Official offseason 2013-2014 thread

[grndmstr_c]

Mekel and Ledo are hardly big risks, though. Their contracts are barely largely than a cap hold. Relative to the potential reward, that's nothing.

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by moogle

Daryl Morey must've really made an impression on Mark Cuban.

First the Mavs hand a Chandler Parsons-esque contract to an unproven 2nd rd pick in Ledo. Then they take another Houston-like gamble on rookie Gal Mekel by giving him a fully guaranteed 3-year contract for the minimum. Then they poach Gersson Rosas from the Rockets' front office.

I only hope the Mavs' scouting department can justify the gambles the Mavs' front office is taking.

Calling either of those deals a gamble is quite a stretch signing ledo is a good deal and a guaranteed minimum contract for gal? Neither really a "gamble"

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by moogle

Daryl Morey must've really made an impression on Mark Cuban.

First the Mavs hand a Chandler Parsons-esque contract to an unproven 2nd rd pick in Ledo. Then they take another Houston-like gamble on rookie Gal Mekel by giving him a fully guaranteed 3-year contract for the minimum. Then they poach Gersson Rosas from the Rockets' front office.

I only hope the Mavs' scouting department can justify the gambles the Mavs' front office is taking.

A three year guarantee on a minimum contract is a team asset, not a gamble. There's way, way, way more potential to get excess value from the contract than for it to be a problem if the player doesn't pan out.

A three year minimum deal is a sign that the team had all the negotiating power. Otherwise Mekel would have negotiated for a shorter length with the hopes that he would earn a larger pay day.

[LonghornDub]

Offered without comment:

@RealGM Derek Fisher Agrees To Re-Sign With Thunder -- http://bit.ly/170pwFD

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by moogle

Daryl Morey must've really made an impression on Mark Cuban.

First the Mavs hand a Chandler Parsons-esque contract to an unproven 2nd rd pick in Ledo. Then they take another Houston-like gamble on rookie Gal Mekel by giving him a fully guaranteed 3-year contract for the minimum. Then they poach Gersson Rosas from the Rockets' front office.

I only hope the Mavs' scouting department can justify the gambles the Mavs' front office is taking.

Ledo is getting table scraps and the last 2 years aren't fully guaranteed. Mekel is up and coming. Only an injury could stop him from making noise in the NBA

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Offered without comment:

Love the 2 quotes under the article. Fans don't want him

[The British Texan]

I am really very positive about our potential this year. A nice blend of youth and experience?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by moogle

Daryl Morey must've really made an impression on Mark Cuban.

Mark Cuban is a regular attendee of Morey's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference...

[moogle]

Originally Posted by jthig32

A three year guarantee on a minimum contract is a team asset, not a gamble. There's way, way, way more potential to get excess value from the contract than for it to be a problem if the player doesn't pan out.

It is a gamble. If it's not a gamble, then every team in the league would be locking up their 2nd round picks to multi-year guaranteed contracts. The chances of 2nd round picks turning into solid NBA players is very slim. Locking them to multi-year guarantees means you're putting a lot of faith in your scouting department.

Normally, only 1st rd picks get multi-year guarantees. All other rookies usually have non-guaranteed 2nd years. For example, if Bernard James and Josh Akognon had guaranteed contracts we wouldn't have been able to waive them for cap space last week. That extra $2M in the payroll would've prevented us from acquiring our starting center (Dalembert).

These contracts aren't "assets" until the rookies prove they belong in the NBA. In fact, these contracts could easily turn into a "liabilities" if the 2nd round picks flop. Statistically, that is far more likely. That's why this a gamble. A team would have to be supremely confident in their scouting department to hand 2nd round picks and undrafteed rookies a multi-year guarantee. The Rockets were unique because they habitually do this. This is the first time I've actually seen the Mavs do it.

This strategy is a definite 180-degree turn for the Mavs. It wasn't long ago when they were trying to trade out of the first round because they didn't want to hand multi-year deals to rookies.

Originally Posted by jthig32

A three year minimum deal is a sign that the team had all the negotiating power. Otherwise Mekel would have negotiated for a shorter length with the hopes that he would earn a larger pay day.

Neither side had "all" the negotiating power. The Mavs gambled $2M worth of cap space next summer, in the hopes that these rookies turn into solid NBA players. The rookies sacrificed a slim chance at a future raise in exchange for long-term financial security.

Ledo, for example, is guaranteed to receive almost $1.4M even if he never plays an NBA game. That's a generous contract for a second round pick. Statistically, most 2nd round picks are out of the league after the 1st season. Their career earnings stop at the first year, at less than $500k.

[EricaLubarsky]

BTW Ledo's contract costs
$550k
$830k
$925k (team option, partially guaranteed)
$975k (team option, no guarantee)

You want to tell me that that is a bad contract for a guy that was a top-3 guy out of high school? Subtract 500k from each year and you have his total cap impact because that's what his empty roster spot would take up of the cap, anyway.

Actual cap impact?

50k
330k
425k (or possibly $0 if we don't pick him up)
475k (or possibly $0 if we don't pick him up)

[grndmstr_c]

The Mavs gambled $2M worth of cap space next summer

No, they didn't. The amount is a lot closer to $350 thousand per player.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by moogle

Neither side had "all" the negotiating power. The Mavs gambled $2M worth of cap space next summer, in the hopes that these rookies turn into solid NBA players.

Check your math.

An empty roster spot costs us $490k this year and $507k next year.

This year
Ledo 0.550 mill ($60k against the cap beyond a cap hold for not having him)
Mekel 0.490 mill ($0 against the cap)
---------------
combined? 0.060 million cap hit

Next year
Ledo 0.848 million (0.341 mill against the cap more than not having him)
Mekel 0.816 million (0.307 mill against the cap more than not having him)
---------------------
combined? 0.648 mill for TWO high potential players.

Not only is it not even a gross salary of 2 million (1.664 mill between them), it's only $60,000 net against our cap this year, and a combined 0.648 mill next year!

Is less than 2/3 of one million dollars going to hurt us, particularly when it's for two young guys with potential? Get real.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

BTW Ledo's contract costs
$550k
$830k
$925k (team option, partially guaranteed)
$975k (team option, no guarantee)

You want to tell me that that is a bad contract for a guy that was a top-3 guy out of high school?

Who said it was a bad contract? It's neither a good contract or a bad contract. It's just a gamble. Like any gamble, the results can be good or bad.

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Subtract 500k from each year and you have his total cap impact because that's what his empty roster spot would take up of the cap, anyway.

Actual cap impact?

50k
330k

Only if the Mavs have 12 or fewer players on the roster next summer, including all free agents they sign next summer. That seems unlikely. I expect 9 players from this season to carry over into the next. Plus a potential 2014 draftee. With about $20M of cap space, the Mavs will probably add more than 2 players in free agency. That means Ledo's cap hold will be the full amount.

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Check your math.

Is less than 2/3 of one million dollars going to hurt us, particularly when it's for two young guys with potential? Get real.

Seriously, why are you so hostile towards me?

[jasonic]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Offered without comment:

If all the Mavs fans posted their starting 5 Mavs that we hated he could be easily in all teams.

Mine could be sth like that

Fisher
George
Walker
Odom
Dampier

I hope Calderon doesn't make this team in a couple of years.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by moogle

Who said it was a bad contract? It's neither a good contract or a bad contract. It's just a gamble. Like any gamble, the results can be good or bad.




Only if the Mavs have 12 or fewer players on the roster next summer, including all free agents they sign next summer. That seems unlikely. I expect 9 players from this season to carry over into the next. Plus a potential 2014 draftee. With about $20M of cap space, the Mavs will probably add more than 2 players in free agency. That means Ledo's cap hold will be the full amount.

You are excellent at crying while not saying anything.

+We sign Brandan Wright and you whine that it's 1 million too much.
+We sign James for the minimum and you complain about his height without shoes
+We sign a guy that would have been a lottery pick had he been eligible to play in college and a foreign guy who tore up the summer league and you complain about their minimum contracts (combined 1.6mill next year, although you say it's 2)

Good lord, you are awful.

I bet if I bought a candybar for a quarter you'd still say that it was a "gamble" because it may have gone bad or if I won $5,000 off of a scratcher you'd say that it was more like $2,000 because of taxes and my credit card bill.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by jasonic

If all the Mavs fans posted their starting 5 Mavs that we hated he could be easily in all teams.

Mine could be sth like that

Fisher
George
Walker
Odom
Dampier

I hope Calderon doesn't make this team in a couple of years.

Damp certainly shouldn't be on the list, and I can't say I agree with George. The other 3, though, are clear-cut favorites. I think I may despise Fisher even more than Odom, somehow.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

You are excellent at crying while not saying anything.

+We sign a guy that would have been a lottery pick had he been eligible to play in college and a foreign guy who tore up the summer league and you complain about their minimum contracts (combined 1.6mill next year, although you say it's 2)

Good lord, you are awful.

Exactly where in this thread did I complain about the Ledo/Mekel signings? I just called them gambles. I never realized that a 'gamble' is a bad thing. You're reading waaaay too much negativity into my comments.

Good lord, you are really a piece of work.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by moogle

Exactly where in this thread did I complain about the Ledo/Mekel signings? I just called them gambles. I never realized that a 'gamble' is a bad thing. You're reading waaaay too much negativity into my comments.

Good lord, you are really a piece of work.

When you have a consistent track record of being whiny, petty and annoying, it doesn't take much to get on people's nerves.

When you start nitpicking jthig when he says that it's not really a gamble because it's like buying a $1 scratcher by going into all the ways that it's a risky endeavor that you CAN lose, you really solidified your role on my shit list.

Let me tell you something about Jthig-- he KNOWS. He knows basketball and he knows that EVERYTHING in life is a gamble. Spending three paragraphs to lecture him on how a low-risk-high-return gamble is a gamble is mindless and vapid.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

When you have a consistent track record of being whiny, petty and annoying, it doesn't take much to get on people's nerves.

When you start nitpicking jthig when he says that it's not really a gamble because it's like buying a $1 scratcher by going into all the ways that it's a risky endeavor that you CAN lose, you really solidified your role on my shit list.

Do me a favor and stop replying to my posts. I've gone out of my way to avoid your posts, except whenever you're replying/stalking me.

And for the record, it's jthig that's nitpicking me. He's the one who first replied to me with a disagreement (not the other way around). Believe it or not, two people can have a disagreement without making it personal. Although in your case, that doesn't seem possible.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by moogle

Do me a favor and stop replying to my posts. I've gone out of my way to avoid your posts, except whenever you're replying/stalking me.

Do yourself a favor and click
Usercp
edit ignore list
Add me to it

Instead of asking me to make the change, why don't you put your big boy panties on and take the initiative.

[DavidDaMonkey]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Damp certainly shouldn't be on the list, and I can't say I agree with George. The other 3, though, are clear-cut favorites. I think I may despise Fisher even more than Odom, somehow.

I feel the same way about Fisher. I think I feel like he's better than that. Odom's just a bum.

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by moogle

Exactly where in this thread did I complain about the Ledo/Mekel signings? I just called them gambles. I never realized that a 'gamble' is a bad thing. You're reading waaaay too much negativity into my comments.

Good lord, you are really a piece of work.

Why would you suggest that the scouting department should have to justify something if you don't have a problem with it? Those were your words, right?

[moogle]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Do yourself a favor and click
Usercp
edit ignore list
Add me to it

I have no need to put you in the ignore filter, because I've stopped replying to your posts that aren't addressed to me. I don't want to set off that temper of yours. However, I do reply to you whenever you address me specifically. It doesn't help that you've been hounding almost every one of my posts for the past few days.

In this thread alone you've already used words like "whiny" "annoying" "nitpicking" "panties" "petty" "shit" and "crying". These are just basketball discussions, but you've made things waaay too personal. Perhaps it's you that needs to take advantage of the ignore filter. Maybe you'll be less angry that way.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by ribosoma

Why would you suggest that the scouting department should have to justify something if you don't have a problem with it? Those were your words, right?

Yes, those were my words. I said if a team hands a guaranteed contract to a 2nd round pick, they have to be supremely confident in their scouts. I used Houston and Dallas as examples of teams that do this.

I don't see anything wrong with what I said.

[yahyes]

Giving Ledo a fair contract like that is not even close to gambling. That's almost as dumb as someone suggesting we should re-sign Drew Gooden. Mavs need PROSPECTS.

[EricaLubarsky]

Fisher is like the girlfriend that you only ask out after a terrible breakup-- a gal that all your friends have already dated and none of them understood why they even went on a date with her because she's boring, self-involved and lectures you about politics and philosophy and she's only "fun" because she does things like borrow your wallet to take you out to a concert. She offers to pay you back, but before doing so dumps you with a lie about having mono and needing to study for a stats class when she's really out with another friend of yours seeing a Blondie cover band play and ordering drinks on your credit card, and telling your friend that all men are superficial these days.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Giving Ledo a fair contract like that is not even close to gambling. That's almost as dumb as someone suggesting we should re-sign Drew Gooden. Mavs need PROSPECTS.

It is a gamble. Take a look at all the 2nd round picks from the 2012 draft. The majority of them won't be in the league in 2013. For every Chandler Parsons, there are probably 2-3 scrubs that never amount to anything.

But I don't see anything wrong with gambling. Teams have to take risks to get ahead. However, it never occured to me that the word "gamble" would be considered controversial. If I had said "take a chance on Ledo" instead of "gambling on Ledo" people wouldn't have protested. Even though those words mean the exact same thing.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by moogle

It is a gamble. Take a look at all the 2nd round picks from the 2012 draft. The majority of them won't be in the league in 2013. For every Chandler Parsons, there are probably 2-3 scrubs that never amount to anything.

But I don't see anything wrong with gambling. Teams have to take risks to get ahead. However, it never occured to me that the word "gamble" would be considered controversial. If I had said "take a chance on Ledo" instead of "gambling on Ledo" people wouldn't have protested. Even though those words mean the exact same thing.

If Ledo's contract is a gamble, then what's your definition of a sure-shot?

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by moogle

Yes, those were my words. I said if a team hands a guaranteed contract to a 2nd round pick, they have to be supremely confident in their scouts. I used Houston and Dallas as examples of teams that do this.

I don't see anything wrong with what I said.

I'm not trying to attack you, I'm pointing out that your original post was specific in its criticism, but now that it has been pointed out that those signings aren't really a gamble from a cap perspective, you seem to be deliberately obscuring your original point to save face, when most of us here get things wrong from time to time. I know I do.

[ribosoma]

Originally Posted by Underdog

If Ledo's contract is a gamble, then what's your definition of a sure-shot?

That's the point. It isn't a gamble because he's a first round talent that the Mavs were supremely fortunate to have fall into their laps. At some point you have to look at this from a case by case perspective, and the poster in question isn't doing that at the moment.

[marc9211]

Originally Posted by moogle

It is a gamble. Take a look at all the 2nd round picks from the 2012 draft. The majority of them won't be in the league in 2013. For every Chandler Parsons, there are probably 2-3 scrubs that never amount to anything.

But I don't see anything wrong with gambling. Teams have to take risks to get ahead. However, it never occured to me that the word "gamble" would be considered controversial. If I had said "take a chance on Ledo" instead of "gambling on Ledo" people wouldn't have protested. Even though those words mean the exact same thing.

Haha damn moogle your taking some bullets.. You'll get em next time tiger

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by moogle

It is a gamble. Take a look at all the 2nd round picks from the 2012 draft. The majority of them won't be in the league in 2013. For every Chandler Parsons, there are probably 2-3 scrubs that never amount to anything.

But I don't see anything wrong with gambling. Teams have to take risks to get ahead. However, it never occured to me that the word "gamble" would be considered controversial. If I had said "take a chance on Ledo" instead of "gambling on Ledo" people wouldn't have protested. Even though those words mean the exact same thing.

Marc Gasol, Asik, Varejao, Millsap, and Gortat. All we're second rounders. But I don't think the franchises who drafted them were "gambling". You're nitpicking and not looking at the idea front office badly needs that player to be their molding guy. Ledo is the guy with his stature and abilities.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

BTW Ledo's contract costs
$550k
$830k
$925k (team option, partially guaranteed)
$975k (team option, no guarantee)

You want to tell me that that is a bad contract for a guy that was a top-3 guy out of high school? Subtract 500k from each year and you have his total cap impact because that's what his empty roster spot would take up of the cap, anyway.

Actual cap impact?

50k
330k
425k (or possibly $0 if we don't pick him up)
475k (or possibly $0 if we don't pick him up)

Ledo was considered a consensus top-25 recruit out of high school. I watch a lot of Big East(rip)ball.
Also I'm thrilled they have him locked up for the four years, prospectively.
It's a good gamble

[moogle]

Originally Posted by ribosoma

but now that it has been pointed out that those signings aren't really a gamble from a cap perspective...

There's been some misinformation spread in this thread about the cap effects of Ledo's contract. I thought I addressed it already, but let me make it clearer. Remember that an empy cap hold of about $490k is only mandatory if you have 12 or fewer players on the roster. In that situation, Ledo's cap hit is minimal ($816k minus $490k = $326k). That is the wrong assumption some people have been making in this thread.

Unfortunately, the Mavs will almost certainly have more than 12 players on the roster next summer. Consider:

• Dirk, Ellington, Calderon, Ledo, Larkin, Wright, Mekel, Dalembert, Ellis, Boston's 2nd Rd Pick.

That's already 10 players, without even including the cap hold on Jae Crowder or Dallas' own 1st rd pick. That's not even counting free agents they will sign next summer. Mavs will almost certainly have more than 12 players on the roster next July. Therefore, Ledo & Mekel's cap hit will be the full amount of their salaries (and not the difference between $490k and their salary).

$816,000 + $816,000 = $1.6M. That is the most probable cap hit.

That may not sound like much, but it does have an effect. Think about what the Mavs did last week. In order to sign Dalembert, they had to waive a pair of rookies from last year who had non-guaranteed contracts. Now imagine if those rookies had been given guaranteed contracts last summer. Then the Mavs may not have been able to sign Dalembert at all. By handing guaranteed contracts to Ledo & Mekel, the Mavs are betting those two are good players they will NOT want to waive next summer (unlike James/Akognon).

That's the "gamble" I'm talking about. It's not a bad thing or a good thing. It's just a gamble. I don't know why some people got flustered just because I'm pointed it out.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by moogle

That's the "gamble" I'm talking about. It's not a bad thing or a good thing. It's just a gamble. I don't know why some people got flustered just because I'm pointed it out.

It's because calling it a "gamble," while technically accurate, is really uninformative in this context. You've effectively reduced the definition of "gamble" to anything that could possibly have a negative consequence, with no regard to likelihood or magnitude. That's not a meaningful usage of "gamble" in most contexts, but it's especially meaningless in sports, where the vast majority of decisions carry significantly greater risk than the ones we're discussing here.

Put another way: if you're going to label these moves a "gamble," then pretty much every non-negligible thing an NBA front office does is a gamble.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by moogle

It is a gamble. If it's not a gamble, then every team in the league would be locking up their 2nd round picks to multi-year guaranteed contracts. The chances of 2nd round picks turning into solid NBA players is very slim. Locking them to multi-year guarantees means you're putting a lot of faith in your scouting department.

Normally, only 1st rd picks get multi-year guarantees. All other rookies usually have non-guaranteed 2nd years. For example, if Bernard James and Josh Akognon had guaranteed contracts we wouldn't have been able to waive them for cap space last week. That extra $2M in the payroll would've prevented us from acquiring our starting center (Dalembert).

These contracts aren't "assets" until the rookies prove they belong in the NBA. In fact, these contracts could easily turn into a "liabilities" if the 2nd round picks flop. Statistically, that is far more likely. That's why this a gamble. A team would have to be supremely confident in their scouting department to hand 2nd round picks and undrafteed rookies a multi-year guarantee. The Rockets were unique because they habitually do this. This is the first time I've actually seen the Mavs do it.

This strategy is a definite 180-degree turn for the Mavs. It wasn't long ago when they were trying to trade out of the first round because they didn't want to hand multi-year deals to rookies.





Neither side had "all" the negotiating power. The Mavs gambled $2M worth of cap space next summer, in the hopes that these rookies turn into solid NBA players. The rookies sacrificed a slim chance at a future raise in exchange for long-term financial security.

Ledo, for example, is guaranteed to receive almost $1.4M even if he never plays an NBA game. That's a generous contract for a second round pick. Statistically, most 2nd round picks are out of the league after the 1st season. Their career earnings stop at the first year, at less than $500k.

If Mekel flops horribly this season, the Mavs can waive him and he'll count less than a roster hold for the next five seasons. They could do the same to Ledo and he'd count less than 300k for three seasons. That's not "nothing", but it's pretty damn close. The stretch provision mitigates your low salary contracts to the point that giving multiple years becomes very attractive.

If you want to call it a gamble, fine, but it's like gambling with the odds stacked in your favor. The risk is heavily mitigated and there is potential for massive gains in contractual value.

Also, I haven't truly crunched the numbers, but it sure looks to me that waiving James was about making enough room to sign Ledo with cap room so they could give him four years. If they couldn't have signed him, it probably just means Ledo gets the two years under the exception.

I doubt that Dalembert isn't here if they couldn't have executed those moves. It's possible, but I doubt it.

I didn't really think you were being overly negative, but I do think "gamble" without any context or assessment of risk vs reward is simplistic and too vague to be of any real value as a talking point.

[moogle]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I didn't really think you were being overly negative, but I do think "gamble" without any context or assessment of risk vs reward is simplistic and too vague to be of any real value as a talking point.

I think if I had said that the Mavs "bet on Ledo" instead of "gambled on Ledo" then maybe some people wouldn't have reacted the way they did. And it would have saved this thread from a lot of unnecessary drama and wasted bandwidth. Which is funny, because the words "bet" and "gamble" mean the same thing.

[chumdawg]

Oh, I think those words have clearly different connotations. When we say "don't bet on it," we usually mean to imply that the outcome is less likely to happen than not. And if someone decides not to heed our advice, and bets anyway, we usually shrug, "Well, he took a gamble. It's his money, he can do what he wants with it."

In other words, I agree completely with the first thing you said. But not the last thing.

[rabbitproof]

Much ado about nothing!

I do see moogle's point.. it's a small gamble but we're playing a game where every dollar counts by being under the cap and wanting to sign free agents (unlike when you are over and are just counting luxury tax dollars).

[GermanStandard]

Gamble: Giving guys like Oden or Bynum shitty multi year deals, not knowing if they ever get healthy again (at least in Oden's case)

Brilliance: Giving a pretty sure Lottery Pick who would have never fallen into the laps of the Mavs when he would have played College a potential 4 year deal while paying nearly nothing for it is a pretty good move.

Of course you never know how it turns out. Maybe Ledo or Mekel will be benchwarmers for years and not make any impact. But the Mavs learned from the past 2 Offseasons. Gambling on Big Free Agents to somehow join the Mavs (what didnt went off pretty well recently) is not the solution. Its about taking lowrisk = high reward guys with upside while not overpaying them and add some good asset players in the next years to build a dynamic young team and then maybe one of those young guys turns out to be the next franchise player or you maybe get some because you have nice trading value.