Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[chumdawg]

As you know, there is still a lot of water to pass under the bridge. I am not backing away from my rather bold prediction that Obama will carry our great state.

But no, no one is "SUPPOSED TO WIN!!!". I don't know where you got that idea.

One could also chuckle at the apparent fact that McCain supporters find great glee in just being even in the polls. Even don't win, brutha. As you know, of course...

As I said, there's a lot of water yet to pass under the bridge. It's a good ol' fashioned horse race. Either side could make a misstep and lose. Either side could find a stroke of genius and win. Or, it may come right down to the last votes cast.

It's a very, very intriguing election, and one that I'm sure will be studied for generations to come. The one thing I wouldn't characterize it as is "funny."

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

Much like you can "only play the games on your schedule" you can only comment on the polls thus far.

And so, it's still funny that the human bull-horn Barry Hussein has lost huge leads to a 97 year old corpse.

There is only one poll that counts.

One would think that watching this election season would have taught us all that. Clinton was hoping to lose by only single digits in NH, and she actually won. If there is one lesson from this campaign season, it's that the polls don't mean all that much.

[wmbwinn]

It's a very, very intriguing election, and one that I'm sure will be studied for generations to come. The one thing I wouldn't characterize it as is "funny." -Chumdawg


Ok, will you accept the word 'fascinating' or even 'consuming'?

Funny to me was not so much about hilarity as it is the image of a smile coming across my face due to the unexpected shifts and strategy plays. Fascinating or consuming would be more accurate.

[wmbwinn]

By my math, the electoral college vote had shifted to 271 Obama to 263 McCain.

Rasmussen today is indicating I was close...

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest wave of state-by-state polling, market data and national trends have pushed the Rasmussen Reports' Electoral College projections as close as our daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The latest numbers from the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.

Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes -- Colorado, Nevada and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

The biggest changes came in Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado and Oregon.

Ohio—with 20 Electoral College votes--moved from Toss-up to Leans Republican following the second straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey that showed McCain with a modest lead over Obama.

North Carolina—with 15 Electoral College votes—moved from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. This change was based on the latest Rasmussen Reports polling and changes in the RasmussenMarkets.com data.

Wisconsin—with 10 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. That move was prompted by the latest Rasmussen Reports polling which shows McCain closing to within four percentage points of Obama.

Colorado—with 9 Electoral College votes--moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, based primarily upon the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in which McCain holds a statistically insignificant two-point lead over Obama.

Oregon—with 7 Electoral College votes—moved from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. While the latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Obama with a 10-point lead, the average of other polls and a national trends adjustment places the state in the leaner category.

South Dakota—with 3 Electoral College votes--shifted from Leans Republican to Likely Republican based upon Rasmussen Markets data and a national trends adjustment.

Other states had more minor changes: Connecticut from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, Louisiana from Likely Republican to Safely Republican, Maine from Safely Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Tennessee from Likely Republican to Safely Republican.

This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms (the “538 Average”), Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history and national trends.

As a practical matter, all of the state-by-state changes are driven by the changes seen nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. In early and mid-June, Obama consistently enjoyed a lead in the five-percentage point range. That has disappeared, with the two contenders now generally within a point or two of each other. The state polls are not conducted as frequently but typically follow the national trend.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If you look at the states that Rasmussen didn't count (the leaners and toss ups), then McCain gets another 78 votes and Obama gets another 84 votes, so Obama is up 16 points over all. That math goes with giving McCain Colorado where he is up 2% points and Nevada (also up 2% points) and Obama is given Virginia where he is up 1% point.

Anyway, close race now.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

As you know, there is still a lot of water to pass under the bridge. I am not backing away from my rather bold prediction that Obama will carry our great state.

It was bold allright. But so is a lottery ticket.

[wmbwinn]

Despite Biden’s presence, Bill Clinton will be the feature story on Wednesday night and he is currently viewed favorably by 84% of Democrats. That’s two points higher than Obama’s total. However, Clinton is viewed Very Favorably by just 46% of Democrats while 62% are that enthusiastic about Obama. One factor may be that just 52% of Democrats believe Bill Clinton wants Barack Obama to win the White House in November. Similar skepticism was expressed about Hillary Clinton before her well-received speech last night.

Other speakers in Denver tonight include New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. Richardson is viewed favorably by 49% of Democrats nationwide and unfavorably by 25%. Bayh’s numbers are 45% favorable and 25% unfavorable.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[Janett_Reno]

dude, it is interesting and check out this map.

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

It is weird seeing Obama winning the president not taking FL or Oh. It is close and even alot of those swing states are close but what would hurt McCain is if Obama did win a FL or OH. I am giving McCain most all the swing states that are close except Co. I know he could win there but look at how many are close and it will be harder for McCain to win because the way he must do it comparred of the ways Obama can. This is why i felt he needed Romney to win Mi. He also has a shot in NH but look how close Obama is on alot of swing states we are giving McCain.

It will be along hard fought battle in the next two months and i must say this was a bold move picking the fem gov from Alaska and i still feel it was an all out move to pick up Hillary supporters.

Co and Va could probably go either way and so could NH and NV. What could be interesting if McCain holds some of the bigger swing states like OH and FL and then more as you see on the map, a small state could be key for either winning. I like how Obama has himself set up.

[chumdawg]

I think Colorado is going red this year.

It blows the mind to think that if New Hampshire had voted for Gore in 2000, Florida would have been moot.

[wmbwinn]

Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 56%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update. is available.

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.

There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement (see trends and other recent demographic observations).

Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[dude1394]

So theMessiah got a 3point bump from his convention...tsk..tsk..

[Janett_Reno]

That is true chum or even TN. Our country would have been in much better shape. It is very interesting if you look at the maps on how Obama is trying to win opposed to how democrats have won in the past. The polls change daily it seems but i noticed today McCain is up 1 point in CO and Obama is up 1 point in FL. McCain can not lose FL or OH or it will be hard for him to win as where Obama can lose both of those and win but Obama can't lose to many Co, NH, and he especially can't lose PA or Mi. I think with the Biden pick PA is safe now(i hope). I'll send you a few maps to look at and i must say it is a very interesting race on how they can win with the maps.

The first map i am showing you leans republican.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

This site leans democratic and here is it's map

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

If you notice up in the north McCain had a shot at mi, mn, ia and maybe pa with Romney. That is where i thought McCain could have tried winning but they have gone for the women vote. Hillary people and can they get them? They also feel Palin helps in Mt, Nv, nm, co and some of the western states. Now i feel it would have been over with Hillary because she picks up PA and Oh. Biden very well can also. If Obama had picked Hillary then Rove would have chose Romney and possibly Palenty. To battle these same northen states and oh. It is an interesting process.

Polls today but remember these change ever few days and especially on the close states.

COLORADO (CNN/Time): McCain - 47%, Obama - 46%.
FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
NEVADA (CNN/Time): Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%.
NEW MEXICO (CNN/Time): Obama - 53%, McCain - 40%.
PENNSYLVANIA (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%

I find it interesting that republicans are moving in Pa and the republican party has encouraged this and made that a mission since when Bush won to try to break up the north east and get in the dems playhouse and they chose Pa. I am surprised McCain is this close in Pa and it would hurt if McCain won here or Mich. On the other hand, who would have thought dems would pour into Tx and no i doubt Obama can win in Tx and some say he does have a shot but i am surprised that Tx has turned bluer and it won't take alot more to start making it a race in tx as the reps are doing in pa. Va was always red and changing to a blue state. Montana and Co is surprising.

MO is important and McCain has that now but McCain can not lose FL or OH and if he does he has to upset everyone and win PA.

Here is Yahoo's map on each state.

http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard

To finish up on, i think both the dems and reps will get most of the base to come out and vote. Watch for new voters and the "unlikely" and i feel they will go for Obama in big numbers and this is the dems ace in the hole on Rove this year. Rove has been good at electorial vote and this was how Obama beat Hillary. Sort of like how it was with Gore/Bush. So the electorial will be a chess match and it could very well turn into a few small states on ho wins unless Obama breaks thru and picks up a state or states like OH and FL. McCain could not overcome these. As long as Obama holds those northern states and the ones Romney would have helped with, Obama has many more moves he can make to win than McCain.

[Janett_Reno]

Dude, McCain must have a good lead in the polls at the end to beat Obama to over come the word "unlikely voters". Also remember this, in polls it shows where congress is liked by like 12% or so and in the polling who would you like to win or vote for in congress dem or rep, the polls show dems. Now this tells me that either it is a rejection vote to George W Bush and Cheney or either the voters want dems in office.

How many rejection votes will be cast in this election because of people upset at this adm? Will young people really come out and rock the vote this time? I feel the latino vote will be important and something that is not talked about. The reps are going to try to win with we picked a conservative woman and to try to get the conservative base vote and then Hillary women, will it work?

I am not sure who in here said it and maybe it was chum, but if McCain beats Obama it will be very close. It is Obamas to lose. It could very well be a bigger victory and spread for Obama if all these new people vote and if he can just win one of OH or FL. Just one. If one of those fall dude, he has a shot at beating McCain big. The chips must fall just right for a McCain win.

[Janett_Reno]

Palin Pick Leaves Bruised Feelings

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the...ised_feel.html

Though it was high in shock value, the Palin pick left bruised feelings among the short-list contenders who were not picked -- and infuriated some Republican officials who privately said McCain had gone out on a limb, unnecessarily, without laying the groundwork for such an unknown. Two senior Republican officials close to Mitt Romney and Tim
Pawlenty said they had both been rudely strung along and now "feel manipulated."

"They now know that they were used as decoys, well after McCain had decided not to pick them," one Republican involved in the process said.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Now this is Janett speaking, here again like Lugar, John Warner, Hagel, Colin Powell, if Palenty and Romney don't smile and go along with what Rove wants, then guess what, they are kicked to the curb like McCain was going to be if he did not kiss butt with Chains and W Bush. You rock the boat with Rove and the boys, then you are kicked to the curb. Romney and Palenty are good people and it is ashame to use them as sitting ducks, plus either would have been much better than Palin.

[dude1394]

Rove, Chains, Halliburton, Janett...

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Dude, McCain must have a good lead in the polls at the end to beat Obama to over come the word "unlikely voters". Also remember this, in polls it shows where congress is liked by like 12% or so and in the polling who would you like to win or vote for in congress dem or rep, the polls show dems. Now this tells me that either it is a rejection vote to George W Bush and Cheney or either the voters want dems in office.

Again...don't pick your polls before they are hatched. That 12% congressional ranking is not because of dubya..budda'.

How many rejection votes will be cast in this election because of people upset at this adm?

Don't know...nor do you. I would say after the Palin pick (assuming it holds up) there will be quite a few energized reps around that wouldn't have been before.

Will young people really come out and rock the vote this time?

Doubt it. Iraq is over, we won it. Only the lunatics are still flaming that one...is it still hot for ya?

I feel the latino vote will be important and something that is not talked about. The reps are going to try to win with we picked a conservative woman and to try to get the conservative base vote and then Hillary women, will it work?

Sure the latino vote will be important, always is. Guess what, most are religiouns anti-abortion types. Hmm...From pew poll BP.
"One way McCain could improve his numbers among Hispanics is by emphasizing his pro-life views on abortion.

While a majority of Americans take a pro-life view on abortion, polls show Hispanics do so at a higher rate.

A September Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute poll found incoming Hispanics don't have attachments to the Democratic Party and are pro-life on abortion."

I am not sure who in here said it and maybe it was chum, but if McCain beats Obama it will be very close. It is Obamas to lose. It could very well be a bigger victory and spread for Obama if all these new people vote and if he can just win one of OH or FL. Just one. If one of those fall dude, he has a shot at beating McCain big. The chips must fall just right for a McCain win.

Well duh...If he doesn't win it will be a failure of epic porportions, right up there with ALGore, Kerry and then theOne.

[wmbwinn]

COLORADO (CNN/Time): McCain - 47%, Obama - 46%.
FLORIDA (Mason-Dixon): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
NEVADA (CNN/Time): Obama - 49%, McCain - 44%.
NEW MEXICO (CNN/Time): Obama - 53%, McCain - 40%.
PENNSYLVANIA (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%


The above came from Janet and notes some recent state polls. I prefer the accuracy in the every day polling of Rasmusens. Rasmusens uses a 3 day average. Each day, the current day is 1/3 of the reported average determination.
Now, Rasmusens does not run state polls each day. So, the state by state countdown is not updated daily.

The latest Rasmusen poll for Colorado was Aug. 14:
"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%. " so, the CNN poll above looks the same now, over two weeks later. It would appear that the two conventions have not changed anything in Colorado.

The latest Rasmusen poll for Florida was Aug. 19:
"Tuesday, August 19, 2008 Email to a Friend
John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error."

If the above Mason-Dixon poll is accurate, then the conventions may have favored Obama with about a 2% improvement. I'm sure Florida is within the margin of error with the various polls at this time. Hope the Supreme Court doesn't settle Florida again...

The last Florida poll was Aug. 13:
"Wednesday, August 13, 2008 Email to a Friend
The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.

This is the third straight month to find Obama’s support at the 42% level. Two months ago, McCain was at 45%, but his support slipped to 40% in July.

When “leaners” are included in the current Nevada totals, McCain is on top 48% to 45%. "

If the CNN poll is accurate, then Nevada really liked the Dem Convention or doesn't like Sarah Palin.

New Mexico is a run away victory for Obama. Nothing is likely to change that. All polls show New Mexico squarely in the Obama camp.

Pennsylvania's latest Rasmusen poll was Aug. 21:
"Thursday, August 21, 2008 Email to a Friend
Barack Obama leads John McCain by five percentage points in Pennsylvania for the second month in a row. Both candidates have lost some support from a month ago, with the Democrat now favored by 45% while his Republican opponent earns the vote from 40%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead is down to just three points, 48% to 45%. A month ago, Obama led by six when leaners were included.

The data in Pennsylvania reflects patterns seen elsewhere in recent polling. McCain has more support from Republicans than Obama does from Democrats, and McCain also wins more crossover votes from the other party. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters. "

The current CNN poll mirrors the week old Rasmusen poll suggesting that the conventions made no difference in Pennsylvania.

_____________

Anyway, McCain can't lose Colorado and Florida. He can't lose either one of them.

[Janett_Reno]

PA is very important for the dems and one of the most important. OH and FL is for McCain. He loses either one of those it will be very hard for him to win as where Obama can still win if McCain wins both of those. Palin could have locked CO, NV and MT and AK but not sure on all those as where i feel Biden picks up PA for Obama and i feel maybe even NH. Biden also puts OH into play.

Should be a good one and i am sure ready and waiting. Keep those polls comming and McCain has come on recently and doing much better. Palin should knock him down a notch or two. Not at convention time but after convention.

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

PA is very important for the dems and one of the most important. OH and FL is for McCain. He loses either one of those it will be very hard for him to win as where Obama can still win if McCain wins both of those. Palin could have locked CO, NV and MT and AK but not sure on all those as where i feel Biden picks up PA for Obama and i feel maybe even NH. Biden also puts OH into play.

Should be a good one and i am sure ready and waiting. Keep those polls comming and McCain has come on recently and doing much better. Palin should knock him down a notch or two. Not at convention time but after convention.

I don't really think biden puts anything into play to be honest. He's pretty much a spent force imo. He's run for president numerous times and been pretty much a failure ever since. If he does well in the debates he'll help, other than that..not much.

[dude1394]

ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains dead even.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical dead heat.

Ding Dong the bounce is dead
Which old bounce
Obama's bounce.
Ding Dong obama's bounce is dead..

It's gone where the goblins go.
Below, Below, Below, Below, Below, Below, Below, Below, Below, Below

Ding Dong the bounce is dead
Which old Bounce
Messiah's bounce
Ding Dong obma's bound is dead!!

[chumdawg]

If there's one thing this election has taught us--or should have taught us, as the case may be--it's that the traditional polling methodology is not keeping pace with present reality.

This isn't to say that Obama has the better of it if this is true, but it probably is the case.

The growing Latino bloc is certainly something to be considered, but it's still pretty safe to say that Latinos vote Democrat much more often than they vote Republican. In fact, one of Bush's biggest achievements in the last two elections is how well he was able to do with Latinos. He still lost, of course, but he didn't lose as badly as he might have.

The point is, Latinos aren't going to vote for McCain in majority (according to all conventional wisdom). And they are underrepresented in the polls.

I think the McCain camp, and most everyone else, knows that if he's polling even it really means that he is behind. The most accurate data you can go on is how the polls performed in this year's primaries--which is to say, not well.

[purplefrog]

I wonder if the Dems are still basking in the "encouraging" victories by Obama over Clinton in Georgia, South Carolina, Idaho, and Alaska. Maybe they should have been thinking of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. I tell you, the Dems know how to screw up a one car funeral. My prediction is that McCain/Palin win by a comfortable margin. I still believe that Hillary is/was the stronger candidate.

[GuerillaBlack]

USA Today/Gallup now has Obama up 50-43, for what it's worth.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...l-monday_N.htm

CBS has Obama 48-40.

[Usually Lurkin]

well, cnn is +1, and Rasmussen is +3, and Zogby had McCain in the lead. So I don't think polls are worth too much right now.

[Kirobaito]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

well, cnn is +1, and Rasmussen is +3, and Zogby had McCain in the lead. So I don't think polls are worth too much right now.

I don't think polls are ever worth a whole lot. For one, young folks (more a factor in this campaign than any one since '68) are badly underrepresented, as are a number of other demographics.

As for this specific point in time, they're even less so, because we've had one convention but not the other. I'd say wait until the first debate, at the minimum. I think dude referenced one poll that was McCain 49, Obama 48, but heck - do you think only 3% of people are undecided at this point? We may be decided, but a good amount of the electorate doesn't care as much as we do, even though they obviously should be.

[Janett_Reno]

Here are the polls i see today and one GuerillaBack reported on.

1. Gallup 50-43 Obama
2. CBS 48-40 Obama
3. Rasmussen 47-44 Obama

Kirobaito is right also that the reps need to have their convention and they should have a jump and then when we start seeing the debates, this is when i feel the polls will start being important. I must admit i do like looking at them and keeping up with them regardless. One good thing dude reported on if you are for McCain, is he raised 47 million this month and this is by far the highest amount he has raised yet. Obama has not released his of yet. McCain's best had been in July and was 27 million.

I just noticed another poll tracker out. Sept 2.

1. 49-43 Obama ARG
2. 50-42 Obama Gallup
3. 51-45 Obama Rasmussen
4. 48-39 Obama Hotline/Diageo

One thing i find funny is McCain's camp is saying sexism defending Palin. I think maybe Rove needs to beg Hillary & Bill what to say and do. I feel Obama has been very good defending Palin on being woman and her defending her family about her 17 year old un wed daughter being pregnant. All this is personal decisions in ones life no matter if it is a dem or rep.

I feel alot of likely senior voters will vote for McCain and i might be wrong but i feel senior men and women will vote McCain in the majority. The unlikely and more minorities and i am not just speaking African American but many other minorities i feel will be an "unlikely" vote like we have never seen before in Obama. Young people in record numbers is another "unlikely" that i feel is not in the polls and radar screen now that will vote(Obama). I could be totally wrong and the young people might decide not to get out and vote but ever indication i am seeing is they will. Those unlikely's could hurt McCain and the polls. Let's not forget, states that have mainly white people in the state are going Obama, many are. Iowa is one that comes to mind but it is others. I do not see this race as racial and it white against black or woman against man. I see it as change vs the last 8 years and who can defend the country best and take care of us, helping to fix the economy, get us off big oil, cut out the big republican spending that they want to keep putting us in debt more and more, taxes, infrastructure, education, jobs and healthcare.

Some feel McCain can do it best and some feel Obama can. McCain/Palin should get a jump comming out of their convention as well.

Politico map.

http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html

[Janett_Reno]

This is the lead Palin needs to cut into tonight. The first night i would call borring. Guess who the most excitting person was? George W Bush. Fred Thompson looks like the caveman commercial and he needs to pause and take a breath when he is "trying" to give a speech. I was very unimpressed by Thompson.

Liberman, this has got to be the most borring man on the planet. No emotion and everything scripted. Alot like McCain and actually i feel it is three guys just alike and i can't tell the difference in them, McCain, Liberman and Rudy. Why in the world did Gore pick a Liberman? Please Democrats, let this man go to another party as he is one of the most borring people i have ever had to sit thru and listen to. He was no differ when he was with Gore and he is no differ now with McCain. Here would be a debate of Liberman and Fred. Please now Mr Fred, don't yell at me and make those ugly faces because it scares me when you talk to me that way. Well Joe, speak up a little because i can't hear you and i am falling asleep again trying to debate you. So in the end, Bush was the best speaker they had last night and Bush was never known for his speaking abilities. Let's hope it gets better tonight and not so borring.

ARG 49% 43% Obama +6%
CBS 48% 40% Obama +8%
Gallup 50% 43% Obama +7%
Gallup tracking 50% 42% Obama +8%
Hotline 48% 39% Obama +9%
Rasmussen tracking 48% 43% Obama +5%

[Janett_Reno]

Dude use your own brain and don't use Fox or Rove and look at this map. Let's be realistic.

http://www.pollster.com/

I'll explain how this works. The blue and light blue are counted for Obama and this makes him 260 electorial votes. It takes 270 to win. Now most likely and all blue state or all red state won't be swayed or turned. So let's look at leaners that Pollster is giving each person.

1.NM-48-41
2.Or-49-42
3.Mi-46-41

Can the republicans take any of these away? At the moment, i would also count PA a leaner and not solid blue, so i disagree with them giving PA to Obama strong blue.

McCain has 176 electorial votes with strong and leaners counted. Here is his leaners and can Obama possibly win any of these?

1.Az-46-40
2.Sd-45-39
3.Mo-48-44
4.Ar-47-40
5.In-50-44
6.Ga-50-44
7.SC-47-39

Let's say McCain and Obama win all the leaners and this is 7 leaners Mac has to protect as Obama has to protect 3 leaners. Now go look at all yellow states, these are swing states and i will have to say Ak is painted red now. If Mac wins every single yellow state he is at 278 and beats Obama with a scorre of 278 to 260. Now can you see the up hill battle and this isn't going to be an easy task to say Obama will not win one swing state. 10 electorial votes puts him over. Now can you see the race is over if Mac doesn't win Oh and Fl? It can be done for Mac but it won't be easy.

More polls just out.

Ia-55-40 Obama and one of your republican buddies in here mentioned with the pick of Palin, Mac pulls out Ia. I am not so sure about that and i put my odds on Obama in Ia.

Mn-53-41 Obama

Oh-47-45 Obama and with Barr, Nader and others then this lead drops to Obama up one point.

Let me hear your point of view on how Mac wins this election. Let me hear states you feel Mac will take from Obama and make them red and i guess you feel Obama will lose ever single one of the yellow states and also Mac holds on to all pink leaner states and he wins by 13 electorials? Let's all remember like Hillary and Gore, popular doesn't mean you win. It is electorial. Put your mouse on each state and you can see how many ev's each state has and who is up.

I feel NH goes blue and that is only 4. I also feel he will pick up OH and that is 20. Other states i feel Omama will challenge in is Mo, Va, Nv, Co and Mt. Maybe nc and in. I see Mac working hard for Pa and Mi but he blew it without Roms in Mi. Biden, i also feel secured Pa.

Maybe after this borring convention the gop is having, they will get a lil jump up in the polls and some of the eaner states but not sure. They should get some kind of bump up. What are you seeing on this map that my eyes can't see? Remember also dude, what states come in first. I can spell them out to you if you like. Those states will come in at a 90% win rate for Obama and something i do not believe in but most seem to, is "i want to vote for the winner". We should all vote for whom we like and think will be best and not a yes man and for the winner. It is going to be alot of blue on the first and what if folks go out later in the other states and say i want to vote for the winner also. The first hour or two will be alot of blue, followed by an hour or two of alot of red, followed at the end with blue in far west for Obama and maybe at the end of the night, lawyers trying to figure out who won FL and OH.

[Flacolaco]

51% Say Reporters Are Trying To Hurt Palin; 39% Say She Has Better Experience Than Obama

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...nce_than_obama

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Over half of U.S. voters (51%) think reporters are trying to hurt Sarah Palin with their news coverage, and 24% say those stories make them more likely to vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain in November.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) also believe the GOP vice presidential nominee has better experience to be president of the United States than Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

But 49% give Obama the edge on experience, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey – taken before Palin’s historic speech Wednesday night to the Republican National Convention.

While Republicans and Democrats predictably favor their party’s candidate by overwhelming margins, the experience gap among voters unaffiliated with either party is even narrower than the national totals. Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama has better experience to be president, but 37% say Palin does.

The potential problem for Democrats is that Obama, the junior U.S. senator from Illinois and a former state legislator, is the party’s standard-bearer, while Palin, an ex-mayor and now governor of Alaska, is number two on her party’s ticket.

Palin’s highly successful debut on the national stage Wednesday night at the GOP convention is sure to impact these numbers, too. Her speech repeatedly highlighted her experience versus Obama’s, something she is expected to focus on from now until Election Day.
.
.
.

[Janett_Reno]

The same was said they was trying to hurt Hillary. When you get in the game, no matter if you are white, black, of faith or no faith, male or female you got to take the heat. Just because she is female won't stop the questions. It didn't with Hillary and it won't with Palin. You don't get a free pass because you are female. Remember she knows how to skin a mosse just like the guys know how to.

What matters in the end is who gets 270 electorial votes. Keep a watch on the maps.

[Janett_Reno]

One cbs poll is encouraging for reps today shows the race tied again.

[Flacolaco]

http://www.associatedcontent.com/art...as_mccain.html

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll will be scrutinized more than ever with the Democratic and Republican national conventions over. Barack Obama has his bump from the Democratic convention, and now John McCain seeks his at the end of the Republican convention. The Rasmussen daily tracking poll gave Obama an 8-point bounce after his acceptance speech. Now after McCain's speech and Sarah Palin's week-long ride, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll seems to give McCain the bounce he needed to break back even. If the Rasmussen poll can be believed at this early stage, we're right back where we started with a dead-even campaign.

The early Rasmussen daily tracking poll numbers for Friday shows McCain back up with 45% of the vote. Obama still leads, but it's with 46%. When voters leaning for one candidate or another are included in the Rasmussen poll, Obama still leads by 48-46%, only two percentage points. With the candidates getting about an equal bounce from their conventions and speeches, McCain and Obama are still as close as they ever were.

[Janett_Reno]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

We have three new presidential polls today, two of them surprising. In North Dakota, Barack Obama has a small lead over John Mcain, 43% to 40%. This is within the margin of error, so it is a statistical tie. This is a state George Bush won by 27 points in 2004 and 28 points in 2000. It is not supposed to be a tie. It is supposed to be a rout for any Republican. It bears watching. If Obama actually campaigns here at the very least it will force McCain devote some money and energy to a state he should win on autopilot.

The same is true of Indiana. Here McCain is ahead 45% to 43%, again a tie. Bush won Indiana by 21 points in 2004 and by 16 in 2000. Shouldn't even be on the radar, but it is and has 11 electoral votes. It is hard to tell what's going on in North Dakota (except maybe the people who like small government--except for farm subsidies--are disappointed in the current administration). Indiana is a bit different. The northeastern part of the state is a bit like Ohio, which is a swing state and the northwestern part is close to Obama's base of Chicago and gets Chicago TV stations. With Palin on the ticket, Alaska is off the table and the Republicans will pick up its 3 EVs as usual.

Alaska poll out today and McCain has a huge lead now in Alaska.

Pres '08
Sep 5 Gallup Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 44%

Pres '08
Sep 5 Rasmussen
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 46%

[GuerillaBlack]

I am comparing the EV map from 2004 on this date and today:

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:

Kerry: 247
Bush: 275


Obama: 301
McCain: 224
Ties: 13


The polls in this election are much more consistent than in 2004. McCain never holds a lead over Obama in the electoral map, and on Gallup, McCain never goes above 45% and Obama never below 45%.

[u2sarajevo]

We don't need polls to tell us it's going to be a rout.

[mary]

Texas and Arizona are pink?

[jefelump]

Originally Posted by mary

Texas and Arizona are pink?

Yea, that makes no sense to me either.

[Flacolaco]

Pretty hard to believe it's still this close.

(That web site those graphics and Janetts post are from appear to be run by an opinionated individual, btw)

[mary]

I agree that site doesn't even look legit to me...at the very least its biased.

The Rasmussen numbers "seem" more correct to me but who knows....they could be biased as well.

[dude1394]

Realclearpolitics is usually pretty accurate. They use averages of different poll numbers to call it. Janett you can have some fun and turn all of the states blue also.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

They have Obama 238, Mac08 174 with no toss-ups.

With toss-ups it's 273-265 Obama.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by mary

I agree that site doesn't even look legit to me...at the very least its biased.

The Rasmussen numbers "seem" more correct to me but who knows....they could be biased as well.

Which site? The one I posted? It's plenty legit: www.electoral-vote.com.