Something to prove in the playoffs: Sean Deveney - SportingNews - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

V2M · 04-18-2006, 12:29 PM

Something to prove in the playoffs
By Sean Deveney - SportingNews

Sean Deveney
SportingNews.com

Nine years ago, copies of a tape were making their way through the ranks of college coaches. The 15 minutes of grainy VHS footage showed a teen, built like a stick of Juicy Fruit, standing 6-9 and cruising easily around, past and over opponents in Germany's junior league. International scouting was in its infancy at the time, so few stateside had heard the name Dirk Nowitzki -- plus, the handful of scouts who were in Europe simply did not look for basketball talent in Germany.

Nowitzki's father thought attending college in America would be his son's best route to the NBA, and Dirk's coach, Holger Geschwindner, assembled the tape. Kansas coach Roy Williams was intrigued. Boston College was ready to offer a scholarship. Cal was considered the front-runner.

Lanny Van Eman, a former coach at Oregon State, was doing some consulting at the time and watched the tape. "Here was a 6-9 kid who had a beautiful shot, hit everything from the perimeter," Van Eman says. "He was very athletic, could run the floor, could drive past the defense and looked like he would just keep developing. It looked like the only thing he really needed was his post-up game."

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Much has changed. Even without attending college, Nowitzki caught the eye of NBA scouts and was the ninth pick in the 1998 draft. He has become one of the NBA's best players, the first legitimate MVP candidate in Mavericks history and the team's only All-NBA first-team player. Yet the scouting report on Nowitzki remains remarkably similar to the mental notes Van Eman made nearly a decade ago: Excellent shooter. Great size. Runs the floor. Handles the ball. Lacks a back-to-the-basket post-up game.

It was that weakness, in fact, that stuck with Nowitzki, a 7-footer, after last year's playoffs. He had been awful throughout the postseason, averaging 23.7 points (down from 26.1 in the regular season) and shooting just 40.2 percent from the field. Houston stifled him in the first round by defending him with small forwards Ryan Bowen (6-9) and Tracy McGrady (6-8). The Suns played Shawn Marion (6-7) on Nowitzki.

In the baggy-eyed hours after the Mavericks were eliminated in the conference semifinals by Phoenix, Nowitzki sat at a podium in Dallas and said, "I take a lot of blame myself. I want to be at the point where it doesn't matter who plays me. If they put a smaller guy on me, I want to post up, and if they play me with a big guy, I'll take him outside. I'm going to have another summer of hard work."

Nowitzki took that determination back to Germany in the offseason. The Mavericks are a talented team, and the emphasis coach Avery Johnson has put on defense makes them championship contenders. But Dallas will not have a chance to win a title if Nowitzki continually struggles against smaller defenders in the postseason. In these playoffs, Nowitzki could find himself guarded by players such as the Grizzlies' Shane Battier (6-8), the Spurs' Bruce Bowen (6-7) and Marion. If he doesn't provide consistent offense against smaller defenders, the Mavericks won't win.

That has been the focus of Nowitzki's work, and the results have been impressive. Nowitzki is having his most productive season, with career highs in points (26.6) and shooting percentage (.482). And the one skill he has lacked since his teens -- the post-up game -- is improving.

"I have been here five years," Mavericks assistant Paul Mokeski says, "and every year, we get to the playoffs and they match up smalls on Dirk. I think he has figured out how to handle that. He has always been able to shoot, and that is a big problem when you have a power forward guarding him -- he can take you outside and make his shots. Now, he is better at putting the ball on the floor and going to the basket stronger. He is backing down smaller guys in the paint and shooting over them."

There is no shortage of players, coaches and franchises that enter this postseason with something to prove, but in the coming weeks, Nowitzki and the Mavericks will have the most on the line.

The same question about Nowitzki haunts the franchise: Can regular-season success translate to the playoffs? Dallas has averaged 56 wins over the past five years but has made just one trip to the conference finals. The Mavericks have been labeled soft, and Nowitzki, as the team's mainstay for the past eight seasons, has been given the same tag.

But, in any sport, years' worth of labels are easily peeled off with the strength of one championship run. This season may represent Nowitzki's and the Mavericks' best chance. "We can do it," says Mavericks point guard Jason Terry. "We are deep. We can score. We play defense. And we have the big guy. We're ready."

Avery Johnson sneered, a rare facial condition for a coach normally so smiley. The Mavericks had just been trounced, 114-102, by the Warriors, essentially ending Dallas' hopes of winning the Southwest Division and gaining the West's top seed. Johnson said it was the most disappointing game he ever had coached. The team should give back one-eighty-second of their paychecks, he added. "Seventy-nine games," Johnson said. "I have been waiting 79 games to get some internal leadership. I haven't gotten it yet."

In the locker room, Nowitzki stood wrapped in towels and tried to maintain perspective. "Our offense was not great," he said. "But we don't worry about our offense. It's defense. We have to get our defense ready before the playoffs."

Indeed, the Mavericks' postseason concerns -- leadership and defense are part of that checklist -- go beyond Nowitzki's ability to work in the paint against small forwards. Johnson has stressed defense to this group, and it has responded. Just two years ago, Dallas ranked 28th in points allowed (100.8). That improved to 14th (96.8) in last year's regular season, but the Mavericks allowed an average of 106.8 points in the playoffs.

This year, Dallas' first full season under Johnson, the team is seventh in points allowed (93.2) and 10th in field-goal percentage allowed (.442). But the Mavs have been inconsistent. "When we play defense like we know we can," Nowitzki says, "we can beat anybody. We have to be at our best."

"They have got the defense to win it all, and that is the key," says Warriors assistant coach Mario Elie, who won championships with Rockets center Hakeem Olajuwon and Spurs power forward Tim Duncan. Elie disputes the notion that the Mavericks can't win without inside scoring from Nowitzki.

"Dirk right now is the best four-man in the league," Elie says. "He is not the same kind of player as Tim Duncan, where you throw it to him and run your offense. But they can win with him getting his points outside. I seem to remember Michael (Jordan) and the Bulls winning a lot without having a dominant scorer inside."

True, but the Mavericks don't have Jordan. Other than Jordan's Bulls, every championship team in the past 15 years has had a player capable of taking over in the paint. One reason is obvious: inside shots are high-percentage, especially late in tight games. But a good back-to-the-basket scorer also forces opponents to double-team, which sets up passes for open shots on the perimeter. This is a skill players such as Duncan and Heat center Shaquille O'Neal have mastered. Nowitzki still is learning.

"He is going to get his points, but you probably don't want to double-team him," one Western Conference scout says. "Their offense is still one-on-one play, with isolations and mismatches. They are not set up for him to get the ball inside, then dish it outside. Teams will do the same thing they did last year -- guard him with a smaller player and make him put the ball on the floor. It is still not his strength."

Nowitzki acknowledges that paint play never will be his best skill, and Johnson is careful not to push Nowitzki too hard into the post -- what makes him unique is his combination of size and shooting ability. He makes 40.9 percent of his 3-pointers, and the Mavericks don't want Nowitzki to emphasize a weakness at the expense of a strength.

In the loss to the Warriors, he burned power forward Troy Murphy for 15 points on 6-for-8 shooting in the first quarter. But after the Warriors switched defenders, mostly using Mike Dunleavy on Nowitzki, he was 5-for-14.

Still, Nowitzki appears better equipped to make opponents pay for going small, and, for Mavericks fans, the most heartening sign is an April 7 win in San Antonio (their first win on the Spurs' home floor in 2 1/2 years). Nowitzki, guarded mostly by Bowen, scored 30 points and passed up perimeter jumpers in favor of forays to the rim.

The Mavericks also were able to expose a weakness in the small forward-on-Dirk philosophy -- Josh Howard, the Mavs' slippery small forward, outmaneuvered Duncan and shot 9-for-13 from the field. When Nowitzki is matched against a small, quick defender, it almost always means Howard is guarded by a big, slow defender.

After that game, Mavs guard Jerry Stackhouse told reporters, "I don't think they're going to be able to play Bruce Bowen on Dirk anymore and put Tim Duncan on Josh."

Perhaps. But in the playoffs, the best strategy against Nowitzki still is to guard him with a smaller player. That was his team's undoing in last year's playoffs. He spent a summer working to change it. But this is what he was working toward -- the postseason. The playoffs are here, and if Nowitzki has fixed the longest-standing problem in his offensive game, now it the time to prove it.

Sean Deveney is a staff writer for Sporting News. E-mail him at sdeveney@sportingnews.com.

nashtymavsfan13 · 04-18-2006, 12:30 PM

Ah man, you beat me to it!! I was checking to see if anyone had posted it. Darn, good job

nashtymavsfan13 · 04-18-2006, 12:31 PM

I really like this article a lot. This is the Mavs year, we have to prove ourselves this year.

V2M · 04-18-2006, 12:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nashtymavsfan13

Ah man, you beat me to it!! I was checking to see if anyone had posted it. Darn, good job

Thanks... but evidently digit beat me by a minute posting this in another thread. It's up to the Mods... they can delete this if they want to!

I truly hope we win it all this year for many reasons... and certainly one of which is to just shut so many of these loud media mouths who constantly question Dirk's ability to punish smaller defenders.

nowitzki_prophecy · 04-18-2006, 12:47 PM

Dirk has a much better game against smaller defenders but his pass on the double team is still too slow...

V2M · 04-18-2006, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowitzki_prophecy

Dirk has a much better game against smaller defenders but his pass on the double team is still too slow...

I disagree... the problem is certainly not Dirk's slow passing! I believe, he's no worse at passing than any big man that gets doubled consistently. It's just that we don't have any consistent deep-threats outside of Terry and any consistent cutters to the basket who can catch & finish outside of Josh. With KVH & Devin being out, it hurts us all the more in that aspect.

Dtownsfinest · 04-18-2006, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowitzki_prophecy

Dirk has a much better game against smaller defenders but his pass on the double team is still too slow...

Not sure what you mean by this statement but if you're saying that you think Dirk passes out the double team too late than I agree. There are times when if he would've threw the pass a second or two earlier it would've been a easy bucket for Damp or Josh. That's a lot better than what I saw from Dirk in previous seasons. His passing is coming along nicely.

nowitzki_prophecy · 04-18-2006, 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V2M

I disagree... the problem is certainly not Dirk's slow passing! I believe, he's no worse at passing than any big man that gets doubled consistently. It's just that we don't have any consistent deep-threats outside of Terry and any consistent cutters to the basket who can catch & finish outside of Josh. With KVH & Devin being out, it hurts us all the more in that aspect.

Duncan and KG are much quicker and more accurate... Dirk still seems a bit stund he gets double teamed.
I think Duncan is used to it more,he got double teamed through his entire career while Dirk's post game is something he started developing not so long ago.A few years ago you could even say Dirk's entire game was perimeter offense.
Dirk has the work ethic and passing potential to be a good overall passer,not just out of a double team.It just recently became an issue,so i think in a year or two he'll be much more of a complete player down low.

In regards to Dallas guards not responding quickly enough,i think Terry,Josh and Stack are more than enough... Its a threesome 95 % of the league would have love to have dangering the 3 ball and penetration.
Terry is more of a jump shooter,but stackhouse is an amazing slasher and Josh is becoming just too much too for anybody to handle.A 3pt threat with a quick first step,a spring finish,and a jump shot\floater. Josh is becoming simply unstopable.I'm pretty sure he'll be our second all-star next year.

TheBlueVan · 04-18-2006, 03:21 PM

i have always liked josh howard and thought he had a huge upside. but hes on the verge of taking off i think. him and dirk are a very very nice combo

nowitzki_prophecy · 04-18-2006, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBlueVan

i have always liked josh howard and thought he had a huge upside. but hes on the verge of taking off i think. him and dirk are a very very nice combo

I think that by next year they'll be the best combo in the NBA.

Murphy3 · 04-18-2006, 04:35 PM

Duncan plays with a set of players that really know their roles quite well. There's a good mix of jump shooters and guys that can get to the rim. That obviously helps to make him appear much more comfortable with the double team. But, we've all seen games in the past where he'll get rattled and turn the ball over 6-7 times when the double comes. It's not all about making the pass...

It's also about having someone to pass the ball to. Right now, the Mavs are often too one dimensional in that they rely on alot of one on one play. That doesn't always fit well for a guy that's getting doubled. The Mavs are low on outside shooters and low on guys that Dirk can dish the ball to toward the rim with any great hopes of it ending up in a bucket.

Five-ofan · 04-18-2006, 07:51 PM

A) duncan even with the advantages murph mentioned above isnt a better passer than dirk
B) Dirk and josh best combo in the nba next year? I love dirk. He is my favorite player. Josh is my 3rd favorite player but how in the heck do you think they will be the best duo in the nba? If you mean best forward pairing i might go for that. If (and this is what best duo would actually mean) the best 2 man combo in the league you are nuts. Off the top of my head,
LBJ, Hughes
Shaq, Wade(number 1 as of now imo)
Tmac, Yao(close second and might even have caught the above group if both are healthy)
Kobe, Lamar Odom(i think dirk is better than kobe but odom is better than josh so they are about even)
Nash, marion(not even including amare)

One or maybe two of those are questionable but there is just no way that josh becomes good enough in one year to catch the other teams second best player.

TheBlueVan · 04-18-2006, 09:49 PM

no no, best forward pairing. i dont think thats a stretch either

DirkGoesNuclear · 04-18-2006, 10:22 PM

about Dirk's passing. In the last game (vs Jazz) I saw something I've never seen before from Dirk. He was dribble penetrating into the paint, then at the last moment he dished it to DA who was set up on the corner 3pt line and made the basket. Is he starting to be able to make passes on the move, instead of standstill assists?

atrewsfan · 04-18-2006, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBlueVan

no no, best forward pairing. i dont think thats a stretch either

That's saying a lot when you've got:

1. PHO's SF S. Marion (SF being Marion's natural position) & PF A. Stoudemire
2. IND's SF P. Stojakovic & PF J. O'Neal
3. SA's SF B. Bowen & PF T. Duncan
4. LAC's SF/SG C. Maggette & PF E. Brand
5. MIN's SF/SG Ricky Davis & PF K. Garnett
6. ORL's SF H. Turkoglu & PF D. Howard
7. TOR's SF C. Villanueva & PF C. Bosh

dude1394 · 04-18-2006, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

Not sure what you mean by this statement but if you're saying that you think Dirk passes out the double team too late than I agree. There are times when if he would've threw the pass a second or two earlier it would've been a easy bucket for Damp or Josh. That's a lot better than what I saw from Dirk in previous seasons. His passing is coming along nicely.

I like seeing him wait for the double-team pass out. I think in the pass he made it TOO fast, before the double-team was completely committed and his other teammate had a chance to cut, move etc.

This year I like seeing him be more patient, there isn't a big hurring imo. If doesn't lose the ball then being patient will get a better shot it seems to me.

G-Man · 04-19-2006, 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

I like seeing him wait for the double-team pass out. I think in the past he made it TOO fast, before the double-team was completely committed and his other teammate had a chance to cut, move etc.

This year I like seeing him be more patient, there isn't a big hurrying imo. If doesn't lose the ball then being patient will get a better shot it seems to me.

Because Dirk sets up farther out than Duncan and most guys who draw the double team, it comes to him later. A lot of teams don't run the 2nd defender at him until he makes his move. They like to slap at the ball when he's turning into the lane. He's getting better at handling it, but his DT looks different than Duncan, who is such a quick score threat, the double comes to him as soon as he touches the ball.

nowitzki_prophecy · 04-19-2006, 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Five-ofan

B) Dirk and josh best combo in the nba next year? I love dirk. He is my favorite player. Josh is my 3rd favorite player but how in the heck do you think they will be the best duo in the nba? If you mean best forward pairing i might go for that. If (and this is what best duo would actually mean) the best 2 man combo in the league you are nuts. Off the top of my head,
LBJ, Hughes
Shaq, Wade(number 1 as of now imo)
Tmac, Yao(close second and might even have caught the above group if both are healthy)
Kobe, Lamar Odom(i think dirk is better than kobe but odom is better than josh so they are about even)
Nash, marion(not even including amare)

One or maybe two of those are questionable but there is just no way that josh becomes good enough in one year to catch the other teams second best player.

By next year is a stretch,but by 2-3 years seems very reasonable.. And change it to duo , that's suppose to be obvious.

Well,Josh IS better than Odom,and i think it'll show by next year when Josh is logging more 40 minute games and shoots more.And Dirk isn't better than Kobe.
Larry Hughes???with 15 points a game on 40 percent??you gotta love Josh more than..

By next year i think Dirk and Josh will put up more points than Nash and Marion,but we all know Nash' contribution isn't based on points... But still,in my opinion the MVP and Josh will be combining for 50 points in 2 years.
Shaq will probably be dead or retired in 2 years,his declining is too evident and he became injury prone.
TMac and Yao is a different story,they'll be a mean duo for years to come.
I guess i just have alot of faith in Josh,by how the man plays he'll be averaging 23-24 PPG +8-9 RPG per game in 2-3 years.... That's almost Dirks numbers.

Usually Lurkin · 04-19-2006, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DirkGoesNuclear

about Dirk's passing. In the last game (vs Jazz) I saw something I've never seen before from Dirk. He was dribble penetrating into the paint, then at the last moment he dished it to DA who was set up on the corner 3pt line and made the basket. Is he starting to be able to make passes on the move, instead of standstill assists?

I don't see a lot of games, but Dirk was doing this against SA. Dirk at the top of the key, 4 mavs spread along the baseline. Dirk would pass into the post on the double team, shoot if they didn't double, or drive and dish to the 3. It really was beautiful. And once again, hats off to Sean Elliot (play-by-play for the spurs) for repeatedly complimenting Dirk and the mavs during a spurs broadcast.

Five-ofan · 04-19-2006, 08:17 AM

Dirk is a hell of alot closer to being better than kobe than josh is to being better than odom. Lamar odom may have become the most underrated player in the nba since he went to the lakers. There is not a single thing other than make dive cuts that josh howard can do on a basketball court better than lamar odom can. Josh wil NEVER put up 23-24 and 8-9. There is no way. His ceiling will be about 18 and 7 which is awesome but not close to what you are projecting him too. As for the forward pairing i would probably agree. Largely because dirk is the best pf in the nba and at worst the second best forward in the nba while josh is a good deal better than drew gooden.

In 2 years i think dirk and josh could pass wade and shaq for sure. Hughes was just hurt this year. He is much better than that.