2015-16 Predictions

[spreedom]

With about a week to go before teams are going to be making final cuts and setting their regular-season rosters, I thought I'd make a fun "Predict the season" type of thread. My humble offering:

West:

1. Golden State - I like the champs to have another dominant regular season. Their depth is still incredible, and they are essentially bringing the whole gang back, with Jason Thompson filling David Lee's role in a much better fit. Wouldn't surprise me to see them win 65+ again, but I'd guess they'll win closer to 60 this year after taking everybody's best shot.
2. San Antonio - I think the Spurs are going to be really, really good. Swapping out Jeff Ayres and Splitter for LaMarcus Aldridge seems almost unfair, and I think LMA's presence offensively will allow Tony Parker to have something of a bounceback season, but the real engine that will drive the team is Kawhi Leonard. I see an MVP caliber season this year for him. 55-58 wins.
3. Oklahoma City - Durant and Westbrook might have their best year as a tandem this year, and their offensive firepower is impressive, but I'm not sold on a team with so many defensive question marks. To me, the only impact defenders in their top 8 are Westbrook, Ibaka and Steven Adams (who will likely play less than 25mpg with a healthy Ibaka and Kanter in front of him). Waiters is not a good player, and honestly they should probably have Morrow playing more minutes because of the needs he fills, but I see Waiters getting a lot of burn for this team unless they trade him. I see OKC good for 55-57 wins.
4. Houston - Fully healthy and focused, this is probably the best group of rotation players in the NBA, but you have to wonder how much Dwight will play and if Lawson is going to have his head in the game -- his recent comments concerning his stint in rehab are concerning to me. I assume they'll start Beverly to as to surround Harden with two good perimeter defenders. Harden probably has a more efficient year from the field if they stay relatively healthy. 53-56 wins.
5. LA Clippers - Man, oh man, am I rooting for these guys to fail... spectacularly. Not many likable dudes on this roster. They have the potential to be a top two-ish seed, but I just don't know about the SF spot (do you start the really bad Wes Johnson and keep Pierce fresh?) or the bench (if you start Pierce, they have two explosive, yet redundant, guards in Crawford and Stephenson). Also, while I think Doc Rivers is a very good motivator, I don't think much of him as a coach. 53-55 wins, or it could go really well and they could push for 60.
6. Memphis - I like the Grizzlies a lot, but I just don't know if they have enough firepower to win playoff games on the road. They're a lock for 50 wins, but I don't really see how they win 55 unless they have a lot of luck with health (both keeping their guys on the floor and running into banged-up teams at the right time). In my perfect world, the wheels fall off early (maybe Zach Randolph is totally washed up) and Mike Conley bolts for Dallas next summer. A man can dream...
7. New Orleans - I don't love the idea of Anthony Davis fine-tuning his three point shot, as I'd rather see him beef up and become what we all thought Dwight Howard would as the prototypical small-ball, freak-athlete center, but I think the Pellies are primed for a pretty big season. David might win the MVP. I do think there's a decent chance Gentry eschews the traditional center, benching Asik and Ajinca/Perkins. I see them winning 45-49 games.
8. Phoenix - I see the potential for this to turn into a dumpster fire with the Markieff Morris drama, but I also respect the transformative impact a healthy Tyson Chandler can have on a locker room. Phoenix's training staff is right up there with the Mavs', and assuming Tyson stays on the floor, the Suns are going to be dangerous, versatile, and pretty fun to watch. I'm not a huge fan of the Bledsoe/Knight duo, as I think they share a lot of the same strengths and tendencies, and I think you're better off with Bledsoe as a big PG with a 3-and-D SG to complement him. They still have the potential to be really, really good this year though. 44-47 wins and the 8th seed.
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9. Utah - maybe the best defensive team in the league this year, as they were last year after trading Kanter. I don't like their probable backcourt rotation at all, even if Burke was going to be playing, but up front, Hayward/Favors/Gobert is a great complementary trio, and Gobert obviously has DPOY potential. If they had one really dependable bench scorer (or another strong offensive player period), or anything resembling a starting-caliber PG on the roster, I'd have put them in at #8.
10. Dallas - I've got a bad feeling about this one, brother. If we knew we'd get 75+ games from every major rotation player, I think this team could push for 45-50 wins, but with all three of Deron/Wes/Chandler as question marks to say the least, this could go off the rails (or never even get on them to begin with) in a hurry. The only thing I could see as far as the Mavs getting into the playoffs would be if they rolled the dice on an early-season trade that really worked, either for a starting caliber center or maybe a more explosive point guard. It just doesn't look like any sort of postseason run is in the cards this year though. Might win 40 or fewer. I'd bet on fewer if I had to pick one.
11. Sacramento - What an amazing disaster this is going to be. There's so much mismatched, ill-fitting talent crammed into the roster that they almost have to win 35 games by default, but holy shit there is no chance they're going to win 40 or more. I don't think much of George Karl as a coach, and when things start getting really tough DeMarcus Cousins is going to have a short fuse, and this has all of the makings of the most hilarious team we've had since the Jail Blazers.
12. Minnesota - I live in Minneapolis and plan to go to a bunch of Wolves games this year, as they're going to be fun to watch for all of the opposite reasons the Kings will be. They're going to be flying up and down the floor, blocking shots, playing exciting defense, probably not being worth much in the halfcourt, but for the first time in YEARS this team has a genuine sense of optimism surrounding it. If Rubio doesn't figure things out by the end of this year I think they'll look to move him, but at the same time, he's still only freaking 24, and even if he never figures out how to shoot he can still be a starting-caliber point guard on a playoff team. It'll be interesting to see what happens with the shooting guard spot and if Kevin Martin gets dealt by the deadline (my guess would be yes, but they also aren't in any cap trouble so they can afford to keep him if they don't like their offers). Not quite enough experience or offense to make a run at the playoffs this year, but they're going to be on at my apartment whenever the Mavs aren't.
13. Denver - Mudiay has got to be the Rookie of the Year frontrunner at this point... I could see him having a season like Tyreke Evans had a few years ago with the Kings, where his overall numbers are all pretty good (albeit inefficient) while he is mostly surrounded by lackluster talent. I do think there's some potential for them to be a very good team three or four years from now, but that would likely be with Mudiay, Nurkic, and a completely different core. I have faith that Michael Malone can install a system that's conducive to winning, but it isn't going to be this year. I think this will be the year Faried gets dealt, whether it's by the deadline or next summer.
14. LA Lakers - I am not looking forward to having the Lakers on my screen for any reason this year. I sort of like Hibbert as a potential Mavs trade/FA target at the deadline or next summer, but I do think he has to have something of a bounce back year for that to really be a viable option. I think there's potential that he has a great year as a huge middle finger to Larry Bird and the Pacers, as they seemed very eager to scapegoat him publicly and traded him for nothing. I wish I could look at this roster and be excited for the handful of young guys that seem to have potential as future NBA starters (Russell, Clarkson and Randle), but you and I both know this is going to be another vanity project of a season led by Kobe heaving up 25 shots per game. Lakers might be the worst team in the NBA this season. If not them, then....
15. Portland - I don't totally get what Portland's plan this past summer was, but I don't hate it either. I think Aminu makes more sense as a $7.5M per year guy if he's going to be your 5th best starter and you're pushing for the playoffs, but on this Blazers team he might be their second best player! Trading for Vonleh was a shrewd move, as was signing Ed Davis, but Vonleh is a few years away from being ready for major minutes, and Davis is probably one of those "great if he's your fourth big, pretty good as your third big" type of guys. I don't fault them for signing him since they had tons of cap space (and still do), but he's not quite bad enough where you can play him major minutes and tank, nor is he good enough to start and win a bunch of games for you. All of that said, however, I wish he was on the Mavs. I see Portland and Philadelphia in a tight race for the top pick this year. And I totally want Damian Lillard on my fantasy team.

Warriors over Suns
Rockets over Clippers
Thunder over Grizzlies
Spurs over Pelicans

Warriors over Rockets
Spurs over Thunder

Spurs over Warriors

East:

1. Cleveland - Tristan Thompson bullshit aside, the Cavaliers are going to absolutely maul teams in the East this year. I don't have a clue who their starting shooting guard is (JR Smith? LOL) or if Kyrie Irving is going to be healthy out of the gate (I have a hard time believing the whole "he'll be out until January" thing was totally untrue), and maybe Thompson holds out into the regular season, but who in the hell is going to stand up to these guys even with those question marks? Cavs might have the East clinched by the first week of March. 56-60 wins with or without a healthy roster.
2. Miami - Tons of question marks health-wise on the roster, but let's assume what could reasonably be called a not-quite-worst-case scenario: Wade plays 55 games, Deng misses 20-25 games, Whiteside has multiple blow-ups, McRoberts can't stay healthy, and Bosh takes 30 games to round back into form. With all of that happening, you still have, at worst, the 4th-best roster in the East. I'll split the difference between that scenario and another one where every starter is fully healthy... that team wins 53-55 without much trouble.
3. Washington - I saw them starting Kris Humphries next to Gortat for a preseason game last week and I think that's a really good move (wait... did Wittman do it? Disaster waiting to happen). Nene and Gortat aren't a great fit next to each other (and let's be honest, as much as Nene is a pretty good NBA player, there aren't many bigs he is a good fit next to) and Humphries has always been an extremely productive rebounder when he gets the minutes. I think there's a decent chance they overtake Miami if the Heat have some injury trouble, but I think their ceiling is a little lower so I kept them in third. The only thing that could derail this team and knock them into the lower half of the playoff seeds would be a major injury (Beal or Wall) or if that Durant chatter gets too loud for them to ignore further. I think the most likely scenario is that they all stay on their best behavior and do an audition of sorts to be Kevin Durant's new supporting cast (and boy, would I like it if he went out East and tried to take on the Cavs). 50-54 wins.
4. Chicago - They seem like they've been the presumptive number two team in the East for the past few years, but I will have to see them succeed in Hoiberg's system at a high level before I believe it. Don't get me wrong, I think Hoiberg is going to be a good NBA coach (though I wish he would have joined a younger team like Minnesota), but I just don't know if you can successfully install such a night-and-day new approach overnight and have it work right away. I want to see Joakim Noah have a bounceback year, and I can't imagine he'll be worse than he was last year, but I'm not sure that he or Rose are ever going to be fully healthy again. I find myself rooting against Rose a little more every time he opens his mouth, and I think he's one of the least-worthy MVPs ever, so I'm not counting on him to have an MVP caliber season ever again. The Bulls will go as far as Jimmy Butler can carry them this year, though I do have concerns that Hoiberg has recently stated that he doesn't envision Butler defending the opposition's best swingman every night (really, you're going with Tony Snell? Butler's a young guy, ride him on both ends of the floor!). I also think the team is really going to miss Dunleavy on both ends of the floor while he's out. I see 46-50 wins for the Bulls.
5. Milwaukee - They also have the potential to jump as high as third or even second if everything breaks in their favor. I think Middleton/Monroe is a great 1-2, inside-outside combo, and their length/athleticism is off the charts, but I wonder with them, just like I do with the Jazz, if they can score enough to win with consistency. MCW is an extremely mediocre starting point guard (though I do think he could improve greatly by watching Jason Kidd tape) and Antetokounmpo could be a top 4 or 5 SF by the time he fully develops, but is a long way from that right now. Defense will carry them a lot of nights, and if the Greek Freak turns into a good offensive player, they're going to push for 50 wins as well. I have them at 45-47.
6. Atlanta - They're my pick for the biggest faller in the East. Overall their roster is still pretty good, but losing JYD, their best perimeter player, is going to really hurt them. I hope and expect Al Horford to have another healthy season and hope to see him be more assertive offensively as well (and don't tell the Hawks, but this is another scenario where I hope everything goes to shit and he slides into that Dallas cap room this coming summer). I think Splitter is going to work wonders for them on pick and rolls (and dives to the rim in general) and will hopefully spell Horford frequently enough to keep him fresh, but I think when the chips are down, you aren't going to be able to rely on Sefolosha and Justin Holiday as your primary wing defenders, particularly with their limitations on offense. 42-45 wins.
7. Toronto - I have no idea what to think of Toronto. I want to put them above the Bucks and Hawks, but I just don't get a great feeling about how they're going to come out this year after melting down over the second half of last year (and the playoffs... woof!). I think the DeMarre Carroll signing was a good one, and he'll probably get a lot of time in small ball lineups as a four, but I'm just not sure they're going to be very good this season. I think Lowry has a bounceback year of sorts (though to be fair, he was the best PG in the East until right before the All Star break last season... just a spectacular failure afterwards) as he's looked trim, engaged and energetic through the preseason, I just don't really know whats to really like about Toronto. I don't think much of DeRozan or especially Ross in the roles they're currently in, and while the Valanciunas contract was a worthy gamble, I thought he would be a lot better defensively than he's been to this point in his career. I dunno, maybe they put things back together and push for 50 wins again, I just don't know how much faith I have in the roster (and I think Dwane Casey, fair or not, is living on borrowed time as the coach). 41-44 wins.
8. Boston - These guys are in need of an alpha dog in the worst way, as I'm sure they attempted to address in the offseason while reportedly pursuing Kevin Love (a signing I would have loved, by the way). Their best player, Isaiah Thomas, might not even be their starter, and might not even be a starting-caliber guard on a playoff team. David Lee and Amir Johnson seem to complement each other well as the presumptive starters, but I'm not sure I love either guy as a starter right now (especially if they're possibly your 2nd and 3rd best starters) but I do think they're good enough to get them into the playoffs. I think a lot of Brad Stevens as a coach (as in, he might be the 4th or 5th best coach in the entire league right now) but I'm not sure they've really improved over last year. They could end up finishing higher than Atlanta and Toronto if they make a trade of some sort during the season, and I think they have a decent chance at overtaking at least one of them, but their lack of a true go-to guy (or depth in the frontcourt) is going to limit their potential. 40-43 wins.
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9. Indiana - I'm torn between Indiana, Orlando and Boston for the 8th seed. The Pacers clearly need frontcourt help (and while I understand the Hibbert trade, I don't agree with it regardless of their clear goal to get more athletic) but Paul George is so freaking good, man. Let's not forget that just a couple of years ago a lot of people were talking about him as a top five NBA player and an MVP candidate. Maybe he wasn't that, but he was at least in those conversations, and my assumption is that he'll be back up to speed before the end of the season. The question is, can Paul George and George Hill team up to carry the rest of this mediocre roster to the playoffs? I feel like they're one quality starter away from making the postseason, but to be honest they might just lock down the perimeter, run up and down the floor, and finish like 5th or 6th in the East. Who knows. They might be better than Milwaukee. Just tough to predict that will actually happen considering their lack of depth. 37-42 wins.
10. Orlando - I like the Magic and their rebuilding plan... I mean, look at where they were five years ago: fresh off of a Finals appearance, with the two-time reigning DPOY and MVP candidate Dwight Howard in his prime leading the way. Things fell apart pretty quickly after that, but to Orlando's credit they've really restocked the cupboard and have been on an accelerated rebuilding plan since they traded Dwight. I think the Payton/Oladipo/Gordon trio could play together at a high level for another decade, and if they can put complementary pieces in at the three and five, this roster is already good to go. I like Vucci Mane at center, but I think they need a more traditional shotblocker if they want to take the next step (though to be fair, Vucevic was lowkey a top 20-ish player last season statistically). I think Skiles is a really, really, really good hire for them because he'll instill a defensive discipline with their core guys, though they absolutely must have an exit strategy for him before the end of year three, because history tells us that is how long players will put up with his overtly aggressive temper. I see 33-37 wins and much-improved defense. Potential for a playoff berth here as well.
11. Detroit - I think there's a decent chance that moving on from Greg Monroe is going to solve a lot of problems for them this coming season, and year two with Van Gundy and Drummond is bound to yield better results than they had last year, but I don't think the roster as currently constructed is going to make the playoffs and have success with similar principles as those great Magic teams from five years ago. To me, their only reliable three-point shooter is Jodie Meeks, and even he hasn't been more than an above-average shooter year-after-year. I think KCP has a chance at taking that big third-year step as a scorer and a shooter, but even if you can run with those two on the wings, I don't think Reggie Jackson is above-average as a point guard in many ways other than the pick and roll (which, for their sake, the Pistons had better run almost every time down the floor when Jackson/Drummond are both in the game). I do see them making moderate improvements over last year's play, but I don't know which of the above teams I'd rank them higher than. They might be more ready to win now than Orlando, and might have a more balanced roster than the Pacers, but I don't see all of the pieces lining up yet. 33-35 wins.
12. Charlotte - I understand but don't like the Hornets' plan this past summer. Towards the end of the year, playoffs out of reach, they put some pretty good time into getting Vonleh some on-court experience, and I feel like he was showing signs of being ready to play real minutes, but then they traded him for Nicolas Batum. Don't get me wrong, Batum is a very good defensive player and a decent offensive player, but he's also a guy whose best days are probably behind him, and he doesn't seem to be a great fit next to your best (albeit injured and out for the season) player in MKG. I also think trading Lance Stephenson was a no-brainer, but really, was Spencer Hawes the best return you could get for him? Was nobody willing to trade him into cap space? I think Hawes has very serious negative value at this point and he isn't a guy that is going to be any use playing next to Al Jefferson. I just don't think there are any pieces on this roster, other than MKG who will hopefully be back at 100% next year, that are long-term solutions in their current roles. Walker/Lin both seem like they should be a rung lower than they are (Walker as a second-unit guy, Lin as a middle-of-the-bench guy instead of a likely 6th man type) and while I think Al Jefferson has done a very admirable job carrying this franchise for the past few years, I just really don't think a lot of slow-footed centers that aren't very good at defending in the post. Who knows with this roster... could win 35-38 games, could win 28-33.
13. New York - I think I'm probably underrating how many solid NBA players they added to their roster this past summer (considering who else was available at the time, Afflalo and especially Lopez seem to be good pickups) but I just don't have any faith in Fisher as a coach or Melo as a centerpiece at this stage of his career. Don't get me wrong, Melo has been very successful in his career and maybe gets too much flak for the team's failure last year and his enormous contract, which he had every right to sign, but I don't think you can win playoff series with Melo as your undisputed, head-and-shoulders best player. I think he can be a #1 option on a good team (see the Knicks from a few seasons ago) but if you don't have the right complementary pieces around him, you just can't win. I think Lopez is a great fit next to Melo, but he probably shouldn't be the second-best player on your team (while, again, being at least a couple of rungs below Melo). Calderon is a great triangle point guard but the triangle isn't a good system unless you have MJ/Pippen or Kobe/Shaq running it. Sorry Knicks fans, this is probably going to be another long season. 27-32 wins.
14. Brooklyn - Yikes. I didn't realize I had the Nets this low until now, but this roster sucks. I could see an argument for them being better than the Knicks (and TBH they probably are) but what about this team really gets you excited for this season? I hope Brook Lopez can stay healthy, because he's one of the four or five best two-way centers in the league when he is, but even with him on the floor for 75+ games you just don't know what you're getting from the rest of the roster, particularly in the backcourt. Jarrett Jack is not a starting guard whether he's playing the lead or off-guard, Bogdanovic is a big question mark, and Joe Johnson is probably too slow to play the two in today's NBA. I also don't think much of Thaddeus Young as a starting PF but he's probably the third or fourth best player on this team. This is a team with no playoff hopes this year and no real sign for optimism in the future. If Joe Johnson's contract was tradable, I'd say they're a candidate for tanking, but not only are they already extremely bad, but $25M is nearly impossible to move when you figure it's a playoff contender that would be looking at that sort of trade. 25-30 wins.
15. Philadelphia - I barely want to dignify this team with a brief statement, but I will say this: at least they have a cheap terrible backcourt. I think Wroten is the only guard on this roster that cracks the rotation for most playoff teams, but even then he's probably a fourth guard -- his numbers are great, and I don't think he's selfish with the ball at all, but he's very obviously putting up numbers on a bad team. I'd take him on the Mavs in a heartbeat, but I don't know if right now he's even better than old, probably-washed-up Deron Williams. And if what we've heard about Embiid is true (that he's a lazy asshole who's drinking pitchers of Shirley Temples at bowling alleys instead of following the team's workout regimen), they might not be good for a long, long time yet. They probably have their long-term starters at the four and five with Noel and Okafor, but all of the other starting spots (and the three or four rotation backups) need to get a lot better if they even want to contend for the playoffs in the East. In the East! 15-20 wins.

Cavaliers over Celtics
Bucks over Bulls
Wizards over Hawks
Heat over Raptors

Cavaliers over Bucks
Wizards over Heat

Cavaliers over Wizards

2015-16 NBA Champions: San Antonio Spurs

What say you?