US surge has failed - Iraqi poll

[Janett_Reno]

US surge has failed - Iraqi poll

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6983841.stm

US surge has failed - Iraqi poll
About 70% of Iraqis believe security has deteriorated in the area covered by the US military "surge" of the past six months, an opinion poll suggests.
The survey by the BBC, ABC News and NHK of more than 2,000 people across Iraq also suggests that nearly 60% see attacks on US-led forces as justified.

This rises to 93% among Sunni Muslims compared to 50% for Shia.

The findings come as the top US commander in Iraq, Gen David Petraeus, prepares to address Congress.


He and US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker are due to testify about the effects of the surge and the current situation in Iraq.

The poll suggests that the overall mood in Iraq is as negative as it has been since the US-led invasion in 2003, says BBC world affairs correspondent Nick Childs.

The poll was conducted in more than 450 neighbourhoods across all 18 provinces of Iraq in August, and has a margin of error of + or - 2.5%.

It was commissioned jointly by the BBC, ABC and Japan's NHK.



It is the fourth such poll in which BBC News has been involved, with previous ones conducted in February 2004, November 2005 and February 2007.



It was commissioned with the specific purpose of assessing the effects of the surge as well as tracking longer term trends in Iraq.

Between 67% and 70% of the Iraqis polled believe the surge has hampered conditions for political dialogue, reconstruction and economic development, according to the August 2007 findings.


Only 29% think things will get better in the next year, compared to 64% two years ago.

The number of people wanting coalition forces to leave immediately rose since February's poll but more than half - 53% - still said they should stay until security improved.

The survey reveals two great divides, our correspondent notes.

First, there is the one between relative optimism registered in November 2005 and the gloom of this year's two polls.

In between, there was the deadly bombing of the Shia mosque in Samarra, which unleashed a bitter and deadly sectarianism.

The other great divide is the one now revealed between the Sunni and Shia communities.

While 88% of Sunnis say things are going badly in their lives, 54% of Shia think they are going well.


Dr Toby Dodge, who was involved in running the poll, pointed to the fact that so many Iraqis saw no improvement to their safety since the US deployed an extra 30,000 troops this year, bringing their number up to nearly 170,000.


"I think that's a damning critique and an indication of the pessimism and the violence on the ground," he told the BBC's Radio Five Live.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki insisted on Monday that the surge had had a positive effect in the capital, Baghdad, at least.

Violence had dropped 75%, he told the Iraqi parliament, without giving figures.

At the same time, he warned that Iraqi forces were not ready to take over security from the US military which had, he said, "helped... in a great way in fighting terrorism".

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What i find bad and disturnbing is Maliki want's us to stay and police his country, while he and other's go around making deals with Iran. He is thick and getting thicker with Iran and here we are going to police his country for him as he does like he want's. I think the neocons will actually get pissed at this at some point and say wait a minute, we are working for you Maliki and you are working for Iran. Something just does not add up here. The final answer is, if you stay it is going to be hell and if we leave it is going to be hell in Iraq. Here is the full graph polls...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6983027.stm

[dude1394]

Not according to National Public Radio.

But also others from the New York Times, and, on Monday, a report from NPR’s Anne Garrels embedded with the 82nd Airborne Division in east Baghdad. Interviewed by Melissa Block

BLOCK: And, Anne, let’s talk about some of what General Petraeus said today. One thing he mentioned, the military objectives of the surge are in large measure being met. He talked about a drop in security incidents – his phrase – over the past several weeks. Does that jive with what you’ve been seeing and hearing when you’ve been there?

GARRELS: Yes, it does. Most people - most commanders here say that things have improved. But they also say that the gains are still very fragile. The U.S. is still keeping a lid on sectarian fault lines, and they’ve seen spikes in just as recently as July, so they say there could be spikes again. I mean - but the trend, they say, is very much in the right direction....

A lieutenant colonel here said that we learned the danger of handing over to the Iraqi forces too quickly in the past. And I have to say the response, generally, was that Petraeus gave the most honest assessment, laying out the good and the bad that any American military commander here has done, which was sort of a tacit criticism of Petraeus’ predecessors. One captain said to me, listen, we’re finally engaged in counterinsurgency strategy head on and it’s working. Let us make it work.

For many leading Democrats, making it work is not on the agenda.

[mcsluggo]

In fairness to both of you... you are looking at very different questions

Whether the Iraqi people believe the surge was/is a success versus whether US military commanders believe it to be the case

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

In fairness to both of you... you are looking at very different questions

Whether the Iraqi people believe the surge was/is a success versus whether US military commanders believe it to be the case

I know, just didn't want to start a new thread everytime there is a news article. I was having fun showing how even the bastion of "fairness", NPR dis-agrees with the cherry-picking senators. And this wasn't military commanders, this was an NPR reporter. Someone even a democrat could believe. *sheesh*