To Melo or not to Melo

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Spurs are your entire argument?

One team?
One team who haven't won a championship for 7 years before this year? A team who since 2008 have won as many championships as we have?
One team who won in 2007 with three stars? (Duncan, Ginobli, Parker) and before that they also won with three stars as well (Robinson, Duncan, Parker)?
One team who have miraculously been successful despite being known for breaking every rule of GMing?

I love the Spurs and I love how they can draft well (we need to do better, keep a good coach (I hope to keep Carlisle), and sign stars for cheap (something we may never do, because we don't have the prestige), but they are the exception, not the rule.

So my question for you is: if we can't draft like we have an honest-to-god psychic working for us and we can't talk players into signing for half the money they'd get elsewhere, then how DO we improve? That seems to be the real question, because I don't see us turning into the Spurs. If we just offer every free agent 50% of what their people want, we are going to lose out on a LOT of players and our reputation as a winning franchise will be even more buried in the annals of history. "we won back in 2011," probably won't attract many stars to Dallas in 2017 when Dirk is retired and we have Ellis playing pre-Dirk, pre-Nash Finley and we're winning at a .300 pace.

I respect a lot of what you write on here, but I feel like argument here is abit misguided.

All of your questions are rhetorical and all together pointless. They seem to actually argue against themselves. Your first question seems to question the actual success of the Spurs, but then later on you go on to admit to their success but deem it "the exception not rule". I am going to answer your questions ( or points) and maybe we can go from there.

"One team?" I would argue the Mavericks are not a bad "other" team to include. We have not groomed our talent like the Spurs, but we have had a REMARKABLE run with Dirk, mostly with him as our only bona fide SUPER star.

One team who haven't won a championship for 7 years before this year? A team who since 2008 have won as many championships as we have?
I mean is this a real point? They have been in the playoffs every single year, and in the years you are referencing they made the NBA FINALS once, Western Conference finals twice, semis once, and exited in the 1st round twice.

"One team who won in 2007 with three stars? (Duncan, Ginobli, Parker) and before that they also won with three stars as well (Robinson, Duncan, Parker)?" The difference in the Spurs star model and the Celtics, Heat, and others are that they groomed their talent. This is not recruited talent that they paid max contract dollars for out of the gate which is a significant difference. They groomed these players to fit their organization and you could argue aside from injury had LITTLE to NO risk when paying out max money to these players. That knew both their character and skill set fit their team. Giving a player 15+ million a year who has grown up in your organization is much different than giving it to someone who has a history of questionable situations.

"One team who have miraculously been successful despite being known for breaking every rule of GMing?" I guess this question has me miffed. I don't claim to know everything about NBA team management so maybe you could better illustrate this point. To me they sell high on talent they do not necessarily NEED, and then buy low on players who are on the way down with other teams. I would say this is something that the Mavs have had more success than failure over the years doing. The part where the Spurs seem to separate themselves is on the coaching up young talent side. They seem to do very well getting value out of scouting department, and maximizing young players talents early in their career.

And to your final question:

"So my question for you is: if we can't draft like we have an honest-to-god psychic working for us and we can't talk players into signing for half the money they'd get elsewhere, then how DO we improve?" As far as drafting players, who says you necessarily need a "psychic" to obtain top level players in this league. I would argue that the Spurs success with young players is less "honest-to-god psychic" abilities, and more to do with their incredible coach who knows how to properly groom such talent. Look at Leonard's growth..... as Tim Duncan said after game 5... the growth of Leonard since he first showed up is remarkable. This is where your organization and coaching give you the biggest leg up in competition. You setup a winning culture that prioritizes character and team > everything else, then you TEACH your players how to maximize their individual tool set while working within the system you have in place. Sure... do you need 1-2 supremely talented players in today's NBA? Of course. But does that mean you need to obtain these players by simply taking whichever one is on the market in a particular year and investing your next 5-6 years in that person? I would say no.

The questions being posed about Carmelo are fair. He has a history of bad situations that seem to have plagued his entire career. He has historically been more of a stat guy than actual achiever. His personality does not necessarily put off a vibe of EXTREME competitiveness with a willingness to do anything to win. He is not known for being a gym rat. Is this solely his fault or should the majority of the blame go to his teams? That's something that has yet to be determined. But I think its fair to question how he would "fit" on our team.. not just for this year but for the next 5 years.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Spurs are your entire argument?

One team?
One team who haven't won a championship for 7 years before this year? A team who since 2008 have won as many championships as we have?
One team who won in 2007 with three stars? (Duncan, Ginobli, Parker) and before that they also won with three stars as well (Robinson, Duncan, Parker)?
One team who have miraculously been successful despite being known for breaking every rule of GMing?

I love the Spurs and I love how they can draft well (we need to do better, keep a good coach (I hope to keep Carlisle), and sign stars for cheap (something we may never do, because we don't have the prestige), but they are the exception, not the rule.

So my question for you is: if we can't draft like we have an honest-to-god psychic working for us and we can't talk players into signing for half the money they'd get elsewhere, then how DO we improve? That seems to be the real question, because I don't see us turning into the Spurs. If we just offer every free agent 50% of what their people want, we are going to lose out on a LOT of players and our reputation as a winning franchise will be even more buried in the annals of history. "we won back in 2011," probably won't attract many stars to Dallas in 2017 when Dirk is retired and we have Ellis playing pre-Dirk, pre-Nash Finley and we're winning at a .300 pace.

No, I made my argument against Melo in the previous posts - the Spurs championship is just another wrinkle in the ever-changing fiscal landscape of the NBA.

The point is that San Antonio just won a ring with a $12.5m Tony Parker as their most expensive player... And if one of the top PGs in the league is only worth twelve-five, then no way in hell is Carmelo Anthony worth $20m. Not in this CBA.

[jthig32]

I would say the "not in this CBA" argument is changing a bit. The cap is going way up this year and all signs point to it continuing to go up. Tons of teams have cap room now, and teams are experiencing less cap clog with only 4 or 5 year contracts being possible.

I actually tend to agree that Carmelo probably isn't worth the mega max at this point. But all that cap room is going to mean that most players you sign in free agency aren't going to be worth what they get.

Anthony is clearly a ball dominant player, but let's not discount the ability to score at that volume with a quality TS%. And yes, Jack.Kerr, he's an elite rebounder at SF. He wouldn't play any PF here.

I don't hold any true admiration for Carmelo as a person, but I'll take his skillset and let Rick smooth a few rough edges.

[yahyes]

WE'D LOVE TO HAVE MELO HERE


I've been sensing this since May. Say yes to Carmelo if the option is right.

[Popeye]

I don't think Melo is worth the max for the Mavs. He might be worth it to the Bulls or some great defensive team that's offensively challenged. The Mavs were a top 5 offense in the league last year, so adding Melo isn't going to help them much.

I like Ariza. Throughout his career he's played well when on a good team. He's a good role player that would do well as 3rd bananna to Dirk and Monta. If you add Ariza and a good defensive center I think you're closer to a championship than with Melo.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by Popeye

I don't think Melo is worth the max for the Mavs. He might be worth it to the Bulls or some great defensive team that's offensively challenged. The Mavs were a top 5 offense in the league last year, so adding Melo isn't going to help them much.

I like Ariza. Throughout his career he's played well when on a good team. He's a good role player that would do well as 3rd bananna to Dirk and Monta. If you add Ariza and a good defensive center I think you're closer to a championship than with Melo.

I love ariza, anything less than 8 mil and I'm great with him. One thing this finals highlighted is how much having a non shooter perimeter player hurts

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Popeye

If you add Ariza and a good defensive center I think you're closer to a championship than with Melo.

Bingo.

If the Mavs only lacked a starting SF, then Melo might cure what ails us... But we're in dire need of a starting center and don't have the pieces to trade for one without creating another position of need (which we wouldn't be able to fill if we spent all our cap space on Carmelo Anthony...)

I think a combination of Deng/Ariza and Gortat/healthy Okafor (or maybe a Calderon/Wright-centric trade for Chandler/Hibbert, then going after Lowry/Livingston with the rest of our cap) would be a much wiser way to spend our money than signing Melo outright.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by yahyes

WE'D LOVE TO HAVE MELO HERE


I've been sensing this since May. Say yes to Carmelo if the option is right.

Psh, what does Dirk know about basketball?

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I respect that opinion, but I disagree. I think he's the most natural fit of any of the non centers with the possible exception of ariza

Do you want to play any defense at all?

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Psh, what does Dirk know about basketball?

He knows that he's almost ready to be a 3rd option in scoring.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

Do you want to play any defense at all?

Melo isn't nearly as bad a defender as people on this board pretend he is.

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

Melo isn't nearly as bad a defender as people on this board pretend he is.

You know I respect your opinion, but this is the same sort of stuff that people said about Monta Ellis last year when he got here. All I'm saying is that, rather than hoping for what he might be, we should look at past performance as the best predictor of what he will be.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I think a combination of Deng/Ariza and Gortat/healthy Okafor (or maybe a Calderon/Wright-centric trade for Chandler/Hibbert, then going after Lowry/Livingston with the rest of our cap) would be a much wiser way to spend our money than signing Melo outright.

Deng is expected to get 11-12, Ariza is expected to get 7-8
Gortat is expected to get 10-12
Lowry is expected to get 11-12

Doesnt really work.

After Deng/Ariza + Gortat (IF we get him), there isnt much cap left...

[sike]

I'm just counting on Melo not wanting to come to Dallas. Isn't that what happens to us?

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Deng is expected to get 11-12, Ariza is expected to get 7-8
Gortat is expected to get 10-12
Lowry is expected to get 11-12

Doesnt really work.

After Deng/Ariza + Gortat (IF we get him), there isnt much cap left...

Not saying it would happen, but for example, if you traded Calderon/Wright for Chandler, then you'd still have enough money to sign Lowry/Ariza outright:

Lowry/Harris
Ellis/Crowder
Ariza/Carter
Dirk/my granny
Chandler/Dalembert

Right now the Mavs have a ton of options to build this roster up... These are just the obvious targets, but I wouldn't be surprised if the MBT pulled something out of left field that nobody even considered.

[jacktruth]

I think the conversation with Melo will be something like this:

We have a system that can get you the shots you want and need, but you need to work in the system. If you don't, you sit.

If he can work with that, I support him as a Mav.

I think he's seen that being the star on a team isn't really working out much for him. Maybe he's ready for an ego-adjustment.

However, if it means we don't get a quality center, I'm out. I'm not sure what it would take to get NY to send Melo and Tyson Chandler here, but that would be worth a lot.

[Murphy3]

My guess is that all of the perceived "good options" fail and the Mavs are left scrambling hoping to pull something out of their rear ends like they did last year... but hey, that's just me.

[sike]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

My guess is that all of the perceived "good options" fail and the Mavs are left scrambling hoping to pull something out of their rear ends like they did last year... but hey, that's just me.

It might be my "poor us" mindset, but I tend to agree.

Until a TOP LEVEL FA actually chooses us, I just don't think they want to come to Dallas.

I would think that smart players would WANT to play for Rick.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

You know I respect your opinion, but this is the same sort of stuff that people said about Monta Ellis last year when he got here. All I'm saying is that, rather than hoping for what he might be, we should look at past performance as the best predictor of what he will be.

I'm not saying I hope in the right system he'd be better, I'm saying he's already better in his current crappy system than people think. Now if we can get ariza, ariza to melo is a huge defensive downgrade, but other than that? No real difference.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by sike

It might be my "poor us" mindset, but I tend to agree.

Until a TOP LEVEL FA actually chooses us, I just don't think they want to come to Dallas.

I would think that smart players would WANT to play for Rick.

The problem is that Dirk is old... and not sure how much pull Monta has when players are considering a team.

[kg_veteran]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I'm not saying I hope in the right system he'd be better, I'm saying he's already better in his current crappy system than people think. Now if we can get ariza, ariza to melo is a huge defensive downgrade, but other than that? No real difference.

Okay. What do you base that opinion on? Just watching him?

[yahyes]

They're saying Bulls would have to amnesty Boozer and trade Taj Gibson. Hmm.. that would mean there wouldn't be an established PF that Melo could team up with there. Just gamble on Rose's health mostly if he signed in Chicago. At least the Mavs already have a well established PF.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by yahyes

They're saying Bulls would have to amnesty Boozer and trade Taj Gibson. Hmm.. that would mean there wouldn't be an established PF that Melo could team up with there. Just gamble on Rose's health mostly if he signed in Chicago. At least the Mavs already have a well established PF.

If they're going that route, they should just trade Boozer and Gibson to Minnesota for Kevin Love.

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by spreedom

If they're going that route, they should just trade Boozer and Gibson to Minnesota for Kevin Love.

I don't see Love going anywhere unless it's a mid-season trade. Minnesota would want something big. Not a table scrap like Boozer and Gibson.

[Floppy]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I would say the "not in this CBA" argument is changing a bit. The cap is going way up this year and all signs point to it continuing to go up. Tons of teams have cap room now, and teams are experiencing less cap clog with only 4 or 5 year contracts being possible.

I actually tend to agree that Carmelo probably isn't worth the mega max at this point. But all that cap room is going to mean that most players you sign in free agency aren't going to be worth what they get.

Anthony is clearly a ball dominant player, but let's not discount the ability to score at that volume with a quality TS%. And yes, Jack.Kerr, he's an elite rebounder at SF. He wouldn't play any PF here.

I don't hold any true admiration for Carmelo as a person, but I'll take his skillset and let Rick smooth a few rough edges.

If we get Melo he would definitely play backup PF here and be the best backup PF Dirk has ever had .

SF-Melo 20 MPG / Crowder - Carter cover the remaining 28 MPG with Carter some at SG
PF-Dirk 30 MPG / Melo 18 MPG

[Floppy]

Originally Posted by Popeye

I don't think Melo is worth the max for the Mavs. He might be worth it to the Bulls or some great defensive team that's offensively challenged. The Mavs were a top 5 offense in the league last year, so adding Melo isn't going to help them much.

I like Ariza. Throughout his career he's played well when on a good team. He's a good role player that would do well as 3rd bananna to Dirk and Monta. If you add Ariza and a good defensive center I think you're closer to a championship than with Melo.

I like Ariza too ..But I disagree on Melo not making us better . So we had a Top 5 offense without Melo ..With Melo we would clearly have the #1 Offense in the NBA so yes going from 5th to 1st does help us .

Also I think if got Melo then we try to trade for Chandler


The other thing is not only does Melo make our starting better but I think he also plays backup PF which probably gives us the best bench in the NBA too .


PG-Harris / Calderon / Larkin
SG-Ellis / Carter / Ledo
SF-Melo / Crowder / KJ McDaniels
PF-Dirk / Melo / Blair / Tolliver
C-Chandler / Dalembert / Tavares


This would be a A+ Offseason and definitely a contending team

[Floppy]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Bingo.

If the Mavs only lacked a starting SF, then Melo might cure what ails us... But we're in dire need of a starting center and don't have the pieces to trade for one without creating another position of need (which we wouldn't be able to fill if we spent all our cap space on Carmelo Anthony...)

I think a combination of Deng/Ariza and Gortat/healthy Okafor (or maybe a Calderon/Wright-centric trade for Chandler/Hibbert, then going after Lowry/Livingston with the rest of our cap) would be a much wiser way to spend our money than signing Melo outright.

I think if you sign Melo then NY Gladly trades Chandler for Wright + Ellington + Mekel + James SNT + 1st Rd Pick ( 2 if necessary )

[yahyes]

Originally Posted by Floppy

If we get Melo he would definitely play backup PF here and be the best backup PF Dirk has ever had .

SF-Melo 20 MPG / Crowder - Carter cover the remaining 28 MPG with Carter some at SG
PF-Dirk 30 MPG / Melo 18 MPG

Wait.. you think Carmelo is at the PF status? The guy could play SG while having Marion back at SF.

[Floppy]

Originally Posted by yahyes

Wait.. you think Carmelo is at the PF status? The guy could play SG while having Marion back at SF.

Melo played quite a bit of PF this year ...Don't see him much as a SG.

He would immediately become the best Starting Small Forward / Backup Power Forward the Mavs ever had

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by kg_veteran

Okay. What do you base that opinion on? Just watching him?

That, his own/opponent per numbers and his on/off court defensive numbers. He had a bigger positive impact than chandler did on the Knicks defense last season. Now I'm a little weary of the own/opponent per numbers because they also make Ellis look really good defensively, but the eye test and the on/off numbers tell a different story. Melo looks solid in all 3 respects IMO. Now one caveat to this, melo, much like deng, derives a lot of defensive value from the ability to guard bigger guys which isn't as important as the ability to guard quickness on this particular team. That's the reason I said ariza would be a huge defensive upgrade but none of the other options would be.

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by Floppy

I think if you sign Melo then NY Gladly trades Chandler for Wright + Ellington + Mekel + James SNT + 1st Rd Pick ( 2 if necessary )

Please don't take this the wrong way, but everyone needs to stop posting this absolutely ridiculous trade. NY is NOT in any way going to trade Chandler for our trash ... yes, I'm including Wright. What team trades a stellar defensive starting center for a guy that has zero defense and can only jump+dunk plus 3 other guys that barely see any playing time at all except for pure garbage minutes? It's not going to happen.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

Please don't take this the wrong way, but everyone needs to stop posting this absolutely ridiculous trade. NY is NOT in any way going to trade Chandler for our trash ... yes, I'm including Wright. What team trades a stellar defensive starting center for a guy that has zero defense and can only jump+dunk plus 3 other guys that barely see any playing time at all except for pure garbage minutes? It's not going to happen.

That is a trash trade but it's a trash trade for us. We aren't dealing two first rounders for chandler

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by yahyes

They're saying Bulls would have to amnesty Boozer and trade Taj Gibson. Hmm.. that would mean there wouldn't be an established PF that Melo could team up with there. Just gamble on Rose's health mostly if he signed in Chicago. At least the Mavs already have a well established PF.

If Melo wants to win, he chooses the Bulls. AND he takes a paycut allowing the Bulls to keep Gibson. Tell them to dump Dunleavy and Snell and take then 15-16m. Kind of agree with them to get the money back after he opted out after three years.

Thats a great team, even with a 50% Rose. Really great balance: Rose-Butler-Melo-Gibson-Noah. Fill the bench with ring whores...

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by sefant77

If Melo wants to win, he chooses the Bulls. AND he takes a paycut allowing the Bulls to keep Gibson. Tell them to dump Dunleavy and Snell and take then 15-16m. Kind of agree with them to get the money back after he opted out after three years.

Thats a great team, even with a 50% Rose. Really great balance: Rose-Butler-Melo-Gibson-Noah. Fill the bench with ring whores...

I'm in complete agreement. I think that after this off season the bulls should be the favorite from the East. Honestly, if Melo chooses Houston I am going to laugh. Melo needs to go to a championship caliber coach with players around him. Spurs will run all over the Rockets next year even with Melo... Good luck winning a championship with Kevin Mchale as your coach. Maybe thats unfair, but.. he simply is no Pop, Thibodeau, or Carlisle. Eventually these players are going to figure out that coaching matters in the NBA.

[MavzMan]

Interesting twitter from Bill Simmons ...

Bill Simmons: FYI: it's easy for Clips to make a LeBron run. Trade Deandre + Jamal to teams with cap space (easy), then use 1st rounder to dump Dudley $. Also - if you don't think the Clips are exploring that game plan, you are nuts.

OK, I would be all over trading for Deandre and Jamal. Can you imagine Deandre under RC and away from the ESPN highlight reel of Blake Griffin? He could easily become the #1 center defender in the league, plus getting the offensive explosion from Jamal. Holy cow, that just makes me drool.

[spreedom]

DAJ would be nice, but he epitomizes the difference between a "shotblocker" and a "rim protector"/"defender". Jordan allows a pretty insane FG% at the rim. But he'd instantly be the 2nd-best center the team has ever had, so we can't really afford to be too picky.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

I'm in complete agreement. I think that after this off season the bulls should be the favorite from the East. Honestly, if Melo chooses Houston I am going to laugh. Melo needs to go to a championship caliber coach with players around him. Spurs will run all over the Rockets next year even with Melo... Good luck winning a championship with Kevin Mchale as your coach. Maybe thats unfair, but.. he simply is no Pop, Thibodeau, or Carlisle. Eventually these players are going to figure out that coaching matters in the NBA.

I couldn't disagree more. The bulls do very little for me going forward

[hayth.james.g]

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

I couldn't disagree more. The bulls do very little for me going forward

Top 5 Coach imo. Top 3 PG when healthy. Top 3 Defensive Center with high character and is the backbone of the team. Depending on what they have to give up to get Carmelo... I just think that Derrick Rose's ability to penetrate and create, Noah's grittiness on both ends of the court, Carmelo's ability to score, and Thibodeau's coaching instantly puts them in contention to win the East. Granted you are pretty reliant on Rose getting back on the court, but I would rather bet my pennies with him than that group in Houston. Mark my words.. Houston will only continue to under deliver.

[Five-ofan]

Originally Posted by hayth.james.g

Top 5 Coach imo. Top 3 PG when healthy. Top 3 Defensive Center with high character and is the backbone of the team. Depending on what they have to give up to get Carmelo... I just think that Derrick Rose's ability to penetrate and create, Noah's grittiness on both ends of the court, Carmelo's ability to score, and Thibodeau's coaching instantly puts them in contention to win the East. Granted you are pretty reliant on Rose getting back on the court, but I would rather bet my pennies with him than that group in Houston. Mark my words.. Houston will only continue to under deliver.

Rose hasn't played in 2.5 years so I see no reason to expect him to come back healthy(and he's not a top 3 pg anyway) also Noah played more than 66 games for the first time in 6 years last year. Couple that with the fact that they are the worst offense in the nba and I don't see them as close to contention.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

Interesting twitter from Bill Simmons ...

Bill Simmons: FYI: it's easy for Clips to make a LeBron run. Trade Deandre + Jamal to teams with cap space (easy), then use 1st rounder to dump Dudley $. Also - if you don't think the Clips are exploring that game plan, you are nuts.

OK, I would be all over trading for Deandre and Jamal. Can you imagine Deandre under RC and away from the ESPN highlight reel of Blake Griffin? He could easily become the #1 center defender in the league, plus getting the offensive explosion from Jamal. Holy cow, that just makes me drool.

I like Simmons but it isn't quite as easy as he makes it sound. I realize some of this is a function of the twitter format. Dudley is owed 8.5 over the next two seasons. The Clippers have the #28 pick this season but owe next seasons pick to Celtics for Doc. In a deep draft not sure the guaranteed salary of a late 1st is worth that Dudley contract? (The timing matters too as free agency opens AFTER the draft. I suppose they could try and trade Dudley with #28 anyway, LeBron or no, just to open the 5-6 in cap room). So in that case you're looking at trading a 2016 pick and or Reggie Bullock to dump Dudley?

Crawford and Jordan are relatively fairly paid(Crawford around 5.5 per for the next two)so it is likely they could dump those two.

They'd be better off attaching Dudley to Jordan in a larger deal. But then said team receiving has to decide if Jordan and is worth essentially 15m per(by taking on Dudley)away from Doc/CP/Blake.