A pair of questions

[Chiwas]

Is there a single poll that shows Kerry ahead?

Might the fraction of voters still undecided make Kerry win?

[knowitall]

Not likely on both questions, Chiwas. Most Americans feel that war is always the answer. Even when it isn't.

[dude1394]

Chiwas...The definitive place that has polls in my mind is realclearpolitics.com...

Here is a list of the polls they use for their averages. It looks like the last one that had kerry ahead was the harris poll on 9/13 or so. +1..

realclear

Great site by the way, with sort of a drudgereport pull from many sources.

[Dooby]

I won't editorialize, or respond to editorializing, but in answer to your question, Chiwas, "No." Kerry can still win, as a lot of Bush's lead is pretty soft. Factor in what undecideds there are, and Kerry can win, but time is running out.

Candidates that have turned things around in the debates include Bush and Reagan. They have done so, not by answering the questions they are asked, but answering the questions that are in the back of voters' minds-Reagan's age, for example. On Thursday night, Kerry must present an image of strong convictions and decisiveness. If he fails to do that, I think the race is over.

[Chiwas]

Poll Date Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo Spread

RCP Average 9/20 - 9/27 49.3% 43.4% 1.9% Bush +5.9
IBD/TIPP (649 LV) 9/22 - 9/27 45% 45% 2% TIE
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV) 9/24 - 9/26 52% 44% 3% Bush +8
ABC News/WP (810 LV) 9/23 - 9/26 51% 45% 1% Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV) 9/22 - 9/26 48% 40% 2% Bush +8
Time (877 LV) 9/21 - 9/23 48% 42% 5% Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV) 9/21 - 9/22 46% 42% 1% Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/20 - 9/23 50% 45% 0% Bush +5
Marist (630 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 50% 44% 2% Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 51% 42% 2% Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV) 9/17 - 9/21 45% 42% 3% Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 50% 46% 1% Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV) 9/17 - 9/19 46% 43% 1% Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV) 9/14 - 9/18 45% 42% 2% Bush +3
ARG (LV) 9/7 - 9/21 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV) 9/12 - 9/16 50% 41% 3% Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV)** 9/12 - 9/15 49% 45% 1% Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV) 9/11 - 9/14 47% 46% 1% Bush +1
Harris (867 LV) 9/9 - 9/13 47% 48% 2% Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV) 9/9 - 9/10 49% 43% 2% Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV) 9/7 - 9/12 46% 46% 3% TIE
Zogby (1018 LV) 9/8 - 9/9 46% 42% 2% Bush +4
Time (857 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 52% 41% 3% Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV) 9/7 - 9/9 51% 46% 1% Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV) 9/7 - 9/8 47% 43% 3% Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV) 9/6 - 9/8 52% 43% 2% Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV) 9/8 - 9/10 54% 38% 2% Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8 49% 42% 1% Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV) 9/3 - 9/5 52% 45% 1% Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV) 9/2 - 9/3 52% 41% 3% Bush +11
Time (926 LV) 8/31 - 9/2 52% 41% 3% Bush +11
Zogby (1001 LV) 8/30 - 9/2 46% 43% 3% Bush +3
ARG (800 LV) 8/30 - 9/1 47% 47% 3% TIE