Two part conference finals question

[CadBane]

Man, this is a tough one.

Memphis front court is tough. Gasol gives Tyson issues, big time. Tyson actually would be a better defender on Z-Bo...but you don't really want Dirk banging with Gasol. Dirk's defense was flat out fantastic on Pau, but if he's on Z-Bo I'm more worried about foul trouble. Tony Allen and OJ Mayo are the types of guys that I think give JET a lot of trouble.

But on the other hand, the Durant/Westbrook combo is pretty prolific.

X Factor...Dirk absolutely torches OKC and Marion guards KD well...I gotta say OKC.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by CadBane

X Factor...Dirk absolutely torches OKC and Marion guards KD well...I gotta say OKC.

The thing is, we haven't played OKC since their trade. And Ibaka basically never played PF before their trade, so he never really guarded Dirk. I feel like he's someone that could give Dirk a little more trouble than he's used to.

This might drive me to buying a Synergy Sports membership this week so I can see how many times Dirk as worked against Ibaka.

[jthig32]

Also, OKC has an incredible crowd. I feel like that should be taken into account somewhat.

[CadBane]

Originally Posted by jthig32

The thing is, we haven't played OKC since their trade. And Ibaka basically never played PF before their trade, so he never really guarded Dirk. I feel like he's someone that could give Dirk a little more trouble than he's used to.

This might drive me to buying a Synergy Sports membership this week so I can see how many times Dirk as worked against Ibaka.

I agree about the crowd. Disagree about Ibaka. We might need to step in with Synergy Sports...but I recall Ibaka guarding Dirk a number of times last year (and this year) with little success. I think Dirk is too crafty for Serge...and while hella athletic, Serge is only like 6"9 so Dirk still has a nice height advantage. It's like Josh Smith...he *should* guard Dirk well, but he really doesn't.

[Mav Addict]

Westbrook may seem inefficient and unable to run an offense against the Grizz, but once he matches up with Jkidd he will dominate and become unguardable...don't sleep on Westbrook.. b/c speedy ball hog PG's are the Mavs kryptonite

Another thing...I think saying Marion can guard Durant is an exaggeration, maybe slow him down for a game or two, but for 7 games series? I dunno bout that fellas

I can't believe Zach freaking Randolph has garnered this much respect

[Mavsfan4ever]

We matched up well with both teams during the season. It will not be easy, but I feel we could take either team in six closely contested games.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by Mav Addict

Westbrook may seem inefficient and unable to run an offense against the Grizz, but once he matches up with Jkidd he will dominate and become unguardable...don't sleep on Westbrook.. b/c speedy ball hog PG's are the Mavs kryptonite

Another thing...I think saying Marion can guard Durant is an exaggeration, maybe slow him down for a game or two, but for 7 games series? I dunno bout that fellas

I can't believe Zach freaking Randolph has garnered this much respect

I totally agree (except for the part about Z-bo. The dude is flat-out beasting right now.)

Westbrook is exactly the kind of player the Mavs do not want to see in these playoffs. There's just nobody on the Mavs roster that can guard those lightning-quick PG's. While I don't like the idea of Dirk having to guard Gasol or Z-bo, if the Mavs' complete and utter domination of the Lakers have proved anything, it's that the Mavs' frontline can defend the paint.

I'm not saying I like either matchup, because I don't, but I'd be more comfortable with the Mavs taking their chances against Z-bo and Gasol than against Westbrook and Durant.

That being said, the Grizz' stout perimeter defense does worry me because the Mavs' insanely hot 3-pt shooting is what carried them to victory over the Lakers. I could see the Mavs lighting up OKC in a similar way from downtown. Memphis could be considerably tougher.

This is a really, really tough call. But in a toss-up, I have to say I prefer the Grizz.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally Posted by CadBane

I agree about the crowd. Disagree about Ibaka. We might need to step in with Synergy Sports...but I recall Ibaka guarding Dirk a number of times last year (and this year) with little success. I think Dirk is too crafty for Serge...and while hella athletic, Serge is only like 6"9 so Dirk still has a nice height advantage. It's like Josh Smith...he *should* guard Dirk well, but he really doesn't.

After 12-13 years of Dirk being Dirk, I think we should all realize that there's no player in the NBA who can effectively guard Dirk one-on-one. The only way to effectively guard Dirk is to double him. Throughout Dirk's entire career, the ONLY player I've ever seen consistently guard him well for any noticeable stretch was... Shawn Marion.

[mavs777]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

I totally agree (except for the part about Z-bo. The dude is flat-out beasting right now.)

Westbrook is exactly the kind of player the Mavs do not want to see in these playoffs. There's just nobody on the Mavs roster that can guard those lightning-quick PG's. While I don't like the idea of Dirk having to guard Gasol or Z-bo, if the Mavs' complete and utter domination of the Lakers have proved anything, it's that the Mavs' frontline can defend the paint.

I'm not saying I like either matchup, because I don't, but I'd be more comfortable with the Mavs taking their chances against Z-bo and Gasol than against Westbrook and Durant.

That being said, the Grizz' stout perimeter defense does worry me because the Mavs' insanely hot 3-pt shooting is what carried them to victory over the Lakers. I could see the Mavs lighting up OKC in a similar way from downtown. Memphis could be considerably tougher.

This is a really, really tough call. But in a toss-up, I have to say I prefer the Grizz.

Memphis was only 24th in league in defending the 3 in regular season. Allen and Battier are great ISO defenders however

[twelli]

1. Rest is great not just because we can recuperate, but also because we have all the time in the world to watch and study these teams and come up with all kinds of strategies. Also we have time to make plans for bringing back Roddy and Caron if that is possible.

2. I think both teams are not ready to go all the way trough to the finals. They'll be amazed at being in the WCF and will have less urgency because of their youth. For our guys this is it. Maybe, probably the last realistic shot for most of them to win it all. I feel Memphis causes us more trouble because of their ugly style of play, notably Randolph, OKC appears to be much "softer" whatever that means. I'd take my chances with a jump-shooting OKC team. Durant will come down to earth. But I am afraid it will happen againt Memphis not against us. We'll play Memphis.

[Mavsfan4ever]

Watching Mike & Mike and the two Mikes think no matter who wins Memphis/OKC the Mavs will be favored in the WCF.

[markus1234]

BTW we should not forget that OKC vs. MEM went to OT. Hopefully they will continue to play heavy minutes.

What concerns me more are the finals. A loss in the finalls will be absolutely devastating for this team. MIA, CHI, BOS, ATL have nothing to lose. From now undtil the finals the pressure is on our team. Do or die. Hopefully they will do...

[mavsman]

Actually, before the first round, there have been quite a lot of "experts" saying that Dirk vs LMA would be a wash. We saw how that went. Before the 2nd, some of those same "experts" were wondering whether Pau or Dirk was the best European ever. Even they know now. So I'd think it's only logical to want to play Z-Bo and see how that one will turn out.

[BGMaverick9]

Originally Posted by markus1234

BTW we should not forget that OKC vs. MEM went to OT. Hopefully they will continue to play heavy minutes.

What concerns me more are the finals. A loss in the finalls will be absolutely devastating for this team. MIA, CHI, BOS, ATL have nothing to lose. From now undtil the finals the pressure is on our team. Do or die. Hopefully they will do...

They've been dealing with pressure since the minute the playoffs started. If not, how about the collapse in Portland? OK, what about after winning Game 2 in LA?

The pressure has been there all of the way and they don't care. The team has said if you don't want pressure, then don't be in the playoffs. You have to embrace the pressure.

[purplefrog]

My superstition is to never wish/hope for any opponent. It seems that far too often the cliche "be careful what you wish for, you just might get it" comes into play. The Mavs can beat anyone when they are playing at the top of their game so their opponent doesn't really matter.

[LonghornDub]

I was leaning OKC initially, but now I think I'm leaning Memphis. Five reasons:

1) Memphis's advantage--the reason they beat the Spurs--is their front-court size. The Spurs have no size in the front court, except Duncan, who is skinny and old. This is the same as the Lakers' advantage over most teams. Mavs proved this round that they have enough size to negate or at least mitigate that advantage, although Cad is obviously right that Chandler is too wirey to dominate Z-Bo or Gasol on defense.

2) OKC has the best player of either team. Arguably, they have the best two players of either team, although the way Westbrook is playing right now, that's certainly not true at the moment. I do think Z-Bo will come back down to earth, though. We saw signs of it in Game 2 against OKC. He's definitely improved a ton, but I can't imagine the guy will continue to hit every crazy fadeway in crunch time he shoots.

3) Like thig said, OKC has the better home crowd. Mavs won there twice this year, so they're not scared of it, but they get crazy in the playoffs.

4) At this point, if OKC wins, it means they will have closed out the series winning 3/4 with at least one win on the road. That's a confidence builder, which will presumably help get Westbrook and KD out of their current disconnect.

5) We were 1-3 against Memphis, but one was pretty much without Dirk, one was a blown late lead where the Mavs committed like 90 turnovers late the second game of the year, and one was a monumental fold-job after building a huge lead. Not particularly scary.

But one reason to prefer OKC: they are more similar to the Heat and Bulls, with a very talented penetrating guard (and in the Heat's case, also an elite forward). Might be good practice. Memphis would take an entirely different gameplan than what we'd use in the Finals.

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I was leaning OKC initially, but now I think I'm leaning Memphis. Five reasons:

1) Memphis's advantage--the reason they beat the Spurs--is their front-court size. The Spurs have no size in the front court, except Duncan, who is skinny and old. This is the same as the Lakers' advantage over most teams. Mavs proved this round that they have enough size to negate or at least mitigate that advantage, although Cad is obviously right that Chandler is too wirey to dominate Z-Bo or Gasol on defense.

2) OKC has the best player of either team. Arguably, they have the best two players of either team, although the way Westbrook is playing right now, that's certainly not true at the moment. I do think Z-Bo will come back down to earth, though. We saw signs of it in Game 2 against OKC. He's definitely improved a ton, but I can't imagine the guy will continue to hit every crazy fadeway in crunch time he shoots.

3) Like thig said, OKC has the better home crowd. Mavs won there twice this year, so they're not scared of it, but they get crazy in the playoffs.

4) At this point, if OKC wins, it means they will have closed out the series winning 3/4 with at least one win on the road. That's a confidence builder, which will presumably help get Westbrook and KD out of their current disconnect.

5) We were 1-3 against Memphis, but one was pretty much without Dirk, one was a blown late lead where the Mavs committed like 90 turnovers late the second game of the year, and one was a monumental fold-job after building a huge lead. Not particularly scary.

But one reason to prefer OKC: they are more similar to the Heat and Bulls, with a very talented penetrating guard (and in the Heat's case, also an elite forward). Might be good practice. Memphis would take an entirely different gameplan than what we'd use in the Finals.

I would almost view your reason to prefer OKC as a 6th reason to prefer Memphis. Yeah, we would have to figure out how to play against a Miami/Chicago without a tune up (if we get there and if one of those two get there) but Miami/Chicago in that example would have tape of anywhere from 4-7 games of how to avoid Dallas from stopping them that same way.

Give me Memphis. We can beat either, and either can beat us if we don't come committed and ready to go. That said, you avoid true superstars where possible and Zach isn't that. He is playing like one now, but he is also a head case that can explode at any point. Memphis is a tough gritty team and the series would be more like the one with Portland than the one with LA; however, I always pick the lesser of two evils and I believe that is Memphis.

[j0Shi]

I think with a week or so until the Conf Finals will be underway, I'd like to start discussing the starting lineup. It has been the only weakness in this run so far. They are -14.06 in EffDiff in the Playoffs and while they managed to held their own against the big but ineffective backcourt of the Blazers, they got outscored 53-75 against the Lakers. From our Top10 lineups in terms of possessions played this is our worst. By far.

Against the more dynamic and athletics backcourts of both Memphis and the Thunder Stevenson might not be the best fit any longer.

For the season:
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Stevenson, Kidd: 277.20 Poss; 97.75 OffEff; 97.39 DefEff; +0.36 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Beaubois, Kidd: 249.10 Poss; 99.54 OffEff; 90.71 DefEff; +8.83 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, ,Chandler, Terry, Kidd: 481.50 Poss; 126.48 OffEff; 100.31 DefEff; +26.17 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Brewer, Kidd: 7.70 Poss; 182.80 OffEff; 78.34 DefEff; +104.46 EffDiff

Terry won't happen and Brewer's sample size is really small. But anyway: The combination with Stevenson is flat out the worst.

Don't want the Mavs to pay the price for not changing their starting lineup like Miami did in Game 3 on Saturday.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Male29Dan

I would almost view your reason to prefer OKC as a 6th reason to prefer Memphis. Yeah, we would have to figure out how to play against a Miami/Chicago without a tune up (if we get there and if one of those two get there) but Miami/Chicago in that example would have tape of anywhere from 4-7 games of how to avoid Dallas from stopping them that same way.

Give me Memphis. We can beat either, and either can beat us if we don't come committed and ready to go. That said, you avoid true superstars where possible and Zach isn't that. He is playing like one now, but he is also a head case that can explode at any point. Memphis is a tough gritty team and the series would be more like the one with Portland than the one with LA; however, I always pick the lesser of two evils and I believe that is Memphis.

Hmm. Not only is Zach playing like a superstar but he has reacted well to defenders doing anything they possibly can physically to stop him. He has been a different player imo this season and especially in the playoffs. His demeanor and calm attitude is similar to watching Dirk this year. He knows guys are going to try and get physical with him and try to push him out of his comfort zone but no one is stopping him and he all the sudden looks like he has been doing it for years. He has carried the team thru every tough stretch they have faced in the post season.

In general, Regardless of who we play next it's going to be much tougher because the opposing team is going to work much harder than the Lakers in almost every aspect of the game. The point guards are going to be much faster and more effective too which is a worry for us. There are bigger hurdles going forward to the finals. In theory we should probably beat either team because we are a veteran team that moves the ball as good or better than any team I have ever seen in NBA history. We have played so well and beaten two damn good basketball teams thus far that we should have "in theory" had more problems with. We played awesome basketball and it was a stellar and unexpected sweep but that wasn't the same Laker team that won it two years straight. Other than being really proud, Idk what to think right now of the next series.

[ddh33]

The Thunder are my second favorite team, so I am just going to keep it separate and pull for them for now.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Mav Addict

Westbrook may seem inefficient and unable to run an offense against the Grizz, but once he matches up with Jkidd he will dominate and become unguardable...don't sleep on Westbrook.. b/c speedy ball hog PG's are the Mavs kryptonite

Another thing...I think saying Marion can guard Durant is an exaggeration, maybe slow him down for a game or two, but for 7 games series? I dunno bout that fellas

I can't believe Zach freaking Randolph has garnered this much respect

No doubt, Marion won't stop Durant to under 10 a game in a series. The thing you want Marion, Brewer or whoever else to do, is to make Durant work for everything he gets, pull a jersey here, an elbow there, a bump here, get him off his sweet spot. Make Durant work, make him work on both ends of the court, given the Mavs offense to swing the ball back and forth that will help.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

I think with a week or so until the Conf Finals will be underway, I'd like to start discussing the starting lineup. It has been the only weakness in this run so far. They are -14.06 in EffDiff in the Playoffs and while they managed to held their own against the big but ineffective backcourt of the Blazers, they got outscored 53-75 against the Lakers. From our Top10 lineups in terms of possessions played this is our worst. By far.

Against the more dynamic and athletics backcourts of both Memphis and the Thunder Stevenson might not be the best fit any longer.

For the season:
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Stevenson, Kidd: 277.20 Poss; 97.75 OffEff; 97.39 DefEff; +0.36 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Beaubois, Kidd: 249.10 Poss; 99.54 OffEff; 90.71 DefEff; +8.83 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, ,Chandler, Terry, Kidd: 481.50 Poss; 126.48 OffEff; 100.31 DefEff; +26.17 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Brewer, Kidd: 7.70 Poss; 182.80 OffEff; 78.34 DefEff; +104.46 EffDiff

Terry won't happen and Brewer's sample size is really small. But anyway: The combination with Stevenson is flat out the worst.

Don't want the Mavs to pay the price for not changing their starting lineup like Miami did in Game 3 on Saturday.

I think this is wasted effort at this point. There's just no way that this team changes their starting lineup after winning six straight. You can look at all the statistical evidence you want, but you have to consider the locker room and the momentum they must feel right now.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by Nowitzness81

1. Will the rest hurt the Mavs?

This team has been playing at a high level and with a lot of emotion and intensity constantly for two weeks now. With all this time off, against a young OKC/Grizz team that is sure to enter the conference finals with a lot of momentum, will it put the Mavs at a disadvantage?

2. Who would you rather face? I'll take the Grizz.

No. For a veteran team, like the Mavs, they'll be fine. It never has lost a series for any team, the rest is great. I remember the 03 Nets won 10 straight playoff games before losing Game 1 in the finals. If anythiing you'll see rust maybe the first quarter and that's about it.

Matchup wise, I could care less, JJ can get by either PG's. We have the best player on either team. Both top defenders cannot stop Dirk. From Perkins-Ibaka-Gasol. Both fan bases are rabid due to the current winning, so that washes out. Wing wise, Memphis have a tougher group of defenders in Allen/Battier/Young, then do OK City...Sefolosha. Harden is their answer to Terry. I'm just hoping the east can beat the hell out of each other, Rondo's down....next up, the Heat.

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

2) OKC has the best player of either team.

In comparison to Memphis, or us?

[CadBane]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

In comparison to Memphis, or us?

He meant Memphis, obviously.

[mavsman]

Did Durant just call Z-Bo "the best pf in the league right now"? After he called Dirk "unguardable"? The guy covers all his bases.

[Kidd Karma]

Originally Posted by mavsman

Did Durant just call Z-Bo "the best pf in the league right now"? After he called Dirk "unguardable"? The guy covers all his bases.

Yea well find that quote and send it to Dirk if we get OKC, Z-bo the best pf?

[dalger]

Originally Posted by mavsman

Did Durant just call Z-Bo "the best pf in the league right now"? After he called Dirk "unguardable"? The guy covers all his bases.

He's just too nice of a guy. I have a feeling I already know which player he would call the best PF in the league if we were to meet OKC in the WCF...

Oddly enough, I'm not even mad when a guy like Durant says something like that. Or is he less of a nice guy than I think and instead a cold-blooded opportunist secretly trying to lull his competition?

[CadBane]

Durant comes off as overly faux humble to me. I'm not saying he's not a nice dude...but some of his stuff is clearly an act, like at one point he said something like he doesn't even consider himself a Top 15 player.

[TripleDipping]

Not sure why everyone here thinks OKC has a better crowd compared to Memphis. It is true during the regular season, but the Fedex Forum has been nuts so far in the playoffs.

[dalger]

Originally Posted by CadBane

Durant comes off as overly faux humble to me. I'm not saying he's not a nice dude...but some of his stuff is clearly an act, like at one point he said something like he doesn't even consider himself a Top 15 player.

It's possible, although I'd still give him the benefit of the doubt until he blatantly gets to the point where he's an obvious yea-sayer and overly charming.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

In comparison to Memphis, or us?

To Memphis. If you buy into the theory that you always want the best player on the court to be your guy, then we should pull for Memphis. And the Celtics.

Originally Posted by CadBane

Durant comes off as overly faux humble to me. I'm not saying he's not a nice dude...but some of his stuff is clearly an act, like at one point he said something like he doesn't even consider himself a Top 15 player.

Yeah, he's definitely a nice dude, but he's lying through his teeth when he says that. May be a personal motivation tool, who knows. But obviously he knows he's well into the top 15.

[Stylistic]

I also do not believe that memphis and okc crowd is that much louder and wild than rose garden, if at all.

[Underdog]

Wow, I just realized that out of Dallas, OKC and Memphis, only Dallas has ever been to the WCF or beyond... Hell, even most of the key players on OKC and Memphis have never been this far along.

I think our experience will be useful in the next round...



EDIT: still kinda shocked that we won't be going through the Spurs!

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by jthig32

I think this is wasted effort at this point. There's just no way that this team changes their starting lineup after winning six straight. You can look at all the statistical evidence you want, but you have to consider the locker room and the momentum they must feel right now.

Well said...RC's going to trot out stevenson and then get a quick hook with whomever he likes to fix/create a matchup.

[dude1394]

F'em both...bring 'em on, I don't give a crap who.

That being said, those boys down in memphis ARE a load...either one is going to be tough.

[Kirobaito]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Hell, even the players on OKC and Memphis have never been this far along.

Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, and Leon Powe won a ring with Boston in '08, and Nazr Mohammed won a ring with San Antonio in '05.

Only Perkins and Allen really play much of a role, but still.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Kirobaito

Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, and Leon Powe won a ring with Boston in '08, and Nazr Mohammed won a ring with San Antonio in '05.

Only Perkins and Allen really play much of a role, but still.

Edited that line to "most of the key players" right before you posted...

[SeriousSummer]

Originally Posted by j0Shi

I think with a week or so until the Conf Finals will be underway, I'd like to start discussing the starting lineup. It has been the only weakness in this run so far. They are -14.06 in EffDiff in the Playoffs and while they managed to held their own against the big but ineffective backcourt of the Blazers, they got outscored 53-75 against the Lakers. From our Top10 lineups in terms of possessions played this is our worst. By far.

Against the more dynamic and athletics backcourts of both Memphis and the Thunder Stevenson might not be the best fit any longer.

For the season:
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Stevenson, Kidd: 277.20 Poss; 97.75 OffEff; 97.39 DefEff; +0.36 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Beaubois, Kidd: 249.10 Poss; 99.54 OffEff; 90.71 DefEff; +8.83 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, ,Chandler, Terry, Kidd: 481.50 Poss; 126.48 OffEff; 100.31 DefEff; +26.17 EffDiff
Marion, Nowitzki, Chandler, Brewer, Kidd: 7.70 Poss; 182.80 OffEff; 78.34 DefEff; +104.46 EffDiff

Terry won't happen and Brewer's sample size is really small. But anyway: The combination with Stevenson is flat out the worst.

Don't want the Mavs to pay the price for not changing their starting lineup like Miami did in Game 3 on Saturday.

After yesterday, the best line up the Mavs have (statistically speaking) has to be Barea-Terry-Peja-Dirk-Haywood.

That group didn't even make 82games top twenty line ups for the Mavs--although surprisingly, the same line up with Mahinni replacing Haywood actually had the best Win% of any of the 20 most frequent line ups the Mavs played.

There are 240 minutes of playing time to fill up. I think starting with a defensive-oriented line up is fine. Later on, Carlisle can put in the better offensive players--Peja, Barea and JET.

There may even be times where some of the other guys play important roles.

[deamon]

1. No. Kidd need a rest, and this break won't destroy our momentum.
2. MEM. Marion couldn't guard Roy, Odom, so he will guard Durant? I want Grizz, Dirk has to show he's better PF than Yetiface.