Obama beats McCain in three swing states: poll

[GermanDunk]

Manipulation ?

[rabbitproof]

Welcome to the world of market research.

[Janett_Reno]

Looking good for Obama. Look at the last 8 years of failed policy as pres, 6 years of a republican congress and senate. Things are going to be looking alot bluer in the next 4 years and the bar is set pretty low to out perform the neocons we have in now. Like i said long ago before this happened, W and the Boy's was going to try to bankrupt us everyway they could try to and they have a good job at it. Hmmm dude, didn't you use to want less taxes and less gov in business? I wonder what happened to a republican and what they stood for? I guess W and the Boy's kicked all them to the curb.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Graph of each state

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...raphs/all.html

[GermanDunk]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

Looking good for Obama. Look at the last 8 years of failed policy as pres, 6 years of a republican congress and senate. Things are going to be looking alot bluer in the next 4 years and the bar is set pretty low to out perform the neocons we have in now. Like i said long ago before this happened, W and the Boy's was going to try to bankrupt us everyway they could try to and they have a good job at it. Hmmm dude, didn't you use to want less taxes and less gov in business? I wonder what happened to a republican and what they stood for? I guess W and the Boy's kicked all them to the curb.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Graph of each state

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...raphs/all.html

Do you think so ? It depends on some states. Whole world knows this. Tell me how Obama will succeed in Ind, Mich Ohi, and so on... ? And Florida.... ?
Democrats could win KS if the republican candidat was non-circumcised, gay, divorced, communist, transvestite jew. Sure, but it doesn´t matter.

Change: Obama changes nothing. He wants to be president. Thats Ok. But he will not bring the great change.

[Janett_Reno]

Originally Posted by GermanDunk

Do you think so ? It depends on some states. Whole world knows this. Tell me how Obama will succeed in Ind, Mich Ohi, and so on... ? And Florida.... ?
Democrats could win KS if the republican candidat was non-circumcised, gay, divorced, communist, transvestite jew. Sure, but it doesn´t matter.

Change: Obama changes nothing. He wants to be president. Thats Ok. But he will not bring the great change.

Obama has many ways to win, McSame doesn't. Mac must carry FL, OH and he loses if he loses either state. He can still lose if he wins both Oh and Fl. If Big Mac wins Fl & Oh then he must either win Pa for a win or he must win Oh, Fl and almost carry every swing state out there and he can't do it.

I have said Oh and Fl is very close. These are two states Big mac can't lose and Obama is way to close here. In the last two weeks watch where Bill Clinton will be, Fl, Oh, Pa and Nv. It is a possibility the democrats send him to ark but i wouldn't count on that state. In never goes dem and hasn't in i forget how many years, almost never. It is in play this year for several reasons and Obama has a shot at this state. Obama is closing in on NC and Va. Pulling away in ia, nm and stretching out in co. It doesn't look good for Big Mac. Everything must break right for Mac to win.

I'll give you a lil inside secret, when Bush beat Kerry in Fl and even before this, Bush beat Gore. The dems was suppose to go on a push in fl on signing voters up but they did not after Gore. They did after the Gore defeat. It is big Clinton supporters in Fl. Bill and Hillary will be there alot as well will Obama. Latino and young voters will come out. It's also alot of NY'ers in FL that vote in FL. I feel the dem push from 4 years ago, plus other things i mentioned will make this very close. It can go either way. Mac should get alot of retiree votes and it is alot of retired people in FL but this is also the vote Bill and Hillary are trying to work on. You should see a huge latino turn out this time. It has been alot of money spent trying to flip Fl. Republicans have spent alot of money and time trying to flip Pa also. This was why Biden or Hillary had to be vice. To bring Pa on home.

No democrat will win Kansas. Mac will landslide Kansas. Oh is interesting and again the Clintons and Biden is important with Obama. It's to close to call and Mac or Obama can win here and it be no upset or surprise. States that the dems have made huge register voter turn out and swamped the republicans in are va(remember Webb had no shot at Allen, he was the next guy the republicans was running for pres). Webb done something very few have in history. Webb will probably never be anything big again in politics for name calling and getting beat in a race where it was close to almost impossible on getting beat. It was luck involved in Webb beating him but also Va is getting bluer and Va was a red state. I said was. The dems have turned out registering people in va, nv, fl, and i am not sure but maybe oh and nc was mentioned also. I totally forget on co and maybe this is the reason on co also but not sure.

If Big Mac loses any of these states i predict he loses. FL, OH, NC, VA, IN. If he loses a combo of Co & NV, also say Mac loses. If Big Mac wins nh it stings. Big Mac has to win Pa and he wins. Big Mac won't win Pa. It is close but right now the 10% undecided in Pa are from Southwest Pa and are Democrats. They are huge Clinton supporters and it has been some to say well if they haven't made their mind up, then McCain will win Pa. I say that is wrong. They are democrats and i feel Bill and Hillary can help bring them home and with Biden. You have to remind them, do you want 5.00 a gallon gas prices, less jobs, more borrowing money from china and selling your bankrupted bussinesses to China, how about more conflicts in the middle east and us jumping head first in on them. You just have to remind them of the big spending bankrupting republicans that live off credit cards. I feel the democrats of Pa will make the right decision. This is Big Macs way to victory and if he can hold those big states i mention.

The other way Mac can win is hold and then run most all the swing states. Maybe losing one or two small ones. He is having to hold to many places and the dems have them fighting in to many fronts and as you see the dems are starting to push thru this week. Many states are done and it is many i can already tell you who won in, Mac or Obama, they are thru. Mo and Wv is not out of the woods for Big Mac but Obama must atleast make a visit to Wv.

In the end you will see that the Clintons carry a bigger stick than Dick Cheney, The Bushies, Joe Libberman, Bay Buchanan, Pat Buchanan and as far as that goes people will trust Obama over Big Mac on the economy. What is happening now in the economy is no surprise at all as i have been saying this would happen. Guess what? It's gonna get even worse. The economy will trump Grahmn, Bush, Cheney, Rove, McCain and the cons trying to sell the American public that times are good and we are a bunch of cry babies. Times are not good in the economic sector. You know, the sector that what a republican stands for or suppose to, is less taxes, less gov in business, when they are buying out 700 billon dollars worth of faied bussiness co's and charging the tax payers. Oh Janett Reno has told you to get out of debt and trust me, this is not the last you heard of it. You also better remember this, just because they are going to try to bankrupt social security, and raid the federal reserve and your tax dollars, when you start to say well i want some of that money because i am in debt also. They will tell you, to bad, get over it, give us your car and house and you hit the road. You better get out of debt because it won't be any hand outs unless you own a big firm. This is not for the lil man.

[Janett_Reno]

Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080925/...VMUFaFSmuyFz4D

People with only cell phones may differ enough from those with landline telephones that excluding the growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results, a study has concluded.

The finding, in a report this week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, may increase pressure on polling organizations to include people who use only cell phones in their surveys. While many major polls including The Associated Press-GfK Poll already interview cell phone users, some do not, largely because doing so is more expensive.

Earlier studies — including a joint Pew-AP report two years ago — concluded that cell and landline users had similar enough views that not calling cell users had no major impact on poll findings. The new report concludes that "this assumption is increasingly questionable," especially for young people, who use cells heavily.

Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.

Similarly, young cell users preferred Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by 35 percentage points. For young landline users, it was a smaller 13-point Obama edge.

Scott Keeter, Pew's director of survey research, said he believed this was because young cell-only users are less likely to own homes and be married than young people with landlines.

"Those are two variables that are associated with being somewhat more conservative and more Republican," he said.

The report released Tuesday said that in Pew presidential polls from June, August and September, Obama's lead was 2 or 3 percentage points smaller when cell users were omitted. Though such small discrepancies are usually within a poll's margin of error and not statistically significant, this suggests some bias could exist by omitting cell users, which could be crucial in studying a race as close as this year's presidential race.

It has long been known cell users are likelier to be younger, lower income and minorities. Pollsters routinely weight, or adjust, their data so it accurately reflects the age, race and other demographic features of the entire population.

According to federal figures, 16 percent of households had only cell phones during the second half of 2007, and another 13 percent had cell phones and landlines but seldom used the landlines to take calls. Cell-only households have been growing by 1 or 2 percentage points every half year.

[Janett_Reno]

In my last post, i need to correct, the dems made a big push in fl after the kerry defeat. The dems have been in fl for 4 years. If Hillary had been the nominee, she would have won Fl. The dems still feel they can but now is harder.

I mention also, Allen from Va won't be much ever again in politics and has made Jim Webb's stock rise alot.

It is so bad now you can't get many republicans to say i voted for George W Bush. You can't get many to say i am republican. You can't get many to even admit we are in hard times and trying to put blinders over the publics eyes and pretending we are in good shape. Chris Mathews who i feel is a republican, has been upset interviewing republicans and can't even get them to admit to taking any blame, that they won't say who they votted for in the last Kerry/Bush election, or not answering questions he directs to them. Then it was total shock for W to ever admit we could be getting in bad shape unless we borrowed 700 more billion. He did this on national tv and was maybe the first time in almost 8 years. People do not believe Phil Graham, when he says we are in good times and who don't believe it are cry babies. How old is Graham? Could he be older than McSame? These people need to wake up.

Selling out to China is not the answer. Us being slaves to China and Saudi is not the answer. Giving our businesses and land to China is not the answer. Selling wall street to China and then borrowing money to pay back China for buying our wall street bussinesses is not the answer. All these republicans that are in love with China and Saudi, one day is really going to regret it.

[GermanDunk]

Thanks for your answer. I´ll try to anwer more detailed tomorrow but, gas, mortgage, bail, whatever. I have that certain feeling Obama should have stored a little more dry powder for the last weeks.
Cain wil make the pace. That´s just what i feel. Not proven. Just feeling.

[Janett_Reno]

Originally Posted by GermanDunk

Thanks for your answer. I´ll try to anwer more detailed tomorrow but, gas, mortgage, bail, whatever. I have that certain feeling Obama should have stored a little more dry powder for the last weeks.
Cain wil make the pace. That´s just what i feel. Not proven. Just feeling.

Money talks and this year the democrats can match the republicans with ever red cent. Borrowed money, play money or real green backs. The race has just now begun with Obama and the democrats. McCain throwing another hail mary pass because Obama was going out front again. Look what this is making McCain look like. Just like another Phil Graham. Know him or want me to explain who he is? They have a muzzle on Sarah Palin and she is only allowed to have conversation with certain ones and even then she blunders. Now McCain is running wanting people to beg him to debate? He can't skip the debate. He may wish he could skip all debates but he must face Obama sometime and it wouldn't have been any easier against Hillary Clinton. McCain better start using his head and stop listening to Graham, Rove and the cons.

John McCain or Obama has had nothing to do with this bail out. NOTHING. It is Reid, Frank, Bush, Boehner but also it is republicans and democrats that oppose it.

The real truth is the cons has put McCain behind the 8-ball and no where to hide or run to. Again, here comes the cons. The truth, McCain has faced a no-win situation for days. To support the bailout or a similar plan would put him at odds with millions of voters and many House Republicans at a time his campaign is sliding in the polls. Also, McCain has struggled to distance himself from the unpopular Bush, and embracing the administration's plan would clearly not help.

Remember what republicans and dude says they don't stand for, that is not being receptive to government regulation of powerful institutions. Remember what dude says, less taxes and less gov in business. Not tax payers paying for wall street mistakes and not paying to bail out big business thru gov. Now his hero, W is doing just that and where does this leave McCain? I mean come on, can the cons put McCain anymore in a frying pan than they are doing? Not the democrats but the neocons.

Now if he Opposes Bush's plan, this would open him to accusations of walking away from a national crisis. If it triggered more Wall Street catastrophes, as the administration said it would, the criticism would be even worse. So in the end McCain is going to look back at his politcal career and think, if i would have broke away from W, Chains and Rove when i was fussing and fighting with them and stayed a Maverick and cut ties with them instead of being a puppet, just like W is and joined them, how would i have done as running for president? Instead everytime i get close to the goal i desire, the cons are nipping at my heels again and again and i can't shake them or if i join them, they still cave me in. That is what the Maverick got when he decided to join the neocons when they threatned to kick him out of the party and he also can't stand for W, whom is younger and whom he thinks is probably wet behind the ears, he is having to still answer to and follow as well be a yes man to all his policy and decisions or else he again is slapped down again.

The race is close and McCain didn't need to panic and yes he has slipped a tad lately but still very strong and anyones race. McCain's raod is a little harder of the states he needs comparred to Obaba but it is very doable. He needs to keep his cool and stop throwing hail mary passes as he only has 4 or 5 more weeks to go and then he is either pres or not. He must trust himself and not the cons. Obama wasn't going to run away from a debate or a chance to tell the American people his plan as pres and the cons telling Mac to throw another hail mary would maybe make Obama pull out untill we can figure things out is McInsane. The democrats won't go for that, no can do. Mac needs to ride things out and be his own man and see who wins in the end.

[Flacolaco]

It is so bad now you can't get many republicans to say i voted for George W Bush. You can't get many to say i am republican.

This is your opinion. You should state it as such.

Your posts are so bloody arrogant, it is unbelievable.

[Janett_Reno]

McCain Team Blasts Poll Showing Obama Leading

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnews/20080...ngobamaleading

I agree with alot of this. The race is close and even if it is 5 to 7 points one way or the other at election day, it is still close and no one knows. I am just saying in the end as the country is split close half and half, it will be several factors. That is the unlikely's and i feel unlikely's favor Obama. One unlikely that could help McCain is Hillary women voters, if they could peal enough of them away. I just don't think they can peal enough of them with palin or in numbers that the dems have registered and the "unlikely" voters that will turn out for Obama.

As far as polls, it is fun to watch and keep up with but the polls after these debates is a better place knowing where we stand. One day Obama is up and the next McCain, back and forth. This is also why this race can't be predicted. If Mac loses FL and Oh, it would be a landslide for Obama or a big margin. If Mac wins Oh and FL, no matter what Obama does, it will be close and even if Obama wins and i feel he will, he won't run off and leave Mac. I do not believe it will be a clear cut victory for either on FL, OH, NC, maybe Co, NV, Va, In, Wv, possibly Pa.

This is why McCain doesn't need to go InSane in the Membrane with the hail mary's. Keep er close and anything can happen election night. If these "unlikely" voters do not come out, Big Mac can win and will if it's close but again i feel Big Mac can thank his biggest buddy George W Bush that alot of "unlikely's" are comming out to vote just because of a man named W.

W has been a thorn in Big Mac's side for awhile.

[Murphy3]

I think a few liberals on here post some well thought out posts from time to time.. and then there's J.Reno.

[Mavdog]

not sure if murph is using sarcasm or not....

saw this and thought it was relevant.
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SEPTEMBER 26, 2008 'Wal-Mart Women' Vote Remains in Play
Retailer's Shoppers Are Seen to Represent Key Bloc in Election
By MIGUEL BUSTILLO and ANN ZIMMERMAN

Hoping to capitalize on the voting might of its working-class customers, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. released results of its own poll Thursday showing the "Wal-Mart Women" vote coveted by both presidential candidates is still up for grabs in five battleground states.

Wal-Mart's customer poll found that Wal-Mart women were slightly more likely to support Sen. John McCain in Ohio and Florida, and Sen. Barack Obama in Virginia, Nevada and Colorado, though only a few percentage points separated preferences in each state.
Wal-Mart said it commissioned the survey to test the voting preferences of men and women who are shopping at its stores. But the poll was clearly an exercise in public relations. The discount retailer sought to play up the notion that Wal-Mart's customers have a key role in November's elections to show that it is a political force to be reckoned with.

Pollsters have emblematized part of the crucial working-class swing vote as "Wal-Mart Women," defined as more socially conservative women who typically don't have a college degree, who are feeling the economic pinch and are shopping at Wal-Mart for its lower prices.

The rise of Wal-Mart's female customers as a sought-after voting bloc has presented the Bentonville, Ark.-based company with an unprecedented opportunity to help choose the next president -- and it's trying to make the most of it.

The political poll, conducted for the company by a bipartisan team of pollsters, isn't the first Wal-Mart has conducted, but it is the first it has made public, said Wal-Mart spokesman David Tovar.

Recent economic conditions have more people shopping at Wal-Mart for essentials, making the so-called Wal-Mart Women an increasingly substantial demographic in this year's election.

In addition to the survey, Wal-Mart is distributing demographic summaries to the press of the archetypal Wal-Mart Woman -- or Wal-Mart Mom, as they are also known -- and it has launched a voter-registration drive to ensure that more of its customers make it to the polls.

The rise of Wal-Mart Women marks a turnaround in Wal-Mart's political fortunes. In past years, Wal-Mart has been a favorite punching bag as candidates invoked the megaretailer as a symbol of corporate greed. Just two years ago, Democratic presidential candidates such as Sen. Joe Biden -- now Sen. Obama's running mate -- were attacking Wal-Mart for low wages and paltry health-care benefits as part of a broader strategy to curry favor with labor unions and capitalize on Americans' economic anxieties.

But as Wal-Mart Women take center stage in this year's race for the blue-collar vote -- and the economic slowdown makes Wal-Mart's fixation on low prices fashionable with growing numbers of Americans -- the criticism has quieted, a shift that is boosting the company's efforts to burnish its image.

"Candidates see our shoppers as representative of Americans worried about today's economy," said Leslie Dach, a former Washington public-relations guru and veteran of seven Democratic presidential campaigns hired by Wal-Mart to help repair its reputation.
With more Americans turning to Wal-Mart for essentials such as food, health care and gasoline, candidates run a risk of alienating voters by assailing the company, said Neil Newhouse, a partner with the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. The firm coined the term Wal-Mart Women a year ago to categorize the voting bloc expected to be this season's equivalent of the soccer moms of 1996 and Nascar dads of 2004. It found in a poll this month that nearly a third of expected voters now shopped at Wal-Mart. "You're not going to bash a place that 30% of likely voters go to on a weekly basis," Mr. Newhouse said. "It doesn't make political sense."

Bruised by a drumbeat of criticism alleging stingy and discriminatory treatment of its employees, Wal-Mart has been making an aggressive push in recent years to rehabilitate its image, hiring a public-relations firm to help it answer critics, launching a campaign to reduce its environmental impact, and expanding a $4 prescription generic-drug plan to help combat high health-care costs.

Wal-Mart also has so far doled out more campaign contributions to Democrats than Republicans in the House of Representatives this election cycle -- a first for the traditionally GOP-leaning company.

Wal-Mart hasn't escaped criticism this year. A group of unions has asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate whether the company improperly cautioned tens of thousands of store supervisors that voting for Democrats, including Sen. Obama, could hurt the company because the Democrats support a bill that would make unionizing easier.
The union-backed anti-Wal-Mart group Wake Up Wal-Mart has been running negative ads in seven states that show Sen. McCain in front of a Wal-Mart logo and accuse him of favoring reckless corporate tax cuts.

Still, the shift in Wal-Mart's image this political season has frustrated the company's foes, who argue that their claims about Wal-Mart exploiting American workers and pushing jobs offshore remain as relevant as ever.

"Even people who don't necessarily feel good about Wal-Mart's policies have found themselves shopping there because of how bad things have gotten," said Meghan Scott, a spokeswoman for Wake Up Wal-Mart.

[Janett_Reno]

The polls and race begin tonight. The first debate and i do feel the debates will be important and especially in a close race like this. Something else important that McCain and Obama hasn't been involved in at all but it looks as if they are going to bring them in on, is this wall street bail out. Both men know they have to be on the right side or they both will vote and support or oppose the same final bill.

This is a huge mess and 700 billon is not chump change. It's a mess and it matters.

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This is part of the "unlikely" i have been talking about with also minority and young people votting like never before. When i mention the word minority, this doesn't mean just african american. It means others. You can look at the numbers in some of these states.

1. Nevada: Dems Take Registration Lead From GOP.

In this state, Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 565,855 to 489,802. -- a lead of 76,053.

That's a turnaround from 2004, where Republicans narrowly led Dems, 434,239 to 429,808. Since then, Dems increased by 136,047, while Republicans only increased by 55,563.

Does this matter? Yes but the reps didn't have a big lead and the dems do not have a big lead but in a close race it can matter. Casino building and construction has came to a halt. People have stopped in the midde of building and just sitting there. Nv has been hit hard and it will hurt having Cheney and W on your side but also McCain is not far from Nv and this could possibly help and Palin in the west could be a boost. This state matters.

2. Florida: Dem Lead Edges Up.

Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 4,453,008 to 3,954,884 -- a lead of 498,124. In 2004, Dems led by a slightly smaller amount, 4,322,376 to 3,954,492. Since then, Dems increased their registration by 130,632, while the GOP only increased by 392.

This state matters. It's a must for McCain. The Clintons must be a big part of FL to help Obama win. I won't go into the details but this state is close. Voter turn out will be important in this state, seniors and the young people are both important for both sides.

3. Pennsylvania: Dem Lead Jumps Significantly.

Registered Dems lead registered Republicans, 4,336,224 to 3,199,837 -- a large lead of 1,136,387. That's a significant jump from 2004, when Dems led Republicans by less than half as much, 3,985,486 to 3,405,278, Since then Dem registration has jumped a surprising 350,738, while GOP registration has plummeted by 205,441.


This is a state where reps are trying to take over and move more reps into. If you go look at w/Gore, W/Kerry this state is always close even though it is more dems. This state would be very important for reps to break thru now and later. It is alot of Clinton backers in this state, just like Fl. I feel Obama wins Pa and he must but again Biden and Clintons help him here.

4. North Carolina: Dem Lead Increases.

In this reliably red state, Dems lead the GOP by 2,714,656 to 1,952,013 -- a lead of 762,643. That's an increase in the Dem lead from 2004, when Dems led 2,582,462 to 1,903,119. Since then, Dem registration has jumped 132,194 while GOP registration has only risen 48,894.

This isn't good for the reps and they actually need this state as this starts to come into the south. This state can and probably will be close. Where reps want pa forever and dems need to hold, this state is also for reps to hold now and in the future because then the dems inch down a lil more getting towards the south. This state is huge if Obama breaks thru and i am not saying he will but he very well could. I also say if he wins NC and it's 15ev's then McCain will lose. Polls i think show Mac up 2 points or so now.

5. Colorado: Dems Wipe Away Most Of GOP's Advantage.

In this state, which may prove pivotal, Dems have wiped away a once-lopsided GOP advantage, with GOP registration now leading the Dems, 1,029,062 to 955,428 -- a lead of 73,634. That lead is a significant drop from 2004, when the GOP led Dems by 1,118,597 to 942,025, a lead of 176,572. The shift was fueled by the fact that since then the number of registered GOPers has dropped by 89,535, while Dem registration has gone up 13,403.

Reps still have a lead but much closer. This state is important and Obama is up now.

6. New Mexico: The Dems' Sizable Advantage Edges Up.

In this state, registered Dems lead GOPers by 563,103 to 360,513 -- a lead of 202,590.
That's a very slight improvement since 2004, when Dems led the GOP by 534,794 to 339,926. Dem registration went up 28,309, while the GOP increased slightly less, 20,587.

Obama should win here and this is a pick up from Kerry. Ia is also.

7. New Hampshire: GOP Lead Shrinks To Almost Nothing.

In this independent-heavy state, the GOP has a very slight edge over the Dems, 268,108 to 263,217 -- a lead of 4,891. That lead is down from 38,004 in 2004, when the GOP led Dems by 266,770 to 228,766. Since then Dem registration has jumped 34,451, while GOP registration has gone up only 1,338.

This state has 4 ev's and no that isn't much but it can mean the difference if Obama paints all the north east blue or Mac slips in a red state. Mac might have an outside shot at me also. Obama is only up 1 in nh. You never know in a race this close when you might need 4ev's. This state should be very close. It's worth saying also independents new that has registered has gone up in the above states for independents as well. Other key states is Va and i predict if Obama breaks thru Va he wins and Va is 13ev's. Oh, MN and i feel this state is important for the dems to hold. Nm and Or and i predict Obama has won both of these.

One state that is never mentioned and they take it for granted, McCain has won it and it is Mo. Mac's lead was 5 and now down to 2 and this isn't considered a battleground state. Mac can't lose this state because it is over if he does and Party affiliation is not required for voters to register in Missouri. You could be in for a shock right here on what i am hearing. 11 ev's. Someone going door to door in Mo mentions and this is people they are registering, 60% are voting Obama, 20% undecided and the rest for McCain. Keep in mind this is only one persons account. Also keep in mind, maybe alot of people that do not vote and registered are registering to vote against Bush. So this is not talking about voters already registered but only what one person is seeing as they keep tabs on what they are doing personally.

There is no official party affiliation in VA but i am hearing 250 thousand new voters in Va and 80% looks to be votting Obama. Remember these are unlikely voters the polls do not see. The states i feel that are going to be huge on who wins are Va, Nc, Nv, Co, In, and mo. Yes Fl, Oh and Pa is huge but McCain is "suppose" and must win Fl and Oh and Obama is "suppose" and must win Pa. The real race starts tonight with this debate. Each and every day is one day closer to someone new in the white house. Let's just hope that someone is Obama and brings change to someone that totally tried to bankrupt this country.

[Janett_Reno]

Well in the debates i felt both did good. Obama started strong and McCain ended strong. I do not think either hurt their chances at being the next pres. I feel it will come down to if you feel we should grow the economy in the middle or if you feel we should grow the economy at the top. Then that fine line of voters in the middle, who they will turn out for.

The states i mentioned will decide the election. Not just oh and fl and yes they are important but if Mac wins both those, then how the others fall will decide. It will be interesting and next debate should be good also between Palin/Biden.

[Janett_Reno]

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/...etwork_und.php

40% of uncommitted voters who watched the debate tonight thought Barack Obama was the winner. 22% thought John McCain won. 38% saw it as a draw.

68% of these voters think Obama would make the right decision
about the economy. 41% think McCain would.

49% of these voters think Obama would make the right decisions about Iraq. 55% think McCain would.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Two focus groups, one by GOP pollster Frank Luntz and another by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, both declare Obama the winner. Independents in the MediaCurves focus group "gave the debate to Obama 61-39. They also think he won every individual segment. Republicans gave the debate to McCain 90-10, Democrats to Obama 93-7."

And even Time's Mark Halperin weighs in with his grades: Obama A-, McCain B-.

Update: Even Dick Morris (!) says Obama won.

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I personally felt the debate was a draw but again i am not undecided. I judged the first part Obama did better and the last half i felt McCain did better. Both did good but also it was some questions they both danced around and never answered. You learn as a politician.

[Janett_Reno]

The race started today and now all of you can watch the polls. The polls now matter, from here on in.

Sept 27 Real Politics,
-------------------------
Iowa Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 43 Obama +8
National Gallup Tracking Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 50, McCain 44 Obama +6
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 43 Obama +5

Sept 26 on Real Politics site
-------------------------------
Virginia Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5(Mac must win this one).
Florida Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 47 McCain +1 (To Close)
New York SurveyUSA Obama 57, McCain 38 Obama +19
Missouri SurveyUSA McCain 48, Obama 46 McCain +2(This was Mac's and not suppose to be this close)
Missouri Post-Dispatch/R2000 McCain 47, Obama 46 McCain +1(Same Thing)
Oregon Research 2000 Obama 53, McCain 39 Obama +14
Montana Research 2000 McCain 52, Obama 39 McCain +13
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2(Nice one for Mac)
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
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More For Today
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Colorado 45% 48% Sep 23 Sep 25 ARG(Nice comeback for Mac here)
Connecticut 54% 38% Sep 24 Sep 25 SurveyUSA
Florida 47% 46% Sep 23 Sep 25 ARG(Obama wins, if he takes this one)
Florida 47% 48% Sep 24 Sep 24 Rasmussen(Close, game over if Mac loses FL)
Missouri 46% 47% Sep 22 Sep 24 Research 2000(Like Va, Mac can't lose here)
Montana 39% 52% Sep 22 Sep 24 Research 2000
Pennsylvania 47% 43% Sep 21 Sep 25 Muhlenberg Coll.(Obama must hold here)
South Carolina 39% 54% Sep 22 Sep 24 Research 2000(Nice job for Mac holding)
Virginia 50% 45% Sep 25 Sep 25 Rasmussen(Again, Mac must win in VA)
Wyoming 36% 57% Sep 22 Sep 24 Research 2000(Mac has won here)

[Flacolaco]

Yes....Keep interjecting your opinions next to facts without indicating as much. It is so endearing and necessary.

[Janett_Reno]

Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-45%.(Let me add that this poll will be updated later today and Obama has increased his lead with Gallup. It is either 6 or 8 points on the new Gallup to be released later today and includes Saturday).

Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to an Obama lead yesterday of 50%-45%.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±3.2% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead yesterday.


Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-43%.


Iowa 51% 43% Sep 25 Rasmussen(If Obama wins he needs to really be thankful to the state of Ia. For many reasons but Ia and Nm staying blue and him holding all Kerry states, gives him an addvantage that Mac hasn't had and helps him win by many differ states as where Mac has one way. This state was huge. Even NH at 4ev's is turning out to be a big player and it's up for grabs.
Louisiana 40% 55% Sep 25 Rasmussen(Nice win for Mac in LA)

Gallup Debate poll....

New USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows 46% of people who watched Friday night's presidential debate say Democrat Barack Obama did a better job than Republican John McCain; 34% said McCain did better.

Obama scored even better -- 52%-35% -- when debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The next big news will be Thursday night. It will be two great debaters facing off in Sarah Baracuda Palin and Joe Biden. This should be a good one.

[Janett_Reno]

It just came out and is indeed 8 point spread. That is if Gallup is anywhere close.

Barack Obama leads John McCain, 50% to 42% among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday -- just one point shy of his strongest showing of the year.

-------------------------------------------------------------

I say look for another hail mary by Mac this week. Something wild and bizarre again. They could play it safe and put it in the hand's of The Baracuda Thursday night. The big guns should come out in about two weeks. The Clintons.

[chumdawg]

It's not so much the 8-point spread. It's that if you are at 50, the opponent has to win some of your guys back.

[Janett_Reno]

This is true. Will be interesting to see the stradegy this week.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

This is true. Will be interesting to see the stradegy this week.

If they roll out a video of Sarah Palin walking on water, then yes, that would be interesting. Other than that, I don't know what they could do. Trade Palin for Romney? Yes, that would be interesting. Not going to happen, though.

What you are going to see this week is not "strategy." What you are going to see is the necessary end to the tactical maneuver McCain went in on.

It is not going to be pretty.

[Janett_Reno]

I agree with you. It's going to get negative and alot of jabs to see if they can get Obama and Biden to blow up.

[aquaadverse]

Originally Posted by Janett_Reno

I agree with you. It's going to get negative and alot of jabs to see if they can get Obama and Biden to blow up.

Biden will step on his genitalia. It's always been his nature. It doesn't require any prodding from the other side. The plus is, he's been around so long it doesn't have much shock value left.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by aquaadverse

Biden will step on his genitalia. It's always been his nature. It doesn't require any prodding from the other side. The plus is, he's been around so long it doesn't have much shock value left.

If you have paid attention to the Obama campaign, then you know that Biden isn't going to make a gaffe.

These guys are way too smart for that.

[aquaadverse]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

If you have paid attention to the Obama campaign, then you know that Biden isn't going to make a gaffe.

These guys are way too smart for that.

You're kidding right?

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/feb...nion/op-chait4

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/08...y4377062.shtml

http://corner.nationalreview.com/pos...NmZDc2Njc4YTY=

I've watched him for a couple of decades, now. Apparently you haven't. He's a Gaffe Machine, but as I said earlier everyone but you knows it so it's blunted a bit.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by aquaadverse

You're kidding right?

http://articles.latimes.com/2007/feb...nion/op-chait4

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/08...y4377062.shtml

http://corner.nationalreview.com/pos...NmZDc2Njc4YTY=

I've watched him for a couple of decades, now. Apparently you haven't. He's a Gaffe Machine, but as I said earlier everyone but you knows it so it's blunted a bit.

I think those are pretty benign examples you cited there. Those aren't the kind of gaffes I am talking about. I'm talking about stuff such as "rape is like the rain...you can't stop it so you may as well sit back and enjoy it."

If you think Biden is going to do something like that...well, then as I said, you aren't paying close enough attention to how seriously the Obama campaign is taking these events.

[Janett_Reno]

I think chum mentioned awhile back that it's Obama's to lose. I know someone in here said this and i agree. McCain got close and i agree it isn't over but Biden and Obama doesn't have to have any major shocking stories. They need to be consistent and picking Biden does help. He is mature to this and politics. Here again i feel this is where Palin hurts McCain.

Mac and the reps are going to have to turn out Oh and Fl and i mean day after day and if they do not see any spread in FL and OH, then they must live in those two states. They must secure and win those two and then they must pray they win those other 5 to 7 they need and sweep, even though Biden and Obama are making them stay in FL and OH. The dems aremaking the reps fight on to many fronts, to many states. If they can get some spread in FL and OH, then they can go other places but without either of those states, Mac loses.

It is a map, where you can pick and choose and look who wins. It was interesting because if Mac does really good sweeping thru most all the swing states, Obama holds what he is suppose to and i think if Obama wins Co and hardly nothing else, it would be like 269-269 tie and takes 270 to win. Mac must get on a roll to do this but it's possible and not sure what would happen if they tied.

Chum here would be a lil shake up this next week.

McCain camp prays for Palin wedding

The marriage of the vice-presidential candidate’s pregnant teenage daughter could lift a flagging campaign.

Here is the link to the story

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4837644.ece

---------------------------------------------------------

When results come in, the northeast states will come in first and the Mac camp will watch Pa, to see if they can turn Pa republican and no i do not see this happening but the state i am watching to put Obama up and hard to ever catch and if he wins this one, i predict he wins the election. Va. Dems are not suppose to win here but something has been happeing since Jim Webb beat Allen. It is many important states but this one should vote and us see sort of early in the night. I am also keeping a watch on NC.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

So it's Saturday evening in Fredricksburg, Virginia, and the rain has just started to fall.
How many people do you think are going to show up for Obama/Biden political rally? If you guessed 26,000....then you're right.

[Janett_Reno]

Some more out today...

FLORIDA (ABC News/Washington Post): McCain - 51%, Obama - 46%(This is good for McCain and helps ease some pressure if this poll is right, for now)
MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%(Good for Obama holding here better now)
MICHIGAN (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
MINNESOTA (Rasmussen): Obama - 52%, McCain - 44%(Good here also as Mac had trended up here some earlier).
NEVADA (Suffolk Univ.): McCain - 46%, Obama - 45%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 1%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire): McCain - 47%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%(Could be an important state and Mac is leading now).
NEW MEXICO (PPP-D): Obama - 53%, McCain - 42%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Civitas-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%(this is a state like Va, Mac can't lose).
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): McCain - 50%, Obama - 47%(Mac leading in this poll).
OHIO (ABC News/Washington Post): McCain - 50%, Obama - 46%(Mac leading a lil more here and very important for Mac to win FL & Oh).
PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 45%(Obama must win Pa).
PENNSYLVANIA (NBC News/Mason-Dixon): Obama - 46%, McCain - 44%.
VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): Obama - 51%, McCain - 45%, Others - 2%.
VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 50%, Obama - 48%.
VIRGINIA (ABC News/Washington Post): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Others - 0%.
VIRGINIA (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 46%, Others - 0%...

[chumdawg]

The Palin marriage is surely on tap for the next ploy. (My goodness, how far has McCain sank?)

It's not going to matter, though. Personally, I think this campaign is already over. Irrevocably, save for Obama doing something Clayton-Williams-stupid. I think it's going to be really, really over this Thursday night.

[Janett_Reno]

The Palin marriage, the Lettermen's and so many will jump all over this and make Mac a laughing stock.

[chumdawg]

Mac is already a laughing stock. Blinded right-wingers are still sticking to him, but that's about all.

[Janett_Reno]

Can you see Big Mac out on the trail next week, My Friends, we have two very fine young people getting married this week named Bristol and Levi. Two outstanding young Alaskonians. To secure our borders with Russia bordering Alaska, we have decided to have this wedding on Thursday night, where we can guard Alaska by the weekend.

Ms Baracuda will be busy Thursday night and my friends, i have taken it on myself to debate my long life time time friend Joe Biden, while my friend Sarah Baracuda attends the wedding.

I promise to look at Joe and do one heck of a bang up job as these two young love birds get married. Then as soon as Ms Baracuda gets back, we will put her on the trail of who is responsible for spending 3 million bucks on studying the dna of bears in Co. My friends, this is waisting tax payer dollars. The Maverick and Ms Baracuda are your friends in getting this money back in your piggy banks. We will get to the bottom of this my friends and it won't be any sleeping on the job as we keep the bears in Russia.

Do not worry my friends and you trust in the Maverick, the First Dude has his eyes wide open for any Russian bears comming across the bearing straits and if i hear one yell or scream from the first dude, you can bet the Maverick will ride up on his big red, white and blue snowmobile and kick those bears all the way across the sea. You can bet your bottom dollar my friends, it won't even be any tax dollars spent on the job either. Our snowmobiles do not run on petro but moose droppings, because that is just the way we roll up here, and especially when the Maverick is in town.

[Janett_Reno]

New polls out. Chuck Todd told on MSNBC of differ swing states and put Pa, FL and OH all for Big Mac and he did this just for showing the difficult ways that Mac has to win. Anyway, he gave Mac Pa, Fl and Oh and Big Mac could still lose. I feel Obama has a good shot at either FL or OH and i feel he will win PA. On the above where Todd mentions this, Obama would still have to win some states like Co, Nv, NC and Va. He said that Fl, Nv, Va and nc are growth states. People moving in them and younger people. We already know it is alot of seniors in FL and this might help Big Mac also. NC and Va just doesn't vote dem and In hasn't in many, many years and Obama is close even in IN. Alot of pressure on Baracuda Thursday night to try to get these polls swinging back to Big Mac....

I also check polls on Real Clear Politics(polls), a republican site.

The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 50%-46%, with a ±3% margin of error.

OH-Sep 30 InsiderAdvantage Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

OHIO (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 48%

VA-Sep 30 InsiderAdvantage Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 45%

PA-Sep 30 Muhlenberg Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 41%

AZ-Sep 30 Rasmussen McCain (R) 59%, Obama (D) 38%

IN-Sep 30 SurveyUSAMcCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%

FLORIDA (PPP-D) Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%

GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 52%, Obama - 44%, Others - 2%

It also had one in NJ where Obama was up about 10 points. Obama and his camp said GA could come into play. GA is a huge red state. Maybe they were just saying this awhile back to get Mac to spend more money here and i think Barr is from here. If Obama could cose here within 5 and make Mac start comming back to a full red state and spend money it would be good for the dems. Mac is trying to do the same to Obama in states like Pa, Mi, Mn. I feel Obama will win Mn, Pa and Mi and i also feel Big Mac will take Ga. Keep an eye out on this bail out plan and see if this comes into play any and with all this going on, the economy is out in front. The debates will be important, Vp and Pres both and all of them. I am not sure on Va and Nc if this is a one time deal on the dems hanging close or up in these red states. Co has closed alot also not being so red. I feel In is maybe a one time deal but i could be wrong that a dem is within 3 there. This state is a huge red state.

Fox News yesterday had Obama up 8 in Pa. McCain up 1 in OH, Tie in FL, Obama up 3 in Va, Up 1 in Co, ppp had Obama up 2 in Nc and Mac up 12 in TN with another survey group.

[Janett_Reno]

Come on Bill, let's hit the trail for Obama. I think he is suppose to start some tomorrow. Hillary has been but Bill needs to as well. I haven't heard anything on Gore and i wish Obama's staff would get Gore out on the trail. He could bring the votes in alot of these states. Bill will help in FL, OH, PA but also he needs to do it and get excited. Yes i know it is difficult because he wanted his wife so badly president but this is for the country and our future.

One reason they can't let Palin go on her own to much is because she might totally disagree with Big Mac on policy and she not even know it. Then the media gets it and runs with it. They do the same with a dem mistke of if Biden does the same. It is just that Palin does it almost anytime she speaks and when she is protected. Other day she went back to Katie but Daddy Mac was with her like a lawyer and only letting her answer some things. The reps had to know they had to have a vp they didn't have to muzzle or keep her out of the public. I believe this pick had to be worse than Gores, Joe McCain Libberman.

I know it is hard on Ms Baracuda because politics is rough and they watch every word and it isn't her fault but the ones that picked her and made her do this.

[chumdawg]

Keep an eye on the VA polls. If that state is even seriously in play, Mac is done.

[Janett_Reno]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Keep an eye on the VA polls. If that state is even seriously in play, Mac is done.

This is true and the turnouts they are having in Va is amazing. They need to hammer Va, Nc, Oh and FL. Co and Nv is important also but if he picks off Va or Nc right off, i think the race is over if he wins either one. It makes Big Mac have to win Pa then, plus hold FL and OH. Look how close FL and OH are now and again they say the dems heavy hitters are comming out in oh, fl, pa and mentioned nv in the last 2 or 3 weeks really trying to rally for Obama. Maybe Pa is getting safer and turning bluer all the time now or looks as if it is and where we don't have to play so much defense in Pa. Biden has been hanging out alot in Pa. Him and Hillary are from there.

All those northeast states will report first in the votes and i hope they can also get NH as the northeast could and should be a sweep if they can get nh and with nh, i feel very safe if either Va or Nc falls and i pick if either va or nc falls, no matter how nh goes, Big Mac is done. Those were two states, along with Indiana the reps was not suppose to worry about at all.

Roms would have put Mi, Mn and Wi in play and especially Mi and he could have had an influence in Pa and Oh.

Keep an eye on the map
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Notice now FL white and up for grabs. Look at Mo, 2 points difference. This is another Nc and Va.

Ever so often watch the state graphs, http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...raphs/all.html and you can see trends. Obama is set up good right now.

[chumdawg]

You are right that we will know a great deal at the first polls' closing. I figure that FL is going to go deep into the night just like it has in the last couple. Probably OH, too. But if Obama looks clearly ahead in MI and PA, and if VA is trending that way, it's probably safe to go ahead and hit the sack. NH would make the outcome a bit more likely--and NH is also a state that should be called fairly early--but in itself it won't say much of anything either way.

If FL and VA are both too close to call, then stay up, if you want, to watch CO and NV come in, but you should already know what the result will be.

Of course, this all assumes that Mac doesn't pull a rabbit out of his hat. It also assumes that a Dem runaway doesn't happen between now and then. If the first polls closing show Obama winning OH and VA, turn out the lights.

[Janett_Reno]

It makes me wonder if Jim Webb is real popular now since he beat Allen. Then Republican John Warner is retiring a senator spot and Democrat Mark Warner is very popular in the sate and is way ahead for the senate seat in Va. It looks as if some guys really liked in Va are Webb and Mark Warner that are democrats. I think John Warner was well liked also and he was republican.

I have never understood this but in the past, if people see someone winning, alot of people say i want to vote for the winner. Then some also think, well if Obama is winning and out in front, why should we even go vote out west? That is why it is good to get out front and in the northeast is where all the returns come in first.

I think Oh opened votting today for early votting and it was people that camped out ready to vote and it was huge lines. It was alot of young people in line votting. Fox news wanted it stopped saying you could not register someone and the same day let them vote and it not be flawed and mistakes. I flipped on Fox last night a few mins and they were rerunning anything bad they thought on Obama, really trying to spin. Like beware, be scarred, look at his ex preacher.

I think the people and voters have caught on to the scare tactic. It was even on some station of Palin and i think they said it was on Youtube also. It was a preacher and witchdoctor from Africa laying hands on her, preaching and him trying to bring the witches out. Some crazy thing and i was like, is this for real? I was like man this chick must have been way out there. It seems like if she gets on different guru's each month. I don't judge her on a witchdoctor laying hands on her or Obama's ex preacher but again it brings me back, did the republicans even know whom this woman was or even what she does believe in?

Keep an eye on this early votting in Oh and if these long lines are comming out to vote already. If he picks off Oh now, game over. I think we will know something early like you mentioned because i do feel Va will fall and NC is a possibility. You know we will probably have to wait on Oh and FL the untill the next day but maybe those won't even matter.