EDITORIAL: About that 'R'

[Janett_Reno]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/.../about-that-r/

How big of a Democratic gain will occur in the Senate come November? We know that this is the right question to ask in a year of a spirited Democratic primary, much enthusiasm in the party of Jackson and lopsided Senate terrain. Twenty-three Republican-held Senate seats are up for grabs, of which five are incumbent retirements, compared to just 12 Democratic seats and no Democratic retirements. Enthusiasm plus tilted terrain equals big problems for Republicans.

Here's Sen. John Ensign's cringe-inducer on the subject three weeks ago: "If you have an R in front of your name, you better run scared." Mr. Ensign, the Nevada Republican who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, counts among his chief duties rallying the Republican troops. Mission not accomplished.

The Cook Political Report figures upon a 5-7 seat handover. The University of Virginia's Crystal Ball opines that "it will be a major surprise if Democrats fail to add at least three or four seats." It is still awfully early, but many handicappers are already chalking Sen. John Sununu's New Hampshire seat and the retiring John Warner's Virginia seat for the Democratic column - with reason. Sen. Pete Domenici's New Mexico seat, Gordon Smith's in Oregon, Wayne Allard's in Colorado and Norm Coleman's in Minnesota round out the "most vulnerable" list.

There are also a handful of wildcards. Incredibly, the seat of Sen. Ted Stevens, Alaska Republican, is very much in play owing to a hovering ethics cloud. First-term Sen. Roger Wicker's is chalked into competitive territory on account of high expected Democratic turnout in what is normally a lopsidedly Republican state. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina also occupy potentially vulnerable territory. There is even occasional rumbling over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's seat and the retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel's .

Behind the scenes, Republicans tell each other that they can live with the Cook Report's 5-7 scenario, since even a seven-seat Senate loss only brings Democrats to a 58-seat caucus. They also wonder whether Sen. Joe Lieberman, Connecticut independent and famous Democratic dissenter, may be lured out of the fold completely, alleviating the impact. This, at least, sounds a lot better than top party chieftains who advise their charges to "run scared."

[Usually Lurkin]

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