Steve Kerr: Mavs won't make the playoffs

[dirno2000]

Minnesota and San Antonio are the teams to beat in the Western Conference, and there's considerable dropoff from there. As many as nine teams have a realistic chance at the third-best record in the conference, which means several very good teams won't even make the playoffs.

The good news for the conference? No more Shaq to deal with!

Here's how the Western Conference lines up on paper:

(1) San Antonio Spurs Southwest Division Last season's record: 57-25
San Antonio
Roster
News The Spurs would have beaten the Lakers in the playoffs last year if they had made a few more jump shots, but they went cold at the wrong time and faded. That's why Brent Barry may have been the best free agent signing of the offseason. Barry is one of the best three-point shooters in the NBA, and he can play either guard spot, giving San Antonio great depth and versatility in the backcourt.

This team is terrific defensively, and will again rely on Tim Duncan to dominate games. Manu Ginobili is ready to become an all-star, and Tony Parker will get better and better. The Spurs are the team to beat.

(2) Minnesota Timberwolves Northwest Division Last season's record: 58-24
Minnesota
Roster
News The Wolves made a great playoff run a year ago, and they appear primed to take the next step and get to the finals. MVP Kevin Garnett finally received the help he needed from Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell, but both are a bit long in the tooth. Their health and scoring could be the key for this team, because everything else is in place.

The Wolves have a terrific bench, great chemistry, good shooters and an excellent defense. Kevin McHale deserves credit for patiently allowing this team to develop; the Wolves are mentally tough as a result. Along with San Antonio, Minnesota is a favorite to win the conference.

(3) Denver Nuggets Northwest Division Last season's record: 43-39
Denver
Roster
News How about the job general manager Kiki Vandeweghe has done? The Pepsi Center was empty two years ago, but the place was rocking by the end of last season and it will be even louder this year with the addition of Kenyon Martin.

Jeff Bzdelik's squad should be improved, as Carmelo Anthony has a year under his belt and Andre Miller feels more comfortable in his second year running the club. The Nuggets snuck up on the league and really overachieved a year ago, and they'll have to deal with higher expectations this season. Their great depth should help them to improve and again make the playoffs.

(4) Utah Jazz Northwest Division Last season's record: 42-40
Utah
Roster
News A year ago I looked at the Jazz roster and predicted 25 wins. I should have realized that with Jerry Sloan at the helm, that just wasn't going to happen. Sloan has established a foundation so strong in Salt Lake City that even the departures of John Stockton and Karl Malone didn't faze him.

This season, with the free agent signings of Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur and the drafting of Kirk Snyder, the Jazz have some talent to help Andrei Kirilenko. And with emerging point guard Carlos Arroyo gaining confidence with his terrific Olympics showing, Utah should be back in the playoffs.

(5) Houston Rockets Southwest Division Last season's record: 45-37
Houston
Roster
News With Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, the Rockets have maybe the best one-two combination in the NBA. But who will run the ship?

Charlie Ward will be reunited with Jeff Van Gundy, but his best days are behind him. Ward will probably share minutes with Tyronn Lue at the point, and Bobby Sura will help too. Lost in the McGrady trade was the addition of Juwan Howard, who is ideally suited to be the third scorer Houston will need behind its Big Two.

Van Gundy will slow the pace down so as not to wear out Yao in defensive transition, and as athletic as McGrady is, he has always preferred a half-court pace anyway. Van Gundy will feel much more comfortable with this club than last year's Rockets and they'll be a tough out in the playoffs.

(6) Memphis Grizzlies Southwest Division Last season's record: 50-32
Memphis
Roster
News A year ago, Hubie Brown's squad beat teams with its depth and defense. Brian Cardinal adds shooting and effort to an already potent bench, but the key to this team reaching another level will be the continued development of Pau Gasol.

For Memphis to become a great team, Gasol has to become what Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett are for their respective teams: dominant, dynamic and tough. Gasol is young and still developing, and appears ready to take that next step. He was fantastic for his native Spain in the Olympics, and this could be a breakout season for him.

(7) Los Angeles Lakers Pacific Division Last season's record: 56-26
Los Angeles
Roster
News Well, Kobe has always wanted the Lakers to be his team, and now that Shaq is gone they are. But as the old saying goes, be careful what you wish for.

The Hollywood crowd will barely recognize this club as Rudy Tomjanovich brings in a new cast of characters and a new offense to L.A. Gone is Phil Jackson's 'share the wealth' triangle. Rudy T will give the ball to Kobe 50 times a night and he'll win the scoring title.

The question is, can the Lakers defend well enough to win at a high level? Lamar Odom will complement Kobe well as a distributor, and Vlade Divac returns to L.A. and will man the high post as the best passing center in the league. The Lakers will be fun to watch and have a chance to be good, but it may take some time.

(8) Phoenix Suns Pacific Division Last season's record: 29-53
Phoenix
Roster
News The Suns look a lot like Dallas and Sacramento from the past few seasons: explosive perimeter talent, a coach who likes to play small ball and not a lot of beef inside. It remains to be seen whether Phoenix can shoot as well as the Kings and Mavs, which is what made those two teams so tough to defend.

Steve Nash will lead the attack, and he'll be a great addition to a team in need of leadership. Joe Johnson, Quentin Richardson and Shawn Marion are quick, athletic and versatile. Look for coach Mike D'Antoni to employ them together in a switching, attacking defense.

But the key to this club over the next two years is Amare Stoudemire. The third-year pro is as explosive as any big man in the NBA, but he's very raw and has a long way to go to develop into a dominant big man. If he does, Phoenix could challenge for the Pacific Division title.

(9) Dallas Mavericks Southwest Division Last season's record: 52-30
Dallas
Roster
News Dirk Nowitzki remains the star for Dallas, but the roster turnover the past couple of seasons has been alarming. Erik Dampier is the latest newcomer after the failed experiments with Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison a year ago.

Don Nelson will be glad to have Dampier's defense and rebounding, but he'll have to figure out a way to fit him into the up-tempo offensive style Nellie enjoys.

The Mavs sustained a huge loss when Steve Nash decided to sign with Phoenix, but Mark Cuban's club quickly replaced him by trading for Jason Terry and drafting Devin Harris from Wisconsin.

(10) Sacramento Kings Pacific Division Last season's record: 55-27
Sacramento
Roster
News The Kings could be in for a big fall this season. They lost Divac and have some chemistry issues. Predrag Stojakovic took offense to Chris Webber's comments regarding his playoff shooting woes after the Kings lost to Minnesota. Divac – the leader of this team the past few years – won't be there to soothe the wounds.

As for Webber, he can no longer elevate off of his injured knee, and his game has suffered as a result. Mike Bibby is a great shooter and terrific player, and Bobby Jackson provides instant offense off the bench. Brad Miller had a great season in his first year as a King, and young Darius Songaila will emerge as Miller's backup.

The Kings will still be explosive and fun to watch, but they appear to be losing their mojo. And bad defense and no mojo is not a good combination.

(11) Portland Trail Blazers Northwest Division Last season's record: 41-41
Portland
Roster
News The Blazers will be under the radar this year, but they still have some talent and could be a factor in the West.

Zach Randolph is now the centerpiece of this team, and while his numbers are very good, he needs to take the next step and be a better defender and leader. It's very difficult to dominate games as a small power forward, but the Blazers are counting on Randolph to do it.

The trade of Dale Davis for Nick Van Exel gives Portland more firepower but exposes them in the middle defensively. Theo Ratliff will need to have a big year for this team to compete for a playoff spot.

(12) Los Angeles Clippers Pacific Division Last season's record: 28-54
Los Angeles
Roster
News Can the Clips ever get it right? As usual, L.A. has some talent. Elton Brand and Corey Maggette are two dynamic forwards who compliment each other pretty well. But high school phenom Shaun Livingston surely isn't ready to step in and lead this team to the playoffs. It looks like another season of looking toward L.A.'s future – but will it ever arrive?

(13) New Orleans Hornets Southwest Division Last season's record: 41-41
New Orleans
Roster
News The Hornets aren't really happy about moving into the Western Conference, and they'll have to make the best of it without their 20-point scorer Jamal Mashburn, who will miss the entire season with a knee injury that threatens to end his career.

Jamaal Magloire and P.J. Brown anchor a solid defense, but New Orleans desperately needs scoring and athleticism to aid Baron Davis. He's asked to carry too much of the load offensively, and without Mashburn, this team will struggle to make the playoffs in such a strong conference.

(14) Golden State Warriors Pacific Division Last season's record: 37-45
Golden State
Roster
News Mike Montgomery moves across the Bay to take on a more daunting rebuilding task than the one he inherited at Stanford. College coaches do not have a great recent track record in the NBA, and Montgomery's is not likely to improve upon it given the team he has inherited.

There are no real stars around whom to build, so he'll try to get this team to defend and play hard. Jason Richardson is still blossoming, and rookie Andris Biedrins is well-liked by a lot of scouts. The signing of Derek Fisher will help in terms of leadership, and he's certainly made a ton of big shots in his career. But how many big shots will be available for a team unlikely to win more than 30 games?

(15) Seattle SuperSonics Northwest Division Last season's record: 37-45
Seattle
Roster
News It's tough to envision this club doing much of anything this season. Ray Allen is probably the best shooter in the NBA, and Rashard Lewis is one of the better offensive small forwards in the game. But the Sonics have no post presence, and are underwhelming on defense.

Nick Collison returns after missing his entire rookie season, but it's unrealistic to think he will make a huge difference in his first year of action The Sonics are on the bottom looking up at the rest of the Western Conference.

[EricaLubarsky]

somehow being a favorite to beat Sacramento isn't very satisfying.

Kerr shouldn't let his allegiances show. Thats all Im saying.

Holy crap, Dirno. six copies of this drivel? Are you trying to say something? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

Man, I hate sextuple posts. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[sike]

(4) Utah Jazz Northwest Division Last season's record: 42-40

come on...

[dirno2000]

Sorry mods, I felt strongly about this article [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[Murphy3]

Am I the only one that isn't quite as impressed with Carmelo Anthony as Steve Kerr is? Will he be a guy that struggles to shoot a decent percentage year in and year out much like Mash? Is he just another 20-25 PPG player that takes 20 shots to reach that average?

[grndmstr_c]

I had no idea Kerr was this stupid. But now, thanks to Dirno's 37 new threads, no one will ever again be caught unawares. Thanks, Dirno[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I won't comment on his underrating of the Mavs. But am I the only one who thinks the media hype on Denver is getting a bit out of hand? And as much as I hate to admit it, Sac deserves stronger consideration than what they're getting. Health is going to continue to be a question mark with that team, but they've still got plenty of starting talent and their first 3 guys off the bench are solid at the least. If they're healthy they can go 8 deep and be a handful for even the best teams.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
I had no idea Kerr was this stupid. But now, thanks to Dirno's 37 new threads, no one will ever again be caught unawares. Thanks, Dirno[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I won't comment on his underrating of the Mavs. But am I the only one who thinks the media hype on Denver is getting a bit out of hand? And as much as I hate to admit it, Sac deserves stronger consideration than what they're getting. Health is going to continue to be a question mark with that team, but they've still got plenty of starting talent and their first 3 guys off the bench are solid at the least. If they're healthy they can go 8 deep and be a handful for even the best teams.

I'd put Mavs between 2 and 7. The 9th spot will win about 40 games this year, and I cant see them losing 12 more games then they did last year when they couldnt win a single away game. I'm so confident that they'll make the playoffs, I'd bet triple digit cash.

Sac no higher than 5, no lower than 8

Denver no higher than 4. Way overrated at 3. Unbelievably so.

Utah will be better than them this year as well.

Rockets are volatile like the Mavs. They could be 1-9. We had about as much turnover, but we kept our number one man.

I agree with the Grizzlies spot, and they will be dangerous.

Phoenix is going to do better than last year, but not as well as 2001-2002. Nash will burn out and will have a significant injury this year. Q-Rich will be their Antoine Walker and Joe Johnson won't be given enough time or room.

[FilthyFinMavs]

This thread deserved all 27 dirno made. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]


I've never liked Kerr. This guy has been ragging on the Mavs since he killed us in the playoffs 2 years ago. You would htink he'd be a bit nicer towards us. First off, how do you not only leave the Kings out but the Mavs also? Spurs are the best team in the league. They deserve that title however that is it when it comes to teams better than the Mavs. I'm well aware this team is going to struggle with all the new players but what in the hell have the other teams in the West done? The T-Wolves are just one year old and besides the Spurs everyone has a new makeover. It's fine to think the Mavs won't be as good as they were in previous years but you can't have it one way and not the other. You can say the Mavs will struggle because of the turnover over the offseason but still think teams like the Jazz, Suns, Lakers, Nuggets and Rockets will be better than us when they've done just as much upgrading as we have. Kerr gets the [img]i/expressions/thumbsdown.gif[/img] for this crap and I also get the [img]i/expressions/thumbsdown.gif[/img] for reading it.

[dirk2003]

This is so stupid. Kerr looks like a big moron now.

Dallas will make the playoffs EASILY and so will the kings. I mean the Kings are the kings before playoffs, they always play well in the season.

kerr suck the big one

[madape]

I think it's time for Mavs fans to face reality; this team is going to struggle next year. The competition is tougher. Our talent is less. The turnover is massive. Our coach, who assembled this team from the ground up, has had the controls yanked away from him and has been kicked halfway out the door by his owner. I'll be pulling for this team, but I think it's a coin flip whether they get into the playoffs at all next year. I've been a Mavericks fan almost my whole life, and I can't remember a time when I've been so low on the team. I can see the writing on the wall, and the writing doesn't say "championship contender".

[Murphy3]

Yes, the competition could be tougher but many teams have had major roster turnover. It's also likely that Sacramento and the Lakers will take steps back this year. Yes, the Mavs have had some roster turnover, but this roster turnover makes much more sense than last seasons and they were still able to patch that up to roll off a 50+ win season. I can't see this team being worse than last year by any stretch of the imagination. Perhaps they might post just about the same record, but I don't see the logic in thinking that this team will do anything other than improve upon last year's team. The Mavs should easily be heads and tails better defensively. On offense, there's a decent chance that they might finally decide to let Dirk be the go to guy. Beyond that, they have a number of players that are capable of slicing to the bucket and getting to the line with Stack and Daniels. They also should still have some decent outside shooting with Terry, Dirk and Fin. I'm just not sure how anyone can justify believing that this team will be worse than last year. It makes little to no sense.

[TripleDipping]

I always liked Steve Kerr, but.......

The addition of Boozer and Okur will catapult Utah to 4th?
Laker's, with their roster pretty much bombed out, got a new coach and they're better than the Kings and Mavs?

I guess in his mind, Mavs players won't develop, new players won't fit in the system and the coaches are idiots. That is one of the most idiotic pieces of English literature I've read.

[seal614]

lol once I saw L.A. in the playoffs I disregarded the rest of his b.s.

LAKERS ARE GOING TO SUCK -> see boston (PP) and Orlando (TMac)... and no Kobe is NOT the 2nd coming of MJ so he will not take his team any further than these guys can/could by themselves.

Kobe '04-'05
30ppg
6rpg
6apg
38% shooting - nuff said

[Phil Helmuth]

As a betting man, with even odds, I would bet every dollar I had on the mavs making the playoffs.

[The Hammer]

I must agree with Seal re: the Fakers. There's just no way that the new-look Kobe Lakers are better than the Mavs and Kings.
Utah will be dangerous, but they won't catch anybody by surprise this year.
Not quite sure about the Nuggets (again, no sneaking up on folks), the Grizzlies (same deal), the Rockets (can T-Mac coexist with Yao, and can both stay healthy?).
Bottom line: Kerr stated that it'll be tough to sort out "the rest" and he's right.
Unfortunately, we're part of "the rest" unless and until we can prove otherwise on the court. I love our balance, but it will take time to make this team gel.

[endtroducing]

to even suggest that this team won't make the playoffs is incredibly stupid...

[Big Lo]

how in the wide wide world of crap did our talent drop? we finally have a center or 2. maybe 3 or 4. minus one soon to be injury prone pg, minus one sad sack of drivel in walker, and a putback machine, and we sunk to the bottom of the playoff rsvp?

1.san antonio
2.minnesota
3.dallas
4.sacramento
5.houston
6.memphis
7.denver
8.utah

[endtroducing]

bradley's not starting, we got the biggest piece of crap in the NBA, and we lost our all-time greatest point guard ever in nash. or so madape would say.

[chumdawg]

I like to look at futures odds to see what the people think who are putting their money where their mouths are. The odds from the World Sports Exchange, updated just yesterday, to win the 2005 NBA championship:

3/1 - Spurs
4/1 - Tpups
5/1 - Kings
8/1 - Mavs
10/1 - Rockets
15/1 - Lakers
25/1 - Nuggets
40/1 - Suns
50/1 - Grizz
60/1 - Jazz

[Big Lo]

bradley shouldnt be starting, we lost a decent pg that was getting on in age and will burn out. and who is the worst pice of crap? we lost walker so it must be bradley.

[Big Lo]

good odds.

[endtroducing]

well, according to madape, that would have to be sir erick dampier.

[DubOverdose]

I've said it before, and will say it again: Carmelo Anthony=Antoine Walker
Look at Walker's rookie stats and compare them to Melo's. Melo scored a few more ppg, but they are pretty similar. Melo is worse than Walker though. He's already a locker room cancer causing big problems especially in public. Come on, the Olympic team wanted to send him home. There's no way the Nuggz will be that good this season.

[cheesestar]

how is memphis on there but dallas not...kurr is a joke

[LordOfTheMavs]

The dude is a Mavs hater. What did you expect???

Have you ever heard him call a Mavs game. I have actually heard him laughing out loud on the air during a broadcast about how bad the Mavs are. Just chuckling it up and having a good time ragging the crap out of the Mavs. It is very obvious to me that he has a major hate bias towards the Mavs.

I'm not at all surprised.

[Murphy3]

I can see where he's coming from with placing each of the above listed teams ahead of Dallas. However, I believe that Kerr is assuming worst case scenario for the Mavs whereas he is not doing so for many other teams.

[seal614]

Melo has a bad of tricks bigger than most players in the L. Don't underrate him. The nuggets upgraded bigtime BUT they had already made the playoffs so it's not like they're going to "oust" somebody from their spot.

Lakers are OUT, we have 1 more spot than last year and maybe 2 teams that could grab it (Memphis/Utah, and they will fight hard but only 1 is making it) Everything else will remain the same with some small seeding adjustments.

The loss of Nash might hurt Dallas this year, but beyond that the decision will look better and better. Regardless the Mavs are going to the playoffs. Hell, as of right now the Mavs have a better chance than the Kings, look at that team falling apart.

- Brian

[Murphy3]

Don't underrate him? Perhaps you should just tap the breaks a bit on 'melo. He does have a bag with alot of tricks in it, but the bag doesn't include a consistent jumper or consistent solid decision making.

[Bookit]

How is Phoenix all of the sudden ahead of the Mavs? Nash's best years were in a Mavs uni. Phoenix will fall below Dallas in the standings IMO.

Edit: I forgot that Kerr is part owner of the suns. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-confused.gif[/img]

[DCowboysGal]

I think MIN might take a slight step back because of the age of their key players aside from K. Garnett, ie. Cassell and Sprewell. Plus, Nesterovic has plateaued and isn't the complementary do-the-dirty-work-type-C K. Garnett needs. He does a lot of things OK, but isn't really a standout in any one aspect.

DEN has a potentially dominating frontcourt with a C/PF rotation of Camby, K. Martin, and Nene. It's a young, fast, and athletic team overall. Young teams generally might not be that great on defense, but with that frontcourt rotation, post defense shouldn't be an issue at least.

MEM I think will just miss the playoffs because like DAL last year, they won't be particularly good defensively at C. Stromile Swift, Pau Gasol, and Lorenzen Wright are all better suited both in build and game to play PF rather than C. Swift has great upside though as I think he could be a Jermaine O'Neal-in-waiting, a guy who just needs full-time minutes at PF to show that he could be a dominating player defensively. Swift of course still needs to work on developing a jump shot but it took O'Neal years to do that too.

I like the way Utah reloaded with young players, and the fact that they got a true PF in Boozer enabling Kirilenko to return to SF, his best position. Okur is a good shooter at C who could draw opposing C's out of the key, clearing space for Boozer and Kirilenko to get in there for rebounds and putbacks.

PHO is young and athletic and will be great on the fast break, but like last year they'll give up some points and be questionable on defense, especially at PG with the trying-hard-can't-overcome-short-arms-and-limited-agility S. Nash. Plus, wing players Q. Rich and J. Johnson seem a little lackadaiscal when playing man defense. I think S. Marion will lead all SF's in rebounding and steals and I can't really believe that they would try to trade him. He's one of the best SF's in the league in my opinion.

I just think virtually every team in the West, except perhaps GS and SEA, have the ability to reach the playoffs/hit 50+wins. Every team seems to have at least 2-3 solid core players, even SEA with R. Allen and R. Lewis. It's really too close to call maybe.

[Nash13]

Edit: I forgot that Kerr is part owner of the suns.

Bingo!

[capitalcity]

an analogy ---- TNT: Mavericks //// CBS: Republicans

Kerr has been listening to Barkley too long, the bias is showing thru. Of course he'd pick the friggin suns before the mavs - but we will be better than utah, houston and los angeles FOR SURE

san antonio
minney
denver
dallas
sac
lakers
houston
memphis

utah

[Male30Dan]

Originally posted by: DCowboysGal
Plus, Nesterovic has plateaued and isn't the complementary do-the-dirty-work-type-C K. Garnett needs. He does a lot of things OK, but isn't really a standout in any one aspect.

I think you meant the Kandi man... Nesterovic is with San Antonio!

[EricaLubarsky]

Nesterovic is with San Antonio!

unless we are talking 1998-1999 through 2002-2003

[DCowboysGal]

Originally posted by: Male23Dan

I think you meant the Kandi man... Nesterovic is with San Antonio!

Eeep, sorry I did mean Olowokandi [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif[/img]. He's not horrible by any means, but he's average across the board. Anyways, thanks for the correction!

[Psychedelic Fuzz]

just when I thought the national media couldn't sink any lower.

I can see a logical argument for placing Denver and Houston over the mavs, but LA, Utah and Phoenix? I could bang my head on the keyboard repeatedly and come up with something more insightful than this garbage.

[The Miles]

Horrible rankings.

[mediocre_life]

what an idiot he chose utah at 5 while sacto is at 10 and mavs at 9

[DubOverdose]

I might be able to understand this ranking if the Mavs lost Dirk for nothing in return.

[Evilmav2]

These rankings are fit to be printed out, cut into handy sheets, and used as toilet paper.

There is no way in hell that Dallas will fall lower than the sixth seed in the West this year, and if I were a betting man, I would wager that we will probably finish in the top 4. Kerr has always reflected a dislike of Dallas (and Sacramento, for that matter) in his columns, and that bias shows in these rankings.