I think it's over

[chumdawg]

I think was the day the hammer dropped. I think the race now belongs to Obama.

And I'm not just talking about the race for the nomination. I'm talking about the whole thing. What an interesting juxtaposition when CNN cut from Obama's speech to McCain's. If you were watching, you saw everything you need to know. Obama will absolutely destroy McCain in the general.

You can't beat Obama by saying that what he offers amounts to only "platitudes." You can't beat the surge of energy he is building by denigrating it.

And Obama, for his part, realizes the score. He didn't talk much about Hillary tonight. He talked a lot about McCain, though. Many people said that the Republicans would benefit from having a clear winner early on. It certainly doesn't seem so. The Republican race is over, and now Reoublicans have to face that sober moment when they realize that McCain is actually their man in the general. And there is no way for McCain to go up from here. He's only going to get less energetic as it goes along.

Obama, on the other hand, is still in a fight and will continue to be so for quite some time. America loves a fighter. McCain will get to play second fiddle for the next month or two, while Obama brings more and more people into the fold.

As for Hillary...the witch may not be dead yet, but March 4th just may see her final throes.

[wmbwinn]

Agree. I am pretty sure President Obama is something we will grow accustomed to saying...

As I have been saying since New Hampshire, McCain has absolutely no chance in the national contest.

Even if conservatives unite, Obama will win big. The only way McCain wins is if

1)he can unify the party
2)he can take a huge chunk away from Obama in the middle. I mean he has to convert Obama believers.

McCain is so old and boring and angry. How will he convert moderates and independents smitten with Obama?

He needs to grab Lieberman or someone else in the middle. He needs a partner and a campaign that competes with Obama's vision to ignore party extremes and politics as usual. McCain would do better with Ted Kennedy as his vice prez than Huckabee as his vice prez. That is probably too extreme. I'll retract Ted Kennedy. But, Lieberman is a good choice. Maybe he needs someone who is more energetic than Lieberman. Lieberman and McCain would be old and boring still. I'm not sure who McCain can grab to make a difference.

But, if McCain runs a traditional Republican campaign, he is going to get buried.

None of my writing is to be understood that I want McCain to win or intend to vote for him. Neither is true.

I'm just talking pragmatically about strategy.

The other way for McCain to win would be if he truly succeeded in unifying the party. But, McCain
1)hates evangelicals, calls them "agents of intolerance"
2)disagrees with conservatives on immigration although he has converted for expediency sake
3)disagrees about tax cuts although he has converted for expediency sake
4)lacks the moral backbone to fight effectively and believably for heterosexual marriage, traditional family values, abortion, etc.

It will take a miracle of planning and organization for McCain to have any chance.

And, of the two options for McCain, the only option that really fits him and is believable is for him to ask someone like Lieberman to be his vice prez and run hard to the middle and moderates and independents in a direct frontal attack to Obama's base.

[wmbwinn]

On the sunny optimistic side of life, for all of you Republicans who were so fond of saying, "anyone but Hillary", you have your wish. You won't have to worry about Hillary.

And, now that you Republicans have abandoned your Reagan era platform to pick a moderate/independent that you thought could beat Hillary, you are faced with the spectacle of complete annihilation and embarassment.

I agree with Newt Gingrich who says that Conservatives have to produce a Declaration of Independence that says that Conservatives are above and separate from the Republican party. Newt does not call for a third party candidate. But, he does call for Conservatives everywhere to unite at school and at the city and at the state to survive the dark years ahead of us...

[fluid.forty.one]

yeah I noticed the switch betwee Obama and McCain. My mood went from completely optimistic and inspired to tired and bored. I feel kinda bad for McCain cause he's a good guy.

[Janett_Reno]

Obama and Hillary have brought out more voters that McCain i do not think can over come. Look at the turnouts and the votes. Compare the numbers to the Republicans. It is going to be so many Democrats vote in the next election for the Democrat nominee, the Republicans will have to sign up new voters and energize the base. I feel Obama and or Hillary would get some Republican votes. McCain might beat Obama with Independents but i am not all sure about this and probably McCain beats Hillary with Independents.

I do not feel McCain can beat either over all. If McCain gets Libberman, that will just make the hard core conservatives even mader and they will feel like McCain is throwing more dirt in their face. It would be two Democrats vs two other Democrats. McCains age hurts him and all he has been thru. Bush hurts McCain because anything with Republican behind the name hurts in the next election.

One thing to remember, McCain had the best chance in the polls against a Democrat and also Rudy. Those was the two(polls showed). Most Republicans do not like either one. So see how the Republicans are split but in the long run i felt a true conservative had the best chance even though the polls did not show this and try to bring the base together around a real Republican. Not a Rudy, a Libberman or McCain. Those are half Democrats and Independents.

What is scarry for Hillary at this point, is she is going to have to do what Rudy did. Put all her eggs in one basket. Rudy did this with FL and that was a bad move and Hillary is forced to do this with Oh and Tx. Today she was up 17 in OH but things can change fast and this monh does not and will not look good for her but i would not completely count her out yet. I agree it looks bad for her but it is not like McCain and Huckabee.

One good thing for McCain, the election is along ways off and he has some time but a debate against Obama or Hillary, i don't think McCain would come out on top. One thing to remember, all this is not McCains fault or any of these Republicans but they have a ball and chain around their ankles and it is hard to shake it off. That ball and chain is W, Cheney and Ramsfield. That in the long run was going to be hard to shake off. Obama and or Hillary will try to drive that point home when they go one on one.

[Flacolaco]

Obama is so freaking liberal.

slow track to despotism....

[dude1394]

Don't count chickens in politics before they are hatched. Obama hasn't won the nomination and he sure as heck hasn't won the presidency.

I seem to recall that clinton was unbeatable 3months ago.

In fact I'm thinking strongly of pulling the lever for obama in texas, because I think he's easier to beat than clinton.

[u2sarajevo]

Any Republican that is convinced that the Republican candidate can win in November is fooling themselves silly.

The Obama/Clinton race is the NFC Championship of the 90's.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Don't count chickens in politics before they are hatched. Obama hasn't won the nomination and he sure as heck hasn't won the presidency.

I seem to recall that clinton was unbeatable 3months ago.

In fact I'm thinking strongly of pulling the lever for obama in texas, because I think he's easier to beat than clinton.

That's a true enough point, dude, about it not being over until it's over. I think you are about my age, so I'm sure you remember Clayton Williams' big screwup in the gubernatorial race against Ann Richards.

But, Obama is smarter than that. And, the closer it gets to the end the harder it gets to screw it up.

I'm close to pulling the lever for Obama, too, but it's not for some idea that it will propel McCain to the presidency. McCain is Dole Light. The Republicans can't be serious about thinking they can win this thing--as U2 comments.

[dude1394]

I also remember lots of liberal candidates who were all the rage and "destined" to win. But when the people had to pull the lever for someone after hearing them articulate what they will really do, they didn't want to take that kind of chance.

Howard Dean, McGovern, Dukakis...

I have no problem with the most left candidate in history trying to win the election, not much of one at all.

Again..I still feel he's the much easier opponent.

[dude1394]

When the opposing candidate is one with little substance, I see no reason not to think he's imminently beatable.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dude1394

I also remember lots of liberal candidates who were all the rage and "destined" to win. But when the people had to pull the lever for someone after hearing them articulate what they will really do, they didn't want to take that kind of chance.

Howard Dean, McGovern, Dukakis...

I have no problem with the most left candidate in history trying to win the election, not much of one at all.

Again..I still feel he's the much easier opponent.

Dean? Dukakis? McGovern is a little before my time, but I can tell you about the other two. Neither one of those were able to inspire people like Obama is now. (And I'm not sure why Dean is even in this conversation.) Both were up against more formidable candidates.

You may think that Obama is the most left candidate in history, but you would have to yell long and hard at the top of your lungs to get other people to believe that.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dude1394

When the opposing candidate is one with little substance, I see no reason not to think he's imminently beatable.

Character is 90% of substance. And it is, for the most part, why Bush won the nomination and the election in 2000.

[u2sarajevo]

Is Obama over the top liberal though? I can't honestly say I have seen proof of this. He has stated his position on one of my litmus tests, but I haven't really researched him fully.

Wasn't it just last month that he was comparing himself to the greatest modern President we have ever had? If that's true he can't be that liberal.

[chumdawg]

Maybe the country needs a good dose of liberalism right now. After all, is there anything inherently evil or bad about liberalism?

[Dirkadirkastan]

Just please God, let it not be Clinton.

[Evilmav2]

I will be voting for a Clinton for the first, and almost certainly, only time in my life on March 4. F*** Obama and his Triumph of the Will style hour+ long speeches that don't say anything substantive, but leave children and fools crying and fainting over sh*t vapors and nonsense. American political contests should ideally at least pretend to focus on substantive ideals and real policy debate, not vapidly hollow and potentially dangerous prettiness and celebrity, so I say again, F*** Obama and the corrupt and stricken whores' mare of popular trash culture that he rides so surely and prettily upon...


Oh Pestilence, you are Obama's Bitch Mare.

[Evilmav2]

Change and Hope; Atop it's Bitch-Mare.

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by u2sarajevo

Is Obama over the top liberal though? I can't honestly say I have seen proof of this. He has stated his position on one of my litmus tests, but I haven't really researched him fully.

Wasn't it just last month that he was comparing himself to the greatest modern President we have ever had? If that's true he can't be that liberal.

this shows how good he is at hiding his positions. He's more liberal than Hillary. I think he's the only one who is all for partial birth abortions, for instance.

[kg_veteran]

I won't say that Obama can't win in the general election, but I think that it's a big mistake to think that he will win by sheer force of his charisma, as many of you seem to think. dude is exactly right when he points out that Obama is the most liberal candidate in the race.

When Obama's record comes to light (and it will) and when his positions on the issues come to light (and they will, I think he is going to have a tough time winning it all.

EDIT: Just so you know, I'm not saying any of this as a McCain supporter. I don't want a President McCain, either.

[Kirobaito]

Just to remind you, though, that if Clinton wins Texas and Ohio, this is entirely different.

Obama is on a great run right now, but I don't think this is over yet.

[Jack.Kerr]

1) It's not over.

2) Obama might be a strong candidate for the nomination, but he will be a dangerously weak candidate, opposed by Clinton supporters within his own party, and Republicans without.

3) Who's to say that H.Clinton might not mount an independent campaign? She'd sap a shitload of votes from Obama.

Tough times ahead, and I would prefer someone who knows how to throw an elbow, not a Golden Boy.

[mcsluggo]

Yeah, I am having a VERY hard time writing off this election at this point...

** Mac is poular in the middle (centist dems and reps alike).

** Who the hell ELSE are real conservatives going to vote for?

** Obama is fairly far to the left on some issues.

**A true atwater/rove smear campaign is in the cards... and usually that sort of filth is pretty effective (It is amazing how much grief as the billary campaign has gotten for going negative, for the most part they have avoided hitting the negative points like the plague... possibly to their detriment)

this election is far FAR from over........

[Mavdog]

yep, obama doesn't have the democratic nomination wrapped up yet, and if hillary is the winner of ohio and tx on march 4 she, not obama, will be the nominee.

for those who claim that obama is "left of hillary" or a "far left liberal", please educate yourself. obama is as much of a centrist as bill was when he was elected. obama is more centrist than kerry ran as.

as for november it's tough to have a crystal ball this early. the election will be affected by what happens in iraq (the violence increases, iraq becomes more important) and the nation's economy (a strong recession helps the dems).

as yogi berra said, it isn't over until it's over....

[Underdog]

Hillary will be President...

Nukes will rain...

2012 conspiracy theorists will have a field day for the next 4 years...

You heard it here first!





^^(the "cool guy" icon is a severely underrated emote...)




^^(the "Hillary attempting to smile" icon is underrated too...)

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

for those who claim that obama is "left of hillary" or a "far left liberal", please educate yourself. obama is as much of a centrist as bill was when he was elected. obama is more centrist than kerry ran as.

the National Journal ranks Obama as the #1 most liberal senator in '07 to Hillary's 16th, and ranks him 10th to Hillary's 32nd for '06. McCain is around 50-60 for '06, but didn't vote enough to be ranked in '07.

edit
06: http://nationaljournal.com/voteratin...ite&o2=desc#vr
07: http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

[horse900703]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

Obama is so freaking liberal.

slow track to despotism....

I AGREE~~~

[Mavdog]

this ranking system by the national review is odd....they assign a "liberal" tag to voting yes to reinstitute the "pay as you go" budget offsets on new spending. isn't that opposite of what conservative positions should be?

a vote to increase the deficit ceiling is "conservative" while a vote agaisnt raising the ceiling is "liberal"???

odd.

[ShaggyDirk]

Anton Chigurh for President!

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

this ranking system by the national review is odd....they assign a "liberal" tag to voting yes to reinstitute the "pay as you go" budget offsets on new spending. isn't that opposite of what conservative positions should be?

a vote to increase the deficit ceiling is "conservative" while a vote agaisnt raising the ceiling is "liberal"???

odd.

reduction to a single number (well, 2 because they rank "conservativeness", too) is quirky, but the list looks pretty intuitive.

[Mavdog]

hey, can't criticise the ranking too much, they did the research and came up with a methodology.

loooking at obama's proposals like the one wm posted on healthcare, obama is inviting the private sector to the table to work thru the specifics, while clinton puts the private sector on the other side of the table, and that's only to publicly beat them up. obama has prioritized fiscal issues, commits to paygo with emphasis to fiscal discipline. clinton doesn't mention the budget other than the occasional "we did well in the 90's...".

obama's campaign is taking the more moderate course to me, and while my vantage point may colour that view the positions/proposals seem to support it.

[Kirobaito]

And to be fair, it's about time we take off our Cold War anti-socialism blinders off. It's been nearly 20 years.

[mcsluggo]

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

reduction to a single number (well, 2 because they rank "conservativeness", too) is quirky, but the list looks pretty intuitive.

a bit convieniet that the methodology was tweaked so that Kerry ranked number 1 Liberal in 2004 and Obama ranked #1 liberal in 2008...

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

a bit convieniet that the methodology was tweaked so that Kerry ranked number 1 Liberal in 2004 and Obama ranked #1 liberal in 2008...

well, they are psychic. Not only did they formulate the rankings before the primaries were decided, they even ranked Obama #2 last year!

[dalmations202]

Originally Posted by mcsluggo

Yeah, I am having a VERY hard time writing off this election at this point...

** Mac is poular in the middle (centist dems and reps alike).

** Who the hell ELSE are real conservatives going to vote for?

** Obama is fairly far to the left on some issues.

**A true atwater/rove smear campaign is in the cards... and usually that sort of filth is pretty effective (It is amazing how much grief as the billary campaign has gotten for going negative, for the most part they have avoided hitting the negative points like the plague... possibly to their detriment)

this election is far FAR from over........

That is the question I have been asking..........................

[jacktruth]

After nominations were certain, Michael Dukakis had a 17 point lead in the polls over Bush 41.
Al Gore also had a double-digit lead over Bush 43. Kerry may have also.

This race is far from over.

[Jack.Kerr]

Don't cry for Hillary yet: New polls give her edge in crucial contests

BY MICHAEL SAUL
DAILY NEWS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT

Thursday, February 14th 2008, 11:14 AM
Gershon/Getty

Hillary Clinton greets a young supporter at a campaign stop in El Paso, Texas on Tuesday. Poll results released Thursday give a much-needed boost to her campaign after a string of losses.

Hillary Clinton holds commanding leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two of the three upcoming mega-states that will determine the fate of her White House ambitions.

Clinton leads Obama 55% to 34% among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio, and she's besting him 52% to 36% in Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University polls released today.

After losing eight contests to Obama in the span of four days, Clinton and her campaign are now looking to the remaining big states - Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania - to halt the Illinois senator's political momentum.

Ohio and Texas, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, hold primaries on March 4. The Pennsylvania primary is April 22.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, voters in the Buckeye and Keystone states consider the economy, not the war in Iraq, as the most important issue.

"Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"It is blue-collar America, with a smaller percentage of both Democrats with college educations and African- Americans than in many other states where Sen. Obama has carried the day," Brown said. "If Clinton can't win the primary there, it is very difficult to see how she stops Obama."

Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton 56% to 30% while men back her 52% to 42%. Clinton leads 64% to 28% among white Democrats, while Obama leads 64% to 17% among black voters.

In Pennsylvania, white Democrats side with Clinton 58% to 31%, with men favoring her 49% to 39% and women pad her lead by 20 points.

[Jack.Kerr]

Also saw one of Barak's campaign consultants saying that if Hillary didn't win by more than 10 in Texas, it wasn't really a win for her.

Is that some downspin or what?

[Rhylan]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Maybe the country needs a good dose of liberalism right now. After all, is there anything inherently evil or bad about liberalism?

Liberalism is the use of the state as a tool to manage or solve problems. Doing that means giving authority to the state. Every time you give authority to the state, you take liberty away from the individual.

There's a fine balance, and the balance is too far on the government side for me, as a 27 year old, first generation college grad, from little ol' Hamilton TX, who just goes to work every day, pays too much in taxes and is already considered "wealthy" by Democrat standards of tax policy. No thank you.

[nashtymavsfan13]

I fully expected this to be a completely negative post about the Mavericks bleak future.