Who stays and who goes?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

In the unlikely scenario that the Rockets consider trading us Asik, they'd almost certainly want to dump Lin with him. And I also think they'd ask for Marion and maybe a pick as well.

Yeah, no... They can suck it if they think we're doing them any favors beyond taking Asik's contract off their books - we have no use for Lin.

Besides, Houston doesn't really have any leverage over the Mavs since we have plenty of other options this summer.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

In the unlikely scenario that the Rockets consider trading us Asik, they'd almost certainly want to dump Lin with him. And I also think they'd ask for Marion and maybe a pick as well.

They know they're not dumping Lin (sans Parsons) on anybody. "We'll trade you Asik if you'll take Lin" means the same thing as "We're not going to trade you Asik".

As for Marion, if Houston wants him, they can negotiate with him directly, and use their MLE to sign him. Dallas isn't going to help them out there for Asik/Lin.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

In the unlikely scenario that the Rockets consider trading us Asik, they'd almost certainly want to dump Lin with him. And I also think they'd ask for Marion and maybe a pick as well.

Actually don't think that that would be the worst thing ever. Lin is no worse defensively than Calderon and is a pretty active slasher. Both Asik and Lin are paid a lot, but both are expiring with bird rights. We could let them walk or else sign them to more practical deals, after next year.

I just wouldn't give them a pick, too. That's a lot of salary to pick up. The most I would offer if we took both was a first rounder for 1-2 of their second rounders.

[spreedom]

Spacing with Dwight and Wright in at the same time... yuck. And Wright's defensive deficiencies would cause Dwight to have to work even harder at that end than he already is. Like I said, I like the trade from our perspective and cap-wise, it's a pretty good deal for Houston.

I think the only types of centers that Wright can consistently play next to would be guys like Al Jefferson, the Gasols, and dudes like that: guys that are very good in the post but can also pass, and hit 18-footers.

Now that I think about it, I think Wright would actually be a great fit in Charlotte... defensively he doesn't really fit anywhere, but he could seemingly play offense next to Jefferson or McRoberts...

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

I think the only way Asik goes here is if that somehow ensures that Rockets get Melo or another big time name this offseason.

If Dallas is in play in one scenario, they're in play in others as well. The Rockets can't afford not to trade Asik this summer, IMO, and Dallas has multiple ways of providing the Rockets with things that would be valuable to them. It really comes down to: 1) whether the Rockets are at all willing to make a mutually beneficial trade with Dallas, and if so, 2) whether somebody else comes up with a better offer. I'll freely admit I really have no idea about #1. As for #2, though, based on the way this last year played out I have to say that I'm more than a little skeptical that there's going to be much competition for Asik.

[sefant77]

There are also rumors the Mavs would be interesting in bringing back Tyson. I could see this too if we are striking out on other center options.

Of course Knicks fans dreaming allready about a huge TPE + Larkin + pick but this wont happen. Mavs wont blow cap space for Tyson, would be more something like Wright + Ellington + Larkin. I think thats a solid option or Plan B/C too

[jthig32]

Put me in the camp of someone that thinks Wright is a terrible fit next to Dwight on offense. Dwight works best with a stretch four that can hit 3's. Ryan Anderson, for example.

[sefant77]

Well, he should be mostly be considered as backup C. Of course he wouldnt be a perfect fit to play with Dwight but same goes with Asik.

Morey is switching basically players for the same role. Backup center and meh fit to play together...

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Well, he should be mostly be considered as backup C. Of course he wouldnt be a perfect fit to play with Dwight but same goes with Asik.

Morey is switching basically players for the same role. Backup center and meh fit to play together...

Right but Asik is their best trade chip (of the pieces they want to move). Unless they're unloading his contract to sign Melo (in which case they're not taking back Wright's 5 Mil) I don't see them trading Asik for a backup center. Asik's already a better backup center than they're going to acquire. They're going to move that chip for something that fits better, and I don't think that's Wright.

[sike]

The hot stove is ON!

Love hearing these trade ideas!

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Right but Asik is their best trade chip (of the pieces they want to move). Unless they're unloading his contract to sign Melo (in which case they're not taking back Wright's 5 Mil) I don't see them trading Asik for a backup center. Asik's already a better backup center than they're going to acquire. They're going to move that chip for something that fits better, and I don't think that's Wright.

Three questions:

As much as Wright falls well short of the stretch four ideal, isn't he still a considerably better fit next to Dwight than Asik?

What sort of offers are you expecting them to get? Teams weren't exactly lining up with significant offers last year.

How long do you expect Houston can drag things out? Asik and his agent aren't going to suddenly be okay with Omer coming off the bench again, what with this being a contract year for him.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

Three questions:

As much as Wright falls well short of the stretch four ideal, isn't he still a considerably better fit next to Dwight than Asik?

Yes

What sort of offers are you expecting them to get? Teams weren't exactly lining up with significant offers last year.

Hard to say, obviously. The rumors during Feb were they wanted a first round pick and the indication seemed to be that they also wanted to take back little or no salary (to help chase Melo).

That's a pretty stout asking price in today's NBA.

How long do you expect Houston can drag things out? Asik and his agent aren't going to suddenly be okay with Omer coming off the bench again, what with this being a contract year for him.

I mean, they don't really seem to care whether he's happy, right? If they cared they'd have traded him last offseason or this trade deadline.

I think they'll be anxious to move him to create more cap flexibility to chase Melo, but again, that rules out a trade for Wright. If they can't move him for cap space and they give up on Melo, maybe they trade him for Wright, but it seems to me once they become willing to take back some salary they can get something that fits better than Wright.

It just doesn't feel like a great fit at all. Now, maybe we move Wright and some other things for a first and trade that for Asik and absorb his salary. I could see that.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I mean, they don't really seem to care whether he's happy, right? If they cared they'd have traded him last offseason or this trade deadline.

Just fwiw, my suspicion is that they wanted to trade him last year, initially overestimated his value, and then couldn't even get anything like a fair offer with his knee ailing.

[spreedom]

As ludicrous as this sounds, I'm pretty sure the Rockets were looking for two first round picks for Asik, and they were hoping to get the deal done sometime around mid-December if I remember correctly. It had something to do with the team acquiring him being able to package him in another deal near the trade deadline.

[spreedom]

Not sure if anyone's shared this yet:

http://mavsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/...anziation.html

Mavericks want Devin Harris back, look forward to him being a ‘permanent fixture within the Mavericks’ organziation’

The Mavericks have six free agents: Dirk Nowitzki, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion, Devin Harris, DeJuan Blair and Bernard James.

Of those, Nowitzki is a lock to return and Carter is close behind. Marion has made it clear he might opt for a better shot to win a title, but he’s not opposed to returning.

Blair and James will explore their options.

That leaves Harris, who is hopeful of returning.

And the Mavericks would like nothing better.

“Devin has just meant the world to this franchise,” president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson said. “It was an awkward situation this summer with his injury. Our big goal for Devin was to be healthy and not to have that toe be an issue.

“We look forward to Devin being a permanent fixture within the Mavericks’ organization. We hope that will be the case.”

Harris does too, but he also is cognizant that the business side of the NBA can throw curveballs at you.

“My intent is to come back, but only time will tell,” Harris said. “My initial reaction to the season is to come back and play longer, but stranger things have happened. If everything goes like it’s supposed to, I expect to be back next year.”

His hope is to sign a multiyear contract. He said he “would rather not” do a one-year deal.

“I agreed to three years initially [last summer before the surgery], so we’re kind of eyeing somewhere in that area,” he said.

Well, we can say for sure that the Mavs want Devin back (presumably "at the right price") and that Devin wants to be back. Now hopefully we can get the chips to fall into place accordingly so we can lock him up for a few years.

Sounds like that original 3yr/$9M deal might still be in play... if it is, I hope we lock that down the first day of free agency, after also tending to Dirk and seeing how likely it is that we can bring Vince and Marion (in a reduced role) back.

[sefant77]

Morey overrated his trade value, asking for the two 1st was a joke. The new CBA changed the value of pics a lot. And last year the return was Asik for two seasons for an overall solid salary, now its one season for a LOT of money. And everyone knows Asik wont accept another trade delay...so his value dropped a lot.

Just one more season before he is an UFA, Asik wont accept a delay of his trade, poison pill kicking it. Have fun finding a good trade, Morey

Thats why i said Wright could be one of the better players available in an Asik trade. If they take the deal or maybe prefer to trade for an less talented (than Wright) SF
is their decision...

[EricaLubarsky]

Harris is good news. He can probably be had for 3yrs/9mill, which is fair for a guy who is a borderline starter and was our best defensive player last year.

[Eman]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Agreed - history has proven that we can't have a subpar defender holding down the 5 next to Dirk... I want absolutely nothing to do with Monroe.

Greg Monroe is 23 years old!!!!!!!! and gets over 15 points and over 9 boards a game! He also gets 1.4 steals a game which is not bad. I think if he's available, he may be a great get, with Carlisle teaching him some defensive techniques.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Morey overrated his trade value, asking for the two 1st was a joke. The new CBA changed the value of pics a lot. And last year the return was Asik for two seasons for an overall solid salary, now its one season for a LOT of money. And everyone knows Asik wont accept another trade delay...so his value dropped a lot.

Just one more season before he is an UFA, Asik wont accept a delay of his trade, poison pill kicking it. Have fun finding a good trade, Morey

Thats why i said Wright could be one of the better players available in an Asik trade. If they take the deal or maybe prefer to trade for an less talented (than Wright) SF
is their decision...

That and there are a lot of great centers. For a while there were only like 3-4 centers in the league so people could charge for non-stars like Asik.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Eman

Greg Monroe is 23 years old!!!!!!!! and gets over 15 points and over 9 boards a game! He also gets 1.4 steals a game which is not bad. I think if he's available, he may be a great get, with Carlisle teaching him some defensive techniques.

The rebounding is nice, but we don't need more scoring - we need defense, especially from the center position. Remember the other day when Parker got whatever the hell he wanted in the paint? Greg Monroe isn't going to fix that.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

The rebounding is nice, but we don't need more scoring - we need defense, especially from the center position. Remember the other day when Parker got whatever the hell he wanted in the paint? Greg Monroe isn't going to fix that.

Pretty much. He's like a slightly stronger Brandan Wright if you swapped Wright's jumper for a little bit more rebounding.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Pretty much. He's like a slightly stronger Brandan Wright if you swapped Wright's jumper for a little bit more rebounding.

A little bit more rebounding? A jump from 4 to 9 is more than a little.

I'm on the fence with Monroe as well, but come on...Monroe is much better than Wright.

[EricaLubarsky]

Free agent targets
Thabo Sefolosha - legit size, strong perimeter defense, potential to score, wants bigger role
Carmello - legitimate star for post-Dirk days. Probably not so good to play with Dirk. Will take all of our cap, so you'd better be happy with Ellis/Dirk/Melo/Dally for next year.
Deng- Top 10 SF in the league. Good defense and physicality. Above average rebounding. Decent offensive game.
Ariza - good 3/4 tweener who plays well on both sides of the court. Can hit the three.
Lance Stephenson - Mavs say they aren't interested. Rebounds as well as any guard since Kidd, and defends well but a headcase and not our highest need position.
Gordon Hayward - Decent 2/3 who can do a little of everything. AWful defense, but good ballhandling and rebounding (from the 2).
Greg Monroe - Wright version 1.1. Is slightly better than Wright at rebounding, but has no range on his offense and like Wright is poor defensively. Not a monster on the boards
Pau Gasol - whiny and possibly done, but incredibly talented.
Spencer Hawes- Not a strong defender or rebounder. Do we want a Raef LaFrentz type?
Marcin Gortat - Strong at everything you'd want a center to be next to Dirk.
Kyle Lowry - Works as hard as anyone in the league. Plays his ass off. Will he work with Ellis?


Trade targets
Chandler - possibly injury-prone, but a strong rebounder and defensive guy
Hibbert - when he's healthy and has his head in the game, he could be a strong defensive anchor. Not a great rebounder and speed kills with him, but has shown potential to be an elite defensive force.
Larry Sanders - In '12-'13 he had a record year. Then he got his contract and was wracked with injuries and personal issues. Would he be more like Lamar Odom or more like Nick Van Exel? Hard to tell.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

A little bit more rebounding? A jump from 4 to 9 is more than a little.

I'm on the fence with Monroe as well, but come on...Monroe is much better than Wright.

Comparing RPG is an awful way to measure rebounding.

Hollinger's Rebound rate 18+ is what you want from a starting center
Monroe 15.4, which would put him about 35th in the league,
Wright 13.1

Advanced rebound rating 30+ is what you want from a center
Monroe 28.6
Wright 24.8

Both guys fall short of what you want (particularly next to Dirk) and both guys are extremely similar in the rebounding categories.

[DGM]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Pretty much. He's like a slightly stronger Brandan Wright if you swapped Wright's jumper for a little bit more rebounding.

Wright really needs to work on his jumper. I hate to see him get the ball 15 feet from the basket and look to pass. He won't even look at the basket. If he can develop his jump shot he can make himself a much more valuable player.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Comparing RPG is an awful way to measure rebounding.

Hollinger's Rebound rate 18+ is what you want from a starting center
Monroe 15.4, which would put him about 35th in the league,
Wright 13.1

Advanced rebound rating 30+ is what you want from a center
Monroe 28.6
Wright 24.8

Both guys fall short of what you want (particularly next to Dirk) and both guys are extremely similar in the rebounding categories.

Rebounding "rates" don't translate into actual rebounds though. The fact of the matter is that Monroe can get you 10-15 rebounds on any given night. Wright had 10 or more rebounds in all of two games last season. Guess how many Monroe had? 40. There is no way that Wright would ever grab that many rebounds under any circumstance.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Rebounding "rates" don't translate into actual rebounds though. The fact of the matter is that Monroe can get you 10-15 rebounds on any given night. Wright had 10 or more rebounds in all of two games last season. Guess how many Monroe had? 40. There is no way that Wright would ever grab that many rebounds under any circumstance.

Both stats I linked are advanced stats that measure the successful rebounds versus the rebounds available.

Your argument doesn't seem to be based in logic, but rather a doubling down on the idea of RPG stats instead of some advanced metric or even looking at rebounds per minute/per 48, etc. Of course Monroe will have more 10-rebound games. He played more. Is JR Smith the best jump shooter of all time? He certainly shoots a lot, but I'd personally want to look at percentages or advanced stats.

[yahyes]

So I see ESPN Dallas mentioned something about Melo. Hmm.. sounds highly tempting. You'd have a prolific offense potential. Basically going all in with Dirk's last years of greatness.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Both stats I linked are advanced stats that measure the successful rebounds versus the rebounds available.

Your argument doesn't seem to be based in logic, but rather a doubling down on the idea of RPG stats instead of some advanced metric or even looking at rebounds per minute/per 48, etc. Of course Monroe will have more 10-rebound games. He played more. Is JR Smith the best jump shooter of all time? He certainly shoots a lot, but I'd personally want to look at percentages or advanced stats.

Logic? Seriously? You honestly think if Wright had as many minutes as Monroe that he'd average that many rebounds per game? Not sure if serious.

[Eman]

Originally Posted by Underdog

The rebounding is nice, but we don't need more scoring - we need defense, especially from the center position. Remember the other day when Parker got whatever the hell he wanted in the paint? Greg Monroe isn't going to fix that.

aww, but the Spurs would get less second chance points, and, can you imagine if our Center gave us 15 every night? With Monta feeding him off the drive and Dirk keeping people out of the paint, maybe he gets 18?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Logic? Seriously? You honestly think if Wright had as many minutes as Monroe that he'd average that many rebounds per game? Not sure if serious.

No, I think that given the same minutes, he'd average slightly fewer (about 7.5) as I said.

Both Monroe and Wright are sub-par rebounders. Wright is a little bit more so. They are almost neck-and-neck in advanced rebounding stats.

Both are awful defenders, both are sub-par rebounders. Wright is light-years ahead on offense. Monroe isn't quite as bad at rebounding. It's been my point this whole time.

[Eman]

How is Monroe at rebounding compared to Dally?

[grndmstr_c]

Re: Monroe/Wright/rebounding, you also have to take the team context into account, I think. Monroe was frequently out on the court with Drummond, whereas Brandan was out there with Dirk. Monroe was frequently facing a completely different level of competition for rebounds from his teammates than Brandan was. I tend to side with DHWS in thinking that Monroe would constitute a significant upgrade on the boards relative to Wright.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Eman

How is Monroe at rebounding compared to Dally?

RP36 (raw rebounding numbers per 36minutes-- favors fast-break teams who miss/cause misses a lot and players who play with other, weak rebounding players)
Asik 14.1
Howard 13.5
Dalembert 12.1
Blair 10.4
Monroe 9.3
Wright 8.2


Hollinger's rebound rate ("the percentage of missed shots that a team rebounds. Rebound Rate = (Rebounds x Team Minutes) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]")
Asik 21.70
Howard 20.10
Blair 17.33
Dalembert 16.88
Monroe 15.40
Wright 13.10

Rebound rating (basically a measure of available rebounds, vs. % of rebounds pulled in and compares team rebound % on/off to correct for playing with strong rebounders. Probably the most accurate measure)
Asik 37.5
Howard 35.4
Dalembert 35.3
Blair 31.8
Monroe 28.6
Wright 24.8

In all of those measures, Monroe is superior to Wright by only a little, but inferior to both Blair and Dalembert

[Underdog]

Why are you guys comparing Monroe to Wright when you should be comparing him to Chandler, Sanders, Asik, Hibbert, Gortat and all the other centers we're going to target this summer?

[Melonhead]

If Wright got Monroe minutes, his stats would not be where they're at now. I like Wright for what he does, but it comes at a limited role.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Why are you guys comparing Monroe to Wright when you should be comparing him to Chandler, Sanders, Asik, Hibbert, Gortat and all the other centers we're going to target this summer?

Challenge accepted (when I get home from the gym)

[Melonhead]

Why did Ellis opt not to speak during exit interviews? Its not like there were nosey questions. Just general team stuff.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Free agent targets
Thabo Sefolosha - legit size, strong perimeter defense, potential to score, wants bigger role
Carmello - legitimate star for post-Dirk days. Probably not so good to play with Dirk. Will take all of our cap, so you'd better be happy with Ellis/Dirk/Melo/Dally for next year.
Deng- Top 10 SF in the league. Good defense and physicality. Above average rebounding. Decent offensive game.
Ariza - good 3/4 tweener who plays well on both sides of the court. Can hit the three.
Lance Stephenson - Mavs say they aren't interested. Rebounds as well as any guard since Kidd, and defends well but a headcase and not our highest need position.
Gordon Hayward - Decent 2/3 who can do a little of everything. AWful defense, but good ballhandling and rebounding (from the 2).
Greg Monroe - Wright version 1.1. Is slightly better than Wright at rebounding, but has no range on his offense and like Wright is poor defensively. Not a monster on the boards
Pau Gasol - whiny and possibly done, but incredibly talented.
Spencer Hawes- Not a strong defender or rebounder. Do we want a Raef LaFrentz type?
Marcin Gortat - Strong at everything you'd want a center to be next to Dirk.
Kyle Lowry - Works as hard as anyone in the league. Plays his ass off. Will he work with Ellis?


Trade targets
Chandler - possibly injury-prone, but a strong rebounder and defensive guy
Hibbert - when he's healthy and has his head in the game, he could be a strong defensive anchor. Not a great rebounder and speed kills with him, but has shown potential to be an elite defensive force.
Larry Sanders - In '12-'13 he had a record year. Then he got his contract and was wracked with injuries and personal issues. Would he be more like Lamar Odom or more like Nick Van Exel? Hard to tell.

I'd add Okafor to the FA list. If healthy would be a great fit next to Dirk and could possibly come at a bargain price.

[yahyes]

You wanna trade for Tyson, folks? We got 3 draft picks and Wright for it. Let's try to sign Melo while at it. While asking Marion and Carter to comeback for a 1 year.