Nellie Brainwashes Cuban--Mavs Championship Chances Diminished

[MavKikiNYC]

Troubling persepctive articulated in Cuban's quotes. Was hoping he might trump or at least counter-balance Nellie's oft-failed philosophy. No longer sure.

Winners Know, a Great Defense Just Can't Be Beat
By BUSTER OLNEY

The Tampa Bay defense that routed Oakland in Super Bowl XXXVII will be copied so often in the years to come that you might start looking for a paperback edition. Other teams will place a greater emphasis on finding speed pass rushers like Simeon Rice, swift linebackers like Derrick Brooks and aggressive and versatile cornerbacks like Ronde Barber.

In crushing the Raiders' No. 1-ranked offense, the Buccaneers reinforced the theory that defense wins in football — and in most sports, for that matter.

Fans prefer offense, leagues manipulate rules to promote offense and the greatest stars are offensive machines. But many championships are built on defense, which some executives find to be a far more reliable foundation than offense.

"I was hearing No. 1 offense against No. 1 defense before the Super Bowl, and I was thinking, `If this was like baseball, you know who is going to win,' " said Brian Cashman, the Yankees' general manager.

Rod Thorn, president and general manager of the Nets, said, "Good defensive teams don't let good offensive teams do what they want to do."

The Yankees won the World Series four times in five seasons from 1996 through 2000, including three successive titles, with good fielding and strong pitching. Many rival players believe reliever Mariano Rivera was single-handedly responsible for the Yankees' winning four titles, rather than one or two. When the Yankees' string of titles ended in 2001, they were beaten by a team — the Arizona Diamondbacks — "who pitched better than we did, and had better fielding," Cashman said.

"We lost that series because of poor pitching, and definitely poor fielding," he said.

The best offensive players usually do not get as far in the playoffs as the best pitchers. The last time the American League's most valuable player appeared in the World Series was in 1990, when Rickey Henderson played for Oakland, and there have been two National League M.V.P.'s in the World Series since 1991 — Chipper Jones with Atlanta in 1999 and Barry Bonds with San Francisco last season. The last N.L. home run champion to play on a championship team was Philadelphia's Mike Schmidt, in 1980. Reggie Jackson, with Oakland, was the last A.L. home run leader to win a title, in 1973.

On the other hand, six Cy Young award winners have pitched in the World Series since 1990, from Atlanta's Tom Glavine in 1991 to the Yankees' Roger Clemens and Arizona's Randy Johnson in 2001.

The Chicago Bulls won six National Basketball Association championships, driven by the greatness of Michael Jordan. But the most menacing aspect of that team, Thorn says, was the defense played by Jordan and forwards Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant. "They had the best in the league — Scottie and Michael," Thorn said, "and they had Grant, one of the best. They went all over the place, sideline to sideline."

The Bulls supplanted the Detroit Pistons, a championship team that played a physical, pounding style of defense. The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers preceded the Pistons and the Bulls, each manned by excellent inside defenders like Robert Parish and Kevin McHale and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, superlative rebounders in Larry Bird and Magic Johnson and smothering perimeter defenders like Dennis Johnson and Michael Cooper.

Basketball coaches preach the value of defense, believing it to be the most consistent weapon, and playing defense presents a more predictable action. It is simpler to throw or catch a fastball than to hit one, to rebound than to shoot 3-point shots. Pippen had his share of bad shooting nights with the Bulls, for example, but with his athleticism, height and long arms, he presented uniform problems for the players he guarded.

"There are lot of little reasons" defense wins championships, Thorn said. "But the basic reason is you have more control over what you do on defense."

Mark Cuban, the owner of the Dallas Mavericks, the highest-scoring team in the N.B.A., wrote in an e-mail message yesterday that he felt the "media perception of defense wins championships is misguided."

"Whether it is football or basketball," he wrote, "your ability to manage your salary costs and approach getting the biggest bang for your dollar has far more impact on the quality of your team than whether you go for defense or offense."

In basketball, Cuban wrote: "What happened in the past has absolutely no impact on how teams win in the future. The luxury tax and zone defense rules have changed how teams are built."

There has been a longstanding belief in the National Football League that championships are built around quarterbacks, a hypothesis supported by Bart Starr and Bob Griese, Roger Staubach and Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Steve Young and Troy Aikman and John Elway. Those eight combined to win 20 of the first 33 Super Bowls.

"I have never bought the theory that defense wins championships," said Ernie Accorsi, the Giants' general manager. "I think defense makes you competitive, but I also know we're in a passing era, we're in a scoring era. Dick Butkus didn't win a championship, and John Elway was in five Super Bowls. Great quarterbacks win championships."

With the salary cap leveling the playing field, the last three Super Bowls have been won by teams with unheralded quarterbacks: Baltimore's Trent Dilfer, New England's Tom Brady and Tampa Bay's Brad Johnson. Brady performed exceptionally, while Dilfer and Johnson were functional.

Possessing a superstar quarterback may have once been a prerequisite for a championship, but now it means devoting more salary-cap room to a player who typically is at greater risk for injury than any other.

"Tampa Bay had a pretty good defense," Accorsi said, "and they maximized the offensive talent they had. Balance is the answer."

Two of the last three Super Bowls have been won by exceptional defenses; the Baltimore Ravens dominated the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV. But in the last 20 years, teams that led the N.F.L. in scoring have won more Super Bowls (six) than those with the highest-ranked defenses (five).

"You go back to the St. Louis Super Bowls — they won it, or got there, with their offense," said Tom Heckert, the player personnel director for the Philadelphia Eagles. "You can have a good defense, but the bottom line is, you still have got to be able to score points to win those games."

But the Eagles' strength has been defense. When Philadelphia drafts in April, Heckert said, "If there are two guys with similar ability, one with the offense and the other with the defense, we'd go with the defense."

Tampa Bay emphasized defense and was repeatedly frustrated in the postseason before this year because the Buccaneers lacked a useful offense. But that changed this season under their new coach, Jon Gruden.

"I just really felt that we had a world championship defense the second day of minicamp," Gruden said in San Diego. "I've never seen anything like this defense. I knew we were improving on offense. With the way our quarterback has played, I knew he'd capitalize."

And the Buccaneers re-established defense as a reliable tool for success.

[dude1394]

What I read from here is that in the nfl QBs do win championships, not all of the time, but most of the time. And QBs don't play defense.

I think the guy in this article who said you have to had an adequate defense was right on. I still look at miami, denver, detroit. Great defenses, but they won't win squat.

[Chiwas]

It's as easy as: in order to win a championship in the NFL, NBA or MLB, you need to have offense and defense. Both.

I'm more worried about the Mark's thoughts. your ability to manage your salary costs and approach getting the biggest bang for your dollar has far more impact on the quality of your team than whether you go for defense or offense."

In basketball, Cuban wrote: "What happened in the past has absolutely no impact on how teams win in the future. The luxury tax and zone defense rules have changed how teams are built."

Zone defense is still a defense (and ours isn't as effective as it was in the first month). The luxury tax doesn't play once you have expended (or generated)it.

[madape]

Basketball is not football. Can't people get that through their thick skulls? In basketball, a good offense ALWAYS has the advantage over a good defense. Of course it is important to play good defense, but it is also important to rebound well, keep turnovers at a minimum, and make your free throws. But all of this doesn't matter if you can't play offense. In the NBA, you cannot win without offense... period. There will never be a team like the Ravens in the NBA that relies solely on defense. And it is a mistake to make too many sacrifices on the offensive end to make up for deficincies on the defensive end.

I agree the Mavs need to step up their defensive effort, particularly from the perimeter, in order to increase their chances of winning the title. Personally, I think they are good enough to win it now, but if they are looking to increase their chances, perimeter defense is the area that has the most room for improvement.

Fortunately for the Mavs, defense in the NBA isn't too complicated. Guards and swingmen don't need as much extraordinary physical skill as most poeple think. In my opinion, perimeter defense in the NBA is more about preparation and focus than actual physical ability. The only real attributes needed are a little lateral quickness and good court awareness. I think all of our players have those abilities, it's just a matter of getting them focused and ready to play. There is no need to force playing time to perimeter players that are terrible offensivly, but who happen to be pretty good on the defensive end. Besides, defense is pretty easy to learn. We've already seen a VAST improvement over last year, with no real change in player personell. This change has come thanks mostly to an offseason that focused on defense. If we continue to give it attention, we will continue to get better. There is no need to blow up the team, or even ration minutes away from guys like Finley or VanExel. They are capable of playing just as good of defense as guys like Raja Bell... but Raja Bell will never be able to touch the offensive skills of his more talented teammates.

Improvements on the defensive end should come much easier than improvements on the offensive end. Therefore, the Mav's strategy to aquire incredibly gifted offensive players over good defensive ones is the right one. Not only are offensive skills more important in the NBA, they are also harder to learn.

In the NFL, the popular media term "defense wins championships" might hold a little validity (but when considering the dynasties of the Coyboys, 49ers, Packers and Rams, I'm not even sure if THAT holds true). But when referencing the NBA, this is simply a misguided catchphrase uttered by moronic football fans who don't understand the nature of the sport.

[dude1394]

<< Basketball is not football. Can't people get that through their thick skulls? In basketball, a good offense ALWAYS has the advantage over a good defense. Of course it is important to play good defense, but it is also important to rebound well, keep turnovers at a minimum, and make your free throws. But all of this doesn't matter if you can't play offense. In the NBA, you cannot win without offense... period. There will never be a team like the Ravens in the NBA that relies solely on defense. And it is a mistake to make too many sacrifices on the offensive end to make up for deficincies on the defensive end.

I agree the Mavs need to step up their defensive effort, particularly from the perimeter, in order to increase their chances of winning the title. Personally, I think they are good enough to win it now, but if they are looking to increase their chances, perimeter defense is the area that has the most room for improvement.

Fortunately for the Mavs, defense in the NBA isn't too complicated. Guards and swingmen don't need as much extraordinary physical skill as most poeple think. In my opinion, perimeter defense in the NBA is more about preparation and focus than actual physical ability. The only real attributes needed are a little lateral quickness and good court awareness. I think all of our players have those abilities, it's just a matter of getting them focused and ready to play. There is no need to force playing time to perimeter players that are terrible offensivly, but who happen to be pretty good on the defensive end. Besides, defense is pretty easy to learn. We've already seen a VAST improvement over last year, with no real change in player personell. This change has come thanks mostly to an offseason that focused on defense. If we continue to give it attention, we will continue to get better. There is no need to blow up the team, or even ration minutes away from guys like Finley or VanExel. They are capable of playing just as good of defense as guys like Raja Bell... but Raja Bell will never be able to touch the offensive skills of his more talented teammates.

Improvements on the defensive end should come much easier than improvements on the offensive end. Therefore, the Mav's strategy to aquire incredibly gifted offensive players over good defensive ones is the right one. Not only are offensive skills more important in the NBA, they are also harder to learn.

In the NFL, the popular media term &quot;defense wins championships&quot; might hold a little validity (but when considering the dynasties of the Coyboys, 49ers, Packers and Rams, I'm not even sure if THAT holds true). But when referencing the NBA, this is simply a misguided catchphrase uttered by moronic football fans who don't understand the nature of the sport. >>



BRAVO!! Well done. You are so correct. In football a team can turn the ball over TWICE and the other team wins!! In basketball that turnover has to happen oh....about 30 times to make that big of an impact.

And for the record... .I think the mavs can win it all this year as well. Either climb aboard or sayonara.

[MavKikiNYC]

Some body should really talk to Rod Thorn about his thick skull.

[MavKikiNYC]

Looking for an online source that lists year-by-year team final offensive and defensive rankings.

Any suggestions?

[madape]

&lt;edit&gt;

[MFFL]

<< Looking for an online source that lists year-by-year team final offensive and defensive rankings.

Any suggestions? >>



Try here.

http://home.rmi.net/~doug/

Happy hunting

[madape]

... and here's a study someone posted on another board

They Say Defense Wins Championships
Dateline: 08/21/97

The proverbial &quot;they&quot; say that Defense Wins Championships.

I really don't know who exactly &quot;they&quot; are that claim this, but &quot;they&quot; are wrong. Or at least &quot;they&quot; should step forward and tell me what &quot;they&quot; mean. Because I really can't tell.

Growing up and playing on a few teams (basketball, football, softball, and, of course, dodge ball), I saw lots of games and lots of teams. I won a few championships and played on a few bad teams, too. But in most of the cases where I saw the best teams, it was offense -- not defense -- that made the teams as good as they were.

There was the basketball team that had a guy who could dunk, who could blow by just about any defender, and who ultimately played college ball. They won our league title because this guy could score. They didn't say that defense wins championships. Only &quot;they&quot; did.

... Who Gets Recruited? ...
On top of that: Who are the players that get recruited for the next level? It sure ain't the guy who sticks to his man like glue, but can't buy a wide open ten footer. It's more likely to be the guy who can break down any defense and has a breakdown about playing defense.

... The King of the Court ...
If you think Michael Jordan is called the greatest basketball player ever because of his defense, then you're probably also wondering what all the fuss about Elvis' death was about since you just saw him at the grocery store handing out free samples of Yoohoo. Nike, McDonalds, Gatorade, and Sportsline are paying Jordan because he can hang in the air, do his taxes, then dunk on Shaquille O'Neal -- not because he can shut down Steve Smith.

... The Fifty Greatest Players ...
You want more? How about this: Of the Fifty Greatest Players in NBA History, only three had career scoring averages under 15 ppg. Of all these players, it is fair to say that only Bill Russell, Dave DeBusschere, and maybe Nate Thurmond made their reputation primarily on defense.

... The 1997 Chicago Bulls ...
But I have heard Defense Wins Championships as much as anyone and I have at least been partially brainwashed by it. I thought I saw the Bulls winning the '97 NBA Title because they turned up the defensive intensity. I know I saw that. Didn't you see it?

I remember Jordan making shot after shot, but I don't remember a single defensive play.

But I also saw Jordan bury his %@!#&amp;! 23rd game winning jumper at the buzzer. And I saw Jordan score 38 points when no defense -- not even the flu -- could stop him from winning Game 5 of the Finals. Funny, I remember Jordan making shot after shot, but I don't remember a single defensive play.

As I remembered Jordan's shots, I thought I could be missing something, so I decided to look at this question in more detail. I really tried to find some evidence that Defense Wins Championships.

... The Basic Study ...
My first thought was to evaluate the number of times the NBA's best defensive team won the title and compare it to the number of times the NBA's best offensive team won the title. If you consider the best defensive team to be the one that allowed the fewest points per game, then this almost never happens, happening only four times since the Celtic dominance of the '60's. On the other hand, the league's highest scoring team has won five times since the Celtic era.

Those who know my work, however, are trying to buzz in and remind me that I typically define the league's best offense and defense by the number of points they score and allow per 100 possessions . I call them offensive and defensive ratings . I also call them a pain to calculate, but I did it all the way back through the 1986 season.

... The Champs Were Most Efficient How Often? ...
Since the 1986 season, the most efficient defensive team has won the title three times. The most efficient offensive team has won the title four times.

If Defense Wins Championships, it certainly helps to have good offense.

... If They'd Only Apply Themselves ...
Still trying to prove myself stupid, I figured I'd go back to the method I outlined in Toying With 'Em. In short, this method says that good teams slack off in a lot of games that they have won by the third quarter, so their numbers aren't as good as they would be if they competed throughout games. As your mom used to tell you, &quot;You could do so much better if you just applied yourself!!&quot; Well, teams do apply themselves in the playoffs, so it seems relevant to look at this measure, which just adjusts teams' offensive and defensive efficiencies by evaluating how much they slacked off in the regular season.

Before I do, let me provide some context. Going back through all the playoff series since 1986, I find that the better defensive team won their playoff series a not-so-whopping 63% of the time. The better offensive team won their playoff series 66% of the time. This still shows no support for the Defense (not Offense) Wins Championship phrase that &quot;they&quot; cling to.

Since 1986, the better defensive team has won 71% of their playoff series. The better offensive team has won 75% of their playoff series.
Now when I determined how much teams slacked off, which I could only do for 5 of the past 12 seasons because I didn't have game by game scores, I saw something of a change. The better defensive team won 71% of their series, an improvement giving evidence to support the notion that teams do turn it up defensively in the playoffs. But, the better offensive team won 75% of their series, which implies that teams also turn it up offensively in the playoffs.

... Really, They Only Got Lazy Defensively ...
Given the rather dim light this placed on &quot;their&quot; mantra, I pulled out one last desperate trick to try to prove &quot;them&quot; right. What my previous method did (I really need a name for it) was assume that teams slacked off equally on defense and on offense. Heck, I don't know if that is right, but I had no basis to think otherwise... until now. Since &quot;they&quot; say Defense Wins Championships, I figured that it must be only the defense that teams slack off on during the regular season, turning it on for the postseason.

And -- whaddya know!! -- Defense Does Win Championships!!! With this adjustment, the better defensive team won 76% of their series and the better offensive team won just 70%.

Still, I think I'll take Michael Jordan over Dikembe Mutombo.

[MavKikiNYC]

Thanks, MFFL. Located that already--goes back to 1988 or so.

Far from elusive, the evidence shows a strong trend toward top defensive teams making the Finals, and a slightly weaker trend toward strong defensive teams as champions.

The notable exceptions are the Laker teams of the last couple of years, and the Rockets 1995 team. The commonality? A superstar low-post player on the order of O'Neal and Olajuwon.

Since, of course, the Mavericks can't even hallucinate that level of offensive and defensive post-play, reservations persist as to their chances for ultimate success.

[madape]

Hmm.. I don't know Kiki. I'm not going to scour statitics on this one, but I do remember the Bulls winning title after title without a true post threat.

I would also like to say that zone defenses may change everything. For the Mavericks this year, it has absolutely taken away any advantage a team has in the post. Players like Mayrice Taylor, who normally would isolate down low, can't against the Mavericks. The way teams are beating the Mavericks is by putting in smaller players who can instead shoot over the zone. The probably outcome is that league-wide, good offensive teams are no longer going to be the ones that pound it inside, but istead be ones who can shoot. I think teams who have put a priority on shooting are going to be the successful ones in the next ten years. That has certainly been the case in this regular season.

[MavKikiNYC]

<< ...I do remember the Bulls winning title after title without a true post threat. >>



True. Instead, they had Jordan.

And the Bulls were also never worse than Top 6 defensively in their championship years.

That was Thorn's point about them having three great defenders, The Dobermans as Tex Winter referred to them--Jordan, Pippen, and Grant; along with a three defensive-oriented post players--Cartwright, Williams, Purdue. I still remember Pippen and Jordan pressuring Magic as he brought the ball up the floor in that first Bulls' championship series, and I hadn't ever seen Magic be controlled that way before.

In the second championship run, Grant was replaced by Rodman, and Cartwright by Longley, who was a physical defender. It was in this second championship run that they had a number 6 defensive ranking* (*for points allowed--you could also look look at FG percentage allowed, point differential and rebound differential, but who has the time, right?), but in the other two years they were #2 and #3.

As for the effect that zone defenses will have, I think it's too early to tell for sure. The Mavericks zone looked more effective earlier in the seaon, but lately it seems like teams have a good feel for where to attack it. Certainly Nellie and Dellie will adjust it, as I noticed Nash cheating over into the sweet spot inside the free throw line to keep Nesterovic from looking for that jumper. But I wouldn't want to rely on teams not being able to adjust quickly to a zone gimmick in the playoffs--teams can make that adjustment easily from game-to-game, or half-to-half even.

The zone has helped the Mavericks improve their defense, but ultimately I don't think it's going to substitute for having solid defenders.

[dude1394]

I also think that zones are changing a lot of the game. Taking shaq for example, it does allow fronting of shaq with help (7'6&quot very close behind him. The kick and trend I am on lately is the rebounding one. Of course this could go straight to being outhustled as well and maybe a perception of a low-post threat beating us but not really a low-post &quot;scoring&quot; threat just a physical play inside.

[Epitome22]

Forget about the Bulls and their stifling defense. Since basketball is such a completly different sport than football allegedly, when was the last time a team won the NBA championship that was weak defensivly? The weakest team I can think of defensivly in the last 12 years were the back to back Rockets championships and they weren't even a bad defensive team, just above average. Defense means plenty in Basketball and Mavericks fans of all should know this. To answer the question of how much defense means in Basketball the Mavericks have the best record in basketball and were one of the best last season yet despite this, few basketball coaches or analysts put much faith in their ability to succeed come playoff time because they are considered a weak defensive team with a soft interior presence. In football, you can win a ring based on defense alone. You can't win a ring based on defense alone in basketbakk, this is true, but you certainly can't based on offense alone either. The phrase &quot;Offense wins games, Defense wins championships&quot; or &quot;Hitting wins games, pitching wins pennants&quot; holds the same validity in Basketball. You can get to the playoffs on scoring ability. You won't gom far in the playoffs however if you can't shut your opponent down.

[LRB]

It should be noted that the Mavs have stayed the highest scoring team in the league this year but added enough defense to be considered one of the top teams statistical wise on the defensive end. The result is the best record in the league so far. We need both offense and defense. I don't think I can remember a championship team in the NBA that didn't have a fairly good balance. Even the Pistons could score points. The Mavs don't have to be the best defensive team to win a championship, but they do need to incorporate a good deal more defense into their playoff run than they did last year. We need more and better balance. Teamwork is the key. We cannot afford to play as a group of individuals, we need to play as a team.

[Chiwas]

<< We need more and better balance. Teamwork is the key. We cannot afford to play as a group of individuals, we need to play as a team. >>

...and not panicky.