Senate & House Under Obama

[Janett_Reno]

The Oregonian now projects that state house speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) in their Senate race. Merkley now leads by 4000 votes and most of the remaining votes are from heavily Democratic Multnomah County.

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) leads challenger Al Franken by 570 votes out of 2.5 million cast. There will be a recount, which could take weeks according to Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie.

Alaska has another Senate race whose winner is in doubt. At present, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) holds a 4000-vote lead over Anchorage mayor Mark Begich. However, 4% of the precincts haven't reported yet and there are 70,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. A Stevens victory could have national implications, however, as Democrats will likely try to expel the convicted senator from the Senate if he wins and Republicans would be forced to make a difficult vote on the expulsion motion. If he is expelled, there will be a special election to fill the seat and many people expect Sarah Palin to run and win, giving her four years of national exposure before a possible 2012 run for the White House. Not all Republicans are happy at seeing someone with such high unfavorables and who was repeatedly mocked as a lightweight with expensive taste in designer clothing becoming the de facto party leader. Once you have acquired a bad public image, it is hard to shake it. Just ask President Quayle.

Finally, in Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) beat Jim Martin(D) in the Senate race there, but may not have gotten the requisite 50% of the vote, forcing a runoff there in December.All in all, the Democrats still have some opportunities to raise their Senate totals to the 57-58 seat range, but getting a filibuster-proof 60 now seems out of the question unless Obama appoints to the cabinet one or more Republican senators from states with Democratic governors.


The House

While the Democrats failed to pick up their hoped for 30 seats, they did get more than 20 and will likely end up with 255-260 seats in the House. Nevertheless, a number of seats are undecided. One of them is the CA-04 open seat being vacated by John Doolittle, who is under investigation on various corruption charges. Currently Tom McClintock (R) is leading Charlie Brown (D) by 451 votes, but there are tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted in this R+11 district. In LA-04, there will be a runoff Dec. 6th between Paul Carmouche (D) and John Fleming (R). In MD-01, Democrat Frank Kratovil is ahead of Republican Andy Harris by 915 votes, but there are 25,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. in OH-15, Steve Stivers (R)is leading Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 321 votes, so a recount is likely. In VA-05, challenger Tom Perrillo (D) has a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode (R). A recount is assured there. Finally, in WA-08, incumbent Dave Reichert (R) has a 1900-vote lead over Internet darling Darcy Burner (D), but absentee ballots are still coming in and could change the result. Swing State Project has more.


Exit Polls
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Obama won among
men (49% to 48%)
women (56% to 43%)
blacks (95% to 5%)
latinos (66% to 31%)
asians (62% to 35%)
whites (43% to 55%) This is normal for democrats
18-29 year-olds 66% to 31%
losing seniors 52% to 46%
He swept every educational category as well as Catholics and Jews but lost Protestants 54% to 45%

Al Gore
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In the year 2000, George W. Bush won 54 percent of the white vote and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote. But Al Gore won 90 percent of the black vote and thus topped Bush in the total popular vote." Democrats at the national level consistently win fewer than 50 percent of white votes.

John Kerry
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88% of the black vote went to John Kerry.
Latinos voted 53 percent for Kerry.
Asians were 56 percent for Mr. Kerry

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I posted the black vote because it seems in the forum it is alot of talk about the black vote. It was years ago under a republican president when blacks voted republican and many things was promised to them and when they help elect him, he did the complete opposite and this was when the black vote left the republican party. The republicans also took the latino vote for granted and would try to scare them with Castro. Now remember, alot of the above is back lash against Bush/Cheney/Rummy and a "R" by your name but how long could this last? You do not throw the latino vote away. If Obama brings in latinos in his adm, this does well within the latino community. Then the black community sees what party had a woman and a black man running and it was in the democrat party. Also independents, i need to get a poll on how independents voted in this election. The republicans did hold pretty solid and strong in the south. Deep south but i know it must be fear within the party that GA was even as close as it was. Now if you do not know about the state of VA, you need to read it's history and for them to vote for a black man, this was history in the making and especially from VA. Now this is where the gop should be in bad fear as VA went blue and it looks like the state under it in NC has went Obama. See where this is creeping into the south?

Other things i find interesting, how many black people live in IA and MT? This must be very scarry for the gop party. MT is out west in republican country and did Obama even go there to speak? MT has been electing some dems here lately and look how close Obama came here. If it wasn't McCain in AZ and another person, it makes you wonder, what about AZ? IN was amazing and i feel the young people really helped in this state. This is as red as a state gets and it went blue. Joe the part time plummer, country music artist, wanting to run for mayor did not help in OH. Again guess what happened? Let's scare the country. Since the Iraq scare tactic this adm pulled, now the scare tactic isn't working. I even see today where Mitch E Poo McConnell is blaming W Bush and who is Mitch E Poo to be talking? He was as much or more of a puppet and neocon than W was. What a turn coat. Hey, if you stood by rubber stamping everything, now why blame W and Cheney when Mitch was was part of this adm and maybe the main or one of the main ones. On sates like IA and NH they really do think for themselfs and more independent thinkers and really listen and weigh the issues out.

Who takes the gop party over? Not sure but i feel Mitch is way to weak and a mouse. Newt would like to and he may possibly. Saran Palin maybe want's top spot in 2012 but it won't be easy with some gop not liking her. It is also talks of Romney already in 2012. The democrats need to do the best they can and add to what they have now and sweep down in more states. If the dems mess up and turn out to be another "W", then they will get kicked out in 4 years. I don't see this happening.

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Grading The National Polls: Rasmussen In First, Gallup And Zogby Last

Most of these polls were on target with Obama winning by five to seven points, and quite a few of them had him in the neighborhood of 52% support. The first prize goes to Rasmussen for nailing the 52%-46% figure exactly. Research 2000 is close behind with their 51%-46% figure. Gallup was way off in giving Obama an 11-point win, but they did have Obama's support at just over the true result of 52%. And Zogby also gave Obama an 11-point lead, at a 54% level of support.

Also, the final Pew poll allocated its undecideds based on demographics and answers to key issue questions. Their prediction: Obama 52%, McCain 46%.