Offseason 2010 Thread

[bernardos70]

Too lazy to go back and read this thread....... but where did this McGrady crazyness enter this thread, and who is responsible.

[Rhylan]

Originally Posted by bernardos70

Too lazy to go back and read this thread....... but where did this McGrady crazyness enter this thread, and who is responsible.

It'd be a lot easier to figure out if we didn't insist on piling everything into one thread, eh?

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by bobbyfg7

Anyone have ESPN Insider? I'm curious to see what this turd has to say about James' best possible sidekicks.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...ings_hollinger

Here you go.

The conference finals are under way, but let's be honest: The biggest story in the NBA is LeBron James' upcoming free-agency tour. Nothing less than the future of the league is at stake. OK, that might be a bit extreme, but you can argue that a player of his stature has never been available at such a young age. With that in mind, Insider brings you LeBron Week, a five-part look at every aspect of James' decision. First up, John Hollinger examines the best possible sidekick for LeBron.

LeBron James hits free agency in six weeks, and we've read a lot of tea leaves about which landing spots would work best for him. But today, it's time to turn the analysis on its head: Which players would benefit most from teaming up with LeBron?

For the purposes of brevity and sanity, I'm restricting the debate to star players who could plausibly team up with LeBron next year. Sure, Kobe Bryant would make a great teammate for King James, but I don't see that one as being terribly realistic.

Instead, let's look at what, statistically, might make a player a good fit with LeBron and then work backward to determine which ones possess the most positive attributes.

In order, here are the most important criteria:


1. He will not hog the ball. LeBron ranked second in the NBA last year with a 32.2 usage rate, which doesn't leave a ton of possessions for another ball-hungry player. The fact is, LeBron's teammates will be playing off the ball most of the time, and anyone doing his own thing is just taking the ball out of LeBron's hands.

Additionally, James' strength and stamina enable him to play 40 minutes 80 times per season, so there are relatively few opportunities for a ball-needy player to operate while LeBron is on the bench. This is one reason why many question how a LeBron-Dwyane Wade partnership would work -- Wade led the league in usage rate last year.

2. He will space the floor. The ideal James teammate will play on the outside, not on the inside, because that creates maximum space for James to complete his freight train drives to the rim. The best complements are players who both take and make a large percentage of their shots from the perimeter. To rate this for our purposes, I used a player's shooting percentage on long 2-pointers this season, courtesy of NBA.com.

3. He will finish what he starts. A high-usage player is going to have trouble pairing with LeBron, but a high-efficiency player should thrive. We're looking for players with a high true shooting percentage -- a player's shooting percentage adjusted for 3-pointers and free throws -- since those players can take best advantage of the shot opportunities LeBron creates for them.

4. He will crash the boards. Wherever he goes, James is likely to lead the team in shot attempts ... and in misses. That's why an Anderson Varejao-type who crashes the boards can be so successful as one of his teammates. While few star players fit this profile, there are a couple who supplement their scoring with offensive boards, and they'd make better complements for James.

So we have four key metrics we're looking at for in an ideal James teammate -- low usage rate, high TS%, high offensive rebound rate and strong outside shooting numbers. The "low usage" requirement is relative, as every star will be above the league average in that category; similarly, the bar for offensive rebound rate needs to be set low, since most stars are taking the shots, not collecting the misses. Nonetheless, this at least provides some guidelines for our star search.

Using this data, I created a "LeBron Rating" for each player by taking three-fourths of the player's true shooting percentage, subtracting half his usage rate, adding his offensive rebound rate and subtracting twice his turnover rate.

From that, we get results that neatly split the top dogs on the league's primary LeBron contenders into five groups:

Potential LeBron teammates: a comparison
Player Usg TS% TO Off. Reb. Long 2% LeBron Rating
Chris Bosh 25.9 59.2 9.6 9.9 46.3 71.7
Dirk Nowitzki 26.1 57.8 7.0 3.1 47.2 69.3
David Lee 22.2 58.4 10.0 8.4 43.9 68.6
Amare Stoudemire 24.4 61.5 11.6 9.7 41.0 66.6
Carlos Boozer 23.1 59.9 12.3 8.2 45.2 65.9
Joe Johnson 25.3 53.8 7.2 3.0 42.1 61.3
Rudy Gay 21.0 53.5 9.5 4.2 40.8 58.8
Derrick Rose 26.3 53.2 9.8 2.6 44.3 56.3
Dwyane Wade 33.2 56.2 9.8 4.5 35.8 51.4
Devin Harris 25.2 51.2 10.9 1.2 39.1 47.3
Baron Davis 24.7 50.1 10.8 2.4 36.0 45.6

The perfect companion: Chris Bosh
Bosh hits every check mark on the list above. He's an outstanding midrange shooter who would provide a fearsome weapon on the pick-and-pop, something James has never really had in Cleveland. His offensive rebound rate (9.9 percent) was in the top third of power forwards, which is amazing considering how often he played outside. His turnover rate was in the bottom third and his TS% (59.2) was outstanding.

Near-perfect companions: Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudemire, David Lee, Carlos Boozer
The lesson here: Pairing LeBron with a floor-spacing 4 can be really, really effective. We'll start with Nowitzki, the gold standard in this category. Dallas doesn't have the cap space to pursue LeBron, but that doesn't mean they won't try like the dickens with some combo of Erick Dampier's nonguaranteed deal, talented prospect Rodrigue Beaubois and any other goodies ($3 million and a future first-rounder, for instance) they can muster.

If they pulled it off, Dirk and LeBron would make a fearsome pair. Nowitzki doesn't rebound like Bosh does but is an even better outside shooter; and, as with Bosh, Nowitzki has both a low turnover rate and a high TS%.

Stoudemire isn't as good an outside shooter, but he's solid from midrange and otherwise possesses similar qualities as Bosh -- a stellar TS% (61.5), a strong offensive rebound rate and a fairly low rate of turnovers.

Lee and Boozer are birds of a feather when it comes to playing with LeBron -- they both can stick a midrange jumper but their primary value comes in slamming home offensive rebounds and making hard dives to the basket after they set screens. Boozer (59.9) and Lee (58.4) both had strong TS% and low turnover rates, and are good offensive rebounders; one worry, however, is that neither can defend a twig.

Now we're forcing things a bit: Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Derrick Rose
On the perimeter, Johnson and Gay would each provide James with a huge tag-team partner on the wing; this might be less than ideal defensively against quicker 2s but would be pretty fearsome on offense. However, both players are more comfortable playing with the ball and neither is a high-percentage sniper; Johnson (53.8) and Gay (53.2) had middling TS% stats and only average offensive rebound rates. While both numbers might increase in a subordinate role, it's not the killer combo that the four power forwards above provide.

Similarly, Rose's game is hardly a perfect match for James. He wants the ball in his hands (second among point guards in usage rate), and while he's a very good midrange shooter, he doesn't have the catch-and-shoot, long-range game that would help space the floor for LeBron when he's off the ball. While Rose is likely to improve in the coming years, and would form a devastating running mate in transition, the combo isn't ideal.

Whole less than sum of its parts: Dwyane Wade, Devin Harris
Let's get this straight: LeBron with Wade would be awesome together because of their overwhelming talent. But it's naive to think that pairing the two stars wouldn't subtract from the output of each. Wade had the league's highest usage rate this past season, is a limited jump shooter and is relatively turnover prone. Playing off the ball, he'd be far less useful than a Bosh or a Nowitzki.

Harris has a similar issue -- he's a straight dribble-driver who doesn't have a role to play off the ball. Like Rose and Wade, he's at his best when he can be the one at the top of the key handling the ball and slashing through defenses. As a catch-and-shoot weapon, he's mediocre at best.

The worst: Baron Davis
The Los Angeles Clippers want to sell James on the quality of the four players they already have in place, but the best of the bunch (Davis) could hardly be less suited to playing with him. A stubborn ball-dominator who shoots erratically, Davis' TS% (50.1) was among the worst of NBA stars. Spotting up on the weak side from James, he'd be more than happy to hoist 3s and, unfortunately, that's a problem, since he converts so few of them.

[mkat]

bosh + lebron would be quite a duo.

[Nowitzki4President]

Do you think Cleveland would accept: Roddy Beaubois/Caron Butler/Erick Dampier + what ever picks needed for LeBron?

If not, I don't know much more we can throw in, making it a moot point...

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by Nowitzki4President

Do you think Cleveland would accept: Roddy Beaubois/Caron Butler/Erick Dampier + what ever picks needed for LeBron?

If not, I don't know much more we can throw in, making it a moot point...

I was thinking more along the lines of Damp + Butler + JJB + picks. My guess is that the Cavs will demand Roddy, I just hope Dallas would find a way to keep him.

That said, if LeBron wants to come to Dallas to play with Dirk and demands a trade to the Mavericks - 99% of the battle has already been won. With LeBron and Dirk we could win multiple NBA titles...

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Nowitzki4President

Do you think Cleveland would accept: Roddy Beaubois/Caron Butler/Erick Dampier + what ever picks needed for LeBron?

If not, I don't know much more we can throw in, making it a moot point...

Oh I'm sure they would with gun on them. I'd throw the picks out there first and hang onto Butler or Boobs. Then up the ante with Butler. I'd toss out Terry first/Carroll, Barea.

[Windmill360]

Can we even afford to sign Lebron without including another big contract with damp?

[Bayliss]

Bosh is not a better pairing with LeBron than Dirk is..... The only advantage that Bosh has over Dirk is age.

[Dirkadirkastan]

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

I'm feeling lucky...

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I'm feeling lucky...

That takes you here. Last updated August 6, 2008.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Windmill360

Can we even afford to sign Lebron without including another big contract with damp?

Lebron made 15,779,000, Damp made 12,115,500. Nope, there's a 30% gap. I'm assuming Lebron will get his max 12%raise and Damp's option would be a 12% raise as well. Drop Matt Carroll in, cap wise that would work. Same with Barea. IF Lebron says he wants Dallas, then I offer, Damp with either Barea and Carroll along with 3 #1's and 3 million cash.....to start, then I start dropping other names as the talent side rises.

[Thomas86]

Countdown: LeBron's future
Ian Thomsen
SI.com

...Several teams are worthy of his consideration, but each has issues that must be resolved.

The Mavericks: They are the dark horse, and they should be taken very seriously. They don't have cap space, but they do have an ambitious owner with a tradition of spending big in hope of winning championships, they have James' good friend Jason Kidd at point guard and they have a future Hall of Famer in Dirk Nowitzki -- and how would rivals match up against a front line of Dirk and LeBron? If James tells the Cavs he is leaving, wouldn't they prefer to participate in a sign-and-trade to retrieve assets from Dallas instead of enabling James to freely join with an Eastern conference rival like Chicago, New York or Miami? It stands to reason that Cleveland would much rather see James move to the West than remain in the East to haunt them. The Mavs have enough depth to work a sign-and-trade and still compete for the championship next year, especially since they could employ their mid-level exception to fill in with tough-minded role players. I guarantee that Mark Cuban was cheering loudly for Boston Thursday night.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ron/index.html

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Thomas86

Countdown: LeBron's future
Ian Thomsen
SI.com

...Several teams are worthy of his consideration, but each has issues that must be resolved.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ron/index.html

I'm glad somebody finally mentioned this:

If James tells the Cavs he is leaving, wouldn't they prefer to participate in a sign-and-trade to retrieve assets from Dallas instead of enabling James to freely join with an Eastern conference rival like Chicago, New York or Miami? It stands to reason that Cleveland would much rather see James move to the West than remain in the East to haunt them.

How many other teams in the WEST stand a realistic shot at landing LeBron?

All the front-runners seem to hail from the Eastern Conference...

[Dirkadirkastan]

How much would Cleveland care if they're going to be a bottom feeder team?

[Windmill360]

I think they would still care if given the chance. Stern should love it too. He finally gets a better chance at his coveted Kobe vs Lebron playoff series.

[mkat]

Originally Posted by Bayliss

Bosh is not a better pairing with LeBron than Dirk is..... The only advantage that Bosh has over Dirk is age.

and rebounding ability.

[SeriousSummer]

If I was Cleveland, I would want to do: Damp, Beaubois, Barea, Butler and Stevenson and two No. 1s about three and five years out, for James, Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson.

That leaves you with something to build around and some future. If Beaubois develops well enough, then maybe all the cap room would let you bring in a talented free agent. If not, you've got draft picks after the Mavs begin to go downhill.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Yeah, don't put Lebron and Stevenson on the same team.

[CadBane]

Originally Posted by mkat

and rebounding ability.

Which is because of age. Prime Dirk was a better rebounder than Bosh. Bosh also has inflated rebounding numbers because he plays with probably THE worst rebounding center in the NBA in Bargs. Not to mention other mediocre/weak rebounders in Hedo, Calderon/Jack, Wright, DeRozan. On the Mavs Bosh's rebound numbers substantially drop. As far as defensive rebounding goes, even now the difference is minimal.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by SeriousSummer

If I was Cleveland, I would want to do: Damp, Beaubois, Barea, Butler and Stevenson and two No. 1s about three and five years out, for James, Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson.

That leaves you with something to build around and some future. If Beaubois develops well enough, then maybe all the cap room would let you bring in a talented free agent. If not, you've got draft picks after the Mavs begin to go downhill.

If I were the Mavs I'd want something different. Granted, it lands the best player in the game with the Mavs, but on the whole I'm just not in love with the way the roster ends up being balanced. Of course, outside of Varejao there's not really anybody on Cleveland's roster who would seem to be a natural fit in Dallas, so maybe that's just unavoidable.

At any rate, if Cleveland's aim in the deal is to unload salary, I'd think their priority would be to unload Jamison. Mo's contract is a comparative bargain, and Gibson's one of the few guys who'd have a chance to increase his value for the Cavs with Lebron off the team.

[badfish22]

[SeriousSummer]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

If I were the Mavs I'd want something different. Granted, it lands the best player in the game with the Mavs, but on the whole I'm just not in love with the way the roster ends up being balanced. Of course, outside of Varejao there's not really anybody on Cleveland's roster who would seem to be a natural fit in Dallas, so maybe that's just unavoidable.

At any rate, if Cleveland's aim in the deal is to unload salary, I'd think their priority would be to unload Jamison. Mo's contract is a comparative bargain, and Gibson's one of the few guys who'd have a chance to increase his value for the Cavs with Lebron off the team.

That's another reasonable possibility, but the only valuable cheap players the Mavs have are guards (Barea, Beaubois) and Butler who's a wing. If you move Jamison to the Mavs, then the Mavs don't have any guards and Cleveland doesn't have any bigs. It makes both teams worse.

Also, I was looking at three year contracts in Gibson and Williams, as against Jamison's remaining two years.

I don't much like the way that trade leaves the rosters either, but I think if you're the Mavs that you have to do it. Kidd/Terry/James/Dirk/Haywood (resigned) plus whatever else that you can cobble together is a team that competes for the championship.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by SeriousSummer

That's another reasonable possibility, but the only valuable cheap players the Mavs have are guards (Barea, Beaubois) and Butler who's a wing. If you move Jamison to the Mavs, then the Mavs don't have any guards and Cleveland doesn't have any bigs. It makes both teams worse.

Also, I was looking at three year contracts in Gibson and Williams, as against Jamison's remaining two years.

I don't much like the way that trade leaves the rosters either, but I think if you're the Mavs that you have to do it. Kidd/Terry/James/Dirk/Haywood (resigned) plus whatever else that you can cobble together is a team that competes for the championship.

I'm sure contract length matters to the Cavs, especially if they lose James, but 8.5-9 million per year for a couple years for a true starting caliber point guard (I'm anticipating here that Mo opts out of the last year on his current deal) and another 4-4.5 million per year for three years for a 24 year old combo guard with hellaciously good range isn't something that any team is likely to balk at. As long as they don't take back anybody on a deal longer than one year in a James S&T Cleveland would garner enough cap space (potentially 35 milion or so) in hand by next summer to be a major player in free agency if they can clear Jamsion's salary off the books.

Whether putting AJ into the deal leaves you with guards or not sort of depends on who you're sending out, and in that respect I'll admit I'm being selfish here, in that my primary motivation is to think of any way that Dallas could manage to land Lebron without giving up Booby (i.e., of other ways of helping the Cavs out). Even if Booby has to go, though, it still comes down to this. I'd rather roll the dice on a massive starting lineup of Kidd/Lebron/Marion/Dirk/Haywood with JET and Jamison as my primaries off the bench than I would on a team that relies exclusively on a defensively suspect trio of point-guard sized shooting guards for backcourt and bench scoring.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by badfish22

I was doing my best to just ignore the possibility of getting LeBron because it would be too much heartbreak if I got my hopes up, BUT GODDAMN THAT PICTURE IS SWEET.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Windmill360

Can we even afford to sign Lebron without including another big contract with damp?

Butler and Stevenson if the Cavs decide to go for further playoffs with all that bad contracts they have. Or if they think they can re-trade Butler to other teams.

i would prefer Roddy to stay over Butler.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by mkat

i wouldn't say he's difficult to coach...it's just that HE's the coach. you can tell he doesn't listen to mike brown, and i think that might be kinda why the cavs turn into a "hey let's watch lebron" team.

Let me ask you this; do you think he SHOULD listen to Mike Brown more than he supposedly does? Do you think Mike Brown has the answers and the Cavs haven't won a championship yet because Lebron doesn't listen to him?

I certainly don't. Mike Brown seems to have no other approach than "hey let's watch lebron."

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by SeriousSummer

If I was Cleveland, I would want to do: Damp, Beaubois, Barea, Butler and Stevenson and two No. 1s about three and five years out, for James, Mo Williams and Daniel Gibson.

That leaves you with something to build around and some future. If Beaubois develops well enough, then maybe all the cap room would let you bring in a talented free agent. If not, you've got draft picks after the Mavs begin to go downhill.

Giving up Beaubois should close the books, no way we should take on that much salary if we give them Beaubois and a pair of first rounders.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I'm glad somebody finally mentioned this:


How many other teams in the WEST stand a realistic shot at landing LeBron?

All the front-runners seem to hail from the Eastern Conference...

With Houston rumored to be on Bosh, there isn't any team out there with a realistic shot. I read Portland and Lakers if there's any thing less than a ship. Portland has no media, but they do have Nike headquarters and no state tax.....again no major metropolitan any where close, should rule them out. We have to go hard core after him, Dirk and Cuban must hammer out a long term deal now, then Kidd, Dirk, Cuban, Nelson must head out and meet with LBJ's team at the first opportunity.....just like how PHX got to Nash.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

I'm sure contract length matters to the Cavs, especially if they lose James, but 8.5-9 million per year for a couple years for a true starting caliber point guard (I'm anticipating here that Mo opts out of the last year on his current deal) and another 4-4.5 million per year for three years for a 24 year old combo guard with hellaciously good range isn't something that any team is likely to balk at. As long as they don't take back anybody on a deal longer than one year in a James S&T Cleveland would garner enough cap space (potentially 35 milion or so) in hand by next summer to be a major player in free agency if they can clear Jamsion's salary off the books.

Whether putting AJ into the deal leaves you with guards or not sort of depends on who you're sending out, and in that respect I'll admit I'm being selfish here, in that my primary motivation is to think of any way that Dallas could manage to land Lebron without giving up Booby (i.e., of other ways of helping the Cavs out). Even if Booby has to go, though, it still comes down to this. I'd rather roll the dice on a massive starting lineup of Kidd/Lebron/Marion/Dirk/Haywood with JET and Jamison as my primaries off the bench than I would on a team that relies exclusively on a defensively suspect trio of point-guard sized shooting guards for backcourt and bench scoring.

I think Lebron's best position is being a playmaker, Marion does not need the rock in his hands to be at his best, with Lebron and Kidd's vision, they would be vying for the team lead in assists.

[Thespiralgoeson]

If the Mavs got Lebron (and I'm almost positive they won't), Kidd would be not much more than a spot-up shooter in our offense.

[Windmill360]

Is that because Lebron doesn't have a point guard of Kidds calibur on the Cavs or because Kidd want's to be a spot up shooter?

[SMC0007]

Kidds caliber... thats good stuff.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by Windmill360

Is that because Lebron doesn't have a point guard of Kidds calibur on the Cavs or because Kidd want's to be a spot up shooter?

What I mean is, Lebron is and will always be the primary ball-handler on any team he plays for. He needs teammates to play off of him, not the other way around.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

What I mean is, Lebron is and will always be the primary ball-handler on any team he plays for. He needs teammates to play off of him, not the other way around.

Thus he should be a point guard regardless. Get a pair of finishing wing men at the 2 and 3. Cavs were set up to fail. I mean take advantage of your size, LBJ at the point, 6-4 or 6-5 at the 2 guard 6-7 or 6-8 at the 3 spot. It'll be the Magic Johnson show time Lakers all over again. Instead the Cavs put him at the 3, getting a scoring point, who also needs the rock to create, if you put a finisher at the 2 and 3, the ball would have to be in LBJ's hands to create scoring opportunities, instead, you have a 6-1 guy finishing.....

[BGMaverick9]

http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=3040

[wilmtalk]

Originally Posted by Windmill360

Is that because Lebron doesn't have a point guard of Kidds calibur on the Cavs or because Kidd want's to be a spot up shooter?

At present Kidd is a spot up shooter with court vision and passing skills. He doesn't really possess point guard skills anymore.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=3040

Great article by DLord - this bit in particular stood out:

What’s gone unnoticed is this: the pairing of Butler and Roddy B by themselves actually can do what “The DUST Chip’’ does - it almost trade-matches Sammy's max salary. So if the Mavs are already on the edge of matching Sammy with just Butler and Roddy alone, why include DUST and match Sammy a second time? Adding DUST at that point makes it an almost wasted asset.

Technically speaking, we could trade Butler/Roddy for LeBron (or another max-FA) then flip the DUST Chip for someone like Bosh (or another max-FA)... Technically speaking.

Throw Dirk/Kidd into the mix and Dallas becomes a MUCH sexier destination than anywhere else.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by wilmtalk

At present Kidd is a spot up shooter with court vision and passing skills. He doesn't really possess point guard skills anymore.

Im pretty sure James as showact gonna look for backdoor cuts e.g. all the time, several "Kidd to Roddy" baskets every game.

Same with the fastbreaks...