Mavs upcoming schedule

[Waschdel]

Talking about the game against the Lakers we shouldn´t forget that they´ll play at SA today, while the Mavs had two days of rest. I also think that the Mavs will have a little extra motivation bc it is still something special to beat Kobe and his garnishing.

[Murphy3]

The Mavs are sitting at 8-2 right now during the stretch that I looked at a few weeks back.
Here's what they have left:

Pacers 16-13
Rockets 16-16
At Spurs 26-7
Nets 11-20
Wizards 17-13
Clippers 16-15
at Bobcats 8-21
Nuggets 14-17
at Clippers 16-15
at Portland 14-16
Philadelphia 15-16

That's a combined record of 169-169...but, take out the Spurs and it's 143-162 for a 46.9% winning percentage.

Let's dig just a bit deeper. In the last 10 games for each team, here's there record:

Pacers 6-4
Rockets 6-4
At Spurs 8-2
Nets 4-6
Wizards 5-5
Clippers 4-6
at Bobcats 3-7
Nuggets 2-8
at Clippers 5-5
at Portland 4-6
Philadelphia 6-4

Record durin the last 10: 53-57 for a 48.2% winning eprcentage. Minus the Spurs: 45-55 for a 45% winning percentage.

Obviously, the Spurs are hot. Indiana has beaten some very weak opponents to rattle off a 4 game winning streak. Houston's playing a bit better as is Philadelphia, but I'm not extremely impressed with what I've seen out of either team. For the most part, besides the Spurs and maybe the Pacers, no on e is really playing that well out of the teams remainign on their schedule through January.


Ok, how are the teams playing against the Western Conference?

Pacers 5-10
Rockets 10-8
At Spurs 14-5
Nets 2-9
Wizards 4-5
Clippers 8-12
at Bobcats 4-7
Nuggets 4-12
at Clippers 8-12
at Portland 5-10
Philadelphia 5-10

Record against the Western Conference: 69-100 for a 40.8% winning percentage. Minus the Spurs: 55-95 for a 36.7% winning percentage.

Basically, the Spurs are dominant versus either conference. Houston hasn't played poorly versus the West. But, besides that, none of the teams have performed well versus the West.


Let's look at one last thing. What is their record playing where they will be playing the Mavs (obviously, either at home or on the road)

Pacers 7-7
Rockets 5-8
At Spurs 15-1
Nets 5-12
Wizards 7-8
Clippers 5-7
at Bobcats 7-8
Nuggets 4-10
at Clippers 11-8
at Portland 8-5
Philadelphia 8-10

Record: 82-84 for a 49.4% winning percentage. Record minus the Spurs: 67-83 for a 44.67%. Obviously, the Spurs are dominant at home. But, other than that, the Clippers have a nice 11-8 record at home.


Basically, I think they can get to the minimum 17-4 record that I had hoped for.

[Pongo]

Indiana is without artest, jackson and pollard --> Must win
Rockets did a horrible trade, at least thats what I think, plus they have nobody to guard Dirk (well, nobody can) --> W
Spurs... SA is tough to beat, especially on the road --> L
Nets aren't doing to good after the VC trade, have a horrible frontcourt: Win
Wizards.. play better than expected, but this should be a Win
Clippers... well they're the Clippers... W
Bobcats... Must W, even though they beat the t-wolves yesterday
Nuggets... arent playing as good as most sport writers thought... Mavs won the last two matchups... W
at Clippers... same as above... they have some talent and are playing at home, but Dallas should pull of a W
at Portland... Blazers aren't playing constant at all... but they play at home and have tons of talent --> doubtful W
76ers: Mavs should win even though AI is playing some good ball lately: W


Realistic prediction: 9-2
Optimistic prediction: 10-1

[Waschdel]

9 - 2 now. As KG posted before they better continue to collect some momentum before the game in SA and beat the Rockets. On a side note: The Mavs are still unbeaten in games broadcasted over here and the next one that will be shown is the Spurs game...

[#41]

Originally posted by: Waschdel
9 - 2 now. As KG posted before they better continue to collect some momentum before the game in SA and beat the Rockets. On a side note: The Mavs are still unbeaten in games broadcasted over here and the next one that will be shown is the Spurs game...

Spurs will get their asses kicked, too. Maybe not another blowout win for german TV, but at least a W, I pray... ( Spurs are 0-2 when opponent=Seattle scores 100+ )

[aexchange]

just thought i'd bump this thread during our favorable stretch and see how we did.

at Rockets 8-11 W
at Bulls 3-13 W
Warriors 5-13 L
Hawks 3-15 W
at Knicks 9-9 W
at Hawks 3-15 L
at Nuggets 11-7 W
Celtics 7-10 W
Bucks 5-11 W
Lakers 10-8 W
Pacers 10-8 W
Rockets 8-11
at Spurs 16-4
Nets 5-13
Wizards 10-6
Clippers 11-7
at Bobcats 4-12
Nuggets 11-7
at Clippers 11-7
at Trail Blazers 8-8
76ers 6-12

[Murphy3]

Basically, the Mavs need to go 8-2 to reach the 17-4 mark over the easy stretch of schedule.

It's definitely possible. I'd say about 50-50 as to whether or not they make it. They need to win 2 of the next 3 to have a really good chance....

[FilthyFinMavs]

I honestly don't think the Mavs lose to the Spurs like some are predicting. I don't think the Mavs win out in these stretch of games but I don't know something about the Mavs leads me to believe they won't choke in San Antonio.

[vinnieponte]

positive thinking but it wont happen. We will win against houston making it 6 straight wins but we will loose friday against the spurs. I hate to say it but it's true, and ifn't, I'll be happy that I was wrong.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally posted by: vinnieponte
positive thinking but it wont happen. We will win against houston making it 6 straight wins but we will loose friday against the spurs. I hate to say it but it's true, and ifn't, I'll be happy that I was wrong.

wanna bet?

[chumdawg]

The Spurs will be lucky if they aren't down 20 at the half.

[sike]

Originally posted by: chumdawg
The Spurs will be lucky if they aren't down 20 at the half.

I love it.

[vinnieponte]

Originally posted by: EricaLubarsky

wanna bet?

LOL.....erica, remmember what happened the last 2 times you bet the spurs would beat us, I WON!. And hey, I never got anything for winning, so what will the stakes be. I offer up once again the same bet, a pair of my season tickets, now its your turn, what do I get????

[Waschdel]

[quote]
Originally posted by: Murphy3
The Mavs are sitting at 8-2 right now during the stretch that I looked at a few weeks back.

11-4 at this point of the favorable stretch.

Here's what they have left:


Clippers
at Bobcats
Nuggets
at Clippers
at Portland
Philadelphia

It won´t be easy to collect six wins but Murphy´s 17-4 prediction is still possible.

[EricaLubarsky]

to be honest, the at blazers and at clippers scare me the most.

[Murphy3]

If the Mavs play as soft as they did in the second half last night, the Clippers will beat the Mavs by 20.

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
If the Mavs play as soft as they did in the second half last night, the Clippers will beat the Mavs by 20.

Yeah, but should we really expect that? It was hard for the Mavs to play with the same level of intensity when they were up huge. Is that a little disappointing? Sure, but certainly not a lot. I wish three of the starters hadn't played at least 40 minutes, but other than that I could care less.

The Spurs are going to soften up the Clippers tonight like they did the Wizards on Monday night. The Mavs will get the W tomorrow.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran

Yeah, but should we really expect that?

Oh no, I don't expect that at all. I expect the Mavs to be embarrassed by their defense in the second half and to come out and shut down the Clippers.

[Waschdel]

[quote]
Originally posted by: Waschdel

Originally posted by: Murphy3
The Mavs are sitting at 8-2 right now during the stretch that I looked at a few weeks back.

11-4 at this point of the favorable stretch.

Here's what they have left:


Clippers
at Bobcats
Nuggets
at Clippers
at Portland
Philadelphia

It won´t be easy to collect six wins but Murphy´s 17-4 prediction is still possible.

With the loss against the Clippers Mavs will finish the stretch at 16-5 (assuming that they´ll win the game against Philly).
Here´s what comes up in February:
Miami
at New Orleans
at Indiana
at Toronto
Chicago
at Sacramento
at Seattle
at Golden State
at Utah
Sacramento
Phoenix
New Orleans

It is not as easy as it was in January but I think Mavs could finish that stretch at 9-3 or 8-4. The road games in Indiana, Seattle and Utah are scary. I don´t know why - but Sacto doesn´t scare me at all. With a healthier starting five even 10-2 isn´t out of reach.

[V2M]

Originally posted by: Waschdel


With the loss against the Clippers Mavs will finish the stretch at 16-5 (assuming that they´ll win the game against Philly).
Here´s what comes up in February:
Miami
at New Orleans
at Indiana
at Toronto
Chicago
at Sacramento
at Seattle
at Golden State
at Utah
Sacramento
Phoenix
New Orleans

It is not as easy as it was in January but I think Mavs could finish that stretch at 9-3 or 8-4. The road games in Indiana, Seattle and Utah are scary. I don´t know why - but Sacto doesn´t scare me at all. With a healthier starting five even 10-2 isn´t out of reach.

Waschdel, I believe, you missed a @Phx game (on 2/17) beteween @GS and @Utah.

I'll try to use some simple probability theory to come up with a guesstimate for wins/losses. I'll use the expected value theory and try to predict the expected win probability for each game and then consolidate that for all 13 games to come up with a final win/loss number. I'll presume the teams all stay healthy and play relatively at the same level they've done so far.

This is the first time I'm attempting something like this for NBA. So excuse me if I make any glaring errors.

1. (2/1) Miaimi at home: Both teams are well-rested. I give a 70-30 chance for a Mavs win (ie: Mavs would win 7 out of 10 such games)

2. (2/2) NO on road: Mavs play back-to-back on road. NO is rested and playing half-decent lately. I'd say 70-30 Mavs win.

3. (2/4) Ind on road: Both teams with a day's rest. But w/ Artest out, I expect 60-40 in favor of Dallas.

4. (2/6) Tor on road: Both teams with day's rest. I expect 70-30 Dallas.

5. (2/8) Chi at home: Both teams rest well but Chi is the hottest team right now. Playing at home, I expect 70-30 Dallas.

6. (2/11) Sac on road: Dallas gets a day rest while Sac plays B2B. I expect a 60-40 Dallas win.

7. (2/13) Sea on road: Both get a day rest but since we're on road against a top-5 team, I'd say 40-60 Dallas.

8. (2/15) GS on road: Both get a day rest. I'd say 80-20 Dallas win.

9. (2/17) Phx on road: Phx gets 2 days rest. I expect 30-70 Dallas.

10.(2/23) Utah on road: 1st game after all-star break. With Kirilenko back, this could go either way. I expect 50-50 Dallas.

11. (2/24) Sac at home: Sac gets a day rest while we play B2B. I'd say 40-60 Dallas.

12. (2/26) Phx at home: Phx again plays us w/ 2 days rest. At home, I'd say 60-40 Dallas.

13. (2/28) NO at home: NO playing B2B on road. I expect 90-10 Dallas.

If you add 'em all up, that's 790-510. So that gives us a mean expected value of about 8-5 for the month.

Obviously, I'd like to see a better result than that. Losing 5 games in a short month is not good. But given we're playing some really tough teams, especially on the road, anything less than 5 losses should be construed as a very good month for Dallas.

[Waschdel]

Waschdel, I believe, you missed a @Phx game (on 2/17) beteween @GS and @Utah.

I'll try to use some simple probability theory to come up with a guesstimate for wins/losses. I'll use the expected value theory and try to predict the expected win probability for each game and then consolidate that for all 13 games to come up with a final win/loss number. I'll presume the teams all stay healthy and play relatively at the same level they've done so far.

This is the first time I'm attempting something like this for NBA. So excuse me if I make any glaring errors.

1. (2/1) Miaimi at home: Both teams are well-rested. I give a 70-30 chance for a Mavs win (ie: Mavs would win 7 out of 10 such games)

2. (2/2) NO on road: Mavs play back-to-back on road. NO is rested and playing half-decent lately. I'd say 70-30 Mavs win.

3. (2/4) Ind on road: Both teams with a day's rest. But w/ Artest out, I expect 60-40 in favor of Dallas.

4. (2/6) Tor on road: Both teams with day's rest. I expect 70-30 Dallas.

5. (2/8) Chi at home: Both teams rest well but Chi is the hottest team right now. Playing at home, I expect 70-30 Dallas.

6. (2/11) Sac on road: Dallas gets a day rest while Sac plays B2B. I expect a 60-40 Dallas win.

7. (2/13) Sea on road: Both get a day rest but since we're on road against a top-5 team, I'd say 40-60 Dallas.

8. (2/15) GS on road: Both get a day rest. I'd say 80-20 Dallas win.

9. (2/17) Phx on road: Phx gets 2 days rest. I expect 30-70 Dallas.

10.(2/23) Utah on road: 1st game after all-star break. With Kirilenko back, this could go either way. I expect 50-50 Dallas.

11. (2/24) Sac at home: Sac gets a day rest while we play B2B. I'd say 40-60 Dallas.

12. (2/26) Phx at home: Phx again plays us w/ 2 days rest. At home, I'd say 60-40 Dallas.

13. (2/28) NO at home: NO playing B2B on road. I expect 90-10 Dallas.

If you add 'em all up, that's 790-510. So that gives us a mean expected value of about 8-5 for the month.

Obviously, I'd like to see a better result than that. Losing 5 games in a short month is not good. But given we're playing some really tough teams, especially on the road, anything less than 5 losses should be construed as a very good month for Dallas.[/quote]

Great job V2M! You were right, I forgot the road game in Phoenix. And I agree with you that less than 5 losses could be considered as a successful month for the Mavs. Winnig 10+ games is something optimists and homers could dream of.

[bo319]

So taking a small leap of faith that we win the Philly game at home and are 29-13 at month's end...that means if you are correct we will be 37-18 going into March.
That will leave us 27 games left and a winning % of .673% which over 82 games will be 55 wins. That is about what we can expect.

[PepperTheMavsFan41]

at Sacramento
at Seattle
at Golden State
at Utah
Sacramento
Phoenix

YOOOOOZAH!

[V2M]

Originally posted by: Waschdel


Great job V2M! You were right, I forgot the road game in Phoenix. And I agree with you that less than 5 losses could be considered as a successful month for the Mavs. Winnig 10+ games is something optimists and homers could dream of.

Thanks Waschdel.

[V2M]

Originally posted by: bo319
So taking a small leap of faith that we win the Philly game at home and are 29-13 at month's end...that means if you are correct we will be 37-18 going into March.
That will leave us 27 games left and a winning % of .673% which over 82 games will be 55 wins. That is about what we can expect.

March & April seem easier than Feb. If we end up at 37-18 going into March, I'd be disappointed if we're only at 55 wins for the season. Probably 57 or even 58 is what I'd expect if we stay healthy.