Hollinger with the hate crime - Page 2 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Dirkadirkastan · 01-07-2009, 05:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghazi

Hollingers computer formulas and Power Rankings bounce around like a mf'er. One week its the Suns supposed to finish 9th, tehn the Spurs, now the Mavs. Also, I checked 2 days ago and he had Milwaukee ranked as #5 due to a 10 game stretch where their MoV is +8.

I saw that. Did Johnny write another article defending why the Bucks will make the conference finals or something?

ty · 01-07-2009, 05:21 PM

Hollinger probably confuses himself more than he confuses other people.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ty

Hollinger probably confuses himself more than he confuses other people.

Or he asked Josh about his dealer before writing his column

cinemablend · 01-07-2009, 07:24 PM

Mavs haven't had injuries... um so what was Josh Howard doing when he missed all of those games?

Oh yeah, making the team better.

Tokey41 · 01-07-2009, 07:52 PM

Who says anything will actually go wrong for us? Who says anything will go right for the other teams? Maybe the Jazz stay injured, the Rockets WILL stay injured, the Suns have to be concerned about Nash's back problems, and as Hollinger noted the Hornets are one injured CP3 away from throwing away the season.

I think the point he's making is we've been very fortunate compared to other Western playoff teams. He's not 'hating' on us, just stating that if we run into our own bad luck we might fall short of the eighth seed. It's not like he's saying we're definitely missing the playoffs... but he is kind of saying at full strength we're probably the weakest of the bunch.

left texas · 01-07-2009, 09:06 PM

I just watch our play some nights and wonder where the Mavs went. Other nights, I see a legit playoff team. I would just like to see some consistent play from more than three guys.

ghazi · 01-08-2009, 01:36 AM

I see a legit playoff team some nights... a 9th place team other nights... I just wish I could see a contender team just once.

Based on my personal "eyeball" test I feel we are better than Phoenix and Portland. The other teams are so close to us that its hard to tell, and I'd pick the winner of a 7 game series with any of them based on who had homecourt.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 03:15 AM

1. Hollinger isn't a Mav's hater. He was adamant about Dirk being MVP in '05-'06, and last year his system had the Mavs as the sixth best team.

2. He IS strictly a numbers guy. He assesses the game based on what his formulas crunch out. He very rarely deviates from what the numbers say.

3. Because he relies on formulas and retroactively warrants what the formula will crunch out, his analysis is a little off kilter. As far as a predictive system goes, Hollinger's is one of the best. It takes a massive data set as a baseline, then creates a pythagorean to assess the strength of a team by normalizing it to what historically happens. But the system has obvious, and probably unavoidable, errors:

- It is a system that favors a huge win and a close loss over two close wins since the pythagorean is based on MOV.
- It is a system that doesn't balance a specific team's tendencies (human factors) to e.g. avoid injury or get better over the season.
- It is a system that normalizes mid-season data to an end-season result and avoids the play on the numbers that could eventually happen. This takes me back to the Golden State series. At the start of the series Hollinger had us at about 75% to win the series. After the G1 loss, he said we were only 50%. That's the hazard of basing percentages on incomplete information.

So Hollinger's real failing here is to rely too much on his own numbers and go back to justify what the numbers say. But that's the same failing that provided the impetus for him to create a ranking in the first place, and I'm happier with some sort of barometer, imperfect as it may be, than with not having one at all. It does give us a good guideline for where this team stands. It doesn't account for human factors.. those are for messageboards.

Thespiralgoeson · 01-08-2009, 04:17 AM

I don't see any "failing" here with Hollinger's article. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Mavs miss the playoffs.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

I don't see any "failing" here with Hollinger's article. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Mavs miss the playoffs.

Your two sentences are actually unrelated. Hollinger's conclusion might well be the correct one. But that doesn't mean his analysis is 100% merited. If Hollinger were to predict today that the Cavs will win the championship (which he does), his prediction might come true, but his methodology might still have failed. His argument seems weak because he (as he historically always does) probably sets up his arguments based on what his numbers tell him, and his numbers can be infinitely permutated between now and the end of the season. Again:

Quote:

Originally Posted by nowhereman

Hollinger's real failing here is to rely too much on his own numbers and go back to justify what the numbers say. But that's the same failing that provided the impetus for him to create a ranking in the first place, and I'm happier with some sort of barometer, imperfect as it may be, than with not having one at all. It does give us a good guideline for where this team stands. It doesn't account for human factors.. those are for messageboards.

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 05:37 AM

For the record, i would be mildly surprised if the Mavs did not make the playoffs. But it comes down to the result of immeasurable late-season scenarios. The Hollinger rankings exist to tell us basically where a team stands, based on objective (quantitative) measurements. But like I said, there's a ton of human factors, and the fact that the numbers will change considerably over the course of the season, and therefore there is a considerable margin of error in his calculations and his opinions. A much greater margin of error than the seperation between teams 2 and 9.

I don't agree with Hollinger's textual analysis here, and I do indeed think he worked backwards from a numerical conclusion to explain why the numbers turned out the way they did. When you're cranking out articles daily for the worldwide leader, it becomes a useful heuristic for analysis. We watch the team very closely, and we will all say that you can't really sell short the Mav's recent clutchness in the 4th quarter (memphis aside), Dirk Nowitzki's track record, and the fact that if this team is struggling near the allstar break it very well might swing for the fences with another trade. What everyone can agree on is that there isn't any real seperation demonstrated yet.

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 08:43 AM

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

Even tho the West is much tougher, the Mavs are likely to seed higher and have more wins than the NJNETS.

*Here I found you a new home. Try this place out, and forget this place ever existed.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=12

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Even tho the West is much tougher, the Mavs are likely to seed higher and have more wins than the NJNETS.

*Here I found you a new home. Try this place out, and forget this place ever existed.

http://www.insidehoops.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=12

I never said Nets were going to have more wins why are you bringging it back to the Nets. I thought at the beginning of the season and still think Mavs will only be in the playoffs at 7th or 8th seed and even if they are higher in seed I think the highest they go in 6th, and with the team right now I don't think they would do much in the playoffs.

and I already post there but thanks for the link anyway a little later there

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

I never said Nets were going to have more wins why are you bringging it back to the Nets. I thought at the beginning of the season and still think Mavs will only be in the playoffs at 7th or 8th seed

and I already post there but thanks for the link anyway a little later there

1)Because you are a nets fan.

2)What does that mean? a little later there...? Is it possible to check or do a once over before you press send on your comments? Every oner of yoursers are liked this ways. It's not brain seargentry!

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

1)Because you are a nets fan.

2)What does that mean? a little later there...? Is it possible to check or do a once over before you press send on your comments? Every oner of yoursers are liked this ways. It's not brain seargentry!

Yeah I am a Nets fans, but I didn't bring them up, so you didn't have to make a comment about them. You could have just said you think the mavs will be higher then 7th or 8th seed

And what I meant was "a little late there" meaning I already knew about the other site

nowhereman · 01-08-2009, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

If I had to bet money on who would make the playoffs I'd bet money on the mavs. I think they will make it in at 7th or 8th place in standings

I spend 10 minutes on a well thought out response and you follow it up with this sh*t and completely derail the thread. thanks, cooze.

Underdog · 01-08-2009, 08:46 AM

One injury to any star on any team Hollinger just mentioned and you can toss his numbers out the window... Same applies to a trade...

The NBA isn't a play-by-numbers sport - no sport is... That's why they call it a "sport"...

Chaos happens outside the vacuum of mathematical formulas - that's why we enjoy watching sports... Otherwise you can just build a team, run the numbers, hand out the trophy, and skip the season!

Flacolaco · 01-08-2009, 01:02 PM

Shes trying to woo you with some kind of odd Apple propaganda.

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 02:28 PM

That is the Mavs sailing the glorious seas of a winning record, unlike the NETS.

The NETS are in rought waters aboard the "FOREVER SHITTY".

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

That is the Mavs sailing the glorious seas of a winning record, unlike the NETS.

The NETS are in rought waters aboard the "FOREVER SHITTY".

well if the Mavs booked on and are sailing the glorious seas I hope they don't choose Carnival the cheapest line of them all

and the Nets aren't aboard that ship Brook wouldn't not allow that to happen they would be booked on this ship

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

hamb · 01-08-2009, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

well if the Mavs booked on and are sailing the glorious seas I hope they don't choose Carnival the cheapest line of them all

and the Nets aren't aboard that ship Brook wouldn't not allow that to happen they would be booked on this ship

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

stalker

Dirkadirkastan · 01-08-2009, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by basketballgirl25

^with Slash of course, and that really is Slash no joke he was on my cruise

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

He was the former guitarist of Guns'n'Roses (85-96) and is now playing for Velvet Revolver. He is not that unknown...

But for the latter part of your post: Yeah, could have been a possibility...

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportstudi

He was the former guitarist of Guns'n'Roses (85-96) and is now playing for Velvet Revolver. He is not that unknown...

But for the latter part of your post: Yeah, could have been a possibility...

I'm actually suprised by how many people don't know who slash is.

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

You bitch! I don't know who that guy is, but you ruined his cruise with your ugly face and foul stench.

are you for real, you don't know who he is, you must live on a different planet or something, that's like someone not knowing who Dirk is, Guns n' Roses dude, Guns n' Roses

and I didn't ruin his cruise, sorry to say your wrong.

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 03:42 PM

Nowhereman, why did you give me bad rep for this?

"I'm ruining it for everyone"? What does that mean?

(Am I not supposed to say if someone gives me neg rep?)

Dallas2009CHAMPS · 01-08-2009, 03:44 PM

zing

Flacolaco · 01-08-2009, 03:57 PM

So...That Hollinger...that guy sucks.

mary · 01-08-2009, 04:30 PM

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

Sportstudi · 01-08-2009, 04:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

You're right. But I just wanted to be polite and answer the question about that guy...

basketballgirl25 · 01-08-2009, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mary

I'm surprised how many threads in the Mavs section veer off into crap that doesn't remotely resemble sports talk.

If you want to share vacation stories, take it to the Lounge.

The Lounge would be the proper place for a "Hey look at me...I met a famous musician on a cruise ship" thread.

The middle of a Mavs related thread...not so much.

hey sorry, but I didn't start it someone else brought up the Nets and it wasn't me. that's how it all started on this thread

SMC0007 · 01-08-2009, 05:03 PM

I thought Slash was what the EMO kids went home and did if they had a bad day???

Ehh, I wonder if Hollinger knows who Slash is.

Go MAVS.

LSMF · 01-08-2009, 06:11 PM

This article is spot on in my mind, Mavs won't miss the playoffs but "they just aren't that good" is correct. This team is mediocre.

mary · 01-08-2009, 06:23 PM

I've got no problem with the article. Its a real possibility that the Mavs will miss the playoff. My only problem is this part.

Quote:

And even with everything more or less going right and most of the competition suffering form serious problems, they still can't pull away -- because basically, they just aren't that good.

I think he's overstating the "serious problems" of the other teams in comparison to what's been happening with the Mavs. For example, the Spurs have had Parker and Manu back for weeks, and haven't "pulled away" either.

cowdog80 · 01-09-2009, 01:38 AM

Hollinger was much more likable until his formula "picked" the Spurs to win the championship in 2007.

Ever since he got that one right, he's been loving the smell of his own farts way too much.

Dirkadirkastan · 01-09-2009, 02:23 AM

Thousands of people predicted that without some crazy formula.

endrity · 01-09-2009, 07:34 AM

Why is it than when someone makes a prediction against the team you root for, than that someone is "stupid" or at the very least biased? Why is it hard to accept that the person might have legitimate reasons for that opinion.

Fact is the Mavs have had an easy schedule, yet they struggle even against weak teams. A good team in the west will miss the playoffs, and it might not be a surprise if the Mavs are that team.

Even if he doesn't predict everything correctly, Hollinger still does very well with his stats. He has been correct on the champions the last two years when popular opinion was picking another team. And his articles remain the most insightful out of any writer out there. He is by far my favourite writer, telling me something that I might have missed.

joemoeschmoe · 01-09-2009, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by endrity

Why is it than when someone makes a prediction against the team you root for, than that someone is "stupid" or at the very least biased? Why is it hard to accept that the person might have legitimate reasons for that opinion.

The same reason you boo any call against the Mavs at a game - even if its a good call.

The biggest problem isn't that he's picked the Mavs, its the methods he used to pick them. He basically just picked the team that was 9th in his computer rankings and then made up reasons that apply to other teams just as easily for why we'll be the odd team out.

I don't have a problem with him picking the Mavs. In fact, I like it. I have a problem with his BS reasoning for picking them. He should just say that they're 9th in West Playoff odds and, because he believes in his rankings, they're the most likely team to not make it.

darkwitzki · 01-09-2009, 09:35 AM

Maybe Hollinger wants us to do some trade or else "I'll fail you on the playoff machine"..