PGT: Dallas 90, Boston 85

[howdoesmydirktaste]

I think Odom will click and then it will be happy in Mavs land.

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

You know how you have to be really careful around your girl when it's her period, because everything you do is definitely your fault? It sounds like that's what it's like to be around Lamar Odom...every single day.

Can't trade him soon enough. It was a nice try, yes. But he's not a good match here.

I would say that I would love to see you eat crow when Odom starts clicking, but there is enough of that to fill Cowboys Stadium from all of the naysayers last year, and I have yet to see most of them learn from it.

EDIT: And the fact that the dude above and I used the same terminology at the same moment is kinda weirding me out.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by ribosoma

I would say that I would love to see you eat crow when Odom starts clicking, but there is enough of that to fill Cowboys Stadium from all of the naysayers last year, and I have yet to see most of them learn from it.

EDIT: And the fact that the dude above and I used the same terminology at the same moment is kinda weirding me out.

I would love to eat crow, too! I'm just not seeing it, though. I put a lot of stock into the mental makeup of a player. I may be wrong...but Odom looks to me like: A) his primary focus is not on basketball...and ESPECIALLY not on Dallas Mavericks basketball...and B) he doesn't have much mental toughness.

That's my armchair view, though. I am not at all professing to know these things for sure. Yet, it is certainly enough for me to say I don't like him!

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by ribosoma

So, in the close games, the players who are performing the best get more minutes. Got it. And in games that aren't close, they get less. Got that, too. Add those up and you get their average MPG. How is this season any different from any other in that respect? How do the Mavs numbers compare in close games to every other team in the league this season? Given your interpretation of the mpg stats, is there a coach in the league who is not in "win-now" mode in close games?

I'm sorry but that's simply not correct. Some teams, mainly rebuilding teams, have a lot more consistency in their margin-adjusted MPG compared to their normal MPG. Of course everybody plays their best unit in crunch time, but maybe Carlisle tends to get back to his best starters even earlier as other coaches, don't know, haven't gotten into this particularly. I was mildly surprised that Carlisle let Roddy and company play out the Toronto game though because with the lead under 10 in the fourth you normally don't see any bench guys (outside Terry, foul trouble).

And what's really the reason for Odom's struggles is up to speculations. Probably a mixed bag. Maybe his will overcome his mental issues when getting comfortable on the court, maybe it's the other way round. Who knows. That's why I said my points are highly debatable, but not less fun to talk about it.

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

I would love to eat crow, too! I'm just not seeing it, though. I put a lot of stock into the mental makeup of a player. I may be wrong...but Odom looks to me like: A) his primary focus is not on basketball...and ESPECIALLY not on Dallas Mavericks basketball...and B) he doesn't have much mental toughness.

That's my armchair view, though. I am not at all professing to know these things for sure. Yet, it is certainly enough for me to say I don't like him!

To be fair, I don't see it now, either. I don't know how anyone could, even the biggest Lamar Odom fans out there. I just know his game and I've always liked his versatility. His skillset is very unique. A huge part of his game is in transition and that has everything to do with conditioning. Hopefully as he rounds into shape, his contributions in that area will give him confidence. He is also lethal as a secondary option in the pick and roll, dive-cutting from the weak side and exploiting mismatches. With one of the best PNR tandems in the league in Jet and Dirk, he will have a wonderful opportunity here. When you have a guy with his size and agility filling the paint after Terry gets past the screen or splits it, it opens up a whole new dimension to this thing.

He SHOULD flourish here. If he doesn't it will all be on him and his ass will be gone as soon as the trade deadline is on the horizon.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

Two completely different topics though. Can't use MPG for an estimation of 'win-now'. Adjust for overall importance of the game (final margin) and Dirk plays 36+ Minutes, Terry 34+, Kidd 31+ and Odom 16+

So that's that.

My opinion is based upon the fact that if you want players to help you/perform in certain spots in the future, you'll have to play them in those spots in the present regardless of their performance. It's a simple approach and happens all the time in sports, but mainly by teams that consider themselves "rebuilding" and not necessarily hunting for every available win. So if Odom should be a 25+ guy that helps you in 4th quarters and crunch time, he should play 25+ and in crunch time right now to learn the system and build up confidence.
I additionally believe that, given the comparably light schedule and the overall state of the league, he could be out there even without giving up too much (in terms of making the playoffs, even overall seeding).

That said, my point only stands if Odom's struggles are based on not getting comfortable with the system. Mental and physical condition is another story. Can't do much about that with more playing time.

It's debatable, but I kind of bought into that idea since reading a few scientific articles about the interdependency of playing time (in the spot the coach envisions for you) and performance. Play guys, they'll perform. Wait for them to perform and you probably wait a long, long time or at least longer than just play your guy and live with the results for a certain stretch.

I'm sure there is some merit to this angle. But...it doesn't match at all with Carlisle's style.

[j0Shi]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

I'm sure there is some merit to this angle. But...it doesn't match at all with Carlisle's style.

True.

One thing that could partially explain the margin adjusted MPG is the fact that Carlisle is hesitant to give players a lot more time when they're playing well (I should come up with a performance adjusted MPG now, don't have that). To exaggerate, I think Roddy & West could go for 20 in a tight game and Kidd/Terry would still be out there to finish things off. Other Coaches do sit starters or change their lineups more frequently according to the actual game-performance in my eyes.

Not judging, maybe I'm even wrong on this one (or on the effect to adjusted mpg).

[joebobbill]

I thought Odom made some nice contributions against Boston. It was probably the first game that he struck me as a net plus. I am liking the trend.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

True.

One thing that could partially explain the margin adjusted MPG is the fact that Carlisle is hesitant to give players a lot more time when they're playing well (I should come up with a performance adjusted MPG now, don't have that). To exaggerate, I think Roddy & West could go for 20 in a tight game and Kidd/Terry would still be out there to finish things off. Other Coaches do sit starters or change their lineups more frequently according to the actual game-performance in my eyes.

Not judging, maybe I'm even wrong on this one (or on the effect to adjusted mpg).

Carlisle is a guy who wants to feel out his entire roster. He wants to see all the different permutations. He wants everyone to "be ready." (And that may have as much to do with his "team first" mentality as it does with anything else.) He likes to go with what he knows when it counts, yes. But two things. One, he "knows" a lot more, based on what he has seen coming in. And two--and this is most important--he is not at all afraid to shake things up and go a different way when it counts, if he sees fit.

I greatly admire him for that. So many coaches are afraid to "color outside the lines," lest they make a misstep. Carlisle says he has so many bullets, and he isn't afraid to fire any of them.

[mavs777]

My internet hasn't been working past couple days but basically what I saw....
The Mavs are a very good half court defensive team, when Marion and West are playing together it is very hard to get open looks, the offense still needs a ton of work, missed Dirk open quite often and marion was missed a couple times for which would have been easy dunks. Roddy looks terrible on the offensive end at PG, Jet has done a much better job than him. The transition defense still needs a lot of work. Overall this team is making progress but it still has too improve in two key areas: transition defense and half court offense.

[alby]

Originally Posted by mavs777

My internet hasn't been working past couple days but basically what I saw....
The Mavs are a very good half court defensive team, when Marion and West are playing together it is very hard to get open looks, the offense still needs a ton of work, missed Dirk open quite often and marion was missed a couple times for which would have been easy dunks. Roddy looks terrible on the offensive end at PG, Jet has done a much better job than him. The transition defense still needs a lot of work. Overall this team is making progress but it still has too improve in two key areas: transition defense and half court offense.

Good points.

Personally, I am not worried about the half court offense. We all know during crunch time, when it really matters, we are going with the JET/Dirk two man game on the right side of the floor with two spot up shooters on the weak side and a big man crashing the offensive board. This has been our identity for over half a decade and it's not going to change. I'm assuming the reason we are seeing what we are seeing are because A) Carlisle is trying out new sets and getting a feel for each newcomer's tendencies, B) the Mavericks want to see what the new guys are made of and if our young guys can execute, and C) to put it simply, it's early in the season and it's not that important to run the bread and butter plays yet. We would love to win every game, but our team and coaching staff both realize the big picture and that is to have everyone buying into the system and playing well at the end of the year.

As long as we are giving good defensive effort, continuing to integrate the new veterans into the system, and that the team is HEALTHY going into the playoffs, I'm happy. Let other teams, the media, etc. underestimate the Mavericks during the first half of the season all they want. Ultimately, we know during those crucial moments (on the road in Boston), we can go to what we know best and our guys who have been there before will execute.

[Budapest Maverick]

Originally Posted by dude1394

You think so? He appeared tentative and did what jjb used to do, pound the ball aimlessly. Then that pathetic attempt at a layup just promotes how tentative he played. I did see some decent defensive pressure which is welcome, but he just doesn't seem to yet know how to play if he isn't making threes.

No, he didn't pound the ball aimlessly, or he did it only on one possession. He had a nice transition assist for a Terry 3, and a huge bucket before half time, and played good defense, as he does this year. His shot is obviously streaky as hell, but i think it has a lot to do with his playing time, and his confidence or more like lack thereof.

The other thing. I love Dirk, there will never be a player that i will like even remotely close, but i hate his body language after Roddy mistakes. I absolutely hate it, and i think it's just makes things worse for the kid. Obviously, i'm not saying it's completely on the team, and on the coaching staff that he's stuck on his development curve, it's a complex problem, but i think they are part of the problem at this point.

I still think he could give us a different dimension, and i really hope they don't give up on him, and at the very least, he can be a key scoring punch for us from the bench, in the upcoming years.

[nowhereman]

So looking at Synergy Sports data, I briefly checked out Odom v. Marion this year. I think this is a little enlightening. (Marion has been in 122 plays, Odom has been in 109 plays... that seems close enough to me to be worth a comparison). PPP = "points per possession"

Marion
Overall PPP = .88
5.7% of his plays have been in isolation (.86 PPP)
19.7% of his plays have been cuts (1.08 PPP)

vs.

Odom
Overall PPP = .65
19.3% of his plays have been isolation (1.05 PPP)
6.4% of his plays have been cuts (1.14 PPP)

Using stats from this article, Odom's cuts are down from 16.4% last year to 6.4% this year.

That's a huge shift and I think it really isolates the one area where his offensive game is dramatically different this year. I think the fewer cuts can be based on a number of things - to name a few, fatigue, knowledge of the offensive scheme (and being outside the triangle offense), lack of engagement, having the ball in his hands more (which I think is a big part of it), and his teammates not looking for him or able to get the ball to him on cuts.

However, that has to be the big fix going forward offensively. That he's had already something like 12 fewer basket cuts on his offensive plays (replaced instead with shots where his PPP are almost .5 points lower), not to count the number of times he's not even made cuts at all, speaks to a huge part of his productivity drop-off.

[nowhereman]

(and based on this headline from a bitter writer from the LA Times, I should be an expert here, right?)

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec...coast-20120101

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

So looking at Synergy Sports data, I briefly checked out Odom v. Marion this year. I think this is a little enlightening. (Marion has been in 122 plays, Odom has been in 109 plays... that seems close enough to me to be worth a comparison). PPP = "points per possession"

Marion
Overall PPP = .88
5.7% of his plays have been in isolation (.86 PPP)
19.7% of his plays have been cuts (1.08 PPP)

vs.

Odom
Overall PPP = .65
19.3% of his plays have been isolation (1.05 PPP)
6.4% of his plays have been cuts (1.14 PPP)

Using stats from this article, Odom's cuts are down from 16.4% last year to 6.4% this year.

That's a huge shift and I think it really isolates the one area where his offensive game is dramatically different this year. I think the fewer cuts can be based on a number of things - to name a few, fatigue, knowledge of the offensive scheme (and being outside the triangle offense), lack of engagement, having the ball in his hands more (which I think is a big part of it), and his teammates not looking for him or able to get the ball to him on cuts.

However, that has to be the big fix going forward offensively. That he's had already something like 12 fewer basket cuts on his offensive plays (replaced instead with shots where his PPP are almost .5 points lower), not to count the number of times he's not even made cuts at all, speaks to a huge part of his productivity drop-off.

Those numbers are enlightening and match what my eyes have been telling me so far this season. There is such a threat from the Terry/Dirk PNR that defenders have to commit to defending it with with at least three defenders; the two primary defenders and their bigs if Terry splits or gets around the screen unabated. The way the Mavs have traditionally adjusted to an aggressive PNR defense is to draw and kick for an open look on the wing or baseline, or if the defense doesn't allow the play to develop via switching defenders, the freethrow line post up for Dirk on a small, or an iso post look for Marion. Those seem to be the tendencies. Odom gives you something very nasty when the defense decides to switch and shadow Dirk with a second defender to take away the drive down the lane. He can exploit the fact that at least one defender is going to have his head turned and dive to the hoop. And that is not good at all for the opponent. If Dirk takes the contested shot and actually misses (rare), Odom is in prime rebounding position, and if Dirk looks to draw the double team out away from the basket or at least floor the ball to make the second defender honor a move to the basket, Odom gets an open look at the rim and/or a chance to earn freebies from the line and get the opponent into foul trouble. I think that with a few more practices and games, Odom will start to figure out his role on this team. And that added dimension could make the already lethal 2 man game even more dangerous.

Also, once Kidd gets back, I would expect to see more low block looks for Lamar working off of low double-screens designed to get a mismatch, as well as mid-range opportunities from the high post when the opponent goes into a zone look. Those are ways that his teams have utilized his abilities in the past, and I think that when we start to see some of them utilized here, it will be a good indicator that he is on the right track.

I feel that his success here is just as much about his teammates getting accustomed to his game as it is him getting into shape and learning a new system.

[nowhereman]

Originally Posted by ribosoma

Odom gives you something very nasty when the defense decides to switch and shadow Dirk with a second defender to take away the drive down the lane. He can exploit the fact that at least one defender is going to have his head turned and dive to the hoop. And that is not good at all for the opponent. If Dirk takes the contested shot and actually misses (rare), Odom is in prime rebounding position, and if Dirk looks to draw the double team out away from the basket or at least floor the ball to make the second defender honor a move to the basket, Odom gets an open look at the rim and/or a chance to earn freebies from the line and get the opponent into foul trouble. I think that with a few more practices and games, Odom will start to figure out his role on this team. And that added dimension could make the already lethal 2 man game even more dangerous.

Yeah - I definitely think he could be dangerous in this situation if he does go to the rim after the Dirk/JET pick and roll, or when Jet sets an (off-the-ball) strong-side screen for Dirk (e.g. the final Dallas play of game 2 of the Finals last year, or the play against Boston on Wednesday).

But I think that's precisely the problem - he hasn't been playing off-the-ball nearly as much as I would like him to. Shawn has been really useful when he makes his baseline cuts in these instances. While I don't really remember seeing much of this situation this year, from what I have seen I am under the impression that Lamar just kinda stands around instead. When he gets the ball, he pounds it into the floor, doesn't know where to move it around, forces a shot, or makes a contested drive or turnover.

Also, a big part of the confusion when he and Dirk are both in the game is when both of them go up to set an on-the-ball pick. This isn't your normal mavs designed double on-the-ball pick set, which is a 4-5 pick, but rather it's clearly undesigned, with both the 3 and the 4 running up to set the pick and killing our spacing. If in his sets with Dirk, we can get him set at the baseline and have him active enough to cut like Shawn does, we'd be in better shape.