Nerlens Noel

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Skywalker

I think he means from Noel's point of view tbh

I was responding to Saclare who was talking about what the money could be used for, which is why I used a quote response

[Skywalker]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I was responding to Saclare who was talking about what the money could be used for, which is why I used a quote response

Pretty sure Saclare was speaking from Noel's point of view and your reply was from the team's point of view. Whatever though

[EricaLubarsky]

Saclare can clarify, but that isn't an interesting discussion. Some players max out their earnings. Some accept what they think is fair. Obviously his agent will be pushing for more, because they work on percentage.

Still, I don't think it matters much as I said in my previous comment. The 4-5 mill a year we may undercut the max doesn't do as much people think. The years of Cuban dreaming of bringing in superstars with max contracts is hopefully over. That 4 million a year won't do much. I'm not sure Noel is worth max, but I also don't think money is that important for a team that is just trying to find pieces that fit together to find some traction.

So yeah, be critical of my posting, but the point remains the same-- Noel's desire to get max or not doesn't change much. Talking about what Noel wants is pointless. More is better. Agent is pushing more. None of us know how hard he'll push for his money and what he'll accept.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Saclare can clarify, but that isn't an interesting discussion. Some players max out their earnings. Some accept what they think is fair. Obviously his agent will be pushing for more, because they work on percentage.

Still, I don't think it matters much as I said in my previous comment. The 4-5 mill a year we may undercut the max doesn't do as much people think. The years of Cuban dreaming of bringing in superstars with max contracts is hopefully over. That 4 million a year won't do much. I'm not sure Noel is worth max, but I also don't think money is that important for a team that is just trying to find pieces that fit together to find some traction.

So yeah, be critical of my posting, but the point remains the same-- Noel's desire to get max or not doesn't change much. Talking about what Noel wants is pointless. More is better. Agent is pushing more. None of us know how hard he'll push for his money and what he'll accept.

From Noel's point of view. But I also agree that it is pointless what he wants, it will come down to what he gets, which is most likely a max from some other team and we match. It's why I gave a half-thoughtful response on it.

However, I do tend to align with some other views here, in that what if he doesn't get a max offer? That is where it gets interesting from a value perspective and very tricky for either party. You want the guy happy, but at the best price you can get him.

[SMC0007]

I thought it was gonna go like this: Other teams who are legitimately interested and can afford it, will decide how much we pay for him, because as long as we match the highest bid, we get him. unless he wasnt to go sell insurance. ...and no offense to those who do that profession.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I thought it was gonna go like this: Other teams who are legitimately interested and can afford it, will decide how much we pay for him, because as long as we match the highest bid, we get him. unless he wasnt to go sell insurance. ...and no offense to those who do that profession.

That's precisely how it is and I messed up. He's QO/RFA, not an UFA and we'd be stupid not to offer him a QO. If no team offers him a contract, he gets the QO of 5.8mill. If he gets offered 12mill a year, we match and pay 12. If a team offers max, then we pay max.

It's really out of our hands and I feel like Rick's and Mark's comments have all pointed to matching whatever is offered.

Keeping Noel is in our hands, but what he gets paid is up to other teams. No one offers? We keep him for his QO of 5.8mill, but he's about the only good center in this year's FA class and there is a LOT of dumb money flowing around. Lots of teams are going to below the salary floor and need to spend money, regardless of how dumb it is to offer an oft-injured guy who only averaged 20mpg a fat contract. I think it's highly likely he'll get at least one offer.

[sefant77]

I think someone is going to offer him 18m+ just because the above average FA class is so damn thin, considering the usual ones (Curry, Durant, Griffin, Paul etc) are all staying with their teams.

http://hoopshype.com/2017/01/25/nba-...e-top-players/

Hayward, Lowry also comitting early to re-sign and Noel is a ~Top-6 FA

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

I think someone is going to offer him 18m+ just because the above average FA class is so damn thin, considering the usual ones (Curry, Durant, Griffin, Paul etc) are all staying with their teams.

http://hoopshype.com/2017/01/25/nba-...e-top-players/

Hayward, Lowry also comitting early to re-sign and Noel is a ~Top-6 FA

Easily a top-2 center and top-10 FA and there is a LOT of dumb money going around. Brooklyn could be the dumbest FO in the league and they're going to have to blow 30-40 million on players or else pay tax for being under the floor.

[SMC0007]

It will be a lot easier on all of us around here if we just go ahead and accept that not only is Noel going to get the max that is possible for him, but he also desrves it. It should be a 2 step process no?>
1. Send him QO
2. Match the highest bid, Lock him down and move on.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

It will be a lot easier on all of us around here if we just go ahead and accept that not only is Noel going to get the max that is possible for him, but he also desrves it. It should be a 2 step process no?>
1. Send him QO
2. Match the highest bid, Lock him down and move on.

What makes you think he deserves he max? He's never played a full season, never averaged double digit rebounds, and isn't an offensive star. Not saying he won't get the max, but not sure he deserves it. You don't deserve anything based on potential.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

What makes you think he deserves he max? He's never played a full season, never averaged double digit rebounds, and isn't an offensive star. Not saying he won't get the max, but not sure he deserves it. You don't deserve anything based on potential.

2014-2015
Games played - 75
Games missed due to injury - 7
MPG - 31mpg
PP36 - 12
RP36 - 10
SP36 - 2.1
BP36 - 2.2

2015-2016
Games played - 62
Games missed due to injury - 20
MPG - 29mpg
PP36 - 14
RP36 - 10
SP36 - 2.2
BP36 - 1.8

2016-2017
Games played - 75
Games missed due to injury - 10+
MPG - 21mpg
PP36 - 15
RP36 - 10
SP36 - 2.2
BP36 - 1.8

Dude is decent, but not great at rebounding. What's more significant is that he really hasn't progressed his efficiency and has missed games every single season he's played.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by BPo001

What makes you think he deserves he max? He's never played a full season, never averaged double digit rebounds, and isn't an offensive star. Not saying he won't get the max, but not sure he deserves it. You don't deserve anything based on potential.

Because he is young and pretty much the closest thing to Tyson Chandler in the league with the potential and talent to reach Chandlers level or become just slightly worse. And because we have the rights.

Okay, we could also sign again garbage players on big one year contracts...

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Because he is young and pretty much the closest thing to Tyson Chandler in the league with the potential and talent to reach Chandlers level or become just slightly worse. And because we have the rights.

Okay, we could also sign again garbage players on big one year contracts...

Sorta this... and I agree with the Chandler resemblance, his hands may even be quicker at swiping the ball down low and interruting passing lanes than Tyson.

It's not what we think he is worth... it's what other teams think he is worth.

Did Mike Conley deserve what he got? Does Paul Milsap deserve $200M? It's nature of the business right now.

I will give you that the numbers don't exactly match up to "deserve it", but there is more to it. You can See how valuable he is and will be to us (and every other team) if he remains healthy and more so if he has a good coach.

Are you willing to let him walk if it's matching a QO for his max? I sure as hell am not. We don't control the injuries...but the one time we get a really good athletic big that has tons of potential and we can control whether he is in Dallas or not, we gotta keep him.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Okay, we could also sign again garbage players on big one year contracts...

How does that relate to the idea that Noel shouldn't be worth the max?

No one on this board and no one in the FO is saying that we're going to let him get away. The argument is that he shouldn't be worth max money until he shows he's even close to a max player.

[Bryan_Wilson]

IMO he's worth his max in today's NBA. My perception of him changed a little after watching him in a mavs uniform. He doesn't pull down enough boards still but I think outside of an elite star player every team needs a Nerlens Noel. His ability to switch out on the perimeter in a pnr heavy league is a necessity. I honestly feel like that's not stressed enough just how much that is needed in today's nba. Watching Okc with all their rebounding bigs switch them onto guards and then seeing them get torched is painful. Combine that with all his other skills that are mentioned, and then look at the guys already being paid around his max money and then finally look at the awful free agency market, especially for bigs. Even outside of the crap ass market I think he's worth the max in today's game with what he brings that may not show up in the traditional box score.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

IMO he's worth his max in today's NBA. My perception of him changed a little after watching him in a mavs uniform. He doesn't pull down enough boards still but I think outside of an elite star player every team needs a Nerlens Noel. His ability to switch out on the perimeter in a pnr heavy league is a necessity. I honestly feel like that's not stressed enough just how much that is needed in today's nba. Watching Okc with all their rebounding bigs switch them onto guards and then seeing them get torched is painful. Combine that with all his other skills that are mentioned, and then look at the guys already being paid around his max money and then finally look at the awful free agency market, especially for bigs. Even outside of the crap ass market I think he's worth the max in today's game with what he brings that may not show up in the traditional box score.

It's really hard to say.

One one hand, he's incredibly active and disruptive. He doesn't do anything particularly amazingly, but he creates chaos. He's frenetic and everywhere for rebounds, blocks, and steals. Disruption is often times more important than pure man-defense. Stevenson was as important for his man D as he was for his ability to create chaos and drive teams to make mistakes.

On the other hand, he's never played a full season. He's often injured and rarely plays large minutes. His entire game is based on his athleticism and his fundamentals are extremely raw. He can be like Westbrook at times-- playing his hardest, but not always smart and often without self-control. His rebounding rate isn't amazing-- 34th in the league among centers in rebounding rate. He's 28th among centers in EWA (estimated wins added). His numbers basically don't reflect that he's even a starting-caliber player despite the strong pedigree of being a 6th overall pick. I think the numbers are a bit deceiving-- I think he's more of a top 20 than a top 30-40 center in the league, but still, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he'd be a max player. Max money used to only go to the Garnetts, Dirks, and Nashs of the world.

However,the CBA has messed up everything. Free agents don't want to go to bad teams, but teams still have to spend money at an incredible rate. The spending floor is too high so bad teams end up inflating the money given out which means there are a lot of guys earning way more than the bell curve that you'd expect. Teams like Brooklyn not only have money to spend, they need to spend it, so they throw around 9-10 mill, even max contracts like candy.

I fully expect Noel to get 10mill-Max and he absolutely will get matched by us-- probably for good reason--, but I think Noel has more than a few questions as to if he's worth that kind of cash. It's year four and he hasn't continued to progress or even develop fundamentals yet. That luster is starting to wear off and he has to prove he can continue to evolve his game and be more than a guy who plays hard and swings his arms everywhere. That athleticism will fade and he hasn't shown that he can be a part of an organized defensive/offensive scheme. He hasn't been well coached at all in Philly, but those questions linger.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

On the other hand, he's never played a full season. He's often injured and rarely plays large minutes. His entire game is based on his athleticism and his fundamentals are extremely raw. He can be like Westbrook at times-- playing his hardest, but not always smart and often without self-control. His rebounding rate isn't amazing-- 34th in the league among centers in rebounding rate. He's 28th among centers in EWA (estimated wins added). His numbers basically don't reflect that he's even a starting-caliber player despite the strong pedigree of being a 6th overall pick. I think the numbers are a bit deceiving-- I think he's more of a top 20 than a top 30-40 center in the league, but still, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense that he'd be a max player. Max money used to only go to the Garnetts, Dirks, and Nashs of the world.

However,the CBA has messed up everything. Free agents don't want to go to bad teams, but teams still have to spend money at an incredible rate. The spending floor is too high so bad teams end up inflating the money given out which means there are a lot of guys earning way more than the bell curve that you'd expect. Teams like Brooklyn not only have money to spend, they need to spend it, so they throw around 9-10 mill, even max contracts like candy.

I fully expect Noel to get 10mill-Max and he absolutely will get matched by us-- probably for good reason--, but I think Noel has more than a few questions as to if he's worth that kind of cash. It's year four and he hasn't continued to progress or even develop fundamentals yet. That luster is starting to wear off and he has to prove he can continue to evolve his game and be more than a guy who plays hard and swings his arms everywhere. That athleticism will fade and he hasn't shown that he can be a part of an organized defensive/offensive scheme. He hasn't been well coached at all in Philly, but those questions linger.

I think this is a really good point. Players that aren't superstars are getting max contacts. I fully expect Noel to get the max or near the max, but do I think he deserves it? Numbers don't show me he does. I'm not going to let him walk away though and I know the organization isn't either. Like Erica said though he hasn't shown much improvement and he also needs to prove he can stay healthy.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Yeah but I think our perception of "max player" has to change. It obviously has changed in terms of the CBA. Just in terms of recent mavs, Parsons and Wes were both "max players" by more than one organization. So are we talking about does he deserve the max or is he worth the max? Is he worth it? The market says he more than likely is, or at least close enough that him getting it isn't shocking. Does he deserve it? Prolly to EL's point there should only be a handful or more players who "deserve" it. But now the CBA is going to have a super max option so that will take care of that I suppose. So imo the term "max player" isn't what it used to be.

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

How does that relate to the idea that Noel shouldn't be worth the max?

No one on this board and no one in the FO is saying that we're going to let him get away. The argument is that he shouldn't be worth max money until he shows he's even close to a max player.

It's simple. A player is worth what a team is willing to pay. The performance vs cost analysis would be an interesting piece to dig into in today's CBA. The reality is this has very little to do with today's NBA. Small to mid market teams have very little bargaining power. We thought we had taken a step after we won a championship. Multiple failures in FA the following years proved otherwise. We will be overspending on all talent for the foreseeable future. Just like we did with Mathews and Barnes.

[Underdog]

Yeah, but Noel is a RESTRICTED free agent -- any team that bids on him just to drive up the price for Dallas is going to be stuck for a week while all the other free agents disappear... Considering that Cuban has already said we'll match any deal, I could see most teams passing on him and giving us a little wiggle room with his contract (of course, it only takes one team).

[Murphy3]

And any savings we can getand with the cap not going up as much as expected, any savings we can get with Noel could be huge. And the lower cap could be what keeps most teams away.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Yeah, but Noel is a RESTRICTED free agent -- any team that bids on him just to drive up the price for Dallas is going to be stuck for a week while all the other free agents disappear... Considering that Cuban has already said we'll match any deal, I could see most teams passing on him and giving us a little wiggle room with his contract (of course, it only takes one team).

And the FO should milk every minute of that week to match. Unless they are vying for future relationships with other teams and their management, no reason not to. We would have a cap hold for Noel anyway, correct?

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

And any savings we can getand with the cap not going up as much as expected, any savings we can get with Noel could be huge. And the lower cap could be what keeps most teams away.

Your second point had me thinking the most yesterday. But in the end, I think that only eliminates a few teams. There are going to be plenty of teams with money to spend, just so many other factors, such as tying that space up with the Mavs FO already saying they will match anything.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by saclare

Your second point had me thinking the most yesterday. But in the end, I think that only eliminates a few teams. There are going to be plenty of teams with money to spend, just so many other factors, such as tying that space up with the Mavs FO already saying they will match anything.

1/3 of the league won't be able to offer max contracts this summer with the cap at $101m instead of $108m.

[sefant77]

And still it just need one team to offer him max.

[saclare]

You're both right! 2/3 of the league able to and all it takes is one.

(I know there are other reasons why a team would/wouldn't)

[spreedom]

I think Nerlens has All-Defense potential, and as was mentioned above, modern big man defense is as much, if not more, about being able to switch pick-and-rolls and avoid getting roasted on the perimeter as it is about traditional camping-in-the-paint and swatting shots. I think we can build a good, if not elite defense around Nerlens and his ability to do just about everything in defense.

Carlisle talked about Nerlens needing to get stronger, and about how our off-season workout plans focus greatly on building muscle. I think this will help him from being pushed around inside like he generally is right now. Not sure he'll ever be a dominating, top 10 rebounder, but I don't see why he can't be the starting center on a team that is top 10 in rebounding.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I think Nerlens has All-Defense potential, and as was mentioned above, modern big man defense is as much, if not more, about being able to switch pick-and-rolls and avoid getting roasted on the perimeter as it is about traditional camping-in-the-paint and swatting shots. I think we can build a good, if not elite defense around Nerlens and his ability to do just about everything in defense.

Carlisle talked about Nerlens needing to get stronger, and about how our off-season workout plans focus greatly on building muscle. I think this will help him from being pushed around inside like he generally is right now. Not sure he'll ever be a dominating, top 10 rebounder, but I don't see why he can't be the starting center on a team that is top 10 in rebounding.

My only worry is to over burden him for the summer trying to build muscle. Yes he needs to get bigger, but Id say 8 pounds at most, and then work everything else. I think its possible to have an elite defense with Barnes/Noel. Guards are an issue sans Yogi. But I am excited about our defense and the possibility of the PG coming in being feisty too.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I think Nerlens has All-Defense potential, and as was mentioned above, modern big man defense is as much, if not more, about being able to switch pick-and-rolls and avoid getting roasted on the perimeter as it is about traditional camping-in-the-paint and swatting shots. I think we can build a good, if not elite defense around Nerlens and his ability to do just about everything in defense.

Carlisle talked about Nerlens needing to get stronger, and about how our off-season workout plans focus greatly on building muscle. I think this will help him from being pushed around inside like he generally is right now. Not sure he'll ever be a dominating, top 10 rebounder, but I don't see why he can't be the starting center on a team that is top 10 in rebounding.

Generally agree, however, sometimes more muscle and size isn't always a great thing. As is, he is a very athletic and mobile center which brings along a number of positive attributes. Flip side, he does get pushed around and bullied against some of the bigger/slower centers in regards to post defense and rebounding. So I'm sure they will fine that fine line and tread carefully to maximize his potential production. I have high hopes for Noel in the system.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Yeah, but Noel is a RESTRICTED free agent -- any team that bids on him just to drive up the price for Dallas is going to be stuck for a week while all the other free agents disappear... Considering that Cuban has already said we'll match any deal, I could see most teams passing on him and giving us a little wiggle room with his contract (of course, it only takes one team).

Great point!!!

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by saclare

Generally agree, however, sometimes more muscle and size isn't always a great thing. As is, he is a very athletic and mobile center which brings along a number of positive attributes. Flip side, he does get pushed around and bullied against some of the bigger/slower centers in regards to post defense and rebounding. So I'm sure they will fine that fine line and tread carefully to maximize his potential production. I have high hopes for Noel in the system.

Noel should fill out with age. However there will be a few years we will most likely suffer on the boards with Barnes/Noel at the 4/5.
Rick will have a challenge trying to optimize Barnes at the 4 without compromising too much in the front court.
A lot of that will depend on Barnes' development as well as Noel's though.

Dirk had to learn to do some of the dirty work so Barnes' will need to do some of the same for the good of the team and take his game to even a higher level.

I'm still very curious how Rick will handle our starting front court next season.

[EricaLubarsky]

Noel needs to work with Rick and a big man coach.

Dude has so much potential. He's active and disruptive, but his fundamentals are an absolute wreck. Dude hasn't been coached to play well at his position or to play within a defense and offense and it's going to be just as crucial as bulking up and staying healthy. I'm really hoping we're the team to finally teach Noel the other half of the game.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Noel needs to work with Rick and a big man coach.

Is Olajuwon still doing his Big Man Camp? I remember Diop's game took a noticeable step up after attending... I could see a guy like Noel benefitting greatly from working with a living legend like The Dream.

[MavzMan]

I wouldn't worry too much about Noel adding muscle or bulking up. He's 23 and should start filling out soon. Let it come naturally so that he doesn't put too much pressure on his body.

And rebounding is very much a learned skill and about dedication of going after the ball. You hear that from all the top rebounders. He needs to "see" where the ball is going and then just go for it. I have confidence that this off-season will be a big improvement for him. Same goes for Yogi and even HB as much as he's surprised us this year.

I'm crazy excited about next season.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

I wouldn't worry too much about Noel adding muscle or bulking up. He's 23 and should start filling out soon. Let it come naturally so that he doesn't put too much pressure on his body.

And rebounding is very much a learned skill and about dedication of going after the ball. You hear that from all the top rebounders. He needs to "see" where the ball is going and then just go for it. I have confidence that this off-season will be a big improvement for him. Same goes for Yogi and even HB as much as he's surprised us this year.

I'm crazy excited about next season.

I'm with you on this man. Parsons came in too bulky and had knee issues. Not necessarily a correlation but its possible. Losing flexibilty, carrying more weight. Noel does need to get stronger but I think this team needs another big body. Worry about wear and tear on Barnes, Noel, Dirk to a lesser extent. Really hope we can add depth up front and keep Dirk and Noel 20-28mins per with occasional back to back off for both. Barnes btwn 30-35. Wes down below 30 with more rest. Carlisle can do much better in this regard. So what if Barnes "wants to play" when worn down. It doesn't make him more of a warrior- it's just dumb what with all we know about sports science and injury these days. It's about protecting your investments and not the moral victory of meaningless games.

[BPo001]

If we are paying Noel max money he better play more than 20 min per game.

[MavzMan]

No reason Noel doesn't get the same amount of minutes as Barnes next year which should be in the 35-38 category. He's got the full off-season to prepare his body, mind, and game.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

No reason Noel doesn't get the same amount of minutes as Barnes next year which should be in the 35-38 category. He's got the full off-season to prepare his body, mind, and game.

And he's also missed significant time each year he's played. 35-38 mins would be a monster amount for a 7 footer with his history. I get it, he's young and will be one of our better players next year, but we would be so lucky to get 70+ games of maaaybe 30 mins/game out of him next year. Get to the playoffs. Then you can start thinking about playing him 30+ mins.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by saclare

And he's also missed significant time each year he's played. 35-38 mins would be a monster amount for a 7 footer with his history. I get it, he's young and will be one of our better players next year, but we would be so lucky to get 70+ games of maaaybe 30 mins/game out of him next year. Get to the playoffs. Then you can start thinking about playing him 30+ mins.

Exactly man. The days of running guys into the ground is done. Noel should be kept around 25-30. Dirk needs Center minutes these days anyway. Maybe we can pick up a Withey type for spot minutes

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Exactly man. The days of running guys into the ground is done. Noel should be kept around 25-30. Dirk needs Center minutes these days anyway. Maybe we can pick up a Withey type for spot minutes

We can use a good backup, then. I love Mejri's fire, but he's too unreliable (and too old at 30) to be relied on to play 18-23 mpg.

Powell just needs to be gone, but it seems like he'll be back, but as a PF.