10-13-2004, 12:13 PM
|
#1
|
Old School Balla
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 13,097
|
368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Economists' Statement On John Kerry's Economic Agenda
To whom it may concern:
We, the undersigned, strongly oppose key aspects of the economic agenda that John Kerry has offered in his bid for the U.S. presidency.
John Kerry says he "is committed to balancing the budget," but he has proposed additional spending that some analysts have estimated could cost as much as $226.1 billion annually ($2.261 trillion over ten years). He promises to "end corporate welfare as we know it" by implementing the "McCain-Kerry commission on corporate welfare," but he also proposes to provide additional "tax credits and subsidies to manufacturers" that meet his criteria.
Entitlement reform is the most important fiscal challenge facing the country, yet Kerry's approach has been to deny that any fix is needed. Indeed, Kerry criticized the recent Medicare expansion for not being large enough.
John Kerry has proposed tax increases that threaten to sap the economy's vitality and reduce long-term growth. Specifically, Kerry proposes to "restore the top two [income] tax rates to their levels under President Clinton." He would also, among other things, "restore the capital gains and dividend rates for families making over $200,000 on income earned above $200,000 to their levels under President Clinton." Kerry's stated desire to balance the budget and to boost federal spending substantially would almost certainly require far higher and broader tax increases than he has proposed.
John Kerry boasts that his economic policies will lead to the creation of 10 million jobs in his first term as president. As Martin Sullivan wrote last April in the strictly non-partisan Tax Notes, no one "has presented any analysis to relate the Kerry plan to the creation of 1 million jobs, much less 10 million jobs." In fact, we believe Kerry's proposals would, over time, inhibit capital formation, depress productivity growth, and make the United States less competitive internationally. The end result would be lower U.S. employment and real wage growth.
John Kerry has expressed a general reluctance to reduce trade barriers. He has promised, if elected, to "review existing trade agreements." He vows not to "sign any new trade agreements until the review is complete and its recommendations [are] put in place." That's a prescription for political gridlock. Given the widespread benefits of unfettered trade, Kerry's trade policies would harm U.S. producers and consumers alike.
All in all, John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented, would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard of living for the American people.
Note : Affiliations are provided for identification purposes only. The organizations listed below should in no way be considered as endorsing the views of the individual.
Burton A. Abrams
University of Delaware
Douglas K. Adie
Ohio University
Richard Agnello
University of Delaware
William Albrecht
University of Iowa
Donald L. Alexander
Western Michigan University
William R. Allen
University of California , Los Angeles
Ryan C. Amacher
University of Texas-Arlington
Annelise Anderson
The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Martin Amderson
The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Wayne Angell
Angell Economics (proprietor)
Jim Araji
University of Idaho
Richard K. Armey
Former U.S. House Majority Leader
John Baden
Foundation for Research on Economics and the Environment
Charles W. Baird
California State University , Hayward
Anatol Balbach
Private Economist
Ray Ball
University of Chicago
A. Paul Ballantyne
University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
King Banaian
St. Cloud State University
Andy Barnett
Auburn University
Howard J. Beales III
George Washington University
Stacie Beck
University of Delaware
Gary S. Becker
University of Chicago
Don Bellante
University of South Florida
David BenDaniel
Cornell University
Bruce Bender
University of Wisconsin — Milwaukee
Bruce L. Benson
Florida State University
M. Douglas Berg
Sam Houston State University
John J. Bethune
Barton College
Bob Bise
Orange Coast College
Michael K. Block
University of Arizona
Cecil E. Bohanon
Ball State University
Donald R. Booth
Chapman University
G. Geoffrey Booth
Michigan State University
George Borjas
Harvard University
George Borts
Brown University
Michael J. Boskin
Stanford University
John H. Boyd
University of Minnesota
Michael W. Brandl
The University of Texas at Austin
Wayne Brough
Citizens for a Sound Economy
David Brown
University of Wisconsin at Madison
William W. Brown
California State University , Northridge
John B. Bryant
Rice University
Phil Bryson
Brigham Young University
Andrzej Brzeski
University of California , Davis
Steve Buccola
Oregon State University
James Buchanan
George Mason University
Richard C. K. Burdekin
Claremont McKenna College
Rob Burrus
University of North Carolina — Wilmington
Jim Butkiewicz
University of Delaware
Steven Call
Metropolitan State College of Denver
Colin D. Campbell
Dartmouth College
Noel D. Campbell
North Georgia College and State University
Oral Capps, Jr.
Texas A&M University
John S. Chipman
University of Minnesota
Barry R. Chiswick
University of Illinois — Chicago
Richard H. Clarida
Columbia University
J.R. Clark
University of Tennessee
R. Morris Coats
Nicholls State University
Joe Cobb
Dana Point , California
Howard Cochran, Jr.
Belmont University
John P. Cochran
Metropolitan State College of Denver
John Cogan
The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Boyd D. Collier
Tarleton State University
Roy Cordato
John Locke Foundation
Jim F. Couch
University of Northern Alabama
Eleanor Craig
University of Delaware
Ward S.Curran
Trinity College
Michael R. Darby
University of California , Los Angeles
Larry Davidson
Indiana University
Otto Davis
Carnegie Mellon University
Ronnie H. Davis
Florida Institute of Technology
Steve Davis
University of Chicago
Ed Day
University of Central Florida (retired)
Arthur De Vany
University of California , Irvine (emeritus)
Thomas DeLeire
Michigan State University
Gregory J. Delemeester
Marietta College
Henry Demmert
Santa Clara University
Christopher DeMuth
American Enterprise Institute
Craig A. Depken, II
Private economist
William G. Dewald
Ohio State University
Arthur M. Diamond, Jr.
University of Nebraska at Omaha
Jeff Dorfman
University of Georgia
William C. Dunkelberg
Temple University
Robert M. Dunn, Jr.
George Washington University
Parnell Duverger
Broward Community College
Dennis S. Edwards
Coastal Carolina University
Isaac Ehrlich
State University of New York at Buffalo
Jeffrey A. Eisenach
CapAnalysis, LLC
Dennis F. Ellis
University of Michigan at Flint
Michael A. Ellis
Kent State University
Eric Engen
American Enterprise Institute
Michael R. Englund
Action Economics, LLC
Stephen J. Entin
Institute for Research on the Economics of Taxation
Michael Erickson
Albertson College
Richard E. Ericson
East Carolina University
Fred G. Esposto
Kutztown University
Paul Evans
Ohio State University
Frank Falero
California State University (emeritus)
Allen M. Featherstone
Kansas State University
Martin Feldstein
Harvard University
Paul J. Feldstein
University of California , Irvine
Arthur A. Fleisher, III
Metro State College of Denver
Harold Flint
Montclair State University
Sean Flynn
Vassar College
Fred Foldvary
Santa Clara University
William F. Ford
Middle Tennessee State University
Blair L. Fortner
The Senate Majority Fund ( Missouri )
Micah Frankel
California State University
D. C. Frechtling
George Washington University
Gary L. French
Nathan Associates, Inc.
Milton Friedman
The Hoover Institution
Kenneth C. Froewiss
New York University, Stern School of Business
B. Delworth Gardner
Brigham Young University
Dave Garthoff
University of Akron
Gerald Garvey
Claremont Graduate University
James F, Gatti
University of Vermont
Gregory M. Gelles
University of Missouri — Rolla
Joseph A. Giacalone
St. John's University
Adam Gifford
California State University, Northridge
Otis W. Gilley
Louisiana Tech University
Edward L. Glaeser
Harvard University
Amy Jocelyn Glass
Texas A&M University
Richard F. Gleisner
St. Cloud State University
Charles J. Goetz
University of Virginia
Rodolfo A. Gonzalez
San Jose State University
John C. Goodman
National Center for Policy Analysis
Richard L. Gordon
Pennsylvania State University
Ernie Goss
Creighton University
Scott F. Grannis
Western Asset Management
Bettina Bien Greaves
Foundation for Economic Education
William B. Green
Sam Houston State University
Ken Greene
Binghamton University
John Greenhut
Arizona State University West
Earl L. Grinols, III
Baylor University
Daniel M. Gropper
Auburn University
James Gwartney
Florida State University
Rik Hafer
Southern Illinois University, Edwardsville
Dennis Halcoussis
California State University, Northridge
Stephen Happel
Arizona State University
Scott Harrington
University of South Carolina
James E. Hartley
Mount Holyoke College
Kevin Hassett
American Enterprise Institute
Joel W. Hay
University of Southern California
Cary Heath
University of Louisiana at Lafayette
Robert H. Heidt
Indiana University at Bloomington
Dale M. Heien
University of California, Davis
Robert B. Helms
American Enterprise Institute
James W. Henderson
Baylor University
Robert Herren
North Dakota State University
Irving Hoch
University of Texas at Dallas (emeritus)
Harold M. Hochman
Lafayette College (emeritus)
Robert J. Hodrick
Columbia University
Milton L. Holloway
Resource Economics, Inc.
George Horwich
Purdue University (emeritus)
Glenn Hubbard
Columbia University
James L. Huffman
Lewis & Clark Law School
Larry Hunter
Empower America
E. Bruce Hutchinson
University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
Selahattin Imrohoroglu
University of Southern California
Chris Inama
Golden Gate University
F. Jerry Ingram
University of Louisiana-Monroe
F. Owen Irvine
Michigan State University
Steve Jackstadt
University of Alaska — Anchorage
Joseph M. Jadlow
Oklahoma State University
Austin Jaffe
Penn State University
Sherry Jarrell
Wake Forest University
Michael C. Jensen
Harvard Business School
Dennis A. Johnson
University of South Dakota (emeritus)
Clifton T. Jones
Stephen F. Austin State University
Jerry L. Jordan
Fraser Institute
Richard E. Just
University of Maryland
Alexander Katkov
Johnson & Wales University
Raymond J.Keating
Small Business Survival Committee
Kristen Keith
University of Toledo
Calvin A. Kent
Marshall University
B.F. Kiker
University of South Carolina
Robin Klay
Hope College
Paul Koch
Olivet Nazarene University
Meir Kohn
Dartmouth College
James W. Kolari
Texas A&M University
Roger Kormendi
University of Michigan Business School
Melvyn Krauss
Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Robert C. Krol
California State University at Northridge
Randall S. Kroszner
University of Chicago
Michael M. Kurth
McNeese State University
Richard La Near
Missouri Southern State University
Arthur B. Laffer
Laffer Associates
William E. Laird
Florida State University
Deepak Lal
University of California — Los Angeles
Russell Lamb
Economic Consultant, Washington , D.C.
Nicholas A. Lash
Loyola University
Robert A. Lawson
Capital University
Ed Lazear
Stanford University
Don R. Leet
California State University at Fresno
John Leeth
Bentley College
Ken Lehn
University of Pittsburgh
Noreen Lephardt
Marquette University
Adam Lerrick
University of Nebraska — Lincoln
Cotton M. Lindsay
Clemson University
Larry Lindsey
American Enterprise Institute
Allan E. Lines
Ohio State University
Luis Locay
University of Miami
Dennis E. Logue
University of Oklahoma
James R. Lothian
Fordham University
John Lott
American Enterprise Institute
Lawrence W. Lovik
Troy State University
Harold I. Lunde
Bowling Green State University (emeritus)
John Lunn
Hope College
Donald L. Luskin
Trend Macrolytics
Paul W. MacAvoy
Yale University
Glenn MacDonald
Washington University
Doug MacKenzie
Ramapo College of New Jersey
Joseph P. Magaddino
California State University, Long Beach
Burton Malkiel
Princeton University
Yuri N. Maltsev
Carthage College
Henry G. Manne
George Mason University School of Law (emeritus)
Richard Manning
Pfizer, Inc.
Dick Marcus
University of Wisconsin — Milwaukee
Michael L. Marlow
California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Craig Marxsen
University of Nebraska at Kearney
Scott Masten
University of Michigan
John G. Matsusaka
University of Southern California
Merrill Matthews
Institute for Policy Innovation
Paul W. McCracken
University of Michigan
Rachel McCulloch
Brandeis University
Lawrence J. McQuillan
Pacific Research Institute
Tom Means
San Jose State University
David I. Meiselman
Virginia Tech (emeritus)
Allan Meltzer
Carnegie Mellon University
Lloyd J. Mercer
University of California, Santa Barbara
John Merrifield
University of Texas at San Antonio
Jim Miller
Former Reagan Budget Director
Tracy Miller
Grove City College
David E. Mills
University of Virginia
Mario J. Miranda
Ohio State University
Ronald L. Moomaw
Oklahoma State University
Steve Moore
Club for Growth
John C. Moorhouse
Wake Forest University
Paul Morgan
Westmont College
Michael A. Morrisey
University of Alabama at Birmingham
Andrew P. Morriss
Case Western University
Robert Mundell
Columbia University
Michael Munger
Duke University
John Murray
University of Toledo
Anthony Negbenebor
Gardner-Webb University
Jon P. Nelson
Penn State University
George Neumann
University of Iowa
Seth Norton
Wheaton College
William H. Oakland
Tulane University
Lee E. Ohanian
University of California , Los Angeles
David J. O'Hara
Metropolitan State University
June O'Neill
Baruch College, City University of New York
Lydia Ortega
San Jose State University
Bill Orzechowski
Orzechowski and Walker
Karen Palasek
John Locke Foundation
Randall E. Parker
East Carolina University
E.C. Pasour, Jr.
North Carolina State University
Judd W. Patton
Bellevue University
William Peirce
Case Western Reserve University (emeritus)
Tim Perri
Appalachian State University
Mark J. Perry
University of Michigan — Flint
William H. Peterson
Heritage Foundation
Christopher Pflaum
Spectrum Economics, Inc.
Charles R. Plott
California Institute of Technology
Ivan Pongracic, Jr.
Hillsdale College
Barry Poulson
University of Colorado
Edward C. Prescott
Arizona State University
Jan S. Prybyla
Pennsylvania State University
Richard Rahn
Discovery Institute
John Rapp
University of Dayton
Eric Rasmusen
Indiana University
Martin A. Regalia
United States Chamber of Commerce
Spencer S. Reibman
Georgia State University
Ralph R. Reiland
Robert Morris University
George Reisman
Pepperdine University
Christine P. Ries
Georgia Institute of Technology
Nancy Roberts
Arizona State University
David C. Rose
University of Missouri
Robert J. Rossana
Wayne State University
Timothy Roth
University of Texas at El Paso
Charles K. Rowley
George Mason University
Paul H. Rubin
Emory University
Roy Ruffin
University of Houston
John Ruggiero
University of Dayton
Mark Rush
University of Florida
Gary J. Santoni
Ball State University (emeritus)
Thomas R. Saving
Texas A&M University
Mike Schuyler
Institute for Research on the Economics of Taxation
G. William Schwert
University of Rochester
Carole E. Scott
State University of West Georgia
John J. Seater
North Carolina State University
Carlos Seiglie
Rutgers University
Richard T. Selden
University of Virginia
Barry J. Seldon
University of Texas at Dallas
John Semmens
Phoenix College
Jacobus T. Severiens
John Carroll University
Sol S. Shalit
University of Wisconsin
Alan C. Shapiro
University of Southern California
Stephen Shmanske
California State University, Hayward
William F. Shughart II
University of Mississippi
George P. Shulrz
The Hoover Institution, Stanford University
John E. Silvia
Wachovia
Neil T. Skaggs
Illinois State University
Charles Skipton
University of Tampa
Mark Skousen
Columbia University
Amy Smith
The Lindsey Group
Clifford W. Smith
Simon School of Business, University of Rochester
James F. Smith
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Kenneth R. Smith
University of Arizona
Neil Snyder
University of Virginia
Russell Sobel
West Virginia University
David L. Sollars
Washburn University
John C. Soper
John Carroll University
Douglas Southgate
Ohio State University
David E. Spencer
Brigham Young University
Frank Spreng
McKendree College
Beryl Sprinkel
B.W. Sprinkel Economics
Stan Spurlock
Mississippi State University
Ben Stein
Pepperdine University
Craig Stephenson
Babson College
E. Frank Stephenson
Berry College
Courtenay C. Stone
Ball State University
Marc Sumerlin
The Lindsey Group
Daniel A. Sumner
University of California, Davis
Richard Sweeney
Georgetown University
Thomas L. Tacker
University of Central Florida
Robert Tamura
Clemson University
Lester Telser
University of Chicago
Rebecca Thacker
Ohio University
Clifford T. Thies
Shenandoah University
Henry Thompson
Auburn University
Robert Tollison
Clemson University
Leo Troy
Rutgers University
David G. Tuerck
Suffolk University
Gordon Tullock
George Mason University
Charlotte Twight
Boise State University
Charles Upton
Kent State University
T. Norman Van Cott
Ball State University
Richard Vedder
Ohio University
Robert Vigil
Analysis Group, Inc.
J. Antonio Villamil
Former U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs
Kip Viscusi
Harvard University
John Volpe
Trinity College
Richard E. Wagner
George Mason University
William B Walstad
University of Nebraska — Lincoln.
John T. Warner
Clemson University
Thayer Watkins
San Jose State University
Andrew Weinbach
Armstrong Atlantic State University
Michael Welker
Franciscan University of Steubenville
John T. Wenders
University of Idaho
Walter J. Wessels
North Carolina State University
Robert Whaples
Wake Forest University
Gilbert Whitaker
Rice University
John Wicks
University of Montana
Gary W. Williams
Texas A&M University
Michael Williams
University of Denver
Walter E. Williams
George Mason University
Mark Wilson
Appalachian State University
Gary Wolfram
Hillsdale College
Gene C. Wunder
Washburn University
Richard Yamarone
Argus Research Group
DeVan L. Yoho
Ball State University
Andrew Yuengert
Pepperdine University
Paul Zak
Claremont Graduate University
Mokhlis Zaki
Northern Michigan University
Arnold Zellner
University of Chicago
Benjamin Zycher
Pacific Research Institute
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 12:17 PM
|
#2
|
Old School Balla
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 13,097
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
368 Economists Against Kerrynomics
The challenger’s policies would bring “a lower standard of living for the American people.”
By J. Edward Carter & Cesar V. Conda
link
Leading economists have a message for America: “John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented, would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard of living for the American people.”
That was the conclusion released in a statement (NOTE: this is the statement I posted above) Wednesday by 368 economists, including six Nobel laureates: Gary Becker, James Buchanan, Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Robert Mundell, and — the winner of this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics — Edward C. Prescott. The economists warned that Sen. Kerry’s policies “would, over time, inhibit capital formation, depress productivity growth, and make the United States less competitive internationally. The end result would be lower U.S. employment and real wage growth.”
Consider Kerry’s spending and tax proposals. Kerry claims he wants to balance the federal budget, but as the Washington Post pointed out last August, “Sen. John F. Kerry’s pledge to reduce record federal budget deficits is colliding with an obstacle that may be growing higher by the week: his own campaign commitments.” In fact, Kerry’s spending proposals would add an estimated $226 billion annually to federal spending. To put this in perspective, $226 billion is roughly equal to the gross domestic products of Greece or Sweden.
Kerry’s oft-repeated budget solution is to raise taxes on “families making over $200,000 on income earned above $200,000 to their levels under President Clinton.” This proposal would generate hundreds-of-billions of dollars over the next decade for the Treasury’s coffers. Kerry’s other proposed tax increases would generate billions more. Yet, these tax increases would offset only a fraction of Kerry’s new spending.
For instance, Senator Kerry’s government-run health insurance spending plan would by itself require a tax increase of more than $1 trillion. Two independent studies, one by the Lewin Group and another by the American Enterprise Institute, concluded that Kerry’s health insurance proposal would cost more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years. And that’s just one of Kerry’s spending proposals. To close the funding gap between all of his spending and tax promises, Kerry would have to raise taxes by an average of $1,431 for everyone who files an income-tax return.
The stark disconnect between Kerry’s spending and tax proposals is what prompted 368 leading economists to conclude, “Kerry’s stated desire to balance the budget and to boost federal spending substantially would almost certainly require far higher and broader tax increases than he has proposed.” And given Kerry’s voting record in the Senate — he has cast 98 votes for tax increases totaling more than $2.3 trillion throughout his legislative career — that is no idle threat.
It is no secret that John Kerry wants America’s foreign policy to be more like that of Germany and France. But perhaps even more disturbing, he has demonstrated that he wants to emulate their failed tax-and-spend economic policies, too. Over time, the consequences could be devastating. Consider the impact those policies have had on Europe. Germany and France once enjoyed standards of living comparable to those of the United States. Today, U.S. per capita GDP is 38 percent higher than that of Germany and 43 percent higher than that of France. Indeed, as economist Bruce Bartlett recently pointed out, “On average, Europeans only live about as well as those in the poorest American state, Mississippi.”
The 368 economists only briefly touched upon Kerry’s trade policies. As it happens, there is not much upon which to comment. Kerry has expressed a general reluctance to reduce trade barriers, and he has promised, if elected, to “review existing trade agreements.” His applause line is that he vows not to “sign any new trade agreements until the review is complete and its recommendations [are] put in place.” According to the 368 economists, “That's a prescription for political gridlock. Given the widespread benefits of unfettered trade, Kerry’s trade policies would harm U.S. producers and consumers alike.”
Finally, we have all heard John Kerry denigrate the present rate of job creation. Yet, according to latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, 1.9 million jobs have been created since August 2003. And at 5.4 percent, the unemployment rate is below the average unemployment rates of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.
We have also heard Kerry’s solemn vow to create 10 million new jobs during his first term as president. But you probably have not heard that the U.S. economy is likely to create about that many jobs over the next four years under current policy.
During the first nine months of 2004 — while Kerry was criticizing the pace of employment growth — payroll employment grew an average of more than 170,000 jobs a month. At that rate, the next administration would preside over the creation of roughly 8.2 million net new jobs. And yet, as Martin Sullivan pointed out in Tax Notes, Kerry has not presented one objective analysis to support his claim that his policies would create 1 million more jobs, much less 10 million more.
John Kerry has adopted the Walter Mondale approach to economics — increase taxes. Even advocates of Keynesian economics would not recommend raising taxes in the early stages of an economic recovery. Unlike Mondale, however, Kerry will wait until after the election to reveal all of the tax increases that will be required to pay for his government spending promises. Three hundred and sixty eight economists hope American voters will heed their warnings before it is too late.
— J. Edward Carter is an economist in Washington, D.C. Cesar V. Conda, formerly assistant for domestic policy to Vice President Dick Cheney, is a senior fellow at FreedomWorks in Washington, D.C.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 12:21 PM
|
#3
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Holy crap! That list is a Who's Who list of economists in the United Sates. I know several of them personally, including Jim Henderson who has one of the sharpest minds that I have ever encountered. I know Dr. Capps at A&M. He came here and did a presentation that blew us all away. There are so many on that list who are heavy hitters it is amazing.
This is awfully damning to Kerry. I hope Bush has this and can assimilate this into tonights debate. ouch.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 12:23 PM
|
#4
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
To close the funding gap between all of his spending and tax promises, Kerry would have to raise taxes by an average of $1,431 for everyone who files an income-tax return.
nuff said.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 12:44 PM
|
#5
|
Old School Balla
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 13,097
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
To close the funding gap between all of his spending and tax promises, Kerry would have to raise taxes by an average of $1,431 for everyone who files an income-tax return.
nuff said.
|
Exactly. Taxes will go up for ALL Americans, the standard of living will go down, and the economy will stagnate and stop growing. Is that what anybody wants?
Comments from folks intending to vote for Kerry are welcome.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 01:27 PM
|
#6
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
www.economist.com
The economy and the election
The dismal science bites back
George Bush comes out worst in our poll of academic economists
WOULD John Kerry or George Bush do a better job stewarding America's economy? Judging by the polls, voters are not sure. Within the past couple of months both candidates have had narrow leads on the issue. Ask economics professors, however, and you get a clearer answer.
In an informal poll of 100 academics, conducted by The Economist, Mr Bush's policies win low marks. More than 70% of the 56 professors who responded to our survey rate Mr Bush's first-term economic policies as bad or very bad. Fewer than 20% give positive marks to Mr Bush's second-term economic agenda, and almost six out of ten disapproved. Mr Kerry hardly got rave reviews either, but his economic plan still fared better than the president's did. In all, four out of ten professors rated Mr Kerry's economic plan as good or very good, but 27% gave it negative scores. (The complete numbers are available at www.economist.com/economistspoll.)
Are our economists partisans? We chose their names, at random, from among the referees of the American Economic Review, one of the profession's more prestigious publications. Conservatives often moan that university professors are all left-wingers. Though most of our professors claim they are not interested in working in Washington, 80% of those who would accept a policy job would prefer to work for Mr Kerry. However, even if you allow for some partisanship, the results are fairly striking.
A third of the economists reckon the economy is in good or very good shape; about half give a neutral response, and one in five deems the economy to be weak. They are almost equally split about how much responsibility the Bush administration deserves for the state of today's economy. Just over a third assign some or all credit or blame to the president; another third think he has had little or nothing to do with it.
Despite their diverse assessments of today's economy, the professors are overwhelmingly critical of the central plank of Mr Bush's economic policy—tax cuts. More than seven out of ten respondents say the Bush administration's tax cuts were either a bad or a very bad idea, and a similar proportion disapproves of Mr Bush's plans to make his tax cuts permanent. By contrast, Mr Kerry's plan to roll back the tax cuts for people with incomes over $200,000 wins the support of seven in ten of them. (This poll was taken before October 4th, when Mr Bush signed into law his fourth tax cut, which extended several popular components of earlier tax cuts that were due to expire at the end of this year, including the child tax credit.)
The broad condemnation of tax cuts seems to be linked to the professors' worries about America's fiscal health and the looming retirement of the baby-boom generation. Although Americans overall seem relatively unconcerned about the budget deficit, a large majority of the economists rate it as a serious problem for the economy, with almost one in five describing it as a crisis. And they back Mr Kerry by a large margin (79% to 18%) to do more to promote fiscal discipline than Mr Bush. In contrast, the boffins seemed much less concerned by the current-account deficit; only one respondent called it a crisis, and close to 20% deemed it either a small problem or no problem at all.
Health care also seems to be an issue that pushed our economists towards Mr Kerry. More than 70% of the academics reckoned health-care costs were a serious problem for the economy—and they preferred Mr Kerry's plans to control those costs by a margin of 59% to 25% (with the rest ducking the question).
There was some good news for Mr Bush on tax reform. More than 40% of the academics hail his plan to simplify the tax code as a good or very good idea—twice as many as think it bad or very bad. Mr Kerry's main tax-reform proposal—ending the ability of foreign subsidiaries of American firms to defer taxes on their profits—was less well received. Around a third of the professors thought that was a good or very good idea, a third were neutral, and a third thought it was a bad idea.
On entitlement reform, the academics' opinions are harder to interpret. They are evenly split on the merits of Mr Bush's proposal to reform Social Security by creating personal retirement accounts: 36% think it is a good or very good idea, 38% a bad or very bad idea. Oddly, most of them think Mr Kerry offers better plans for dealing with the baby-boomers' retirement, even though he has not actually made any concrete proposals for entitlement reform.
One area where the economists clearly favour Mr Bush is trade. Mr Kerry's ranting about outsourcing has irritated economists: a huge majority dismiss outsourcing as either a small or non-existent problem, and almost 60% give Mr Kerry's trade policy a bad or very bad rating. Although they are plainly not wild about Mr Bush's record on trade, they back him by a margin of almost two-to-one to do more to help free trade and globalisation than Mr Kerry would.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 01:30 PM
|
#7
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
First off....academic professors are almost always liberal. I am not sure why. At least they cite that fact. So...56 liberally baised professors who opted to respond to this informal "poll" that you cite outweigh 386 of the most prominent and respected economists in the United States today? Your 56 aren't even identified. There are Nobel prize winners on kg_vet's list. Several of them. I'll go with the identified masses of uberintellectual economists over some obscure biased 56 who haven't even got the balls to identify themselves.
That list of kg_vets is so incredibly damning. There is no way Kerry can save face as this information leaks out and is absorbed into the fabric of this country.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 02:28 PM
|
#8
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
First off....academic professors are almost always liberal. I am not sure why. At least they cite that fact. So...56 liberally baised professors who opted to respond to this informal "poll" that you cite outweigh 386 of the most prominent and respected economists in the United States today?
|
First of all, why the sudden animosity to university professors? Nearly 80% of the people on that petition are University professors and little else. Is it only 'biased' when they express a 'liberal' opinion? Hypocrite.
Secondly, no 56 'biased' professors don't outweigh 310 other 'biased' professors (whose alleged prestige and noteworthyness you spare no syllable in exaggerating). I was merely pointing out that it's hardly as 'damning' as you make it out to be, and that there a number of economists in universities just like the one's those professors are in (sometimes the same school) and think tanks just like those private economists are in that think John Kerry's economic platform is a good idea and George Bush's is a disaster. Economics, like any other discipline, has it's partisans (not that it interferes with their work) and it goes both ways. From post-keynesians like Paul Krugman or William Nordhaus, to laissez-faire militant Neoliberals like Milton Friedman. Both very respected economists. Both with olitical affiliations they wear on their sleeve, both have been wrong before.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 02:37 PM
|
#9
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Posts: 8,195
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Oddly, most of them think Mr Kerry offers better plans for dealing with the baby-boomers' retirement, even though he has not actually made any concrete proposals for entitlement reform.
|
so, are the professors in the economists poll that ill-informed, or are they that biased toward Kerry?
DrBio,
Academics are largely left leaning because so many are publicly funded (as are their customers, the students).
Also, intellectual elitism has been confounded with an anti-religious viewpoint for some time now.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 03:07 PM
|
#10
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: Epitome22
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
First off....academic professors are almost always liberal. I am not sure why. At least they cite that fact. So...56 liberally baised professors who opted to respond to this informal "poll" that you cite outweigh 386 of the most prominent and respected economists in the United States today?
|
First of all, why the sudden animosity to university professors? Nearly 80% of the people on that petition are University professors and little else. Is it only 'biased' when they express a 'liberal' opinion? Hypocrite.
Secondly, no 56 'biased' professors don't outweigh 310 other 'biased' professors (whose alleged prestige and noteworthyness you spare no syllable in exaggerating). I was merely pointing out that it's hardly as 'damning' as you make it out to be, and that there a number of economists in universities just like the one's those professors are in (sometimes the same school) and think tanks just like those private economists are in that think John Kerry's economic platform is a good idea and George Bush's is a disaster. Economics, like any other discipline, has it's partisans (not that it interferes with their work) and it goes both ways. From post-keynesians like Paul Krugman or William Nordhaus, to laissez-faire militant Neoliberals like Milton Friedman. Both very respected economists. Both with olitical affiliations they wear on their sleeve, both have been wrong before.
|
Laughable that you would try to make this about animosity towards professors. You did know I am one right? [img]i/expressions/anim_roller.gif[/img] There is no disputing the FACT that a great majority of academic professors are liberal. There is no stab there...just fact. Stop trying to create a diversion from the theme.
I'm glad that you agree that 56 volunteer respondents don't outweigh 386 of the most respected economists in the world today. Nice save of face. You cannot also ignore the fact that so many Nobel laureates are reaching the same conclusion about kerrys plan. It will fail. These are the brightest minds in existence today in that field. Period. To a man they agree that kerrys plan is not workable.
Obviously economists (like every discipline) will fall along a line of political partisanship, however, you just hit on one where liberals dominate and dominate overwhelmingly. I happen to know a couple of these professors personally and I can assure you that they would not describe themselves as republican.
You cannot escape the fact that this is tremendously damning to sKerry. His butt is in full pucker mode right now to be sure.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 03:08 PM
|
#11
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: Usually Lurkin
Quote:
Oddly, most of them think Mr Kerry offers better plans for dealing with the baby-boomers' retirement, even though he has not actually made any concrete proposals for entitlement reform.
|
so, are the professors in the economists poll that ill-informed, or are they that biased toward Kerry?
DrBio,
Academics are largely left leaning because so many are publicly funded (as are their customers, the students).
Also, intellectual elitism has been confounded with an anti-religious viewpoint for some time now.
|
I knew that, but it just boggles my mind sometimes how such brilliant people can reach such confusing conclusions. That is where I was going with that remark.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 04:05 PM
|
#12
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
Laughable that you would try to make this about animosity towards professors. You did know I am one right? [img]i/expressions/anim_roller.gif[/img] There is no disputing the FACT that a great majority of academic professors are liberal. There is no stab there...just fact. Stop trying to create a diversion from the theme.
|
I wasn't making this about animosity towards professors. I was merely pointing out your hypocrisy of shnubbing the opinion of 56 economics professors with an alleged 'liberal' bias, while touting the musings of a statement that included 310 such university professors(who by virtue of expressing opinions a partisan such as yourself agrees with, exempt themselves from being tagged as 'biased' themselves.)
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
I'm glad that you agree that 56 volunteer respondents don't outweigh 386 of the most respected economists in the world today. Nice save of face.
|
It wasn't a 'save of face' In fact if anything it pointed out how biased your and potentially their opinion is. And once again you spare no syllable in comically exaggerating the prestiege of some of these guys, many of who'm have done nothing outside the Ivory tower you allegedly deplore so much.
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
You cannot also ignore the fact that so many Nobel laureates are reaching the same conclusion about kerrys plan.
|
Oh! Is this about Nobel Laureates? Ok then
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5818277/
10 Nobel economists endorse Kerry
George Akerlof and Daniel McFadden of the University of California at Berkeley, Kenneth Arrow and William Sharpe of Stanford University, Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University, Lawrence Klein of the University of Pennsylvania, Douglass North of Washington University, Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow of MIT and Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University.
"The Democratic presidential nominee released a letter from the economists saying the Bush administration had “embarked on a reckless and extreme course that endangers the long-term economic health of our nation.”
They cited “poorly designed” tax cuts that instead of creating jobs have turned budget surpluses into enormous budget deficits, a “fiscal irresponsibility threatens the long-term economic security and prosperity of our nation.”
All hacks with no understanding of economics I'm sure. Someone should revoke their Nobel prizes.
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
It will fail. These are the brightest minds in existence today in that field. Period.
|
Uh huh. And simply asserting it as so is very convincing.
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
Obviously economists (like every discipline) will fall along a line of political partisanship, however, you just hit on one where liberals dominate and dominate overwhelmingly. I happen to know a couple of these professors personally and I can assure you that they would not describe themselves as republican.
|
Many of the people criticizing Bush's economic policies would hardly qualify as liberals either. In fact some of his staunchist critics are from the libertarian austrian school of economic thought, many are fiscal conservatives. What's your point?
[quote]
Originally posted by: Drbio
[quote]
[i]
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
You cannot escape the fact that this is tremendously damning to sKerry. His butt is in full pucker mode right now to be sure.
|
As I just pointed out. No it isn't.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 04:16 PM
|
#13
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Are you really that ignorant or just hard headed? First, there are 386 economists on that list. Not 310. Second, the VAST majority of them are liberal I assure you. I freely accept their informed opinion of the doomed for failure sKerry tax plan. The 56 respondents in your little post there are equally as liberal, but they are ones who chose to respond and that biases the result. Ergo, I am not dismissing them for their liberalism but rather because the polling is not designed to be representative. HUGE error.
Secondly, the 386 economists on that list are very well pedigreed. I see no reason to not applaud them for thier knowledge and ability. Stop trying to spin out of this. I won't let you go off on a tangent.
Thirdly, you have performed a kerry worthy spin on your Nobel economists above. They said that the tax cuts were not enough...they did not slam Bush's tax cuts per se. I doubt you are able to comprehend the difference, but please try.
Fourthly, I will take the word of 386 world leading economists over your "informed opinion" any day of the week and twice on Sunday. It is an assertion quite easy to make because it is factually solid.
Fifthly (seems like another arse whuppin' is in progress...sheesh), obviously a smaller percentage of any party will not agree with everything their party puts on the platform. What's your point? Oh yeah...you have none.
Finally.....deny it all you want to. You pointed out nothing but your intellectual failures. Kerry has been brutally beaten and exposed by the assertions fo the economists above. You don't have to agree with this fact, you just need to accept it. It won't change because you whined in this forum.
Loosen up the diaper, I know you've been brutaliszed in this forum over the last day or two....you need a rest.
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 04:18 PM
|
#14
|
Old School Balla
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 13,097
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
I read the letter you're referring to, Epitome. They criticize Bush's plan but say very little about Kerry's plan, and certainly nothing specific in the way of analysis. The bottom line remains the same:
Taxes will go up for ALL Americans, the standard of living will go down, and the economy will stagnate and stop growing. Is that what anybody wants?
|
|
|
10-13-2004, 06:08 PM
|
#15
|
Troll Hunter
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Sports Heaven!
Posts: 9,898
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
That's an interesting list of economists - but I think someone should've asked Ben Stein to not participate.
__________________
"I don't know what went wrong," said guard Thabo Sefolosha. "It's hard to talk about it."
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 12:43 AM
|
#16
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio Are you really that ignorant or just hard headed? First, there are 386 economists on that list. Not 310.
|
LOL. I'm aware of that sir, there's no need to raise your blood pressure. the 310 refers to the number of people on that list who are University professors. The vast majority.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Second, the VAST majority of them are liberal I assure you.
|
Please don't be offended if I don't take your word for it.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
I freely accept their informed opinion of the doomed for failure sKerry tax plan.
|
That's your perogative to do such. I will review the words of the esteemed economists about the weaknesses of Kerry's proposed economic policies as it relate's to Bush's, then I will review the words of the esteemed economists about the weaknesses of Bush's failed economic policies as they relate to Kerry's proposed policies. Then I will make a sound decision as an informed and responsible voter.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
The 56 respondents in your little post there are equally as liberal, but they are ones who chose to respond and that biases the result.
|
So let me get this laid out. When economists express their dissatisfaction with Kerry's proposed economic policies and how they relate to Bush's, they are objective decisions using their vast uber intellects. When economists express their dissatisfaction with Bush's economic policies as they relate to Kerry's proposed policies they are expressing a 'liberal' bias. I just wanted to clear that up. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Secondly, the 386 economists on that list are very well pedigreed. I see no reason to not applaud them for thier knowledge and ability. Stop trying to spin out of this. I won't let you go off on a tangent.
|
There are a number of very well respected and esteemed economists on that list I agree(as there are a number of very well respected and esteemed economists in Kerry's camp), but you are being intellectually dishonest when you try to paint them all as economic supermen with superior pedigree, standing and 'uberintellects'. The fact remains that there's far more 'Joe Economics professor' types on that list then there are Milton Friedmans. I have no doubt all the economists on the list are highly educated and capable. But most of them aren't the men you make them out to be.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Thirdly, you have performed a kerry worthy spin on your Nobel economists above. They said that the tax cuts were not enough...they did not slam Bush's tax cuts per se. I doubt you are able to comprehend the difference, but please try.
|
I've been reading over both articles repeatedly and I have yet to read anything by these economists where their main objection to the tax cuts was that they were too small. Perhaps you know something, or have access to something I don't. If you do, please show it to me. Otherwise, I wasn't trying to 'spin' anything and your accusation is false.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Fourthly, I will take the word of 386 world leading economists over your "informed opinion" any day of the week and twice on Sunday. It is an assertion quite easy to make because it is factually solid.
|
Well as it relates to matters of economics I would more than recommend that their opinion is certainly much more informed and solid than mine and never said anything to the contrary. My point is that the opinions of these economists (some of them, very esteemed) in their support for Bush over Kerry, aren't worth anymore than the opinions of other equally esteemed economists, and their support for Kerry over Bush.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Fifthly (seems like another arse whuppin' is in progress...sheesh), obviously a smaller percentage of any party will not agree with everything their party puts on the platform. What's your point? Oh yeah...you have none.
|
I really don't know what you are speaking about here.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Finally.....deny it all you want to. You pointed out nothing but your intellectual failures. Kerry has been brutally beaten and exposed by the assertions fo the economists above. You don't have to agree with this fact, you just need to accept it. It won't change because you whined in this forum.
|
I don't think he's been beaten at all, at least not any moreso than Bush. The fact that many economists, esteemed and otherwise, disagree so staunchly with his policies and favor Bush's; certainly seems troubling to a Kerry supporter. But as a Kerry supporter, I'm equally heartened by the fact that so many other economists, quite esteemed themselves, think that Kerry's economic plan is sound and productive and that Bush's is a disaster. You don't have to like the fact that so many esteemed economists, some of them nobel prize winners disagree with you, you just have to accept it, and realize that it floats up both streets.
Quote:
[i]Originally posted by: Drbio
Loosen up the diaper, I know you've been brutaliszed in this forum over the last day or two....you need a rest.
|
LOL. I appreciate the advice. But I assure you I'm quite fine. On the otherhand, if you can't control your temper more affectively, and can't keep large chunks of your replies from being bogged down with pointless, childish personal attacks, then perhaps you should take a break from this forum. More substance, less vitirol ok?
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 12:46 AM
|
#17
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: kg_veteran
I read the letter you're referring to, Epitome. They criticize Bush's plan but say very little about Kerry's plan, and certainly nothing specific in the way of analysis. The bottom line remains the same:
|
I'm not sure what that bottom line is KG. Is it that Kerry's economic plans are worse? I haven't read much either on exactly what they like about Kerry's proposed policies, but they clearl regard them as superior to Bush's, and I doubt they would go to the trouble of using their esteemed names to endorse him if they didn't truly believe he had the superior plan.
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 12:47 AM
|
#18
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
It's hopeless trying to hold a conversation with an ignorant fool like you epitome. You consistently ignore the most basic concept. I guess it's all you have left in your bag to live in ignorant bliss after being so thoroughyl deconstructed in this forum over the past several days.
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 12:52 AM
|
#19
|
Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 1,827
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
Quote:
Originally posted by: Drbio
It's hopeless trying to hold a conversation with an ignorant fool like you epitome. You consistently ignore the most basic concept. I guess it's all you have left in your bag to live in ignorant bliss after being so thoroughyl deconstructed in this forum over the past several days.
|
I guess you didn't get the memo about more content and less vitirol.
Or my request for you to point out where the economists said the tax cuts should have been bigger.
Oh well.
Always a pleasure.
P.S. Careful with that temper.
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 09:48 AM
|
#20
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
*Yawn*
I hope your heiny heals quickly from all your recent deconstructions in this forum. Try Bob's Butt Cream. I hear it does wonders.
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 10:44 AM
|
#21
|
Diamond Member
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Texas
Posts: 6,014
|
RE:368 Economists against Kerrynomics
What is very ironic is the above letter criticizes the Kerry economic proposals for their projected cost, yet the Bush proposals have just as high a price tag, with some groups saying the Bush proposals actually are a greater price tag than Kerry's.
It's odd that these economists don't mention the proposal by Kerry to reduce corporate tax rates, which would be a sure boost for hiring and investment.
I do agree with the assertion that entitlement programs should be reformed, yet to look at one of the largest- social security- the Bush proposal is disaster. As SS is a program where the current workers pay for the retired workers, if anyone can explain how allowing those who should be paying in to put that money into private accounts rather than SS accounts, while still having the money to pay the retirees, I would like to hear it.
No President actually creates jobs, they merely allow for business to have a healthy climate to add employees. Can Kerry allow for the positive business climate for his job numbers to happen? Depends...on the price of oil, on the business leaders to have a positive view going forward that has them ramping up production and expansion. So yes it could happen, but it really isn't up to whoever is Pres.
The one area that Bush has made proposals on that could be a strong economic boost is reforming the tax code. However, he has not made any concrete statements on how that would be done.
|
|
|
10-14-2004, 11:55 AM
|
#22
|
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Nowhere
Posts: 40,924
|
RE: 368 Economists against Kerrynomics
I actually enjoyed reading that doggy. Don't agree with you but it was worth reading anyways.
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:37 AM.
|