2018 NBA Draft

[Underdog]

Which Prospects Best Fit The Mavericks
http://dallassportsfanatic.com/prosp...fit-mavericks/

For purposes of this discussion, we’ll consider two prospects to be out of reach. Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton and Duke’s Marvin Bagley III seem to be two very likely top-three picks. Ayton is currently going first at NBADraft.net, and Bagley has a shot at some national player of the year awards. If Dallas lands a top-two pick (which is a long shot), it should take one of these two dominant, extraordinary big men. However, the following are some of the prospects who are more likely to be available to the Mavericks, and who look like good fits.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Honestly the more I watch Doncic the more I think he's a no brainer pick after top 2. Everything about him looks like a perfect fit for this team.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Honestly the more I watch Doncic the more I think he's a no brainer pick after top 2. Everything about him looks like a perfect fit for this team.

I like Doncic a lot, but I'd still take Porter over him... Maybe I'm still buying into the "next Durant" hype, but I just can't shake the notion that he could have the most upside in this draft.

My biggest problem with trying to project the Mavs top-10 is Young -- at what point does BPA edge out need? Still have Bamba over him, but #6 just seems too low for a player of his caliber. He likely won't be there when we pick, but what if he is?

Still don't think Sexton makes enough of an impact to overlook need -- doesn't make sense to try to pair him with DSJ... Also think Knox is way too similar to Barnes to crack my top-10... But I do finally have Mikal over Miles.

DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley II
Michael Porter Jr
Luka Doncic
Mohamed Bamba
(Trae Young?)
Jaren Jackson Jr
Mikal Bridges
Wendell Carter
Miles Bridges

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I like Doncic a lot, but I'd still take Porter over him... Maybe I'm still buying into the "next Durant" hype, but I just can't shake the notion that he could have the most upside in this draft.

My biggest problem with trying to project the Mavs top-10 is Young -- at what point does BPA edge out need? Still have Bamba over him, but #6 just seems too low for a player of his caliber. He likely won't be there when we pick, but what if he is?

Still don't think Sexton makes enough of an impact to overlook need -- doesn't make sense to try to pair him with DSJ... Also think Knox is way to similar to Barnes to crack my top-10... But I do finally have Mikal over Miles.

DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley II
Michael Porter Jr
Luka Doncic
Mohamed Bamba
(Trae Young?)
Jaren Jackson Jr
Mikal Bridges
Wendell Carter
Miles Bridges

I can see the argument for Porter and Young starting at 3 really regardless of need. I personally have Doncic firmly at 3 but if we have a top 6 pick I'm ecstatic with all of those guys regardless of order. If we land 7+ then the only thing I'll be happy about is I won't need to make my bed anymore, seeing as how I'll never leave it.

[Magnum_3_Ball]

Originally Posted by Underdog

I like Doncic a lot, but I'd still take Porter over him... Maybe I'm still buying into the "next Durant" hype, but I just can't shake the notion that he could have the most upside in this draft.

My biggest problem with trying to project the Mavs top-10 is Young -- at what point does BPA edge out need? Still have Bamba over him, but #6 just seems too low for a player of his caliber. He likely won't be there when we pick, but what if he is?

Still don't think Sexton makes enough of an impact to overlook need -- doesn't make sense to try to pair him with DSJ... Also think Knox is way too similar to Barnes to crack my top-10... But I do finally have Mikal over Miles.

DeAndre Ayton
Marvin Bagley II
Michael Porter Jr
Luka Doncic
Mohamed Bamba
(Trae Young?)
Jaren Jackson Jr
Mikal Bridges
Wendell Carter
Miles Bridges

Hello Dallas Mavs forum! This is my first post. I'm glad I found this thread. Since the Cowboys were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs, I've been looking at the NBA draft since that's what the Mavs are playing for this season. Oooooh, I was so mad when we won those 4 games in a row; especially after we had just saddled ATL with a win. Smh lol

Anyways, some things I've read/heard about the 2018 draft prospects. I agree with Underdog. To me, Ayton is the clear #1 prospect on this board. He's the one player who appears to measure out a legit 7' feet. Both Bagley & Bamba I have seen listed anywhere from 6-9 to 7 feet, which lets you know they're probably both a lot closer to 6-9. Imo, Bamba is a clear drop off from the top tier talent in this draft. Bamba is the start of tier 2 for me.

I've heard it discussed on a couple of boards that Porter Jr likely won't even declare for the 2018 draft. The reason given is it's said to be very important to him to win a national championship in college & to win one for his home state of Missouri. I'm not sure how much validity you can give those reports, but I think it's definitely fair to question whether he declares or not.

Also, regarding Porter Jr, herniated discs are no joke. I had a herniated disc myself that required surgery 10 years ago. I haven't run or jump since. Basically due to doctor's recommendations. True, I'm not a professional athlete & if I were, I would most likely sacrifice some of my long term quality of life considerations for millions of dollars. Still, the point remains. Yes, you can do constant physical therapy & keep your core strong, but it's a chore, and your back will always be weakened. I think it's a major red flag. Knowing what I know about herniated discs, I doubt I would take Michael Porter Jr with a 1st round pick. He'd have to come back to college & prove it to me.

I've also read glowing reviews of Mikal Bridges across a half-dozen sites or so. Pretty much everyone has him as their dark horse/sleeper of the draft. Oh, and I heard one site list Sexton as a potential top 5 pick. He's near 20 ppg at 19.3 and his %s aren't too shabby (44.2% FG 36.8% 3PT 79.8% FT)

I really hope the Mavs can find a way to lose as many games as possible, get lucky & win the draft lottery and take Ayton. That's what I'm praying for.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Magnum_3_Ball

Hello Dallas Mavs forum! This is my first post. I'm glad I found this thread. Since the Cowboys were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs, I've been looking at the NBA draft since that's what the Mavs are playing for this season. Oooooh, I was so mad when we won those 4 games in a row; especially after we had just saddled ATL with a win. Smh lol

Anyways, some things I've read/heard about the 2018 draft prospects. I agree with Underdog. To me, Ayton is the clear #1 prospect on this board. He's the one player who appears to measure out a legit 7' feet. Both Bagley & Bamba I have seen listed anywhere from 6-9 to 7 feet, which lets you know they're probably both a lot closer to 6-9. Imo, Bamba is a clear drop off from the top tier talent in this draft. Bamba is the start of tier 2 for me.

I've heard it discussed on a couple of boards that Porter Jr likely won't even declare for the 2018 draft. The reason given is it's said to be very important to him to win a national championship in college & to win one for his home state of Missouri. I'm not sure how much validity you can give those reports, but I think it's definitely fair to question whether he declares or not.

Also, regarding Porter Jr, herniated discs are no joke. I had a herniated disc myself that required surgery 10 years ago. I haven't run or jump since. Basically due to doctor's recommendations. True, I'm not a professional athlete & if I were, I would most likely sacrifice some of my long term quality of life considerations for millions of dollars. Still, the point remains. Yes, you can do constant physical therapy & keep your core strong, but it's a chore, and your back will always be weakened. I think it's a major red flag. Knowing what I know about herniated discs, I doubt I would take Michael Porter Jr with a 1st round pick. He'd have to come back to college & prove it to me.

I've also read glowing reviews of Mikal Bridges across a half-dozen sites or so. Pretty much everyone has him as their dark horse/sleeper of the draft. Oh, and I heard one site list Sexton as a potential top 5 pick. He's near 20 ppg at 19.3 and his %s aren't too shabby (44.2% FG 36.8% 3PT 79.8% FT)

I really hope the Mavs can find a way to lose as many games as possible, get lucky & win the draft lottery and take Ayton. That's what I'm praying for.

Welcome to the board! Lots to unpack in your post...

1) Thanks for the info on Porter Jr, I hadn't heard the rumor that he might not declare. That would definitely change the top of the draft, no doubt... And was it a herniated disc? I'd heard that it might have just been a bulge, which means the disc hasn't actually ruptured and a full recovery is more likely. A herniation definitely changes my perspective on him.

2) Ayton is easily at the top of the heap, and I'd agree that Bamba is a cut below... I see Ayton, Bagley, Porter (if 100%) and Doncic as having franchise player potential, whereas I see Bamba as maxing out as an All-Star, at best. He just doesn't have the alpha mentality that the rest of them have.

3) Mikal Bridges is really starting to grow on me, and might even be in my second tier now. I could see him in a similar role as (even though he's a bit different than) Andre Igoudala in Golden State. He's a glue guy who can bring it on defense, help clean up the glass, and hit the open shot -- a guy who can play within himself and doesn't need the ball in his hands to impact the game. He'd be an excellent Wesley Matthews replacement and fit well with Dennis.

4) Not really sold on Sexton with DSJ here, but I'd love to see him enter the top-5 discussion -- especially if Porter doesn't declare. The more guards that push their way up, the better chances we have of getting a guy we need, even if we land outside the top-5.

[saclare]

Jaren Jackson is growing on me. While I'll agree he isn't on the same tier as Ayton or Bagley, a big that can spread the floor while commanding a presence in the middle on defense, that's pretty intriguing. Bonus, he hits his free throws, too.

[Underdog]

@MavsDraft: Games like this show how much of a need rebounding is for the Mavs. If Mavs pick beyond 6, which would essentially eliminate Bamba, Wendell Carter JR would be a good fit. He's a monster rebounder, averaging 9 RPG in 25 minutes, which is good for 14.5 per 40 minutes.

@MavsDraft: He's also got the shot and quick post work and NBA strength. Clearly great in limited minutes, which is a must for Rick.

Compare his rebound/minute rate to Jaren Jackson JR- 6.2 RPG in 23 MPG, 11 per 40 minutes. Both project to have a somewhat reliable J at the least

[MavzMan]

I'm not exactly buying into the notion of deciding our pick by rebounding numbers. We are a flawed team this year due to Dirk who may be having a stellar year in offensive efficiency but his rebounding is definitely taking a hard dip. As our starting center and averaging 25mpg, he's only grabbing 5.5reb. Pretty much any playoff team has a center that should get you double digit rebounds if not doing anything on offense. Pair this with last night's game against Jokic who was just man-handling everyone out there and it just made our rebound situation look worse. I honestly didn't realize Jokic was such a big dude. He made both Dirk and Salah look small.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by MavzMan

I'm not exactly buying into the notion of deciding our pick by rebounding numbers. We are a flawed team this year due to Dirk who may be having a stellar year in offensive efficiency but his rebounding is definitely taking a hard dip. As our starting center and averaging 25mpg, he's only grabbing 5.5reb. Pretty much any playoff team has a center that should get you double digit rebounds if not doing anything on offense. Pair this with last night's game against Jokic who was just man-handling everyone out there and it just made our rebound situation look worse. I honestly didn't realize Jokic was such a big dude. He made both Dirk and Salah look small.

Your first sentence is pretty much contradicted by the rest of your post... You actually did a pretty good job of highlighting why we need improved rebounding.

Fortunately, it's not going to be much of a concern with most of the players we're looking at, especially since we're not chasing PGs... Even the smaller guys are decent rebounders:

Ayton 11.3
Bagley 11.7
Porter 14.3 (high school)
Doncic 5.7
Bamba 10.4
Jackson 6.2
Mikal 6.1
Carter 9.1
Miles 7.4
Williams 9.5

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Your first sentence is pretty much contradicted by the rest of your post... You actually did a pretty good job of highlighting why we need improved rebounding.

Yeah, I did horrible job of transferring my thoughts into the post. My point that I was failing to make is that anyone we get of normal starter caliber at the 4 and 5 going forward in our post-Dirk era will have much better rebounding numbers. We are horrible now mainly because we love Dirk and want him to play as much as he wants. I'm much more concerned about having another franchise star player alongside Jr and HB to offload the offensive pressure.

[sefant77]

In Euroball, thats a pretty impressive number for Doncic

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

In Euroball, thats a pretty impressive number for Doncic

Absolutely, Doncic is a solid rebounder for a guard. Really, the only name that concerns me when it comes to their size-to-rebounding ratio is Jaren Jackson Jr... No reason a 6-11, 243 lbs PF should be grabbing the same amount of boards as a 6-7, 209 lbs wing like Mikal Bridges (who, to be fair, is a solid rebounder for his position).

[Underdog]

Hawks and Grizz win in the same night? Witchcraft!

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Hawks and Grizz win in the same night? Witchcraft!

And back to 5.

[mac222b]

Grizz is the big one. No way we wind up worse than Hawks. Any word on a Conley return? I’m afraid they are already tanking. Sat Gasol tonite with mystery ailment

[saclare]

Erica, I see us at 4 now with the extra loss in the standings over the Lakers. Even better.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by saclare

Erica, I see us at 4 now with the extra loss in the standings over the Lakers. Even better.

Awesome.

Now trade Matthews and Noel for albatrosses and assets. Sit Barea and Harris for injuries. Let Collinsworth and Motley get more minutes.

[saclare]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Awesome.

Now trade Matthews and Noel for albatrosses and assets. Sit Barea and Harris for injuries. Let Collinsworth and Motley get more minutes.

I like it. Except I'd trade one of Barea/Harris for anything we could get so injuries wouldn't have to rule the playing time.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

We should keep in mind that two of the top three best players taken in the 2017 draft were picked 9 and 12 while the number 1 pick is shooting airballs in practice. I know this draft looks front loaded with talent, but remember that Mitchell didn't make a big rise until very close to the draft.

I'm not being in denial as I want Ayton as much as anyone, but I think there is actually a good amount of talent til about 9 or 10. A few months ago we were screaming top 5 or bust, but a few players have risen and more should as well.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

We should keep in mind that two of the top three best players taken in the 2017 draft were picked 9 and 12 while the number 1 pick is shooting airballs in practice. I know this draft looks front loaded with talent, but remember that Mitchell didn't make a big rise until very close to the draft.

I'm not being in denial as I want Ayton as much as anyone, but I think there is actually a good amount of talent til about 9 or 10. A few months ago we were screaming top 5 or bust, but a few players have risen and more should as well.

That's why I like to always bring up historical stats. People think that a first overall pick is a guaranteed gem, but for every LeBron, Kareem, Admiral, Magic, Walton, Robertson, and Hakeem, there is a Kwame Brown, Joe Smith, Michael Olowokandi, Greg Oden, or Anthony Bennett.

of the :

1st pick - 70% became stars
2nd pick - 60% became stars
3rd pick - 85% became stars (strangely)
4th pick - 60% became stars
5th pick - 60%
6th pick - 25%
7th pick - 30%
8th pick - 35%
9th pick - 30%
10th pick - 35%

(stardom for this is determined by basically a rating (similar to PER) of 20.)
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

Obviously you can't look at that and say you have a 70% chance of drafting a star if you draft 1st overall, but it does show two things

1) You aren't guaranteed a star with any draft pick
2) There are some solid stars sprinkled throughout all 60 picks (and a highish chance for all of the first ten picks)


Also, somehow we've had more stars drafted at 3rd than 1st. Weird.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

We should keep in mind that two of the top three best players taken in the 2017 draft were picked 9 and 12 while the number 1 pick is shooting airballs in practice. I know this draft looks front loaded with talent, but remember that Mitchell didn't make a big rise until very close to the draft.

Dennis was a known stud who slipped to us because of his past injury, but Mitchell was a guy who nobody saw coming... Do you trust the Mavs FO to be the ones to see what nobody else is seeing? I'd rather get a nice, safe Jayson Tatum than try to land the next Donovan Mitchell.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Dennis was a known stud who slipped to us because of his past injury, but Mitchell was a guy who nobody saw coming... Do you trust the Mavs FO to be the ones to see what nobody else is seeing? I'd rather get a nice, safe Jayson Tatum than try to land the next Donovan Mitchell.

Don't care if we go for a sure thing (and have that available), a star with medical concerns, or a diamond in the rough as long as they're good.

This draft will be a real test of our medical staff, our scouting, and our front-office (and Cuban's interference).

I think we'll probably end up drafting 5-7 and again 35-37 in a strong draft. There's talent to be had, but it's going to be a big test of their abilities.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Dennis was a known stud who slipped to us because of his past injury, but Mitchell was a guy who nobody saw coming... Do you trust the Mavs FO to be the ones to see what nobody else is seeing? I'd rather get a nice, safe Jayson Tatum than try to land the next Donovan Mitchell.

Agreed, but Donnie did want Giannis, so I don't think it's out of this world. I think picking in the mid to late teens is where you don't want to be, so I'm not overly concerned as long as it's a top 10.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Dennis was a known stud who slipped to us because of his past injury, but Mitchell was a guy who nobody saw coming... Do you trust the Mavs FO to be the ones to see what nobody else is seeing? I'd rather get a nice, safe Jayson Tatum than try to land the next Donovan Mitchell.

I saw Mitchell coming and mocked him to the Mavs with DSJ to the Knicks on this board (IIRC) /humblebrag

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by tap2390

I saw Mitchell coming and mocked him to the Mavs with DSJ to the Knicks on this board (IIRC) /humblebrag

I did not... MARK CUBAN HIRE THIS MAN!

I actually mocked Frank or Malik coming to Dallas, but DSJ was always my #1 since the beginning of last season.

[Underdog]

We've had a good couple of days since our last game -- both Memphis and Atlanta have won their last two...

[EricaLubarsky]

Can we get a seat for you in the war room this draft?

[saclare]

Yea I don't think anyone saw DSJ dropping to us. There was always the chance, but it was slight.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by saclare

Yea I don't think anyone saw DSJ dropping to us. There was always the chance, but it was slight.

I am slightly embarrassed to say, but I've found at least three posts where I posted, "sure Smith would be nice, but you better dream on, he'll be gone by number 5"

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by saclare

Yea I don't think anyone saw DSJ dropping to us. There was always the chance, but it was slight.

Well what killed his value were the repots of his "lack of character" and yet I couldn't find any legit sources that verified that. It was so weird and totally untrue.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Well what killed his value were the repots of his "lack of character" and yet I couldn't find any legit sources that verified that. It was so weird and totally untrue.

Mark Cuban cackles from the shadows... Total Jerry move.

[Underdog]

Grizz, Suns, and Lakers won last night... The past week has been pretty good to us, despite not playing many games. Memphis is on a 3-game streak.

[EricaLubarsky]

Can’t win a game

[tap2390]

The more I see DeAndre Ayton the more I’m convinced him and DSJ could be the best point/center combo in the league. We’d have to lose out to get him. He is simply a man among children in the NCAA, and I think the concerns about drive are overstated.

[EricaLubarsky]

Trae has 48pts, 8ast, 5reb in a loss

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Trae has 48pts, 8ast, 5reb in a loss

If you score 48 on 40 shots you're part of the problem IMO.

Hate to take away from what he's doing at the collegiate level, but I don't think he has the size or speed to succeed at the next level. Steph Curry is significantly longer & bigger than Trae. I think Trae is more like Jimmer Fredette with handles.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by tap2390

If you score 48 on 40 shots you're part of the problem IMO.

I'm fine with it as long as he has Orlando talking about drafting him...

[Underdog]

Magic, Lakers, Nets all won today...

[EricaLubarsky]

Still number 4