Houston, we have a problem - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

DubOverdose · 11-25-2005, 11:12 PM

So how 'bout Houston?

The team that was supposed to be in championship contention.

Swift was supposed to instantly make them better than us, and be a huge acquisition.
....
Now they are 3-10 with the most recent loss coming to the Grizzlies. How many more games can they lose and still make the playoffs? How will they play when TMac comes back? Even with TMac back, they could easily struggle to reincorporate him in to the offense. If they want to equal last season's 51 win total, they have to win 70% of their remainig games. The 8th seed last season was Memphis, hitting the 45 win mark. For the Rockets to equal that, they must win 61% of their remaining games. Can they do it? Are they digging themselves in to a deep hole much too early in the season?

My view:
They have the talent to do much better than this. Even with TMac out, they should be playing 500 ball, but they aren't. If TMac is out for another 7-10 games (and they continue to lose), I think they might quickly find themselves out of the playoff picture barring a collapse of the bottom of the West's teams. When TMac returns, I expect to see them struggle quite a bit. Right now TMac is their leader on the court, but they've been without him and will probably struggle to adapt to his marching orders. I'd love to see another Mavs-Rockets playoff series, but for them to pull through, they will probably have to win a 7 game series against a 'top' team in the West. A possible opponent could be the LA Clippers (calling it really early). Sam I Am will probably have health problems come playoff time and could be the key to the Rockets facing the Mavs for a second straight post season.

I know the season is young, but its far enough along to know the Rockets must turn things around quick or else their post season ambitions will be gone.

aexchange · 11-25-2005, 11:19 PM

houston's overrated. they have no guard play whatsoever. they have a bunch of aging players who have medicore lateral speed and are trying to prevent interior penetration. thats a recipe for disaster.

even with tmac i dont see them being much better than a .500 team. i'm not hating, i just think they went about building their team the wrong way.

kg_veteran · 11-25-2005, 11:32 PM

It's way early, but Luther Head looks like a really solid acquisition for them down the line. That said, the Swift acquisition was WAY overrated, and aex is right. They have no guard play right now to speak of, and it's killing them.

The Crippler · 11-25-2005, 11:43 PM

Swift might be the dumbest player in the league. Head did impress, but a lot of PGs have torched Jet in my very recent memory. Rafer was also a very overrated aquisition. He seems to have a hard time getting along with people and with the other egos on that squad (even Barry has an ego), that's not going to work. Makes me happy to see that they are stuck with some bad contracts. I have nothing but contempt for the Rockets so all of this makes me smile.

Thespiralgoeson · 11-26-2005, 12:08 AM

I was saying from day 1 that Swift wouldn't make a damn bit of difference for them. I still think Rafer Alston was a good pickup for them, and Head is having a nice rookie season. In all honesty, I truly think the Rockets' horrible record is Van Gundy's fault. The plain simple fact is that Yao doesn't take anywhere near enough shots. The other night in their loss to Phoenix he was 3-7 from the field on the entire night! He's the most dominant center in the Western Conference and he only takes seven shots in the entire game... unacceptable. Everytime I watch Houston play Yao looks great for stretches, and then for some reason beyond my understanding, they just stop giving him the ball... He's right there near the basket with his arms in the air just begging for the ball, and the guards never f*cking give it to him... Instead they wear him out by making him run out to the perimeter over and over again to set screens, and it ends up costing them the game. That's a problem that falls squarely on Van Gundy's shoulders.

dirno2000 · 11-26-2005, 12:14 AM

"He's the most dominant center in the Western Conference"

I agree with most of what you said but Marcus Camby may have something to say about this...

I can't see a team with T-Mac and Yao missing the playoffs but they're almost done as a title contender. No team that has to play 3 straight series on the road is coming out of the West and they're already about 8 games behind us and the Spurs.

DubOverdose · 11-26-2005, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

"He's the most dominant center in the Western Conference"

I agree with most of what you said but Marcus Camby may have something to say about this...

I can't see a team with T-Mac and Yao missing the playoffs but they're almost done as a title contender. No team that has to play 3 straight series on the road is coming out of the West and they're already about 8 games behind us and the Spurs.

I can't see them missing the playoffs either until I look at the facts. They'll have to be damn good quick to make sure there will be a spot in the playoffs for them.

4cwebb · 11-26-2005, 12:27 AM

I'm trying to determine whether Yao's games are JVG's fault or Yao's fault. Yao may have size over any other player in the league, but he doesn't have athleticism. In all of the comparisons of Yao to Shaq, this seemed to me to be the item most often overlooked. Shaq had incredible athleticism in his younger days before he let his weight get a little out of control and cause him nagging toe injuries. But you'd rarely see someone block Shaq's dunks near the rim, not only because of his size and power, but because he had the athleticism and quickness to get up and dunk the ball before smaller players could reposition themselves to challenge him.

Perfect example of this is Diop stuffing Yao at the rim in Dallas' last game vs. the Rockets (not to mention Yao catching a lob pass and then blowing a layup). Two prime examples of Yao only having a size advantage, but being at a serious disadvantage in the athleticism department, to other bigs in the NBA.

And, as others have pointed out, Houston did little to solve their guard problems. Mike James and Raefer Alston are, to me, the same player. David Wesley is well over the hill. Luther Head has speed and athleticism, but not true SG size. Derek Anderson is slowed from all of his injuries.

The Swift acquisition was overrated as well. They needed someone with his athleticism, but they needed a player who would use that athleticism on the *defensive* side of the ball, and Swift has rarely done that throughout his career. A guy with those skills could own the defensive glass if he wanted to, but he doesn't have the desire to do so. Rockets could've used a guy like Reggie Evans, who, although undersized, could've provided great help for them on the glass on both ends of the floor and effort on defense.

It'd be a shame for a performer like TMac to miss the playoffs, but it might be beneficial for the Rockets long term if TMac can shut it down early this season and get his injuries properly healed prior to next season. He and Yao aren't old. They've got time on their side.

dirno2000 · 11-26-2005, 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

I can't see them missing the playoffs either until I look at the facts. They'll have to be damn good quick to make sure there will be a spot in the playoffs for them.

It all depends on McGrady...if he gets healthy, they can run off ten in a row and they're right back in it. They showed last year with basically the same team that thay can play at a high level for long periods of time.

JVG's teams are always near the top of the league in defense the problem is that right now they don't have a consistent scorer.

dude1394 · 11-26-2005, 12:29 AM

It seems to me as well that yao doesn't get enough "easy" shots. That being face up jumpers. They hardly ever pick and pop with him. He doesn't get to shoot much from 10 feet where he is quite good.

He's always have to bang around on the blocks like he's shaq. I think it's some sort of Van Gundy mind-set.

What IS van gundy anyway? Why is both he and his brother NBA coaches? They didn't play, did they coach at a college level with some success??

dirno2000 · 11-26-2005, 12:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

It seems to me as well that yao doesn't get enough "easy" shots. That being face up jumpers. They hardly ever pick and pop with him. He doesn't get to shoot much from 10 feet where he is quite good.

He's always have to bang around on the blocks like he's shaq. I think it's some sort of Van Gundy mind-set.

What IS van gundy anyway? Why is both he and his brother NBA coaches? They didn't play, did they coach at a college level with some success??

They were lucky enough to have the Pat Riley aura rub off on them

chumdawg · 11-26-2005, 12:32 AM

If there's anything last year's playoffs taught me, it's that I will never again underestimate Tracy McGrady.

Personally, I think HCA is terribly overrated in the playoffs. The reason the numbers bear out so strongly historically is that the home team is way more often than not the much better team. Put it this way: I think that HCA advantage in itself might swing one series in fifteen or so. The great majority of series do not go the distance anyway, and if it doesn't go the distance then the loser gave up one more on their home court than the other did. Again, HCA in itself = way overrated.

The Rockets definitely need to worry about getting their team in order. But if they make the playoffs--check that: when they make the playoffs--there's not an opponent in the WC that is going to be happy about playing them. TMac is just that good.

Thespiralgoeson · 11-26-2005, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

"He's the most dominant center in the Western Conference"

I agree with most of what you said but Marcus Camby may have something to say about this...

Camby's a streaky player on a hot-streak. Yao > Camby.

alby · 11-26-2005, 01:36 AM

you and me predicted over the summer that Houston is overrated, spiral.. good job to us =]

dirno2000 · 11-26-2005, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

Camby's a streaky player on a hot-streak. Yao > Camby.

Not really...besides rebounds, his numbers this year are about what they were last year.

We can look to last year to see how they performed over a full season. Camby scored one less point, averaged about three more rebounds and two more blocked shots. Yao's also more turnover prone.

Plus he averaged one less foul than Yao...you can't overlook that because Yao's effectiveness is limited by his inability to stay out of foul trouble.

In Yao's defense, he's going to shoot a higher % since Camby takes more 18-footers...he also get's to the line more.

Take out the media hype and Camby vs. Yao is just a matter of personal preference...I'd take Camby.

alby · 11-26-2005, 01:59 PM

Camby is great because you really don't have to draw up any plays for the guy (other than the lobs that Denver throws), he gets his numbers off his length and hustle...

birdsanctuary · 11-26-2005, 01:59 PM

The Rockets will do exactly what they did last year, make one hell of a turn around after the All Star Break....

That's why the Mavs must stay focused and keep up this pace!

alby · 11-26-2005, 02:01 PM

They HAVE to improve or else, but I don't think you will see the same run as last year's.

Thespiralgoeson · 11-26-2005, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

They HAVE to improve or else, but I don't think you will see the same run as last year's.

I think you're right, Alby. As soon as McGrady comes back I'm sure they'll play at least .500 ball from thereon out. If they don't, however, I think it's safe to say that Van Gundy's gone.

Male30Dan · 11-26-2005, 10:57 PM

If McGrady comes back and is truly healthy from then on, I have Houston finishing 7th and upsetting a division winner not named SA in the first round... Don't think this isn't a good team... They simply need their superstar back... Try not to forget how good he is... I can send you tapes if you have!

4cwebb · 11-26-2005, 11:14 PM

Bulls take out Houston tonight, 94-89. Rockets shot under 37% for the entire game. Yao went for 30 (and fouled out Tyson Chandler in less than 25 minutes of actions), all for naught. That hole keeps getting deeper.

Male30Dan · 11-26-2005, 11:17 PM

Yup... McGrady better hurry up and get well soon!

alby · 11-26-2005, 11:53 PM

soon the hole will be too big to dig out of...

they are now 3-11
when is TMac expected back?

IMO, a 5-20ish record will be too much for them to recover from

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:00 AM

A 5-20 record WOULD be too much to recover from, as that would mean they would likely have to finish around 40-17 to make the playoffs, (maybe a bit worse)...

Like I said, McGrady better hurry up and get healthy!

alby · 11-27-2005, 12:17 AM

5-20 seems very realistic for this scrub of a team as of today

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

5-20 seems very realistic for this scrub of a team as of today

You take a scrub team and add a determined McGrady and you have the potential of a scary playoff team... I will say this - Who will want to catch Houston in the first round if they make it out of this funk?

I know I don't want to catch them again in the first round...

alby · 11-27-2005, 12:21 AM

Good point.

But, my point is that they may not even make it there! =]

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

Good point.

But, my point is that they may not even make it there! =]

Only time will tell!

DubOverdose · 11-27-2005, 12:48 AM

I heard TMac should be out until after the 1st week in December. My guess is that it will take longer. He already came back once, but it was too soon. The team will probably let him recover until he's 100% and not risk destroying their franchise and TMac's career. But remember, once he comes back, they have to get on track. The new players have to learn how to get him the ball, how to run the O, etc.

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

I heard TMac should be out until after the 1st week in December. My guess is that it will take longer. He already came back once, but it was too soon. The team will probably let him recover until he's 100% and not risk destroying their franchise and TMac's career. But remember, once he comes back, they have to get on track. The new players have to learn how to get him the ball, how to run the O, etc.

If it takes longer than the first week in December, Houston likely doesn't make the playoffs barring an unbelievable turnaround. Regarding T-Mac, getting him the ball has never been a problem. With zilch as a PG, Houston will have the ball in T-Mac's hands the majority of the time anyway...

alby · 11-27-2005, 03:12 AM

Let's say its December 8th vs the Kings in Sacramento.

they will have already played 17 games
they will have 65 games left

IMO they would have to win close to 50 of those 65 games to make any noise in the West.

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

Let's say its December 8th vs the Kings in Sacramento.

they will have already played 17 games
they will have 65 games left

IMO they would have to win close to 50 of those 65 games to make any noise in the West.

They don't need to make noise... 50 wins is NOT necessary... All they need is a ticket to the playoffs to cause some higher seed team a lot of trouble. At this point, they are EXPECTING to get the 7th or 8th seed... They just want that and will be mighty hungry if they get it.

EricaLubarsky · 11-27-2005, 12:07 PM

They just need the 8th seed to give the Mavs some friction in the first round of the playoffs.

Male30Dan · 11-27-2005, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

They just need the 8th seed to give the Mavs some friction in the first round of the playoffs.

Hahaha... Nice!

I don't see it happening personally, but it sure would be sweet to have homecourt up to the finals, (and potentially throughout).

Five-ofan · 11-28-2005, 03:26 AM

I think they have problems but lets not be too quick to judge a team without its superstar. I could see the mavs being something like 3-10 without Dirk. They wouldnt win 40 without him over a whole season if they got that close. I think the mavs are a better team but when the player a team is built around goes down it changes everyones role and messes up the team. About Yao, Ive heard well he doesnt demand the ball. What do you want him to do, go chase skip's dumb""" around to get the ball? He gets position and puts his hand up. That isnt quite demanding but its asking and the team should respond.

alby · 11-28-2005, 04:14 AM

they also need Rafer Alston back as well, have you guys seen David Wesley run the point for them? I mean, ouch.

4cwebb · 11-28-2005, 05:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

they also need Rafer Alston back as well, have you guys seen David Wesley run the point for them? I mean, ouch.

I didn't realize that Alston was hurt. Didn't he play against the Mavs (I didn't get to watch or listen to that entire game, and I wasn't really concentrating on whether or not he was playing)?

DubOverdose · 11-28-2005, 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4cwebb

I didn't realize that Alston was hurt. Didn't he play against the Mavs (I didn't get to watch or listen to that entire game, and I wasn't really concentrating on whether or not he was playing)?

Nope Alston was out.

Dtownsfinest · 11-28-2005, 12:34 PM

Until T-Mac and Skip come back I don't really take much into what the Rockets do.

alby · 11-28-2005, 12:39 PM

yup, do not discount rafer's injury.

that's like us losing Dirk and JET for an extended period of time...