View Poll Results: Should we trade for Rajon Rondo?
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Yes, get Rondo at all costs.
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12 |
29.27% |
It depends what we give up.
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26 |
63.41% |
No, I don't want him at all.
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3 |
7.32% |
12-18-2014, 02:22 PM
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#121
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,938
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Well, I mean, if Haralabos doesn't like it...
__________________
"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
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12-18-2014, 02:26 PM
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#122
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grndmstr_c
Well, I mean, if Haralabos doesn't like it...
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He's made tens of millions of dollars betting basketball starting almost from scratch. He definitely knows more about basketball than anyone on this forum. Don't know why you wouldn't be interested in his opinion.
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12-18-2014, 02:26 PM
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#123
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
It's below league average for a starting NBA PG, but he's closer to league average than he is to Devin Harris defensively. It's a small, incremental upgrade. I read Haralabos Voulgaris on Twitter a lot. He's the most successful NBA bettor in the world, and he spends 50+ hours a week watching NBA soecifically focusing on individual defense so he can chart the value of each player defensively where statistics are a lot less reliable. He was constantly ripping Rondo's D as being vastly overrated and below league average even back when the Celtics were consistently making the playoffs and he still had young legs and was consistently putting in good effort. Rondo's been MUCH worse than that on D the last 2 years.
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I respect your opinion about him generally, but have a couple of issues
1) Defense is 90% effort and effort is the first thing you lose during rebuilding. Insecurity, lack of talent, tons of roster turnover, a new coach with all new plays.Could anyone in the league keep up their level of play and effort during a time of rebuilding? Add to that Rondo's unhappiness with the direction of your team and I think it's obvious that Rondo isn't playing at his peak even if he still is almost averaging a triple double for the season. Will he turn it around here? I'm not sure, but because he's been playing with less effort while the Celtics have been in transition isn't automatically a hit on him.
2) It's really hard to quantify individual defense, because defense is not 1-on-1 and fundamentals don't equal always equal results. Defense isn't just about contesting shots. It's about getting in their head, taking away their confidence, and making them nervous. It's about making players who are comfortable driving left, drive right. Some of the most effective players in the world were terrible fundamentally, but produced good results. Alvin Robertson was one of the least fundamental players in the league, who was always cheating off his man to play lanes, slapping, clapping, etc., but he was also a top-5 defender of all time. It's about the effect that the defense has rather than the fundamentals. DeShawn Stevenson was the same way. He wasn't fundamental, but he played his buns off and players never felt comfortable with him out there. As we've seen-- we can't just throw Chandler out there and immediately become a top-10 defensive team. Even when Stevenson didn't funnel guys into the team defense, he'd have them off balance and out of their comfort zone.
Even when this current Mavs team plays fundamental defense, we aren't in their heads. Opposing teams are comfortable and confident even when we are contesting shots and funneling to Tyson.
I'm not saying that Rondo is top-10, but like Tyson Chandler, he's also been voted to both NBA defensive first and second teams (2 and 2, vs. Chandler's 1 and 2). He can't hurt as a replacement for Nelson for both his defense and rebounding. We need someone who can make players upset. We need players who can disrupt a team. We need a guy who can rebound (he's currently #1 among PGs in all rebounding stats, including advanced rebounding stats.) Most of all, we need a crazy bastard like Stevenson again.
Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 12-18-2014 at 02:31 PM.
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12-18-2014, 02:33 PM
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#124
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255
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Hold the phones, a professional gambler says it's not a good idea.
If Bob Voulgaris thinks it's "wide open" this year, he clearly didn't watch us get thrashed by the Warriors and Grizzlies.
If we're truly all in, we need to make this move. We won't the championship with Jameer Nelson as our starting PG.
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12-18-2014, 02:33 PM
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#125
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255
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Double post
Last edited by Twenty4sevenn; 12-18-2014 at 02:35 PM.
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12-18-2014, 02:33 PM
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#126
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 5,454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGM
You hit the key point with Wright. I like him but teams with strong inside players abuse him.
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Especially in a division loaded with guys like Gasol, Randolph, Howard, Davis, Asik, Duncan, Splitter, etc...
Love Wright's game but we need to address that front court issue whether we trade for Rondo or not.
Last edited by rimrocker; 12-18-2014 at 02:35 PM.
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12-18-2014, 02:34 PM
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#127
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 7,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
He's made tens of millions of dollars betting basketball starting almost from scratch. He definitely knows more about basketball than anyone on this forum. Don't know why you wouldn't be interested in his opinion.
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More interested in the opinions of Rick and Donnie, which we may know soon enough. Also:
1) I'm sure Harabolamanunus never profited by bluffing with his publicly endorsed opinions.
2) There's betting what's going to happen when two already constructed teams play one another, and then there's constructing a team. Success in the one does not imply any particular talent for the other, especially when you consider the prominent role that brute force statistical modeling and insider information on injuries and the like play in betting success.
__________________
"He's coming off the bench aggressive right away, looking for his shot. If he has any daylight, we need him to shoot the ball. We know it's going in."
-Dirk Nowitzki on Jason Terry, after JET's 16 point 4th quarter against the Pacers.
Last edited by grndmstr_c; 12-18-2014 at 02:35 PM.
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12-18-2014, 02:37 PM
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#128
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255
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There's a difference between outsmarting oddsmakers and knowing more about basketball than an NBA General Manager. Big difference.
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12-18-2014, 02:38 PM
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#129
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Some of you guys who bash the idea before it even happens, need to get some perspective. We aren't going anywhere with our team, as currently constructed, period. Our defense is absolute trash for the better part of the last two seasons. We know that Dirk is signed for three more seasons including this one. That means we won't start any rebuilding before the 2017/2018 season.
So my question, what do we have to lose, even if we sign Rondo to a hefty three-year contract? Nothing, we want to win another championship, and nobody else is really available at the moment. You might as well take a chance at Rondo, maybe it will work. I don't think the chances are great, but you have to try something.
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12-18-2014, 02:39 PM
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#130
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Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 761
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We have to be prepared for 18 min of Greg Smith as back up center.
We have to be prepared for a lot more Parsons at the 4.
I'm not saying you don't do it, but that sounds painful.
Can we get Olynyk out of this if we toss in Jameer or Felton? I know he's not a prize, but he's godda be better than Smith. I don't think they'd give up Zeller.
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12-18-2014, 02:42 PM
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#131
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,885
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Also it will hurt Parsons. He is also a playmaker and wants the ball in his hand often. I agree we need to get better defensively but not in expense of players losing confidence/spacing on offense.There has to be a cheaper option for a defensive minded point guard.
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12-18-2014, 02:43 PM
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#132
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Also, I want to add, Rondo - by almost all account - has been absolutely terrible defensively recently, and he is putting up one of the emptiest numbers ever in the history of the game. I mean, the guy is averaging almost a triple double and his team is better with Smart on the court. With that said, I don't really care about that, he won't play like that on a team with Tyson, Dirk and Carlisle. So again, why not try this? We don't have a realistic shot at trading for an in-form impact player.
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12-18-2014, 02:44 PM
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#133
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick
Some of you guys who bash the idea before it even happens, need to get some perspective. We aren't going anywhere with our team, as currently constructed, period. Our defense is absolute trash for the better part of the last two seasons. We know that Dirk is signed for three more seasons including this one. That means we won't start any rebuilding before the 2017/2018 season.
So my question, what do we have to lose, even if we sign Rondo to a hefty three-year contract? Nothing, we want to win another championship, and nobody else is really available at the moment. You might as well take a chance at Rondo, maybe it will work. I don't think the chances are great, but you have to try something.
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We have a long way to go until we can be an elite offensive team against the great defenses in the league. We have even further to go with our defense and rebounding. Those may not even be possible.
As good as we are offensively, offense can be disrupted. Who cares if we can score, if we can't also defend. In those closing moments of games, we're having troubles defending and getting important rebounds. Even the best offensive team can be disrupted and beaten by a team that can get offensive rebounds, steals, and get to the line.
Our odds right now aren't terrible, but they aren't good either. We're a stacked regular-season team right now as built. I want to keep Wright, but who cares if we go 13-deep if we can't close a game with five?
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12-18-2014, 02:48 PM
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#134
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinylstar
Can we get Olynyk out of this if we toss in Jameer or Felton? I know he's not a prize, but he's godda be better than Smith. I don't think they'd give up Zeller.
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Are you serious? The kid is having an excellent season, putting up 16/8/3 PER36, 11,4/5,6/2 otherwise, with a block and a steal basically, above 60%TS. He recently had a 30/9 game. At the very least, he is an excellent role player in this league. There is absolutely no way the Celtics would trade him for Nelson or Felton. I personally wouldn't trade him for a Wright/Harris package.
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12-18-2014, 02:48 PM
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#135
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick
Some of you guys who bash the idea before it even happens, need to get some perspective. We aren't going anywhere with our team, as currently constructed, period.
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I don't get why this idea is so persistent. We had more roster turnover this offseason than any contender except Cleveland. Those pieces aren't just going to magically reach their optimal level of chemistry and team ball less than 2 months into the season. Hell, the Cavs were the title favorites going into the year and they look like a mess right now. The Heat started out 12-9 when the Big 3 first assembled in Miami. So far, very early in the year, were already playing better than the Spurs or the Clippers. Who's to say that with another couple months under Carlisle we can't become a little better on defense and start challenging for the 2 seed with our current roster?
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12-18-2014, 02:50 PM
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#136
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Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 255
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Rondo is inefficient on defense just like Monta was inefficient on offense before coming here.
A lot changes when you have something to play for and are surrounded by capable teammates.
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12-18-2014, 02:51 PM
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#137
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
We have a long way to go until we can be an elite offensive team against the great defenses in the league. We have even further to go with our defense and rebounding. Those may not even be possible.
As good as we are offensively, offense can be disrupted. Who cares if we can score, if we can't also defend. In those closing moments of games, we're having troubles defending and getting important rebounds. Even the best offensive team can be disrupted and beaten by a team that can get offensive rebounds, steals, and get to the line.
Our odds right now aren't terrible, but they aren't good either. We're a stacked regular-season team right now as built. I want to keep Wright, but who cares if we go 13-deep if we can't close a game with five?
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That's the defense. All offenses can get disrupted. That's why defensive teams win championships. A 3 point shooting role player that can play elite defense would be ideal for this team at the PG.
Last edited by mavsfan1000; 12-18-2014 at 02:52 PM.
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12-18-2014, 02:53 PM
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#138
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
We have a long way to go until we can be an elite offensive team against the great defenses in the league. We have even further to go with our defense and rebounding. Those may not even be possible.
As good as we are offensively, offense can be disrupted. Who cares if we can score, if we can't also defend. In those closing moments of games, we're having troubles defending and getting important rebounds. Even the best offensive team can be disrupted and beaten by a team that can get offensive rebounds, steals, and get to the line.
Our odds right now aren't terrible, but they aren't good either. We're a stacked regular-season team right now as built. I want to keep Wright, but who cares if we go 13-deep if we can't close a game with five?
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Yeah, I agree. I like Wright, he is an excellent role player, and he had the potential to be something more, but I don't think it will ever happen, unless he is playing with a PG like Paul. He is also the best example . by far - of why minute adjustment is so important when it comes to advanced stats.
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12-18-2014, 02:55 PM
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#139
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
We have a long way to go until we can be an elite offensive team against the great defenses in the league.
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LOL. Are we watching the same team? Mavs have the best offense of ALL-TIME in terms of points per possession.
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12-18-2014, 02:56 PM
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#140
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Twenty4sevenn
Rondo is inefficient on defense just like Monta was inefficient on offense before coming here.
A lot changes when you have something to play for and are surrounded by capable teammates.
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Monta is still not really efficient, he's at league average during his Mavs career. He's awesome at attacking the rim though, too bad he isn't willing to flop. He should also never, ever take any threes, unless they are from the corner.
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12-18-2014, 02:57 PM
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#141
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
LOL. Are we watching the same team? Mavs have the best offense of ALL-TIME in terms of points per possession.
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No doubt. And they still are 0-for against Western Conference contenders.
Mavs are, at best, a 2nd round playoff team right now. There's currently nothing out there better then the Rondo move. Seems pretty low risk/high reward to me.
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12-18-2014, 02:58 PM
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#142
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
LOL. Are we watching the same team? Mavs have the best offense of ALL-TIME in terms of points per possession.
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Did we take over the Raptors again? Also, for an all-time great offense, we really crapped the bed against Western playoff teams this season, especially with our three point shooting If I remember correctly.
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12-18-2014, 03:00 PM
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#143
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
LOL. Are we watching the same team? Mavs have the best offense of ALL-TIME in terms of points per possession.
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Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.
Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.
We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams
Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets
I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.
Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 12-18-2014 at 03:06 PM.
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12-18-2014, 03:11 PM
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#144
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Also, no team has ever won a championship since 1995 without being at least top-12 in defense.
We're 24th in FG% defense
We're 30th in 3pt defense
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12-18-2014, 03:16 PM
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#145
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.
Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.
We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams
Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets
I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.
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Possibly OKC...what do you think Westbrook does to Nelson/Harris/Barea?
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12-18-2014, 03:17 PM
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#146
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Budapest, Hungary
Posts: 2,209
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Also, no team has ever won a championship since 1995 without being at least top-12 in defense.
We're 24th in FG% defense
We're 30th in 3pt defense
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Ouch. Especially the last one. I mean, at least run those guys off from the three-point line. That is effort. Well, maybe not. Somebody has to be 30th even if every single team hustles like there is no tomorrow.
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12-18-2014, 03:18 PM
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#147
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Are you saying that season stats which include games against some of the WORST teams the NBA has ever fielded mean more than the stats we put out against quality opponents.
Look at us vs. good defenses. We haven't played many, which is why our season stats look so rosy. If you look at just the good defensive teams, you'll see two things. 1) they ARE who we have to beat to get far in the playoffs, and 2) they can make us look bad offensively.
We're a great offensive team when there isn't much opposition. We're a FANTASTIC regular season team as long as we keep playing inferior Eastern teams. I'm not talking about the regular season opponents, though. I'm talking about the big dogs we have to be able to overcome to get out of the first round. Our playoff run WILL include three of the following five teams
Memphis, San Antonio, Clippers, Warriors, and Rockets
I could care less how we play against Philly. It is concerning when our defense is so bad and our offense is so weak against those five teams.
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We've played 7 championship contending teams. 6 of those games were on the road and we went 2-5. One of the losses was by 1 in San Antonio and one was by 3 in Houston which suggests that if we'd had an equal home/road split in those games, we'd be right around .500. I don't see why record against West contenders is more meaningful than record against contenders overall, especially with such a small sample. Toronto's just as good as Portland and Houston. And even if you want to quibble on including Chicago, they certainly have an elite defense, so if your hypothesis is that we can't get it done against top defenses, then that performance is still a very useful data point there. And again, playing Chicago on the road is just as tough as playing a top West contender at home. Obviously, if you parse the numbers down enough, you can make them say whatever you want, but I haven't seen any evidence so far that the Mavs offense can't get it done against top teams.
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12-18-2014, 03:20 PM
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#148
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 6,549
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Man, I have really mixed feelings about this one. I appreciate what Iggymc is bringing to this debate-- agree with him or not.
I have not seen enough of the Celtics of recent vintage to answer definitively whether injuries have taken a toll on Rondo or to speak to the level of his defensive effort. OF COURSE Rondo would give better effort here, on a contending team in the thick of a playoff race, surrounded by other accomplished vets.
But Erica I respectfully disagree that defense is 90% about effort. Its some combination of smarts, technique, conditioning, effort and athleticism. If Rondo's strongest trait defensively was always athleticism/anticipation and that has slipped some can he compensate in other areas? Is he willing to or able to recognize the need to?
Much has been written about Rondo's defense being overrated. I agree with the poster above(Thing or grandmasterc?)who said that his versatility to guard 1's or 2's is most important defensively, along with his rebounding ability. Also Rondo has played for championship contending teams and has shown an ability to turn it up a couple notches when it matters. He can be the absolute fiercest of competitors(when he wants to be). Therein lies the Rondo paradox and conundrum. He is both pain in the ass diva and warrior.
There are a few things that we have to trust to be true if this deal does go down:
- MBT has surveyed the trade landscape and cannot foresee a better player/fit coming available for what they have to offer
- they believe that making a trade for a player now w/ Bird Rights affords them the best chance to compete now AND for the rest of Dirk's career
- there will be a serviceable backup big available soon or one included in the deal
Last edited by mac222b; 12-18-2014 at 03:24 PM.
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12-18-2014, 03:25 PM
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#149
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Guru
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 40,410
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest
Rondo averages almost a triple double. This is a chance to get Jason Kidd in his prime except he lacks the size and 3 point shooting that Kidd had later in his career. Its a no brainer IMO. If all they want is Brandon Wright and a few other guys? This is the prime example of a low risk high reward type of deal. IMO, Brandon Wright doesn't have a future in Dallas anyway. I like the progress he's made but the guy has probably played himself into a big contract that I don't think Dallas will want to play especially to a backup. As long as Chandler and Dirk are healthy he'll never rack up much minutes.
This team lacks perimeter defense and shooting and while Rondo can't contribute much to the lack of shooting he can contribute to making it easier for others to score.
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Man this seems like a real slap in the face of jkiddo. Rondo is a young jason kidd? Man im not seeing it, but i have to admit a lack of knowledge on rondo.
__________________
"Yankees fans who say “flags fly forever’’ are right, you never lose that. It reinforces all the good things about being a fan. ... It’s black and white. You (the Mavs) won a title. That’s it and no one can say s--- about it.’’
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12-18-2014, 03:26 PM
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#150
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
We've played 7 championship contending teams. 6 of those games were on the road and we went 2-5. One of the losses was by 1 in San Antonio and one was by 3 in Houston which suggests that if we'd had an equal home/road split in those games, we'd be right around .500. I don't see why record against West contenders is more meaningful than record against contenders overall, especially with such a small sample. Toronto's just as good as Portland and Houston. And even if you want to quibble on including Chicago, they certainly have an elite defense, so if your hypothesis is that we can't get it done against top defenses, then that performance is still a very useful data point there. And again, playing Chicago on the road is just as tough as playing a top West contender at home. Obviously, if you parse the numbers down enough, you can make them say whatever you want, but I haven't seen any evidence so far that the Mavs offense can't get it done against top teams.
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Only a statistician would say that losing to a team by 1-3 points means that we'd win games against them in the future, particularly when you compare the clutch statistics in each of those games and also take into account that even with a miniscule sample size, we're roughly as good at home as we are on the road. Milwaukee only lost to us by 2 in Dallas and are better at home than on the road. Does that mean that Milwaukee has a good chance of beating us in Milwaukee?
Also, I don't know how you can immediately group games together like playing in Chicago being equal to playing Memphis at home-- a team that is only 4-5 (.444) when playing there.
Last edited by EricaLubarsky; 12-18-2014 at 03:30 PM.
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12-18-2014, 03:34 PM
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#151
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Inactive.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Posts: 42,473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dude1394
Man this seems like a real slap in the face of jkiddo. Rondo is a young jason kidd? Man im not seeing it, but i have to admit a lack of knowledge on rondo.
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If anything, Rondo is a poor-mans Alvin Robertson minus ever having a quadruple double (20pts, 11reb, 10ast, 10stl). He's small, frenetic, and passes better than he shoots. No leadership but skyhigh energy.
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12-18-2014, 03:44 PM
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#152
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
Posts: 36,143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Also, no team has ever won a championship since 1995 without being at least top-12 in defense.
We're 24th in FG% defense
We're 30th in 3pt defense
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And THAT is why we need Eddie Van Halen on guitar...
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
Last edited by Underdog; 12-18-2014 at 03:53 PM.
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12-18-2014, 03:51 PM
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#153
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
Posts: 36,143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
If anything, Rondo is a poor-mans Alvin Robertson minus ever having a quadruple double (20pts, 11reb, 10ast, 10stl). He's small, frenetic, and passes better than he shoots. No leadership but skyhigh energy.
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I certainly wouldn't call Rondo "small" - sure, he's only 6'1", but he has a ridiculous 6'9" wingspan... His length, coupled with his energy, is why he's such a good rebounder/defender.
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These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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12-18-2014, 03:58 PM
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#154
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Guru
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 10,016
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Rondo hasn't been a good defender for at least 3 years. He's still better than Nelson, but that's damning with faint praise
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12-18-2014, 04:13 PM
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#155
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky
Only a statistician would say that losing to a team by 1-3 points means that we'd win games against them in the future, particularly when you compare the clutch statistics in each of those games and also take into account that even with a miniscule sample size, we're roughly as good at home as we are on the road. Milwaukee only lost to us by 2 in Dallas and are better at home than on the road. Does that mean that Milwaukee has a good chance of beating us in Milwaukee?
Also, I don't know how you can immediately group games together like playing in Chicago being equal to playing Memphis at home-- a team that is only 4-5 (.444) when playing there.
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So how much do you really believe this stuff about our homecourt being worse than other teams or the Mavs specifically being bad against good defenses? Like do you really think we're less than 50% to beat the Spurs Saturday or are you just posturing for the sake of argument? If I could make the bet now with someone completely reliable, I'd be ecstatic to take the Mavericks even money to win that game for a large amount of money.
Last edited by iggymcfly; 12-18-2014 at 04:13 PM.
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12-18-2014, 04:15 PM
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#156
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Enemy territory (SA)
Posts: 3,287
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I'd like to counter the notion that Rondo isn't that good of a defender/ rebounder.
Ummm, yes he is. Someone pointed out players average a PER of 18.0 against him vs. the league-wide average of 15.0. First off, everyone and their mothers know that PER is skewed in favor of those who contribute in limited minutes (cough cough Wright cough). A more accurate measure is DPRM which takes into account points allowed per 100 possessions. Rondo is 4th in the league. http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rp...RPM/position/1
Rondo also leads the Celtics in defensive +/-, not taking into account Gerald Wallace who plays 8 mpg. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2015.html
Rondo is also 1st among PG's in defensive rebound % & 6th in offensive rebound %. To top it off he also leads the league is assist ratio (% of possessions that result in an assists), and assists.
On offense, Rondo's struggles seem to be overstated. He isn't shooting well but he's running a relatively efficient offense considering their roster. The Celtics are 6th in PPG, tied for 11th/12th in FG% at .461 (the immediate 3 squads ahead of them are at .462). They struggle making and defending 3s and turning the ball over.
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12-18-2014, 04:16 PM
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#157
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Enemy territory (SA)
Posts: 3,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
So how much do you really believe this stuff about our homecourt being worse than other teams or the Mavs specifically being bad against good defenses? Like do you really think we're less than 50% to beat the Spurs Saturday or are you just posturing for the sake of argument? If I could make the bet now with someone completely reliable, I'd be ecstatic to take the Mavericks even money to win that game for a large amount of money.
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Good thing you don't live in Vegas.
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12-18-2014, 04:17 PM
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#158
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Enemy territory (SA)
Posts: 3,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Five-ofan
Rondo hasn't been a good defender for at least 3 years.
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Sorry but you're just plain wrong.
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Last edited by tap2390; 12-18-2014 at 04:17 PM.
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12-18-2014, 04:20 PM
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#159
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Hudson, WI
Posts: 3,938
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
Here are Haralabos Voulgaris's comments on Twitter today:
"No way in hell the Mavs should trade for Rondo if they have to include B. Wright."
"Who exactly is going to be their first big off the bench? Curious. And Rondo is not a good defensive PG."
(On idea of this being a move to set Mavs up for next year): "ya I guess, there chances of doing anything this year would drop pretty big tho. This year is wide open."
"I don't know where the rumor got started that Rondo was a great defensive PG."
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I love haralabob as much as anyone, but it seems to me like you're taking his opinion (which I will admit is deeply supported by the facts he presents) as gospel, when it is in fact one opinion, and one that he is mostly using to support his sports betting. I think the truth about Rondo, regarding whether he is a poor/lazy/disinterested defender or an elite game-changer on that end, lies somewhere in the middle.
I absolutely see and understand the concerns about his consistency and intensity on that end, especially since he really cut his teeth on those great Celtics teams of 5-7 years ago as a defender. Honestly, some nights he looks like he isn't engaged at all on either end of the ball, and his natural talents lead him to those effortless-but-still-underwhelming near-triple double stat lines.
Other nights, you can tell from the opening tip that he has an extra hop in his step and some fire in his belly. Those nights, he gets 11 rebounds and 19 assists, regardless of who he is playing with or against. My assumption is that he's a bit of a front-runner as a player. When he's on bad teams, he has a hard time getting up for all (or even some) of the 82 games on the schedule; when he's on good teams, his low-energy nights still look pretty damn good, and his good games are unique, dynamic and jaw-dropping.
My guess is the MBT, in trading for Rondo, sees Rondo the same way that I do. If he's surrounded by a contending team, he's going to be one of the 3-4 best PGs in the league. If he's not, you are going to see his effort fluctuate much more often. And honestly, with how small of a window that we seem to have with Dirk, I'm okay taking that risk, because this organization is clearly committed to winning, and I think most NBA players see that.
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12-18-2014, 04:38 PM
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#160
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spreedom
I love haralabob as much as anyone, but it seems to me like you're taking his opinion (which I will admit is deeply supported by the facts he presents) as gospel, when it is in fact one opinion, and one that he is mostly using to support his sports betting. I think the truth about Rondo, regarding whether he is a poor/lazy/disinterested defender or an elite game-changer on that end, lies somewhere in the middle.
I absolutely see and understand the concerns about his consistency and intensity on that end, especially since he really cut his teeth on those great Celtics teams of 5-7 years ago as a defender. Honestly, some nights he looks like he isn't engaged at all on either end of the ball, and his natural talents lead him to those effortless-but-still-underwhelming near-triple double stat lines.
Other nights, you can tell from the opening tip that he has an extra hop in his step and some fire in his belly. Those nights, he gets 11 rebounds and 19 assists, regardless of who he is playing with or against. My assumption is that he's a bit of a front-runner as a player. When he's on bad teams, he has a hard time getting up for all (or even some) of the 82 games on the schedule; when he's on good teams, his low-energy nights still look pretty damn good, and his good games are unique, dynamic and jaw-dropping.
My guess is the MBT, in trading for Rondo, sees Rondo the same way that I do. If he's surrounded by a contending team, he's going to be one of the 3-4 best PGs in the league. If he's not, you are going to see his effort fluctuate much more often. And honestly, with how small of a window that we seem to have with Dirk, I'm okay taking that risk, because this organization is clearly committed to winning, and I think most NBA players see that.
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It's not just Haralabob. The other really damning thing for me is the Celtics on/off numbers the last 3 years. They've been better when he's on the bench 3 years in a row by an average of 3.5 points including one year when most of the nucleus was still around and they were still a playoff contender, and one year where he missed a lot of games so you can separate starter/bench performance from Rondo/non Rondo performance. That really says a lot to me, that he's either a poor defender, a cancer to floor spacing, or both. And I really hate the fit of taking an extremely inefficient player offensively who's also one of the most ball-dominant players in the entire league, and throwing him into a team where the offense was previously running at all-time levels.
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