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Old 03-22-2023, 10:47 PM   #1
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Default Mavs off-season and draft 2023 thread

Because why not

2.4% chance of keeping our first rounder and no second rounder so?there?s a chance

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Old 03-25-2023, 07:04 AM   #2
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If we lose out won?t it be top 10 pick?
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Old 03-25-2023, 08:20 AM   #3
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Teams 9-14 in the lottery have the same amount of losses. Even if Mavs managed to get 9th, could still land 11 and convey the pick.

The good news is they are tanking organically. That?s how bad the team is.
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Old 03-25-2023, 11:04 AM   #4
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As I stated in another post? if we have the 10th worst record the only way we don?t keep our pick is if one of the teams with the 11th - 14th worst record leapfrogs us for a top 4 pick.

If we?re tied with another team, for example for the 10th / 11th worst records, and neither team moves up the lottery, a coin flip determines who gets the earlier pick.

Just tank baby.

We don?t have a 2.6% chance of keeping our pick?. Depending on our record, it is much closer to 80%.
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Old 03-25-2023, 11:21 AM   #5
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Assuming no ties:

14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4) - current position
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)

=====================================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

Of course, if we somehow end up keeping our pick (1-10), we still owe the Knicks 2024.

The worst possible scenario in my opinion is that we lose this pick to the Knicks, have no 1st/2nd round picks at all, lose talent this offseason, and still owe 2029 to the Nets unprotected so even if we tank, we can't keep that pick.

Best solution: tank hard to keep the pick, draft a big or defensive wing, SnT Kyrie or Luka for some role players and maybe a star-ish player, and get Luka some counseling to take care of his personal issues.

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Old 03-25-2023, 11:05 PM   #6
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I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?


Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.
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Old 03-26-2023, 02:46 PM   #7
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If lose all games left. We should get top 8 pick right? Need lose out!!!
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Old 03-26-2023, 02:57 PM   #8
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If lose all games left. We should get top 8 pick right? Need lose out!!!
They lucked into Dirk and Luka

I doubt they draft anyone even at 8 through 10 who will be a difference maker

FO has proven to be inept at roster building
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Old 03-26-2023, 05:30 PM   #9
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Mavs are 10th after that loss. At ?best? they finish 9th. 8th is probably too tough to get with 7 games left. 9th I?d feel better about staying top 10.

Now what do they do with it? Probably nothing that would result in a positive but at least it doesn?t go to NY. I have no faith in Cuban.
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Old 03-26-2023, 05:51 PM   #10
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Nico hit on his first pick, and my preference would be he use the pick unless we?re getting Mark Williams or Bam Adebayo in return. We need young hungry players on rookie contracts.
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Old 03-26-2023, 06:58 PM   #11
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Wishlist:

1) Jarace Walker
2) Dereck Lively
3) Cason Wallace
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Old 03-26-2023, 07:17 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Dallas41 View Post
I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?


Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.
1 play in game does nothing for this team too. Wasted season. Losing the pick by trying to prolong the misery woukd be cherry on top.
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Old 03-26-2023, 09:23 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallas41 View Post
I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?


Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.

Dallas needs to make the 24-year-old?s partnership with Kyrie Irving work immediately. The superstar duo needs to work out the kinks on offense and play with max effort on the defensive end. That is the first key to breaking out of their slump. The Mavericks should also be in the market for a leader that can quarterback the defense next season.
Looking at the draft it seems loaded and we can?t live in this fantasy that Luka Kyrie is going to maximize together defensively. A play in game or missing the playoffs is not going to be the difference in whether Kyrie stays.

There won?t be a magic turnaround if they somehow got to a series either. This team is what they are. People said the same thing about Brooklyn. If they just get to a series they can upset a team. And they got swept instead.
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Old 03-26-2023, 09:56 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Melonhead View Post
Looking at the draft it seems loaded and we can?t live in this fantasy that Luka Kyrie is going to maximize together defensively. A play in game or missing the playoffs is not going to be the difference in whether Kyrie stays.

There won?t be a magic turnaround if they somehow got to a series either. This team is what they are. People said the same thing about Brooklyn. If they just get to a series they can upset a team. And they got swept instead.
100%. This is what we are. It's going to be a long offseason soon with lots of movement. Replacing Kyrie and Wood, finding a big. Praying Luka doesn't eat even worse when hea depressed. Waiting around all summer for Our FO to make an attempt to unfuck themselves.
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Old 03-26-2023, 09:59 PM   #15
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Luka suspended a game

Should help

Or maybe not
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Old 03-26-2023, 11:00 PM   #16
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Mavs will manage to convey the pick at 11 because our FO doesn't understand how this all works.
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Old 03-26-2023, 11:26 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
Luka suspended a game

Should help

Or maybe not

Good. He needs a lot more of this to learn how immature he is.
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Old 03-27-2023, 10:58 AM   #18
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Mavs have a tough schedule to end it. It would really suck to come down to the game against San Antonio as our must lose to solidify a top-10 pick.

Big time matchups against the Pacers and Bulls will be the most important. HAVE to think the Jazz can win another 2-3 with Spurs, Nets, and Lakers x 2 left, but it looks like they are going the injury report route for tanking with some sus injuries/Outs.

Bulls and Lakers the true threats to drop more games than Mavs and drop down in standings. Will be a super intriguing end to this season either way lol
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Old 03-27-2023, 01:40 PM   #19
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===========TANK STANDINGS=========
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)

================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick

================STANDINGS================
7th - Washington/Indiana. -3.0 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana. -3.0 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Bulls +0.5games
12th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games
13th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games
14th - Thunder/Raptors/Hawks +1.0 games

We are within 0.5 games of moving up to 9th in draft odds. Sadly, we are also only one game back for 14th. (11th-14th would almost certainly lose us the pick). 7th/8th is almost statistically impossible with seven (7) games left.

If Mavs went 0-7 and Pacers/Wizards went 4-3 it could happen.

Pacers are 2-5 in last 7 and play the Bucks, Thunder, Cavs, and NYK twice
Wizards are 2-5 in last 7 too and play the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks and Heat.

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Old 03-28-2023, 11:14 PM   #20
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With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.
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Old 03-29-2023, 12:31 AM   #21
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With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.
OKC sat SGA. God, what I wouldn?t do to have Presti as our GM.
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Old 03-29-2023, 09:43 AM   #22
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With okc loss Mavs drop to 12 in draft position.
Wrong, OKC owns the tie breaker. And they likely sat SGA as the front end of a B2B. OKC would be foolish not to start getting some playoff experience for SGA, who I think is knocking at the door of being a top player in the league. They already have Chet coming next year with plenty of draft capital. Don't see them punting this season, though I could easily be wrong.

Edit: btw, wish our FO could see the value in grabbing really productive college players in the 2nd. Isaiah Joe has been killing it and his shooting alone would have found him a role here. I'm an Arkansas homer, but that's a couple of times now the Mavs should have taken the obvious pick, with Bobby Portis being the other time.

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Old 03-29-2023, 11:49 AM   #23
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Wrong, OKC owns the tie breaker. And they likely sat SGA as the front end of a B2B.
they could just as easily land at 12 now that they are tied with okc, nba does coin flips or a drawing for tiebreakers, not head to head records
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Old 03-29-2023, 12:01 PM   #24
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they could just as easily land at 12 now that they are tied with okc, nba does coin flips or a drawing for tiebreakers, not head to head records
Pretty sure that was only for top 10? I could be wrong...

Edit: yep, I stand corrected. Looks like they do it through all 14 lottery picks. Call me grumpy, but really fucking stupid they apply one way of tie breaking for playoffs and another for this...no consistency, though I guess their thought was it might detract tanking, which you'd have to reallllly convince me it does anything to that effect.

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Old 03-29-2023, 11:23 PM   #25
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Jazz win
Bulls lose

Both teams are half game ahead in draft order.
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Old 03-30-2023, 02:04 PM   #26
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They lucked into Dirk and Luka

I doubt they draft anyone even at 8 through 10 who will be a difference maker

FO has proven to be inept at roster building
Incredibly true.. Not sure why an inept FO and owner expects fans to stick with a complete rebuild if they trade Luka as Erica and others are asking for. I would follow Luka to another team and celebrate when he wins a ring elsewhere. F Cuban et al
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Old 04-02-2023, 03:40 PM   #27
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https://tankathon.com/

This might be my only Mavs joy these days
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Old 04-02-2023, 04:49 PM   #28
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Bulls win today.

If Mavs lose to bulls very good chance to get 10 spot in the draft.
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Old 04-02-2023, 04:54 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Melonhead View Post
Bulls win today.

If Mavs lose to bulls very good chance to get 10 spot in the draft.
Tonight is a must lose against the Hawks. Powell is starting again, so I think they get it.
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Old 04-02-2023, 08:26 PM   #30
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===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
6th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
7th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
12th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
13th - Wolves +2.0 games
14th - =Raptors/Hawks +2.5 games

BUMP

Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 04-02-2023 at 08:28 PM.
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Old 04-03-2023, 06:36 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
===========TANK STANDINGS=========
15th/16th are still technically possible, but unlikely
14th - 2.4% of keeping pick (all top 4)
13th - 4.79% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
12th - 7.12% of keeping the pick (all top 4)
11th - 9.41% chance of keeping pick (all top 4)
------------------climb the ladder-------------------
10th - 79.78% chance of keeping our pick (13.88% chance of a top 4)
------------------tank/fall further--------------------
9th - 96.89% chance of keeping our pick (20.27% chance of a top 4)
8th - 99.6% chance of keeping our pick (28.9% chance of a top 4)
7th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (31.9% chance of a top 4)
6th - 100% chance of keeping our pick (35.2% chance of a top 4)


================TIE SCENARIOS=====================
-----------10/11/12 tie - 32.10% chance of keeping pick
-----------10/11 tie - 44.6% chance of keeping pick
-----------9/10 tie - 88.34% chance of keeping pick


================STANDINGS================
6th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
7th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
8th - Washington/Indiana/Orlando. -2.5 games (unlikely)
9th - Jazz -0.5games
10th - MAVS
11th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
12th - Thunder/Bulls +1.5games
13th - Wolves +2.0 games
14th - =Raptors/Hawks +2.5 games

BUMP
Must get 9th over the jazz. Nba should help us get that wibbley wobbly guy if get 8. Luka - kyrie and him. That would be an nba dream. Not him going Detroit or spurs. KEEP LOSING!!!
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Old 04-03-2023, 06:39 AM   #32
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Crap. Just saw Utah schedule. Tough. They might lose out!!!!!
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Old 04-03-2023, 11:21 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Dallas41 View Post
I agree 💯 with this

Should the mavs tank?


Tanking does not solve any of the team?s problems. Yes, they could add a top-ten pick to their roster, but he would likely need multiple years to develop. The pressure is on the Mavericks to win now. They cannot wait or Luka Doncic will be wearing a different uniform.
It's not like the Mavs don't have a lot of dead weight on the roster to let a top 10 pick develop. Who knows who might fall. They could probably bring in a couple of players from the draft if they had the picks.

How many of the following would you want back. I'd like to keep wood but seems not in the cards.

Powell - FA

Wood- FA - Any value in S&T if not returning?

Bullock, Bertans, THJ - Maybe Bertans dead weight but not other 2 All 3 should be shopped for similar caliber players to improve defense in frontcourt

McGee - Hopefully, add in to trade to help match salary

Frank N. - like him but he didn't improve

Pinson - don't get why he sucks up roster psot

Morris - Bye Bye
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Old 04-03-2023, 11:25 AM   #34
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Per Shams: Mavs are considering sitting Luka and Kyrie for the remaining games.

Tank. Hope you get your draft pick. I think Shams said they can package 3 future first rounders to try and improve the roster?
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Old 04-03-2023, 11:32 AM   #35
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Keep Kyrie, Holiday, Pinson, and Powell.

Let Morris and Frank walk.

Try to S&T Wood. Try to trade THJ, Bertans, and McGee.
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Old 04-03-2023, 11:44 AM   #36
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Yes...let's keep Dwight Powell.

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Old 04-03-2023, 12:17 PM   #37
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Yes...let's keep Dwight Powell.

Right. F DP. Zero interest in him, Bullock, Maxi, and THJ.
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Old 04-03-2023, 12:23 PM   #38
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RE-SIGN OR SNT?
Kyrie Irving
Dwight Powell
Christian Wood
Frank Ntilikina
Markieff Morris
Theo Pinson
Justin Holiday
McKinley Wright

KEEP OR SHOP?
Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Davis Bertans
Reggie Bullock
Maxi Kleber
Javale McGee
Josh Green
Jaden Hardy
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Old 04-03-2023, 02:11 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky View Post
RE-SIGN OR SNT?
Kyrie Irving
Dwight Powell
Christian Wood
Frank Ntilikina
Markieff Morris
Theo Pinson
Justin Holiday
McKinley Wright

KEEP OR SHOP?
Luka Doncic
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Davis Bertans
Reggie Bullock
Maxi Kleber
Javale McGee
Josh Green
Jaden Hardy
Do you want to know what we want to happen or what we think will happen?
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Old 04-03-2023, 03:58 PM   #40
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I get the instinct to get rid of Powell (and Pinson, for that matter). I think some continuity is important and those two specifically are culture guys and borderline assistant coaches that any team could use. If they re-sign for the minimum as 12th/13th man, I'd like them back.
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