Superstar or Bargain?

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http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slu...nnsi&type=lgns

Superstar or bargain?

John Donovan, SI.com

Theo Epstein has every baseball statistic known to mankind at his fingertips. He has Bill James, who conjured up the formulas for half of those stats, on the payroll. Epstein, the young general manager of the Boston Red Sox, has more information on more players than any single baseball executive maybe has ever had.

Still, he wonders. As he's picking at the free-agent bin this offseason, looking for those one or two or three players who finally may get the Red Sox over the hump, Epstein has to be asking himself this one important question: Big splash or wise cash?

It's something a lot of teams have been asking in this first week of free-agent shopping: Spend the money on a so-called proven superstar, or go for that bargain-basement gem?

Let's poke around a little to see what's out there ...

Big splash: If a GM wants a solid lefty, there's really only one guy, and that's the Yankees' Andy Pettitte. If it's a righty a team needs, it's Bartolo Colon of the White Sox or Kevin Millwood of the Phillies. None will come cheaply -- Pettitte made $11.5 million, Colon $8.25 million and Millwood $10 million last season -- and all will want long-term deals. Millwood, in fact, is talking five years, though he's unlikely to get that. All three are decent bets to have good, productive seasons. Pettitte bounced back with a 21-win season in 2003 after his one season of fewer than 30 starts. Colon (15 wins) started at least 30 games for the sixth straight year, throwing 242 innings. And though there was some worry about Millwood's second half (4-6, 4.58 ERA), getting him onto a team with a decent bullpen would help. Buyer beware: Greg Maddux is too expensive and on the downside of his career. But he'd make a splash, too.

Wise cash: He's no ace, but Miguel Batista of the Diamondbacks has always been a team guy who can start (29 starts in each of the past two years) or come out of the pen. He'd rather start, and on a team with some offense, he can be a good middle-of-the-rotation guy for between $2.5 million and $4 million a year.

Big splash: Depends what a team needs. There are a lot of big-name closers and setup men on the market -- Ugueth Urbina, Eddie Guardado, Armando Benitez, Shigetoshi Hasegawa -- but no one is hotter now than A's fireman Keith Foulke. Epstein's Red Sox are looking at him, as are a lot of other teams. He made $6 million last season, saving 43 games in 48 tries, which could push his salary for 2004 up into the $8 million range.

Wise cash: Two guys who might be had for much cheaper than that are the Twins' LaTroy Hawkins and the Dodgers' Paul Quantrill. Hawkins (75 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings, with a 1.86 ERA) made $3 million as the setup man for Guardado in 2003. Quantrill (61 hits in 77 1/3, with a 1.75 ERA) turned down a $3.1 million option in L.A for 2004. Both will get raises, but they won't be in the Foulke range.

Big splash: Anaheim's Scott Spiezio is known as a clutch player, driving in 19 postseason runs during the Angels' run to the World Series in 2002. That helped get him a $4.25 million contract for 2003, when he was solid (.265, 66 strikeouts to 46 walks, 83 RBIs) if not studly. Spiezio has suitors, which means he's likely to get a raise to somewhere in the $5 million range, but not much more. In an older group of first basemen in this free agent crop, he's liable to be the best bet out there. Texas' Rafael Palmeiro, who made $9 million last season, wants big money ($10 million or more a year) but probably won't get it.

Wise cash: Tampa Bay's Travis Lee (.275, 19 homers, 70 RBIs) has always had more potential than proof. But he's coming off his best season (career highs in hits, 149, and average) and he's a legitimate player in the field. He turned down a $2.5 million option with the Rays, so he'll be looking for at least that somewhere else. For $3 million or so, he could be a steal. Or not.

Big splash: Florida's Luis Castillo, as bad as he looked in the World Series, is really a good slap hitter, a natural leadoff guy with plenty of speed and one of the best gloves in the business. He hit .314 last season for the Marlins and walked more than he struck out, so he'll get on base. He also made $4.85 million. With the Yankees in the bidding already, you know that number will go up.

Wise cash: We like both Roberto Alomar and Mark Grudzielanek, for different reasons, but both will be way too expensive to be considered bargains (Alomar made almost $8 million last season with the Mets and White Sox, Grudzielanek $5.5 million with the Cubs). Best to go with Boston's Todd Walker here, who hit .283 with 13 homers and 85 RBIs and made $3.45 million. He won't get much more than that on the open market.

Big splash: No. Not in this bunch.

Wise cash: Baltimore's Tony Batista can drive in some runs -- 99 last season -- but he strikes out too much, doesn't walk nearly enough and made $6.4 million last season. He's looking at a pay cut, but unless that cut is super drastic, he's probably not in the wise buy bin. K.C.'s Joe Randa is a bit more affordable ($4.5 million last season). He'll drive in runs and is a solid guy in the clubhouse who can help a younger team.

Big splash: The 2002 American League MVP, Oakland's Miguel Tejada, is officially on the market. Tejada slammed 27 homers and drove in 106 runs last year, but a slow first half (.245) may hurt what could have been an astronomical contract. As it is, the 27-year-old Tejada will go from a salary of $5.1 million to maybe $10 million a season, depending on who's driving the bidding.

Wise cash: Backups are easy to come by. Guys like Rey Sanchez and Rey Ordonez can be had cheaply. But for starters, the best bet is longtime San Fran shortstop Rich Aurilia, who had a breakout year in 2001 with 37 homers but has been sliding ever since, mainly due to injuries (an elbow in 2002, especially). He made $6.25 million last year, but at 32, he won't get that in this market. He's still steady, though, and with a little luck and some improved health, he could bounce back to close to his 2001 level.

Big splash: Here, it's either Florida postseason hero Ivan Rodriguez or reborn Atlanta backstop Javy Lopez. Either way, it makes a splash. Pudge made $10 million in an incentive-laden contract last season -- everybody said he was well worth it -- and will want to increase that this year. That may make Lopez, who had a career year (.328, 43 homers, 109 RBIs) even more attractive. He made $7 million, though many who view his 2003 season as a fluke may not be willing to match that salary in 2004.

Wise cash: For a short-term move, a team could do a lot worse than the ageless Benito Santiago, who is still in spectacular shape, hit .279 with 11 homers and 56 RBIs last year and can be had for less than $2 million (he made $1.7 last season).

Big splash: Let's talk Vladimir Guerrero and Gary Sheffield, the two players who will set the bar for this market. The Expos' Guerrero is a bundle of raw talent, a free swinger who hit .330 with 25 homers and 79 RBIs last year -- in just 112 games. His combined on-base and slugging percentage was over 1.000. And he's only 27. He made $11.5 million last season and could increase that to $13-14 million this time around. Maybe more. There are questions as to how good he would be in a high-pressure market like New York. But someone, somewhere, will offer him that kind of money. Sheffield was every bit as good for the Braves last season (39 homers, a career-high .330 batting average and a career-high 132 RBIs), making $11 million. He's older -- he'll be 35 next season -- so teams may not be willing to go so high for him. But he'll still notice something extra in his paycheck. Both guys have exceptional arms. These will be the ones to watch this winter.

Wise cash: It may be a bit of a chance, but Jose Guillen made only $500,000 last year. For somewhere between $3 million and $4 million, at the most, a team can have an outfielder who could perform like Guillen did when he played for both the Reds and A's last season (.311, 31 homers, 86 RBIs). Of course, Guillen never hit more than .274 in any year before that, never had more than 14 homers. So, a team could get that guy. But he's still young (27) and, at that price, he's probably worth the chance.