are not as tough as they were...that is a problem.

jthig32 · 01-23-2011, 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Yes, substantial. Absolutely and without question, as far as I'm concerned. That doesn't mean you're wrong about Marion, though. I'd certainly rather have him healthy.

And I just can't agree that he was an "average" contributor. He wasn't an elite contributor, or even a particularly efficient contributor, but I have no idea what barometer we're using if Caron Butler is "average." He's certainly (much) better than the average NBA rotation player. Average starting SF? I dunno, maybe he's around average, I guess. I'd have to look at the list and think about it.

Oh, and as a general matter, I don't buy regression-to-the-mean arguments. The "law of averages" is a myth. I certainly saw nothing to indicate in the days/weeks before his injury that his 3-pt percentage was about to crumble.

I would say he was below average for a starting NBA SF. PER under 15, middling TS%, not a good mover of the ball, solid defender. He's a luxury as your second best SF (which is what he was for us), certainly, but he's just a guy at this point in his NBA career.

And I'm really surprised by your stance on regression to the mean. It's a very real thing, and I'm not sure why anyone would expect his 3PT% to stay north of 40% based on his career to date. Maybe it would have stayed high longer than I anticipated, but I'd bet a very, very large sum of money that Caron Butler has not suddenly turned into an elite 3PT shooter, and if he hasn't then he was due for significant regression.

CadBane · 01-23-2011, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

I would say he was below average for a starting NBA SF. PER under 15, middling TS%, not a good mover of the ball, solid defender. He's a luxury as your second best SF (which is what he was for us), certainly, but he's just a guy at this point in his NBA career.

And I'm really surprised by your stance on regression to the mean. It's a very real thing, and I'm not sure why anyone would expect his 3PT% to stay north of 40% based on his career to date. Maybe it would have stayed high longer than I anticipated, but I'd bet a very, very large sum of money that Caron Butler has not suddenly turned into an elite 3PT shooter, and if he hasn't then he was due for significant regression.

Well said.

Thomas86 · 01-23-2011, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CadBane

This. Mavs777777777 constantly states things that have no factual merit. Peja spreds the floor better than Butler. Butler has NEVER been an "efficient scored", though he was shooting the three at a career level before he got hurt. Keep in mind we were 5-1 without Caron early on. The main reason we miss Caron is because Terry went from good to terrible and Kidd went from a solid shooter to worst in the league. We miss Butler because he can score and no one but Dirk can. The fact is, the loss of ANY decent scorer would have had the same effect on this team. Jax, Crash, Iggy, K-Mart would all bring more to the table than Caron.

Maybe in defense and rebounding but Wallace can't create his own shot or play in a half court set like Butler could.

If the Mavs where playing a team like Golden State in the playoff Wallace would thrive in that series but if the Mavs are playing the Spurs Wallace might get exposed.

dalger · 01-23-2011, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

I would say he was below average for a starting NBA SF. PER under 15, middling TS%, not a good mover of the ball, solid defender. He's a luxury as your second best SF (which is what he was for us), certainly, but he's just a guy at this point in his NBA career.

I'm quite sure that I'm overrating Butler based on how we've played without him. That said, the Caron Butler we saw in December was simply not "below average" or "just a guy."

He was arguably our second-best player on offense, the only guy besides Dirk who could create his own shot and actually make it at a decent rate. Looking back at yesterday's game, perhaps it's not even that important to be an efficient scorer. Instead, it seems more important to be a scorer at all. We only have Dirk and a very streaky and declining Jet. That's all. We can't rely on any other guy to produce offensively, especially not when a game is on the line.

I think it's fair to assume that Caron drew enough attention to make life easier for guys like Jet, Marion, Stevenson or Kidd as well. He (not as much as Dirk, though) allowed them to be the role players that they are on offense. As soon as we asked those guys to be more during Dirk and Caron's absence, most of them struggled big time.

Finally, I think his ability to step up in crucial situations is underrated. We saw some of it in last year's playoff series against the Spurs in game 5 and 6, when he scored 35 and 25 points. Other than Dirk and Caron, nobody else was there to help (Roddy wasn't allowed...). When we played the Spurs at home after Dirk had injured his knee in late December, it was Caron who took the responsibility and scored 30 points. Carlisle particularly mentioned that Butler's not afraid of hitting big time shots.

His defense was pretty decent as well, he was a good fit professionally as well as personally and eventually helped us win games. I'm not trying to make him into something he's not, but I just don't think that replacing him is a picnic in the park either. Sometimes (efficiency) numbers don't seem to tell the whole story. If they do, I want Corey Maggette here immediately...

LonghornDub · 01-23-2011, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

I would say he was below average for a starting NBA SF. PER under 15, middling TS%, not a good mover of the ball, solid defender. He's a luxury as your second best SF (which is what he was for us), certainly, but he's just a guy at this point in his NBA career.

Even granting all that, that doesn't negate him being a "substantial net positive," which is what I called him. That concept encompasses so, so much more than just efficiency. I've already conceded that he's not efficient, but I still think he was a substantial net positive. He could create his own shot several times a game when we had nothing else going, he was a solid defender, he had size, he was tough, he rounded out our rotation in a way that helped maximize a lot of other guys (Marion included)...I could go on.

Point is, I'm basing my comment off a lot more than his efficiency. It's not the end-all, be-all for me. The PER ratings tell me Kevin Love is more efficient than Dirk, Steve Nash is more efficient than Deron Williams, Al Horford is more efficient than Manu Ginobili. I know who I'm taking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

And I'm really surprised by your stance on regression to the mean. It's a very real thing, and I'm not sure why anyone would expect his 3PT% to stay north of 40% based on his career to date. Maybe it would have stayed high longer than I anticipated, but I'd bet a very, very large sum of money that Caron Butler has not suddenly turned into an elite 3PT shooter, and if he hasn't then he was due for significant regression.

Not buying regression to the mean doesn't mean I think it'd say at 43% all season, it just means I can't conclusively presume his percentage was going to "barrel" south. He was playing some damn good basketball and shooting very well for a month plus. His career averages entail a host of elements completely different from this year. This was the best team he'd ever been on, with the best teammate he'd ever had, with the best point guard he'd ever had, with the best backup he'd ever had spelling him. I dunno what would have happened, but there's no way I'll assume under those circumstances that he was going to just fall off the cliff.

Bottom line for me is, I think we were a pretty serious contender with him, especially if Roddy can do a little something. Not the favorites, but a serious threat. Without him, I don't think we have a shot in hell, unless we are very fortunate with who we get to replace him. We can talk numbers, but that's my big picture take on the situation.

tcat075 · 01-23-2011, 07:28 PM

Butler's last 7 games before injury: 19.9 PPG on 47% shooting, 45% from deep.

Butler's last 20 games before injury: 16.3 PPG on 48% shooting, 44% from deep.

The eye test showed that Butler was making an effort to drive and attack more, and that fewer of his shots were coming in the isolation after holding the ball for fifteen seconds.

His three point percentage was actually increasing as the year went on. There was definitely a difference in the way he shot it...more arc, a little more fluidity in the release. I'm not saying he'd shoot 45% the rest of the year, but 38% or 40% is ridiculous.

Why is it crazy to say that a guy finally clicked with a system? Look at Richard Jefferson. He sucked for a year and finally got it together. Butler sucked for 9 months or so, no doubt, and he started the year terribly, but it looked like he was starting to get it together. No, there's some things he doesn't do, but Caron does score, and he'd been doing it better and better up until the injury. He looked comfortable, he was taking and hitting HIS shots, and it was finally all coming together, or so it seemed.

edit: Check out who's number two behind Dirk. just one stat, but interesting none the less.

jthig32 · 01-23-2011, 08:40 PM

Basically, Butler was awful for 14 games and pretty darn good for 14 games. He was certainly trending up when he got hurt, but I absolutely do not believe that his 3PT shooting, which was easily the biggest factor in his uptick during December, was going to continue.

Butler was valuable, but I think his value is being overstated because what he did is in such short supply right now. We're desperate for any kind of offense, even the completely mediocre offense that Butler provided overall.

There's absolutely no question that losing him hurt, I just don't agree with the people acting like replacing Butler is going to take a blockbuster trade of some sort. Peja alone could easily end up completely replacing Caron's offensive contributions.

LonghornDub · 01-23-2011, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

There's absolutely no question that losing him hurt, I just don't agree with the people acting like replacing Butler is going to take a blockbuster trade of some sort. Peja alone could easily end up completely replacing Caron's offensive contributions.

I don't think it would take a blockbuster, but it will take at least two moves if one is Peja. I don't agree that Peja can replace his contributions. It's much, much more than just an issue of offensive production, like I described.

jthig32 · 01-23-2011, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I don't think it would take a blockbuster, but it will take at least two moves if one is Peja. I don't agree that Peja can replace his contributions. It's much, much more than just an issue of offensive production, like I described.

Well, I did say that I felt that Peja could replace his OFFENSIVE contributions.

The rebounding, intangibles and drop off in defense, we'll just have to see.

dalger · 01-23-2011, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jthig32

Basically, Butler was awful for 14 games and pretty darn good for 14 games. He was certainly trending up when he got hurt, but I absolutely do not believe that his 3PT shooting, which was easily the biggest factor in his uptick during December, was going to continue.

Butler was valuable, but I think his value is being overstated because what he did is in such short supply right now. We're desperate for any kind of offense, even the completely mediocre offense that Butler provided overall.

There's absolutely no question that losing him hurt, I just don't agree with the people acting like replacing Butler is going to take a blockbuster trade of some sort. Peja alone could easily end up completely replacing Caron's offensive contributions.

It seems like we're all going for the extremes a little bit to get our point across. Some say Caron was mediocre and below average on offense, others say he was a crucial part to make the Mavs one of the three best teams in the league. The "truth" is probably to be found somewhere in between.

Just like you would bet a large sum that Caron hasn't turned into an elite 3-point shooter, I'd bet an equally large sum that Peja won't be able to replace Butler offensively. Not counting this season, which only provides a sample size of eight games, he had his last decent year in 07-08. Ever since, he's not been able to stay healthy (missing at least 20 games each year) and barely shot 40% from the field. Despite being a primary option on offense in NO, he only averaged around 13 PPG in 32-33 minutes per game. The numbers in the few games he's played this season are encouraging, but I'm not sure they're indicative of a trend for the better.

I'm not saying it's going to be impossible for him to be an adequate offensive player in a Mavs uniform, I just don't think it's the most likely scenario. Probably as likely as Caron being an elite 3-point shooter in the latter stages of his career...