Dallas vs Washington Gameday - Page 8 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

Bayliss · 02-23-2003, 03:35 PM

Just because he starts doesn't mean he has to score. We have enough offense w/o him to try. Much the same way I don't expect Najera and Bradley to score.

mavs_afroman · 02-23-2003, 03:41 PM

It wasn't Dirk's decision to shoot that was bad, it was the shot he took. I really wanted him to drive the ball and hopefully get to the line or score the bucket. That way even if he had missed there would have been less time on the clock seeing that there were just 2.6 secs left even after the three.

MFFL · 02-23-2003, 04:15 PM

<< Just because he starts doesn't mean he has to score. We have enough offense w/o him to try. Much the same way I don't expect Najera and Bradley to score. >>

Everyone has to score. Period. If you give Mantis 25 minutes, Najera 25 minutes, and Bell 25 minutes and they only contribute 10-15 points between them, then we will probably lose.

The big 3 are averaging 110 mintues per game and scoring 61 points. We need to average over 100 points a game to win on a consistent basis. So we only have 130 minutes left and you want to devote 75 minutes of those to non-scorers. We would only have 55 minutes left of PT. If Mantis/Najera/Bell put a goose-egg on the board (not unlikely), where are we going to get the extra scoring from?

Bayliss · 02-23-2003, 04:34 PM

<< Everyone has to score. Period. If you give Mantis 25 minutes, Najera 25 minutes, and Bell 25 minutes and they only contribute 10-15 points between them, then we will probably lose.

The big 3 are averaging 110 mintues per game and scoring 61 points. We need to average over 100 points a game to win on a consistent basis. So we only have 130 minutes left and you want to devote 75 minutes of those to non-scorers. We would only have 55 minutes left of PT. If Mantis/Najera/Bell put a goose-egg on the board (not unlikely), where are we going to get the extra scoring from? >>

Well maybe I should clarify what I mean by "score." What I mean by score is trying to create something for themselves. When Najera is on the floor, he will get easy baskets by hustling on offensive rebounds, dive cuts, etc. But I don't expect him to get the ball and either be isolated or a "play" run for him.

Bell is that same way. He will get some points from putbacks, open jumpers from kickouts, and fast breaks. But I don't ecpect him to have plays run to him. The same for Bradley.

ocelot_ark · 02-23-2003, 04:56 PM

You people amaze me. Dirk should pass up one of his best shots just to get take up an extra 2 seconds?

Wide-open good shot minus 2 seconds dribbling = contested shot that WON'T have a foul called no matter what. Dirk made a good decision. If he would have passed that shot up at any other time in the game we'd be mad...it should be the same at the end.

MFFL · 02-23-2003, 05:06 PM

<< You people amaze me. Dirk should pass up one of his best shots just to get take up an extra 2 seconds?

Wide-open good shot minus 2 seconds dribbling = contested shot that WON'T have a foul called no matter what. Dirk made a good decision. If he would have passed that shot up at any other time in the game we'd be mad...it should be the same at the end. >>

If Jordan had hit that last shot then we would have lost in the SAME EXACT WAY as the Minnesota game. If Finley was the goat in that situation then why isn't Dirk held to the same standards?

mavs_afroman · 02-23-2003, 07:07 PM

<<

<< You people amaze me. Dirk should pass up one of his best shots just to get take up an extra 2 seconds?

Wide-open good shot minus 2 seconds dribbling = contested shot that WON'T have a foul called no matter what. Dirk made a good decision. If he would have passed that shot up at any other time in the game we'd be mad...it should be the same at the end. >>

If Jordan had hit that last shot then we would have lost in the SAME EXACT WAY as the Minnesota game. If Finley was the goat in that situation then why isn't Dirk held to the same standards? >>

It was not the same situation. Finley took a 28ft. 3 with 14 seconds left on the clock. Plenty of time to get a better shot. Dirk took his with about 4. He could've driven but if he had waited much longer chances are we wouldn't have had a chance to shoot at all, and it was a wide open shot from the 3pt. line not 5 feet behind it. I don't think anyone would have been mad at Fin for taking that shot. I wouldn't have been at least.

superheadcat · 02-23-2003, 07:13 PM

<< If Jordan had hit that last shot then we would have lost in the SAME EXACT WAY as the Minnesota game. If Finley was the goat in that situation then why isn't Dirk held to the same standards? >>

good question.

actually, if it is anybody except dirk missing that shot and mj made the winning shot, that poor guy will be killed on this board, and this thread will be flooded by "firing nellie" posts accusing him not giving the ball to dirk.

personally, i have not problem about dirk shooting (and missing) that shot, i guess that is a good position. i am just tired every time someone other than dirk misses, some posts here seem like the end of the season.

mavs_afroman · 02-23-2003, 07:43 PM

<<

<< If Jordan had hit that last shot then we would have lost in the SAME EXACT WAY as the Minnesota game. If Finley was the goat in that situation then why isn't Dirk held to the same standards? >>

good question.

actually, if it is anybody except dirk missing that shot and mj made the winning shot, that poor guy will be killed on this board, and this thread will be flooded by "firing nellie" posts accusing him not giving the ball to dirk.

personally, i have not problem about dirk shooting (and missing) that shot, i guess that is a good position. i am just tired every time someone other than dirk misses, some posts here seem like the end of the season. >>

Actually, I've seen very few complain over Dirk not taking enough shots or others taking too many. What many have expressed, myself included, is that the offense should be run through Dirk more. That particular play originated with Nash and the ball ended up in Dirk's hands after the rebound. Most of those of whom I assume you're speaking of would like that play to be run through Dirk and originate with Dirk. In fact, most of the time he would end up not being the one to take the shot. But instead of someone trying to get a shot off the dribble or shooting in traffic, I would prefer someone taking a wide open shot or getting an open lane to the goal after the double down. Robert Horry has hit many clutch shots for the Lakers and Rockets, so nobody minds him taking last second shots but Phil and Rudy would always run the play through Hakeem and Shaq and Horry usually got it off the kick out, never trying to create his own shot.

MavsFanFinley · 02-23-2003, 09:01 PM

<< If Jordan had hit that last shot then we would have lost in the SAME EXACT WAY as the Minnesota game. If Finley was the goat in that situation then why isn't Dirk held to the same standards? >>

No one will answer this honestly MFFL.

And Dirk took that shot with just over 6 seconds left. Not 4 seconds as some are trying to point out. I have the game on tape and have watched it a couple times. The announcer even says Dirk for three with 6 seconds left. If he would have made it, there would have been even more time left on the clock. But, he missed and the Wizards were left with 2.6 seconds left to win the game. Fortunately for us, Jordan missed.

Finley (Minnesota game) took his open shot (in fact, him and Dirk's shot were almost identical. 3-pointer on the left side) with just over 8 seconds left. I went back to the gamethread to verify. Unfortunately for us, Wally hit his game winner.

Yet, Dirk is excused for it, whereas Finley is not.

Same thing even happened in the Milwaukee game. Nash took that running 3-pointer like 3 feet behind the line with 20 seconds left. When I pointed out how stupid that was, I was told that's Nash's shot. Um, ok.

Finley gets the offensive rebound and shoots it with like 10 seconds left. Was fouled, but no call. Game over.

Nash took some heat for that last shot in the Milwaukee game, but nothing like Fin had in the Minnesota game.

LRB · 02-23-2003, 09:57 PM

I'll answer that one MFF. If MJ hits the final shot, then Dirk's early shot costs us the game almost exactly as Fin's did in Minnesota. I was thinking that while mentally screaming for Dirk to hold the ball for the last shot. Both players made mental errors. Unfortunately in Fin's case we lost the game. We got a little more lucky today.

Member · 02-23-2003, 10:02 PM

Why have we had so many problems lately with knowing when and when not to take the final shot of the game? It seems like we haven't executed those well at all, allowing them (it seems like always) to have the final shot of the game instead of us. We have been giving the other teams too many opportunities in crunch time.

MavsFanFinley · 02-23-2003, 10:55 PM

<< Why have we had so many problems lately with knowing when and when not to take the final shot of the game? >>

I think a big part of it is that we don't call timeouts as a rule like other teams do. Doesn't matter if theres 25 seconds, 15 seconds or 5 seconds. Nelson has the team run, and hope they find the open man.

I know we've called a couple timeouts this year, but we just don't set up plays like other teams do.

I think they get rushed and just aren't prepared like they could be. I know it also allows the other team to set up defensively, but I think the Mavs would benefit from calling a timeout from time to time.

MFFL · 02-23-2003, 11:03 PM

You bring up a good point member. If the Mavs want the final shot of the game then why attack? The point of attacking is to get a good shot when you can. The point of the final shot is that there isn't another shot afterwards. Either we attack and take shots when they come or we set up for Dirk/Nash/Finley/NVE to take that last shot.

Weird, huh.

dude1394 · 02-24-2003, 07:39 AM

To get the last shot you may have to pass up what seems a very good shot. Many times a prayer so what is better:

- Take a very good shot with a greater than 50% chance of making it.
- Take a desperation shot with less than 30% chance of making it but do no better than overtime.

I'm not sure I have a learned opinion on it.

LRB · 02-24-2003, 09:00 AM

<< To get the last shot you may have to pass up what seems a very good shot. Many times a prayer so what is better:

- Take a very good shot with a greater than 50% chance of making it.
- Take a desperation shot with less than 30% chance of making it but do no better than overtime.

I'm not sure I have a learned opinion on it. >>

The game situation is what is the most important consideration in taking a open shot early or waiting for the last shot.

Let's assume for simplicity sake's that there is time for a 50% and a 30%. We have the ball and can hold from a 30% shot or take a 50% shot and give the other team a chance to get a 30% shot. According to ESPN.com the Mavs get about 25% of all missed shots on our offensive end.

If we hold for the final shot we have a 30% of winning, 70% chance of going into overtime, and 0% chance of losing in regulation.

If we shoot early we have around a 38% chance of winning, 51% chance of going into overtime, and 11% chance of losing in regulation.

So by taking the early shot we increase our chance of winning in regulation by 8% which is good. But we increase our chance of losing even more by 11%. To me the risks outweigh the rewards. Hold the ball for one shot.

Usually Lurkin · 02-24-2003, 09:13 AM

heh, heh. Who wants to do all that math when you can just shoot the ball, LRB? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]
maybe they should calculate rebounding ratios for the game being played.
Or better yet, for those players that are nearest the basket at the time the shot goes up.

dude1394 · 02-24-2003, 09:16 AM

<<

<< To get the last shot you may have to pass up what seems a very good shot. Many times a prayer so what is better:

- Take a very good shot with a greater than 50% chance of making it.
- Take a desperation shot with less than 30% chance of making it but do no better than overtime.

I'm not sure I have a learned opinion on it. >>

The game situation is what is the most important consideration in taking a open shot early or waiting for the last shot.

Let's assume for simplicity sake's that there is time for a 50% and a 30%. We have the ball and can hold from a 30% shot or take a 50% shot and give the other team a chance to get a 30% shot. According to ESPN.com the Mavs get about 25% of all missed shots on our offensive end.

If we hold for the final shot we have a 30% of winning, 70% chance of going into overtime, and 0% chance of losing in regulation.

If we shoot early we have around a 38% chance of winning, 51% chance of going into overtime, and 11% chance of losing in regulation.

So by taking the early shot we increase our chance of winning in regulation by 8% which is good. But we increase our chance of losing even more by 11%. To me the risks outweigh the rewards. Hold the ball for one shot. >>

So if the 50% shot goes up to 80%(layup) is it still a good deal?

Chiwas · 02-24-2003, 10:02 AM

Eduardo Najera scored eight points on 4-for-4 shooting.
Mitchell Layton
NBAE/Getty Images

LRB · 02-24-2003, 10:21 AM

Obviously the number I used earlier to justify waiting to take the last shot are just approximations. Layups (Dude) or who's rebounding (UL) can change the complexity. But all in all in most cases when tied, the reward for shooting earlier when a good shot is offered over waiting to make sure the shot taken is the last one, does not justify the risk.

Both Finely and Dirk made this mistake. However the odds change significantly for when we are behind. Then it behooves us to take the best shot we can get so we have the best opportunity for a 2nd chance if we miss. This is because no shot will lose it for us if we're behind. So no shot is a high risk behavior. If we're tied no shot is a low risk behavior.

Usually Lurkin · 02-24-2003, 10:40 AM

I was mostly joking earlier, but the question could be looked at more seriously.

You're describing the case of calculating win/loss probabilities based on situational probabilities that are averaged for the year.

Players on the floor, shot type, and a million other variables can go into the win/loss calculation, and minute adjustments in the win/loss probabilities can be calculated.

Can a professional basketball player be expected to calculate the finer adjustments during play?

Nelson seems to think so, at least when constraints are in place, reducing the number of variables. He goes with the more offensive line up, so that anyone might have a good chance of hitting the shot. He doesn't call a lot of timeouts, and encourages players to 'play their game', so that they know the decision is up to them. He's basically banking on the fact that Dallas has a great offense, and in any given situation, will have a high probability of scoring. Or maybe he figures a 2%-5% swing in probability is just not worth a timeout.

Others might think that the finer calculations are well worth the time out. Then the team has some time to make certain that everyone knows what the highest win/loss probability will be, and can figure out the best way to get it done. Of course, this might not work so well with a bunch of guys who play better in the flow of things than in a half-court, set-play kind of situation.

dude1394 · 02-24-2003, 11:28 AM

<< Obviously the number I used earlier to justify waiting to take the last shot are just approximations. Layups (Dude) or who's rebounding (UL) can change the complexity. But all in all in most cases when tied, the reward for shooting earlier when a good shot is offered over waiting to make sure the shot taken is the last one, does not justify the risk.

Both Finely and Dirk made this mistake. However the odds change significantly for when we are behind. Then it behooves us to take the best shot we can get so we have the best opportunity for a 2nd chance if we miss. This is because no shot will lose it for us if we're behind. So no shot is a high risk behavior. If we're tied no shot is a low risk behavior. >>

I believe i'm in pretty much agreement with you if only because you can't lose by NOT even taking a shot, so the safe play is to go for the shot with less than 1 second to go. You will of course be more likely to not get a shot at all and therefore not give yourself a realisitic opportunity to win the game. You would also be less likely to be ahead at the end if you try to wait for the last shot, but take it with .5 for example.

Bookit · 02-24-2003, 11:43 AM

MFF said that Finley's shot in Minnesota was taken with 8 seconds left. This is incorrect. The 'Wolves got the ball back with 8 seconds left after it bounced over the backboard. Finley actually took the shot with about 11 or 12 seconds. Everybody in the building was aware of the strategy but Finley. It was a major screw up. Also, it was likely that Fin would miss that shot anyways. He just doesn't make those threes at the end of the game anymore for some reason.

Dirk's situation was slightly different. It was stunning to see Dirk miss that clutch shot yesterday. He always makes clutch buckets and when that shot left his hands you could almost book it(my nickname). But since he missed that shot I guess it would have been better to drive to the hoop and draw a foul. I would have been sick it the Mavs would have lost on Jordan's last second shot.

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 11:45 AM

with about 3.5-4.0 seconds on the clock, you have to take the open look.
to be honest, it was a considerably different situation than the fin incident..much less time on the clock.

a shot to perhaps question would be the shot that nash took before dirk's look..an iffy decision but still not in the same class as the fin decision a few games back

MFFL · 02-24-2003, 12:41 PM

<< with about 3.5-4.0 seconds on the clock, you have to take the open look. >>

6 seconds left when Dirk shot the ball.

<< to be honest, it was a considerably different situation than the fin incident..much less time on the clock.

a shot to perhaps question would be the shot that nash took before dirk's look..an iffy decision but still not in the same class as the fin decision a few games back >>

Why did I know you would be defending Dirk? Of course it wasn't a bad decision, Dirk is the one who shot the ball.

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 12:47 PM

MFFL, don't try and start something..dirk's shot compared to fin's isn't even comparable.

i realize your upset because you love fin, but you're out of line

sure, it would have been great to take another tick off of the clock or so, but with that little time left, there's a good chance that if dirk doesn't take the shot there, the mavs might not get a good look.

but it's in no way in the same class as fin's screw up

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 12:55 PM

in that situation, i have issue with the shot dirk took...not that time on the clock
he should have drove to the basket IMO.

however, i apologize for not getting on here to criticize him. because of outside issues, i haven't had the opportunity to get on here much

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 12:57 PM

and regardless of what you think..in that situation, i wouldn't have had an issue with virtually anyone taking a shot with that much time left (even bradley or NVE)
but, i would like to have seen dirk drive and pull up

turbo.mav · 02-24-2003, 01:01 PM

I just wish Dirk had driven and thrown it down... and the fin shot vs dirk shot arguments are really f'in stupid. fin made a mistake, everyone does(fin alot less than most), he holds himself accountable more than anyone on here and that should be closure enough.

dude1394 · 02-24-2003, 01:09 PM

I really was hoping this wouldn't degrade into a this versus that player, but oh well. What I was hoping for was less virtriole and more discussion on the merits. Too much to ask I guess.

MFFL · 02-24-2003, 01:10 PM

<< MFFL, don't try and start something..dirk's shot compared to fin's isn't even comparable.

i realize your upset because you love fin, but you're out of line

sure, it would have been great to take another tick off of the clock or so, but with that little time left, there's a good chance that if dirk doesn't take the shot there, the mavs might not get a good look.

but it's in no way in the same class as fin's screw up >>

What about Nash shooting with 8 seconds left? Wasn't THAT a comparable screw up? We got the offensive rebound again so we had a second chance but still...

There is NO DOUBT that Finley catches a ton more criticsm more than Dirk or Nash. Just look over the game threads. Finley played a hell of a game yesterday (for the whole day unlike some) and he got called a CHOKER.

MFFL · 02-24-2003, 01:12 PM

<< Stupid shot by Finley, but hey, it's crunch time...what else do you expect? >>

bump

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 01:16 PM

well, mffl, as i'm sure you noticed..i don't really post in the game day threads much anymore..and rarely read them

but, if fin was called a choker..that is way out of line. Whoever said that Fin is a "choker" should probably re-think their sport of choice because they really don't know basketball.

the nash shot, yeah, that was more comparable to the fin mistake..but not as bad because nash was also dealing with a shot clock (although he still shot the ball too early)

fin has exceeded all of my expectations for him this year and deserves credit for that... and i actually think i do a decent job of giving him credit. the board as a whole, well..i don't read 50% of the crap that's on here so i wouldn't exactly know. but yes, some people go overboard..and calling him a "choker" is doing just that

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 01:19 PM

and for the record...virtually all of the scorers make bad decisions during crunch time..
it's prt of the mavs offensive philosophy coming to bite them in the ass.
why do you think teams seem to always make a run against the mavs during crunch time?

poor shot selection..poor coaching decisions..poor play calling

mavs_afroman · 02-24-2003, 02:10 PM

<<

<< MFFL, don't try and start something..dirk's shot compared to fin's isn't even comparable.

i realize your upset because you love fin, but you're out of line

sure, it would have been great to take another tick off of the clock or so, but with that little time left, there's a good chance that if dirk doesn't take the shot there, the mavs might not get a good look.

but it's in no way in the same class as fin's screw up >>

What about Nash shooting with 8 seconds left? Wasn't THAT a comparable screw up? We got the offensive rebound again so we had a second chance but still...

There is NO DOUBT that Finley catches a ton more criticsm more than Dirk or Nash. Just look over the game threads. Finley played a hell of a game yesterday (for the whole day unlike some) and he got called a CHOKER. >>

So do you want people to criticize Dork and Nash more, or criticize Fin less? I would agree with you that Fin gets criticized quite often but your point gets lost when you just try to compare his mistakes to other players' or try to prove that they're as bad as he is instead of just arguing for or against FINLEY. I didn't think Finley choked on the freethrow either, but I would just say that instead of trying to point out why and when other players choke too.

MFFL · 02-24-2003, 02:22 PM

<< So do you want people to criticize Dork and Nash more, or criticize Fin less? I would agree with you that Fin gets criticized quite often but your point gets lost when you just try to compare his mistakes to other players' or try to prove that they're as bad as he is instead of just arguing for or against FINLEY. I didn't think Finley choked on the freethrow either, but I would just say that instead of trying to point out why and when other players choke too. >>

I don't care which way the blame game gets played. It just needs to be consistent. If you rip one player for a bad decision then rip them all when they make similar mistakes.

MavsFanFinley · 02-24-2003, 03:39 PM

<< I don't care which way the blame game gets played. It just needs to be consistent. If you rip one player for a bad decision then rip them all when they make similar mistakes. >>

This is the heart of what frustrates most of us Finley fans. Fin gets ripped more than any other Mavs player. Even when others make similar mistakes, namely Dirk and Nash.

Did ANYONE watch NBA2Nite? Fred Carter (much like he did with Finley and the Minnesota game) talked about Dirk taking that last shot way too soon. They froze the frame when the ball was just about to leave Dirks hands and there was 6.3 seconds left.

The Fin and Dirk shot are comparable. They both took a shot too soon and didn't appear to be aware of the time. The difference is that Fin had more time on the clock, but both still took the shot too soon and gave the other team a chance to win it. In Fin's case we lost, in Dirk's case we were able to win it in OT.

Another example, how many times have we seen 10-15 different posters show up when Fin is turning the ball over or jacking up some crazy shot and point it out? We had, what, maybe 5-7 posters admit Dirk and Nash looked out of it in the first half of the game?

Will anyone admit, other than Finley fans, that if that had been Fin turning the ball over (namely that inbounds play), taking contested shots, throwing lazy passes, walking away while the other teams player is about to shoot a ft, that we would have had a riot here?

FilthyFinMavs · 02-24-2003, 04:23 PM

I agree MFF and MFFL. FIf Fin took that same shot there would have been "Trade Fin" talk. But since Dirk took it with 6.3 seconds left it is excusable? I am with MFFL here. I don't care if people blame Fin for a stupid mistake but why have it one way and not the other? How can you say takinga shot with 6.3 seconds is a good shot when you could've used more time off the clock? If you are faced with taking a prayer over taking a easy shot with more time left you do it. Regardless you take prayers. With Dirk there is no such thing as a prayer. He is 7 foot tall. No one on the Wizards is even 6'10 for that matter. I don't believe we should bash any player so I am not going to sit here and say we should. We should just see it as a mistake in the REGULAR SEASON and go along with it. No reason for threads of how stupid Fin is or we should trade him to get Brian Grant. Maybe it is because we are Fin fans we believe he should be treated with just as much respect as Dirk gets. I must admit this whole Dirk kissing is getting a bit sick. I remember the days Nash use to get that same love. Looks as if Nash is starting to be liked as much as Fin is now.

Murphy3 · 02-24-2003, 04:25 PM

dirk looked out of it at first...
yes, dirk took the shot slightly too early but this instance wasn't remotely as blatant as the finley instance

Bookit · 02-24-2003, 04:36 PM

MFF, weren't you the one who was bitching about Finley taking that shot in Minnesota? Actually, you were more hard on him than everyone else. Or was that just emotion? Why weren't you angry and loudly calling out Dirk after his shot against Washington? I submit to you that Dirk hits more clutch shots than Finley or Nash and you felt more comfortable with Dirk taking that shot. After watching Dirk closely for years, wouldn't you feel more comfortable with Dirk taking that shot than Nash, Finley, or whomever? Dirk is our best clutch shooter and that is why he gets a little slack. Just my opinion.