The "STFU Moronic/Shortsighted Pessimists, Lets Talk About This Team's Upside" Thread - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

ReDirkulous Tyme · 12-16-2012, 11:33 PM

As of late, I've witnessed a plethora of members expressing notions, rooted in shortsighted pessimism, which paint an extremely bleak picture of how this season will/should/could play out. This post is basically to refute the ill-conceived notions that seem rampant on this forum lately.

First, let me state that this team (in case you didn't know) is without the backbone/cornerstone/face of the franchise, the Big German. In case you don't remember, our championship season, during the games he was down with an injury, we went 2-7. Even when we got him back we were pretty terrible for awhile, and extremely inconsistent, due to his lack of health and the loss of Caron Butler. But alas, I digress, I merely point this out to illustrate the fact that a championship team, when assembled the way Cuban and Co. have elected to do so over the last several years, will still suck when missing the foundation that team was built on: The Dirk. Granted, this is a COMPLETELY different team, but the team's reliance on Dirk has never been higher. TO be honest, I'm surprised we've even stayed close to .500. Dirk is the backbone of the Mavericks, and has been for over a decade. Without him this team is simply going to be mediocre at best.

Having said that, I maintain that this is one of, if not the most talented Mavs team I've seen, when healthy. And yes, that includes our championship team. We have a TON of upside here, and it simply doesn't function at the same level when everyone's responsibility is elevated, as it has been without Dirk in the lineup. Neither OJ nor Kaman can consistently be a #1 option, however, having both of them as #2 options is quite sexy in my opinion. But thats just 1 example.

OJ Mayo - I've been extremely impressed so far. His work ethic, insatiable desire to improve, and relentless work ethic are outstanding. However, he hasn't yet improved to the point where he can be THE GUY on a consistent basis, and in my opinion that is something that is still to be determined. As such, he is going to have down games like he has had this season where he simply doesn't have the impact we need him to have. Unfortunately, the result of this is typically an embarrassing defeat. He has so much responsibility with Dirk out, and in my opinion has done an admirable job of shouldering that responsibility. At times it is simply too much. However, the upside I HAVE seen leads me to believe that once he has a bit of time to mesh with Dirk, we'll see a 2 man game that surpasses in effectiveness even the one displayed by Dirk and Terry over the years.

Chris Kayman - Has anyone else ever seen a center who could shoot the ball as many times per minute as this guy? Quite amusing in my opinion, but understandable due to his limited minutes because of injury. I've been loving his offensive game, although his defense is extremely lackluster, and leaves me thinking it might not be best to play him and Dirk at the same time, unless he improves substantially. I think Kaman, at times, is a bit too assertive and takes some shots that are somewhat forced, but I think this is simply due to the fact that he understands we are in DIRE need of consistent scoring, so I can't really fault him for this. In my opinion, Kaman could be a deadly and potent offensive force for us off the bench, and used as a main option when the German is getting breathers.

Elton Brand - This guy has been somewhat of a head-scratcher to me. I love his passion and enthusiasm, and I feel as if he brings it every night, but he simply CAN NOT find a consistent offensive groove. I think he is just extremely hesitant right now and lacks confidence. Hopefully with the return of Dirk he'll start getting more wide open looks, which hopefully will lead to some of that confidence returning and him producing at the level that I'm sure he's still capable of, given the ease of the types of shots he's been missing. I just have to feel like he's going to get it going because its not a Lamar type situation where he doesn't seem to be bringing the effort/intensity. He just seems out of a groove, hopefully he finds it. Love the hustle he gives on the defensive end and his willingness to go toe-to-toe with anyone, regardless of size. I think he will end up being an extremely potent/useful weapon for us as the season progresses. But in my opinion he's kind of a wild card in this respect.

Darren Collison - can you say inconsistent? He seems to be having issues knowing when to be aggressive and play as a scoring point guard, as opposed to when to create shots for others and act as a distributor. I've seen enough upside to believe that, if he can find a comfortable niche in Carlisle's offensive scheme, he could be an extremely potent weapon off the bench, or potentially in a starting role if he can find some damn consistency. However, he's the player that I'm the most sketchy on, just can't really put my finger on it.

Brandan Wright - this man needs to play more often. I feel like he CONSISTENTLY has a positive effect on the game, and his offensive game is truly quite polished. I understand that Carlisle has issues with his rebounding, but the threat he brings when it comes to blocking shots I feel also should be accounted for. In my opinion this guy deserves playing time. He simply doesn't make the bone-headed decisions that I think plague this team on a daily basis. Would love to see if I'm correct in my high regard of him, because I think he could be an EXTREMELY valuable weapon for this team if correctly utilized. Not talking about 30 min/game by the way, just correctly utilized with the right lineups

Honestly, this is just a start, and given the fact that I still haven't studied for my Civil Liberties final that is tomorrow, I should prolly get started on that. I'll prolly edit this and include some other players that honestly deserve to be mentioned as well, I simply don't have time to do so right now. Enjoy, and all you fickle pessimists, feel free to voice your disagreement. I'm curious to see if any of you can invalidate any of my claims.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 12:06 AM

Temper, temper.. And that 2-7 thing, is completely bogus. If we would have been playing winning teams during this stretch it would possibly make some sense, but we are not. We have been playing about the easiest schedule I can remember.

This team as only three players in it that I would consider keeping, dirk, Shawn, mayo. And that is not a big three by any stretch. The rest are just guys.

lilojmayo · 12-17-2012, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReDirkulous Tyme

As of late, I've witnessed a plethora of members expressing notions, rooted in shortsighted pessimism, which paint an extremely bleak picture of how this season will/should/could play out. This post is basically to refute the ill-conceived notions that seem rampant on this forum lately.

First, let me state that this team (in case you didn't know) is without the backbone/cornerstone/face of the franchise, the Big German. In case you don't remember, our championship season, during the games he was down with an injury, we went 2-7. Even when we got him back we were pretty terrible for awhile, and extremely inconsistent, due to his lack of health and the loss of Caron Butler. But alas, I digress, I merely point this out to illustrate the fact that a championship team, when assembled the way Cuban and Co. have elected to do so over the last several years, will still suck when missing the foundation that team was built on: The Dirk. Granted, this is a COMPLETELY different team, but the team's reliance on Dirk has never been higher. TO be honest, I'm surprised we've even stayed close to .500. Dirk is the backbone of the Mavericks, and has been for over a decade. Without him this team is simply going to be mediocre at best.

Having said that, I maintain that this is one of, if not the most talented Mavs team I've seen, when healthy. And yes, that includes our championship team. We have a TON of upside here, and it simply doesn't function at the same level when everyone's responsibility is elevated, as it has been without Dirk in the lineup. Neither OJ nor Kaman can consistently be a #1 option, however, having both of them as #2 options is quite sexy in my opinion. But thats just 1 example.

OJ Mayo - I've been extremely impressed so far. His work ethic, insatiable desire to improve, and relentless work ethic are outstanding. However, he hasn't yet improved to the point where he can be THE GUY on a consistent basis, and in my opinion that is something that is still to be determined. As such, he is going to have down games like he has had this season where he simply doesn't have the impact we need him to have. Unfortunately, the result of this is typically an embarrassing defeat. He has so much responsibility with Dirk out, and in my opinion has done an admirable job of shouldering that responsibility. At times it is simply too much. However, the upside I HAVE seen leads me to believe that once he has a bit of time to mesh with Dirk, we'll see a 2 man game that surpasses in effectiveness even the one displayed by Dirk and Terry over the years.

Chris Kayman - Has anyone else ever seen a center who could shoot the ball as many times per minute as this guy? Quite amusing in my opinion, but understandable due to his limited minutes because of injury. I've been loving his offensive game, although his defense is extremely lackluster, and leaves me thinking it might not be best to play him and Dirk at the same time, unless he improves substantially. I think Kaman, at times, is a bit too assertive and takes some shots that are somewhat forced, but I think this is simply due to the fact that he understands we are in DIRE need of consistent scoring, so I can't really fault him for this. In my opinion, Kaman could be a deadly and potent offensive force for us off the bench, and used as a main option when the German is getting breathers.

Elton Brand - This guy has been somewhat of a head-scratcher to me. I love his passion and enthusiasm, and I feel as if he brings it every night, but he simply CAN NOT find a consistent offensive groove. I think he is just extremely hesitant right now and lacks confidence. Hopefully with the return of Dirk he'll start getting more wide open looks, which hopefully will lead to some of that confidence returning and him producing at the level that I'm sure he's still capable of, given the ease of the types of shots he's been missing. I just have to feel like he's going to get it going because its not a Lamar type situation where he doesn't seem to be bringing the effort/intensity. He just seems out of a groove, hopefully he finds it. Love the hustle he gives on the defensive end and his willingness to go toe-to-toe with anyone, regardless of size. I think he will end up being an extremely potent/useful weapon for us as the season progresses. But in my opinion he's kind of a wild card in this respect.

Darren Collison - can you say inconsistent? He seems to be having issues knowing when to be aggressive and play as a scoring point guard, as opposed to when to create shots for others and act as a distributor. I've seen enough upside to believe that, if he can find a comfortable niche in Carlisle's offensive scheme, he could be an extremely potent weapon off the bench, or potentially in a starting role if he can find some damn consistency. However, he's the player that I'm the most sketchy on, just can't really put my finger on it.

Brandan Wright - this man needs to play more often. I feel like he CONSISTENTLY has a positive effect on the game, and his offensive game is truly quite polished. I understand that Carlisle has issues with his rebounding, but the threat he brings when it comes to blocking shots I feel also should be accounted for. In my opinion this guy deserves playing time. He simply doesn't make the bone-headed decisions that I think plague this team on a daily basis. Would love to see if I'm correct in my high regard of him, because I think he could be an EXTREMELY valuable weapon for this team if correctly utilized. Not talking about 30 min/game by the way, just correctly utilized with the right lineups

Honestly, this is just a start, and given the fact that I still haven't studied for my Civil Liberties final that is tomorrow, I should prolly get started on that. I'll prolly edit this and include some other players that honestly deserve to be mentioned as well, I simply don't have time to do so right now. Enjoy, and all you fickle pessimists, feel free to voice your disagreement. I'm curious to see if any of you can invalidate any of my claims.

Mayo+ Dirk when that happens should put a smile to all Mavs's faces. 2 weeks away.

OJ just needs to keep us afloat. and this is going to be a brutal 2 week stretch, where we could potential lose every game.

Just have to trust in Juice Mayo's ability that's all we can do

ReDirkulous Tyme · 12-17-2012, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

Temper, temper.. And that 2-7 thing, is completely bogus. If we would have been playing winning teams during this stretch it would possibly make some sense, but we are not. We have been playing about the easiest schedule I can remember.

This team as only three players in it that I would consider keeping, dirk, Shawn, mayo. And that is not a big three by any stretch. The rest are just guys.

my 2-7 statement was simply designed to illustrate the fact that even a championship team, when assembled in the manner in which both that team and this one were and are assembled, can still potentially suck ass when missing their clearly defined superstar. And yes, we've had a pretty ridiculously easy schedule and have been blown out by some pretty terrible teams, yet you have to factor in that this is an entirely new team, one which has had minimal to no experience playing together prior to this season. There have been infinite examples of "super-teams" who sucked at the beginning of the season before they finally gelled on defense and started clicking on offense. I'm simply pointing out that we should be looking for potential here, as opposed to criticizing a team that will look SIGNIFICANTLY different, in my opinion on both sides of the ball, when we get a healthy Dirk back in the lineup.

Just curious, aside from Dirk/Marion/Chandler, who would you have wanted to keep from our championship team. Because in my opinion, every single other piece of our rotation was replaceable. And in my humble opinion, Donne and company have replaced the guys we lost on the championship team with players of equal or greater value, with the exception of Chandler. And even in the case of Chandler, I feel as though the defense Brand is able to bring, combined with the far superior offensive threat that Kaman poses, at least somewhat mitigates his loss. Most of the players on our championship team were just "guys". If that team could somehow be successful, I think this one certainly has a chance. Granted the make-up of the league has altered significantly since our championship run, but I maintain that this team has more talent/upside than our championship team.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 08:55 AM

I would have kept dirk, Tyson. Shawn, jkiddo and probably jet. Only tyson got a big bump in salary, everyone else was quite reasonable.

Kaman and brand have made us even older than we were before, athletic wise. Kaman is fools gold. A center who doesn't draw doubles, doesn't pass out of them and can't play defense. Besides dirk is our low post threat, has been for years now. I'd rather dirk get almost all of Karan's shots. Tyson's ability to take the alley pop was perfectly fine for this team offensively, it created driving lanes that kaman never will.

TCUMav · 12-17-2012, 09:15 AM

Looks like there's some activity in this thread, so I figured I'd ask this question here: I've got a couple of tickets that I'm looking to get rid of and I wanted to see if there's anywhere on this site that allows me to post info about selling them? I'm new to this forum and thought it would be best to ask before I posted the info in case it's against the rules. They're great seats that I'm willing to sell way below face value. Thanks.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 09:21 AM

I sell on stubhub.

TCUMav · 12-17-2012, 09:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

I sell on stubhub.

I hear ya, but I think that would be tough this close to game time since I have the tickets in-hand. I looked in to that and I'd have to drop them off at some "Last Minute Service Center" before they would even post the listing.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 10:29 AM

Then to directly answer the question there isn't a specific location here. Just post it in a prominent spot and see what happens but I wouldn't be hopeful here.

CanadianMavsFan · 12-17-2012, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

Temper, temper.. And that 2-7 thing, is completely bogus. If we would have been playing winning teams during this stretch it would possibly make some sense, but we are not. We have been playing about the easiest schedule I can remember.

This team as only three players in it that I would consider keeping, dirk, Shawn, mayo. And that is not a big three by any stretch. The rest are just guys.

Detroit, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Indiana were hardly powerhouses in 2011. They were mediocre to bad teams that the Mavericks got trounced by even with a supposedly deeper and better team.

Maybe this team isn't as good, hell in all likelihood it definitely isn't. But can we please reserve all the pessimism for when Dirk returns?

DevinHarriswillstart · 12-17-2012, 11:10 AM

I'd be a little more optimistic if Collison hadn't mailed it in the last two games. He went from starter, to backup, to getting outplayed by Dojo pretty quickly. You can make excuses for other players...Wright's playing time, Kaman with injuries, Brand just looks old at times, Carter too, Mayo too much weight on his back, etc. But when Collison has a bad game, then the team hurts pretty badly. You then are relying on Fisher to wind back the clock ten years and Dojo to get meaningful minutes. I'm trying to see how Dirk will fix the Collison dilemma, but in Uber I trust. Just hope it doesn't get to point where all of the pressure is on Dirk to carry the team once again.

oilfieldtrash · 12-17-2012, 11:55 AM

I'd much rather have Tyson's 10 points vs Kaman's 15. Tyson's 10 points we're usually alley oops while Tyson's nuts we're in someones face and the crowd would be on their feet cheering. Kaman is shooting fade aways. I want my center elbowing dudes in the face while snagging the ball 12 foot in the air.

SMC0007 · 12-17-2012, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

I would have kept dirk, Tyson. Shawn, jkiddo and probably jet. Only tyson got a big bump in salary, everyone else was quite reasonable.

Kaman and brand have made us even older than we were before, athletic wise. Kaman is fools gold. A center who doesn't draw doubles, doesn't pass out of them and can't play defense. Besides dirk is our low post threat, has been for years now. I'd rather dirk get almost all of Karan's shots. Tyson's ability to take the alley pop was perfectly fine for this team offensively, it created driving lanes that kaman never will.

You lost me at keeping JKidd and Jet.

saclare · 12-17-2012, 12:51 PM

You can't fix stupid. Just let stupid be stupid.

Have to understand the glut of Dallas fans are of the "what have you done for me lately" type. And then another chunk of wahhh Tyson Chandler wahhh Deron Williams.

Here's to Dirk getting better soon. This team will be very good with a true #1 option and the "Robin" he never had in Mayo. I just wish the Lakers were playing well so some of these "fans" would jump ship sooner than later because you know they'll be here in the end whilst denying any of this early season baby-back bitching.

EricaLubarsky · 12-17-2012, 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

I'd much rather have Tyson's 10 points vs Kaman's 15. Tyson's 10 points we're usually alley oops while Tyson's nuts we're in someones face and the crowd would be on their feet cheering. Kaman is shooting fade aways. I want my center elbowing dudes in the face while snagging the ball 12 foot in the air.

What a dumb post.

You can talk about Chandler's amazing defense and I'd be with you. Instead you talk about offense as if Chander's points are more valuable than Kaman's? Points are points. Kaman has enough versatility that he actually has to be guarded. Without a guy like Kidd to throw oops, Chandler would easily be our worst offensive center.

I think you are confusing Chandler on a good team with Kaman on a bad team. People were cheering because Kidd would also throw him timely alley-oops that usually capped or started a run. I doubt that people would be cheering all that hard if Chandler was throwing down a dunk when we were down by 20 against Charlotte.

DevinHarriswillstart · 12-17-2012, 03:03 PM

Not every Mavs discussion has to come back to Tyson Chandler. Get over it already. He. Isn't. Coming. Back. I'd garner that we miss Jkidd more than Chandler, but I don't care because they are no longer Mavericks. I'm fine if people want to criticize these Mavs or talk about making a trade in the near future for an upgrade at certain positions. However, the "should have kept Chandler" crap is the king of moot points. It solves nothing and adds nothing to the conversation. He isn't coming back.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

You lost me at keeping JKidd and Jet.

They are relatively cheap IMO. We have fisher now instead of jkiddo so what is the diff. Jet is questionable...if I can swap mayo for jet I probably do it. But jkiddo instead of fisher?, yea.

CanadianMavsFan · 12-17-2012, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

They are relatively cheap IMO. We have fisher now instead of jkiddo so what is the diff. Jet is questionable...if I can swap mayo for jet I probably do it. But jkiddo instead of fisher?, yea.

Kidd had to be paid MUCH more than Fisher, and he looked like a corpse in the run he got last year. If they hung on to Kidd, they probably would have lost out on 2 of the acquisitions Dallas made. Probably Kaman and maybe Mayo. Did you really want to see the same team as last year? Old, slow, and sans Dirk we would have been just as bad if not worse.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

What a dumb post.

You can talk about Chandler's amazing defense and I'd be with you. Instead you talk about offense as if Chander's points are more valuable than Kaman's? Points are points. Kaman has enough versatility that he actually has to be guarded. Without a guy like Kidd to throw oops, Chandler would easily be our worst offensive center.

I think you are confusing Chandler on a good team with Kaman on a bad team. People were cheering because Kidd would also throw him timely alley-oops that usually capped or started a run. I doubt that people would be cheering all that hard if Chandler was throwing down a dunk when we were down by 20 against Charlotte.

Very dumb retort IMO. I think the poster is correct. Kaman doesn't put nearly the pressure on the defense that Tyson did. Thereis a reason that last year ibaka/Perkins came up to meet jet when he took the pick versus hanging back to try and not allow the oop.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadianMavsFan

Kidd had to be paid MUCH more than Fisher, and he looked like a corpse in the run he got last year. If they hung on to Kidd, they probably would have lost out on 2 of the acquisitions Dallas made. Probably Kaman and maybe Mayo. Did you really want to see the same team as last year? Old, slow, and sans Dirk we would have been just as bad if not worse.

Keeping jkiddo after letting Tyson go is a don't care, the team is going to be first,round fodder just like last year. Keeping jkiddo and Tyson was prudent IMO. Again I don't think kaman is worth much. Mayo looks like a player, kaman looks like brand, end of the road.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CanadianMavsFan

Kidd had to be paid MUCH more than Fisher, and he looked like a corpse in the run he got last year. If they hung on to Kidd, they probably would have lost out on 2 of the acquisitions Dallas made. Probably Kaman and maybe Mayo. Did you really want to see the same team as last year? Old, slow, and sans Dirk we would have been just as bad if not worse.

Everyone looked like a corpse in the cluster of a season, but still he and chandler and jet I would have been happy to see compete.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

You can't fix stupid. Just let stupid be stupid.

Have to understand the glut of Dallas fans are of the "what have you done for me lately" type. And then another chunk of wahhh Tyson Chandler wahhh Deron Williams.

Here's to Dirk getting better soon. This team will be very good with a true #1 option and the "Robin" he never had in Mayo. I just wish the Lakers were playing well so some of these "fans" would jump ship sooner than later because you know they'll be here in the end whilst denying any of this early season baby-back bitching.

Speak for yourself, you don't have a clue about what a fan is, is not. I see folks that have had seats for 25 years saying the same stuff. When you see stupid, you call it stupid.

oilfieldtrash · 12-17-2012, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

What a dumb post.

You can talk about Chandler's amazing defense and I'd be with you. Instead you talk about offense as if Chander's points are more valuable than Kaman's? Points are points. Kaman has enough versatility that he actually has to be guarded. Without a guy like Kidd to throw oops, Chandler would easily be our worst offensive center.

I think you are confusing Chandler on a good team with Kaman on a bad team. People were cheering because Kidd would also throw him timely alley-oops that usually capped or started a run. I doubt that people would be cheering all that hard if Chandler was throwing down a dunk when we were down by 20 against Charlotte.

Wrong. Points are not just points. Dominating someone on the boards and dunking right in their grill has a profound effect mentally. How many times have you seen the complexion of the whole game change on a single dunk? Why do you think coaches usually call timeouts after big dunks or alley oops?

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

Wrong. Points are not just points. Dominating someone on the boards and dunking right in their grill has a profound effect mentally. How many times have you seen the complexion of the whole game change on a single dunk? Why do you think coaches usually call timeouts after big dunks or alley oops?

Because box scores tell the entire story.

Kante · 12-17-2012, 04:26 PM

Cool, 4 posts...

Dirk's Knee · 12-17-2012, 05:00 PM

Don't forget about getting decent production from 2 rookies; Jae Crowder who's done great filling in for Marion during his missed games and Bernard James who's leading the Mavs in both block per 48 and rebounds per 48. I'd love to see more James playing center when Dirk is in and Kaman/Brand combo off the bench.

EricaLubarsky · 12-17-2012, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilfieldtrash

Wrong. Points are not just points. Dominating someone on the boards and dunking right in their grill has a profound effect mentally. How many times have you seen the complexion of the whole game change on a single dunk? Why do you think coaches usually call timeouts after big dunks or alley oops?

/sigh

ReDirkulous Tyme · 12-17-2012, 07:03 PM

I don't even know where to start.....

Fragism · 12-17-2012, 07:18 PM

Lets trade OJ Mayo for Gerald Green because he dunks

saclare · 12-17-2012, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

Speak for yourself, you don't have a clue about what a fan is, is not. I see folks that have had seats for 25 years saying the same stuff. When you see stupid, you call it stupid.

Please, do enlighten us with your idea of a fan. Better yet, another soap box post about the past!

LonghornDub · 12-17-2012, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

I would have kept dirk, Tyson. Shawn, jkiddo and probably jet. Only tyson got a big bump in salary, everyone else was quite reasonable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

They are relatively cheap IMO. We have fisher now instead of jkiddo so what is the diff. Jet is questionable...if I can swap mayo for jet I probably do it. But jkiddo instead of fisher?, yea.

I'm not quite sure why you're going on about how you "would have kept" Kidd. The Mavs tried to keep Kidd. They made him a very reasonable offer, and he chose to go to New York for the exact same contract.

You're making an irrelevant argument, frankly.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 11:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saclare

Please, do enlighten us with your idea of a fan. Better yet, another soap box post about the past!

I don't have ideas of a "fan". Nor would I ever try to tell someone they are or are not one.

dude1394 · 12-17-2012, 11:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I'm not quite sure why you're going on about how you "would have kept" Kidd. The Mavs tried to keep Kidd. They made him a very reasonable offer, and he chose to go to New York for the exact same contract.

You're making an irrelevant argument, frankly.

As mentioned after Tyson left keeping jkiddo is kinda irrelevant, i understand why they wanted to because their pg play is atrocious. But since this team isnt going anywhere for awhile, it was kinda moot.

After cubes decided to tear it down I would be focusing much more on the draft to be honest, find a way to build up their talent evaluation. The idea of "sorta" competing (which they are doing now) while waiting for a big free agent seems pretty ridiculous IMO. It's neither going for it nor tearing it down. I don't understand it. Maybe cubes/Donnie have some sort of plan but I'm not seeing it.

MavsFTR · 12-17-2012, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

As mentioned after Tyson left keeping jkiddo is kinda irrelevant, i understand why they wanted to because their pg play is atrocious. But since this team isnt going anywhere for awhile, it was kinda moot.

After cubes decided to tear it down I would be focusing much more on the draft to be honest, find a way to build up their talent evaluation. The idea of "sorta" competing (which they are doing now) while waiting for a big free agent seems pretty ridiculous IMO. It's neither going for it nor tearing it down. I don't understand it. Maybe cubes/Donnie have some sort of plan but I'm not seeing it.

Cuban addresses some of that here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/maver...medium=twitter

dude1394 · 12-18-2012, 12:52 AM

Cubes sorta sounds like Jerry jones to me. Marketing his product.

So his strategy is to have dirk play with rent-a-players until a miracle occurs and one of the rent-a-players becomes an all-star. But he won't have them cheap because they won't be signed long-term and they won't be draft picks.

I still don't really get it.

Dirk's Knee · 12-18-2012, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dude1394

Cubes sorta sounds like Jerry jones to me. Marketing his product.

So his strategy is to have dirk play with rent-a-players until a miracle occurs and one of the rent-a-players becomes an all-star. But he won't have them cheap because they won't be signed long-term and they won't be draft picks.

I still don't really get it.

What's the alternative? In reality, teams do not tank seasons as that all but guarantees a long and arduous rebuild process, loss of fan base, reduction in profits which in turn means less money to spend on the team and less chance of good players wanting to come play for your team. The idea that tanking a team and getting a first pick ensures future success is also ridiculous. For every Kobe Bryant there's a Greg Oden. IMHO, we've had one of the best drafts in recent memory with Crowder and James both who have big upside potential. Dallas has historically not done well in the draft and I would be hesitant to put my faith into Dallas consistently acquiring talent in the draft. Cuban spent years overpaying for players who didn't deliver, I don't blame him for trying a different approach at this point. Let's not forget that any other lineup in recent history could not have put up a ~.500 record without Dirk. Let's just all keep our fingers crossed that Dirk's recovery speeds up a bit as I really believe a Mayo/Nowitski combination would be lethal offensively.

EricaLubarsky · 12-18-2012, 10:42 AM

I don't understand how treading water until a gem shows up is any worse than completely dismantling a team and tanking for a first rounder. Obviously Cuban believes more in known talent in the form of free agents than he does in draft picks. Let's not pretend that shooting for a big FA and failing is a risky venture and tanking for draft picks isn't. Dirk's got 2-4 years left in him if he ever comes back the same player. By the time our first rounder from 2013 wears a Dallas uniform that is down to 1-3 years left for Dirk. Then add 2-3 years of development and you're basically rebuilding around the first rounder instead of Dirk.

That also assumes that the draft pick actually works out and I'd put our odds slightly below the average in the lottery. Of the first-overall draft picks between 1998-2008 (who should have the best odds of becoming stars and who have had time to develop that 2-3years), only 4 of 11 (36%) have been allstars (Rose, LeBron, Howard, Ming) and 20% have retired from injury. (Ming/Oden)

And that trend is even more dramatic when you look at the entire lottery. Roughly 18% of picks 1-15 ever make an all-star game and only 50% stay in the league much after their rookie contract. Those odds aren't particularly good, particularly because tanking for worst record would completely decimate our fan base and drive away any of the free agents that might have considered coming here. Also consider that the worst team only got the first pick 4 out of 28 times (14%) in the last 28 years, and 2/19 (10.5%) since 1994 (when the odds were improved), it's not even a sure thing that a team that tanks will even get a first-overall, despite having a 25% statistical chance.

All that bad mojo only gets us a 25% chance of first overall (11% historically) and a first-overall pick only pans out roughly 36% of the time. Is that a good gamble compared to trying to keep Mayo and securing a bigger FA this summer or pulling a big trade at the deadline?

number of all-stars in the lottery by year
2008- 3/15 (20%) Rose 1st, Westbrook 4th, Love 5th,
2007- 1/15 (7%) Durant 2nd
2006- 2/15 (13%) Aldridge 2nd, Roy 6th
2005- 2/15 (13%) Paul 4th, Deron 3rd, Bynum 10th
2004- 2/15 Howard 1st, Deng 7th
2003- 5/15 (33%) Lebron 1st, Carmelo 3rd, Bosh 4th, Wade 5th, Kaman 6th
2002- 3/15 (20%) Ming 1st, Stoudamire 9th, Butler 10th
2001- 2/15 (13%) Gasol 3rd, Johnson 10th
2000- 0/15 (0%)
1999- 5/15 (33%) Brand 1st, Francis 2nd, Davis 3rd, Hamilton 7th, Marion 9th
1998- 4/15 (27%) Jamison 4th, Carter 5th, Dirk 9th, Pierce 10th

Only 18% (29/165) of players from the last 11 lottery drafts have gone on to appear in even one allstar game.Even in the two best years in recent memory ('99 and '03) lottery teams only had a 1/3 c hance of securing an all-star.So even if we were to secure the worst record, we'd only have a 25% chance (11% historically) to secure a first-overall pick and first overall picks have only panned out 40% of the time. Of course with the worst record, we'd be guaranteed a lottery pick but those only pan out at about a rate of 18% historically (1998-2008) and EVEN IF we did secure a future all-star, the likelihood that they'd reach that level before Dirk retires is minuscule.

1) Tanking basically gives up on Dirk because it depends on draft picks that will take time, while playing the free-agent lottery is just as risky but may give us a chance during Dirk's career

2) Tanking for worst record only gives us a 25% chance (10.5% historically with current odds) of drafting the first-overall guy who has a 36% chance of being an allstar and/or a lottery pick who have only panned out 18% of the time.

3) Tanking destroys the brand, alienates fans and leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouths-- including FAs that have finally warmed to Dallas.

DevinHarriswillstart · 12-18-2012, 11:17 AM

The Knicks at home got their asses kicked last night by the Houston Rockets. Funny how different things look when your lone star is out.

Budapest Maverick · 12-18-2012, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavsFTR

Cuban addresses some of that here:

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/maver...medium=twitter

“But you won’t see us like some teams have where you win 41 games for three straight years. Then, ‘Oh, this is the year,’ but nothing’s really changed. You won’t see us there.”

Those words are music to my ears.

SMC0007 · 12-18-2012, 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

“But you won’t see us like some teams have where you win 41 games for three straight years. Then, ‘Oh, this is the year,’ but nothing’s really changed. You won’t see us there.”

Those words are music to my ears.

Yes, and people around here should know by now! But I guess there are fans that can't see the forest thru the trees.