Hollinger with the hate crime

[rabbitproof]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/column...ictions-090107

4. Dallas will miss the playoffs

OK, time to try something brave: divining which of the eight teams competing for the seven final playoff spots out West will fall short.

All of the candidates have shown their warts. New Orleans is heavily dependent on one player and has no frontcourt depth. Utah's two best players have been hurt all season, and Boozer might not be back for a long time. Houston only wishes it could be as healthy as Utah, and one if its best players seems like he's tuning out. San Antonio is getting awfully long in the tooth and has a killer schedule the second half of the season. Denver won't have Anthony for a month and is hardly any deeper than New Orleans up front. The Suns aren't all on the same page and have major age issues. Portland is a lightweight on D, and its best player is a bit on the brittle side.

So why Dallas? It's simple -- we can't say anything went horribly wrong for them in the first 35 games. The Mavs have been reasonably healthy, have benefited from an unexpectedly strong performance from Terry and Jason Kidd, and aren't enduring any major dramas at the moment.

And even with everything more or less going right and most of the competition suffering form serious problems, they still can't pull away -- because basically, they just aren't that good. When the other top teams in the West lose, there's usually a good reason -- injuries, schedule, something. Compare that to the Mavs, who had all of their important players healthy and available in Memphis on Sunday and lost by 20. Their once-mighty offense is only 12th in efficiency, largely because only three guys can score -- in fact, their fourth-leading scorer, Kidd, averages only 8.4 points per game.

The bar in the West has been raised high enough that it likely will take 47 wins to get into the playoffs, and I just don't see Dallas getting there. The Mavericks aren't imposing on the court and lack the trade assets to get better. Maybe they'll get a reprieve thanks to another team's injuries, but it's equally likely that they'll be left in the dust by a few of their own. Handicapping the playoff race in the West is a fool's errand, but if I have to pick one team to fall short, it's this one.

[r00k]

I saw someone else say this and I laughed. I think the top three will be the Lakers, Spurs, and Hornets, that is obvious to me. And then there are 6 teams left for the Final 5 seeds. And out of the 6, in a non-biased opinion I think we are the 2nd best. But with Melo out I think we can be the best above of Denver.

Either way it is crazy to put teams like the Blazers, Jazz, and Rockets above us. It is stupid even.

[ghazi]

I don't think the Mavs will miss the playoffs, but what Hollinger says is not farfetchd at all. What has been our major injury? Josh Howard seriously should not count. We've been healthy all year and have only amassed a 21-13 record, 5-9 against +.500 teams, and have had a bunch of nailbiters against bad teams.

The Mavs need to raise their level of play because the competition is about to get better.

[alby]

Normally, I like Hollinger's opinions. However, in this instance--he just needs to stick with typing out numbers on the page, not letters.

[jthig32]

There's a lot of truth in that article. I think our schedule has been one of the five easiest (going by opponents record) as well.

[fluid.forty.one]

ouch

[SMC0007]

As Dirk would say "Obviously".

Without a trade that brings instant chemistry and balanced offense consistently it's pointless to think that if we make the playoffs we stand a chance anyway. I think it's pissing in the wind as to who is left out of the playoffs. Anything can happen and injuries will take a toll on some team. I'm just looking to our future because we got nothing as currently built. Just need to get moving FO, come on.

[fluid.forty.one]

His points don't really back up his thesis. If the point of the article was "Dallas isn't "elite" anymore" or "Dallas will not be a top 5 seed", I could see him having a point.

it's not like the universe is fair and the teams that have been struggling due to injuries will have a perfect 2nd half. Mavs are making the playoffs.

[Dirkadirkastan]

I'll take 19-6 in the last 25, thank you.

[Flacolaco]

and lack the trade assets to get better

Try telling that to anyone around here...

[Murphy3]

Dallas could miss the playoffs. It's that close. It appears that there are 9 teams jockeying for 8 spots. Someone will be the odd man out. So why not the Mavs? Personally, I don't think they'll miss the playoffs, but not much about this team blows me away.

[erdubya]

Hollinger hasn't been paying attention to the Mavs. It's clear. Exactly what IS the criteria to be on the ESPN payroll anyway??

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Dallas could miss the playoffs. It's that close. It appears that there are 9 teams jockeying for 8 spots. Someone will be the odd man out. So why not the Mavs? Personally, I don't think they'll miss the playoffs, but not much about this team blows me away.

Dirk Nowitzki.

Honestly, this team might be bad enough that 'just making the playoffs' will be the season's storyline. I don't know. What I do know is that I trust Dirk to carry us into the playoffs waaay more than I would trust Tracy McGrady or Roy.

[joemoeschmoe]

One of his points is valid. We only have 3 people that can score consistently.

After that its all downhill. His most basic argument seems to be injuries. How about the fact that JET, Kidd, and especially Dirk have a long history of missing few games to injury. Big surprise - Houston has been plagued with injuries and Ron Artest hasn't made them better. Millsap might be better than Boozer and Williams has played for a long time now.

"still can't pull away"? BS. We've been 19-6 since the 2-7 start. To hit 47 wins we need to be 26-22 over the rest of the season. That seems more than likely.

"When the other top teams in the West lose, there's usually a good reason" - Wrong, bad teams beat fully equipped good teams all the time. Its the NBA, not college, pretty much all the guys on the court can play and can have very good or bad games.

Since when is having no major dramas a bad thing?

In the end, this prediction can only work in the Mavs favor though. The lower the expectations the better. Bring on the hate.

[BGMaverick9]

The Lakers should be ok so there are 8 teams fighting for 7 spots.
Most people are going to say Utah, NO, San Antonio, and Houston will find ways to get in for whatever reason. That leaves Denver, Portland and us left to fight for two spots. Melo's injury is definitely going to hurt their cause but they're not dead yet. Portland is a young team and you have to wonder if they can hold up an entire season under the pressure. Dallas is Dallas.

When he looks at those 3 teams and looks at the situations past and present, it's easy to pick on Dallas.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by joemoeschmoe

One of his points is valid. We only have 3 people that can score consistently.

After that its all downhill. His most basic argument seems to be injuries. How about the fact that JET, Kidd, and especially Dirk have a long history of missing few games to injury. Big surprise - Houston has been plagued with injuries and Ron Artest hasn't made them better. Millsap might be better than Boozer and Williams has played for a long time now.

"still can't pull away"? BS. We've been 19-6 since the 2-7 start. To hit 47 wins we need to be 26-22 over the rest of the season. That seems more than likely.

"When the other top teams in the West lose, there's usually a good reason" - Wrong, bad teams beat fully equipped good teams all the time. Its the NBA, not college, pretty much all the guys on the court can play and can have very good or bad games.

Since when is having no major dramas a bad thing?

In the end, this prediction can only work in the Mavs favor though. The lower the expectations the better. Bring on the hate.

Great post except I can't buy into the bold part. Boozer is a freakin' beast.

[Murphy3]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Dirk Nowitzki.

Honestly, this team might be bad enough that 'just making the playoffs' will be the season's storyline. I don't know. What I do know is that I trust Dirk to carry us into the playoffs waaay more than I would trust Tracy McGrady or Roy.

That's why I said 'not much' .... one player does, but nothing else.

[vRookie]

I don't really blame him for choosing Mavs to be the team to miss playoffs. Just look at our schedule. Our November/December schedule was soft (comparatively speaking). The real test is coming up this month and beyond. But the way they have been playing lately, things don't look good

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by Murphy3

That's why I said 'not much' .... one player does, but nothing else.

I think that one player can shoot Hollinger's argument to sh*t. We will need Kidd/Terry/Howard to play incredible to make any actual noise in the playoffs though.

[erdubya]

He's basing a whole season around 1 loss to Memphis??? fuggouttahere! I see nowhere in that piece him mentioning climbing from that 2-7 hole. For those 9 games If we would've played the way we're playing now, that would've put us at 6-3 easy... which puts us at 25-9 (.735).... and a solid #2 in the west.... even at 5-4 for that 9 game stretch puts us at 24 - 10 which is STILL #2 in the west... or 4-5 ties us for #2 in the west.

So it's clear to see, Hollinger is just talking out the side of his a$$.

[AxdemxO]

Do you guys really think that we will miss the playoffs. I mean our schedule has been easy, but since we havent played many hard teams what evidence does he have that we will do so horribly. We havent been blown out by any good team. We beat a couple pf them and the rest were winnable and close.

[ty]

Well...we do lose to a lot of good teams...

[joemoeschmoe]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

Great post except I can't buy into the bold part. Boozer is a freakin' beast.

I did say might...but its still a stretch. However, both are beasts and Utah doesn't fall that far with Millsap.

When I looked at his playoff odds, I realized he just looked at his most recent playoff odds, took the lowest odds to make the playoffs among the 9 West teams and created arguments to support his computer's results. He also did the same thing to figure out the champions. Bad process imo. If he had done this 2 weeks ago, it'd be different teams. 1 month ago, different teams again.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by joemoeschmoe

I did say might...but its still a stretch. However, both are beasts and Utah doesn't fall that far with Millsap.

When I looked at his playoff odds, I realized he just looked at his most recent playoff odds, took the lowest odds to make the playoffs among the 9 West teams and created arguments to support his computer's results. He also did the same thing to figure out the champions. Bad process imo. If he had done this 2 weeks ago, it'd be different teams. 1 month ago, different teams again.

haha look at the drop off after 9th place. 73% chance to .1% chance.

[LonghornDub]

Who cares. Sit back and enjoy the ride. This team has been pretty good the past month or so, and hopefully that will keep up.

[darkwitzki]

Mavs hater Hollinger is telling us to do some trades.. But the way things going right now, i predict a 5th or 6th position for us in the playoffs, considering no injuries to Dirk.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Who cares. Sit back and enjoy the ride. This team has been pretty good the past month or so, and hopefully that will keep up.

Posts like this make me glad we have rep back...

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by joemoeschmoe

When I looked at his playoff odds, I realized he just looked at his most recent playoff odds, took the lowest odds to make the playoffs among the 9 West teams and created arguments to support his computer's results.

Good catch. Hollinger writes a program, and reads off the results as biblical truth every time. If the numbers are slightly different next week, he'd come up with some other BS argument to argue why Utah (or whoever is #9) will miss the playoffs, and why they are so much worse than all the other teams.

[LonghornDub]

Hollinger's rankings and playoff odds are fun to read, but they're pretty questionable. The Mavs were in the #6 spot like 1 week ago, and they've lost one game since then. In that same time period, Houston has lost 3 games, but has jumped ahead.

[Zki41]

What is this "our schedule has been soft"? Our schedule has been just as hard as most of the other teams

Houston x 2
Lakers x 2
San Antonio x 2
Denver x 2

Cleveland x 1
Utah x 1
Portland x 1
Phoenix x 1
Orlando x 1
Atlanta x 1

These are all teams that Hollinger would "claim" are better than us. For being #5 in the West right now, us having played all of those games should say a lot.

That's 41% of our games thus far - and you can only add teams to this list, not take them away.

[ghazi]

Hollingers computer formulas and Power Rankings bounce around like a mf'er. One week its the Suns supposed to finish 9th, tehn the Spurs, now the Mavs. Also, I checked 2 days ago and he had Milwaukee ranked as #5 due to a 10 game stretch where their MoV is +8.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by ghazi

Hollingers computer formulas and Power Rankings bounce around like a mf'er. One week its the Suns supposed to finish 9th, tehn the Spurs, now the Mavs. Also, I checked 2 days ago and he had Milwaukee ranked as #5 due to a 10 game stretch where their MoV is +8.

I saw that. Did Johnny write another article defending why the Bucks will make the conference finals or something?

[ty]

Hollinger probably confuses himself more than he confuses other people.

[DubOverdose]

Originally Posted by Zki41

What is this "our schedule has been soft"? Our schedule has been just as hard as most of the other teams

Houston x 2
Lakers x 2
San Antonio x 2
Denver x 2

Cleveland x 1
Utah x 1
Portland x 1
Phoenix x 1
Orlando x 1
Atlanta x 1

These are all teams that Hollinger would "claim" are better than us. For being #5 in the West right now, us having played all of those games should say a lot.

That's 41% of our games thus far - and you can only add teams to this list, not take them away.

We have had a very easy schedule. In term's of strength of schedule, we have had the 6th easiest in the league.

[cinemablend]

Mavs haven't had injuries... um so what was Josh Howard doing when he missed all of those games?

Oh yeah, making the team better.

[Tokey41]

Who says anything will actually go wrong for us? Who says anything will go right for the other teams? Maybe the Jazz stay injured, the Rockets WILL stay injured, the Suns have to be concerned about Nash's back problems, and as Hollinger noted the Hornets are one injured CP3 away from throwing away the season.

I think the point he's making is we've been very fortunate compared to other Western playoff teams. He's not 'hating' on us, just stating that if we run into our own bad luck we might fall short of the eighth seed. It's not like he's saying we're definitely missing the playoffs... but he is kind of saying at full strength we're probably the weakest of the bunch.

[left texas]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Posts like this make me glad we have rep back...

Can someone please tell me where the hell the rep is?

[left texas]

I just watch our play some nights and wonder where the Mavs went. Other nights, I see a legit playoff team. I would just like to see some consistent play from more than three guys.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by left texas

Can someone please tell me where the hell the rep is?

The upper right hand corner of a message - the little blue check mark...

[left texas]

Originally Posted by Underdog

The upper right hand corner of a message - the little blue check mark...

+ rep for Underdog. I am an old man and use to old ways. Thank you so much Underdog!!!!