Rondo?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

LOL. Are we watching the same team? Mavs have the best offense of ALL-TIME in terms of points per possession.

Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.

Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.

We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams

Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets

I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.

[PartywithDirk]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.

Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.

We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams

Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets

I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.

Possibly OKC...what do you think Westbrook does to Nelson/Harris/Barea?

[iggymcfly]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.

Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.

We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams

Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets

I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.

We've played 7 championship contending teams. 6 of those games were on the road and we went 2-5. One of the losses was by 1 in San Antonio and one was by 3 in Houston which suggests that if we'd had an equal home/road split in those games, we'd be right around .500. I don't see why record against West contenders is more meaningful than record against contenders overall, especially with such a small sample. Toronto's just as good as Portland and Houston. And even if you want to quibble on including Chicago, they certainly have an elite defense, so if your hypothesis is that we can't get it done against top defenses, then that performance is still a very useful data point there. And again, playing Chicago on the road is just as tough as playing a top West contender at home. Obviously, if you parse the numbers down enough, you can make them say whatever you want, but I haven't seen any evidence so far that the Mavs offense can't get it done against top teams.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

We've played 7 championship contending teams. 6 of those games were on the road and we went 2-5. One of the losses was by 1 in San Antonio and one was by 3 in Houston which suggests that if we'd had an equal home/road split in those games, we'd be right around .500. I don't see why record against West contenders is more meaningful than record against contenders overall, especially with such a small sample. Toronto's just as good as Portland and Houston. And even if you want to quibble on including Chicago, they certainly have an elite defense, so if your hypothesis is that we can't get it done against top defenses, then that performance is still a very useful data point there. And again, playing Chicago on the road is just as tough as playing a top West contender at home. Obviously, if you parse the numbers down enough, you can make them say whatever you want, but I haven't seen any evidence so far that the Mavs offense can't get it done against top teams.

Only a statistician would say that losing to a team by 1-3 points means that we'd win games against them in the future, particularly when you compare the clutch statistics in each of those games and also take into account that even with a miniscule sample size, we're roughly as good at home as we are on the road. Milwaukee only lost to us by 2 in Dallas and are better at home than on the road. Does that mean that Milwaukee has a good chance of beating us in Milwaukee?

Also, I don't know how you can immediately group games together like playing in Chicago being equal to playing Memphis at home-- a team that is only 4-5 (.444) when playing there.

[iggymcfly]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Only a statistician would say that losing to a team by 1-3 points means that we'd win games against them in the future, particularly when you compare the clutch statistics in each of those games and also take into account that even with a miniscule sample size, we're roughly as good at home as we are on the road. Milwaukee only lost to us by 2 in Dallas and are better at home than on the road. Does that mean that Milwaukee has a good chance of beating us in Milwaukee?

Also, I don't know how you can immediately group games together like playing in Chicago being equal to playing Memphis at home-- a team that is only 4-5 (.444) when playing there.

So how much do you really believe this stuff about our homecourt being worse than other teams or the Mavs specifically being bad against good defenses? Like do you really think we're less than 50% to beat the Spurs Saturday or are you just posturing for the sake of argument? If I could make the bet now with someone completely reliable, I'd be ecstatic to take the Mavericks even money to win that game for a large amount of money.

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

So how much do you really believe this stuff about our homecourt being worse than other teams or the Mavs specifically being bad against good defenses? Like do you really think we're less than 50% to beat the Spurs Saturday or are you just posturing for the sake of argument? If I could make the bet now with someone completely reliable, I'd be ecstatic to take the Mavericks even money to win that game for a large amount of money.

Good thing you don't live in Vegas.

[iggymcfly]

Originally Posted by tap2390

Good thing you don't live in Vegas.

Guarantee you there's not a sportsbook in Vegas stupid enough to offer me even money on Dallas at home vs. San Antonio. We'll probably be favored by like 3.5.