Mavs Free Agency 11/12

[41mvp]

Originally Posted by CATCH-17

If he doesn't we won't make it back to the Finals.

right;/

[dalger]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Two things:

1. I don't understand how you can say that he's a good fit with Dirk and Marion when he can't be on the floor with both of them.

sefant answered it for me:

Originally Posted by sefant77

He is a good fit because this three could pull off a great forward rotation, keeping everyones minutes low, winning games and going fresh into the playoffs. He proved last november and december that he (finally) adjusted his game and he was a great fit (and 2nd best Mavs in december).

Caron's a great complement to Dirk and Marion, keeping them fresh while offering decent contributions himself. Right now, we're looking at Brewer and Cardinal (or any other cheap player that's available) as our complements. Not too promising. I like Brewer, but I don't want to count on him being able to deliver more than could be reasonably expected.

Originally Posted by jthig32

2. I'ts not 6 million, it's 12 million. And keep in mind that we're going to have to stay under the Luxury Tax twice in the next five years or face even more ridiculous penalties. You can no longer just say "I really don't want to lose him, eff it we'll give him an extra year even though we really don't want to".

Wouldn't it be awfully disappointing to see Cubes and Donnie worry about paying dollar-for-dollar luxury tax and staying under the luxury tax in two of the next five seasons RIGHT NOW?

This upcoming season could very well be our final campaign. Both Kidd and Jet's contracts are set to expire and who knows what's going to happen with these two guys after next summer. Dirk and Marion are getting older as well.

Shouldn't we be willing to pay an additional $6 million (or $12 million) to give us our best shot one more time and worry about saving money when our current boys in blue are done?

Looking at Cuban's spending habits over the years, I just don't think we want to be tight-fisted now and not take full advantage of the final chapters of Dirk's and the entire team's prime.

[Kidd Karma]

Keeping in mind that lux tax don't hit the hay until 2013-14. I'd go all in the next 2 years. Tyson, Caron, maybe a point guard insurance guy, I don't know if Barea would stick around on a 2 year deal. Cuban's always been a guy spending if it makes sense. Now does Haywood make sense with a resigned Chandler, in the past, probably not, but with an amnesty in his back pocket, he may keep Haywood around at least the next year, possibly 2, before the lux tax penalties kick in. Barea's going to be an interesting FA for us, as he proved his worth during the playoffs, driving and essentially being a pest. With Kidd, can Barea be a regular season plus for us, taking on more of Kidd's minutes, knowing opposing players will get him into the post. Or do we forgo Barea, or parlay him into a sign and trade for something else. I think Chandler and Butler are 2 players we need back. Barea can be replaced with vet, then again, watching Bibby in the Finals.....sort of leads me to giving Barea a 3rd year and get into the 1.50 per buck lux tax territory.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by dalger

Wouldn't it be awfully disappointing to see Cubes and Donnie worry about paying dollar-for-dollar luxury tax and staying under the luxury tax in two of the next five seasons RIGHT NOW?

It would be disappointing if they worry about paying tax for a front line player. I'm fine if they worry about luxury tax for a backup, which is what Butler would be. He's a backup, coming off a major injury, headed into "past his prime" territory, that only plays one position.

Keep in mind that while you may not be ready to trust Brewer, the Mavs gave him a three year (2.5 if you want to be technical) deal at over 3 mil a season. They clearly believe in him. And I think it's fairly clear that they think of him mostly as a SF. Signing Butler pushes Brewer out of the rotation completely.

So no, I'm not willing to essentially "grin and bear it" by giving Butler a second year in order to keep him for this coming season.

[grndmstr_c]

The potential that exists for Dallas to re-sign Cardinal and Stevenson to short-term and/or low-dollar deals without using the MLE is also going to play into their decision making on Caron, since both of those guys can play SF. I wouldn't expect either to be higher than 3rd on the depth chart at that position, but if you've got faith in Corey to take a step forward (and I suspect jthig's right in thinking that the Mavs do), then as a GM you're not going to have any problem with a Marion/Brewer/(Stevenson and/or Cardinal) SF rotation.

[vinylstar]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Cuban's always been a guy spending if it makes sense.

Let's not get crazy here...

[dalger]

Originally Posted by jthig32

It would be disappointing if they worry about paying tax for a front line player. I'm fine if they worry about luxury tax for a backup, which is what Butler would be. He's a backup, coming off a major injury, headed into "past his prime" territory, that only plays one position.

Keep in mind that while you may not be ready to trust Brewer, the Mavs gave him a three year (2.5 if you want to be technical) deal at over 3 mil a season. They clearly believe in him. And I think it's fairly clear that they think of him mostly as a SF. Signing Butler pushes Brewer out of the rotation completely.

So no, I'm not willing to essentially "grin and bear it" by giving Butler a second year in order to keep him for this coming season.

We'll see what the FO thinks of it eventually. The bolded part, while technically accurate, is a rather negative description of Caron that doesn't acknowledge the contributions he made last season and could be able to make for another year or even two at a reasonable price. Even a backup player past his prime can still be a decent contributor.

The FO and we all believed in Roddy too, and it simply didn't work out. Hoping for a young player to make it to the next level and turn into an important piece of the puzzle is one way to approach what could be this team's final run. At this point, though, I still don't believe that this hope is likely to become reality and thus make Caron redundant. It could just as likely turn out to be an illusion.

Again, we'll see how this whole thing turns out. It's going to be an interesting three weeks one way or the other.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Keep in mind that while you may not be ready to trust Brewer, the Mavs gave him a three year (2.5 if you want to be technical) deal at over 3 mil a season. They clearly believe in him. And I think it's fairly clear that they think of him mostly as a SF. Signing Butler pushes Brewer out of the rotation completely.

And Brewer as SF works just in certain matchups. Too bad the guy doesnt have the handles to play the 2. Playing SF (and against them), the guy is 188lbs and wasnt able to bulk up since college. He misses in average ~30lbs against SF opponents. And then there are the Lebrons and Anthonys. And without Butler and Marion (bench, injuried, foul trouble) your options are Brewer, Cardinal, or maybe an undersized Stevenson (lets not remember: his numbers as SF are terrible).

And Butler wouldnt be a "backup player". He would be part of a three headed forward rotation scratching on the 30min mark.

I like Marion/Butler-Dirk/Marion with Brewer as a wildcard if they need an SG or SF or if Butler/Marion are injuried. But hell no, i dont want to have a Marion/Brewer/Cardinal SF rotation. Marion is freaking 33 years old and i want to contend for the next three years. He need a valid backup and thats not Brewer.

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

The potential that exists for Dallas to re-sign Cardinal and Stevenson to short-term and/or low-dollar deals without using the MLE is also going to play into their decision making on Caron, since both of those guys can play SF. I wouldn't expect either to be higher than 3rd on the depth chart at that position, but if you've got faith in Corey to take a step forward (and I suspect jthig's right in thinking that the Mavs do), then as a GM you're not going to have any problem with a Marion/Brewer/(Stevenson and/or Cardinal) SF rotation.

See my points above.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by jthig32

It would be disappointing if they worry about paying tax for a front line player. I'm fine if they worry about luxury tax for a backup, which is what Butler would be. He's a backup, coming off a major injury, headed into "past his prime" territory, that only plays one position.

But he frees up Marion from playing a lot of SF minutes. Marion is able to play more PF minutes -> Dirks minutes can become Duncanesk and Marion legs are fresher for the playoffs.

And i have my clear doubts about Brewer and Marion playing SF/PF alongside. And no, i also dont want Cardinal on the court as backup PF.

Butler just fixes a lot of issues where i have my clear doubts that Brewer/Cardinal/Stevenson could fix it. Ah and btw the guy is able to get his own shots and give you 20+ on any given night. Who knows if he falls off the age cliff. Maybe not in the next 2-3 years. And maybe the injury is 100% healed (everyone thought Kidd is half done after his torn ACLs). And then Butler with MLE money is a huge steal.

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by sefant77

See my points above.

There's only one point that's really relevant, and that's the one concerning Brewer. You're not big on him, and from that foundation it's perfectly reasonable to want the Mavs to re-sign Caron. On the other hand if you're optimistic about Brewer's potential to contribute this year (as the Mavs may very well be), any concerns about Stevenson/Cardinal's ability to play a lot of SF don't really amount to much, since you're talking about backups for a backup at that point; the priority is going to be elsewhere.

[Rick41]

I need to stop posting from my phone so I could provide some links, with that said, just saw on twitter a list of teams Kurt Thomas could end up on and our lovely Mavs was one of them...

Edit: here

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...ticle-1.983677


Is it the NY Daily News that loves to make stuff up?

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by sefant77

But he frees up Marion from playing a lot of SF minutes. Marion is able to play more PF minutes -> Dirks minutes can become Duncanesk and Marion legs are fresher for the playoffs.

And i have my clear doubts about Brewer and Marion playing SF/PF alongside. And no, i also dont want Cardinal on the court as backup PF.

Butler just fixes a lot of issues where i have my clear doubts that Brewer/Cardinal/Stevenson could fix it. Ah and btw the guy is able to get his own shots and give you 20+ on any given night. Who knows if he falls off the age cliff. Maybe not in the next 2-3 years. And maybe the injury is 100% healed (everyone thought Kidd is half done after his torn ACLs). And then Butler with MLE money is a huge steal.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree. The guy had one horrendous month and one good month last year before getting hurt. He was ok at best for us after the trade the year before. He had already slipped significantly as an offensive player before his major injury last season.

I'm not opposed to bringing him back on a decent one year contract, but that's all I'm interested in. He's not an integral part of the team and I won't bat an eye if he leaves.

[grndmstr_c]

Just looked at Jeff Foster's numbers again, and his productivity has held up better than I thought. I may have been overhasty in dismissing him as an acceptable low-cost, preserve-flexibility-for-2012 option in the event that Tyson departs.

[xrobx]

i think people forget butler was finally getting used to the system and had just had a 30 point game before he got hurt

[grndmstr_c]

Originally Posted by xrobx

i think people forget butler was finally getting used to the system and had just had a 30 point game before he got hurt

A big part of what an optimist would call figuring out the system was him shooting the three-ball over 10 percentage points above his career average. It's extremely unlikely that he would have, or will keep that level of production up.

[OneLove22]

We have Mark Cuban. No need to worry about luxury tax.


So is there a limit to how much into luxury tax you can spend?

[Blackspider]

I'm already hearing Paul wants to play with the Knicks. This is an interesting dilemma for the Mavs. Dirk is getting older. At some point, there needs to be a younger star here that is the #1 guy. Those 3 names are Paul/Williams/Howard. How confident any of them would even sign here? If they want to go that route, they can't sign Chandler here. Then they would need to find a 1 year stop plug for this season. Without Chandler, we do not repeat or win it all this past season. But if you can sacrifice this season for a franchise player to go with Dirk for the rest of his career, do you do it?

Because if they pass on Chandler and get none of those dudes next summer, then they are empty and screwed.

[xrobx]

Originally Posted by Blackspider

Because if they pass on Chandler and get none of those dudes next summer, then they are empty and screwed.

not completely empty, we still have the 2011 championship regardless of how bad this team gets

[Blackspider]

Originally Posted by xrobx

not completely empty, we still have the 2011 championship regardless of how bad this team gets

Well true but I mean in terms of repeating, which is a realistic goal while we still have Dirk at the end of his prime.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Blackspider

I'm already hearing Paul wants to play with the Knicks. This is an interesting dilemma for the Mavs. Dirk is getting older. At some point, there needs to be a younger star here that is the #1 guy. Those 3 names are Paul/Williams/Howard. How confident any of them would even sign here? If they want to go that route, they can't sign Chandler here. Then they would need to find a 1 year stop plug for this season. Without Chandler, we do not repeat or win it all this past season. But if you can sacrifice this season for a franchise player to go with Dirk for the rest of his career, do you do it?

Because if they pass on Chandler and get none of those dudes next summer, then they are empty and screwed.

2012 isnt the time for this.

Paul gonna end up with the Knicks. Thats allready more than just rumors. Anthony gave an interview weeks ago mentioning regarding Paul "If the numbers working out (in the new CBA)" - pretty much telling that they allready decided to create another superteam.

That leaves Williams and Dwight. Deron said he wanna stay with Nets. And again: They will play in an incredible arena in Brooklyn, they will have cap for a max player AND trade value with Lopez. I pretty much expect Deron to stay and Dwight signing there as FA (or ending up in LA in a Bynum trade after announcing that he wont resign in Orlando).

2014 should be our FA year. Dirk gone, Marion gone and Haywood either traded or amnestied...

[dude1394]

I kinda hope Paul does force himself to ny. Then once the dirkster retires, I can retire my fandom.

[spreedom]

Honestly, I don't think a CP3/Melo/Amare teaming up automatically makes the Knicks the second best team in the East going forward. I have serious doubts about Paul staying healthy for the long-term, and Melo and Amare are so terrible defensively they're hardly threats to me outside of the regular season.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by spreedom

Honestly, I don't think a CP3/Melo/Amare teaming up automatically makes the Knicks the second best team in the East going forward. I have serious doubts about Paul staying healthy for the long-term, and Melo and Amare are so terrible defensively they're hardly threats to me outside of the regular season.

The EC has the potential to become really funny. All the wanna be franchise player quitter (Anthony, Amare, Paul, Bosh, James etc) ending up in "Superteams" in the same conference

Heat
Knicks
Bulls (at least no "super(friends) teams)

And then maybe the Nets with Deron, Dwight and maybe Iggy (in a Lopez trade)

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by sefant77

The EC has the potential to become really funny. All the wanna be franchise player quitter (Anthony, Amare, Paul, Bosh, James etc) ending up in "Superteams" in the same conference

Heat
Knicks
Bulls (at least no "super(friends) teams)

And then maybe the Nets with Deron, Dwight and maybe Iggy (in a Lopez trade)

I'd actually be surprised if a Deron/Dwight/Iggy combo wasn't better than the Miami big three.

[dalmations202]

Personally I hope Dallas lets Caron walk.

First things first -- sign Tyson Chandler.

Then look to sign one of Battier, Yi, or AK47 in that order. (all hybrid SF/PF types)

Then try to get Barrea back.(or find his replacement)

Then look to Stevenson, Peja, Cardinal etc on smaller contracts. (True role players)

[mavs777]

Nene came out with 6 teams he is interested in, now while he may not be the best fit right now, it gives the Mavs a clear backup to Dirk, lets Marion play a ton of SF minutes, and makes a lot of sense if Caron/TC does walk. The thing is though Nene while not young (29) can help this team when Dirk does retire. The Mavs can focus on the present but they can't ignore the future.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/11/...ee-agents-2011

Nene wants to leave the Denver Nuggets and has six suitors in serious play, reports Ken Berger of CBS Sports. Those six teams -- the Golden State Warriors, New Jersey Nets, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat -- are at varying levels of ability to actually sign him outright, however, which may require the Nuggets to be involved.

Berger reports that the Warriors are interested in improving the team's frontcourt, and would use the amnesty clause on disappointing and expensive Latvian center Andris Biedrins to fit Nene on the cap sheet. The Nets could find room by waiving Travis Outlaw, and the Pacers have as much cap space as anyone in the NBA.

If you wondering how the Heat can manage to add Nene via sign-and-trade or by signing him outright without the Brazilian taking a massive paycut, you are not alone. Houston and Dallas have young prospects, at least.

[kenny_817]

Originally Posted by mavs777

Nene came out with 6 teams he is interested in, now while he may not be the best fit right now, it gives the Mavs a clear backup to Dirk, lets Marion play a ton of SF minutes, and makes a lot of sense if Caron/TC does walk. The thing is though Nene while not young (29) can help this team when Dirk does retire. The Mavs can focus on the present but they can't ignore the future.

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/11/...ee-agents-2011

There is no way in hell that Nene goes anywhere to be a backup...no chance

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by kenny_817

There is no way in hell that Nene goes anywhere to be a backup...no chance

When did I say he would be a backup? He would be the starting center and at the time can backup Dirk if TC leaves.

[dude1394]

I'm not interested in speculating about Tyson walking. If cubes lets him go I will be very, very disgusted. It would tie his stupidest gm move.

[41mvp]

Nene<Tyson Chandler

[Blackspider]

Originally Posted by sefant77

2012 isnt the time for this.

Paul gonna end up with the Knicks. Thats allready more than just rumors. Anthony gave an interview weeks ago mentioning regarding Paul "If the numbers working out (in the new CBA)" - pretty much telling that they allready decided to create another superteam.

That leaves Williams and Dwight. Deron said he wanna stay with Nets. And again: They will play in an incredible arena in Brooklyn, they will have cap for a max player AND trade value with Lopez. I pretty much expect Deron to stay and Dwight signing there as FA (or ending up in LA in a Bynum trade after announcing that he wont resign in Orlando).

2014 should be our FA year. Dirk gone, Marion gone and Haywood either traded or amnestied...

Yeah you are probably right, which is why it is real dangerous to put your eggs in a basket in the future. I say, go for what you know works and start signing the key pieces from the Finals team and maybe add a few other pieces from the outside.

I'm on the fence about Caron. While we did win without him, he can be a valuable piece here if he stays healthy. But he needs to be a lot more consistent than what he is. Chandler and Barea are definitely priorities over him. I'm guessing this will be Kidd's final season.

[Kidd Karma]

Yea, if we're talking Nene versus Tyson, it's not even close. Cuban better pay Tyson what he wants because he was a very big part of our ship. It's similar to the type of intensity KG brought to Boston. Nene maybe talented, by Tyson brings so many intangibles to the table, it ain't funny. I'd let Caron go to keep Chandler around. Now as for other team's FA, AK47 is probably the one that intrigues me the most. The guy was at his best when there wasn't a lane clogger like Boozer, with Dirk, AK47 will have plenty of space to work with.

[Budapest Maverick]

Originally Posted by grndmstr_c

A big part of what an optimist would call figuring out the system was him shooting the three-ball over 10 percentage points above his career average. It's extremely unlikely that he would have, or will keep that level of production up.

Not necessarily. I think our system (and Dirk) was the reason why Butler's efficiency went up. Our team simply worked better in 2010/2011 then the year before. It's not like Butler was making impossible shots, he had open shots, because of our system, and because of Dirk. He simply never played anyone close to Dirk caliber before, he never had open shots like those.

I want him back, but we simply need to know what Cubes wants. Are we gonna get in the game for Howard, Williams, or Paul? If he wants to, we simply cannot resign Butler and even Chandler. If we not, we might as well resign Chandler for 3 years, Butler for 2, and try to rock the NBA again.

[Budapest Maverick]

Originally Posted by sefant77

2012 isnt the time for this.

Paul gonna end up with the Knicks. Thats allready more than just rumors. Anthony gave an interview weeks ago mentioning regarding Paul "If the numbers working out (in the new CBA)" - pretty much telling that they allready decided to create another superteam.

That leaves Williams and Dwight. Deron said he wanna stay with Nets. And again: They will play in an incredible arena in Brooklyn, they will have cap for a max player AND trade value with Lopez. I pretty much expect Deron to stay and Dwight signing there as FA (or ending up in LA in a Bynum trade after announcing that he wont resign in Orlando).

2014 should be our FA year. Dirk gone, Marion gone and Haywood either traded or amnestied...

Agree with every word, i believe that's the way to go. If Dirk would be 28, i would say clear some cap space immediately, but we need to milk this thing now. We can be even better then last year with a little luck.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Yea, if we're talking Nene versus Tyson, it's not even close. Cuban better pay Tyson what he wants because he was a very big part of our ship. It's similar to the type of intensity KG brought to Boston. Nene maybe talented, by Tyson brings so many intangibles to the table, it ain't funny. I'd let Caron go to keep Chandler around. Now as for other team's FA, AK47 is probably the one that intrigues me the most. The guy was at his best when there wasn't a lane clogger like Boozer, with Dirk, AK47 will have plenty of space to work with.

I don't think anyone thinks Nene is at the level of TC, but if TC is looking for the top dollar available I don't think that will be in Dallas, someone will be willing to overpay and give him near a max deal

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by OneLove22

We have Mark Cuban. No need to worry about luxury tax.


So is there a limit to how much into luxury tax you can spend?

Nope, no limit, just the tax goes from dollar to dollar to .25 cents per 5,000 increment and a full dollar bump for offenders 4 of the last 5 seasons.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

Not necessarily. I think our system (and Dirk) was the reason why Butler's efficiency went up. Our team simply worked better in 2010/2011 then the year before. It's not like Butler was making impossible shots, he had open shots, because of our system, and because of Dirk. He simply never played anyone close to Dirk caliber before, he never had open shots like those.

Then explain why Butler was awful for half of his 2010/2011 season.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by jthig32

Then explain why Butler was awful for half of his 2010/2011 season.

Barea was awful for the first two months of the season, but then seemed to get it. Players can turn it around, and Butler did before he got injured.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Barea was awful for the first two months of the season, but then seemed to get it. Players can turn it around, and Butler did before he got injured.

Because the fact that he "turned it around" was based largely on an unsustainable accuracy from three point range, it's far more likely that he simply got hot for a while.

[Kante]

Yep, Butler was great before he went down!