2018 Free Agency / Armchair GM Thread

[saclare]

Originally Posted by Underdog

So it looks like Wes reached out to Boogie about his achilles injury... I wonder if they discussed FA plans as well?
https://theundefeated.com/features/n...training-camp/

He mentions chess and other board games, but what about connect 4?

[EricaLubarsky]

Draft Mitchell, Bagley, or Porter

Trade for KAT
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ace-internally

[DevinHarriswillstart]

No thanks. KAT, Nurkic, and Valanciunas all suffer from the same thing...too big, too slow, don't play defense or is too slow to switch. Those types of lumbering centers are a thing of the past and was proven in this year's playoffs. They were all exposed at one point or another.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

No thanks. KAT, Nurkic, and Valanciunas all suffer from the same thing...too big, too slow, don't play defense or is too slow to switch. Those types of lumbering centers are a thing of the past and was proven in this year's playoffs. They were all exposed at one point or another.

So “no” to Ayton and Bamba too?

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

So “no” to Ayton and Bamba too?

Those two are, from what I've seen, are significantly quicker than any of those three.

In fact, I'd say that's exactly what sets this big man class apart from other drafts. All four of those guys are mobile. Bamba is likely the slowest of them, but he is by no means slow for center standards.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Those two are, from what I've seen, are significantly quicker than any of those three.

In fact, I'd say that's exactly what sets this big man class apart from other drafts. All four of those guys are mobile. Bamba is likely the slowest of them, but he is by no means slow for center standards.

Yeah, Bamba looks like he’s lumbering up the floor with those long limbs, but he’s not lagging behind. Dude moves just fine.

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

No thanks. KAT, Nurkic, and Valanciunas all suffer from the same thing...too big, too slow, don't play defense or is too slow to switch. Those types of lumbering centers are a thing of the past and was proven in this year's playoffs. They were all exposed at one point or another.

I’m not convinced that Bamba is much faster or more athletic than those three. I would say Val is the quickest and most explosive out of those three examples. They were all considered mobile big men when they entered the league.

This is about Val from draft.net
“Very fluid athlete ... Runs the court well for a center ... Good quickness and solid explosiveness/leaping ability ... “

They give him an 8 for athleticism. Bamba was given a 7.

“A solid athlete, but much of his wow factor is due to length and not explosiveness or leaping ability”

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

No thanks. KAT, Nurkic, and Valanciunas all suffer from the same thing...too big, too slow, don't play defense or is too slow to switch. Those types of lumbering centers are a thing of the past and was proven in this year's playoffs. They were all exposed at one point or another.

100% agreed. Also KAT is not what people have propped him up to be. He was a top 5 worst rim protector statistically last season. He was trash in the playoffs too. I want no part.

[spreedom]

I 100% would trade our pick for KAT. Problem is, there's no chance Minnesota lets him go for just that.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

You must not have watched the playoffs. Val looked like he was running in mud most of that series.

[FreshJive]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

You must not have watched the playoffs. Val looked like he was running in mud most of that series.

Gobert at times too. I’m just saying, don’t be surprised if Bamba doesn’t look so athletic when he gets switched out on an nba guard or forward next season. I like him the more I see, but it’s hard to judge from college highlights. It would have been nice if he had participated in the combine agility drills.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by FreshJive

Gobert at times too. I’m just saying, don’t be surprised if Bamba doesn’t look so athletic when he gets switched out on an nba guard or forward next season. I like him the more I see, but it’s hard to judge from college highlights. It would have been nice if he had participated in the combine agility drills.

This is why JJJ remains the better pick/prospect.

[Me.B]

Not sure how much truth there is to this.

http://www.slamonline.com/nba/maveri...n-free-agency/

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Me.B

Not sure how much truth there is to this.

http://www.slamonline.com/nba/maveri...n-free-agency/

Rumors until it happens, but it 100% fits Cuban's M.O.

All of those guys-- including Randle-- would play center for us.

Mavs draft a Porter, Bridges, Doncic, or Bagley. One of those guys WILL be available. Mavs sign a center. We could definitely be .500 and maybe even grab the 8th spot before being swept.

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Mavs draft a Porter, Bridges, Doncic, or Bagley. One of those guys WILL be available. Mavs sign a center. We could definitely be .500 and maybe even grab the 8th spot before being swept.

That last part of being swept was so spot on yet so damn funny.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by Me.B

Not sure how much truth there is to this.

http://www.slamonline.com/nba/maveri...n-free-agency/

Yuck. To all 3. If thats the plan, they've learned nothing. Hoping this is just smoke

[tap2390]

No one outside of George, Gordon, and Capela (assuming Rockets are deadset on Lebron, we may be able to steal Capela if we get an offer sheet in quick enough) is worth pursuing.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Yeah, people were poopooing my Deandre idea, but if the Mavs don't draft a center, then they'll have few options this summer to upgrade.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by tap2390

No one outside of George, Gordon, and Capela (assuming Rockets are deadset on Lebron, we may be able to steal Capela if we get an offer sheet in quick enough) is worth pursuing.

Remember though that beggars can rarely be choosers. Just getting someone interested in coming to a medium-sized market, rebuilding team is a tough task.

That's why I'd rather blow everything trying to get another high pick versus relying on another summer FA disappointment.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

Remember though that beggars can rarely be choosers. Just getting someone interested in coming to a medium-sized market, rebuilding team is a tough task.

That's why I'd rather blow everything trying to get another high pick versus relying on another summer FA disappointment.

Completely agree. FA is not looking great. Give up some combination of cap space and the 2019 pick for something (DeRozan or a 2018 pick IMO).

[spreedom]

Obviously I think most of us here despise DAJ for good reasons, but I would welcome a dominating rebounder/lob finisher for the next 3-4 years, if for no other reason but to help with DSJ's development. I think my preference of the three is in the order of the article: DAJ, Boogie, Randle.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by spreedom

Obviously I think most of us here despise DAJ for good reasons, but I would welcome a dominating rebounder/lob finisher for the next 3-4 years, if for no other reason but to help with DSJ's development. I think my preference of the three is in the order of the article: DAJ, Boogie, Randle.

I prefer to win 20 games in the next 3-4 years combined than having that clown on my team.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by sefant77

I prefer to win 20 games in the next 3-4 years combined than having that clown on my team.

Yes. What an integrity lacking move. No. Fuck him. Wasted our time and then his team left him and he needs to live out his karma.

[Zeus]

Originally Posted by sefant77

I prefer to win 20 games in the next 3-4 years combined than having that clown on my team.

I would prefer to win 20 games and stockpile picks and build the right way. Hopefully hit on several picks over the next 2 years and then add a key free agent. A lumbering Center is the last thing we need in a league where people have discovered a 3 point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Zeus

A lumbering Center is the last thing we need in a league where people have discovered a 3 point shot is worth more than a 2 point shot.

ECF
6'10" Hortford vs. 6'9" Tristan Thompson,

WCF
6'10" Capela, vs. 6'7" Green

Those are the centers starting in the ECF and WCF. No team with a seven footer made it out of the conference semis.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

ECF
6'10" Hortford vs. 6'9" Tristan Thompson,

WCF
6'10" Capela, vs. 6'7" Green

Those are the centers starting in the ECF and WCF. No team with a seven footer made it out of the conference semis.

And of those 4 "centers", 2 of them shoot 3+ 3s a game. Man has the league changed...

[Me.B]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

ECF

6'10" Hortford vs. 6'9" Tristan Thompson,



WCF

6'10" Capela, vs. 6'7" Green



Those are the centers starting in the ECF and WCF. No team with a seven footer made it out of the conference semis.

So the most likely scenario might actually be the best one. Bamba goes 2 or 3 followed by Doncic and Bagley. Leaving Jackson at 5. He’s raw but has the potential to be that stretch 5 who also plays good defense. It’s also been reported that the Mavs are definitely in the market for a big in FA. Julius Randle would actually be a good fit next to Jackson. With Dirk and Holger helping Randle he should be able to develop a consistent mid range game. Playing under Carlisle his defense should also improve.

I don’t want to pay Randle max money though. Ideally I’d like him to take less so that the Mavs could also sign Kentavious Caldwell Pope.

A core of:

Jackson
Randle
Barnes
Pope
Dennis

Would not be a bad young core at all. Then you go into the trade deadline or next off season with Wes and JJ expiring. They should be able to flip those two for a draft pick or at worse they can use the cap space.

[EricaLubarsky]

I think KAT, Randle, and a healthy Cousins would all get us to at least 40-44 games. Maybe Jordan too.

If you're looking at $$$, that's a great position to be in. You sell some tickets and people watch more if we're even .500

If you're looking at actually making a splash in the playoffs, it's not great. It's easy to go to a yard sale and get enough talent to scrape the playoffs. It's way harder to go from that to winning playoff series.

[EricaLubarsky]

Analysis
It's simple. In 1997 (the year before Dirk was drafted), around 84% of shots were twos (threes only made up around 16% of all FGA). The majority of those (58%) were within three feet. A center inside could contest up to 48.7% of shots by hanging out in or near the paint.

In 2018, only 68.5% of shots were twos (31.5% of shots taken were threes). A reduction in the importance of the mid-range jumper meant that a higher percentage of twos were within three feet (60% of twos), but that only made 41.1% of FGA that were in the paint and thus easily contested by a traditional center.

In addition to threes diminishing the number of shots in the paint that a center could contest, the increasing number of threes also means that more rebounds are ending up further from the basket. Those rebounds depend on high-mobility guards and forwards to rebound, further diminishing the value of the big, lumbering center.

TLDR version:

Since 1997, the number of shots inside that can be contested by a center has shrunk by around 8%
Since 1997 the number of rebounds available inside has shrunk (although there isn't a good stat to track distance from hoop when rebound is secured)
since 1997 the mid-range game has taken a huge hit. Teams are increasingly scoring either inside or outside the three point line.

Disclaimer
Close twos= I added up all shots classified as "dunks", "layups", and "close"
Midrange = I took the total FGA and subtracted shots from behind the arc as well as those classified as "close twos"
My analysis does not account for FTs, since it's impossible to determine where inside the arc the foul took place or even to find an aggregate of where the FTs came from, particularly going back more than five years. We know from experience that players are fouled attempting shots inside the 3pt line more than outside it, but it's hard to do a statistical analysis.

Sources
82games.com
basketballreference.com
nba.com
Graph linked from businessinsider

[SMC0007]

But can he dunk and defend the rim?

[tap2390]

One crazy idea -- does the emergence of Tatum and Brown make Hayward expendable to the Celtics?

Wes & protected 2019 1st rounder

for

Gordon Hayward


Celtics continue to emphasize development of Tatum and Brown, gain a vet with an expiring contract who fits their squad extremely well (especially with Smart leaving and Irving coming back), and get a 1st round pick.

Mavs absorb the extra $12 million and gain a much need shot creator. This allows the Mavs to stick with a big man in the draft.

[sefant77]

Not going to happen.

They keep Hayward and ship Brown and Rozier to SA for kawhi

Btw a few here wanted Smart. He just told he is worth more than 12-14m a year...so hell no.

[Underdog]

Yeah, the value of every Celtic just shot through the roof with this series.

[tap2390]

If we don’t have an offer sheet to Capela the first day of free agency we’re doing it wrong. He was by far the best, most versatile defender on the floor in the playoffs. Rockets aren’t a lock to match, especially if they have their sights on Lebron.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by tap2390

If we don’t have an offer sheet to Capela the first day of free agency we’re doing it wrong. He was by far the best, most versatile defender on the floor in the playoffs. Rockets aren’t a lock to match, especially if they have their sights on Lebron.

Capela's cap hold is only 7m. If 7m was stopping Houston from getting Lebron some other way would be available other than letting a franchise center walk imo.

[EricaLubarsky]

Thing with the Rockets is that they're at 78mill without Paul, Ariza, and only 8 guys on the roster. Cap is going to be around 108.

Paul - max contract (35mill)
Capela - max contract (25mill)

Those two alone would put them over the cap, however, they're no better than the team that keeps getting wrecked by the Warriors. If they let Capela/Paul go, I don't see them competing. If they re-sign guys, they're only as good as they were this past season.

At least Harden is getting his 31mill

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Thing with the Rockets is that they're at 78mill without Paul, Ariza, and only 8 guys on the roster. Cap is going to be around 108.

Paul - max contract (35mill)
Capela - max contract (25mill)

Those two alone would put them over the cap, however, they're no better than the team that keeps getting wrecked by the Warriors. If they let Capela/Paul go, I don't see them competing. If they re-sign guys, they're only as good as they were this past season.

At least Harden is getting his 31mill

Can't they go over the cap to keep both? What are their cap holds?

EDIT: Never mind, looked it up -- Capela is only $7m, but Paul is a whopping $35m... I wonder if Cuban offers Capela max just to F with Morey and force Houston into the luxury tax early? At worst we land a max player who appears to be worth his salt.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Can't they go over the cap to keep both? What are their cap holds?

EDIT: Never mind, looked it up -- Capela is only $7m, but Paul is a whopping $35m... I wonder if Cuban offers Capela max just to F with Morey and force Houston into the luxury tax early? At worst we land a max player who appears to be worth his salt.

They can go over to sign Capela, Paul, and even Ariza

They can't, however, go over to grab a LeBron or George.

78mill - current cap hit
35mill - Paul
25mill - Capela
---------------
138mill (without Ariza)

Cap is 108mill. Tax threshold at 123mill. If Paul demands the max and we force them to re-sign Capela at 25mill, we'll either get Capela or we'll force Rockets not only over the cap, but into the tax.

[sefant77]

Morey is going to pay Paul and Capela or he is looking at a trainwreck at roster. His ego wont let this happen. The owner is also not a cheap ass like Alexander.

They re-sign Paul and Capela and let Ariza walk. In 2019 they try to dump Ryan with a 1st or stretch him to reduce the tax bill...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

To be fair, they were arguably a Paul injury away from advancing.

However, Paul always gets hurt, so it's interesting to see how that all turns out.