Rangers vs. Cardinals - WORLD SERIES!

[LonghornDub]

The reason I've always thought 2-3-2 is a weak format for the "advantage" team is pretty simple and relies on two premises.

The obvious premise to home field advantage is that, if you win all your home games, you win the series.

But I've always thought home field advantage carries (or should carry, from a normative standpoint) a second, more subtle premise: if you are the "advantage" team and win all your home games, you should never be behind in a series. You should always be either winning the series or tied. There's a significant psychological impact that comes with being behind in a series, and I've always thought it was lame that the "advantage" team can end up not only behind but also on the brink of elimination after game 5 if both teams simply win their home games.

Conversely, that's why I love the 2-3-2 if I'm the "3" team. At least before a series starts, anyway.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

The reason I've always thought 2-3-2 is a weak format for the "advantage" team is pretty simple and relies on two premises.

The obvious premise to home field advantage is that, if you win all your home games, you win the series.

But I've always thought home field advantage carries (or should carry, from a normative standpoint) a second, more subtle premise: if you are the "advantage" team and win all your home games, you should never be behind in a series. You should always be either winning the series or tied. There's a significant psychological impact that comes with being behind in a series, and I've always thought it was lame that the "advantage" team can end up not only behind but also on the brink of elimination after game 5 if both teams simply win their home games.

Conversely, that's why I love the 2-3-2 if I'm the "3" team. At least before a series starts, anyway.

That is a strange quirk. But my question pertains to the bottom line: Does this format actually increase your overall chance to win the series? Perhaps the likelihood of a 3-2 edge is slightly boosted. But it's also a 3-2 edge of the worst kind, since the final two games are both scheduled on the road.

[xrobx]

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

That is a strange quirk. But my question pertains to the bottom line: Does this format actually increase your overall chance to win the series? Perhaps the likelihood of a 3-2 edge is slightly boosted. But it's also a 3-2 edge of the worst kind, since the final two games are both scheduled on the road.

In the NBA finals, out of the eight times a series has been 3-2 in favor of the lower seeded team going into games 6 and 7 in a 2-3-2 format, the lower seeded team won game 6 (and the series) five of those eight times. The other three times the higher seeded team defended home court and won the series in 7 games. It's hardly anything conclusive with such a small sample size, but it suggests at the very least that having a 3-2 edge going on the road for games 6 and 7 hardly puts a team at a disadvantage....and the momentum of being up 3-2 (or a team being down 2-3 with their backs against the wall and added pressure) must somehow factor into it.

I'm not sure about the MLB stats in this format, I'm too tired to look it up right now.