yahyes: Lebron to DALLAS

[RoddyB#3]

Why not give up Roddy? The Mavs are going to have to give up more. You can't try and make Golden State give up all of the value, when all you give up is an expiring in Butler and two first round draft picks (basically) for LeBron. I see you're name is RoddyB, so maybe that's why you wouldn't want to give him up, but you would have to give him up at least.

Why give up Roddy if you don't have to? Anthony Randolph gives them a young prospect to work with. You absolutely can make GS give up most of the talent if you can help them get out of the bind their in. As I mentioned before, they already tried to combine Randolph with Maggette to get out of his contract. Teams were not willing to take on Corey's deal and send GS back expiring contracts. Now they are in the off season, and although expiring contracts would still be good. How about a contract that could get them out of one of those bad deals immediately. Damp is perfect for this situation.

You have to understand how bad they want out of one of those contracts. They were willing to deal one of their best young prospects away just to get out of Corey's deal! Now seeing as no one is running up to grab Maggette. You better believe they are willing to deal Biedrins who has fallen out of favor with them this year. Who cares what the Mavs personally are sending? It's all about what is Cleveland getting back! They are fortunate to be getting anything back seeing as LeBron could just walk. This deal is certainly now low balling them.

No one has a better offer? Hell, the Houston offer in this thread is a better deal than that one. Your deal really favors the Mavs more. You're going to have to give up at least one young prospect and not just crap, an expiring, and two picks.

The Houston offer would be a good one, but there is one problem and his name is LeBron! Why would he go to Houston and play with Brooks and Ming? If he wants some kind of combo like that he would be better suited going to Chicago with Rose and Noah. Now this is according to your list:
One Young Prospect
Anthony Randolph (You are going to have a hard time selling to me that Cleveland would take Roddy over Randolph. Teams still don't have a good feel for Roddy thanks to Carlisle. They know Randolph and that he could possibly be a star in this league if groomed right.
Crap
Andris Biedrins (You may have a point! lol However he would probably be the starting center for them immediately if they didn't decide to start Varejao over him.)
An Expiring
Caron Butler (Better than any one they would have left with LeBron gone to start at SF. The fact that he is expiring is good for them as they have plenty of 1st round picks to try and find a future one. Unless they suddenly fill that Randolph is better suited at SF.
Extra
2 first round picks
Cash
Rights to Calathes
I just can't see how that is not a good deal for Cleveland? They fill starting holes immediately, they get a future stud, 2 first rounders that could lead to future studs, a couple million of Cubans money in their pocket, and a project worth looking at in Calathes. Besides, Cleveland is not in complete control here any way. If Dallas was a team LeBron was willing to go to. Cleveland would be crazy to turn that down when Legron could just walk to a division rival like Chicago and they get NOTHING!

Yeah, I'm looking at Golden State's end, and not sure why they would do it to. They are getting crap back (especially with Damp), for giving up their young players Biedrins and Randolph. Hickson is the only bright spot, and even then, he didn't really play much during the season and it could be a rik pick up by Golden State (not sure what kind of player Hickson will be).

This one here just confirmed to me that you are not aware of GS situation. They wouldn't keep Damp as the plan is to waive him and save a lot of money getting out of Biedrins. If they have to send Randolph to help them save money. Why not send Hickson their way to make sure they don't feel like they gave away Randolph? Seeing as Cleveland is getting Randolph and already has Jamison and Varejao. It kinda makes Hickson expendable and I just can't see the Cavs making a fuss about sending him.

[RoddyB#3]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

Because LeBron will decide where he wants to go, not Cleveland.

This is what people have to remember when it comes to a S&T for LeBron. Cleveland is going to have to pick from teams of LeBron's choices in a case where they know he is going to leave. The Cavs will be the dumbest team in the league if they don't try to at least convince LeBron to let them work a deal out with one of the teams he would like to go to. Of course this works better for LeBron as it puts 30mil more in his pocket and an extra guaranteed year. Now the real problem is how greedy can Cleveland be when dealing with these teams?

I believe LeBron 100% when he says his team is going to execute a game plan. I have no idea what it is, but I can take a pretty good guess. I believe he will go to Cleveland and ask them to find a deal with a team from his choices for a S&T. LeBron goes to a team he feels good about with a max deal, and leaves with somewhat of a clear conscience knowing he helped Cleveland get something in return.

Back to Cleveland being greedy. They can't afford to take too much from one of these teams. If you make LeBron not feel as good about going there because you took a nice chunk of the talent away in the deal. It's very possible LeBron turns it down and you have to start all over. Now there are those that say Cleveland will call LeBron's bluff and say we aren't helping you go somewhere else. LOL This is where Lebron's gameplan comes back into play. He just takes himself to one of these teams that can straight up afford him, like Chicago a division rival. Cleveland just lost one of the best players ever in their history and couldn't even try and work something out so that they at least benefit in some way! WOW!

Fish over at DB.com is absolutely right when he says if LeBron leaves it will be in a S&T. It is the only way that both parties can come out of this with some benefit. LeBron of course with a new team and max money. Cleveland with whatever bag of goodies they were able to pull off. Most likely consisting of talent, draft picks, money, and perhaps rights to players over seas. I'm not trying to get people's hopes up, but Dallas has a better shot then a lot of people think. This is the case for all the big free agents. Teams may have set themselves up with cap space to sign these max players. Unfortunately for them, a S&T situation benefits that player more. Unless the player just really wants to go to that team with the max that can be offered straight up signing with them.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by RoddyB#3

Why give up Roddy if you don't have to? Anthony Randolph gives them a young prospect to work with. You absolutely can make GS give up most of the talent if you can help them get out of the bind their in. As I mentioned before, they already tried to combine Randolph with Maggette to get out of his contract. Teams were not willing to take on Corey's deal and send GS back expiring contracts. Now they are in the off season, and although expiring contracts would still be good. How about a contract that could get them out of one of those bad deals immediately. Damp is perfect for this situation.

Because the Cavs are going to want more than one young prospect. At least one from the Mavs, too. Especially if you have them taking back a long and big contract like Biedrins.

You have to understand how bad they want out of one of those contracts. They were willing to deal one of their best young prospects away just to get out of Corey's deal! Now seeing as no one is running up to grab Maggette. You better believe they are willing to deal Biedrins who has fallen out of favor with them this year. Who cares what the Mavs personally are sending? It's all about what is Cleveland getting back! They are fortunate to be getting anything back seeing as LeBron could just walk. This deal is certainly now low balling them.

And with your deal, I don't see Cleveland getting all they want back. Another young prospect like Roddy (with everything else included), and then you have an alright deal.

The Houston offer would be a good one, but there is one problem and his name is LeBron! Why would he go to Houston and play with Brooks and Ming? If he wants some kind of combo like that he would be better suited going to Chicago with Rose and Noah. Now this is according to your list:

Brooks and Yao >> Rose and Noah. Hell, the Rockets squad currently >> the Bulls squad currently. The Rockets squad even won more games (and that's playing in the toughest division of the toughest conference in the NBA). Why wouldn't LeBron like coming here?

Brooks/LeBron/Ariza or Battier/Scola/Yao with Budinger, Hill, Lowry, Hayes, and the lottery pick (#14 or Top 3 pick). That team can contend better than the Bulls' team. And you can't replace heart + hustle. As cliche as that sounds, the Rockets win many games off of that alone it seems. You have to look no further than the Lakers series last year or this season alone to realize that. You add a great talent like LeBron to that AND a potential top three lottery pick to that??

I just can't see how that is not a good deal for Cleveland? They fill starting holes immediately, they get a future stud, 2 first rounders that could lead to future studs, a couple million of Cubans money in their pocket, and a project worth looking at in Calathes. Besides, Cleveland is not in complete control here any way. If Dallas was a team LeBron was willing to go to. Cleveland would be crazy to turn that down when Legron could just walk to a division rival like Chicago and they get NOTHING!

It's an alright deal for Cleveland, but Houston can offer a better one in just a straight up, sign and trade: Kevin Martin (around the same contract as Biedrins), Battier or Ariza (smaller contract than Biedrins), 2 NY First Round picks, rights to Sergio Llull (better than Calathes, in my opinion, and plays a lot like Manu). With the picks, the Rockets can completely destroy the offer the Mavs can give, as far as the picks go. You can give Cleveland two Mavs first rounderS? Both will most likely be at the tail end of the first round? The Rockets can give the Cavs two NY Knicks picks. One is Top 1 protected, and the other is Top 3 protected.

Cavs' management: "So, you're telling me that we can take two NY first round picks, and effectively screw them (Knicks) over for all of those years of LeBron talk to NY? AND keep LeBron away from a conference rival? Okay!" Hell, with the Rockets' lottery pick this year, they could get a top three pick this year, and trade that, Kevin Martin, and Battier to the Cavs for LeBron. You don't think the Cavs would like a chance at getting Evan Turner (from Ohio State)? Then, the Rockets would still have enough assets to try and get Bosh.

I really don't think there is any team in the NBA that can offer as much as the Rockets, without giving up half of their team.

This one here just confirmed to me that you are not aware of GS situation. They wouldn't keep Damp as the plan is to waive him and save a lot of money getting out of Biedrins. If they have to send Randolph to help them save money. Why not send Hickson their way to make sure they don't feel like they gave away Randolph? Seeing as Cleveland is getting Randolph and already has Jamison and Varejao. It kinda makes Hickson expendable and I just can't see the Cavs making a fuss about sending him.

I just don't see the point of GS trading away Randolph and getting back Hickson. I have heard of Randolph having some problems in GS though.

And don't forget who the GM of the Houston Rockets is.........

[sefant77]

You mean the guy that up several Rockets years because he didnt realize that McGrady was going major downhill and didnt accept a nice package from the pistons?

This homerism about Morey is so damn blind, he screwed up allready.

And James just wont rely his championship pressure on yaos broken glass body and thats it. He will never agree to a Houston S&T.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by sefant77

You mean the guy that up several Rockets years because he didnt realize that McGrady was going major downhill and didnt accept a nice package from the pistons?

This homerism about Morey is so damn blind, he screwed up allready.

And James just wont rely his championship pressure on yaos broken glass body and thats it. He will never agree to a Houston S&T.

Are you SERIOUS?! Everyone was fooled by McGrady. We all thought he could come back at the same level. That's why we got Ron Artest that summer instead. If all three had stayed healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that the Rockets would have won the championship that year. You add in McGrady's scoring/playmaking ability to that Lakers series, and we beat them.

But even then, the Rockets are one of the best teams positioned for the future in the NBA. Definitely better than any other team in the division. Look at the McGrady trade this year. We send out him and Landry, but get back Martin, Jeffries (expiring contract this coming season), Jordan Hill (lottery pick and potential stud), and two NY Knicks draft picks (with GREAT lottery protection...since they are barely protected). This trade has positioned us for the future so well. The Detroit trade would just be a "win now" type of trade. With what Morey has done, we can still "win now" but can also win in the future.

And have you not seen the new video of Yao Ming? He looks to have lost a lot of weight and is doing some great exercises/core training: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJ2WilQ8nCg

Do tell how Morey screwed up, because I'm not seeing it.

[sefant77]

Morey is a really good GM but like i told way overrated by all that "God" "greatest" blabla.

If all three had stayed healthy, there is no doubt in my mind that the Rockets would have won the championship that year. You add in McGrady's scoring/playmaking ability to that Lakers series, and we beat them.

Thats the classic Rockets talk. Unfortunately you should always rate a player about talent AND health. Talent is useless when it is sitting on the bench. The Martin trade was a no brainer, but again the Rockets add the biggest injury prone of the young guard talents in the league.

Yaos workout video? So what? He hit the 30 this year. His injury problem wont get better. He is what he is, 300+ in a weak body frame. To think otherwise is just blind.

And one of the best positioned teams for the future? Are you kidding me? With 30 year old Yao and Kevin Martin?? Hill didnt prove shit yet and before i celebrate the Knicks picks i would wait the summer.

I would take the Memphis and Dallas roster right now over the Rockets. Hell, even the Kings and Clippers.

Rockets fans should wake up about Yao, finally. He is great, awesome, but you just cant rely on him playing the amount of games in one season that you need to win a ring.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Morey is a really good GM but like i told way overrated by all that "God" "greatest" blabla.

Name a better GM in the NBA than Morey. Morey pulls off all types of deals and gets players like Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry late in the draft.

Thats the classic Rockets talk. Unfortunately you should always rate a player about talent AND health. Talent is useless when it is sitting on the bench. The Martin trade was a no brainer, but again the Rockets add the biggest injury prone of the young guard talents in the league.

And like I said, we all thought McGrady could come back healthy. Basically, McGrady was bullshitting that summer and didn't work out. He came to camp fat and out of shape. If he had actually worked hard during the summer after surgery, he could have played the season. And Martin's injuries were mostly freak injuries and not recurring.

Yaos workout video? So what? He hit the 30 this year. His injury problem wont get better. He is what he is, 300+ in a weak body frame. To think otherwise is just blind.

Yeah, Yao's workout video. It shows the progress he has made. He has lost a lot of weight, it seems. That means less pressure on his legs and feet. And what does hitting 30 have to do with it? Yao didn't even play last season, so he basically had a full season of rest/training. We have a few months until he's 30 anyway.

And one of the best positioned teams for the future? Are you kidding me? With 30 year old Yao and Kevin Martin?? Hill didnt prove shit yet and before i celebrate the Knicks picks i would wait the summer.

No, with Brooks, Ariza (had his first triple double the last game of the season, after getting close all season long), Lowry, Budinger, Hill, and hell even Taylor. Hill has shown flashes. Just like Roddy has shown flashed for the Mavericks. Hill just needs to work on his jumper. He has great work ethic, and with the coaching staff the Rockets have, there is no doubt in my mind he'll get even better.

Edit: Oh, and about the NY picks, what do you mean we have to wait until summer? If the Rockets trade the NY picks for a Bosh or LeBron or Wade, that only makes the picks even MORE valuable (especially if it is used on Bosh or LeBron). Why? Because you are keeping the Knicks from players that they coveted, and are basically screwing them over. Besides, the Knicks are going to need more the one superstar to get that team out of the crapper. I'm confident to say, the Knicks will be a lottery team for the next two to three years.

I would take the Memphis and Dallas roster right now over the Rockets. Hell, even the Kings and Clippers.

You would take Memphis over Houston? This may have been a "popular" thing to do when Memphis was actually playing well, but who ended up with the better record? The Rockets are better than Memphis. There is no doubt about that. As for the Mavs, they are old and the window is almost shut. What young prospects/players do the Mavs have besides Roddy? Yeah. You want to talk about Yao being 30, the entire starting lineup of the Mavs is at least 30, if not much older. If LeBron was on the Mavs, he would be the second youngest player on the team. If LeBron was on the Rockets, he would be in the middle of the pack and right at the team average pretty much (26).

And you pick the Kings and Clippers over the Rockets? Okay....

Rockets fans should wake up about Yao, finally. He is great, awesome, but you just cant rely on him playing the amount of games in one season that you need to win a ring.

That's why Yao will most likely be limited to about 25 minutes a game this year. He'll might even take a few short road trips off. It's all about keeping him healthy for the playoffs.

[sefant77]

Well, its offtopic anyway.

My main point is that James wont accept a S&T to Houston, its for him a way too high gamble with Yao when there are better options/destinations anyway....

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Well, its offtopic anyway.

My main point is that James wont accept a S&T to Houston, its for him a way too high gamble with Yao when there are better options/destinations anyway....

In your opinion.

We'll see. The offseason isn't too far away.

[John F.]

I wish, but, never happen.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by RoddyB#3

I believe he will go to Cleveland and ask them to find a deal with a team from his choices for a S&T.

I disagree with you. He won't have choices, he'll have one choice. For example, he might say: "I want to go to Dallas - work out a S&T with them". And if he chooses a team with cap space, the Cavs have even less leverage because LeBron can simply sign with them outright.

All in all, if you are expecting a competition over who can offer the Cavs the best deal - you are sorely mistaken. LeBron doesn't care about the Cavs getting the best offer possible, he wants a max deal with the one team of his choosing. Basically, the biggest hurdle is not offering the Cavs the best deal possible, but getting LeBron to want to come to Dallas.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

I disagree with you. He won't have choices, he'll have one choice. For example, he might say: "I want to go to Dallas - work out a S&T with them". And if he chooses a team with cap space, the Cavs have even less leverage because LeBron can simply sign with them outright.

All in all, if you are expecting a competition over who can offer the Cavs the best deal - you are sorely mistaken. LeBron doesn't care about the Cavs getting the best offer possible, he wants a max deal with the one team of his choosing. Basically, the biggest hurdle is not offering the Cavs the best deal possible, but getting LeBron to want to come to Dallas.

But, he can get more money by doing a sign and trade, instead of just signing with a team. The Cavs aren't going to send LeBron where he doesn't want to go though. He'll pick the team.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by sefant77

I would take the Memphis and Dallas roster right now over the Rockets. Hell, even the Kings and Clippers.

Memphis has a better roster than Houston? For real? Houston swept Memphis 4-0. Without Yao. Beat them by double digits each time.

And the Kings & Clippers? They are NOT EVEN CLOSE....

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

Memphis has a better roster than Houston? For real? Houston swept Memphis 4-0. Without Yao. Beat them by double digits each time.

And the Kings & Clippers? They are NOT EVEN CLOSE....

But even then, the Rockets are one of the best teams positioned for the future in the NBA.

Yes, i think that.

If i have to choose Marc Gasol or Yao for my team, i take Gasol.

[CrazyBoy]

stefan is right... the memphis roster is more valuable in the future(OJ mayo, Gasol, rudy gay - all future superstars, not just prospects)

btw. guerilla - you realy want to trade all those shiny first round picks for lebron? do you know that draftpicks work as $0 tradevalue? (even more difficult in a 125% scenario lebron is worth 16,5 million next year - how to match that?)
you wont get anything with it unless the overall package is in a touch and go situation - so houston cant string such a deal

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by CrazyBoy

stefan is right... the memphis roster is more valuable in the future(OJ mayo, Gasol, rudy gay - all future superstars, not just prospects)

Rudy Gay is a restricted-FA? I doubt Memphis matches an offer he gets. Also, Memphis is known for trading away perfectly good players for no reason. Houston killed Memphis this year...without Yao. So, (to stefan), I don't see how Yao being injury prone has much do to with it, when a Yao-less Rockets blows out Memphis anyway.

btw. guerilla - you realy want to trade all those shiny first round picks for lebron? do you know that draftpicks work as $0 tradevalue? (even more difficult in a 125% scenario lebron is worth 16,5 million next year - how to match that?)
you wont get anything with it unless the overall package is in a touch and go situation - so houston cant string such a deal

You should just go look at what I proposed for yourself. The salaries are all close. The draft picks are just extra.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Yes, i think that.

Fair enough. Even though I haven't figured out one good reason to agree with you. Not sure how the Yao-less Rockets absolutely crushing the Grizzles 4 times and having a better record = a superior Grizzles roster.

Also don't pretend the Rockets have an old roster - they don't. The vast majority of the players are around 25. The fact is that Houston will be a good team for some time.

Originally Posted by sefant77

If i have to choose Marc Gasol or Yao for my team, i take Gasol.

I might agree with you if Marc Gasol was better than Yao at anything. Yao is a better offensive player, a better defensive player, a better rebounder, and a better shot blocker. I would take Yao in a heartbeat.

[sefant77]

Of course Yao is the better player but like i wrote all the time, its his injury history that kill his value and the value for the rockets as contender.

Thats why i pick Gasol over Ming.

And i dont get why i should think that it get better or stop after Yao hits age 30. And where is the good backup center so Ming can play 25min and no b2b and the Rockets still get a top4 seed for the playoffs? Andersen? Hayes?

[bobatundi]

Originally Posted by GuerillaBlack

Name a better GM in the NBA than Morey. Morey pulls off all types of deals and gets players like Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry late in the draft.

How about every GM with a championship?

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by sefant77

And i dont get why i should think that it get better or stop after Yao hits age 30. And where is the good backup center so Ming can play 25min and no b2b and the Rockets still get a top4 seed for the playoffs? Andersen? Hayes?

The offseason hasn't started yet. The Rockets can get a backup center then. Hill can play center a little though. Needs to work on some better post moves and he'll be good.

Originally Posted by bobatundi

How about every GM with a championship?

No.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Of course Yao is the better player but like i wrote all the time, its his injury history that kill his value and the value for the rockets as contender.

Thats why i pick Gasol over Ming.

That is where we disagree. I'd still take Yao even with his injury history. He is simply that good.

Yao's whole problem was that he was playing too much basketball. He would also play for China in the summer. Being 7'6 and 300 lbs and playing 82 games + playoffs is bad enough.

Yao took an entire year off last year. I expect him - with his reduced minutes - to be ready come playoff time.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

That is where we disagree. I'd still take Yao even with his injury history. He is simply that good.

Yao's whole problem was that he was playing too much basketball. He would also play for China in the summer. Being 7'6 and 300 lbs and playing 82 games + playoffs is bad enough.

Yao took an entire year off last year. I expect him - with his reduced minutes - to be ready come playoff time.

That's something people forget. Yao played in the Olympics, too. Some thought he was coming back too soon from his last foot injury to play in the Olympics. Now, he will have had a year and a half off from any basketball, by the time the 2010 season starts.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Are you guys saying Yao might be healthy at some point in the future, at which time the Rockets will be good again? Just like you said in 2005?

[Kidd Karma]

Either way, it comes down to where Lebron wants to go. Houston may have sweeter trade pack, but Lebron won't sign the contract unless he wants to go to Houston.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

Are you guys saying Yao might be healthy at some point in the future, at which time the Rockets will be good again? Just like you said in 2005?

The difference being that Yao did take a whole year off. Will he be rusty? I think so. But I think he will regain his touch as the season goes on.

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

Either way, it comes down to where Lebron wants to go. Houston may have sweeter trade pack, but Lebron won't sign the contract unless he wants to go to Houston.

This was the point I was originally making. It doesn't matter who can make the better deal to Cleveland, LeBron is going to choose where he wants to go.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

The difference being that Yao did take a whole year off. Will he be rusty? I think so. But I think he will regain his touch as the season goes on.

Uh huh. Until he gets hurt two months into the season again. Then you can look forward to him being healthy again. And it just goes round and round like that.

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

Uh huh. Until he gets hurt two months into the season again. Then you can look forward to him being healthy again. And it just goes round and round like that.

We'll see about that...

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

The difference being that Yao did take a whole year off. Will he be rusty? I think so. But I think he will regain his touch as the season goes on.



This was the point I was originally making. It doesn't matter who can make the better deal to Cleveland, LeBron is going to choose where he wants to go.

He would be benefitting Cleveland if he allowed them to hammer out a sign and trade, while picking up an extra what 20 million or he can say screw Cleveland and walk to Chicago, NJ or NY on a 5 year deal. It's really all in his hands. The dominoes have all been set up, he has the first move and everything will fall into place.

[GuerillaBlack]

Originally Posted by Kidd Karma

He would be benefitting Cleveland if he allowed them to hammer out a sign and trade, while picking up an extra what 20 million or he can say screw Cleveland and walk to Chicago, NJ or NY on a 5 year deal. It's really all in his hands. The dominoes have all been set up, he has the first move and everything will fall into place.

He could benefit Cleveland a bit and not look like a total ass, as well as earn some extra millions in his pocket by doing a sign and trade. He can also sign a team with enough cap room. He has different choices in each category, so we'll see.

[92bDad]

http://www.lebrontothemavs.com/

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Mavericks Rockets Fan

The difference being that Yao did take a whole year off. Will he be rusty? I think so. But I think he will regain his touch as the season goes on.

Sure and Mavs wont need James for the title next year because finally Terry will get his head out his ass during the playoffs

Yes, maybe it happen, probably not, so dont count on it. Same with Yaos health or James willing to gamble with Yao.

Its pretty easy.

After all that years Houston should really be the last team where the fans still talking "On the paper we are great...healthy we win the ring blabla...". It failed every single year....

[greensborohill]

http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=3040

Where are the Mavs as they start the summer? Amid the sound of the season’s wedding bells, our analysis of the Mavs can be summarized by a nuptials tradition: it’s all about something old, something new, something borrowed, and something blue.

Or, if you prefer: We’ll label each of the following sections thusly: The DUST Chip; Double-Dipping, Dallas-LeBron; and Dirk.



THE DUST CHIP – SOMETHING OLD



Let’s start by taking a fresh look at Something Old: the long-awaited use of The DUST Chip this summer. How and why would it work? And what does it not do? A quick primer and review.



What is The DUST Chip? It’s our long-standing name for a potential use for Erick Dampier’s unusual contract. It’s different from the normal NBA contract in that its final year is sizable (over $13M) but not guaranteed. As a result, he can be waived at any time and his team won’t owe him another cent – meaning he can instantly be erased from a team’s payroll and salary cap, like dust blowing away.



Why makes The DUST Chip potentially a biggie? The primary factor is its flexibility. In the NBA, much of what happens centers around money issues, i.e., salary-cap and luxury-tax issues. Having a tool that will provide some team the ability to instantly erase more than $13M from their cap has the potential to do a lot of different things.



The most commonly mentioned use for DUST would be as a tool in a chase for a free agent. Here’s how it would work:



Let’s say Sammy Superstar decides he wants a new team because he feels his old team will never be able to surround him with enough talent to win a title. (Aren’t we seeing this drama being played out on multiple stages?) This summer, unlike most, there will be teams everywhere with enough cap room to offer a max contract, and his old team might face the likely prospect of losing Sammy Superstar in free agency while getting nothing back at all. And teams without cap room will also be trying to woo Sammy, hoping his old team will let him leave via a Sign-and-Trade (SNT) which would provide some sort of lesser-but-desirable compensation back to the old team.



But teams offering SNTs for max contract players often face a too-huge obstacle: NBA rules require that teams over the cap send the old team fairly equal salary. If matching salary includes too much talent leaving, Sammy won't want to come to a crippled team, but if the matching salary has lots of players with big salary but little talent, the old team is likely to refuse. And for some teams, with the attractive prizes available in the summer of 2010, their biggest preference might be open up cap room to sign a free agent from somewhere else. In that case, matching salary from a SNT would get in their way, so it would be better for them to simply let him walk.

And if Dallas wants Sammy, since they have no cap room their only avenue would be via a SNT.

However The DUST Chip simply erases those types of problems for Dallas. By using DUST for the salary match:

a) the Mavs can take back a salary up to $16.4475M (which is within $125,000 of a max contract for Lebron, Wade, or Bosh)

b) the Mavs would not have to gut their roster of talent in order to match the required salary, and

c) the old team would simply waive Dampier and end up with no salary added to their cap.

Of course that wouldn’t be the whole deal. Offering DUST alone leaves the old team with no salary – and with no value gained. But in its simplest form, the Mavs could package DUST with a first-round pick (or two) and perhaps some cash, and the old team is getting picks and cash and no added salary for a player it was going to lose anyhow.



How likely is it that any team would actually try to trade for Erick Dampier, with a $13M contract? This is the most confusing part of the situation, but the team receiving Dampier is not trading to keep Dampier. He is being included only because the trade rules require matching salary, and with a non-guaranteed salary, once he’s waived his salary will be completely erased from their cap (unless the season has already begun).



Wouldn’t a player avoid something this complicated in looking for a new team? Nope. DUST may seem complicated to the casual observer when used in this fashion, but it’s merely a SNT similar to any other. In fact, when a player is going to leave, the SNT method is preferable over a straight free agent signing in allowing an extra year and bigger raises, and because it holds a way for a player to potentially get more money in otherwise unlikely scenarios, every top-level player agent already knows about DUST in considering the angles for his client this summer.



Will the Mavs have any leverage with the old team, or with the free agent, because they have the DUST chip? Nope, unfortunately not. Nothing can force a player to come to Dallas if he doesn’t want to, and the old team doesn’t have to ever accept a SNT.



However the uniqueness of DUST could be the tie-breaker with two teams competing for the same player …or it could bring a desirable player to the Mavs’ door. Rest assured that every NBA GM knows about the flexibility offered by DUST. If Sammy Superstar is going to leave his old team anyhow, the fact that the Mavs can offer a no-salary SNT could entice the old team to try to get him to go to the Mavs where they know they can get something with no baggage (picks and/or cash) for nothing (i.e., no salary added) if the Mavs want him.



In fact, this could even be conceived as an afterthought deal. What if the old team sees Sammy Superstar ready to sign with another team where they’ll lose him for absolutely nothing? What if the team he was considering was a big rival in their conference, or even their long-time division nemesis? In such a situation, they could recruit Dallas. "Hey, we're about to lose Sammy for nothing. We don't want any of the SNT offers we're getting and we don’t want him on our rival. Send us That DUST Chip with something for our trouble, and we'll try to help get him to Dallas."



How else could DUST be used? If the Mavs can’t get a free agent they like using DUST, some other possibilities are:

a) to find a team looking to give away some talent to have more spending room in free agency

b) become a third team in a SNT where one of the teams needs to shed salary to make the deal work and pick up some valued talent for DUST, or

c) find a team looking to trade away some talent for DUST because their payroll/cap is too high.



What’s the most likely obstacle that could keep DUST from being used? Player salary vs. value, in regards to the players it makes available. In a free agent situation, DUST could be used to SNT for any player from as small as the MLE (if properly structured) to almost a $16.5M salary. Or in taking a player in trade from another team simply to reduce their cap, it could work for any player or set of players with a salary between (in round numbers) $10.3M and $16.5M. But the Mavs are not going to be interested in adding payroll just because they can, especially at those numbers.



But what about Player X? I don’t think DUST will work with his old team, so it’s not that valuable after all, right? Of course not every team with a star free agent will automatically want such a deal. Sammy's old team might demand more talent than the Mavs can (or want to) offer in exchange for any SNT, could always refuse all SNT options, and might even be able to persuade Sammy to stay.



But keep in mind that Sammy will be choosing his destination. (Let’s say that again: Sammy will go where he chooses to go, and DUST by itself is just a helpful tool that makes the Mavs a suitor alongside many others.) While not every free agent would make Dallas his choice, often it's not who can offer his old team the most, but rather who can find the best way to balance the old team's interests and also those of Sammy. The flexibility of The DUST Chip makes a difficult task much easier and could give Dallas a helpful advantage.



Most importantly, it’s not necessary for DUST to work on every star free agent in 2010. The Mavs only need for it to work with one player, one time, on one free agent that the Mavs really want.



DALLAS DOUBLE-DIPPING – SOMETHING NEW

Double-dipping is our Something New to consider.



Prior to the Mavs’ deadline trade that brought Caron Butler, fans discussions on DB.com Boards and elsewhere about DUST typically saw the Mavs combining all their goodies into “DUST + Roddy B + picks” to make an attractive SNT package for Sammy. After the trade, Butler – expected to be redundant after being supplanted by Sammy – was added to the mix and it became “DUST + Roddy B + picks + Butler.”



But something was lost in translation. Does that package make sense as a DUST deal? No.



As outlined above, the value of DUST is the way it could allow Sammy’s old team to end up with taking back virtually no salary at all. But once Butler is added, the deal becomes a $25M monster for each team. Sammy’s old team could end up taking almost $13M in salary from Dallas, or if the trade is structured a different way to try to max out savings for Sammy’s old team, the Mavs are potentially taking back in excess of $31M - about 60 percent of the cap - in one single trade. Yikes.



What’s gone unnoticed is this: the pairing of Butler and Roddy B by themselves actually can do what “The DUST Chip’’ does - it almost trade-matches Sammy's max salary. So if the Mavs are already on the edge of matching Sammy with just Butler and Roddy alone, why include DUST and match Sammy a second time? Adding DUST at that point makes it an almost wasted asset.



So let’s figure it this way - once Butler arrived, the dynamics of the Mavs’ thinking about DUST and the summer certainly had to change. The pieces now fit differently – and in a much more flexible way.



There is on the horizon the potential for more than one deal. Rather, we could be about to watch the Mavs have a try at double-dipping.



In that case, how would DUST be used? In one possibility, it provides a way to add flexibility into a singular Sign-and-Trade negotiation, where the Mavs will have the potential to offer several very different trade choices at once to the old team.



For instance:



*Do you, Team X, want talent? Here ya go, you get a two-time All-Star (Butler) with a very friendly expiring contract, a youngster with worlds of upside (Roddy B) on rookie scale, a small expiring contract, and two No. 1 picks.



*Oh wait, Team X, you prefer cap space immediately to spend in free agency and don't want players? Fine! Then here's Roddy and two No. 1’s, with Dampier's instantly vanishing contract providing all the filler and keeping your cap room intact.



*Ah, Team X, you want us to take back a bit of salary too? Let's combine a bit of DUST here, or a bigger expiring there, and decide what talent makes most sense, in a mix-‘n’-match manner.



Whereas before there was essentially one attractive SNT offer for the Mavs to make, now there are several different angles that can be negotiated. And what becomes of DUST if they take the more traditional first choice, Caron/Roddy/expiring/picks, instead of actually using Dampier's contract in such a deal? Or what becomes of Butler, if they take the cheaper second choice?



Wow, what Summer of 2010 day that would be! Because in that event, the Mavs would still have The DUST Chip, or an expiring former All-Star, to spend elsewhere as needed!



Yessir, you read that right. Here are some of the ensuing options they'd have with DUST:



* The Mavs might dip back into free agency and find another use for DUST.



* But it wouldn't necessarily have to be a max deal. If the contract is structured properly, it could be:

a) used for a max player

b) used for one signed at the MLE for max years in free agency, or

c) for anything in between.



* The Mavs could use it to erase a contract for someone who desperately wants more cap room. … Instantly.



* Or, if someone needs added spending room as free agency is unfolding, they can bribe the Mavs with picks to get DUST in trade for existing salary and talent.



Wait, there’s one more interesting possibility!



What if the Mavs use Butler and/or Roddy B to get what they want, and don't need DUST at all in the summer? Then they could "save" their DUST. How? By trading Dampier and a bit of cash (as a tip) to another team who has enough cap room to take him for a conditional future second-rounder. The other team would immediately get their cap room back after waiving Dampier. And for the Mavs, it would create a Trade Exception of $13+M which in essence would allow them to come back later -- for up to a year -- and use a tad smaller modified version of DUST when it may be needed, either all at once or in pieces.



Worth noting, we think: There will be readers who review our take on Double-Dipping and accuse us of excessive optimism. Please remember, we’re not handicapping the Mavs’ chances of pulling these deals off; we’re simply taking inventory on the available ammunition and reporting on how Dallas can try to fire off its bullets.

THE MAVS AND LeBRON JAMES – SOMETHING BORROWED

And speaking of perceived optimism …



Something Borrowed? How about “stealing’’ rather than “borrowing’’ …with the target being another star coming to Dallas to play alongside Dirk?



We’ll start with a mention of LeBron James because his earlier-than-expected ouster from the playoffs has changed everything with him. He’s no longer a semi-lock to return to the Cavs, as their future suddenly looks bereft of titles. And make no mistake, Lebron has to win numerous titles to claim the legacy he desires. Without them, he merely becomes the Wilt Chamberlain of his generation.



He's just 25. Yet in one sense, time is getting away from him and by the time he finishes the contract he signs this summer, he will have completed 12-to-13 NBA seasons. If he doesn’t pick a place where he ends up a winner, how will he be viewed at that point?



Also on every wish list is Dwyane Wade, who’s thought by some to be committed to a return to Miami yet claims his bigger priority is playing for a winner. If Amare Stoudemire returns to Phoenix, Carlos Boozer goes back to Utah, and Chris Bosh decides he has no desire to play in Wade’s huge shadow in Miami, what then for Wade?



Bosh is definitely in play as a SNT target with the Raptors said to be thinking that way, Joe Johnson is openly looking for the biggest payday he can get after a less-than-sterling playoff performance in Atlanta, and who knows what else.



The question to be asked is this: do the Mavs have a real shot at this type of player this summer, with DUST or by some other SNT package? Where does reality stop and fantasy begin in all of this? A few points to keep in mind as this unfolds.



First of all, since the Mavs don’t have any actual cap space, can they really be players in free agency this summer? While nothing can be guaranteed in advance, we certainly think so … as do the Mavs and many long-time NBA experts. The reason is that this summer is the first in NBA history that has many teams with cap room to offer a max salary, the game’s biggest stars as free agents, and desirable fan markets all in the mix. With that combination, stars will be able to pick almost any destination they want, either via max spending room by suitors or by the ability to leverage that into a SNT as needed. If the Mavs want to add talent, it will come down to their ability to sell the team, the city, their future, and other things to the player(s) they target.



And for most of the top free agents (LBJ, Wade, Bosh, JJ), the old team has one more motivation to work with the Mavs – they’ll prefer to get the player out of the Eastern Conference, so they won’t have to compete with them. The only way they can steer that destination is through the use of the SNT process.



Since Cleveland can offer LeBron about $125M while other teams can only offer him about $95M without a SNT, doesn’t that give the Cavs enough leverage to keep him? We don’t think so, for four very specific reasons.

1. As a general principle, a team won’t come out ahead with their star by using financial penalties to try to FORCE him to play there when he really doesn’t want to. That is a bad business practice.

2. While the $125M/$95M numbers make a great story, they aren’t the final difference. The $125M is a number that includes a sixth year, and when LeBron eventually gets that sixth year after a $95M deal, the total with the right deal will get him past $120M.

3. As a GM this deal may be the last time you deal with that player, but every GM will tell you that each deal has to be done with the next one in mind, because the agent involved may represent the next 10 players you want on your team. If (as he sees it) you were willing to cut off your own nose to take money out of the pocket of him and his client, he won’t forget it.

4. And finally and most importantly for LeBron in particular, he has to go to a team where he can win titles. If he’s not convinced that team will be Cleveland, all the hardball is for nothing.



If Dallas can successfully recruit LeBron or someone similar, and the old team is willing to do a SNT, what must it cost? Can the Mavs keep Roddy B? Or Butler? Can’t they make a low offer since the old team will be getting something they wouldn’t otherwise have? This is a trade where the only way for either side to lose is to fail to make the deal; the Mavs win at almost any cost by getting a superstar, and the old team wins at almost any price by getting something of value back instead of losing their star for nothing. There’s a massive amount of wiggle room.



There will be a few factors guiding any negotiations. Since DUST keeps the Mavs from forcing unwanted salary on the other team for the trade match, the accompanying value needed might tend to be less than if the other team had to take some useless payroll. But the Mavs’ offers can’t get so low that the old team would rather have absolutely nothing than what is being offered. And the old team can’t demand more than a consolation prize, with the player a free agent and having the ability to go elsewhere without any compensation coming back at all.



Since Dallas hasn’t won a title, how would they attract a player like LeBron who is intent on finding an ideal place to win? If we’re Mark Cuban, our pitch goes like this:

“Lebron, you need to go win titles that are seen as yours. You don’t want to do that in a place that already is at the top where you just jump on the bandwagon. Instead, come to Dallas ...it’s the perfect spot to land because we’ve been close, Dirk’s already here and has an unselfish game perfectly suited to match yours, and you can be the hero that gets us to the final rung. We have everything else already in place to win titles except a giant hole needing a shot-creating scorer from the wing. And the minute you sign with the Mavs, you and Dirk on the same team will make Dallas a two-superstar team with the ability to win titles.”



Is there anything else about the Mavs that might attract LeBron? Or others? Cuban and the Mavs have a league-wide reputation of being a great organization for players. Excellent facilities, lots of other little perks, they add up and make a difference. Players notice.



But there’s one wild card that might prove an even bigger magnet to the big egos atop the NBA star list. How would they view the opportunity to be the center attraction at Cowboys Stadium several times a year, in an extravaganza like the All-Star Game? It would take the right player to make it a big enough attraction – but if you see yourself as the game’s biggest star, do you let anyone else take that stage away from you if it’s on the table?



Fish has pointed this out before, and I second the notion: Yes, LeBron is a Yankees fan. So in New York, they talk of enlisting Derek Jeter and the like to recruit him. But LeBron is also a Cowboys fan. There is nothing like Cowboys Stadium. There is nobody who sells like Jerry Jones. Yes, LeBron has a chance to “be a Jeter’’ in New York. But he has a chance to “be a Staubach’’ in Dallas.



We don’t know what will push LeBron over which edge (in fact, we think those pretending to know at this early stage are frauds). But we know the Mavs have the ammunition and the recruiting tools to be in the bidding.



DIRK AND DALLAS – SOMETHING BLUE

Now let’s put things into perspective. Despite the anticipation of what The DUST Chip might do, perhaps even double-dipping, and the intriguing idea that LeBron could change teams this summer (and, who knows, maybe could even end up in Dallas), those items aren’t the biggie for the Mavs right now.



Re-signing Dirk is really the one thing that matters. In fact, it’s the only thing.



Why? Because if Dirk leaves, we can forget the idea of another superstar being enticed to come to Dallas in free agency to chase a title with him. And with no superstar and no title chase, would Mark Cuban ramp up the payroll and use The DUST Chip to add the best leftover player possible, knowing the result is likely to produce a team whose max potential might be 50 wins or fewer? No way.



But when the summer started, that was not a worry. The view from here said Dirk’s return was more or less a given, and he would sign an extension early in order to give the Mavs a better resume’ in chasing enticing free agents with The DUST Chip.



Unfortunately for us, the ink was barely dry on our article (darn that optimism!) when Cuban announced that Dirk might wait to see what would happen in free agency in order to figure out what kind of deal he wanted with the Mavs. We don’t know exactly what the conversations were behind that statement, but it broadly hinted at a disturbing development: rather than sign an extension before free agency, Dirk was going to opt out of his contract and make his decision later.



Obviously Cuban put the best possible spin on the news, with the angle that Dirk was merely in wait-n-see mode on how to sign with the Mavs. And then came news of ongoing negotiations and DallasBasketball.com’s one-on-one visit with GM Donnie Nelson, in which Nelson stated Dallas’ plan to give Nowitzki everything he “deserves.’’



Our original prediction of an extension getting done by early June still has plenty of time to get done. But, based on what Cuban himself told us, are we in for a long wait just to see if the good times are about to end with the departure of Dirk from a Dallas uniform?



And if Dirk’s return is a question mark on July 1, what does that do to the Mavs opportunities to attract appealing free agents this summer even if he eventually returns?



Donnie tells us: “People understand what our thinking is, and each team gains an understanding for what other teams are thinking,’’ he says. “Dirk has the freedom to do what he wishes here. But even if for some reason he does opt-out, that does not really reduce our chances of making any moves that we find to be opportunistic.’’



Still ... the fact that this issue is dangling at all? Ouch. Color me (Something) Blue.



But wait, you say. Even if Dirk leaves in free agency, can’t the Mavs get something back in a Sign-and-Trade? Perhaps so … but if Dirk leaves, he’ll be headed to a team ready to win, so there won’t be a superstar coming back. If lucky the Mavs might get a raw kid or two that might have some promise, a draft pick or two, and then there would have to be some veteran salary to make the salaries match and that ideally would only last a year. And that would be the best-case scenario.



But that’s only a worry for now. Something Blue is being set aside for another day, to examine further only if we sense it is truly happening. Until then, we say Dirk’s coming back, and it’s a summer of DUST, of Double-Dipping, and of Guess Who’s Coming to Dallas?

[Kidd Karma]

Love that snippet about agent-front office relationship and really, the front office is at the mercy of the players. Lebron says Dallas, please work out a deal. If things get ridiculously out of hand, Lebron's agent may not send another player to Cleveland, or better yet, any player drafted by Cleveland would demand out.

Why hasn't Chicago, signed a prime time FA, since the MJ era? Chicago management screwed MJ and Pippen after their last run. They both wanted to come back, but mangement was prideful and wanted to build a championship team because of the naysayers, no agent has steered their FA's over there since.

[magman]

Come on Lebron, no one wants to see more lakers championships. (They somehow sneaked through the playoffs. The teams they´ve had to fear were Denver, San Antonio and Dallas, instead they played those teams who never could beat them on their homecourt. They were so lucky. And now everyone is hailing Kobe. We´ll see what he brings when he actually gets defended by someone capable. He couldn´t do **** against Marion.)

The best way to get a championship yourself is Dallas, in short and long term.