Do the Mavs make the playoffs? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Underdog · 03-31-2016, 01:10 PM

@mavsmoneyball: 3 ways the Mavericks can make the playoffs and 2 ways they won't http://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2016/3/...rs-seeding-nba

@mavsmoneyball: The Mavs' easiest path to the playoffs:
- Mavs beat Jazz on April 11
- Mavs win 2 more games (out of 6)
- Jazz go 3-3 in non-Mavs game

@bobbykaralla:Aggregate h2h records of Memphis, Portland, Utah, and Dallas by win %:
DAL: 6-5
POR: 8-7
HOU: 8-7
Utah: 6-7
MEM: 6-8

‏@bobbykaralla: Mavs still play Houston and Memphis once more at home, and Utah once on the road. So that record will change a lot one way or the other.

@bobbykaralla: Dallas going 2-1 in those games would clinch the win % tiebreaker, for what it's worth at this point, regardless of whom Mavs lose against.

@bobbykaralla: This might actually end up happening, so it's worth looking at. Tiebreaker scenarios when 3+ teams are tied.

sefant77 · 03-31-2016, 02:52 PM

I say the Jazz game is the do or die game

MavzMan · 03-31-2016, 04:18 PM

If we don't make the playoffs, I would guess we end up 13th in the 14 lottery teams. This would give us 0.6% chance to get in the top 3, otherwise our pick goes to Boston.

yahyes · 03-31-2016, 05:55 PM

5 seed is up for grabs. Mavs can start their playoff mindset getting a win streak going into playoffs. Either way the team needs a win streak to get in. Win and loss, win and loss sounds way too tricky. But let's see how Deron can recover.

yahyes · 03-31-2016, 08:30 PM

So houston lost tonight. That makes the game against detroit a good opportunity to make it one extra step up into clinching a spot.

EricaLubarsky · 03-31-2016, 08:54 PM

Thanks, Chicago

Cerberus · 03-31-2016, 09:14 PM

Wait..how did we jump to 7th after the Houston loss? We were the same record as the Jazz and now we are ahead?

Underdog · 03-31-2016, 09:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cerberus

Wait..how did we jump to 7th after the Houston loss? We were the same record as the Jazz and now we are ahead?

We were in a 3-way tie with Utah and Houston before the Bulls beat the Rockets (we did not have the tie-breaker)... Now we're in a 2-way tie with Utah, and Houston is half a game behind.

Cerberus · 03-31-2016, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

We were in a 3-way tie with Utah and Houston before the Bulls beat the Rockets (we did not have the tie-breaker)... Now we're in a 2-way tie with Utah, and Houston is half a game behind.

Ah I see. Didn't take into consideration of Jazz division standings too. Cheers

Melonhead · 03-31-2016, 10:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

5 seed is up for grabs. Mavs can start their playoff mindset getting a win streak going into playoffs. Either way the team needs a win streak to get in. Win and loss, win and loss sounds way too tricky. But let's see how Deron can recover.

Those are some mavs colored classes you are wearing. Mavs have to scrap to beat the knicks @ home without Porzingis and the Nuggets. The talent just isnt there this season.

Melonhead · 03-31-2016, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

We were in a 3-way tie with Utah and Houston before the Bulls beat the Rockets (we did not have the tie-breaker)... Now we're in a 2-way tie with Utah, and Houston is half a game behind.

Wow I stopped watching in the 4th. Thought for sure Rockets would put it away. Oh well

TheSportyChannel · 04-01-2016, 12:27 AM

Blazers 40-36
Mavs - 37-38
Jazz 37-38
Rockets 37-39

Thought Jazz had the tiebreaker over the mavs but oh well. Wish we could get the 6th or 8th cause Spurs would obliterate us.

BigDog63 · 04-01-2016, 01:08 AM

I think the Mavs will pull it out.

I also think it makes little difference. Warriors and Spurs in WCF. Mavs should pay attention to how both of those teams got the teams that will get them there.

Underdog · 04-01-2016, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDog63

I think the Mavs will pull it out.

I also think it makes little difference. Warriors and Spurs in WCF. Mavs should pay attention to how both of those teams got the teams that will get them there.

You mean, pull it out and put it on the table... The only question we need to answer between now and the playoffs is whether we want to embarrass OKC, SA, or GS in the first round.

Bryan_Wilson · 04-01-2016, 02:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

The only question we need to answer between now and the playoffs is whether we want to embarrass OKC, SA, or GS in the first round.

A matching Curry hole in the wall next to Dirk's inside oracle would look good.

Underdog · 04-01-2016, 02:59 AM

@MFollowill: One thing known in Mavs playoff picture now. Houston will own tiebreaker in 2-way tie w/ Mavs. Best Mavs can do vs Houston in H2H is 2-2 & be tied in division record. Rockets in event of tie w/ Mavs are assured of better conf record

yahyes · 04-01-2016, 08:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Those are some mavs colored classes you are wearing. Mavs have to scrap to beat the knicks @ home without Porzingis and the Nuggets. The talent just isnt there this season.

Nah. Them getting into the playoffs is not looking through rose color glasses. Not like I'm saying we're contenders. Clinching a spot is talent enough.

Melonhead · 04-01-2016, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

@MFollowill: One thing known in Mavs playoff picture now. Houston will own tiebreaker in 2-way tie w/ Mavs. Best Mavs can do vs Houston in H2H is 2-2 & be tied in division record. Rockets in event of tie w/ Mavs are assured of better conf record

That sucks. Still have to beat them because it's a whole game of separation.

BigDog63 · 04-01-2016, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

You mean, pull it out and put it on the table... The only question we need to answer between now and the playoffs is whether we want to embarrass OKC, SA, or GS in the first round.

GS would be sweet revenge, would it not?

And, yes, best to answer it before the playoffs actually start. :-)

Jack.Kerr · 04-01-2016, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

We were in a 3-way tie with Utah and Houston before the Bulls beat the Rockets (we did not have the tie-breaker)... Now we're in a 2-way tie with Utah, and Houston is half a game behind.

So the Mavs are on bottom in a threesome, and on top in a twosome?

The calculus is mind-boggling.

Underdog · 04-01-2016, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jack.Kerr

So the Mavs are on bottom in a threesome, and on top in a twosome?

The calculus is mind-boggling.

Yeah, I keep looking at the standings and tie-breakers, but I can't figure out how we leapfrogged over Utah when Houston lost to the Bulls. Neither Dallas nor Utah are division leaders, we're tied 1-1 in H2H, and Utah has a better division record, which should make them 7th and the Mavs should be 8th... But that's not what the standings say.

yahyes · 04-01-2016, 04:17 PM

I don't think it's time to play Deron tonight or against Minnesota next game.

MavzMan · 04-01-2016, 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

I don't think it's time to play Deron tonight or against Minnesota next game.

JJB will be motivated to play against Minnesota, but then JJB has been motivated anyway the last several games.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDog63

GS would be sweet revenge, would it not?

And, yes, best to answer it before the playoffs actually start. :-)

mavErika · 04-01-2016, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Underdog

Yeah, I keep looking at the standings and tie-breakers, but I can't figure out how we leapfrogged over Utah when Houston lost to the Bulls. Neither Dallas nor Utah are division leaders, we're tied 1-1 in H2H, and Utah has a better division record, which should make them 7th and the Mavs should be 8th... But that's not what the standings say.

Since they are in different divisions the conference record should be the tiebreaker in play.

mavErika · 04-01-2016, 10:07 PM

Any guesses what Memphis' record will be over their last six?

It's
Memphis: @ORL, CHI, @DAL, GS, @LAC, @GS and they've lost 5 straight.

They are three games ahead of us and I believe we have the tiebreaker already.

Underdog · 04-02-2016, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavErika

Since they are in different divisions the conference record should be the tiebreaker in play.

Ohhh, fuuuuuudge... Division record only matters if you're in the same division. Obvious. Overlooked.

Still doesn't explain why we jumped 2 places when Houston lost though. Or was ESPN late to update their standings from Utah's loss to GS the night before? (at least as it pertained to tie-breakers...)

Melonhead · 04-03-2016, 05:46 PM

Houston finishes 41-41 or 42-40
Same with Jazz

Mavs have to win 2 of 5 remaining games and one of them must be Jazz. Hopefully last game of the season the spurs chuck the game and sit everyone.

Cerberus · 04-03-2016, 08:02 PM

Wow! Woke up to the results and find out all three of Mavs, Rockets and Jazz win. Memphis also losing, while Portland playing Warriors. This is extremely tight.

Melonhead · 04-03-2016, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavErika

Any guesses what Memphis' record will be over their last six?

It's
Memphis: @ORL, CHI, @DAL, GS, @LAC, @GS and they've lost 5 straight.

They are three games ahead of us and I believe we have the tiebreaker already.

Think the Blazers pass them and get the 5 seed. Thats really amazing because after losing Batum, Matthews, Aldridge, they were picked to be at the bottom with the mavs.

5 Blazers
6 Grizz
7-8 Houston, Mavs, Jazz

jimsolid · 04-04-2016, 08:44 AM

Pretty sure the Grizzlies don't hold on to the 5th seed either...

mavErika · 04-04-2016, 09:50 AM

I guess what I was trying to say is, should we lose vs. Houston and the Grizzlies to Chicago (both events more likely to happen than not imo), the Memphis game could be the most crucial to making the playoffs for us.
They may not win another game for the rest of the season while Utah could easily be more than a game up on us, when we go there for the penultimate game of the regular season.

Last night's results help to see the playoff picture a little bit clearer (F*** OKC). I say it's most likely between Dallas and Memphis for the eigth seed.

Dallas would have to beat Memphis and one of Hou, Utah, SA. Memphis can't win again, with their best to shots at a W coming right up.

mavErika · 04-04-2016, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Think the Blazers pass them and get the 5 seed. Thats really amazing because after losing Batum, Matthews, Aldridge, they were picked to be at the bottom with the mavs.

5 Blazers
6 Grizz
7-8 Houston, Mavs, Jazz

Agreed, pretty amazing how the Blazers went about closing out the season. Despite the gloomy predictions for them, I was happy about every loss they took early, but more often than not cheered for them to win when I saw them on the schedule paired with other teams in the (presumed) Western playoff picture.
Deep down a little bit of my gut always knew these cheers would come back to haunt me, though.

yahyes · 04-04-2016, 09:58 AM

Mavs officially control their own destiny and who they can face first round. The 5 spot is up for grabs for real now. We can make Memphis the odd man out pushing them down to 9. Not to mention with gasol done for the year.

mavErika · 04-04-2016, 10:12 AM

A four-way tie at 42-40 between MEM, DAL, HOU and UTAH doesn't seem too far-fetched as well. There are multiple ways how that could happen...

mavErika · 04-04-2016, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Mavs officially control their own destiny and who they can face first round. The 5 spot is up for grabs for real now. We can make Memphis the odd man out pushing them down to 9. Not to mention with gasol done for the year.

It is up for grabs, but probably not for us. Unfortunately, of these five teams, every team but Memphis plays better ball than Dallas right now. Somewhat unsurprisingly so, as Memphis and Dallas are most devastated by injuries.

EricaLubarsky · 04-04-2016, 11:16 AM

Remaining game analysis

DAL (39-38)
HOU 38-39
MEM (41-36)
@LAC (48-28)
@UTA (39-38)
SAS (64-12)
Total record: 230-152 Average record: .601 predicted win/loss: 2-3

MEM (41-36)
CHI (39-38)
@DAL (39-38)
GSW (69-8)
@LAC (48-28)
@GSW (69-8)
Total record: 264-120 Average record: .688 predicted win/loss:2-3

HOU 38-39
@DAL (39-38)
PHO (20-57)
LAL (16-60)
@MIN (25-52)
SAC (31-46)
Total record: 131-253 Average record: .341 predicted win/loss: 4-1

UTA (39-38)
SAS (64-12)
LAC (48-28)
@DEN (32-46)
DAL (39-38)
@LAL (16-60)
Total record: 199-184 Average record: .520 predicted win/loss: 2-3

POR (41-37)
@SAC (31-46)
OKC (53-24)
MIN (25-52)
DEN (32-46)
Total record: 141-168 Average record: .456 predicted win/loss: 3-1

Difficulty of remaining schedule
1) Memphis (.688)
2) Dallas (.601)
3) Utah (.520)
4) Portland (.456)
5) Houston (.341)

Predicted season-end standings
5) POR 44-38
6) MEM 43-39
7) HOU 42-40
8) DAL 41-41*
9) UTA 41-41*

*100% depends on winning in Utah 4/11. If we win, we tie and own the tie-breaker 2-1. If we lose, we miss the playoffs unless we somehow win in LA or at home against the Spurs. Houston has the easiest schedule. Mavs have the hardest of any of the three teams fighting for the final two spots (Hou, Dal, Uta). That head-to-head is going to be huge.

ESPN has us at 49.2% chance of making the playoffs
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/...x-playoff-odds

rimrocker · 04-04-2016, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Remaining game analysis

DAL (39-38)
HOU 38-39
MEM (41-36)
@LAC (48-28)
@UTA (39-38)
SAS (64-12)
Total record: 230-152 Average record: .601 predicted win/loss: 2-3

MEM (41-36)
CHI (39-38)
@DAL (39-38)
GSW (69-8)
@LAC (48-28)
@GSW (69-8)
Total record: 264-120 Average record: .688 predicted win/loss:2-3

HOU 38-39
@DAL (39-38)
PHO (20-57)
LAL (16-60)
@MIN (25-52)
SAC (31-46)
Total record: 131-253 Average record: .341 predicted win/loss: 4-1

UTA (39-38)
SAS (64-12)
LAC (48-28)
@DEN (32-46)
DAL (39-38)
@LAL (16-60)
Total record: 199-184 Average record: .520 predicted win/loss: 2-3

POR (41-37)
@SAC (31-46)
OKC (53-24)
MIN (25-52)
DEN (32-46)
Total record: 141-168 Average record: .456 predicted win/loss: 3-1

Difficulty of remaining schedule
1) Memphis (.688)
2) Dallas (.601)
3) Utah (.520)
4) Portland (.456)
5) Houston (.341)

Predicted season-end standings
5) POR 44-38
6) MEM 43-39
7) HOU 42-40
8) DAL 41-41*
9) UTA 41-41*

*100% depends on winning in Utah 4/11. If we win, we tie and own the tie-breaker 2-1. If we lose, we miss the playoffs unless we somehow win in LA or at home against the Spurs. Houston has the easiest schedule. Mavs have the hardest of any of the three teams fighting for the final two spots (Hou, Dal, Uta). That head-to-head is going to be huge.

ESPN has us at 49.2% chance of making the playoffs
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/...x-playoff-odds

IDK....looking at Memphis' schedule our game could be important against them because we could go 3-2 the rest of the way and they could very easily go 1-4. Not sure who holds the tie breaker between us and them though if we win that game.

purplefrog · 04-04-2016, 02:40 PM

Grizzlies' starting lineup is currently:
Zac Randolph
Matt Barnes
Birdman
Tony Allen
Jordan Farmar

Bench:
Vince Carter
Lance Stephenson
JaMychal Green
Jarell Martin
Xavier Mumford
Ryan Hollins

Conley is out for the rest of the regular season and Gasol out for the playoffs. Brandon Wright is also out with MCL sprain. Grizz might still squeak into the playoffs, but it is not far-fetched to think they might lose all of their remaining games given their schedule. It would be an epic collapse losing 16 out of their last 20, and 11 in a row.

Melonhead · 04-04-2016, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yahyes

Mavs officially control their own destiny and who they can face first round. The 5 spot is up for grabs for real now. We can make Memphis the odd man out pushing them down to 9. Not to mention with gasol done for the year.

Portland is getting that 5 seed. Already 41 wins with 3 teams of losing records remaining. Mavs better hope to get 41 wins.

MavzMan · 04-05-2016, 09:33 AM

Yeah, I would guess Mavs beat out Memphis, Utah, and Houston but Portland has a game and a half lead on us. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose to Sac and then to OKC, but something crazy would have to happen for them to lose to Min and Den. Crap. So close.