Josh Howard contract - financial details, analysis - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

DLord · 10-20-2006, 10:24 AM

The Mavs never give out details on contracts. In time, the details leak out by one method or another.

For discussion purposes in the interim ....

The number being used is 4 yrs / $40M, as has been well publicized.

Factoring in max raises as being part of the structure (which are almost a given these days in the payout of a contract, because of the tax and cap issues), this new contract would look like this:

8,639,309
9,546,437
10,453,564
11,360,690

Let's put this next to JET's deal and take a look.

For comparative purposes, here's how Jason Terry's reported 6 yr 57M deal breaks down, with max raises. I put JHo's numbers alongside in parentheses...

YR ............ JET .............J Howard

2006/07.....7,524,752 ....(1,667,603)
2007/08.....8,314,851 ....(8,639,309)
2008/09.....9,104,950 ....(9,546,437)
2009/10.....9,895,049 ....(10,453,564)
2010/11....10,685,148 ....(11,360,690)
2011/12....11,475,247 ......... x

There have been discussions of a deal for JHo matching Prince (5/47.5) and Ginobili (52), and also wondering if the Mavs were being faced with JHo asking for Terry money (57) but over 5 yrs not 6. I've seen discussions here where "split the difference" at 5/52 was a popular opinion when it seemed like JHo may have been looking for more, early on.

On the deal he got, it's interesting that a 5th year would have made Josh's deal 5/52 - the very number that split the difference between 5/47 and 6/57 in the discussions.

In terms of his role on this team, and total pay over the next 5 years (5/41.7) - keeping in mind that the 1st year was a given, but it still is what he is getting paid alongside other players who are contributing less - this total deal looks pretty reasonable to me.

In tax/CBA terms, I think it also is a very reasonable deal. Whether we like it or not, a couple years from now a 10M player is going to be getting 1/2 of Dirks (ie superstar) pay. JET and JHo are those primary support players for Dirk. NBA Tax Management Class says in the next several years as the revenues rise, you can afford 1 superstar at 20, 2-4 key players at 10, and the rest getting portions of MLE money. JHo and Jet have deals that work in that basic structure for this team or any other.

Kudos to Mark Cuban, Donnie Nelson, and whoever else got this done.

sike · 10-20-2006, 10:32 AM

thanks for the layout DLord.... you are a basketball nerd of the highest rank and order

its interesting to see Howard getting paid about the same as players who I fully expect him to surpass in the next 2 seasons. But I agree with the "get it done before he has another year packed with improvment and the number goes up" theory.

Kidd/Jackson/Mashburn

Nash/Finley/Dirk

JT/JHo/Dirk

HexNBA · 10-20-2006, 11:08 AM

Thanks for posting that here DLord. You and Fish have a falling out?

I see DallasBasketball.com hasnt been updated in a few days, pretty unusual.

DLord · 10-20-2006, 11:32 AM

Hex...Nope there wasnt a falling out. As my non-IT little brain understands it, Fish "changed web servers" or "changed server hosts" or somesuch for the site, about a week or so ago. The end result is that he somehow ended up with a new system that has a messed up system for the home page. If he changes the articles, it crashes.

Consequently there are no new articles on the home page lately, and that will continue until he can get the technical problem resolved. In the interim, I'm writing very little, because it wont get posted and because to me preseason means next to nothing anyhow. When I get a notion to write something article-like that wont wait, it ends up on the db.com discussion boards. (Fish's latest preseason articles are there as well.)

Eventually it will get resolved. Hopefully soon. But it's not my issue to worry about.

Since the JHo signing is hot info, and the numbers help in the discussions, I did a quick analysis for our readers at db.com. But I didnt think it would be seen by most people here, since it isnt on our home page where our articles usually go. Thus I posted it here too, so the discussions here could have the benefit to the info as well.

Thanks for reading.

DL

HexNBA · 10-20-2006, 11:54 AM

Cool, thanks for the heads up. Hopefully he'll have it sorted out soon

V2M · 10-20-2006, 01:32 PM

Thanks for the breakup DLord. I agree that it's a job well done by all parties and in that, I must say, you played your role quite well with your write up last week titled, "GIT 'ER DONE".

Last week, We've had a nice discussion on how the Spurs salary structure of recent years compares to the Mavs. If you wouldn't mind, I'd like to trouble you into discussing the Suns payroll.

From what I know & recollect, here's their deals recently:

Diaw - $45m/5yr (starts next year)
Barbosa - $33m/5yr (starts next year)
Banks - $24m/5yr (2nd year)
Marion - $80m+/6yr (4th year)
Amare - $73m/5yr (2nd year)
Nash - $65m/6yr (3rd year)
Bell - $25m/5yr (2nd year)
KT - $31m/4yr (expires at end of 08/09)

That roughly adds up to well over $70m and should in all likelihood put them in LT for many years to come. What are your thoughts?

nashtymavsfan13 · 10-20-2006, 05:48 PM

Thanks for the writeup DLord, I'm really glad the Mavs were able to get this done.

wmbwinn · 10-20-2006, 06:10 PM

I'll sleep a lot better now knowing that JHo is "in the house."

Thanks for the information and write up.

V2M · 10-20-2006, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

I'll sleep a lot better now knowing that JHo is "in the house."

Thanks for the information and write up.

Good for you, wmbwinn. I'm sorry I was a bit curt with you in the other thread... but I was clearly upset when I read what you wrote, "I suspect that Josh is pushing his luck to expect more than Bonzi."

Even presuming you were talking of the deal Bonzi had from the Kings which was $35m/5yr... can you now agree that Josh is a better player now, and given his age, would be a much better player over the length of his contract!

DLord · 10-20-2006, 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V2M

From what I know & recollect, here's their deals recently:

Diaw - $45m/5yr (starts next year)
Barbosa - $33m/5yr (starts next year)
Banks - $24m/5yr (2nd year)
Marion - $80m+/6yr (4th year)
Amare - $73m/5yr (2nd year)
Nash - $65m/6yr (3rd year)
Bell - $25m/5yr (2nd year)
KT - $31m/4yr (expires at end of 08/09)

That roughly adds up to well over $70m and should in all likelihood put them in LT for many years to come. What are your thoughts?

2006/07 The Suns are right at the tax limit this season, within a million one way or the other. No tax crisis.
2007/08 My best math has them at about 77M, assuming they fill out their roster with minimum salary players. If they want to spend the MLE, that number grows. Regardless, thats a big tax hit unless they find a taker for some salary (K Thomas in a deadline deal this year to a team desperate for a center, maybe, for an expiring contract?)
2008/09 KT is off the books at this point. But they are at about 70M with 8 players. Lots of variables as to how they could spend or not spend beyond that.
Later Marion, Nash, and Stoudemire come off the books the following years one by one (in that order).

Conclusion: other than 07/08 I dont see a tax problem, and their payroll isnt yet one they cant live with.

Could that change? I think there are three huge variables at play with the Suns, that are all unknowns right now ...
1. Will Amare again be a star player?
My guess is no. His contract is superstar money, so tossing that sort of money in the trash reduces their options. Would they try to find a sucker to take a shot on him, like the Kings did with Webber?
2. Will Sarver soften his "no tax" stance?
His wealth is entirely in the Suns. They are supposedly one of the NBAs most profitable franchises so he has been getting some nice personal paychecks, so to speak. But the tax essentially comes right out of his pocket. If he wants to keep all his income, there is no tax, and they will have to shave the payroll.
3. How long can the team get away with their "no center" concept?
Assuming Amare is no factor, they have K Thomas, backed by Diaw/Marion as their interior. I really think they feel they signed their "center" for the next few years in Diaw, for relatively cheap. That savings can partially offset the huge waste of Stoudemire's deal. But how far do they ride that centerless horse?

My sense is that if they dont keep winning divisions, it all craters. To an extent, it's all on Nash's back both literally and figuratively. They have no money for big men. Playing undersized takes it toll over time. And I cant see their window for this approach lasting once Nash is done.

In the bigger picture, NBA history tells us you dont win titles playing small. The playoff grind is too severe. At some point, the Suns will have to make a choice: add some size to what they have and pay a pile of tax, remake the roster and style and swap some talent for some size, or be satisfied with only going so far. I suspect they'll opt to play small ball until Nash wears out, but only time will tell.

dirno2000 · 10-20-2006, 09:31 PM

Quote:

3. How long can the team get away with their "no center" concept?
Assuming Amare is no factor, they have K Thomas, backed by Diaw/Marion as their interior. I really think they feel they signed their "center" for the next few years in Diaw, for relatively cheap. That savings can partially offset the huge waste of Stoudemire's deal. But how far do they ride that centerless horse?

My sense is that if they dont keep winning divisions, it all craters. To an extent, it's all on Nash's back both literally and figuratively. They have no money for big men. Playing undersized takes it toll over time. And I cant see their window for this approach lasting once Nash is done.

In the bigger picture, NBA history tells us you dont win titles playing small. The playoff grind is too severe. At some point, the Suns will have to make a choice: add some size to what they have and pay a pile of tax, remake the roster and style and swap some talent for some size, or be satisfied with only going so far. I suspect they'll opt to play small ball until Nash wears out, but only time will tell.

Of course the X-factor in all of this is the Atlanta pick from the Joe Johnson trade.

If you're a fan of another western conference contender you have to hope that the Hawks end up with a top 3 pick. Otherwise the pick goes to the Suns and D'Antoni has a lottery pick in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory.

Is you assume that Oden, Durant and Noah go 1,2 and 3, the Suns are sitting there looking at McRoberts, Horford or one of this years 7-foot freshmen.

A core of a still improving Barbosa, Diaw and a cheap big would allow the Suns to remain a thorn in our sides even as Nash declines.

V2M · 10-20-2006, 11:18 PM

DLord- Good points all. I agree their fortunes rest on the back of Nash and on the knees of Amare, which are both huge question marks. They'll continue to be a great passing and 3pt shooting team but poor defensive and rebounding team. They'll win may games in the regular season, I'm sure, but their non-stop pace over 82 games will tire 'em out for the playoffs. I won't say they can't win a ring but I certainly won't bet on them until they plug the middle with a big guy.

As for KT, I don't know who in their right mind would take him given his age, injury risk and his contract. Do you know of any playoff contenders that have an expiring contract to trade and might want him this year.

Dirno- That's an interesting angle I haven't thought of. Hopefully they don't get a top 5 player. Atlanta may have the dumbest management in the league. What kind of an idiot would give $70m/5yr for a SG (even if it's Joe Johnson?!) and give up Diaw plus two 1st round picks?! Most lopsided trade ever, I'd say!

kriD · 10-21-2006, 05:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V2M

As for KT, I don't know who in their right mind would take him given his age, injury risk and his contract. Do you know of any playoff contenders that have an expiring contract to trade and might want him this year.

Except for last season, KT has been one of the healthiest big men of the league in the last 7 years. His contract isn't any bigger than others at this body size, e.g. Croshere's. And it expires in two years - not a real problem either. Age, he just turned 34, is indeed a problem, especially in a run-and-gun system (wonder what caused his stress fracture...). But in other systems he'd most likely be - for the rest of his contract - the same healthy, solid contributor he has been for the last 5 years, averaging 11.8 Pts and 8.7 Rebs in 32 minutes...

Pirate · 10-21-2006, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kriD

Except for last season, KT has been one of the healthiest big men of the league in the last 7 years. His contract isn't any bigger than others at this body size, e.g. Croshere's. And it expires in two years - not a real problem either. Age, he just turned 34, is indeed a problem, especially in a run-and-gun system (wonder what caused his stress fracture...). But in other systems he'd most likely be - for the rest of his contract - the same healthy, solid contributor he has been for the last 5 years, averaging 11.8 Pts and 8.7 Rebs in 32 minutes...

That's the upside.

The downside: he's 34. He just came off an injury-plagued season. His body has a lot of miles on it. And the deal the Suns undoubtedly want will jack up your salary cap level in the future by about 8M per year.

If the Mavs for example traded for him, I'd be asking for the highest Atlanta pick in 2007 to justify all the extra tax. Doesn't that kill 2 birds with one stone? Wouldn't any other team demand just as much?

Pirate · 10-21-2006, 08:33 AM

Finding teams with an 8M expiring contract is tough.

Teams that appear to have the contract or cap space to satisfy the Suns need to ditch the salary, and that might be willing to do the deal:

Teams with the expiring contract that might have a need and be bribeable
Dallas? (if Croshere doesnt work out)
New Orleans

Teams unlikely to really need KT but with a similar player on a similar contract who is expiring - bribeable if the tip is big enough, perhaps
Milwaukee
Denver
Portland
LA Lakers
NY
Sacramento

FINtastic · 10-21-2006, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Of course the X-factor in all of this is the Atlanta pick from the Joe Johnson trade.

If you're a fan of another western conference contender you have to hope that the Hawks end up with a top 3 pick. Otherwise the pick goes to the Suns and D'Antoni has a lottery pick in one of the deepest drafts in recent memory.

Is you assume that Oden, Durant and Noah go 1,2 and 3, the Suns are sitting there looking at McRoberts, Horford or one of this years 7-foot freshmen.

A core of a still improving Barbosa, Diaw and a cheap big would allow the Suns to remain a thorn in our sides even as Nash declines.

I would absolutely love to see the Suns waste a top pick on McRoberts.

dirno2000 · 10-21-2006, 01:55 PM

He probably wouldn't be the guy, I was just throwing out the names of bigs that could go in the lottery.

Most likely they'd try to package their pick with a player and maybe Cleveland's first rounder to go after Noah.

nashtymavsfan13 · 10-21-2006, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

He probably wouldn't be the guy, I was just throwing out the names of bigs that could go in the lottery.

Most likely they'd try to package their pick with a player and maybe Cleveland's first rounder to go after Noah.

Who do you think will end up with Oden?

FINtastic · 10-21-2006, 02:05 PM

The Charlotte Bobcats hopefully. With Felton and Oden, they would be set for the next 10 years...

Still, Felton is too good and competitive to let the Bobcats lose that many games this year. I can really see the first pick going to the Knicks and have them picking Durant. Only Isiah could screw up that pick

dirno2000 · 10-21-2006, 02:42 PM

Quote:

I can really see the first pick going to the Knicks and have them picking Durant. Only Isiah could screw up that pick

He already screwed it up...the Bulls have the righ to switch 1st round picks with the Kincks as part of the Curry trade.

FINtastic · 10-21-2006, 02:50 PM

Well, there you go. I knew he would.

wmbwinn · 10-21-2006, 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by V2M

Good for you, wmbwinn. I'm sorry I was a bit curt with you in the other thread... but I was clearly upset when I read what you wrote, "I suspect that Josh is pushing his luck to expect more than Bonzi."

Even presuming you were talking of the deal Bonzi had from the Kings which was $35m/5yr... can you now agree that Josh is a better player now, and given his age, would be a much better player over the length of his contract!

No question. I would much rather have Josh Howard than Bonzi.

My notes were in reference to the amount the Kings offered Bonzi originally. Bonzi has serious attitude problems but he is a tremendous talent when motivated. I was worried than in a "comparables" evaluation (like what happens when you want to sell your house and the fair market value is determined in large measure by comparing the values in the neighborhood), that it might be a hard sell to say Bonzi isn't worth 7 million per year to the Kings but Josh would be worth 10 million to the Mavs.

I was wrong. Bonzi wasn't worth 7 million to the Kings but Josh is worth 10 million to the Mavs. I'm surprised that Josh got that huge payday. I expected a 7.5-8.5 million range per year.

But, I'm very happy that Josh is staying in Dallas. Josh is hugely important to the Mavs.

By comparables, Josh's 10 million pushes the value of other players up. Dirk is going to have to make near the 18 million mark to be fair.

Didn't Gooden sign a contract recently?

"In the end, league sources said the Cavs signed Gooden to a three-year contract worth $20.25 million guaranteed with a potential of $3 million more in bonuses. He will make $6.6 million this season. It will dip to $6.4 million next year and then jump to $7.1 million in the final year."

http://www.ohio.com/mld/beaconjourna...l/15524988.htm

Is Josh comparably worth about 3 million per year more than Gooden?

Anyway, Josh should be VERY, VERY happy. He just got paid. Big Time.

mqywaaah · 10-21-2006, 11:49 PM

Great job DLord! Appreciate it!

nikeball · 10-23-2006, 03:51 AM

thanks dlord, and many others for insights.

i hope durant stays in college!! q=D