Overreactions to a Losing Streak

[ddh33]

Welcome to my overreactions of a losing streak.

First of all, this losing streak is probably forgivable and justified considering the schedule and injuries. What's hurts is knowing that these games have been very winnable for the most part.

But after this many games, it's possible to start seeing some trends.

1. This team has almost no chance without Dirk. I know that the guys played well against Minnesota before eventually giving way, but it seems more than ever that Dallas needs a strong game from Dirk to win. Granted, he's a star, but that's a lot of pressure to put on the guy because not only is he the primary scorer, he's now the primary everything...

2. I want Finley back. I can't begin to overestimate Fin's worth to this team. Anyone begging for someone other than Dirk who can knock down open jumpers consistently? I still think Fin is the glue to this team as well.

3. Welcome to the wonderful, strange world of Erick Dampier. Admit it, on one hand part of you wants to die when the guy bobbles a pass, misses a free throw, makes a silly turnover, or commits a foul 25 feet from the bucket. You hate seeing the stat lines that look horrible to non-existant. On the other hand, you notice that the defense isn't even close to the same when he isn't on the floor. He clogs the lane and can look like a moster at times. He's a presence out there. But I have this feeling that this whole situation might be a bumpy ride.

4. This team needs more creativity. I guess this one falls on the PGs. Devin Harris really shows something. I already think we are seeing that things look better when he's on the floor. He's still a rook though, and the offense doesn't look anything close to as smooth as I would like. There's hope in knowing that can continue to develop. When I watch the team in general, however, I still see way too much one-on-one play. There isn't enough good passing. Terry has had an ankle issue that gives him a little bit of leeway, but he hasn't looked very comfortable to me.

5. Jerry Stackhouse is going to be a lightning rod of criticism for this team. People will love the 30 points outbursts. They'll cringe at the bad shots and 20% nights. Believe it or not, I think he and Daniels miss Finley as much as anyone.

6. Howard is a stud. I don't know what else to say about the kid except he's off-limits. He isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He defends, rebounds, handles the ball, and scores better than you might think. The future is bright. Daniels looks a little slower. I'm going to blame the ankle, but I think he'll improve as the season goes along. I like his work on the boards, but I worry about the ballhanding and decision making. It's been shoddy at times. I maintain that he is a 2 who can handle - not a 1 who scores. I don't like him at the point.

7. Bradley looked good in the early season. I haven't seen much of him lately. I'm hoping he gets back on the court more soon. I thought he was doing some nice things for the team. Booth has been better with more minutes, but the brain farts kill me. And if Alan Henderson had any athletic ability anymore he might be a heck of a player. As is, he's a pro who does his job as well as he can.

Alright, there are my observations for the early season. Are these things trends or just a new team ironing out the kinks?

[EricaLubarsky]

Where the h@ll was Bradley last night. We were outplayed in every single quarter. It would have at least been an experiment, with very little downside and a lot of possible upside.

[mediocre_life]

at ease man.,.,.Give them some time ,, they'll be fine . Look at the Pistons(5-6) , they are struggling as of now, but i do believe they'll be fine as the season goes on., so as the mavs. In fact , they're doin just fine even with dirk,damp,JT,Fin and Quis hurt. Imagine if they are healthy.We have 8 of them on the roster capable scoring double digits and can play D too (dirk's D is improving). If the time comes that they will all play what they are capable of, ,,, man ...spurs,t-wolves,kings and even phoenix are in trouble .If you'll talk about chemistry, i can say they r getting together quickly as of 13 games they have played. Just be patient, larry o'brien is at bay.If things doesnt go right with them til the season ends, Nellie is in trouble

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yeah, I'm not sure how henderson gets minutes over Benga or Bradley. Henderson is a Juwan Howard who can't score or do anything except rebound. The mavs just look like they don't give a damn except Dirk. I feel like there may be some internal problems because players, especially Terry, just don't look that happy to be out on the court.

[grndmstr_c]

jasonterryshouldstart

[DevinHarriswillstart]

What grounds should he start? He's injured and hasn't done squat to warrant starting. I really thought he could play point before the season started but what has he done to prove he can run the point? One decent 13 points 11 assist game. Sorry, he is more of a 2 guard.

[Murphy3]

The Mavs have to have someone that can make the opponent pay when Dirk is doubled. They have some guys that can make them pay by cutting to the bucket, but they really have no one besides fin that can make them pay by drilling the open jumper.

[fin4life]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
The Mavs have to have someone that can make the opponent pay when Dirk is doubled. They have some guys that can make them pay by cutting to the bucket, but they really have no one besides fin that can make them pay by drilling the open jumper.

Very true, the mavs are really struggling without Finley. I know that I am a little biased... If the mavs can keep Finley, Dampier, and Dirk healthy, we will have no problems. Those are the three most important components of our team. We can play without stack, Terry, Quis, or even Howard. But when one of those three go down, we will have serious problems. Finley's absense is the reason that we are losing these games, and when he returns we will be back to our winning ways.

[grndmstr_c]

What grounds should he start? He's injured and hasn't done squat to warrant starting. I really thought he could play point before the season started but what has he done to prove he can run the point? One decent 13 points 11 assist game. Sorry, he is more of a 2 guard.

What grounds? How about the grounds that Jason's been our second most effective backcourt player this season behind Finley? How about the grounds that he's put up 1.2 points per scoring attempt (includes free throws) as compared to .93 points per scoring attempt by Devin? How about the fact that he's attempted to score about 42 times less than Devin in only 26 fewer minutes (funny that you should criticize Terry for being a SG)? How about the grounds that he's averaging more assists and fewer TO's than Devin? How about the fact that the Mavs are +7.2 points per 48 minutes with JT at the point and -.5 per 48 with Devin at the point? How about the fact that the Mavs have outscored opponents by 21 points per 48 minutes when Terry and Dirk have shared the floor as compared to 8.6 points when Devin and Dirk have shared the floor? Don't get me wrong. I'm still excited about having Devin; he's just not justifying his starting spot or his minutes with his play, and if you can't see that Terry's done considerably more good for the team in his time on the floor then you're blind. If Devin can't start playing smarter and more effectively by the time Jason recovers from his injury I'll be more than just a little irritated if a change in the starting lineup isn't made.

[basketball jonessss]

Just the facts baby.

Nice post.

[vjz]

Great post. Can't agree more, especially about Finley. We need him back. Now!

[dalmations202]

Since this is an over-reactions topic, I'll list my observations as well:

1) Defense has been stressed (Great move), but to the point that the offense being run is awful.
2) Offense is run through Dirk now (Great move), but no offside cutting, Fin being hurt kills the spot up stuff, and it is feast or famine with Dirk, and looks awful the one-one play the rest of the game. Seldom is an offense run at all, it is just throw the ball to Dirk, and get to the corners, and let him drive or shoot. Very few cutters, picks and spot up shooters. Almost no dump downs.
3) Dallas doesn't push the ball near as often -- fewer fast breaks.
4) Nellie doesn't utilize Bradley worth a poop. Bradley can impact every game - usually positively. He cannot really do it over about 10-20 min a night though, because the other teams adjust. Nellie needs to learn how/when to use Bradley to change the tempo of the game.
5) Nellie needs to play Benga more, and Booth less. Benga is more athletic, and is just about as good as Booth has been offensively here lately. (non-existent)
6) Although Henderson is pretty good at rebounding and clean-up. He needs to play a little less, and Dallas needs a better backup PF. When Dirk is in the game, everything goes through him (Great) -- when he leaves, everything changes, and they look lost.
7) Fin's spot up shooting is greatly missed. No one except Terry seems to be able to do that when Dirk gets doubled.
8) Howard has looked great this year, and deserves to keep starting, even when Fin returns.
9) Something is still up with Daniels. He is not playing with the fire he did last year. He doesn't seem to be having fun.
10) Stack is for real, but he needs to be a second option on the court, and not try to carry the load. (at least not unless they change the offense)
11) Damp does have an impact -- unfortunately, like Shawn Bradley, it is sometimes more negative than positive.
12) Dickau has shown NOTHING.... he needs to shoot spot up threes and prove his worth, instead of trying to drive. His drive looks goofy.
13) Harris looks like he has potential, but shows he is a rookie every game.

[MikeB]

Overreactions or not...here are some of my observations:

1)No player movement - Nellie seems to only be running 1 play over and over again...throw the ball to Dirk at the high post and stand and watch him...this isn't working.
2)Nellie's player rotations - as usual Nellie's substitution patterns are strange. Damp goes for 11 and 9 and then sits the last 15 minutes? I am starting to believe that Nellie really can't deal with a big man.
3)Timeouts to stop other teams runs - Nellie as usual waits till we lose the entire lead before trying to stop the other teams momentum...he should watch more Spurs games and see how Pop calls timeouts...one bad moment and Pop gets them over to the bench for some straightening out...Nellie could use some of that.

[rakesh.s]

I think the dampier situation could also be attributed to him not getting many scoring opportunities.

stackhouse sucks..he is a career 39% shooter..antoine walker in a shooting guard's body. At least walker could play "point forward". I'm not a big Finley lover but I think he is significantly better than stackhouse and they need to get him back asap.

Jason Kidd will be here at the trade deadline....they'll give him a couple months to make sure that the injury hasn't changed his game. The mavs have almost NO asts coming from the PG spot..and I thought Devin Harris was a true PG, what gives? Jason terry seems to be more of a true PG. I was hoping that Devin Harris would put up TJ Ford type numbers but that hasn't happened.

by the way, what % is marquis daniels' ankle at?? Every now and then, i hear that he isn't 100% and it's scary to see how good he is.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

[quote]
Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

What grounds should he start? He's injured and hasn't done squat to warrant starting. I really thought he could play point before the season started but what has he done to prove he can run the point? One decent 13 points 11 assist game. Sorry, he is more of a 2 guard.

What grounds? How about the grounds that Jason's been our second most effective backcourt player this season behind Finley? How about the grounds that he's put up 1.2 points per scoring attempt (includes free throws) as compared to .93 points per scoring attempt by Devin? How about the fact that he's attempted to score about 42 times less than Devin in only 26 fewer minutes (funny that you should criticize Terry for being a SG)? How about the grounds that he's averaging more assists and fewer TO's than Devin? How about the fact that the Mavs are +7.2 points per 48 minutes with JT at the point and -.5 per 48 with Devin at the point? How about the fact that the Mavs have outscored opponents by 21 points per 48 minutes when Terry and Dirk have shared the floor as compared to 8.6 points when Devin and Dirk have shared the floor? Don't get me wrong. I'm still excited about having Devin; he's just not justifying his starting spot or his minutes with his play, and if you can't see that Terry's done considerably more good for the team in his time on the floor then you're blind. If Devin can't start playing smarter and more effectively by the time Jason recovers from his injury I'll be more than just a little irritated if a change in the starting lineup isn't made.[/q

I'm blind? You're all about these dumb mini-stats that nobody ever pays attention to. I was at the game, as I always am, and do see with my own eyes. Terry sucked it up big time today. Harris at least hit two big three pointers even though he had a sour game too. Terry finally hit like 2 shots nearing the end of the game, but that was it. I dunno if his ankle is bothering him or what, but I know damn well that I watch every game very closely, especially when I go to the home games. All of your mini stats don't make a difference if Terry isn't making the big plays down the stretch. I don't think Terry or Harris has done anything amazing, but right now we should definitely stick with starting Harris. I watch the game. Every game. If I miss one, I'll be sure to let you know, so you can spout ridiculous stats like those.

[grndmstr_c]

You're all about these dumb mini-stats that nobody ever pays attention to.

Wow. What an incredibly mature and articulate counterargument you've got working there.[img]i/expressions/anim_roller.gif[/img]

[grndmstr_c]

Some more ridiculous stats for you, DHWS: The Mavs were outscored by 9 points when Devin manned the point today, and outscored the Blazers by 18 points when JT ran the point.

[dude1394]

The nice thing about devin is that he's unconscious when it comes to taking his shot. He plays like a rookie and it really shows. I'm not sure about the starting thing, but I'm almost always more interested in who ends games rather than starts. He's quite a pest defensively and gets them off to a good start. Terry will probably finish.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
Some more ridiculous stats for you, DHWS: The Mavs were outscored by 9 points when Devin manned the point today, and outscored the Blazers by 18 points when JT ran the point.

Oh yeah, and I'm sure none of that was attributed to any of our other players. What counter argument do you want? You can make a positive stat case for almost any player in the league the way you do it. "Gee well when Joe Przbilla played 5 minutes, the Blazers were .3489 on field goal defense blah blah blah" Terry plays tough D, and so does Harris. Right now, they are both 2 guards just brining the ball up the court. I don't care if we outscored the Blazers 18 when Terry can the point, I watched and the ball wasn't in his hands after he got it up the court. It was Howard, Daniels and Dirk making the plays. Harris had a bad game, I'm not gonna lie. But so did Terry. Just look at the real stats. 1-4 field goals? 2 assists? Wow. He definitely should start.

[FilthyFinMavs]

I too think this team misses Finley but you also have to remember this team had no training camp together. Give this team until the All Star Break and you should see them play more like a team. Right now you are asking injured players to step up who aren't healthy. I expected this team to struggle at the beginning of the season so i'm not too surprised by the play but they came out the gate so strong I think due to the competition they looked better than they really were. Give them to the All Star Break to gel. It might take even more than that.

[grndmstr_c]

Oh yeah, and I'm sure none of that was attributed to any of our other players. What counter argument do you want? You can make a positive stat case for almost any player in the league the way you do it. "Gee well when Joe Przbilla played 5 minutes, the Blazers were .3489 on field goal defense blah blah blah" Terry plays tough D, and so does Harris. Right now, they are both 2 guards just brining the ball up the court. I don't care if we outscored the Blazers 18 when Terry can the point, I watched and the ball wasn't in his hands after he got it up the court. It was Howard, Daniels and Dirk making the plays. Harris had a bad game, I'm not gonna lie. But so did Terry. Just look at the real stats. 1-4 field goals? 2 assists? Wow. He definitely should start.

You seem to have decided that I'm running around trying to tear down your boy by manufacturing statistical arguments that I would never think of using with other players, and I don't know what else to tell you in that respect other than that: 1) you obviously are misunderstanding my intentions and underestimating my integrity, 2) you need to chill out and accept a little bit of the criticism Devin's been earning with his rookie play, and 3) you need to show a little more faith in your boy by acknowledging a little bit of the praise his primary competition for PT (that being Terry) has been earning with his veteran play. If you want to argue that you think Devin's going to pick it up sooner rather than later, or that making a change in the starting lineup would be a bad move for psychological reasons or the like, be my guest, but you're not even worth having this discussion with if all you can think to do is dismiss a very fair and transparent set of statistics that I've brought to the table by calling the statistics names (just because they're inanimate mathematical constructions doesn't mean they don't have feelings) and offering nothing substantive in their place. Devin deserves a better fan. Maybe when he starts playing better I'll take over for you.

Now, as for the bit about being able to make a positive stat case for any player in the league, you're just putting your own bias on display there. First, outside of the numbers I provided for your edification from this game, the stats I've been presenting have been based on the season as a whole, which constitutes a somewhat larger sample size than 5 minutes, thank you very much. Second, .3489 on field goal defense (ah, the old make-it-seem-ridiculous-by-stretching-it-out-to-four-decimal-places trick; very original) doesn't amount to a hill of beans unless the player in question can get the offense to produce, and that's where Devin has struggled. His defensive impact looks a bit better than JT's (allowing 100.8 points per 100 posessions as compared to 103.4), but on offense the Mavs are scoring only 100.3 points per 100 posessions with Devin on the floor, but are putting up 110.1 with Terry. Third, I defy you to go and look up Antoine Walker's stats on 82games and make any kind of a positive case for him.

[dude1394]

The rookie is playing like one right now. If he keeps it up he'll be on the bench... I still think that nellie is starting him, seeing how screwed up he is that day and bringing terry in to finish games. Harris has been very good and very rookish. No shame in being a rookie in a complicated offense in one of the hardest positions to play. Either take the comments in the way they are offered or wear tougher clothing to the board.

[The Miles]

I was just hoping we would be .500 going into January so I am happy. Just keep developing Dirk, Devin, and Josh and everything will fall into place.

[G-Man]

3 Conclusions from the losing streak

1. When Dirk's ankle collapses in a game, so does the team morale. That explains the Denver loss.

2. With Dirk and Fin out, we can now run with and defend against and play good enough to beat Kevin Garnett. The only Mav in that game who was in Dallas 2 years ago was Bradley. Our rookie and 2 guys 2 months into their second season carried us to an almost win. Gotta be jazzed about that.

3. We have to have all our pieces and be at the top of our game to win in San Antonio. So does everybody else who plays in SA.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c

You seem to have decided that I'm running around trying to tear down your boy by manufacturing statistical arguments that I would never think of using with other players, and I don't know what else to tell you in that respect other than that: 1) you obviously are misunderstanding my intentions and underestimating my integrity, 2) you need to chill out and accept a little bit of the criticism Devin's been earning with his rookie play, and 3) you need to show a little more faith in your boy by acknowledging a little bit of the praise his primary competition for PT (that being Terry) has been earning with his veteran play. If you want to argue that you think Devin's going to pick it up sooner rather than later, or that making a change in the starting lineup would be a bad move for psychological reasons or the like, be my guest, but you're not even worth having this discussion with if all you can think to do is dismiss a very fair and transparent set of statistics that I've brought to the table by calling the statistics names (just because they're inanimate mathematical constructions doesn't mean they don't have feelings) and offering nothing substantive in their place. Devin deserves a better fan. Maybe when he starts playing better I'll take over for you.

Now, as for the bit about being able to make a positive stat case for any player in the league, you're just putting your own bias on display there. First, outside of the numbers I provided for your edification from this game, the stats I've been presenting have been based on the season as a whole, which constitutes a somewhat larger sample size than 5 minutes, thank you very much. Second, .3489 on field goal defense (ah, the old make-it-seem-ridiculous-by-stretching-it-out-to-four-decimal-places trick; very original) doesn't amount to a hill of beans unless the player in question can get the offense to produce, and that's where Devin has struggled. His defensive impact looks a bit better than JT's (allowing 100.8 points per 100 posessions as compared to 103.4), but on offense the Mavs are scoring only 100.3 points per 100 posessions with Devin on the floor, but are putting up 110.1 with Terry. Third, I defy you to go and look up Antoine Walker's stats on 82games and make any kind of a positive case for him.

Well, isn't Walker the exception to every rule? LOL. I know you aren't bashing Harris, but if I thought Terry was producing big time off the bench, you'd have a case. He played better vs. Memphis, and if he has another solid game over Harris, then yeah, start him. Niether is getting the point position right now. Honestly, I think we can safely agree that Nelson is the problem. I love signing two centers who won't get the light of day in Benga and Pavel. Even if Terry was great, maybe Nellie just doesn't like him.

[mavsfanforever]

damn, don't quote the whole post. It becomes difficult for us to read your point.