Random Mavs News & Articles

[FollowedKPtodallas]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...p-leap-quickly

Anyone got espn+? I'd appreciate it if someone would copy and past this article here.

How Luka Doncic is making his NBA MVP leap so quickly
play
7:27 PM ET
Mike Schmitz
ESPN
Facebook
Twitter
Facebook Messenger
Pinterest
Email
print
In January 2018, 18-year-old Luka Doncic was stuck in a slump. For months, I had called him the top prospect in the upcoming NBA draft with the makings of a future star. But during this slide with Real Madrid, the questions surrounding Doncic's outlook as a potential No. 1 pick started to grow around the league.

Doncic had been ejected after six minutes against Valencia on Dec. 19, then Maccabi Tel Aviv limited him to 11 points, 4 assists and 3 turnovers on 3-for-10 shooting a few weeks later. Carrying extra weight, Doncic looked heavy-footed with the ball, suffering defensive miscues and occasional emotional outbursts on the floor.

At the time, with Doncic still No. 1 in our top-100 rankings and mock draft, I wrote that, "poking too many holes in [Doncic's] game given the NBA's emphasis on pass-dribble-shoot basketball could cause teams to miss on a special talent."

Between then and the June draft, Doncic's stock began to slip. Consensus among NBA teams moved to Arizona's Deandre Ayton as the safer No. 1 selection, so the center surpassed Doncic in our rankings later that spring. At the draft, three teams (the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks) passed on the opportunity to take Doncic. A year and a half later, he has emerged as a 20-year-old MVP candidate for the Dallas Mavericks.

So, why didn't everyone view Doncic as a transcendent star at the time, even after his proven production as a Euroleague MVP? And how has he improved since entering the NBA?

Let's dive into Doncic's path to this point and what's next for his superstar trajectory.


LISTEN: The ESPN Daily podcast on Luka Doncic

What teams and scouts missed with Doncic
Despite moving Ayton to No. 1 in our rankings to reflect the NBA consensus, both ESPN's Jonathan Givony and I continued to say that Doncic was our pick as the best player in the 2018 class. But no one knew for sure that Doncic would become a legitimate All-NBA player this quickly. There were real internal debates about Doncic, Ayton or someone else as the top prospect -- and not just among the three teams that passed on him. And even the most optimistic members of the Mavs say they didn't expect this kind of play from Doncic until Year 3 or 4.

So what factors played a role in Doncic's slide on draft night?

Overscouting and fatigue

Throughout his last season with Real Madrid in 2017-18, Doncic would look doughy and tired in front of some NBA executives, yet spry and magical in front of others, depending on when they caught him. Between Eurobasket, Euroleague and the Liga ACB (Spanish league), Doncic played 79 games during his draft-eligible season (not counting exhibitions), well over double the sample for most college prospects. Add in the 123 pro games he played before that season and there was far more opportunity for evaluators to poke holes in his game based on some inefficient individual performances.

EDITOR'S PICKS

MVP straw poll: Is a Giannis repeat in the works?

NBA draft rankings: The top 100 prospects for 2020
On one hand, Doncic's production over that kind of volume should have served as further proof of his special talent. Before the 2018 draft, ESPN's Kevin Pelton projected Doncic to average the most wins above replacement player (WARP) for any of the 800-plus prospects in his database going back to 2003. Instead of that production becoming overwhelming, some of Doncic's weaker moments took hold.

Scouts came up to me at the pre-draft combine in Chicago to say how slow and thick Doncic looked in the Euroleague playoffs, where he shot 10-of-29 from the field over four games. While Doncic still found a way to help lead Real Madrid to a title, the strenuous season took a lot out of the teenager, and he battled hamstring injuries throughout.

Even after the draft, players who had spent time in the gym with Doncic were dubious. Doncic was part of a secret workout in August before his rookie year, one that also featured De'Aaron Fox, Frank Ntilikina, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Bell, Jayson Tatum, Collin Sexton, Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell. One person who was at the workout (while noting Doncic's jet lag and injury), said: "I just didn't see what the hype was about. Definitely didn't see the Luka that we see today. He was just very average."

In Europe, Doncic was never known as a practice gym rat, nor would he wow you physically. But he consistently beat opponents every which way when the lights were bright. The extended season, combined with Doncic's conditioning habits in Madrid, played a role in scouts not always seeing the best version of him. And with high-level executives really only getting eyes on him once or twice throughout the season, that was a major factor in where he landed on draft boards.

Underestimating size

People who didn't make it to Europe to see Doncic didn't quite realize how big he actually was.

Since Doncic didn't participate in the combine, teams didn't have official measurements for him. We compared him physically to the likes of Joe Johnson and Carmelo Anthony after the 2017 Eurobasket using the available data, but some NBA decision-makers thought he was closer to 6-foot-6.

Looking at Doncic through that lens, the concerns about his lack of shiftiness with the ball would be more warranted. But his size against real competition in Europe really stood out in person. His movement and handles at 6-8, 230 pounds is a major reason why he's able to thrive in the NBA

Euroleague and ACB context

Most young prospects -- even those selected in the lottery -- struggle to sniff a Euroleague rotation. Doncic was the best player on the best team before he turned 19.

Though NBA scouts and executives understand the quality of the ACB and Euroleague, perspective can get lost trying to account for competition level when comparing prospects.

"People don't understand how good the Euroleague and ACB are," one long-time scout for a Euroleague power said. "For a 6-8 guy who can run pick-and-roll and play iso at 18 years old with a packed paint and different coverages every game -- that's easy money."

Doncic wasn't just the product of a strong system, either. During 74 games with Real Madrid, he ran 331 pick-and-rolls, 131 isolations and was one of only five players in international basketball to use over 195 possessions with under four seconds on the shot clock. He was already a primary shot creator, and concerns about those skills translating -- including concerns I raised -- were overblown.

play
0:45
Prospect Profile: Luka DoncicLuka Doncic could end up being the best player in this year's NBA draft.
How has Doncic improved?
Though Doncic was partially misevaluated and he found an ideal situation for his abilities in Dallas, he also has improved in important ways to reach this level of NBA stardom.

Body

Heading into his rookie season, Doncic was fresh off a grueling European season and summer vacation that wasn't preparing him physically for the NBA.

After first arriving to Dallas weighing close to 250 pounds, Doncic looks far leaner following a summer spent working on his body. I watched him live against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, and he appears closer to the 228-pounder we saw shredding defenses at the 2017 Eurobasket.

Creating vs. athletes

That improved body, along with a tightened handle, helped Doncic answer the biggest question scouts had about him: Could he create efficient offense for himself against NBA-caliber athletes?

Get the best of ESPN sent to your inbox
The ESPN Daily delivers the biggest sports news and moments every weekday.
Email Address
Sign me up!
Privacy PolicyRead the Latest
In Europe, Doncic would occasionally pound the air out of the ball after switches only to end up with an off-balance step-back to his left. He didn't always have the most polished ways to break down a set defense.

On top of that, he was often at his best with other ball handlers next to him. Whether it was Goran Dragic with the Slovenian national team or Sergio Llull with Real Madrid, having another backcourt player around to alleviate pressure helped Doncic remain efficient.

Even Dragic wasn't sure of Doncic's best position long-term two years ago:

"[Doncic has] a great instinct to be a point guard, but there's the quickness factor," Dragic said in 2017.

Just like James Harden, though, Doncic has evolved into a primary creator without requiring help from a point guard. In January 2018, I was worried about Doncic's ability to handle ball pressure in the Euroleague. He regularly was forced to initiate offense with his back turned near half court. But now, in a league not known for aggressive ball pressure, he looks much more comfortable.

Doncic ranks third in the NBA in usage rate this season, and he is simply picking teams apart with his size and feel. With Real Madrid, Doncic ranked in the 43rd percentile in isolation efficiency, per Synergy Sports. He's now in the NBA's top 10 for isolations per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking. And he's sixth in efficiency among the 45 players with at least 50 isos, logging 1.12 points per play.

What has changed?

More space

The Euroleague is more physical than the NBA, with less space to operate. Not only is the 3-point line shorter, but there's no defensive three seconds rule, which allows bigs to stay put in the paint. Because Doncic is now surrounded with four shooters on an open court, he gets to his spots with ease. He ranks second in the NBA in total passes, per Second Spectrum, and that threat forces help defenders to make a tough choice between checking Doncic or staying home on their man.

Doncic's somewhat surprising success as an isolation scorer can be attributed to the reps he got playing against older players his entire basketball life. He understands angles, timing and defensive tendencies.

"He's seen a lot of this from a young age," one Mavericks coach said. "He plays at his own pace. That's what makes him so effective. He plays at the pace where you have to adjust to him."

Like Harden, whom Doncic studies closely, Doncic has cracked the offensive code with step-back 3s, on-target passes and physical rim attacks.

"Harden is a little longer, Luka is a little taller and heavier, but they are both more athletic for their size than they are given credit for," one NBA executive said. "The way the NBA game is officiated now makes him and Harden impossible to guard."

play
0:18
Luka dishes no-look assist for Hardaway treyLuka Doncic drives into the lane and kicks a no-look pass out to Tim Hardaway Jr. who knocks down the 3-pointer.
Getting to the rim and finishing

Doncic is logging the fifth-most drives per game at 18.4, according to Second Spectrum. Among the 48 players with at least 10 drives per game, Doncic is by far the most efficient with 1.35 points per play.

Not only is Doncic getting all the way to the rim, he's also converting a ridiculous 77.4% of his shots once there while also dropping in 58.9% of his floaters. He has Eurosteps, slow-down finishes and functional size (even if he can still struggle with elite rim protectors like Anthony Davis).

Doncic relied a lot on short runners in the past and didn't consistently get to the basket. Now, 21% of his attempts are coming inside the restricted area, while he generates the third-most free throw attempts per game behind Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

play
0:26
Luka drives the lane for powerful dunkLuka Doncic takes advantage of an open lane and hammers it down.
Step-back counters

Doncic's step-back to his left has quickly become one of the most devastating moves in the NBA. It's his most common shot type this season.

While last season's version was a little more elongated, Doncic has added more speed and punch, going from slow and relaxed to a pound dribble and leap back with acceleration. The key for Doncic lately has been adding more counters off that step-back, as teams are sitting on it regularly. He's still a work in progress, but we're starting to see some reliable secondary moves.

One is a left-to-right spin move. Right at the point when he would usually dart back to his left, Doncic is spinning off his leaning defender into the paint. He's also using a left-to-right, through-the-legs dribble to attack the forward foot of his primary defender. Doncic is able to generate a ton of force with these moves, and at his size, he's almost impossible to keep out of the paint.

He's still fine-tuning -- including a lefty hang-dribble attack after the step-back -- but the added counters have played a role in his incredible efficiency.

play
0:21
Luka puts the moves on MelliLuka Doncic puts Nicolo Melli through the spin cycle as he drains the long two-point shot vs. the Pelicans.
Defense and rebounding

Doncic has actually been a slightly better defender than expected. Though he's not a lockdown guy, his feet and size have always been a bit underrated on that end. He certainly still takes plays off and gets burned by quick guards, but when the game is on the line, he locks in and avoids becoming a serious liability. Watching him bang with Anthony Davis on switches the other night helped reveal just how big and physical Doncic truly plays.

Doncic's NBA rebounding numbers -- 11.6 per 40 minutes -- have taken some scouts and executives by surprise, too. Although he's not a big box-out guy, he gravitates toward the ball and can immediately ignite the break, which is extremely valuable.

Competency in both of these areas has raised his value -- and MVP argument -- in a big way.


If Luka Doncic can improve his 3-point percentage, he might make himself virtually unguardable. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
What's next?
One popular pre-draft question surrounding Doncic was just how much better he'd be able to get in the NBA, given his mature physical profile and game. And to be fair, we still need to see how he'll manage when the deep step-backs aren't falling in a grueling playoff series as teams are throwing all types of defenders his way.

One NBA scout pointed to his splits against good teams vs. bad teams when arguing against Luka's MVP buzz. There's some merit there.

Doncic Splits Vs. Winning/Losing Teams
STAT UNDER .500 .500 OR BETTER
PPG 32.4 27.6
RPG 11.2 8.7
APG 9.7 8.9
eFG 60.1 48.9%
W-L 10-3 4-3
An NBA assistant coach also said that not every team is taking their game plans for shutting down Doncic seriously yet. The Suns recently guarded him with traditional drop coverages, which he picked apart on his way to 42 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists. The Lakers blitzed Doncic in pick-and-roll for the better part of the first half, holding him to 2-for-9 shooting. But when they eased up the pressure, Doncic picked them apart. He didn't even need to beat his man off the dribble because he could deliver easy looks for teammates.

For Doncic to take yet another step, he'll need to become a more efficient 3-point shooter. Jumping from his 33% clip to somewhere in Harden's 36% range forces more pressure to defend his step-back. Combine that with polished counters and it will be game over -- he'll be unguardable.

It's also important for Doncic to become more impactful when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. How will he learn to play with other ball-dominant guys if Dallas adds more talent? And it's worth tracking how Doncic responds to adversity when it hits. His transition to the NBA has been pretty seamless, but he could lose his cool in tough moments in Europe. How will he handle those high-pressure situations when they inevitably come in Dallas? Still, Doncic often plays with a maturity beyond his years, easing most of those concerns.

There remains a wide range of opinions within the league in regard to Doncic's ultimate ceiling. Some see a long-time All-Star, while others gush about him as a potential all-time great. But this much is clear: Doncic has far surpassed anyone's expectations. He's a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the league's emerging teams.

As one NBA scout put it, "The only person that can stop Luka is Luka."

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by FollowedKPtodallas

How Luka Doncic is making his NBA MVP leap so quickly
play
7:27 PM ET
Mike Schmitz
ESPN
Facebook
Twitter
Facebook Messenger
Pinterest
Email
print
In January 2018, 18-year-old Luka Doncic was stuck in a slump. For months, I had called him the top prospect in the upcoming NBA draft with the makings of a future star. But during this slide with Real Madrid, the questions surrounding Doncic's outlook as a potential No. 1 pick started to grow around the league.

Doncic had been ejected after six minutes against Valencia on Dec. 19, then Maccabi Tel Aviv limited him to 11 points, 4 assists and 3 turnovers on 3-for-10 shooting a few weeks later. Carrying extra weight, Doncic looked heavy-footed with the ball, suffering defensive miscues and occasional emotional outbursts on the floor.

At the time, with Doncic still No. 1 in our top-100 rankings and mock draft, I wrote that, "poking too many holes in [Doncic's] game given the NBA's emphasis on pass-dribble-shoot basketball could cause teams to miss on a special talent."

Between then and the June draft, Doncic's stock began to slip. Consensus among NBA teams moved to Arizona's Deandre Ayton as the safer No. 1 selection, so the center surpassed Doncic in our rankings later that spring. At the draft, three teams (the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Atlanta Hawks) passed on the opportunity to take Doncic. A year and a half later, he has emerged as a 20-year-old MVP candidate for the Dallas Mavericks.

So, why didn't everyone view Doncic as a transcendent star at the time, even after his proven production as a Euroleague MVP? And how has he improved since entering the NBA?

Let's dive into Doncic's path to this point and what's next for his superstar trajectory.


LISTEN: The ESPN Daily podcast on Luka Doncic

What teams and scouts missed with Doncic
Despite moving Ayton to No. 1 in our rankings to reflect the NBA consensus, both ESPN's Jonathan Givony and I continued to say that Doncic was our pick as the best player in the 2018 class. But no one knew for sure that Doncic would become a legitimate All-NBA player this quickly. There were real internal debates about Doncic, Ayton or someone else as the top prospect -- and not just among the three teams that passed on him. And even the most optimistic members of the Mavs say they didn't expect this kind of play from Doncic until Year 3 or 4.

So what factors played a role in Doncic's slide on draft night?

Overscouting and fatigue

Throughout his last season with Real Madrid in 2017-18, Doncic would look doughy and tired in front of some NBA executives, yet spry and magical in front of others, depending on when they caught him. Between Eurobasket, Euroleague and the Liga ACB (Spanish league), Doncic played 79 games during his draft-eligible season (not counting exhibitions), well over double the sample for most college prospects. Add in the 123 pro games he played before that season and there was far more opportunity for evaluators to poke holes in his game based on some inefficient individual performances.

EDITOR'S PICKS

MVP straw poll: Is a Giannis repeat in the works?

NBA draft rankings: The top 100 prospects for 2020
On one hand, Doncic's production over that kind of volume should have served as further proof of his special talent. Before the 2018 draft, ESPN's Kevin Pelton projected Doncic to average the most wins above replacement player (WARP) for any of the 800-plus prospects in his database going back to 2003. Instead of that production becoming overwhelming, some of Doncic's weaker moments took hold.

Scouts came up to me at the pre-draft combine in Chicago to say how slow and thick Doncic looked in the Euroleague playoffs, where he shot 10-of-29 from the field over four games. While Doncic still found a way to help lead Real Madrid to a title, the strenuous season took a lot out of the teenager, and he battled hamstring injuries throughout.

Even after the draft, players who had spent time in the gym with Doncic were dubious. Doncic was part of a secret workout in August before his rookie year, one that also featured De'Aaron Fox, Frank Ntilikina, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Bell, Jayson Tatum, Collin Sexton, Kelsey Plum and Kelsey Mitchell. One person who was at the workout (while noting Doncic's jet lag and injury), said: "I just didn't see what the hype was about. Definitely didn't see the Luka that we see today. He was just very average."

In Europe, Doncic was never known as a practice gym rat, nor would he wow you physically. But he consistently beat opponents every which way when the lights were bright. The extended season, combined with Doncic's conditioning habits in Madrid, played a role in scouts not always seeing the best version of him. And with high-level executives really only getting eyes on him once or twice throughout the season, that was a major factor in where he landed on draft boards.

Underestimating size

People who didn't make it to Europe to see Doncic didn't quite realize how big he actually was.

Since Doncic didn't participate in the combine, teams didn't have official measurements for him. We compared him physically to the likes of Joe Johnson and Carmelo Anthony after the 2017 Eurobasket using the available data, but some NBA decision-makers thought he was closer to 6-foot-6.

Looking at Doncic through that lens, the concerns about his lack of shiftiness with the ball would be more warranted. But his size against real competition in Europe really stood out in person. His movement and handles at 6-8, 230 pounds is a major reason why he's able to thrive in the NBA

Euroleague and ACB context

Most young prospects -- even those selected in the lottery -- struggle to sniff a Euroleague rotation. Doncic was the best player on the best team before he turned 19.

Though NBA scouts and executives understand the quality of the ACB and Euroleague, perspective can get lost trying to account for competition level when comparing prospects.

"People don't understand how good the Euroleague and ACB are," one long-time scout for a Euroleague power said. "For a 6-8 guy who can run pick-and-roll and play iso at 18 years old with a packed paint and different coverages every game -- that's easy money."

Doncic wasn't just the product of a strong system, either. During 74 games with Real Madrid, he ran 331 pick-and-rolls, 131 isolations and was one of only five players in international basketball to use over 195 possessions with under four seconds on the shot clock. He was already a primary shot creator, and concerns about those skills translating -- including concerns I raised -- were overblown.

play
0:45
Prospect Profile: Luka DoncicLuka Doncic could end up being the best player in this year's NBA draft.
How has Doncic improved?
Though Doncic was partially misevaluated and he found an ideal situation for his abilities in Dallas, he also has improved in important ways to reach this level of NBA stardom.

Body

Heading into his rookie season, Doncic was fresh off a grueling European season and summer vacation that wasn't preparing him physically for the NBA.

After first arriving to Dallas weighing close to 250 pounds, Doncic looks far leaner following a summer spent working on his body. I watched him live against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, and he appears closer to the 228-pounder we saw shredding defenses at the 2017 Eurobasket.

Creating vs. athletes

That improved body, along with a tightened handle, helped Doncic answer the biggest question scouts had about him: Could he create efficient offense for himself against NBA-caliber athletes?

Get the best of ESPN sent to your inbox
The ESPN Daily delivers the biggest sports news and moments every weekday.
Email Address
Sign me up!
Privacy PolicyRead the Latest
In Europe, Doncic would occasionally pound the air out of the ball after switches only to end up with an off-balance step-back to his left. He didn't always have the most polished ways to break down a set defense.

On top of that, he was often at his best with other ball handlers next to him. Whether it was Goran Dragic with the Slovenian national team or Sergio Llull with Real Madrid, having another backcourt player around to alleviate pressure helped Doncic remain efficient.

Even Dragic wasn't sure of Doncic's best position long-term two years ago:

"[Doncic has] a great instinct to be a point guard, but there's the quickness factor," Dragic said in 2017.

Just like James Harden, though, Doncic has evolved into a primary creator without requiring help from a point guard. In January 2018, I was worried about Doncic's ability to handle ball pressure in the Euroleague. He regularly was forced to initiate offense with his back turned near half court. But now, in a league not known for aggressive ball pressure, he looks much more comfortable.

Doncic ranks third in the NBA in usage rate this season, and he is simply picking teams apart with his size and feel. With Real Madrid, Doncic ranked in the 43rd percentile in isolation efficiency, per Synergy Sports. He's now in the NBA's top 10 for isolations per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking. And he's sixth in efficiency among the 45 players with at least 50 isos, logging 1.12 points per play.

What has changed?

More space

The Euroleague is more physical than the NBA, with less space to operate. Not only is the 3-point line shorter, but there's no defensive three seconds rule, which allows bigs to stay put in the paint. Because Doncic is now surrounded with four shooters on an open court, he gets to his spots with ease. He ranks second in the NBA in total passes, per Second Spectrum, and that threat forces help defenders to make a tough choice between checking Doncic or staying home on their man.

Doncic's somewhat surprising success as an isolation scorer can be attributed to the reps he got playing against older players his entire basketball life. He understands angles, timing and defensive tendencies.

"He's seen a lot of this from a young age," one Mavericks coach said. "He plays at his own pace. That's what makes him so effective. He plays at the pace where you have to adjust to him."

Like Harden, whom Doncic studies closely, Doncic has cracked the offensive code with step-back 3s, on-target passes and physical rim attacks.

"Harden is a little longer, Luka is a little taller and heavier, but they are both more athletic for their size than they are given credit for," one NBA executive said. "The way the NBA game is officiated now makes him and Harden impossible to guard."

play
0:18
Luka dishes no-look assist for Hardaway treyLuka Doncic drives into the lane and kicks a no-look pass out to Tim Hardaway Jr. who knocks down the 3-pointer.
Getting to the rim and finishing

Doncic is logging the fifth-most drives per game at 18.4, according to Second Spectrum. Among the 48 players with at least 10 drives per game, Doncic is by far the most efficient with 1.35 points per play.

Not only is Doncic getting all the way to the rim, he's also converting a ridiculous 77.4% of his shots once there while also dropping in 58.9% of his floaters. He has Eurosteps, slow-down finishes and functional size (even if he can still struggle with elite rim protectors like Anthony Davis).

Doncic relied a lot on short runners in the past and didn't consistently get to the basket. Now, 21% of his attempts are coming inside the restricted area, while he generates the third-most free throw attempts per game behind Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

play
0:26
Luka drives the lane for powerful dunkLuka Doncic takes advantage of an open lane and hammers it down.
Step-back counters

Doncic's step-back to his left has quickly become one of the most devastating moves in the NBA. It's his most common shot type this season.

While last season's version was a little more elongated, Doncic has added more speed and punch, going from slow and relaxed to a pound dribble and leap back with acceleration. The key for Doncic lately has been adding more counters off that step-back, as teams are sitting on it regularly. He's still a work in progress, but we're starting to see some reliable secondary moves.

One is a left-to-right spin move. Right at the point when he would usually dart back to his left, Doncic is spinning off his leaning defender into the paint. He's also using a left-to-right, through-the-legs dribble to attack the forward foot of his primary defender. Doncic is able to generate a ton of force with these moves, and at his size, he's almost impossible to keep out of the paint.

He's still fine-tuning -- including a lefty hang-dribble attack after the step-back -- but the added counters have played a role in his incredible efficiency.

play
0:21
Luka puts the moves on MelliLuka Doncic puts Nicolo Melli through the spin cycle as he drains the long two-point shot vs. the Pelicans.
Defense and rebounding

Doncic has actually been a slightly better defender than expected. Though he's not a lockdown guy, his feet and size have always been a bit underrated on that end. He certainly still takes plays off and gets burned by quick guards, but when the game is on the line, he locks in and avoids becoming a serious liability. Watching him bang with Anthony Davis on switches the other night helped reveal just how big and physical Doncic truly plays.

Doncic's NBA rebounding numbers -- 11.6 per 40 minutes -- have taken some scouts and executives by surprise, too. Although he's not a big box-out guy, he gravitates toward the ball and can immediately ignite the break, which is extremely valuable.

Competency in both of these areas has raised his value -- and MVP argument -- in a big way.


If Luka Doncic can improve his 3-point percentage, he might make himself virtually unguardable. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
What's next?
One popular pre-draft question surrounding Doncic was just how much better he'd be able to get in the NBA, given his mature physical profile and game. And to be fair, we still need to see how he'll manage when the deep step-backs aren't falling in a grueling playoff series as teams are throwing all types of defenders his way.

One NBA scout pointed to his splits against good teams vs. bad teams when arguing against Luka's MVP buzz. There's some merit there.

Doncic Splits Vs. Winning/Losing Teams
STAT UNDER .500 .500 OR BETTER
PPG 32.4 27.6
RPG 11.2 8.7
APG 9.7 8.9
eFG 60.1 48.9%
W-L 10-3 4-3
An NBA assistant coach also said that not every team is taking their game plans for shutting down Doncic seriously yet. The Suns recently guarded him with traditional drop coverages, which he picked apart on his way to 42 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists. The Lakers blitzed Doncic in pick-and-roll for the better part of the first half, holding him to 2-for-9 shooting. But when they eased up the pressure, Doncic picked them apart. He didn't even need to beat his man off the dribble because he could deliver easy looks for teammates.

For Doncic to take yet another step, he'll need to become a more efficient 3-point shooter. Jumping from his 33% clip to somewhere in Harden's 36% range forces more pressure to defend his step-back. Combine that with polished counters and it will be game over -- he'll be unguardable.

It's also important for Doncic to become more impactful when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. How will he learn to play with other ball-dominant guys if Dallas adds more talent? And it's worth tracking how Doncic responds to adversity when it hits. His transition to the NBA has been pretty seamless, but he could lose his cool in tough moments in Europe. How will he handle those high-pressure situations when they inevitably come in Dallas? Still, Doncic often plays with a maturity beyond his years, easing most of those concerns.

There remains a wide range of opinions within the league in regard to Doncic's ultimate ceiling. Some see a long-time All-Star, while others gush about him as a potential all-time great. But this much is clear: Doncic has far surpassed anyone's expectations. He's a legitimate MVP candidate on one of the league's emerging teams.

As one NBA scout put it, "The only person that can stop Luka is Luka."

Thank you!

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

This article is a great response to the living room coaches who think they know more than RC.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/1...-rick-carlisle

There were plenty of things to criticize Rick over the past few seasons that I think were fair.

And he has done two common sense things that many wanted...

1. Play Barea less.
2. Stop very small ball.

Obviously these things can be attributed to the lack of talent on the roster, but the bigger lineups, especially, have paid huge dividends with regards to rebounding and defense.

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

There were plenty of things to criticize Rick over the past few seasons that I think were fair.

And he has done two common sense things that many wanted...

1. Play Barea less.
2. Stop very small ball.

Obviously these things can be attributed to the lack of talent on the roster, but the bigger lineups, especially, have paid huge dividends with regards to rebounding and defense.

1. He’s only playing Barea less for health reasons. He makes the team better when he plays. The only reason people wanted him to play less before was because he was killing the tank.

2. Carlisle’s small lineups have always been among the best performing lineups.

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

There were plenty of things to criticize Rick over the past few seasons that I think were fair.

And he has done two common sense things that many wanted...

1. Play Barea less.
2. Stop very small ball.

Obviously these things can be attributed to the lack of talent on the roster, but the bigger lineups, especially, have paid huge dividends with regards to rebounding and defense.

Not a Barea fan? In my opinion, Barea is still waaaay the 2nd best PG on this team, and vastly underrated. He's one of the best PNR handlers in the world, right? Don't get me wrong, I think Brunson has a bright future, and I'm happy that Carlisle and the team have committed to developing him with the rest of this young core, but Barea is still great.

And, I don't think Carlisle was trying to play "small ball," I think he was trying to play his best players. There haven't been very many good ones around here recently.

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by FreshJive

1. He’s only playing Barea less for health reasons. He makes the team better when he plays. The only reason people wanted him to play less before was because he was killing the tank.

2. Carlisle’s small lineups have always been among the best performing lineups.

Agree with your assessments of Barea and "small ball" but I haven't gotten the impression that health is why Barea is sitting. I think they are consciously transitioning Brunson into his role, and the fact that neither Wright nor Curry were a fit in the starting lineup has created a guard logjam with the 2nd unit.

[Murphy3]

Barea isn't always the 2nd best offensively player on the team, but there will be many times where he is... I have to think that his lack of PT is:
1. wanting to develop the young talent
2. being extremely cautious with usage coming off of his injury.

[endtroducing MASKED]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Barea isn't always the 2nd best offensively player on the team, but there will be many times where he is... I have to think that his lack of PT is:
1. wanting to develop the young talent
2. being extremely cautious with usage coming off of his injury.

I can see both points but I wish the reigns would be taken off just a little more during some of these dry spells. I thought Barea was done considering his age and injury, but I was wrong. I would like to see more of him, even if he plays 10 minutes or under a night. He doesn’t need a lot of time to affect the game, which rules.

Unrelated: He seems to be a really great mentor to Luka and I love their relationship. Luka and his Puerto Rican god uncle. Lol. What an interesting life and collection of people that Luka has known already. I love the whole team as guys this year. Super good dudes.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Barea isn't always the 2nd best offensively player on the team, but there will be many times where he is... I have to think that his lack of PT is:
1. wanting to develop the young talent
2. being extremely cautious with usage coming off of his injury.

This absolutely. Also "saving" him for the stretch run may factor in too somewhat, but probably less so.

That a 5-9 36 yr. old coming off a recent achilles rupture can even be considered our second best offensive player points to the not quite desperate but fairly essential need for another scorer, assuming KP won't be that this season (ever?). In the playoffs you need a guy who can score in iso situations. Also, even just to take the load off Luka until then.

Gallo would be great but I'm sure Milwaukee or another contender could Trump our offer. Best we could do is erase a bad contract and give them GS second round pick and another second (doubt they would deal Brunson for possible rental). Which they should only do if they feel pretty confidant about re-signing him. We would have his Bird Rights, I think?

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by endtroducing MASKED

I can see both points but I wish the reigns would be taken off just a little more during some of these dry spells. I thought Barea was done considering his age and injury, but I was wrong. I would like to see more of him, even if he plays 10 minutes or under a night. He doesn’t need a lot of time to affect the game, which rules.

Unrelated: He seems to be a really great mentor to Luka and I love their relationship. Luka and his Puerto Rican god uncle. Lol. What an interesting life and collection of people that Luka has known already. I love the whole team as guys this year. Super good dudes.

Yes this team is super-easy to root for. Its become appointment viewing again. Like, "if I have to miss a single game I get depressed" kind of appointment viewing. Been awhile since us Mavs fans have gotten to watch a group of young-ish guys grow and learn how to win together.

[endtroducing MASKED]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Yes this team is super-easy to root for. Its become appointment viewing again. Like, "if I have to miss a single game I get depressed" kind of appointment viewing. Been awhile since us Mavs fans have gotten to watch a group of young-ish guys grow and learn how to win together.

Man, it sucks for me because I work until 9 PM central and then my drive home is an hour, so most games on my work days, I’m catching the 3rd quarter streaming radio even though I have League Pass. It kills me. I got to watch both of these B2Bs and it was awesome. This is how I was in high school with the Mavs back in 2005.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by endtroducing MASKED

Man, it sucks for me because I work until 9 PM central and then my drive home is an hour, so most games on my work days, I’m catching the 3rd quarter streaming radio even though I have League Pass. It kills me. I got to watch both of these B2Bs and it was awesome. This is how I was in high school with the Mavs back in 2005.

Psvue has DVR function

[Zaknaf3in]

Originally Posted by endtroducing MASKED

Man, it sucks for me because I work until 9 PM central and then my drive home is an hour, so most games on my work days, I’m catching the 3rd quarter streaming radio even though I have League Pass. It kills me. I got to watch both of these B2Bs and it was awesome. This is how I was in high school with the Mavs back in 2005.

Now imagine games STARTING at 1:30 - 3:30am.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Zaknaf3in

Now imagine games STARTING at 1:30 - 3:30am.

It's why God invented Adderall. Start your day early!

[Zaknaf3in]

Originally Posted by mac222b

It's why God invented Adderall. Start your day early!

Well, thank god we have public god care in Germany, then.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

Not a Barea fan? In my opinion, Barea is still waaaay the 2nd best PG on this team, and vastly underrated. He's one of the best PNR handlers in the world, right? Don't get me wrong, I think Brunson has a bright future, and I'm happy that Carlisle and the team have committed to developing him with the rest of this young core, but Barea is still great.

And, I don't think Carlisle was trying to play "small ball," I think he was trying to play his best players. There haven't been very many good ones around here recently.

No, I like Barea, but we've ushered in a new era and need to play the younger guys especially Brunson. Barely enough minutes as is. I still like him as a desperate energy plug off the bench when nothing else is working, but Rick has made the right choice this season.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

No, I like Barea, but we've ushered in a new era and need to play the younger guys especially Brunson. Barely enough minutes as is. I still like him as a desperate energy plug off the bench when nothing else is working, but Rick has made the right choice this season.

Yeah Brunson, after KP, has been the biggest mystery this season. It is incumbent to see what we have in him. Is he an invaluable contributor on a killer contract, or an athletically challenged guy with subpar length who gets exposed in matchups. Or, more likely, somewhere in between. I think until his shooting ticks back upward it’ll be really hard to tell. Hopefully his role and rotation spot become more defined. Would love it if he could be a poor mans Van Vleet for us. Don’t see him ever becoming the defender or off the dribble threat or even the shooter FvV is, but he could still be a really nice spark/glue guy for us.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Kendrick Perkins apologized to Mavs fans. What a season so far...

[Scoobay]

For those with a subscription... I think they have a promotion now for 66% off or something, just saying...

not sure what's ok to post or how much, but check this quote from KP:
" Some nights I get more opportunities and some nights I don’t get as many opportunities. Luka is trying to look out for me and try to get me involved as much as possible. But most nights, we give Luka the ball and let him fucking go. Do you see what he’s doing? It’s remarkable."

https://theathletic.com/1436608/2019...the-mavericks/

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Yeah Brunson, after KP, has been the biggest mystery this season. It is incumbent to see what we have in him. Is he an invaluable contributor on a killer contract, or an athletically challenged guy with subpar length who gets exposed in matchups. Or, more likely, somewhere in between. I think until his shooting ticks back upward it’ll be really hard to tell. Hopefully his role and rotation spot become more defined. Would love it if he could be a poor mans Van Vleet for us. Don’t see him ever becoming the defender or off the dribble threat or even the shooter FvV is, but he could still be a really nice spark/glue guy for us.

It's incumbent to see what the Mavs have in him until they're sitting in the 1st to 5th spot more than half way through the season and you realize that you have a chance to compete for a title... You'll probably see Barea start to get more PT then. Barea is an absolute beast when it comes to beating his man off the dribble. The Mavs need that to take some of the load off of Doncic...and to make the 2nd unit absolutely destroy the production of other teams' second units..

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Scoobay

For those with a subscription... I think they have a promotion now for 66% off or something, just saying...

not sure what's ok to post or how much, but check this quote from KP:
" Some nights I get more opportunities and some nights I don’t get as many opportunities. Luka is trying to look out for me and try to get me involved as much as possible. But most nights, we give Luka the ball and let him fucking go. Do you see what he’s doing? It’s remarkable."

https://theathletic.com/1436608/2019...the-mavericks/

Which is why any KP concern is pretty much 0. Shows a high BBIQ too and a nice lack of ego on KP's part.

Also, KP doesn't really take bad shots. He rushes shots, but he isn't a black hole on offense and really could be if he had a fake superstar ego.

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

Agree with your assessments of Barea and "small ball" but I haven't gotten the impression that health is why Barea is sitting. I think they are consciously transitioning Brunson into his role, and the fact that neither Wright nor Curry were a fit in the starting lineup has created a guard logjam with the 2nd unit.

For sure they want to get Brunson experience, but if Barea weren’t coming off an Achilles injury and were a couple of years younger, Brunson would be learning from the bench right now. When I say health I mean load management and preservation, not that Barea is still injured. This team should be thinking about transitioning into more of a win now mode after the start to the season, than maybe they originally planned in my opinion.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

It's incumbent to see what the Mavs have in him until they're sitting in the 1st to 5th spot more than half way through the season and you realize that you have a chance to compete for a title... You'll probably see Barea start to get more PT then. Barea is an absolute beast when it comes to beating his man off the dribble. The Mavs need that to take some of the load off of Doncic...and to make the 2nd unit absolutely destroy the production of other teams' second units..

I agree we need another guy that can be his man off the dribble and create. I'd say that and another competent wing defender are 1A and 1B if we want to make noise in the playoffs. But even just to lighten the load on Luka in the regular season. I trust that Donnie is exploring every avenue in advance of Dec.15 when more players are eligible for trade. It'll be interesting to see what the market looks like due to this being perceived as the most wide-open up for grabs championship in years. Coupled with a possible Morey cap decrease it could cut both ways.

I'm sure RC has an idea about Brunson and the MBT has placed a value on him, as it relates to his present on-court value/projected future growth/team-friendly contract. But its hard to say always exactly what a guys ceiling is until they get a regular spot and extended run unbroken in the rotation. FVV is a great example or even closer to home JJB!

I wonder where MBT draws the line or whats available. Do we aim for a smaller upgrade like a Taj Gibson or bigger upgrade like Tristan Thompson, or do we push chips in for a Gallo. Or save chips for a draft day deal for someone closer to Beal. Tough call! I guess its why they get paid the big bucks.
I'm pretty sure we can get a nice piece or two from the Courtney Lee contract or the Trade Exception and that flexibility and keeping assets like Brunson and wright for a bigger trade down the road is the play. But we'll see.

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by FreshJive

For sure they want to get Brunson experience, but if Barea weren’t coming off an Achilles injury and were a couple of years younger, Brunson would be learning from the bench right now. When I say health I mean load management and preservation, not that Barea is still injured. This team should be thinking about transitioning into more of a win now mode after the start to the season, than maybe they originally planned in my opinion.

Vehemently disagree with your first assertion, but I wouldn't be surprised if you're correct with the second suggestion.

[rimrocker]

I still think the Mavs are holding Barea back for the back half of the season so they can either develop young players or showcase other players like Brunson for a bigger trade.
If we want to upgrade the quality in our SL, a guy like Brunson could be a decent piece to add to Lee and/or THJ to help seal a deal.

[endtroducing MASKED]

As of this moment with the Clippers losing to the Bucks, we are number 2 in the west.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by endtroducing MASKED

As of this moment with the Clippers losing to the Bucks, we are number 2 in the west.

Yep...Celts beating Nuggets helped us too.

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by endtroducing MASKED

As of this moment with the Clippers losing to the Bucks, we are number 2 in the west.

Unbelievable. They are ridiculously ahead of schedule. Or my prediction of their schedule, at least.

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

I still think the Mavs are holding Barea back for the back half of the season so they can either develop young players or showcase other players like Brunson for a bigger trade.
If we want to upgrade the quality in our SL, a guy like Brunson could be a decent piece to add to Lee and/or THJ to help seal a deal.

Normally, I'm not a guy who sweats the throw in players on big deals, but with Brunson, I don't know. I just have a feeling that he's a keeper.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by KillerLeft

Normally, I'm not a guy who sweats the throw in players on big deals, but with Brunson, I don't know. I just have a feeling that he's a keeper.

It really depends on our target player if we are looking to upgrade the SL. I'd hate to part with Brunson but we'll have to give up something to get a better player and he would be one of the most attractive trade assets that we have.
Barea easily fills that vacuum and why I think that is one of the reasons he's being held back right now.

Hope there is a good fit for our TPE so we won't have to give up anyone and Barea can continue to be a huge insurance asset.

[Scoobay]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgOdTLie5BU

"Former NBA coach breaks down Mavs record offense | Enhanced podcast"

Same youtube site spiral had posted was his favorite for analysis...

[KillerLeft]

Originally Posted by rimrocker

It really depends on our target player if we are looking to upgrade the SL. I'd hate to part with Brunson but we'll have to give up something to get a better player and he would be one of the most attractive trade assets that we have.
Barea easily fills that vacuum and why I think that is one of the reasons he's being held back right now.

Hope there is a good fit for our TPE so we won't have to give up anyone and Barea can continue to be a huge insurance asset.

Yeah, of course! I don't disagree. I'm just saying that maybe, just maybe, this team is good enough AS IS to win a title if they're given a few years to play together. Normally, I'm all about talent acquisition, but moving some of these glue guys out has the potential to go full Rondo trade on them.

But yeah, if you're adding something of significance, you gotta pull the trigger I suppose.

[EricaLubarsky]

Mavs picks right now

25th (our own late first)
31st (We get the better of the Warriors second rounder and the Rockets)
49th (We get Utah's second rounder)

If we somehow end with a top-5 record, then we will also keep our second rounder that is 56-60 protected and the Nerlens Noel trade will be complete without conveying the second-rounder.

Late first, early second, mid-second, and (very unlikely) a late second. Right now it's being compared to 2013 draft class with decent talent, but no obvious stars, but I still like that we have some picks. We just can't trade the first-rounder until we draft the player (consecutive first round pick rule)

[SMC0007]

If we have a chance to get a legit upgrade starting wing or Drummond for example, we would be giving up a combination of guys like Brunson, powell, jax and Wright. While it isnt easy to see any of them go, it's probably hard to contend without another legit 2 way starter.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

If we have a chance to get a legit upgrade starting wing or Drummond for example, we would be giving up a combination of guys like Brunson, powell, jax and Wright. While it isnt easy to see any of them go, it's probably hard to contend without another legit 2 way starter.

Andre Drummond is a horrible idea. He would crowd the paint and kill the spacing that allows Luka to thrive. The same spacing that Powell, Kleber, and Porzingis are huge factors in creating.

[mac222b]

Would rather have Tristan Thompson if we were to trade for another big, which we probably won’t. Elite rebounder and low-post defender. We are lacking a guy to defend AD, Jokic types to come out of the West.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Andre Drummond is a horrible idea. He would crowd the paint and kill the spacing that allows Luka to thrive. The same spacing that Powell, Kleber, and Porzingis are huge factors in creating.

I disagree. I mean, yeah it might hurt spacing, but still, if you have the chance to get a player of Drummond's caliber, you do it every single time, and worry about the fit later. Neither Wade nor Kyrie were ideal fits next to Lebron, but great players make it work. Drummond is a dominant defender and rebounder, and no slouch offensively either, even if he can't shoot. His positives outweigh whatever negatives you get from less spacing quite easily.

Besides, if it really doesn't work, you can always trade him.

[Thespiralgoeson]

^^ That being said, he would not be my #1 target this summer. That would be Ibaka. Ibaka seems just about perfect for us in every way. He can defend multiple positions, he's a solid rebounder, and he's a reliable 3 pt shooter. He gives us everything Maxi and Powell do, but better. Put him at the 4 with KP as a stretch 5, then add a legit scorer off the bench, and that's a title contender.

Unfortunately for us, he's got a pretty sweet situation there in Toronto, so I don't know if we have a real chance at him.

[SMC0007]

The point wasnt about Drummond. It was that we are going to have to let go of some of the pieces that we like and who have contributed a lot to our success thus far.

[Skywalker]

We are literally off the charts