The Short Supply of Competitive Balance (NY Times)

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The Short Supply of Competitive Balance
By DAVID J. BERRI
Published: May 6, 2007

Last Thursday the Golden State Warriors eliminated the Dallas Mavericks. That was a shock, since it was the first time since the N.B.A. went to a best-of-seven format in the first round of the playoffs that the lowest- seeded team in a conference defeated the top seed.

The significance of this event moves beyond the monumental nature of the upset. In finishing the season with the N.B.A.’s best record, the Mavericks were regarded as the favorite to win the championship. And had that happened, they would have joined a surprisingly small fraternity of teams that have actually won an N.B.A. title.

Of the 30 current N.B.A. teams, 14 have never won a championship. Five franchises — Celtics, Lakers, Bulls, Pistons and Spurs — have won 70 percent of all titles. Although the Celtics and the Lakers were not serious contenders this season, with the defeat of the Mavericks, there is a better chance that the Bulls, the Pistons or the Spurs will once again be crowned champions.

This pattern, in which the same franchises keep taking the league’s top prize, is not seen in other sports. In the past 20 years, 11 different N.H.L. teams have hoisted the Stanley Cup. In the N.F.L., 12 different teams have won the Super Bowl. And in baseball, the league in which competitive balance is perpetually thought to be a problem, 14 different teams have won the World Series in the past two decades.

Across the same time frame, though, only six teams — Bulls, Heat, Lakers, Pistons, Rockets and Spurs — have taken the N.B.A. title. Of these six, only the Heat failed to win multiple crowns.

The N.B.A. apparently has a significant problem with competitive balance. Year after year, the same teams compete for the title. And when we look at the distribution of victories in a given season in the four major North American sports leagues, we observe a much greater difference between the best and the worst in the N.B.A.

Why does the N.B.A. have such a problem with competitive balance? The answer lies in the short supply of tall people.

The average American man is 5 feet 10 inches. The average N.B.A. player, though, is 6-7, and nearly a third are 6-10 or taller. This height requirement poses a significant problem for the league. Only 2 percent of adult men are taller than 6-3 and a tiny number are at least 6-10.

Why is this a problem? The population of athletes the N.B.A. draws upon is quite small.

As the evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould observed, when a population is relatively small, the difference between the very best and the average athlete will be quite large. In other words, when your population of athletes is small, your league will have less competitive balance.

The very best in basketball in recent years included Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Michael Jordan. Teams that employed these talents tended to go far. Other teams, though, have been led by less-talented players. The Warriors demonstrated that occasionally a team made up of the less talented can prevail. This was such a surprise, though, because so often this is not what we observe.

The level of competitive balance we see in the N.B.A. was also once seen in Major League Baseball. In the first half of the 20th century, baseball was played only by white Americans from the eastern United States.

Given a relatively small population, the difference between the great and not so great was quite large. Consequently, the Yankees frequently ended the season as World Series champions. As time went by, though, baseball integrated and began employing more and more foreign talent. Consequently, the supply of great players increased and competitive balance improved.

In the N.B.A., teams have increasingly turned to foreign players. But even in the world, the supply of talented big people is still quite small. Hence, it is not clear that basketball will ever have the level of competitive balance we observe in baseball today.

Is this important to the league? The N.B.A. has set attendance records for three consecutive seasons. If fans truly cared about competitive balance, they have a funny way of showing it.

Still, for those who want variety in their champions, it’s time to root for the Suns. Phoenix has the best chance to win a title for the first time.

But the Suns first have to get past Tim Duncan and the Spurs, who are seeking their fourth title in the past nine seasons. Nevertheless, if competitive balance is your thing, it’s time to say “Go Suns.”

David J. Berri, an economist at California State University-Bakersfield, is a co-author of “The Wages of Wins.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/06/sp...b82deb&ei=5070

[DOMINATOR]

talk about reaching. argument didnt make much sense. basketball is a tall mans sport get over it. hate the game not the playa.