Offseason Blues

[Folterkammer]

Offseason Blues
You Want Pierce; We Give You DJ

By David Lord and Mike Fisher -- DallasBasketball.com
No, we haven't solidified in our minds ways for the Mavs to acquire Paul Pierce or Lorenzen Wright or Gary Payton or Nick Van Exel; in fact, in some cases, we can't even justify pursuing some of the gossip-mill/trading-block names.
But we think we've found a way to make it easier to keep DJ Mbenga around here in the future. Does that help ease the offseason blues any?
According to the NBA's summary of their newly completed Collective Bargaining Agreement, a barely-mentioned change in the rules in the final version will make it easier for the Mavs to retain Mbenga if he improves significantly this year before becoming a free agent next summer -- and the change might also help the Mavs to retain Josh Powell and perhaps others in subsequent years.
The new rule, commonly nicknamed the Arenas Rule, is one that will apply to any player who is a free agent and has completed only one or two years in the league. The rule will apply equally to players who were not drafted as well as to those who were. Such free agents have always been restricted, which allows their prior team to match a contract offer if they have cap room. But if a team had a player who improved rapidly and they lacked cap room, under prior rules a large unmatchable offer in free agency could sometimes whisk them away just as they began to blossom. Well, not any more.
The Arenas Rule now limits the allowable offers for first and second year players to an amount that is easily matchable even if their prior team is over the cap. The most another team will now be able to offer to such a player will be "the Average Player Salary plus 8%" for the first year of the offer. That amount is the same as the Mid-Level Exception (MLE). Since a team over the cap is given an MLE every year, they now will have the ability to match any offer and retain their young blossoming player if they so desire.
For those players who have finished two years, there is even more flexibility. In general, a team with any free agent who has been with the team (or on the same contract) for two years has Early Bird rights. Those rights allow the team the ability to offer a contract beginning with a salary as large as "the Average Player Salary plus 8%" on a new contract. Therefore, if the player who has only been in the league for two years receives an offer for the largest amount possible under the Arenas rule (which is that same MLE or EB amount), the team can retain him by using their EB rights to match the offer, and still retain their valuable MLE for use elsewhere.
OK, so this is small potatoes compared to some of the available Mavs gossip, which includes a plot to acquire Boston's Pierce, a complicated method of persuading too-deep Memphis to give up Wright, Orlando flip-flopping on its willingness to part with Doug Christie in a Michael Finley swap, Marquis Daniels being dumped in favor of Gary Payton and back-to-the-future desires involving everyone from Nick Van Exel to Calvin Booth to Wesley Person.
We're usually glass-is-half-full guys around here, so we'll lean toward the skeptical on all these rumors:
# Is Boston really willing to dump Antoine Walker one week and Paul Pierce the next? Pierce is obviously the far more gifted of the two - and in fact, too gifted to give away, even though we'll always be haunted with the knowledge that when he played with Fin and under George Karl in those World Championships, Pierce often exited the huddle by mumbling, "Paul Pierce don't run that play.'' If the price is high, would he really be worth the cost?

# As we've addressed in this space before, Memphis' roster looks like there must be more moves coming, and Wright is widely rumored to be on the trading block - which matches the Mavs' top priority. (Wright rotating in behind Damp? Excellent!) Still can't figure out why they'd dump a rare commodity like a center, though.

# In Orlando, you can't get a straight answer out of management, which one day swears up and down that Christie is a part of their future and the next day talks about waiving him. Meanwhile, we wonder this about Mrs. Christie's husband: is the idea of him being a turn-it-on-in-the-playoffs solution for the Mavs a bit screwy, considering the fact that the Kings considered him a bit of a postseason choker?

# Gary Payton? If you watched him struggle with the playoff Lakers, you saw how he was worn down to the nub. Maybe he qualifies as that Horry-type -- let him cruise as the third PG through the regular season and be a hero in the spring. Hmmm. Then again, we have to wonder if, when you tell GP he's third-string til the playoffs, he'll throw some free weights at you. And since when are we so down on Marquis Daniels, the rumored price for Payton, whose greatest crime is a slow recovery from a bum ankle?

# Nick Van Exel would bring F 'Em attitude. And that Horry-fying thing. And we're afraid fans would be awfully disappointed to learn how long ago the 2002-03 season actually was. There's no question his forte has always been offense at the expense of defense, but if it's really true that last year he could only muster up 11 ppg while averaging over 30 mpg, is the sizzle gone from Nick the Quick?

# If you thought we were able to keep our cool regarding the possible signing of Phoenix backup center Stephen Hunter, wait until you see our non-backflips over Calvin Booth gossip. Nice, solid guy, but haven't we tried that already?

# One newspaper, in it's story on the signing of rookie free agent Rawle ("Rhymes With Y'all'') Marshall, noted that the 6-7 Marshall "has a 7-foot-3 wingspan and was the valedictorian of his high school class. ... ehich at this early stage means nothing more than the ease with which he was able to reach out from the principal and grab his diploma. But in the same story, the paper throws out the name of Wesley Person. ... who we believe to still be somwhat in the NBA.
Hash through all these reserve center types and take a glance at the best the rumor mill has to offer, and well, now you know why the most exciting thing to talk about right now is the enhanced possibility of DJ Mbenga's future here.



Sounds to me like that`s the reason they sign so many undrafted players to these 2 year contracts , cause if they turn out to be studs they can easily retain them for a reasonable prize and if they turn out to be nothing more than the second coming of rigadeu they will be waved after one season. Another point is that i agree that nve isn`t what we need right now , he will probably sign with houston anyway because of his son who lives in houston

[kg_veteran]

Sounds to me like that`s the reason they sign so many undrafted players to these 2 year contracts , cause if they turn out to be studs they can easily retain them for a reasonable prize and if they turn out to be nothing more than the second coming of rigadeu they will be waved after one season.

Exactly. More specifically, 2 year deals with the 2nd year being a team option. The Mavs have the option of protecting themselves and keeping the player or they have the option of letting the player go if they don't work out.

[Thespiralgoeson]

(yawn)

[u2sarajevo]

I will agree to any bet that the Mavericks will NOT get Pierce this off-season no matter what.

You name it, I accept it.

It ain't happening.

[Blonde Bomber]

Originally posted by: Folterkammer
Offseason Blues


. Another point is that i agree that nve isn`t what we need right now , he will probably sign with houston anyway because of his son who lives in houston

I could have sworn his son lives in Garland and that NVE has a home in Houston...hmmm I guess I could be wrong

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: u2sarajevo
I will agree to any bet that the Mavericks will NOT get Pierce this off-season no matter what.

You name it, I accept it.

It ain't happening.

If if doesn't happen, which I agree that it probably won't, it will be because Boston keeps him.

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: Thespiralgoeson

If if doesn't happen, which I agree that it probably won't, it will be because Boston keeps him.

Isn't that stating the obvious? Or are you saying that he won't be traded anywhere? If so, I tend to agree with that. I think they keep Pierce around so that the team remains fairly competitive until their youngsters grow up.

[dude1394]

Originally posted by: Blonde Bomber

I could have sworn his son lives in Garland and that NVE has a home in Houston...hmmm I guess I could be wrong

YOU are correct bb per everything I've read.

[Thespiralgoeson]

You never know. When I heard that the Mavs might trade Van Exel for Jamison, I didn't think it would happen. The next season, Damp was dominating the glass. The whole time, I thought (I wish we could get him, but it'll never happen) and what do you know, the Mavs acquire Dampier in a sign-and-trade. Of course, on the flipside, I also thought we'd never just let Nash walk... You just never know.

[snoop]

I have faith the mavs will do everything in their power to improve this team. I also think this team is pretty damn good and just had a bad run in the playoffs. This is the team all of us wanted 2 yrs ago when we had no d minded players. I love Damp, Dirk, J-ho and Harris(who will be great, hopefully with us) and believe this is a great core of players. Do we need tweaks in our personel? Yeah I would say so, but I don't think a total over haul is in order. Not to the extent of having to give up Harris or Howard to get a volume scorer. Hopefully, we will get Hunter and Christie and make a decsion on Mike that will in one way or another (i.e cap room or talent) help this team. We have all the peices in place just need time and a tweak here and there and I think we'll be fine.

[The Miles]

Yeah, isn't it about time for our yearly cherry pick session with the Warriors roster?

Let's save them some money Mark, come on buddy. TAW fo Fisher or Foyle and Mickael Pietrus!

Saves them mountains of cash and gets us Joe Johnson Jr. to earn the SG spot.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Snoop, I agree that this is the team we all wished we had in previous years, and that we don't need an over haul. However, I just don't think that we'll ever be able to win it all unless we have an all-star calibur player at SG. As I've said before, I honestly think the only thing really seperating us from San Antonio is Ginobili. We need an SG who's a threat from inside and out, can play some point so as to improve ball movement and take some of the load off of JET, and can play some perimeter D. The Christie of old did all of those things, but at this point in his career I really only see him as a nice 6th man. If we're ever going to beat San Antonio, and win a title, I really think we're going to need a guy that can match up with the T-Macs, the D-Waydes etc... At this point, we don't even match up against the Ginobilis and the Ray Allens of the NBA. Maybe I'm wrong (I hope so) but I just don't think an SG rotation of Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels, and/or Doug Christie is enough for us to win a title. I just don't think signing Christie and Steven Hunter is enough to put us on the same level as the Spurs.

Originally posted by: snoop< Not to the extent of having to give up Harris or Howard to get a volume scorer.

I don't know if that statement was about Pierce, but if it was, while I agree about not giving up Josh, Pierce is a volume scorer? If scoring 21.6 ppg off of a .455 FG% makes him a volume scorer, then I'll take that volume scorer any day (Dirk's FG% is .459) Not to mention the guy averaged more points, more rebounds, and more assists than Joe Johnson, and actually played fewer minutes too. Kinda funny considering JJ's pissed about being the 4th option on that team, whereas PP is the franchise player in Boston. He also averaged fewer minutes than Finley, btw. Of course I wanna keep Josh, but I'd give up Harris for that "volume scorer" any day.

[Folterkammer]

I am pretty confident that marquis daniels can become a volume scorer. he already has the ability to create his own shot anytime he just needs more range. his defense might become exceptionally good with more playing time and more experience and his handlings are good enough to run an offense for about 10 minutes a game . another point is that he has good eyes and can post triple doubles just like PP if given enough time to get comfortable with this new mavs team . i am just not willing to give up on such a great talent and locker room fit ( his friendship with howard is in my opinion really important for the future of this team and these two might become one of the best 2/3 tandems defense and offense wise the mavs ever had) just because he had a bad year with ankle problems involved .

[Thespiralgoeson]

I agree that Marquis and Devin will one day be very good players, but how long will that take? I'm afraid that Dirk by the time these guys realize their potential, Dirk will be past his prime, and we'll have missed our chance. Or worse yet, they may never live up to those expectations. Devin could be a top 5 PG one day, but we don't know that he'll ever be able to run an offense effectively. And I'm honestly not holding out any expectations for Marquis ever to become an outside threat. Dirk just turned 27, so I say we've got 3 years or so before he starts to decline. Nobody wants to give up Devin or Marquis, but unless one of both of these guys has a breakout season next year, I just don't think we've got a team that will get to the finals. My dream is for Dirk to win MVP and to carry us to a title in the same year. Unless we have an upgrade at the 2 spot, I just can't see that happening.

[dirno2000]

I don’t think we necessarily need another star at the two, we just need another star. I my mind the problem is that the gap between our 1st and 2nd best player is by far the biggest of all the western conference contenders. Last summer I thought Devin was going to be that second star. While I still think he’ll be really good, he’s obviously not going to reach star level this season. What I didn’t foresee last summer was the improvement in Josh. Nellie was on to something when he told Josh “whatever you think your ceiling is, you need to raise it”. Where I once had him pegged as a role-player, I now think he an be an 18/19 point 7/8 rebound per game guy (it’s going to be hard to average many more rebounds than that playing with Dirk and Damp). Ginobli isn’t a superstar, he’s just a very good player who can rise to the occasion when it counts. He wasn’t even a full time starter until last season. Josh has shown traces of being able to step up his game but we need to see more. There were stretches in the playoffs where he was the best player on the court; he just needs to extend them…especially on the road.

He improved his mid range shot from year one to year two. Now if he can continue that trend and also shoot around 35% from behind the line the we have something. Right now he has a better chance of being a star quality player then Devin or Quis and if we can’t make a deal then a lot of our hope for a successful season lies with him.

[Thespiralgoeson]

I agree that we need another "star" and that Josh is probably that guy. The reason I say we need someone like that at SG is primarily because of ball movement. We've never needed much of a passer at SG, because we always had Nash. Jason Kidd and Steve Nash are the two guys in the NBA who can make an offense move smoothely even if the other 4 guys on the court are bad passers. But now that we don't have Nash, we need an extra passer in the backcourt. Someone, like Ginobili, or the Christie of old who can play some point and make the offense flow. Think about it, all the elite teams have a guard combo like that except us. SA has Parker and Manu, Detroit has Chauncey and Rip, Miami now has Williams and Wade, Phoenix had Nash and JJ, and the old Kings had Bibby and Christie. Now, Marquis is the kind of big guard that can play some point and post up smaller guards, but I just don't know if he can do it well consistently. Also, I really think we need our starting SG to have 3 pt range. True, Parker and Ginobili aren't the best shooters in the league, but that's balanced by the fact that Duncan dominates the post, giving them open looks. Dirk himself is a shooter/slasher, not someone who owns the post. Another thing we need from the 2/3 spot is solid perimeter defense; someone who can stay in front of Nash and T-Mac. Josh could be that guy, but the playoffs showed that he's clearly not there yet. So, again I say we need solid shooting, passing, and defense from the 2 spot. Maybe we could get past San Antonio if Josh becomes a 17/8 guy, but I just don't think so.

[M3Man]

At this point, its all about the ifs.

If Quis just learns to hit open shots in the lane, his scoring average will go way up, and so will his playing time. He seems to have incredible ability to get open, and an awful time converting. If he can get his 15 footers to go in, and figure out when to shoot and when to pass, he'll be our Ginobli, and we'll be fine at the 2. Does anyone know if he showed any improvement in the summer leagues?

Last year, Terry had to learn the entire offense. All he needed to do this summer is learn to run the pick and roll. If he did, he'll get more Nash like open 3's, Dirk will get more open 3's, and his post game will get a lot better, just because of the outside threat and getting the ball in better spots on the floor. Anyone know how Jason spent his summer?

We all know how Devin spent his. Healing, right? He is Mr If. If he can play well enough to stay on the floor, and if the coaches stop yanking him every time he makes a mistake, maybe we can find out if he has the mind to match his talents. I'm not sure who needs to learn patience more- Harris or his coaches.

If these three guys show the needed growth this summer, we instantly get a lot more ball movement, and maybe less standing around watching Dirk go 1 on 1. We'd be good without Fin, and better with him. All thats mising is a good, mobile back up center. We might not even need that If MBenga shows some growth as well.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Still doesn't put us past the Spurs... :/

[dirno2000]

Originally posted by: M3Man
At this point, its all about the ifs.

If Quis just learns to hit open shots in the lane, his scoring average will go way up, and so will his playing time. He seems to have incredible ability to get open, and an awful time converting. If he can get his 15 footers to go in, and figure out when to shoot and when to pass, he'll be our Ginobli, and we'll be fine at the 2. Does anyone know if he showed any improvement in the summer leagues?

Last year, Terry had to learn the entire offense. All he needed to do this summer is learn to run the pick and roll. If he did, he'll get more Nash like open 3's, Dirk will get more open 3's, and his post game will get a lot better, just because of the outside threat and getting the ball in better spots on the floor. Anyone know how Jason spent his summer?

We all know how Devin spent his. Healing, right? He is Mr If. If he can play well enough to stay on the floor, and if the coaches stop yanking him every time he makes a mistake, maybe we can find out if he has the mind to match his talents. I'm not sure who needs to learn patience more- Harris or his coaches.

If these three guys show the needed growth this summer, we instantly get a lot more ball movement, and maybe less standing around watching Dirk go 1 on 1. We'd be good without Fin, and better with him. All thats mising is a good, mobile back up center. We might not even need that If MBenga shows some growth as well.

Good 1st post, welcome to the board.

Only one of our Las Vegas games was televised and Quis looked ok in that game...not great but ok. He was moving around better than he did most of the time last season and he knocked down a couple of open jumpers. He's much more effective with the ball in his hands then he is playing off the ball so if his decision making improves it would allow JT to play off the ball and knock down open 3's.

Devin is fine and probably could have played in Salt Lake. He was shooting at halftime of the game in Frisco a couple of weeks ago. Avery will be more patient than Nellie who pouted all season because his security blanket was taken away...he hated all of our point guards because they were'nt Steve Nash.

[Thespiralgoeson]

Originally posted by: dirno2000 He's much more effective with the ball in his hands then he is playing off the ball so if his decision making improves it would allow JT to play off the ball and knock down open 3's.

(sigh) If only Terry were 6'6.

[dude1394]

Why does the prolific scorer need to be a sg versus a sf (ala josh). Josh looks to be the second best player who can be a scorer on the mavs. I hate to even qualify him as a sf as his handle look about as good as ginobbli's imo.

If we are saying that we need a shooting guard (who can shoot) to spread the defense then that has some validity. Only issue I see with josh/dirk being the two top scoreres for us is can avery design an offense to make sure they complement each other rather than get in each others way.

If josh can get his outside shot more consistent (big if) then he will be an all-star this year.

My take here is that it's going to be dirk, josh, damp who are the keys here. (As usual it's the front line). Stackhouse can be that instant offense and terry has to learn how to be a point guard.

We still lack outside shooting from someone other than dirk/jason.

[dalmations202]

can avery design an offense to make sure they complement each other rather than get in each others way.

I think this goes for the whole team.

I've been questioning this since the playoffs. Since Dallas doesn't really have 1 on 1 guys, nor pick -n-roll guys, why is the offense designed primarily for these two offensive skillsets?

PS: They can't run an inside/out game either, because they do not have the inside guy that demands the double/triple team to play it. They also don't have the spot-up 3pt shooters to play the inside/out game.

[sike]

"I don’t think we necessarily need another star at the two, we just need another star."

could Howard, Quis, Harris, or Stack be that second star?

[dalmations202]

could Howard, Quis, Harris, or Stack be that second star?

I haven't seen anything that would make me think so.
Stack is too old to change, and is a very good 2nd tier SG, Good, perhaps All-Star sometimes good, but not Star.
Howard and Quis have shown some game, but neither has shown the ability to score on anyone anytime. Neither has the jumper to go with it.
Harris is the one with the biggest potential, but he didn't shine last year like a Wade, or other high pick in the draft. He has been called a backup by Avery, and can't really beat out a good PG in Terry, but Terry is not a Star either. His game could jump dramatically this next year though, and I think he might make it.

Overall though, I wouldn't bet on any of them being stars, although one or two of them might have an All-Star year or two.