D-Hare lighting it up again! - Page 9 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

ISO offense is about putting the ball in your best player's hands and letting him go to work -- it's a helluva thing to do IMO

I guess you missed the Golden State series - we did that, Dirk got swarmed, we lost...

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

If you really dig into the numbers you'll see that last season (ie, supposedly before Harris blew up), Kidd averaged 3.5 more assists per 36 minutes then Harris, so that's 3.5 more baskets per game you get from Kidd that you don't get from Harris, right? Wrong, because it's not like someone wouldn't have taken a shot on those possessions, they'd just take the shot off the dribble--so we're really talking more like 2.0 baskets per game that you get out of kidd that you didn't get out of harris....so, plus 4 pts per game

4 points isn't much, is it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

But there are other differences -- Harris averaged 17 pts per 36 minutes while Kidd averaged 10 pts per 36 minutes....so let's all do the math here -- we gave up 17 pts per game in order to pick up 10 pts per game plus 4 pts per game from assist....for the mathematically challenged, 17>14.

But 3 points is a lot, isn't it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

I'm not trying to argue that Harris is a better basketball player than Jason Kidd now, much less when Kidd was in his prime, just that the marginal benefit of getting a really really great passer is very small in basketball....very small....

Kidd does more than just pass the ball:

Rebounds - Devin (3.7) // Kidd (7.3)
Steals - Devin (1.3) // Kidd (2.4)
Blocks - Devin (0.1) // Kidd (0.6)
3-Point % - Devin (31%) // Kidd (44%)

alexamenos · 12-02-2008, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

I guess you missed the Golden State series - we did that, Dirk got swarmed, we lost...

We also did it against Memphis, San Antonio and Phoenix and made it to the NBA finals.

The thing about the kidd trade is it was such a blatant reaction to the Golden State series -- 'did you see how we got beat because we couldn't move the ball effectively and we couldn't guard the big point guard...what do we do???? Jason Kidd!!!' The problem was the next season they didn't face the Golden State Warriors, they played someone else.

The generals are always fighting the last war....

Anyway, I'm not trying to say that Harris is a better basketball player than Kidd. I'm saying that we wanted better passing out of the point guard position, and we got it. Yeah for us!

Now I'm asking the question, 'does better passing from the point guard position really mean more wins?' The answer of course is that it depends upon what you give up, and I'm saying that one doesn't have to give up much before better passing at the point guard position doesn't translate to more wins. I would say in retrospect that 3 or 4 more assists per game certainly aren't worth the ability to get to the line 3 or four times when it comes to putting games in the 'W' column.

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

We also did it against Memphis, San Antonio and Phoenix and made it to the NBA finals.

The thing about the kidd trade is it was such a blatant reaction to the Golden State series -- 'did you see how we got beat because we couldn't move the ball effectively and we couldn't guard the big point guard...what do we do???? Jason Kidd!!!' The problem was the next season they didn't face the Golden State Warriors, they played someone else.

The generals are always fighting the last war....

Anyway, I'm not trying to say that Harris is a better basketball player than Kidd. I'm saying that we wanted better passing out of the point guard position, and we got it. Yeah for us!

Now I'm asking the question, 'does better passing from the point guard position really mean more wins?' The answer of course is that it depends upon what you give up, and I'm saying that one doesn't have to give up much before better passing at the point guard position doesn't translate to more wins. I would say in retrospect that 3 or 4 more assists per game certainly aren't worth the ability to get to the line 3 or four times when it comes to putting games in the 'W' column.

Have you checked our team stats lately? Everyone wants to point their finger at the PG position, but our biggest problem is that NOBODY on this team can score...

Dirk, Josh, JET, and Kidd are the only double-digit scorers we have - the decline of Jerry Stackhouse has had a HUGE affect on our offense, since he was our 5th scorer the past few seasons... Hell, the next best guy we have right now is Bass at 7.0 ppg - we're in DESPERATE need of a trade (and have been since the Kidd trade - I could have sworn we were going to make a second move after that went down, but management seemed to have enough faith in Dirk's backup to make up for the lost scoring!)

I still contend that we're only one move away from being legit, but I'm not sure if we have the pieces to get it done now... I agree that the Kidd trade sucked, but "Jason Kidd, the trade" and "Jason Kidd, the player" are two very different things...

Kidd's legit - sick the mob on Donnie for getting hosed by the lowly Nets...

SMC0007 · 12-02-2008, 03:26 PM

agreed

alexamenos · 12-02-2008, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Have you checked our team stats lately? Everyone wants to point their finger at the PG position, but our biggest problem is that NOBODY on this team can score......

this is why I keep asking "does such and such skill translate to more wins?" rather than "is the new guy a better individual basketball player than the other guy?"

what this team completely lacks is someone that can put the ball on the ground and get to the hoop or to the free throw line....too bad they don't have some skinny little kid to do this, even if he wasn't the greatest passer or 3 point shooter on earth.

sometimes I frighten myself --

Quote:

I'm kind of seeing a monkey's paw kind of deal in all this.....

Monkey's Paw, for those who may not recall, is the story of a fellow who finds a talisman (monkey's paw) which will grant him three wishes. He makes a wish for money to pay the rent which is granted vis a vis payment on his son's accidental death. He then wishes that his son were still alive, and his son returns alive, but still horribly mangled and in tremendous pain from the the accident which caused his death. Finally, the old dude wishes the wishes hadn't come true.

So, we wished for pure point guard and we got one. We wish for the dismissal of Avery and we may get that one too. Our third wish may well be for the days when Avery was micro-managing Devin Harris.

Bookit · 12-02-2008, 03:34 PM

The Mavs played very well against good teams with Devin in the lineup. Dirk complained about the iso offense and they got rid of Devin to change it. That was a horrible decision since the iso offense really only was pronounced when Devin was out of the lineup. The problem wasn't Devin, and giving him away(plus picks) for an aging NAME wasn't going to make it better. They should have fired Avery on the spot and kept the team intact.

Kidd is an absolute battler and is really fun to watch but his lack of free throw production really hurts this team. No one on this board would have believed how bad Kidd is around the basket. Since Jet and now Dirk don't get free throws, that only leaves Josh to get them and that just isn't enough.

The only aspect of the trade that has worked well is that Kidd can guard bigger players which frees up the team to play two point guards.

alexamenos · 12-02-2008, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bookit

Kidd is an absolute battler and is really fun to watch but his lack of free throw production really hurts this team. No one on this board would have believed how bad Kidd is around the basket. Since Jet and now Dirk don't get free throws, that only leaves Josh to get them and that just isn't enough.

Josh doesn't get to the line with quite as much regularity as Dirk. Josh isn't terrible about getting to the line, but he's nothing special at all.

Devin, on the other hand, is among the league's best at getting to the line....while kidd only gets to the line a little more often than I do.

It's a pretty dramatic swing to give up the league's best at something for someone who really gives you nothing in that same something. With respect to getting to the line, the mavs went from among the league's best when they made their run to very mediocre.

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 03:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

this is why I keep asking "does such and such skill translate to more wins?" rather than "is the new guy a better individual basketball player than the other guy?"

Does more assists translate into more wins? No

Does more assists, rebounds, steals, blocks and 3-pointers translate into more wins? Check back in a few months...

fluid.forty.one · 12-02-2008, 04:00 PM

Milkface: Dominant Destroyer!
Devin Harris Cures Cancer, Solves Crimes, Finds Lost Puppies
Mike Fisher -- DB.com

I’m not sure why we’re holding back here. SI said Devin is going to dominate the NBA for years to come and Hollinger says he has clearly established himself as the next Kevin Johnson with not only “dominance’’ but also “destruction’’? Screw Kevin Johnson. I say Magic Johnson. No, wait. … Lyndon Johnson. That’s it! Devin Harris – my old friend “Milkface’’ -- is going to impact this nation in a way comparable to that of Lyndon Johnson.
Devin Harris, the Mav-turned-Net, has inspired DB.com’s 75-Member Staff to assemble a list of his many accomplishments. For instance: Bet you didn’t know that Marlee Matlin's favorite song is Devin Harris, that Devin Harris did not "lose" his virginity, he took it to the hole and drew an And1, or that Rosa Parks refused to get out of her seat because she was saving it for Devin Harris.

More Devin Harris accomplishments:
If you have five dollars and Devin Harris has five dollars, Devin has more money than you.
There is no ctrl button on Devin's computer. Devin is always in control.
Remember al Queada? They decided to quit after watching that Suns-Nets game last night.
Contrary to popular belief, America is not a democracy, it's a Devintatorship.
When that Nets-Suns game was aired in France, the French surrendered to Devin just to be on the safe side.
Devin Harris invented the color black. In fact, he invented the entire spectrum of light. Except pink. Jason Kidd invented pink.
Devin Harris once converted a five-point play.
Little known medical fact: Devin Harris invented the Caesarean section when he crossover-dribbled his way out of his mother's womb.
Hellen Keller's favorite color is Devin Harris.
Marlee Matlin's favorite song is Devin Harris.
When J. Robert Oppenheimer said "I am become death, the destroyer Of worlds", He was not referring to the atomic bomb. He was referring to Devin Harris taking his man off the dribble.
Devin Harris is what Willis was talkin' about.
In a fight between the Federation and the Romulans, the winner would be Devin Harris.
The 11th commandment is "Thou shalt not guard Devin Harris." This commandment is rarely enforced, as it is impossible to accomplish.
They were going to release a Devin Harris edition of Clue, but the answer always turns out to be "Devin Harris. In The Library. With a Crossover Dribble."
Devin Harris did not "lose" his virginity, he took it to the hole and drew an And One
When God said, "Let there be light," Devin Harris said, "Say please."
Devin Harris can strangle a hooker with only one hand.
Champions are the breakfast of Devin Harris.
Rosa Parks refused to get out of her seat because she was saving it for Devin Harris.
A Handicap parking sign does not signify that this spot is for handicapped people. It is actually in fact a warning, that the spot belongs to Devin Harris and that you will be handicapped if you park there.
Men are okay with their wives fantasizing about Devin Harris during sex, because they are doing the same thing.
The best part of waking up is not Folgers in your cup, but knowing that Devin Harris didn't cross you over in your sleep.
Devin Harris doesn't have hair on his testicles, because hair does not grow on steel.
Devin Harris' calendar goes straight from March 31st to April 2nd; no one fools Devin Harris.

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 04:06 PM

^LOL

alexamenos · 12-02-2008, 04:13 PM

Sadly, the mavs played 44 games last season with Devin Harris on the roster and they've since played 44 more games....those are pretty good sample sizes....

31-13 before trade (on pace to win 58 games)
24-20 after trade (on pace to win 45 games)

The difference between 58 wins and 45 wins is the difference between a very good team and a very average team, and everything my eyes see tells me that the mavs as currently constructed are a very average team. Yes, they have bursts and bouts of tremendous play, but every average team since the dawn of many has played well in stretches.

I don't mean to say that I think things would be terribly different if they had Harris here, but the "Jason Adrian Dantly Kidd" trade pretty clearly marks the beginning of the end of a nice long run.

DirkFTW · 12-02-2008, 04:16 PM

Awesome! But I'm a dork....

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

The 11th commandment is "Thou shalt not guard Devin Harris." This commandment is rarely enforced, as it is impossible to accomplish.

Doesn't this mean people can't help but guard Devin Harris?

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

Sadly, the mavs played 44 games last season with Devin Harris on the roster and they've since played 44 more games....those are pretty good sample sizes....

Sure, if you want to observe your data in a vacuum where Kidd joining a new team in the middle of the season with a coach who doesn't want him here, then maybe it can be considered a "good" sample size...

alexamenos · 12-02-2008, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Sure, if you want to observe your data in a vacuum where Kidd joining a new team in the middle of the season with a coach who doesn't want him here, then maybe it can be considered a "good" sample size...

i'm not looking at any one thing in isolation.....mostly just what I see watching them play. I don't know, maybe something will click, I just don't see anything special on this team.

Underdog · 12-02-2008, 04:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

i'm not looking at any one thing in isolation.....mostly just what I see watching them play. I don't know, maybe something will click, I just don't see anything special on this team.

Agreed - I've felt we needed to make a second deal for a 2-guard or low-post player ever since I first heard rumors of a Kidd-for-Devin trade...

Still waiting...

The Crippler · 12-02-2008, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

Sadly, the mavs played 44 games last season with Devin Harris on the roster and they've since played 44 more games....those are pretty good sample sizes....

31-13 before trade (on pace to win 58 games)
24-20 after trade (on pace to win 45 games)

The difference between 58 wins and 45 wins is the difference between a very good team and a very average team, and everything my eyes see tells me that the mavs as currently constructed are a very average team. Yes, they have bursts and bouts of tremendous play, but every average team since the dawn of many has played well in stretches.

I don't mean to say that I think things would be terribly different if they had Harris here, but the "Jason Adrian Dantly Kidd" trade pretty clearly marks the beginning of the end of a nice long run.

alexamenos, I must spread rep around first before I give you anymore says the machine here...

Anyway, I logged on to do this exact post about the records before and after the raping but see that you had the same idea. Good stuff man.

fluid.forty.one · 12-02-2008, 11:24 PM

DH with a team worst -21 tonight in a blowout loss to the (then) 2-12 Wizards.

basketballgirl25 · 12-02-2008, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

DH with a team worst -21 tonight in a blowout loss to the (then) 2-12 Wizards.

yeah Nets sucked tonight, but hey what are you going to do I think the more loses the early the better for the younger players to learn from mistakes. Harris had one of the better games out of the Net players though.

On other notes I hope Kidd breaks his legs and never plays again he makes me sick

fluid.forty.one · 12-02-2008, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

Harris had one of the better games out of the Net players though.

The team sure did a lot better when he was off the court.

dirno2000 · 12-03-2008, 12:38 AM

Not trying to make excuses for Devin (well, maybe I am

) but +/- isn't really that meaningful when the sample size is one game.

chumdawg · 12-03-2008, 12:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Not trying to make excuses for Devin (well, maybe I am

) but +/- isn't really that meaningful when the sample size is one game.

The sample size is always one game.

alby · 12-03-2008, 12:47 AM

lol.

dirno2000 · 12-03-2008, 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

The sample size is always one game.

no it's not

ty · 12-03-2008, 01:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

On other notes I hope Kidd breaks his legs and never plays again he makes me sick

Why are you here?

fluid.forty.one · 12-03-2008, 01:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ty

Why are you here?

Cause we're her 14th favorite team!

bernardos70 · 12-03-2008, 02:44 AM

Can you tell me again whether she loves or hates Jason Kidd? It's Wednesday today, if that helps you answer the question.

basketballgirl25 · 12-03-2008, 05:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bernardos70

Can you tell me again whether she loves or hates Jason Kidd? It's Wednesday today, if that helps you answer the question.

I can tell you I'm really trying to like Kidd, but it is really kind of hard to after last year. I'm just trying not to be like Raptor fans and feel the same way they do about Carter because Kidd and Carter are the same they both bailed on a team, you would understand if Dirk did that to the Mavs

basketballgirl25 · 12-03-2008, 06:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ty

Why are you here?

because I thought I like Kidd, but I really can't stand him anymore if Raptor fans can hate Vince Carter still after 5 years, then I can hate Kidd they did the same thing. and like I said before you would understand were I am coming from if Dirk did the same thing to the Mavs, so yuo can't really understand it all

basketballgirl25 · 12-03-2008, 06:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

The team sure did a lot better when he was off the court.

I was just saying he had a better game then the rest of the team, I'm not saying he did have a great game, a lot were more off then he was, but like they said at the beginning of the game at lot of teams don't play as good the first game back home after a road trip, no excuses but that is what happens I've seen it with other teams also

basketballgirl25 · 12-03-2008, 06:24 AM

I thought I would share some things with you all if you haven't seen them

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slu...yhoo&type=lgns

and

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...yhoo&type=lgns

I find it funny how both teams have the same record as of right now anyway, I know things will change, but it makes me feel a whole lot better about Nets losing last night, but anyway thought you all might like to read those if you didn't already

Nowitzkizer · 12-03-2008, 08:37 AM

It's interesting that the Mavericks have the same record as the Nets at 9-8. Interesting in a way that Jason Kidd coming to Dallas was supposed to make Dallas better and the Mavericks are supposed to have a better record than the rebuilding Nets. Sure, it's still early in the season and the recent 7-1 run is relieving. Drawing confidence from that 7-1 run though, is misleading, as only 3 of 8 teams that we played against had a record (at the time we played them) above .500. The Nets, in comparison, played 5 of 8 teams above .500.

If the Mavs have the same record as the Nets, it only means that Kidd is making Dallas worse and Harris is making NJ a LOT better. Using the data from that link, the Mavs traded for:
-15.1 PTS, +3.6 REB, +2.2 AST, -1 TO, -2.1 FG%, -12.6 FT%, +13.1 3P%

If the trade was made straight up (and the Nets GM said that he would have), the trade still would have been bad. I realize I am comparing individual player statistics over the player's overall impact on their respective teams, but does the 36.1 minutes per game that Kidd has on the floor to make an impact (be it by assists, rebounds, etc) really make up for the 15.1 PPG disparity?

A straight up trade for:
-15.1 PTS, +3.6 REB, +2.2 AST, -1 TO, -2.1 FG%, -12.6 FT%, +13.1 3P%
is bad.

That same trade but in addition trading away 2 first round picks, a mid-level exception, and 3 million dollars in cash?

Really bad.

Silk Smoov · 12-03-2008, 08:56 AM

Why dont you guys and gals share a cell and bump booties all night. Dont nobody want to hear that mess you are talking about. Hopefully, a moderator either deletes or moves this thread. This section is about our Mavs ONLY. I could care less what the Nets does. They can fall off the face of the earth for all I care.

Nowitzkizer · 12-03-2008, 09:03 AM

Sorry, I didn't mean to come off as a troll. I just wanted to highlight certain impending doom for the Mavs. I think it would be in our best interest to rebuild or at least move a key player or two around.

dude1394 · 12-03-2008, 09:39 AM

Interesting Analysis on devein/jkiddo. I'm not so sure I agree with the conclusion however as he's using a static analysis. Certainly Devin wouldn't be going for 47 here as he wouldn't be getting the shots. Also not so sure dirk(we didn't see it), jet/josh would be doing the same either.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...yhoo&type=lgns

Quote:

AccuScore: Devin Harris vs. Jason Kidd

By Stephen Oh, AccuScore.com 10 hours, 14 minutes ago

*
Buzz up!
*
Print

AccuScore has simulated the current NBA season under the premise last season’s deadline deal involving Jason Kidd and Devin Harris didn’t happen in order to guage the long-term impact of the trade. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's “next-season” analysis of the Harris-Kidd trade.

Devin Harris has been spectacular for the surprisingly good 9-8 New Jersey Nets. Jason Kidd has been statistically good as well and the Mavs are also 9-8.

Statistical Comparison

Devin Harris has put up 25 points and 6 assists per game on nearly 49 percent shooting. Jason Kidd has been shooting very well from 3-point range and is an excellent rebounder at PG. Kidd has the edge in assists, but Harris has the slight edge in assist-to-turnover ratio.

SEASON TO DATE FG% FT% 3P% AST TO AST/TO REB PTS
Devin Harris 48.7% 81.8% 31.0% 6.4 2.1 3.0 3.7 25.3
Jason Kidd 46.6% 69.2% 44.1% 8.6 3.1 2.8 7.3 10.2

So the question is how would the Mavs perform if they can undo this trade at this point in the season?

Kidd holds his own vs. Harris

It is somewhat surprising to see that the Mavs, currently 9-8, only win an average of 1 more game per 10,000 simulations for the rest of the season with Devin Harris. Their chances of winning the division and making the playoffs are slightly higher (+3 percentage points) with Harris.

DALLAS W L DIV PLAYOFF
w/ Kidd 50 32 18% 86%
w/ Harris 51 31 21% 89%

When you factor in age, there is no question that Dallas would have been better off with Harris. But on the court this season, Kidd is holding his own. While the Mavs would be better with Harris, the difference is not as big as some might think given how good Harris has been with New Jersey for this season. The Mavs have plenty of scoring options with Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry. Kidd is a pass-first point guard who is a superior 3-point shooter (by the numbers), which helps the Mavs win nearly as many games as they would have had they kept Harris.

The Nets need Harris and his dynamic scoring. Their projected wins drop from 43 with Harris to just 38 with Kidd. Harris is best as a primary scoring option which the Nets need more than Dallas does.

Eman · 12-03-2008, 10:08 AM

Interesting that Accuscore says that the Mav's would have only one more win with Harris. Of course the stats can't take into account Kidd's passes that lead to a pass where someone has an easy score. I see so many of those on breaks. The rest of our guys have a much easier time scoring.

Curious to see how good we are when Josh gets back and Green and Wright and Williams have a little time to get better.

Zki41 · 12-03-2008, 10:45 AM

.500 teams that the Nets play have been different from the .500 teams we play. While I'm too lazy to look them up, I'm rather sure that the nets played the Hawks twice, and while the Hawks are unfolding to become a formidable threat, they are weaker than let's say, the Lakers.

DirkFTW · 12-03-2008, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

and like I said before you would understand were I am coming from if Dirk did the same thing to the Mavs, so yuo can't really understand it all

That's because you weren't here when things got Nashty. We know where you're coming from but we still have trouble understanding where you're going.

Underdog · 12-03-2008, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

because I thought I like Kidd, but I really can't stand him anymore if Raptor fans can hate Vince Carter still after 5 years, then I can hate Kidd they did the same thing. and like I said before you would understand were I am coming from if Dirk did the same thing to the Mavs, so yuo can't really understand it all

alexamenos · 12-03-2008, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

because I thought I like Kidd, but I really can't stand him anymore if Raptor fans can hate Vince Carter still after 5 years, then I can hate Kidd they did the same thing. and like I said before you would understand were I am coming from if Dirk did the same thing to the Mavs, so yuo can't really understand it all

You have very serious punctuation issues.

Underdog · 12-03-2008, 11:21 AM

Thanks to the mods for cleaning up the board...