2018 NBA Draft

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I don't understand the fear, I guess. Especially itemized to one stretch of a shooting slump. Shooters go through slumps. Like, would you move him down or up your draftboard based on the length of a shooting slump he had as a high school senior? Do you even care if he had a shooting slump as a high school senior?

I know those are kinda silly questions, but I don't know his high school #s in terms of a slump or not. I assume he had some slumps & moved past them. Just like I assume he'll move past this slump too. Seems like an overreaction.

I do understand the fear because Trae Young might have one of the lowest floors of any players in this draft & if you're risk adverse, then you tend to want to stay away.

I like what Seth Greenberg said about Trae Young the best. "He's not Steph Curry, but he is Steph Curry-esque."

I should clarify it's not just because of the shooting slump. It's what prompted me to look a little more into him and I didn't necessarily like what I saw. He has great numbers at face value but he's also shooting 20fg's a game. Mikal, in my example, is ultra efficient with over 61%TS. Trae could be trying to do too much or could be feeling pressure from all the hype who knows. I don't watch near enough to make a real informed opinion. But according to recent articles he didn't go to Texas Tech, because he said "they need more talent". So he chose to go to Oklahoma yet Tech is playing much better than Oklahoma while presumably less talented. I'd have to look into their teams but he's just starting to show some flags I'm not thrilled with, and I don't think he would fit well with DSJ either. I wish he would go off just so he could get picked before us in the event we don't finish with a top 3-4 pick. But for now I have him in the same group as Mikal and Sexton and I'd prolly take him last of the group personally.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Trae is still really efficient, not saying he's not. But if you take him as bpa he really better be bpa since we would have 2 guys who are best with the ball in their hands and are pretty small to be playing off ball. And neither will be making an all defense team as well.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

I should clarify it's not just because of the shooting slump. It's what prompted me to look a little more into him and I didn't necessarily like what I saw. He has great numbers at face value but he's also shooting 20fg's a game. Mikal, in my example, is ultra efficient with over 61%TS. Trae could be trying to do too much or could be feeling pressure from all the hype who knows. I don't watch near enough to make a real informed opinion. But according to recent articles he didn't go to Texas Tech, because he said "they need more talent". So he chose to go to Oklahoma yet Tech is playing much better than Oklahoma while presumably less talented. I'd have to look into their teams but he's just starting to show some flags I'm not thrilled with, and I don't think he would fit well with DSJ either. I wish he would go off just so he could get picked before us in the event we don't finish with a top 3-4 pick. But for now I have him in the same group as Mikal and Sexton and I'd prolly take him last of the group personally.

To my understanding he chose Oklahoma because he grew up 5 minutes from the University & he practiced on that court all the time. His current roster isn't very talented at all. No other NBA prospects & the only other ESPN100 players on his team are Soph Kameron McGusty (46) and Soph/red-shirt freshman Kristian Doolittle (69)... Doolittle barely sees the floor & missed half the season.

I think what Young was saying is for him to go to Texas Tech, instead of Oklahoma that he considers home, they'd have to be considerably more talented in order to persuade him & they were not in his estimation.


Edit: Also I think the pressure he feels isn't from the hype. It's from not having any teammates who can take any pressure off of him. If they take Young out of the game, they get behind. That's why he plays 35 mins per game, which is also why his FGA are so high. And, he's not a secret anymore. He's the entire focus of the opposition's defense. They sell out to stop him & he really doesn't have any help. It's an adjustment for him.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I just looked through about a dozen or so mock drafts that have been updated in the last week. It's pretty clear Chandler Hutchinson will not be there in the second round. Virtually everyone but nbadraft & tankathon have him in the mid-teens of the 1st round. Some have him in the late lottery.

Unfortunately, most have Keita Bates-Diop in the 1st round too. A few have him in that mid teens area with Hutchinson.

On the brightside, looks like everyone is sleeping on Robert Franks.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Boise State is going to be on ESPNU tonight vs #24 Nevada. Good opportunity to see what kind of defender Chandler Hutchinson is.

[Underdog]

Where does Trae even rank as the best player available? I mean, he can score, but so can a lot of guys... I'm certainly not taking him over Ayton or Doncic, can't really see him being a significantly better scorer than Bagley or a healthy Porter. When you consider overall impact to the game, is he going to get you more wins than Jaren Jackson Jr? To me it doesn't seem like Young becomes a no-brainer BPA until you get to Bamba, and at that point he'll probably already be off the board. It's a problem that solves itself.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Where does Trae even rank as the best player available? I mean, he can score, but so can a lot of guys... I'm certainly not taking him over Ayton or Doncic, can't really see him being a significantly better scorer than Bagley or a healthy Porter. When you consider overall impact to the game, is he going to get you more wins than Jaren Jackson Jr? To me it doesn't seem like Young becomes a no-brainer BPA until you get to Bamba, and at that point he'll probably already be off the board. It's a problem that solves itself.

Bingo. I touched on it, but BPA is so much harder to apply to a rebuilding NBA team that already has some young pieces in place. It would be incredibly tough for me to take Trae Young over those same guys. I also said it probably begins with Bamba.

I did forget to mention that in addition to hopefully the Mavs not having the issue (re. we are #1 and can simply take Ayton or our pick - I'd be wholly pissed off if we took Young #1 lol), that someone else may value him much higher due to their need for such a guard.

[saclare]

With Trae Young, the challenge will be dissecting whether he is putting up insane numbers on a bad team, or if that bad team is also the reason he may go through these slumps.

Any coach worth his salt is going to throw everything at him. Two defenders, bigger/longer defenders, traps, etc. Make the other players on that roster beat you.

It's the Malik Monk issue that I think trapped him in Norman. Remember Monk was heavily pressed, and subsequently wrongly scrutinized for choosing Kentucky. It simply was his best option to lock in his draft status. Young had legacy at Texas Tech, and almost went there. I think he'd fit outstandingly there and they'd be real threats to win it all, if they aren't already.

I just see a real issue with Trae Young in the NBA going up against bigger, quicker guards than he sees in college. Of course that a generalization when looking at draft prospects as a whole, but there's no way in hell his is a legit 6'2...

To me, BPA really doesn't apply to the NBA draft process. Doubly so if you are in the Mavs position, and have a cornerstone at PG that needs the ball in his hands, as well as improvement to his defensive game. DSJ + TY backcourt would be incredible offensively and most likely borderline unplayable on defense.

The comparisons to Lillard and McCollum are probably spot on offensively. Defensively, those two are both bigger guards than Smith Jr. and Young. Again, I do not believe Trae Young is 6'2.

It's tough. I do think he has traits of Steph. I think Steph was more advanced defensively at the same age, but these are prospects that can always grow parts of their game. some of the same weaknesses applied to Steph, but they always came with the risk.

The challenge for the Mavs front office will be one of fit, and one of risk. What is the long term fit considering DSJ is a cornerstone? And what is the risk when compared to similarly rated prospects? Say the risk is similar to a Mo Bamba or Jaren Jackson Jr. or other...tough call that we hopefully won't have to make.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Interesting question: Who's the one player you hope the Mavs don't draft?

For me it's Michael Porter Jr. I'd take anyone over him. Porter Jr will be out of the league in 5 years with back injuries, imo. I can't see Porter Jr ever sniffing All Star level with a discectomy. I mean, I guess it's possible, but I just see Sam Bowie & Greg Oden 2.0 with this kid.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Interesting question: Who's the one player you hope the Mavs don't draft?

For me it's Michael Porter Jr. I'd take anyone over him. Porter Jr will be out of the league in 5 years with back injuries, imo. I can't see Porter Jr ever sniffing All Star level with a discectomy. I mean, I guess it's possible, but I just see Sam Bowie & Greg Oden 2.0 with this kid.

It's not one player for me right now. It's drafting outside the top 5 and missing out on Ayton, Doncic, Porter, Bagley, and JJJ. To me there is a drop off after them. I could handle Bamba, depending on how he looks to close the year and combine. But anything outside of them for me right now is an absolute loss of a tank season.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

It's not one player for me right now. It's drafting outside the top 5 and missing out on Ayton, Doncic, Porter, Bagley, and JJJ. To me there is a drop off after them. I could handle Bamba, depending on how he looks to close the year and combine. But anything outside of them for me right now is an absolute loss of a tank season.

Bagley scares me too! His youth & where everyone is projecting him i.e. his upside leaves a high ceiling for now... But I see a guy who can't defend, can't shoot at the NBA level, and basically is the college version of Greg Monroe, compiling rebounds & scoring near the basket vs 6-6 guys that don't come close to representing NBA competition. Not to mention having the advantage of doing so in virtually every game while playing for the more talented/better team, which definitely won't be the case his first few seasons in the league.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Didn't know the Texas Tech connection to Trae Young.

[BPo001]

I read Trae Young was wearing a Tech hat when he made the comments about them not being talented enough. He took off the Tech hat and put on an OU hat.

[mac222b]

Bagley is the guy I just cant get a feel for and would be least excited about. I know he puts up huge numbers but his game is just so ill- defined to me. Porter scares me. I would be more excited for Ayton, Donic, Jackson or Bamba then Young.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Bagley is the guy I just cant get a feel for and would be least excited about. I know he puts up huge numbers but his game is just so ill- defined to me. Porter scares me. I would be more excited for Ayton, Donic, Jackson or Bamba then Young.

I'm right there with you on Bagley -- the numbers look good (aside from FTs), but when I watch him I don't really see anything special... Porter, on the other hand, is not a guy you can really project until he gets healthy, but I fully trust the Mavs medical/training staff to make the right call on him.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yeah, I'd honestly choose Jaren Jackson and maybe even Bamba over Bagley, but it's not like he is leftover prospect. If the Mavs picked him, then I'd be fine with it.

I'm not as crazy about Doncic as some because of his lack of athleticism/quickness. I think his size can make up for that and his insane talent. But if he gets frustrated in one on one situations, then it could spell a bit of trouble. I mean, he isn't just kinda slow...he looks like he runs with anvils.

[tap2390]

Depending on how you view Porter Jr., this draft is basically 6 or 7 blue chip guys deep:

Ayton
Doncic
Bamba
Bagley
Porter
Young
Jackson

If you get one of those guys I think you leave pretty happy.

[saclare]

I think Luka Doncic is what Kyle Collinsworth dreams about being as a player lol

[EricaLubarsky]

I think Bagley will be solid, but I think he'll end up being more of a Rasheed than a KG or Dirk.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I haven't heard a single positive word said about Bagley's defense since I started paying attention to this draft like 2 months ago, and I read at least one article or watch one video or listen to one podcast like every day. I mean, that alone scares me about Bagley. Literally, no one thinks he can defend.

Greg Monroe is a super fair comp for him.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

I haven't heard a single positive word said about Bagley's defense since I started paying attention to this draft like 2 months ago, and I read at least one article or watch one video or listen to one podcast like every day. I mean, that alone scares me about Bagley. Literally, no one thinks he can defend.

Greg Monroe is a super fair comp for him.

Care to elaborate? Bagley has the ability to spread the floor and is really athletic for his size. I admit I haven't watched Monroe a lot, but I was under the impression he doesn't stray far from the basket. Both are good rebounders, but Bagley also seems to possess enough skill to take a defensive rebound coast to coast which is something I imagine Monroe doesn't do much of.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Care to elaborate? Bagley has the ability to spread the floor and is really athletic for his size. I admit I haven't watched Monroe a lot, but I was under the impression he doesn't stray far from the basket. Both are good rebounders, but Bagley also seems to possess enough skill to take a defensive rebound coast to coast which is something I imagine Monroe doesn't do much of.

I don't know where this myth that Bagley III is a good shooter comes from. He's shooting 62% on FTs this year, and he gets 6.8 FTA per game. That's not a fluke. He's tied for the 22nd highest scorer in the NCAA, and for perspective, he has the 2nd lowest FT% of any of college's top 100 scorers, and only 6 players shoot below 70% & most shoot over 80%.

Greg Monroe is a career 70.4% FT shooter, who shot 62.2% his rookie year (and 67.7% in college).

From NBAdraftroom:

He has elite coordination and speed for his size and he'll be a match-up nightmare once he gets a consistent jump shot

Also from NBAdraftroom:

He isn't much of a rim protector and tends to shy away from contact and fails to challenge shots at the rim

^^^The same is often said of Greg Monroe...

From nbadraft.net's scouting report of Monroe

Body strength is a question mark. Tends to avoid contact

Taken from scouting reports on Bagley & Monroe coming out of college

Bagley

Has stretch big potential

Monroe

Nice touch on his jumper with range out to the three-point area

Monroe shot 27.3% from 3 in college. Bagley shoots 35.4%. Monroe is 0 for 12 for 3s in his NBA career.

From a Washington Post article on this year's bigs back in January

Bagley III has been dominant in the post, but scouts are wary of his jump-shooting game

Bagley has a bag of tricks for post moves and has spent his freshman year facing off against undersized opponents. But he’s struggled against those same smaller forwards when guarding the perimeter. And though he’s excelling in Duke’s classical three-guard, two-forward set, his frame translates as a huge small forward or a developing center. In short, the guy with the 7-foot wingspan is somehow stuck between positions

upon entering the league, there are some constants, players and coaches said. Playing consistent defense is chief among them... The NBA is less reliant on blocks than ever, and depends on forwards and centers to defend point guards in pick-and-roll situations, or to contest perimeter shots

I could go on, but the main point is a lot of scouts said Monroe had a good handle, good face up game, strong rebounder and the potential to become a good low post scorer, even a stretch 4 at the next level. Yet, they had major concerns about his defensive abilities, even his defensive effort at times. Even from college you could see he was projected as a one-way player. And one thing Monroe does have that they don't say about Bagley is Monroe is an exceptional passer. I've heard the opposite about Bagley. Some think he's a black hole & doesn't look for his teammates enough.

This is obviously a critical look at Bagley. But, it's fair imo. Sure, he has a lot of upside & he might be able to correct some of these concerns. But, can he overcome all of this???

Personally, I don't think so. I think he's a one-dimensional player. I don't think he can handle perimeter defense or will develop into a player who can. He's definitely not JJJ in that respect. He may develop a jump shot, especially given the emphasis in today's game, but I don't think he'll ever be elite, and I think it's super fair to question whether his strengths will be as pronounced against players in the NBA who possess his same quickness, size & athleticism. You negate that advantage & what can Bagley III fall back on?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

Care to elaborate? Bagley has the ability to spread the floor and is really athletic for his size. I admit I haven't watched Monroe a lot, but I was under the impression he doesn't stray far from the basket. Both are good rebounders, but Bagley also seems to possess enough skill to take a defensive rebound coast to coast which is something I imagine Monroe doesn't do much of.

I think he's talking defense. Monroe is a skilled offensive player who can't defend Dirk with a twisted ankle and two broken fingers.

[mac222b]

Bagley at least is potentially an ok defender. He’s a marvelous athlete. Is It a maturity, effort or that he hasn’t learned the skills thing? Or some of all 3?I mean if Coach K can’t get him to play defense that’s not exactly a great sign

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Bagley at least is potentially an ok defender. He’s a marvelous athlete. Is It a maturity, effort or that he hasn’t learned the skills thing? Or some of all 3?I mean if Coach K can’t get him to play defense that’s not exactly a great sign

I think it's a combination of ability & never having done it before. He wasn't guarding perimeter players in high school, but neither was Jaren Jackson Jr. JJJ has shown more natural ability.

Can you coach Bagley up? Probably, but what happens when the assignments turn from guarding Lonnie Walker to handling Russell Westbrook on a PnR?

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Let's be clear too. Greg Monroe was a fine NBA player. He basically averaged a double double for 5 years.

I'm just saying are we going to be happy with our top 5(ish) pick this year, if all he amounts to is Greg Monroe?

I'm going to be sick to my stomach if Jaren Jackson Jr turns into The Brow 2.0, and Ayton & Doncic are both monsters too. Because I don't see Bagley as a bust. I just don't see him as a dominant NBA player. There's scouts who think Wendell Carter Jr is the better prospect.

[Underdog]

@LiamDoyleNBA: Bagley with bad footwork on the perimeter. His production is great but the flaws are real, limit his upside. How many 5’s can’t guard the rim or the perimeter, and can’t shoot 3’s? https://twitter.com/LiamDoyleNBA/sta...16807064178688

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

@LiamDoyleNBA: Bagley with bad footwork on the perimeter. His production is great but the flaws are real, limit his upside. How many 5’s can’t guard the rim or the perimeter, and can’t shoot 3’s? https://twitter.com/LiamDoyleNBA/sta...16807064178688

Nice guy to follow.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

@LiamDoyleNBA: Bagley with bad footwork on the perimeter. His production is great but the flaws are real, limit his upside. How many 5’s can’t guard the rim or the perimeter, and can’t shoot 3’s? https://twitter.com/LiamDoyleNBA/sta...16807064178688

While that was terrible defense on that play, that is easy to work with from a coaching perspective, same with trainers to get the hips more fluid. That being said, simply depends where you are drafting and who else is on the board who is a little more advanced.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

ORL was up on DET 97-96 w/ 1:20 left in the 4th qtr... They played tight all game. Really thought ORL was gonna pull this one out. Darn.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

BKN too. Smh... BKN was up 95-93 on IND w/ 3:37 to go in the 4th qtr. The Nets were playing IND tough all night. D'Angelo Russell w/ 18 pts 9 asst. Thought BKN might pull out the W. That's two close calls tonight. Rats!!

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Dang! MEM nearly fooled around and beat OKC. Smh...

Chandler Parsons sighting tonight too.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

This Elfrid Payton/Devin Booker tandem is looking like it could work...

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

This Elfrid Payton/Devin Booker tandem is looking like it could work...

Booker 28 pts
Payton 13 pts 12 asst 11 rebs

2nd round pick for a 23 yr old who puts up triple doubles... Wish the Mavs had gotten in on that. Payton's other 2 games 29 pts 8 rebs 5 asst and 19 pts 9 asst 6 rebs... all for a 2nd round pick. SMH.

[Underdog]

@tankathon: Hawks, Magic, Nets, Knicks, Lakers, Bulls, Kings, and Grizzlies all lost tonight. Suns will probably lose to the Jazz too.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

I don't know about that. PHX 71 UTH 72 at the end of 3...

Jazz down Rubio tonight & they're missing Hood... PHX has Booker back tonight & he already has 23 pts

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Kentucky down 6 last 3 minutes vs Auburn & Calipari has Kevin Knox sitting for defense reasons... Hmmmm...

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Holy Cow. Is anyone else watching this Nevada/Boise State game?

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Holy Cow. Is anyone else watching this Nevada/Boise State game?

This was about Kendall Stephens, 6-7 Senior SG from Nevada. Kid can flat out shoot the rock. Was the ESPN100 65th ranked player coming out of high school. Signed with Purdue & transferred to Nevada after his Junior year.

Really doesn't do anything else. He's not a guy that would get drafted. He's literally just a 3 point shooter. I even saw him on one screen running the baseline where he was completely wide open underneath the basket, but he was in autopilot mode & just kept on running to the corner. A few minutes later the exact same thing happened, a teammate saw him & made the pass, Stephens was still on autopilot mode & the pass sailed out of bounds. So, he doesn't even seem all that aware of situational offense.

That said, he has incredible range. He was 4/4 on 3s in the first half & 3 of them were 4-5 feet behind the NBA 3-point line. He has no fear. He just catches & shoots. The announcers said his coach, Eric Musselman (former Warriors & Kings coach), said he doesn't just have the green light, he has the neon green light to shoot.

I definitely would be in favor of extending him an invite to summer camp & seeing how he can develop. I'm pretty sure the kid isn't an NBA player because he's very lanky & not exceptionally athletic. But, I'm also positive he's going to be playing professional basketball somewhere overseas. That kind of range, quick release, no fear/hesitation, and size. Legit shooter.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

This was about Kendall Stephens, 6-7 Senior SG from Nevada. Kid can flat out shoot the rock. Was the ESPN100 65th ranked player coming out of high school. Signed with Purdue & transferred to Nevada after his Junior year.

Really doesn't do anything else. He's not a guy that would get drafted. He's literally just a 3 point shooter. I even saw him on one screen running the baseline where he was completely wide open underneath the basket, but he was in autopilot mode & just kept on running to the corner. A few minutes later the exact same thing happened, a teammate saw him & made the pass, Stephens was still on autopilot mode & the pass sailed out of bounds. So, he doesn't even seem all that aware of situational offense.

That said, he has incredible range. He was 4/4 on 3s in the first half & 3 of them were 4-5 feet behind the NBA 3-point line. He has no fear. He just catches & shoots. The announcers said his coach, Eric Musselman (former Warriors & Kings coach), said he doesn't just have the green light, he has the neon green light to shoot.

I definitely would be in favor of extending him an invite to summer camp & seeing how he can develop. I'm pretty sure the kid isn't an NBA player because he's very lanky & not exceptionally athletic. But, I'm also positive he's going to be playing professional basketball somewhere overseas. That kind of range, quick release, no fear/hesitation, and size. Legit shooter.

nbadraft.net just made Kendall Stephens their last player taken in their latest mock draft update.

Feeling like I have an eye for talent or something over here. Lol.