Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[Janett_Reno]

Iraq war could cost taxpayers $2.7 trillion

In addition to the cost of war, taxpayers pay for rising veteran health care costs, and returning soldiers faced with foreclosure and unemployment.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news..._international

As the Iraq war continues with no clear end in sight, the cost to taxpayers may balloon to $2.7 trillion by the time the conflict comes to an end, according to Congressional testimony.

In a hearing held by the Joint Economic Committee Thursday, members of Congress heard testimony about the current costs of the war and the future economic fallout from returning soldiers.

At the beginning of the conflict in 2003, the Bush administration gave Congress a cost estimate of $60 billion to $100 billion for the entirety of the war. But the battle has been dragging on much longer than most in the government expected, and costs have ballooned to nearly ten times the original estimate.

William Beach, director of the Center for Data Analysis, told members of Congress that the Iraq war has already cost taxpayers $646 billion. That's only accounting for five years, and, with the conflict expected to drag on for another five years, the figure is expected to more than quadruple. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., told members of Congress that the war costs taxpayers about $430 million per day, and called out the Bush Administration.

"It is long past time for the administration to come clean and account for the real costs of the war in Iraq," said Schumer. "If they want to disagree with our estimates or with other experts ... fine - they should come and explain why."

The Bush Administration, which was invited to give testimony, declined to participate.

The Pentagon has previously said that the war costs approximately $9.5 billion a month, but some economists say the figure is closer to $25 billion a month when long-term health care for veterans and interest are factored in.

Health care: In testimony before the committee, Dr. Christine Eibner, an Associate Economist with research firm RAND, said advances in armor technology have kept alive many soldiers who would have been killed in prior wars. But that has added to post-war health care costs for veterans, especially for "unseen" wounds like post traumatic stress disorder, major depression and traumatic brain injury.

Two-year post-deployment health care costs for the 1.6 million service members currently in Iraq and Afghanistan could range from $4 billion to $6.2 billion, according to Eibner. For one year of treatment, the costs are substantially lower, ranging from $591 million to $910 million. Eibner admitted that the study did not take into account long term care, and her estimates probably underestimate the total costs.

However, Eibner noted that an increasing number of soldiers are not seeking the care that they need, which affects their ability to get and maintain jobs. And, that, she said, must change.

"Many service members are currently reluctant to seek mental health treatment due to fear of negative career repercussions," said Eibner. "Policies must be changed so that there are no perceived or real adverse career consequences for individuals who seek treatment."

Unemployment: Furthermore, many veterans who recently completed their service are coming back to a difficult job and housing market.

Among veterans who completed their service within the last 1 to 3 years, 18% were unemployed, and 25% earned less than $21,840 a year, according to a recent report commissioned by the Department of Veterans Affairs.

"Trying to convince [job interviewers] that my service will translate into skills ... at a bottling factory or a distributing company is almost like you're speaking French to someone who doesn't speak French," said Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America policy associate Tom Tarantino.

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer agreed, saying the government does a poor job at readying veterans for post-Army life.

"We haven't figured out how to convert a warrior to a citizen yet," Schweitzer told the committee.

Foreclosure: Many soldiers who come home from active duty are also finding difficulty keeping their homes.

"Military families are already shouldering heavy burdens to care for and support families while their loved ones are serving abroad or recovering at home," said Schumer. "Knowing that so many more are losing their homes to foreclosure is heartbreaking -- and its just plain wrong."

The senator said that Army personnel returning from duty are at a 37% higher risk of foreclosure, because the areas populated by military families have substantially larger foreclosure rates.

"Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan deserve better," testified Tarantino.

Tarantino recommended Congress quickly sign into law an update to the World War II GI Bill, which would help ease the economic hardships returning solders are feeling.

"More than any other single piece of legislation, the GI Bill will make a difference in the economic futures of the troops returning every day from Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Robbing the tax payers for oil is wrong. Then sending troops over to do a wonderful job and at every angle when they get home, neocons do not want to help our troops. With jobs, with healthcare, with nothing. It is really sad if you ask me and Obama needs to tell these things over and over again. A war for oil and war for Israel and the number one thing the neocons was afraid of was Iran. So now Iraq gov seems to be buddying up to Iran. I would say the neocons made a very dumb move.

As far as dude being upset with Big Daddy Bush for not invading Iraq and fighting the war then, i disagree dude and say Big Daddy Bush was very much smarter than Weasel. Taking Sadam out, you make Iran stronger. He used his brain and drove Sadam back home and then he brought the troops home. Big Daddy wasn't after Iraqi oil and he knew and the adm knew that going into Iraq and staying was going to be what we got now and have had. This was wasn't fought over no Al Queda, it was none in Iraq. They claim it was all about weapons of mass destruction and then others have said it was about oil and also the fact Sadam was not a good neighbor to Israel.

This isn't chump change we are talking about but alot of money this adm has drained of people and you make up your mind for what? Again, Big Daddy Bush was much better pres and much wiser than his son or the neocons.

[dude1394]

How much is theOne going to spend in Afghanistan? How many soldiers will he sacrifice?

[Janett_Reno]

Afghanistan is where Al Queda was, where Laden was and the Taliban. It borders a country in Pakistan where Queda and the Taliban run back and forth the borders. We have to figure out something about Pakistan. It is a hard thing when they are your allies and when Queda is all in that country running back into Afghanistan. This was where alot of the people planned attacks on 9/11, had training camps, the country was held hostage by these people. This was where most terror plaining was comming from. Bush was right going into here and he did good going here. We just didn't hunt Laden down enough and cross over into Pakistan and finish him. I know eliminating him won't solve Queda and terror but it shows we will do what it takes to bring justice. It will make others think and it also shows we will go into anywhere to hunt down the people that did this to us.

We can't and won't let Afghanistan go back to where it was. It was people flying in from all over the middle east to train and join Queda in those camps. Then to send them out and create havoc. We have ever right to be in Afghanistan and to weed terror out and eliminate it the best we can.

I agree it is hard, just like Iraq or anywhere else in the middle east with fanatics comming across but this was the country where terror was comming from, being planned and shipped into to train them for terror. This was a place even Clinton should have went into sooner or did what we was going to do when he was in and was called off. Two countries dude that is very important to try to keep terror down and to do something about is Afghanistan and Pakistan. They hide in many countries and middle east but these two here was very bad. They are important and the cost of the Iraq war could have went into Afghanistan and other things we needed it directed to. Bush did a great job going into Afghanistan and he did a horrible job going into Iraq, for whatever reason he went in there.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Afghanistan is where Al Queda was, where Laden was and the Taliban. It borders a country in Pakistan where Queda and the Taliban run back and forth the borders. We have to figure out something about Pakistan. It is a hard thing when they are your allies and when Queda is all in that country running back into Afghanistan. This was where alot of the people planned attacks on 9/11, had training camps, the country was held hostage by these people. This was where most terror plaining was comming from. Bush was right going into here and he did good going here. We just didn't hunt Laden down enough and cross over into Pakistan and finish him. I know eliminating him won't solve Queda and terror but it shows we will do what it takes to bring justice. It will make others think and it also shows we will go into anywhere to hunt down the people that did this to us.

We can't and won't let Afghanistan go back to where it was. It was people flying in from all over the middle east to train and join Queda in those camps. Then to send them out and create havoc. We have ever right to be in Afghanistan and to weed terror out and eliminate it the best we can.

I agree it is hard, just like Iraq or anywhere else in the middle east with fanatics comming across but this was the country where terror was comming from, being planned and shipped into to train them for terror. This was a place even Clinton should have went into sooner or did what we was going to do when he was in and was called off. Two countries dude that is very important to try to keep terror down and to do something about is Afghanistan and Pakistan. They hide in many countries and middle east but these two here was very bad. They are important and the cost of the Iraq war could have went into Afghanistan and other things we needed it directed to. Bush did a great job going into Afghanistan and he did a horrible job going into Iraq, for whatever reason he went in there.

How much is theOne going to spend in Afghanistan? How many soldiers will he sacrifice?

[wmbwinn]

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Barack Obama’s travels abroad were the focus of the news a week ago, but our latest polling finds that it really didn’t make any difference in the numbers at all.

In the first nationwide survey after the trip’s end, Rasmussen Reports found that Obama failed to sway most voters with his overseas venture. In our daily Presidential Tracking Poll, the presidential contest, after a brief Berlin bounce, is right back where it was -- with Obama just fractionally ahead of John McCain.

Offsetting the good news for Republicans was Tuesday’s indictment of longtime Alaska GOP Senator Ted Stevens for trying to cover up more than $250,000 in illegal gifts. Again, Rasmussen Reports had the first survey of Alaska voters after the indictment was announced and found Stevens, who is seeking his seventh six-year Senate term, dropping dramatically in the polls. McCain is holding on to a five-percentage point lead in the state.

While the news at times appears to be all-Obama-all-the-time, the number of uncommitted voters right now is far higher than at this point in the 2004 election cycle. While much has been made of McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans.

But McCain has the support of 30% of conservative Democrats.

For Obama this week, the good news is that more voters say they are willing to vote for an African-American presidential candidate than ever before. They're a little less sure about their family and friends.

With both parties zeroing in on their upcoming national political conventions, the candidates themselves are getting down to their “short lists” of possible running mates. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who challenged McCain during the Republican primaries, and independent Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman, who was his party’s vice presidential nominee in 2000, are the most favorably viewed of the GOP’s rumored vice presidential prospects.

When it comes to whom voters like among Obama’s possible running mates, the favorites are the also-rans – Senator Hillary Clinton and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, who both ran against Obama in the Democratic primaries. But according to news reports, neither is likely to get the nod. (Fueled by a Drudge Report headline and heavy buzz inside the Beltway, Rasmussen Markets data shows a surge in expectations that Virginia Governor Tim Kaine will be Obama’s choice.)

Voters this week also told us:

-- Americans are nearly evenly divided on which is more important– cracking down on oil speculators or lifting the ban on offshore drilling. As far as public opinion is concerned, the best answer would be to do both. This helps to explain why Congress has left Washington for its August recess without dealing with rising gas and oil prices.

-- Except for the Alaska Senate race, it was generally a good week for Republicans in our state surveys. McCain and GOP Senate candidates were out front in Mississippi, Nebraska, Texas and Kentucky, although the numbers were closer than Republicans are used to in these traditionally red states. Montana is solidly red, too, and McCain has now come back to tie it up there. The state’s Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, remains comfortably ahead, though in his bid for re-election.

-- The Democrats have moved further ahead of the GOP in newest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. If given the choice, 47% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 34% would choose the Republican candidate.

-- Americans continue to show confidence that the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. The newest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 50% of voters believe the U.S. is winning, while just 21% say the terrorists are ahead.

-- Taxes were front and center this week in the presidential campaign, and 50% of Americans still see tax increases as bad for the economy. An identical percentage favor a tax policy focused on economic growth rather than fairness.

-- The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, on Friday was two points higher than last week and 10 points above the all-time low established on June 10. Nationally, 60% of adults believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession.
-- While overseas to cover Obama’s trip, CBS News’ beleaguered anchor Katie Couric told an Israeli newspaper that sexism is more common and more acceptable in society than racism. Voters do not agree. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 36% believe African-Americans face more discrimination, while only 28% say it’s worse for women.

-- After sinking to its lowest level in June, economic confidence among small business owners rebounded in July, as the number of those who said they are experiencing cash flow issues decreased significantly and general economic confidence began trending upward, according to the Discover(R) Small Business Watch(SM).

-- Sixty-one percent (61%) of adults say they are likely to watch a large portion of the Summer Olympics on television beginning next week, and just over half (53%) also think it is important for the United States to bring home the most medals.

-- During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41%. The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ek_s_key_polls

[Janett_Reno]

Dude, i feel like Afghanistan was right and is worth funding now and was the right thing back then and now. It was alot of bad there and also Pakistan and even now alot of bad hide in Pakistan. I did not think Iraq was right at all but i am proud things are much better now in Iraq and the violence is down.

[Janett_Reno]

Obama leads McCain nationally in AP-Ipsos poll

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080805/...l_race_ap_poll

Solid margins among women, minorities and young voters have powered Barack Obama to a 6 percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential race, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Obama is ahead of his Republican rival 47 percent to 41 percent, The Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed. The survey was taken after the Democratic senator from Illinois had returned from a trip to Middle Eastern and European capitals, and during a week that saw the two camps clash over which had brought race into a campaign in which Obama is striving to become the first African-American president.

McCain, the senator from Arizona, is leading by 10 points among whites and is even with Obama among men, groups with whom Republicans traditionally do well in national elections.

Obama leads by 13 points among women, by 30 points among voters up to age 34, and by 55 points among blacks, Hispanics and other minorities, the poll shows.

Independent Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr both won support from less than 5 percent of the registered voters surveyed. When people were asked who they would support if Nader and Barr were not on the ballot, Obama's lead over McCain was virtually unchanged.

The poll showed a huge Democratic advantage when voters ponder which party they would like to see control Congress next year. Democrats were favored over Republicans 53 percent to 35 percent, underscoring the mountainous disadvantage McCain and other GOP candidates are facing in the Nov. 4 voting.

The poll illustrated other ways damage has been inflicted on the Republican brand name as well.

Just 18 percent think the country is moving in the right direction, and only 31 percent approve of the job President Bush is doing. Both readings are a bit better than the record lows in the AP-Ipsos poll that both measures scored in mid-July.

Congressional approval was at 19 percent, just above last month's all-time AP-Ipsos low. Because Congress is almost always widely disliked as an institution and its members come from both parties, that reading is usually a murky measure of whether the majority party — Democrats this year — is in trouble.

The poll was conducted from July 31-Aug. 4 and involved telephone interviews with 1,002 adults, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Included were interviews with 833 registered voters, for whom the error margin was plus or minus 3.4 points.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now this is from Janett, again i like how Obama has himself positioned. Remember the poll of likely voters, was a small lead for McCain. What is scarry for the gop, likely voters are not very happy now and that is the gop base. What is scarry for the gop, Barr could be in a few states but he shouldn't make much difference but could in a state like GA. Hillary and Obama brought out votes in record numbers that have never been seen in history while gop voters was down and not comming to the polls as much. I agree young people and what as perceived to be "unlikely voters" sometimes does not come out and vote but seeing what i saw in Obama/Hillary it was voting like never before and minorities, women, latino, and young people. So i feel that "unlikely voters" will be huge in this election. I might be wrong and young people and unlikely voters might stay home but i don't think so after the last 8 years we have had. I think they want their voice heard and their vote counted.

A few comments on Obama's vice. I really like Bayh. I have always liked him and this would be good for Hillary supporters, In, Oh, Mich, and Pa. I think the man is very smart. I also like Wesley Clark and yes Wes will reach out into the gop base some because some reps like him. Maybe he also helps on military issues, seniors, and male votes in general all over. I am not so sure on just one state he would bring into the blue but maybe help all over. Maybe Ark he helps some. I also feel he is very smart. I like Joe Biden but not sure how much he helps Obama but maybe his wisdom does. Kaine i see as somewhat risky as yes he may help in VA but he is young. I like Hillary and McCain wouldn't have a shot if Obama picks her but again i doubt she is picked and Bill seems to have had his feelings hurt and hasn't gotten over the whole deal with Hillary losing and i feel it hurts his wifes chance with Bill not really out working hard for Obama. Maybe it changes but probably the damage has been done for Hillary as vp and yes i would love it.

McCain want's Obama to pick first to counter him. Like Hillary is with Obama, Romney is to McCain. The two men don't get along and one is good in economics and is a republican but mormon and the other in John doesn't know what party he is in alot of times and doesn't know about economics. I feel he is McCain's best choice because he is a republican but i am not sure if they can get along and plus the dems will rip McCain on Romney. Romney helps with Mich, IN, OH, and maybe PA and those same states Bayh helps Obama and i feel maybe that is your vp picks. It is going to be backlash with any McCain pick, with the preachers, gop base, one of the young guys that work with dems, but would McCain take a big chance and try to go after more women in getting a woman vp? I doubt this because it would piss off conservative men and some of McCains base.

VP's will be interesting and important this election.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Dude, i feel like Afghanistan was right and is worth funding now and was the right thing back then and now. It was alot of bad there and also Pakistan and even now alot of bad hide in Pakistan. I did not think Iraq was right at all but i am proud things are much better now in Iraq and the violence is down.

How much is theOne going to spend in Afghanistan? How many soldiers will he sacrifice?

Quit evading the question. So are you willing to lay the same marker down on Afghanistan as Iraq? If not, why not? You touted all of these dollars as the reason why we shouldn't be there. Are you saying we should be willing to spend the same amount in Afghanistan.

IMO...you are just like obama and most of the liberals. As soon as it gets tough there, you'll run from that fight as well, you don't have the stomach for it. But right now, you can spout off like you are tough enough. Your history doesn't bolster your argument.

[dude1394]

Uh oh...slip slidding awayyyyy....slip sliding awaaayyy....When your candidate's a lightweight you just can't keep from slip sliding awaaaaayyyyy...

http://www.pajamasmedia.com/instapun...es2/023076.php

OBAMA UNDERPERFORMING KERRY on the electoral maps: "Today's map shows Obama with a projected 275 votes to McCain's 250, with 13 up for grabs. Four years ago — Kerry 317, Bush 202, and 19 tied. Interesting." Indeed. You can certainly see why some Democrats are starting to sound worried. Of course, Kerry was hurt by an overly grandiose performance at the Convention, and by media bias that backfired. Obama should be safe from that, right ? . . .

[dude1394]

As usual...Janett just can't keep from shooting early.

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080618...l_080618153230

For the first time, White House hopeful Barack Obama leads his Republican rival John McCain in three of the biggest battlegrounds of November's election, according to a new poll Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac polls had Obama besting McCain 52-40 percent in Pennsylvania, 48-42 percent in Ohio, and 47-43 in Florida. All three states are crucial building blocks to an election triumph for either candidate in November.

Pennsylvania - TheOne(well in someones mind anyway) +6.4
Ohio - Mac08 +1.5
Florida - Mac08 +2.6
Texas - Just call it easy money Mac08 +10.4..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mccain/?map=10

[dude1394]

It is Zogy...but there is going to be some panty twisting going on in MessiahLand this week.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1541

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

[alexamenos]

I was just noticing the same polls ^^^ ....

With respect to my earlier prognistications and ruminations on the upcoming election, mostly that the ever smiling national socialist lesbian lizard queen and the dems would tromp all over mccain, I'm reminded that one always goes wrong by thinking there are any limits on Democratic Party incompetence.

Surely by now the Democrat Party elders have realized they got caught up in a wave of teenagesque obama passion, that Hillary was the choice to regain power all along, and that the only way they could have allowed the gawd awful Republicans to go on the attack in this election was to nominate someone with "Hussein Obama" in his name. Good gosh, John Kerry or Al Gore could have won this election.

Anyway, interesting times, and this race may actually make for fairly interesting reality tv.

[Flacolaco]

Wow I just saw that.... 5%

12 point swing...I never would have believed it possible. But things are just barely getting started. Obama has the funds and he's going to unleash hell, and the press will cover the DNC like crazy. I'm sure it will swing back the other way. Still, pretty impressive.

What amazes me is that people are still flip flopping back and forth on this. Isn't there enough information out there at this point? Hasn't there been for a while? I don't know anyone who hasn't made up their mind yet...or anyone who hadn't made up their mind months ago.

[sike]

Just for the record, I made up my mind way before flaco.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

What amazes me is that people are still flip flopping back and forth on this. Isn't there enough information out there at this point? Hasn't there been for a while? I don't know anyone who hasn't made up their mind yet...or anyone who hadn't made up their mind months ago.

Flac, people get behind whoever has the coolest slogan and best selling gear. (haven't you learned anything from the NBA?)

[Flacolaco]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

Flac, people get behind whoever has the coolest slogan and best selling gear. (haven't you learned anything from the NBA?)

I haven't changed my "hopey hope, change, change" boxers in a week.

[GuerillaBlack]

According to Gallup:



The Zogby Poll has been the most consistently tilted to McCain throughout the campaign so far. Other polls are still showing Obama with a small lead. But also consider that all the latest polls were done at a time when Obama was on vacation and McCain's strong suit was on display thanks to the Russian invasion of Georgia.

[u2sarajevo]

Cue the

[DirkFTW]

^Low pressure tornado?

[u2sarajevo]

Extremely low pressure.

[wmbwinn]

"With respect to my earlier prognistications and ruminations on the upcoming election, mostly that the ever smiling national socialist lesbian lizard queen and the dems would tromp all over mccain, I'm reminded that one always goes wrong by thinking there are any limits on Democratic Party incompetence."

-Alexamenos (above)

______________________________

That goes down as the best summary of the last week in politics.

Thanks, Alex, for a brief, concise, accurate, and biting summary.

[wmbwinn]

Rasmusens is not showing such a flip yet. But, Rasmusens has been slowly showing this to be roughly a tie for a long time now.


"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 55%"

And, when we're talking about the numbers that really count (the electoral college), it still appears that Obama is up.

Again, from Rasmusens:

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows now Obama leading in states with 210 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 165 votes. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 273, McCain 227. "

[wmbwinn]

here is probably the best single page for the election numbers, showing a state by state count down with the numbers. In the last column, you find a "futures market" that predicts the outcome including not only recent trends but the overall movement over time. It is interesting.

http://rasmussenreports.com/scoreboa...al_status_bars

However, from this page, a few things that do jump out to me as shifts are:
1)Colorado is finally moving towards Republican ground by several percentage points
2)Ohio is equally tilted Republican
3)New Hampshire and Virginia are too close to call. If McCain can take either of these, that will be a huge issue.
4)North Dakota is not all that big as to electoral votes. I have never, ever seen anything other than N. Dakota going Republican for the Prez election each cycle. But, N. Dakota is showing to be a dead heat and that hasn't changed over time...Montana is also split even. That is also strange. Anyone know why Montana and N. Dakota are not "easy Republican states" like in the past? Weird, really.
5)McCain's easy immigrations positions of the past don't seem to be helping him in New Mexico...
6)Nevada is listed as a toss up. Latest polls there may show McCain opening a lead there...
7)Florida remains tight but has been predictably Republican in each poll by 2-3 percentage points.

Anyway, if McCain can take Ohio, Florida, and Nevada and pick up either New Hampshire or Virginia, then...

Obama might go down as the most stupendous collapse and defeat in our lifetime...

[wmbwinn]

Thursday, August 14, 2008 Email to a Friend
The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.

While McCain’s advantage is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has been ahead in Colorado in seven monthly polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year. It’s also the first time that McCain has reached the 47% level of support. Only once before this month had Obama’s support fallen below 46%. (Demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members.)

A month ago, Obama led by seven points overall but by just three points when leaners were included. Two months ago, the race was a toss-up.

The new findings are consistent with a nationwide trend showing statewide results becoming more consistent with recent electoral patterns. George W. Bush won Colorado by five points in Election 2004 and John McCain is running about four or five points behind Bush’s 2004 numbers overall in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As a result, you’d expect Colorado to be a toss-up and that’s what the current numbers suggest.

If either candidate improves their position in the national polling, it is likely that the trend will carry to Colorado as well.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Email to a Friend
Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain led 46% to 40%.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 48% to 43%. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that 51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion, up six percent from a month ago.

Overall, 47% of Buckeye State voters offer a positive opinion of Obama. That’s fifteen points below the 62% with a favorable opinion of McCain.

Nationally, the candidates are very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Ohio, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while 77% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama. The two men split the unaffiliated voters, but McCain wins more crossover vote: 15% of Democrats say they’ll vote for the Republican while just 7% of GOP faithful plan to vote for his opponent.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 54.0% chance of carrying Ohio this November. At the time this poll was released, Ohio was rated as a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Ohio voters say it’s Very Likely their state will be the decisive state in the battle for the White House once again. Another 47% say it’s Somewhat Likely. Twelve percent (12%) say this unique role in the Electoral College improves the quality of life in the Buckeye State. Twenty-two percent (22%) say it detracts from the quality of life while 59% say it has no impact.

Just 11% say it’s more important for the state's Democratic governor Ted Strickland to help Obama win Ohio, but 84% believe it’s more important that for him to work to improve Ohio’s economy. Approval ratings for Strickland have slipped in the last couple of months-42% good or excellent and just 16% poor. Two months ago, 47% rated Strickland’s performance as good or excellent. Last month, that figure was 44%.

Twenty percent (20%) of Ohio voters say they’ll vote early while 71% say they’ll go to the polls on Election Day.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of Ohio voters favor drilling for oil in Ohio state parks while 39% are opposed and 13% are not sure.

Nearly half of Ohio voters (48%) say President Bush is doing a poor job, while 37% give him good or excellent marks. Both figures are up a bit over the past month.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Wednesday, August 20, 2008 Email to a Friend
The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.

The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.

While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.

Nationally, the race remains close in the Daily Presidential Tracking poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a 61.0% chance of winning New Hampshire's four Electoral College votes this year. It is widely considered a swing state, primarily because it is one of the few states to switch sides between Election 2000 and Election 2004. New Hampshire has voted for the Democrat in three out of the last four presidential elections, though John Kerry won by just a single point in 2004. The state is classified as “Leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Obama is viewed favorably by 55%, while McCain is viewed favorably by 57%. The Democrat is viewed very favorably by 28% and very unfavorably by 29%. Meanwhile, 23% have a very favorable opinion of McCain, while 16% have a very unfavorable view of the GOP candidate.

The issue of energy has been at the front of many voters’ minds this election season. In New Hampshire, 60% of voters think finding new energy sources is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume. Thirty-four percent (34%) take the opposite view. While 87% of voters believe finding new sources is an urgent national need, 75% also feel that way about reducing energy consumption.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters in New Hampshire think media bias is a bigger problem than large campaign contributions in politics today. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think campaign contributions are the bigger problem. Again, those figures also reflect the views of voters nationwide. The majority of voters (64%) say most politicians will break the rules in order to help people who contribute money to their campaigns. While 44% of voters say McCain is too influenced by contributors and lobbyists, 36% believe that of Obama.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 26% of New Hampshire voters, while 52% give him poor reviews.

In New Hampshire’s race for the Senate, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen has expanded her lead over incumbent John Sununu.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Wednesday, August 13, 2008 Email to a Friend
It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.

With or without leaners, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans while 87% of Democrats in Virginia say they’ll vote for Obama.

These results are essentially unchanged from a month ago. This is the third straight month to find the candidates just a single point apart and that may be one reason former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is well ahead in his race for the Senate, has been tapped to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention later this month.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.

McCain does have one significant edge over Obama in that he is viewed far more favorably than his Democratic opponent. McCain earns favorable reviews from 61% of Virginia voters, Obama from just 51%.

Perhaps more ominous for Obama is the fact that 47% of Virginia voters have an unfavorable opinion of him, including 31% with a Very Unfavorable view.

For McCain, just 36% have an unfavorable opinion including 16% with a Very Unfavorable assessment.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a 49.0% chance of carrying the state again this fall. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004. But at the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as a “Toss Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) say that Congress should have stayed in session to finish an energy plan. Nationally, 61% want Members of Congress to return and vote on offshore oil drilling immediately.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Virginia voters favor offshore oil drilling, similar to the national average. Sixty-three percent (63%) say it’s more important to find new sources of energy while just 29% place a higher priority on reducing the amount of energy we consume. Those figures too are similar to the nation at large. Overall, voters see major differences between Obama and McCain on this issue.

Former Governor Mark Warner, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, maintains a sizable lead over his Republican opponent, Jim Gilmore. The Virginia Senate seat now held by Republican John Warner is the best chance at a pick-up Democrats have nationwide and also will help Obama in the state with the popular ex-governor free to campaign for his party’s candidate.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

The president’s ratings are little changed from last month, with 36% saying he is doing a good or an excellent job and 46% viewing his performance as poor.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Wednesday, August 13, 2008 Email to a Friend
The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.

This is the third straight month to find Obama’s support at the 42% level. Two months ago, McCain was at 45%, but his support slipped to 40% in July.

When “leaners” are included in the current Nevada totals, McCain is on top 48% to 45%.

Crosstabs with more detailed results and demographic breakdowns are available for Premium Members.
Nevada is one of three southwestern states targeted by the Obama campaign. Like New Mexico and Colorado, it went narrowly for President Bush four years ago.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Nevada, down two points from a month ago.

Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters, down five points from July.

As always in this election season, opinions about Obama are more firmly established. He is viewed Very Favorably by 30% and Very Unfavorably by 35%. For McCain, the numbers are 20% Very Favorable and 21% Very Unfavorable.

McCain is now supported by 85% of Republicans, up nine percentage points from a month ago. Obama currently attracts 79% support from Democrats, unchanged over the past month. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

Consistent with the views of voters across the nation, 55% of Nevada voters believe most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election. Just 9% believe they are trying to help McCain while 24% say most reporters try to offer unbiased coverage. A recent survey found that most voters believe media bias is a bigger problem than big campaign donors.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama by a statistically insignificant 43% to 42% margin. A month ago, McCain led by three points in the three-poll average.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a 48.0% chance of winning Nevada this November. Nevada has cast its five Electoral College votes for the winning candidate in seven straight presidential elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote. As the poll is released, Nevada is considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Mirroring the national mood, Nevada voters overwhelmingly say it’s more important to find new sources of energy than to reduce the amount of energy that Americans consume. Just 23% say it’s more important to reduce consumption.

Most Nevada voters believe that the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror. Just 22% believe the terrorists are winning. Nationally, confidence in the War on Terror is at the highest levels in the past four years.

Voters see very stark differences between Obama and McCain on Iraq and energy issues.
While most Nevada voters cast a ballot for George W. Bush four years ago, most (52%) now think the president is doing a poor job. Just 35% say he is doing a good or an excellent job.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Email to a Friend
John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

While Obama remains close in the polls, he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. Just 49% of all voters give the Democrat a favorable assessment. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 36%.

Last month, Obama held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on McCain following a month where Obama spent a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing. That was the first time Obama had held an advantage of any kind over McCain in the Sunshine State. For the previous six months the Republican had been ahead anywhere from seven to 16 percentage points.

McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

As he does nationally, Obama leads McCain among women voters. In Florida, he has a 52% to 41% advantage, roughly comparable to last month. McCain has an even larger spread among men, 51% to 33%. That represents a sizable gain since July.

Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John W. Kerry 52% to 47% in the Sunshine State. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.

McCain’s ability to stay competitive in the race with the younger and more charismatic Obama is credited in large part to his championing of offshore oil drilling as one way to offset high gas and oil prices. The majority of voters in Florida, a state which is directly impacted by his position, favor lifting the congressional ban on such drilling. So do most voters nationwide.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a 68.0% chance of winning Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes in November. At the time this poll was released, Florida was rated as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

A plurality of Florida voters (42%) rank economic issues as the most important in the current election cycle, down from 49% in July. For 26%, national security issues are the most important, an increase of seven percentage points in a month.

For the second month in a row, 57% favor drilling for oil off the coast of Florida while 29% are opposed. The latter number is down from 32% in July. Sixty percent (60%) say it is at least somewhat likely that Congress will approve offshore drilling in the next year, but 30% believe that is not likely to happen.

As for the price at the pump, 69% say gas is not likely to drop below $3 a gallon this year, but the identical number (69%) say it isn’t going above $5 a gallon either by the end of December.

Most Florida voters (73%) say television is their primary source for information on hurricanes and other storms, followed by 22% who rely on the Internet and 4% who say radio. Nearly half (48%) say emergency services are now better prepared for these storms, too, while only two percent think they are less prepared. Forty-five percent (45%) say the preparation is about the same as always.

Fifty-two percent (52%) say the state’s schools are getting worse, with only 13% saying they are improving and 27% saying there has been no change.

Still, half of the state’s voters (50%) rate Republican Governor Charlie Crist’s job performance as good or excellent, while only 10% give him poor marks. Seventy-nine percent (79%) expect the governor’s recent marriage to make no difference in his governing.

For the second month running, President Bush’s job performance gets good or excellent marks from 35% and is rated poor by 48%. Nationally, he continues to earn very low performance ratings.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[wmbwinn]

Thursday, July 31, 2008 Email to a Friend
The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana's three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.

A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.

Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.
Obama is preferred by 86% of Democrats and McCain by 80% of Republicans. The two men are essentially even among unaffiliated voters. One interesting note in the data is that five percent of Republicans say they’d prefer some other candidate while only one percent of Democrats feel that way. Among unaffiliated voters, five percent prefer a third option over either McCain or Obama.

Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana's very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a 72.0% chance of winning Montana this November. At the time this poll was released, Montana is listed as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. Nationally, Obama has been enjoying a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for several weeks.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Montana voters say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror, a figure that is similar to the national average. Like voters throughout the country, Montana voters tend to see Afghanistan as a bigger threat going forward than Iraq.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 34% hold the opposite view.

Forty-four percent (44%) believe that the United States still has the best economy in the world, while 42% disagree.

Despite winning 59% of the vote in Montana less than four years ago, George W. Bush now earns good or excellent ratings from only 38% of the state’s voters. Forty-eight percent (48%) say he is doing a poor job. Those figures have changed little over the past month.

_______________________________________

Perhaps Montana is a close race primarily because of a popular Dem Governor.

[wmbwinn]

Thursday, July 10, 2008 Email to a Friend
North Dakota is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried the state by twenty-seven points in Election 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916.

Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. When leaners are included, McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage, 47% to 46%. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Obama with a five-point advantage in neighboring Montana. That state, too, has a long history of voting Republican at the Presidential level but both states also have two Democratic U.S. Senators. McCain is returning the favor by running much stronger than recent Republicans in New Jersey.

In North Dakota, McCain leads by double digits among men but trails by nine among women. McCain earns the vote from 87% of Republicans while Obama attracts 79% of Democrats and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama leads by twenty points among those who consider economic issues most important while McCain has a thirty-seven point lead among those who see national security as the highest priority. Thirty-nine percent (39%) view the economy as most important while 24% say the same about national security.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 74.9% chance of winning in North Dakota this November. With release of this poll, North Dakota shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Larry Sabato also sees North Dakota leaning Republican in his most recent assessment of the race.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of North Dakota voters say McCain is too old to be President while 45% say Obama is too inexperienced. These perceptions are tracked regularly on a national basis and updated continuously along with other key stats at Obama-McCain By the Numbers. Obama has a very modest lead over McCain nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of North Dakota voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the war. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and say winning the war is more important.

Sixty-five percent (65%) favor offshore oil drilling, a figure close to the national average.

Even though George W. Bush won 63% of the vote in North Dakota four years ago, just 37% of the state’s voters now say he is doing a good or an excellent job.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ntial_election

[jefelump]

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Adding to McCain’s challenge in this historically red state is the fact that Montana's very popular Democratic Governor is cruising to victory in his re-election bid.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Montana voters say that most reporters are trying to help Obama win in November. Just nine percent think they’re trying to help McCain. These perceptions are shared by voters throughout the nation.

_______________________________________

Perhaps Montana is a close race primarily because of a popular Dem Governor.

Montana sounds a lot like Massachussetts, where a historically blue state elected Mitt Romney, a Republican, as governor twice, while still electing Ted Kennedy and John Kerry as Senators.

[wmbwinn]

By my math, if McCain takes Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota, Montana, Ohio, and the states he is expected to win (including Florida where he leads predictably), then he has 231 electoral college votes right now.

If I give Obama the states he is expected to win and give him New Hampshire, then he has 241 electoral college votes.

Now, I did not put Virginia is either column. Virginia is worth 13 electoral votes.

I only counted the 41 states with recent Rasmusen polls in place. That is why the total is not adding up right (for those of you who noticed that).

http://rasmussenreports.com/scoreboa...al_status_bars

That link shows the 41 states with recent rasmusen polls...

[wmbwinn]

The nine states that don't have recent Rasmusen polls are:
Idaho, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Indiana, Nebraska, Delaware, Hawaii, Vermont, and Maryland; (and the District of Columbia gets 3 electoral votes).

Based on this link,

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_c...college_update

That would add 19 electoral college votes to McCain and 30 to Obama.

Anyway, I never thought that it would be this close.

Obama was supposed to win this in a Reagan-esque landslide...

He might be losing it like the Patriots...

The real electoral college vote might be currently as close as 263 for McCain and 271 for Obama...

Again, those figures are speculative and assume that the above noted states play out like Rasmusen has them currently slated in their latests polls AND it puts Virginia in McCain's column. Several of the states are too close to call. New Hampshire, Virginia, N. Dakota, and Montana are all too close to call at all. The 271-263 guess above assumes that McCain takes three of those 4 states...

Wonder if a Romney VP pick and a NRA fight could flip Michigan to McCain...

[dude1394]

So if Mac picks Pawlenty for VP, does that give him Minnesota? Barack Hussein Obama is only up 2. Funny...

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dude1394

So if Mac picks Pawlenty for VP, does that give him Minnesota? Barack Hussein Obama is only up 2. Funny...

Did Bentsen give Dukakis Texas in '88?

As for your parting shot, I'm afraid I do not understand. What is "funny" about the recent polls in MN?

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Did Bentsen give Dukakis Texas in '88?

As for your parting shot, I'm afraid I do not understand. What is "funny" about the recent polls in MN?

Just funny that the "landslide barry" is only 2 up now when he was about oh...17 or so.

I don't really think Dukakis was within single digits in texas. I don't really see the comparison working. If dukakis was within 2, he might very well have. He turned out to be the best candidate in that election.

[chumdawg]

The "funny" thing about laughing smugly at polls in mid-August, before the conventions even, is that the last laugh may well be on you.

Dukakis was a better candidate than Bush?? Come again?

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

The "funny" thing about laughing smugly at polls in mid-August, before the conventions even, is that the last laugh may well be on you.

Dukakis was a better candidate than Bush?? Come again?

I meant Bentson was a better candidate than bush, dukakis or quale.

Oh polls are polls... I get a chuckle out of them when they are really early, but it's getting pretty close to convention time and they are going to start mattering in oh...about 10 days or so I expect.

Since Obama and the democrats were so unstoppable that they were going to take texas (someone told me that I think....) it's quite hilarious to see the hand-wringing. Oh woe is me, what's happening we are SUPPOSED TO WIN!!!

[Flacolaco]

Much like you can "only play the games on your schedule" you can only comment on the polls thus far.

And so, it's still funny that the human bull-horn Barry Hussein has lost huge leads to a 97 year old corpse.