Big Three(s) Not Getting it Done

[MavKikiNYC]

Big Three of Cuban, Nellie, and Lil' Whistle not getting it done either--something's gotta give.


Nelson, Big Three are not getting it done against Kings

12:47 AM CDT on Thursday, April 22, 2004

These are trying days in the winter-sports capital of Texas. The Stars are at The Lake, where their early arrival at the summer haven for NHL flops is becoming an annual event. The Mavericks are halfway to the NBA's version of The Lake, which stretches from Hawaii to the French Riviera to hole-in-the-wall bars.

The Stars are at The Lake because their best players wilted against Colorado in the playoffs. The Mavericks' best players looked much like the Stars' best players in the first two games of a playoff series against Sacramento. If that continues much longer, the Mavericks can make their reservations for The Lake.

The common denominator to the two losses at Sacramento was that the Mavericks did not get enough from their Big Three: Michael Finley, Steve Nash and even Dirk Nowitzki.

Ask the Stars how long a team stays in the playoffs when that happens.

Finley, put in a terrible spot by coach Don Nelson, turned the ball over with 9.9 seconds remaining and the Mavericks down by two in Tuesday's 83-79 loss. That's bad, but not as bad as Finley playing 77 minutes in the series without a free throw and going 8-for-25 from the field.

In a rerun of what happened when these teams met in the playoffs two years ago, Nash is losing the point-guard contest to Mike Bibby. Nash and Bibby have been on the floor together for 75 minutes, 15 seconds. In that span, the Kings have a 24-point advantage. Sacramento had a similar advantage when it eliminated the Mavericks in 2002. Nash won the matchup last spring, and the Mavericks bounced Sacramento.

Nowitzki has done the difficult: score 60 points while shrinking into the background. The Mavericks have been outscored by 18 points with Nowitzki on the floor. He must take some of the blame that falls on Nelson and Finley for the failed final play in Game 2. Trailing 81-79, the Mavericks had the ball with 18.9 seconds remaining. The play started with the ball going to Nowitzki on the perimeter. He decided not to test Chris Webber, beaten into submission in the second half by Eduardo Najera, and handed off to Finley. The ultra-talented Nowitzki is the Mavericks' best player. He had the ball with a favorable matchup. An elite player takes the shot in that situation.

Nelson knows Nowitzki tends to defer to others, particularly in the fourth quarter. Nelson's mistake was giving Nowitzki the option to pass instead of telling him to take over. There are two flaws in Nowitzki's game: a limited low-post repertoire and a lack of assertiveness. The former can be improved. The latter could be a career-long problem.

An assertive player makes sure he takes the final shot. An assertive player talks his way into staying in the game rather than coming out with five fouls in the fourth quarter, as Nowitzki did in the series opener. Nowitzki did not absorb the Nick Van Exel personality during his one-plus seasons with the club.

That does not absolve Nelson. He violated a basic rule of coaching by having a player do what he does not do well with the game on the line. The pick-and-go, with Nash and Nowitzki, remains the Mavericks' best play because it involves two prime scoring options. Instead, the Mavericks ended up with Finley isolated against Peja Stojakovic.
That is not Finley's best setting. Stojakovic joked afterward that "I don't have bonuses for defensive player of the year, so I don't do that very often," but he can guard a one-dimensional player. Stojakovic had the advantage of knowing Finley would go to his left and try a jumper rather than drive to the basket.

Nelson said the Mavericks have had success with this play in endgame situations before. Finley has not been good in these situations. In the regular season, the Mavericks had 16 games in which they were tied or trailed by up to three points during the final minute of regulation or overtime. In those games, Finley was 0-for-5 from the field with one point during the final minute of regulation or overtime. With Stojakovic close, Finley lost control of the ball and the Mavericks' last chance.
"I guess Mike is struggling to the point that you could question whether that play should have been run," Nelson said. "We came away with nothing. Those things will happen. We got the ball where we wanted it, to whom we wanted. It just didn't work out."

That is how teams end up at The Lake for a long summer.

[Murphy3]

I'm sorry, but when Fin and nash are playing like crap, it will have a significant negative impact on Dirk's plus/minus.

When you lose and play almost the entire game, you obviously won't have a positive plus/minus.

If that's all this writer has on dirk, he's reaching for straws. If Dirk's plus/minus was vastly different from the other players on the team that have played heavy minutes, then it might be an indicator of an issue. i.e., Antoine Walker has consistently had poor +/- stats throughout the season compared to other players on the team that play heavy minutes. That might be an indication that the team performs worse when he's on the court.

Obviously, this guy simply does not know how to use stats.

And does anyone actually think the last play was called for anyone other than Fin? Fraley's the only person that I've heard that actually thinks that the play wasn't called for Dirk.

[PubaNWO]

The writer also implies that Dirk should have screwed the coach and took the shot on his own anyways.

I agree Murph that Dirk's plus/minus stat is not accurate because he plays a lot with Fins and Nash who have struggled in the two games.....their numbers would actually be much worse had the Kings not gone cold....

sure the Mavs played better defense and brought more focus on that end, but Peja was just off and Peeler was off.....those are breaks that don't come by too often....

[Murphy3]

What this writer is implying is that one player can is solely responsible for their +/-. That is idiotic. There's 4 other players on the court that directly impact your +/- role. Yes, +/- can be a good tool to use but you have to know in which context to use it. If you would like to examine the impact of the top minute players for the mavs and compare how the team does over an extended period of time, you can get a read on who positively and negatively impacts the team.

[PubaNWO]

Without a doubt and no need for any stats....

Dirk has been the MAVS BEST player in the 2 games....

[grndmstr_c]

Without a doubt and no need for any stats....

Here are some stats anyway:

2004 NBA Playoffs, Top 5 in Efficiency
Player............................................ ...................G.....EFF
1. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks).................2.....38.50
2. Kevin Garnett (Minnesota Timberwolves).....2.....34.50
3. Chris Webber (Sacramento Kings)................2.....30.50
4. Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs)..................2......28.00
5. Kenyon Martin (New Jersey Nets)................2......27.50

[PubaNWO]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

Here are some stats anyway:

2004 NBA Playoffs, Top 5 in Efficiency
Player............................................ ...................G.....EFF
1. Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks).................2.....38.50
2. Kevin Garnett (Minnesota Timberwolves).....2.....34.50
3. Chris Webber (Sacramento Kings)................2.....30.50
4. Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs)..................2......28.00
5. Kenyon Martin (New Jersey Nets)................2......27.50

Impressive!

But Webber only has had 1 good game and 1 good half.

Garnett actually hasn't played all that well. Cassell has.

Martin is never going to be up there.

Duncan has just been solid not excellent....like Dirk!

[Mavs Rule]

IN THE CLUTCH

The Mavericks had 16 regular-season games in which they were tied or trailing by up to three points during the final minute of regulation or overtime. A look at the individual performances during the final minute in those games:
Player FGM-FGA Pts.
Steve Nash 8-14 22
Dirk Nowitzki 4-8 13
Antoine Walker 4-11 10
Travis Best 2-3 6
Shawn Bradley 2-2 4
Marquis Daniels 1-3 2
Josh Howard 0-1 2
Antawn Jamison 1-5 2
Eduardo Najera 1-1 2
Michael Finley 0-5 1

These are the stats that were connected to the article but weren't posted in this thread. I'd say these stats are VERY pertinent. Lesson: Don't go to Fin in the last minute. Nellie admitted he did go to Fin, then defended it as a play that has worked, even though these stats show he is in error.

[bernardos70]

If Dirk "screwed the coach" and took the last shot, he'd be a hypocrite. Didn't he go off on that press conference about how some guys don't buy into nellie's system? What would he be doing by disobeying the coach in a designed play?

Great crunch time stats, Mavs rule.

[mavs_afroman]

Who wrote this crap. Anybody who has wacthed th emavs at all in then last 4 years knows how th eplay they runat the end of the gmae goes. They've been running that hand off play at the end of games ever since Nellie came here and not once have I seen anybody keep the ball.

Secondly, as has been mentioned, +/- stats don't make sense when a player plays nearly the whole game. The mavs have lost by a total of 15 points in both games combined and he has played an average of 45 mins.

[kg_veteran]

Fraley wrote it. He has nothing in his basketball bag.

[Max Power]

I'm suprised that everyone missed this

Nash and Bibby have been on the floor together for 75 minutes, 15 seconds. In that span, the Kings have a 24-point advantage.

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: Max Power
I'm suprised that everyone missed this

Nash has been outplayed so far. No question about that.

In fact, there's really only one position so far where we've outplayed them. I suppose that is both comforting and frightening.

[dallas_esq]

Originally posted by: Mavs Rule
IN THE CLUTCH

Everyone but Finley played well last game. His confidence is not there, but I can't say I wouldn't go to him. He has made big shots in the past. They need to find somebody better though, or put more pressure on the wonder boy rookies to step up and play that spot. Nellie is damned no matter what he does for you people this year!

These are the stats that were connected to the article but weren't posted in this thread. I'd say these stats are VERY pertinent. Lesson: Don't go to Fin in the last minute. Nellie admitted he did go to Fin, then defended it as a play that has worked, even though these stats show he is in error.

[Epitome22]

I don't think we can simply dismiss statistics just because we don't like what they tell us. I have no gripes about Dirk's play, but his plus/minus has been pretty bad so far in the playoffs.

[grndmstr_c]

You can't dismiss statistics, but you have to be careful how you interpret them, and Fraley has failed pitifully in that respect. It hasn't been enough to get the job done in the win column, but nobody on either team has played a better series than Dirk to this point. He needs help from his teammates. The Mavs success depends on the Big 3 playing well, and when two of them are playing their worst basketball of the entire season the team is not going to succeed. It's foolish to put that off on the only one who's brought his game.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: Epitome22
I don't think we can simply dismiss statistics just because we don't like what they tell us. I have no gripes about Dirk's play, but his plus/minus has been pretty bad so far in the playoffs.

grndmstrc said it correctly. you have to know how to use statistics. obviously, fraley is incapable of comprehending and using basketball statistics. he really needed to mix in just a little common sense before posting the mindless garbage that he put together and passed off as an article.

[Bayliss]

Yep. Damn Dirk for averaging 30 points. He should averaging 40. Damn him for averaging 11.5 rebounds. It should be 15 rebounds. Damn him for hitting 93% on his fre throws. It should be 100%. Damn him for hitting 56% of his shots. It should be 70%. Damn him for blocking 3.5 shots. It should be 6. Damn him for averaging 2 steals. It should be 4.

Doesn't matter what stats he puts up. He always has to put up more.

But here's the kicker: if Garnett/Kobe/Duncan put up those stats in the first two games... people would be beside themself exclaiming how great playoff performers they are. Of course, all three of those players have help this year from other members of their team so they haven't needed Dirk's numbers.

[mavsman]

I don't really know how to read the +/- stats, but over all, the Mavs are at -15 over those two games. Dirk didn't play in 7 of those 96 mins. What I saw was that we didn't do too well in the 4th quarter of game one when he was benched because of foul trouble. Dirk ranks currently at #1 in ppg, bpg and double-doubles, in the top ten in fg% and 3pts made and in the top 20 in steals/to, as/to and some others. What more do you expect?

[MavsFanFinley]

These are the stats that were connected to the article but weren't posted in this thread. I'd say these stats are VERY pertinent. Lesson: Don't go to Fin in the last minute. Nellie admitted he did go to Fin, then defended it as a play that has worked, even though these stats show he is in error.

I think it's unfair to use the stats for one season as a sign that Finley can't produce in clutch situations. Obviously, he didn't come through this season when his number was called. However, of those 5 attempts, I can only think of one that could have won the game. The Philly overtime winner where he shot it too long. Were the other 4 attempts last chance shots?

Now I'm not saying he should be the man in those situations so don't go accusing me of suggesting so. Dirk should be first option and only if he's doubled or doesn't feel he can get a good shot off, look to see who has the advantage.

To suggest the Mavs should never look for Finley with a minute or less left is pretty harsh and has me asking if he should even be on the floor then?

I'd rearrange the list like this as I think it shows a better picture of who has the ball in their hands when it counts:

Nash, 8-14
Walker, 4-11
Dirk, 4-8
Jamison, 1-5
Finley, 0-5
Best, 2-3
Daniels, 1-3
Bradley, 2-2
Najera, 1-1
Howard, 0-1

[Murphy3]

I have no problem with fin taking shots late in the game. I don't think he should be the primary option, but he has always been a clutch player.

However, he should not be expected to create on his own on the final possession of the game.

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: Bayliss
Yep. Damn Dirk for averaging 30 points. He should averaging 40. Damn him for averaging 11.5 rebounds. It should be 15 rebounds. Damn him for hitting 93% on his fre throws. It should be 100%. Damn him for hitting 56% of his shots. It should be 70%. Damn him for blocking 3.5 shots. It should be 6. Damn him for averaging 2 steals. It should be 4.

Doesn't matter what stats he puts up. He always has to put up more.

But here's the kicker: if Garnett/Kobe/Duncan put up those stats in the first two games... people would be beside themself exclaiming how great playoff performers they are. Of course, all three of those players have help this year from other members of their team so they haven't needed Dirk's numbers.

It's all about winning. If the mavs were up 2-0 dirk would be on every sports page cover. But the rest of the big three is being outplayed and the idiot nellie is being outcoached. Where the hell is shawn bradley?

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
I have no problem with fin taking shots late in the game. I don't think he should be the primary option, but he has always been a clutch player.

However, he should not be expected to create on his own on the final possession of the game.

Hard to believe that nelson could be this stupid. It's one thing to have a philosophy that doesn't value the best defensive player on the team (good grief) but then to play to a players weakness is insane. Not to mention just plain stupid.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: dude1394

Hard to believe that nelson could be this stupid. It's one thing to have a philosophy that doesn't value the best defensive player on the team (good grief) but then to play to a players weakness is insane. Not to mention just plain stupid.

I can remember a day when dude and I would go at it tooth and nail concerning nellie. Welcome to the dark side.

[dude1394]

I also remember it. This season and the last two games have really been dissapointing for me with respect to nellie. It's chilly over here, I don't like it. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Max Power]

Finley missed a 3 pointer in a last second attempt to tie the Grizzlies on Nov 15th with only 11 seconds left. Fortunately we got the offensive rebound and Walker sent the game to OT but we lost anyway.

Finley missed a 3 in a tie game with 42 seconds left against the Wolves on Nov 29th.

Finley missed a 3 pointer in a last second attempt to tie the Jazz on Jan 28th with only 4 seconds left. Fortunately we got the offensive rebound but Walker missed the 2nd try at a 3 and we lost anyway.

There is no mention of the 3 pointer with 54 seconds left that Finley made against the Hawks because that only brought us within 5. Finley hit ANOTHER 3 pointer with 23 seconds left but again it only brought us within 5 again. I guess a five point game with 54 seconds left is unwinable to the makers of this stat.

One of Fin's "bad" shots was a last second 46 footer he had to take on the Mar 7th game against the Rockets. Of course there is no mention of the TWO assists he got in the final 8 seconds.

I looked but couldn't find the 5th missed shot. But all Finley shot were 3's which is a little disappointing.

[twelli]

Fin has done it before and he will do it again.

Remember this game?

[MavsFanFinley]

Nice work MP. Thanks for posting it here.

I think the 5th missed shot was the one I mentioned earlier. The Philly game that we won in double overtime where Fin took the last shot in regulation. It was a tie game, he ran the clock down, and missed at the buzzer. It was almost identical to the shot in Sacramento.

I believe the play in the Utah game was designed for him, but not sure if the others were.

One of the home games against Sacramento, the game was tied 97-97 and Fin came down and hit a shot at the elbow. However, I think a 1:20 or so was left.

[PubaNWO]

Can we please remember that it should never have gotten to that point where Finley or anyone had to make a last second shot to either tie or win the game.

Mavs had the lead and had already taken the run by the Kings and overcame it.

Mavs missed too many shots and couldn't score from all angles.....this should never happen and AW was not on the floor at the time.....

[Murphy3]

I believe that there's only been 5 occurrences this season in the last :30 seconds of the game where a Mavs player has either hit a game tying shot or the go ahead shot.

Walker has two, I believe.
Dirk has 3.

Two of Dirk's were in the Philly double OT game where he did so both in regulation and double OT. I believe the other was in the most recent New Jersey win where he hit the game winner.

Walker hit a game winner versus the SuperSonics earlier in the year. I don't remember his other game but I know there were two.

[Max Power]

Originally posted by: MavsFanFinley
I think the 5th missed shot was the one I mentioned earlier. The Philly game that we won in double overtime where Fin took the last shot in regulation. It was a tie game, he ran the clock down, and missed at the buzzer. It was almost identical to the shot in Sacramento.

0:48 105-104 Michael Finley missed 4 ft Hook Shot.
0:00 107-107 Michael Finley missed 15 ft Two Point Shot.

Finley missed TWO shots in the 4th quarter of the Philly game. So I guess he was 0-6 instead of 0-5. Of course the 46' shot could be thrown out and that would bring him back to 0-5. If you counted the two shots he made to bring us within 5 then he is 2-5.

[PubaNWO]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
I believe that there's only been 5 occurrences this season in the last :30 seconds of the game where a Mavs player has either hit a game tying shot or the go ahead shot.

Walker has two, I believe.
Dirk has 3.

Two of Dirk's were in the Philly double OT game where he did so both in regulation and double OT. I believe the other was in the most recent New Jersey win where he hit the game winner.

Walker hit a game winner versus the SuperSonics earlier in the year. I don't remember his other game but I know there were two.

Improbable banked 3 to tie the game at Memphis.