General Pres. Candidate 08 Thread

[dude1394]

Chum you are just being argumentative.

Guillliani, McCain, Romney, Hillary, Kerry all have tons more qualifications than Obama does.

You can wish it, dream about it, hope for it all you want...but that just doesn't make it so. Nor does it change historical election results.

[MavKikiNYC]

Frist bows out.

[Mavdog]

and obama is looking like he's in
----------------------------------------------
Obama to Make First New Hampshire Visit
Possible Presidential Candidate Sen. Barack Obama to Visit Early Voting State of New Hampshire
By BEVERLEY WANG
The Associated Press
CONCORD, N.H. - Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, who is mulling a presidential bid, will make his first visit to New Hampshire next month.

The Illinois senator will join the state's Democrats on Dec. 10 for a belated celebration of their big win in the midterm election. Obama has traveled to Iowa, site of the leadoff presidential caucuses, but New Hampshire hasn't been on his itinerary.


Obama has gotten encouragement to seek the presidency in 2008 from fellow Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin, who sent a letter to political supporters this week encouraging them to sign a "Run, Barack, Run" petition.


"Barack has said publicly that he is considering a run, and part of his consideration will doubtlessly include measuring the level of his support from Democrats across the country," Durbin wrote. "So let's show him how strong that support is."


Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs said Obama did not know Durbin was sending the letter until after it was out. Gibbs said Obama's only response was that he always appreciates Durbin's counsel and support.


Two other draft Obama efforts are online. Democrat Todd Webster, who was a spokesman for former Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle, created at http://www.runobama.com. He said more than 400 people had signed his petition as of Tuesday, six days after he launched the site.


Another effort went online in October and was revamped this week: http://www.draftobama.org/node. A press statement on the Web site says it was created by computer technician Ben Stanfield of Rockville, Md., who purchased the domain name in 2004 after seeing Obama's keynote speech to the Democratic National Convention.


Though still in his first term in the Senate, Obama has attracted national attention for his fresh face, commanding speaking style and compelling personal story. He plans a Friday night appearance on "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" to promote his best-selling book, "The Audacity of Hope."


While in California, Obama also plans to visit the Saddleback megachurch in Orange County, home pulpit to Rick Warren, author of the best-seller "The Purpose-Driven Life."


Conservative evangelical Rob Schenck, president of the National Clergy Council, is protesting the visit because of Obama's support of abortion rights.


The race for the 2008 Democratic nomination is considered wide open, and at least a dozen potential contenders are weighing formal bids, including front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.


Obama generated buzz in September when he was the keynote speaker at Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's 29th annual steak fry. After the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire is the first primary state.


"We are honored that Senator Obama has accepted our invitation to celebrate the historic, tidal wave victory New Hampshire's Democrats experienced this November," state party Chairwoman Kathy Sullivan said Tuesday in announcing the visit.


Democrats took both of the state's U.S. House seats, the Democratic governor won re-election by a record margin and the historically GOP-dominated Legislature and Executive Council both swung to Democratic control.

On the Net:
Durbin letter on Obama: http://ga3.org/campaign/obama?sourceobama

Draft Obama Web sites: http://www.runobama.com

http://www.draftobama.org/node

[dude1394]

I will say that obama is being smart here, running before he's done much in the legislature for folks to understand his policies and before he has to support the current democratic leadership.

But I still don't think he has the stuff to get it.

[chumdawg]

Despite dude1934's protestations to the contrary, I believe that Obama is the frontrunner.

[Drbio]

Did Steve Nash file?

[chumdawg]

Take it to another thread, big guy.

[aexchange]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Despite dude1934's protestations to the contrary, I believe that Obama is the frontrunner.

looks like it and i hope it is the case.

[Mavdog]

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 17-19, 2006. N=530 registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or independents who lean to the Democratic Party. MoE ± 4.
.
"Please tell me which of the following people you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008 . . . ." Names rotated
.
11/17-19/06 10/27-29/06 8/30 - 9/2/06
% % %
Hillary Clinton 33 28 38
Barack Obama 15 17 n/a
John Edwards 14 13 12
Al Gore 14 13 19
John Kerry 7 12 9
Wesley Clark 4 n/a n/a
Joe Biden 3 2 3
Bill Richardson 3 2 3
Evan Bayh 2 2 2
Tom Vilsack 1 1 -
Unsure 4 8 8
Russ Feingold n/a 2 3
Mark Warner n/a n/a 3
________________________________________

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Nov. 9-12, 2006. N=1,191 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Democratic voters.
.
"Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for president." If unsure: "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?" Names rotated
.
%
Hillary Clinton 39
Barack Obama 23
John Edwards 10
Al Gore 10
John Kerry 7
Joe Biden 2
Bill Richardson 1
Russ Feingold 1
None (vol.) 3
Unsure 4

[Dirkadirkastan]

Lisa Simpson: the first STRAIGHT female president.

[MavKikiNYC]

Originally Posted by Mavdog

CNN Poll conducted by Opinion Research Corporation. Nov. 17-19, 2006. N=530
.
"Now I am going to read you the names of some possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. AFTER I READ ALL THE NAMES, please tell me which one you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate for president." If unsure: "Well as of today, to whom do you most lean?" Names rotated
.
%
Hillary Clinton 39
Barack Obama 23
John Edwards 10
Al Gore 10
John Kerry 7
Joe Biden 2
Bill Richardson 1
Russ Feingold 1
None (vol.) 3
Unsure 4

Ironically, Joe Biden comes out as a two-percenter. As I long suspected.

[Epitome22]

If Al Gore decides to run, he's automaticly the front runner.

Barack Obama is definitely second.

Third is between the establishment favored, but Democratic base despised Hilary Clinton, and surprisingly enough, John Edwards.

Everyone else is Veep material at best.

[dude1394]

Run...al....RUNNNNNN....

Can't wait.

[Mavdog]

Brownback moves toward White House bid
By SAM HANANEL, Associated Press Writer
22 minutes ago

Republican Sen. Sam Brownback (news, bio, voting record), a favorite of the religious right, said Monday he is taking the first step toward launching a bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.

A vigorous abortion opponent, the Kansas senator pledged to make "issues of life," fiscal restraint and tax reform key components of his effort to woo supporters.

"I have decided, after much prayerful consideration, to consider a bid for the Republican nomination for the presidency," Brownback said in a statement. "There is a real need in our country to rebuild the family and renew our culture and there is a need for genuine conservatism and real compassion in the national discussion."

Brownback said he has formed a presidential exploratory committee, which will allow him to travel the country and raise money while gauging support for the GOP nomination.

He also announced 20 members of his exploratory advisory committee, an eclectic mix ranging from anti-abortion activists to business executives, including: Domino's Pizza founder Tom Monaghan, former Major League Baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn, and the Rev. Frank Pavone, head of the advocacy group Priests for Life.

Brownback has openly weighed a presidential bid for nearly two years, but has struggled to build a national profile despite more than a dozen trips to Iowa and other states with early nomination contests.

Still, he could influence members of the GOP's powerful conservative Christian wing skeptical of better-known, more moderate Republicans like Senator John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also have established exploratory committees.

Nevertheless, Brownback's bid is considered a long shot in what is shaping up to be a nomination race led by better-known candidates.

The number of possible candidates with a claim to the GOP's social conservative wing has shrunk in recent weeks with the defeat of Sen. George Allen (news, bio, voting record) of Virginia in the midterm election and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's decision to forego a run for president.

Brownback said he plans to visit 10 states over the next month, starting in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Tuesday.

Brownback's chief of staff, Rob Wasinger, will take over the exploratory committee and the senator will begin building his organization and staff immediately, spokesman Brian Hart said. Plans call for Brownback to open his main offices in the Kansas City, Kan., area.

Despite his strong appeal among Protestant evangelicals and his Methodist roots, Brownback converted to Roman Catholicism in 2002 with the support of Sen. Rick Santorum (news, bio, voting record), R-Pa., another prominent social conservative. He says his faith guides his opposition to abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

Brownback's faith also leads him to tackle social injustice around the world. He's spearheaded legislation to fight genocide in Sudan, cut down human slave trafficking and prison recidivism. Last week, he took an AIDS test with a potential White House rival on the Democratic side — Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois — to encourage others to be tested.

Brownback grew up on a farm near tiny Parker, Kan., where his parents still live. After receiving his law degree from the University of Kansas in 1982, he practiced law in Manhattan, Kan., and served as state agriculture secretary.

He was elected to the U.S. House in 1994 with the wave of Republicans who took control of both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Two years later, he won a special election to succeed Bob Dole in the Senate after Dole left the seat to run for president.

Brownback, who promised to serve no more than two terms, has said he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Apart from McCain and Giuliani, other potential GOP contenders for the White House include Sen. Chuck Hagel (news, bio, voting record) of Nebraska, Gov. George Pataki of New York, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rep. Duncan Hunter (news, bio, voting record) of California and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

[Drbio]

If Al Bore runs I will rejoice in the streets.

[Mavdog]

Wealthy Texans paying to derail Hillary Clinton

Many bank on outside '527' groups to help defeat candidates

06:17 AM CST on Monday, December 4, 2006
By WAYNE SLATER / The Dallas Morning News

AUSTIN – A Dallas businessman is helping bankroll an effort to derail Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential hopes, and he says he plans to tap other big-money Texans in the cause.

Richard Collins has put at least $80,000 into a group called Stop Her Now, which launched a new Web site last week targeting the possible frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2008.

"We expect to raise millions of dollars, a lot of it from online people and a lot of it from wealthy, conservative donors from around the country that want to keep Hillary Clinton from being elected president," Mr. Collins said.

The effort is the latest example of a small network of Texans with deep pockets funding independent committees, an expansion of their influence beyond just raising money directly for candidates. The groups, which emerged in the 2004 presidential campaign, are a powerful new force influencing national campaigns.

In addition to the Web site, which will feature cartoons and a series of animated shorts dubbed the "Hillary Show," Mr. Collins said the anti-Clinton group plans an aggressive direct-mail campaign.

"We're going to define Hillary as an ambitious, calculating, tough political operator who is trying to define herself as a centrist Democrat when, in fact, she's an ultraliberal Democrat," said Mr. Collins, who owns a newspaper group with publications in Cedar Hill, Duncanville, DeSoto, Lancaster and Grand Prairie.

Clinton supporter Garry Mauro dismissed the venture as a "bad investment."

"They should save their money to attack people who are relatively unknown," said Mr. Mauro, a former Texas land commissioner and long-time political ally of the Clintons.

Mr. Mauro said Ms. Clinton is so well-known that groups like Stop Her Now are likely to have little impact on changing the strong opinions that people already have about her.

Ms. Clinton won a lightly contested re-election race to her New York Senate seat in November and is weighing a presidential bid.

Ann Lewis, spokeswoman for Ms. Clinton's political committee, said the senator is prepared to defend herself against any group that mounts a serious attack, such as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads that caused problems for Democratic nominee John Kerry in 2004.

Three Texans – Houston homebuilder Bob Perry and Dallas businessmen T. Boone Pickens and Harold Simmons – provided most of the money for the group.

According to finance reports, the three gave $10.5 million, or 62 percent, of the group's funding. The group raised questions about Mr. Kerry's military service, which had been a strong point in his political portfolio, and helped scuttle his campaign against President Bush.

Such partisan groups, called 527s after a section of the tax code that governs them, are the product of new federal campaign-finance laws that outlaw major donations to political parties.

Big-dollar donors have turned to groups like MoveOn and Swift Boat Veterans, which can take unlimited contributions and target specific candidates.

In the presidential race two years ago, the largest contributor to such independent groups was New York financier George Soros, who donated $24 million to Democrat-leaning 527s but scaled back his spending in 2006.

This year, Mr. Perry is the largest individual contributor to such groups, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. He gave $6.7 million to a pair of GOP groups that targeted Democratic congressional candidates with television and automated-telephone attacks in nine states.

With a Democratic tide sweeping congressional races nationwide, the effort largely failed in House races but did help successful GOP efforts against Senate candidates Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee and Ned Lamont in Connecticut.

Looking toward 2008, Mr. Collins said he plans to solicit the Texans who bankrolled Swift Boat Veterans for his anti-Clinton effort.

"They are big players, and we want to play on the national stage," said Mr. Collins. "This is like an inverted pyramid, where you start with a small nucleus of people and you build from there."

Mr. Collins said he is not actively aligned with any potential GOP presidential candidate. Records show he has contributed $10,000 to Rudolph Giuliani's political action committee and $5,000 to Sen. John McCain's committee.

E-mail wslater@dallasnews.com

Bigger in Texas

Big-dollar Texas donors are major players in the independent political committees known as 527s, which are fast becoming a favored way to work for or against candidates. Here's a look at some major donations from Texans in each campaign since the committees emerged as a major funding source in 2004:


2008

REPUBLICAN

Donor: Richard Collins, Dallas County newspaper publisher

Amount: $80,000

Purpose: To launch an anti-Hillary Rodham Clinton Web site, StopHerNow.com, with plans to raise several million dollars to derail the senator's White House prospects



2006

REPUBLICAN

Donor: Bob Perry, Houston homebuilder

Amount: $6.7 million

Purpose: To fund GOP committees attacking Democratic congressional incumbents on television and with automated telephone calls in nine states, including West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa

DEMOCRAT

Donor: Linda Pritzker, Houston hotel heiress

Amount: $2.3 million

Purpose: To help Democratic committees for identification and get-out-the-vote efforts for congressional races in three dozen closely contested states, especially in the Midwest



2004

REPUBLICAN

Donor: Mr. Perry

Amount: $8 million

Purpose: To support Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and other GOP groups attacking Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's record of military service


Donor: Boone Pickens, Dallas oilman

Amount: $5.6 million

Purpose: To help Swift Boat Veterans and the Progress for America Voter Fund, which also targeted Mr. Kerry


Donor: Harold Simmons, Dallas investor

Amount: $4.5 million

Purpose: To help Swift Boat Veterans and other GOP groups targeting Mr. Kerry


Donor: Alice Walton, Mineral Wells rancher and Wal-Mart heiress

Amount: $2.6 million

Purpose: Progress for America Fund, which sponsored a television ad showing images of Osama bin Laden and other terrorists as an announcer asked: "Would you trust Kerry against these fanatic killers?"

Donor: Robert McNair, Houston energy executive

Amount: $1.6 million

Purpose: Republican groups including the Progress for America Fund and the Club for Growth, which supported President Bush's re-election and subsequently championed private Social Security accounts


Donor: Robert Rowling, Dallas hotel executive

Amount: $1 million

Purpose: Progress for America Voter Fund


Donor: G.J. Jensen, Irving

Amount: $1 million

Purpose: Club for Growth


DEMOCRAT

Donor: Ms. Pritzker

Amount: $3.5 million

Purpose: Democratic and liberal groups, including ACT Now and Planned Parenthood Votes, to organize registration and get-out-the vote efforts on behalf of Mr. Kerry


Donor: Jonathan McHale and Christine Mattso, Austin high-tech firm

Amount: $3 million

Purpose: The Media Fund, a liberal advocacy group that conducted a $50 million anti-Bush television ad campaign in 21 states and was key to keeping Mr. Kerry's candidacy afloat after he emptied his campaign treasury winning his party's nomination


Donor: James H. Clark, Dallas high-tech entrepreneur

Amount: $1 million

Purpose: The Media Fund


SOURCE: Dallas Morning News research

[dude1394]

You have to have someone to combat all of that Union money.

[Mavdog]

Barack Obama praises Sen. Clinton
By ADAM GOLDMAN, Associated Press Writer
Tue Dec 5, 2:20 AM ET

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama spoke at a charity event about the possibility of a win by Hillary Rodham Clinton in the 2008 presidential race and commented on the fatal police shooting of a 23-year-old in Queens, saying the 50 bullets that officers unloaded struck him as "excessive."

Obama, also a potential contender for the presidency in 2008, did not elaborate on his own shot at the White House during the charity event Monday night for Kids in Distressed Situations Inc., an organization that helps children living in poverty.

Instead, Obama had some kind words for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the powerful New York senator, who tops every national poll of likely Democratic candidates. He called her smart and tough.

"I'm not one of these people who thinks she can't win," he told reporters at a news conference after the charity event.

He said he understood why the media kept asking about whether he and Clinton would square off in a primary: It's "fun" to set up those scenarios, he said.

When Obama was asked about the fatal police shooting of 23-year-old groom Sean Bell in Queens more than a week ago, he didn't shy away from the question.

Obama said his assessment of what happened was similar to that of Mayor Michael Bloomberg: The dozens of bullets fired by five officers "strikes me as excessive," he said.

Obama said police operate with restraint 99 percent of the time, though "this may be one of the times they did not."

Police have said they fired on Bell's car because they believed someone in it had a gun, but no gun was found. Two of Bell's friends were wounded in the Nov. 25 shooting.

The Democrat quoted Ronald Reagan and told a story about Bobby Kennedy visiting the Mississippi Delta in 1967. He talked about the current minimum wage being insufficient and how single mothers like his do a heroic job.

Once his speech was over, he received a rousing standing ovation from the scores of people in the audience gathered at a midtown Manhattan hotel.

One woman couldn't stop taking pictures of the charismatic, sharply dressed senator from Illinois.

"I love him," she said.

[Mavdog]

Brownback calls for more family values
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

Republican presidential hopeful Sam Brownback on Thursday called for a return to an American culture that promotes family values — a theme meant to set the conservatives' favorite son apart in a growing GOP field.

The Kansas senator, in an interview with The Associated Press, also urged the United States to push more aggressively for Iraq to achieve "political equilibrium" even if it means partitioning the country along ethnic and religious lines.

"I'm saying, and I hope the Iraqi leadership is hearing it: We will not face the American public in 2008 with a situation that looks anything similar to where we are today ... American deployment of troops on the front line conducting the military operations," Brownback said.

Congress also should resist the impulse to stymie Iraqi efforts to grant insurgents amnesty if such proposals are "a significant part" of a political solution aimed at ending the nearly four-year-old conflict, said the senator.

In an hourlong interview with AP reporters and editors, Brownback discussed his presidential aspirations and his positions on issues such as the war, families, energy and immigration. The easygoing Kansas lawmaker launched an exploratory committee on Monday to gauge support for a potential White House run.

Despite being revered by the GOP's conservative wing for his staunch opposition to gay marriage and abortion as well as his record of fiscal restraint, Brownback is considered a long shot to win the nomination because he lacks the national recognition of other possible rivals.

For their part, Arizona Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), widely considered the front-runner, and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, seen as McCain's most serious challenger so far, have a solid head start in organizing their expected campaigns.

Both are hiring staffers for key positions and announcing supporters across the country each day. McCain's exploratory committee, for example, said Thursday that Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., was on board in Utah — home to the headquarters of Romney's Mormon church and his family's ski home.

Meantime, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani also is considering a run. He is courting backers and plans to hold his first fundraiser Dec. 19 in Manhattan.

A year before the first votes are cast, all three are seen as more likely than Brownback to win the nomination. But all three, to a certain extent, have records or positions on social or fiscal issues that don't sit well with the Republican base.

Thus, Brownback sees a natural opening in the field for someone of his ilk, particularly in Iowa, the first state to hold a primary contest.

"I am an economic, a fiscal, a social and a compassionate conservative," he said.

"I'm the one that has been there, is there and will be there in the future," he added, a subtle dig at his potential rivals who are trying to claim the conservative mantle.

Positioning himself as the traditional values candidate, Brownback said his campaign's main focus would be "to save and improve lives, rebuild families and renew the culture" in the United States that supports the institution of family.

"We don't have enough family formation taking place in this country," the father of five said. "We know the best place to raise children is between a mom and a dad. It's not the only place, and you can raise great kids in many different settings, and people do, and they struggle heroically to do it."

"Raising kids is difficult, and it's difficult, too when you have a culture that doesn't particularly support you, but is constantly pulling away," Brownback added.

Under questioning, Brownback said it's mostly up to states to decide whether single parents or gay couples could adopt children, and he declined to comment on Mary Cheney, the vice president's lesbian daughter whose recently disclosed pregnancy has prompted dismay among conservatives.

On another issue sure to be central to his would-be campaign, Brownback said the country is finally serious about taking the steps to reduce its dependence on foreign oil.

As part of a broader energy plan, the senator said he would be willing to consider changing his position on fuel economy standards to require automakers to make vehicles that go farther on a gallon of gas. Brownback has opposed a raise in the so-called CAFE standards but said he would support one as long as it wasn't too steep to endanger the U.S. auto industry while it is at financial risk.

As for Iraq, Brownback's remarks came one day after a bipartisan commission issued a blunt assessment that called for an urgent diplomatic attempt to stabilize the country and allow withdrawal of most U.S. combat troops by early 2008.

Brownback said he agreed with the commission's timetable, and urged the United States to engage other countries as well as push for a political solution.

"We are not willing to impose a military solution in Iraq. The Iraqis, I don't believe, are going to be capable of imposing a military solution. Therefore, you must get to some form of political equilibrium in Iraq. And by that I think you may end up having to have a Kurdish, a Sunni, a Shiite area, and Baghdad being a federal capital. Hopefully you can maintain it in one country," he said.

Despite the current state of Iraq, he declined to call the 2003 invasion a mistake.

"I've met with too many troops that have put their lives on the line, and too many families who have lost soldiers to say that," he said.

[Mavdog]

Voters favor McCain over Clinton in '08
But the Republican faces hurdles within his own party. Overall, those surveyed in a Times/Bloomberg poll say they want a Democrat in the White House.
By Janet Hook
Times Staff Writer

December 14, 2006

WASHINGTON — Democrats have an overwhelmingly favorable view of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, but she would be soundly beaten if she ran for president against Republican Sen. John McCain now, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

Underscoring the New York Democrat's potential vulnerability, the poll also found that Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican little known to most voters, would give Clinton a run for her money.

Given a choice between McCain and Clinton, half of those surveyed said they would vote for the Arizona Republican, compared with 36% for the former first lady. In a matchup with Romney, the poll indicated Clinton would win by just 6 percentage points, 42% to 36%.

Those findings lend credence to some Democrats' fear that despite Clinton's strength within the party, she is too polarizing a figure to win the White House.

The poll reinforces the view that McCain, although mistrusted by some in the GOP and expected to face a spirited fight if he seeks the nomination, would be a strong general election candidate because of his appeal to independent voters. Half of the independents surveyed said they would back McCain; 32% supported Clinton, with the rest undecided or naming someone else.

Still, the survey spotlighted obstacles to McCain emerging as the GOP standard-bearer. A significant segment of Republicans who call themselves conservatives — the base of the party — have an unfavorable opinion of him.

In contrast, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani received highly favorable marks across the party's ideological spectrum. Giuliani has not taken as many steps toward a presidential candidacy as McCain and Romney have, and the poll did not measure how he would perform against Clinton.

Other poll results highlighted the anti-GOP mood that helped Democrats win control of the next Congress in November's midterm election: Among registered voters, 49% said they would like to see a Democrat win the White House in 2008, whereas 41% preferred a Republican.

The findings come at a crucial time in the formation of the 2008 presidential field, which is expected to be crowded because neither party has an heir apparent. Competition is underway for donors and key strategists, and virtually all of the likely candidates are building organizations in the states pivotal to the nomination process, such as Iowa and New Hampshire.

At the same time, most of the anticipated contenders have yet to make much of an impression on voters, the poll found. Even Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), a charismatic African American who has gotten enormous attention since he began publicly musing about a presidential bid, remains obscure enough that 40% of the Democrats surveyed said they did not know enough about him to have an opinion on him.

A potential problem for Clinton, on the other hand, is that voters already know so much about her. Almost all of those polled had a strong opinion of her, and many doubted that she could draw enough swing voters to win a general election.

"I don't think anyone in the other party is going to vote for her," said Sean McCarthy, 32, a Democratic computer network manager in Los Angeles. "They have been practicing hating her for too long."

The poll indicated that Clinton's gender and Obama's race did not necessarily loom as big liabilities for them. Only 4% of registered voters said they would not vote for a woman for president; 3% said they would not vote for an African American.

Romney's religion — he is a Mormon — and McCain's age could be more problematic. Fourteen percent of registered voters polled said they would not vote for a Mormon, and the same number said they would not vote for someone who is 72 years old, which will be McCain's age by election day in 2008.

The poll of 1,489 adults — including 1,342 registered voters — was supervised by Times Polling Director Susan Pinkus. It was conducted Friday through Monday and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The sample included 473 registered Republicans, who were asked about potential GOP candidates; and 585 registered Democrats, who were asked about their party's hopefuls. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points for Republicans and plus or minus 4 for Democrats.

Among Republicans, the two best-known and most popular potential candidates are Giuliani and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Both were viewed favorably by more than 80% of those polled.

Giuliani, renowned for his leadership role after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, surpassed the 80% favorable mark even among conservative Republicans polled — in spite of his liberal record on issues such as abortion, gay rights and gun control. He has formed a presidential exploratory committee; Rice has said she does not plan to run for president.

The view of McCain is more mixed among Republicans, with 65% of those polled viewing him favorably and 20% viewing him unfavorably.

Among GOP conservatives, about a quarter of those polled expressed an unfavorable opinion of McCain. Some other Republicans regard him with suspicion because they believe he is moving to the right to curry favor with the GOP establishment.

"I don't like John McCain because he's been a wishy-washy guy," said Delroy Gorecki, 69, a retired lawyer and Republican who lives in St. Augustine, Fla. "I would vote for Giuliani over McCain. At least Rudy has been consistent."

But 87% of Republicans polled said that they would back McCain over Clinton — fueling the view that nothing unites the GOP so tightly as hostility toward Clinton.

Among Democrats, Clinton has done much to improve her image since her husband's first term in the White House, when ethics scandals and her foray into healthcare policy hurt her reputation. A Times survey in July 1994 found that 59% of Democrats polled had a favorable impression of her — far fewer than the 79% who view her favorably now.

Some Democrats have been won over by her performance as New York's junior senator. Since taking office in 2001, and during her reelection campaign this year, she has cast herself as a workhorse, not a show horse.

"The first time she ran, I didn't vote for her," said Mary Pollack, 60, a Democrat in New York City. "But I've been impressed about how she didn't steal the spotlight and came to considered conclusions."

Although many Democrats know little about Obama, those polled who had an impression were overwhelmingly supportive — 54% gave him a favorable rating, and 5% were unfavorable. Sixty-one percent of women polled had a positive impression of him; among men, the figure was 44%.

John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina who was the Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2004, is better known than Obama and is well-liked: 65% of those polled in his party had a favorable impression of him. Still, many Democratic strategists think that if both get into the race, Obama's star power would make it harder for Edwards to position himself as the most prominent alternative to Clinton.

The potential Democratic candidate viewed most negatively was Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), the party's 2004 nominee. One-third of Democrats polled had an unfavorable impression of him, while 58% viewed him favorably. Another former Democratic nominee, Al Gore, made a better impression; he was viewed favorably by 74% of Democrats.

[Flacolaco]

I didnt realize McCain will be 72 years old in 08....wow. I bet some folks would love to be his vice president....

[jacktruth]

Brownback needs to learn one lesson: stop saying "compassionate conservative."
It's a dead slogan that brings to mind an administration that even most conservatives want to let go of.

[dude1394]

This can't be good.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110009401

Only for so long will Mr. Obama’s sparkling personality help him avoid troubling questions about his ideological record. The fact that he originally opposed the war in Iraq would help him with primary voters, but it’s unclear how many Democrats want to plump for someone who, according to National Journal, has a more liberal voting record than Hillary Clinton. Last year Mr. Obama had a perfect 100% voting record from both the Americans for Democratic Action and the AFL-CIO.

His record as a state legislator is even more liberal. In 1996, he spoke out against the Defense of Marriage Act, which the Senate approved 85-14 and Mr. Clinton signed into law. He twice voted “present” on a bill to ban partial-birth abortions. In 1999 he was the only state senator to oppose a law that prohibited early prison release for sex offenders. Is anyone naive enough to believe Mrs. Clinton wouldn’t use those positions as evidence that he couldn’t win?

[Mavdog]

is he the "new south" candidate?
----------------------------------------------------
Edwards seeks to make 2nd time a charm By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 59 minutes ago

Two years older and he says wiser, too, John Edwards announced a repeat presidential campaign Thursday with new ideas that make him a very different candidate the second time around.

In 2004, Edwards was the moderate southern senator who promoted middle class tax cuts and tried to position himself as the best general election alternative to President Bush.

This time the 53-year-old faces a tougher fight for the Democratic nomination and has a more progressive campaign of eliminating poverty, reducing global warming and providing universal health care for all Americans.

He's apologizing for his vote to send troops to Iraq — which he stood by steadfastly in the 2004 campaign — and is calling for 40,000-50,000 troops to come home immediately.

And those middle class tax cuts he campaigned on in 2004? "At this point, it's hard to see how to do that," Edwards said in an interview after his campaign kickoff in New Orleans.

The unorthodox campaign launch site — the middle of a neighborhood still devastated more than a year after Hurricane Katrina — itself demonstrated how Edwards campaign has changed. In 2004, he had an official kickoff in his hometown of Robbins, N.C. for a campaign that stressed his up-from-the-bootstraps biography that turned the son of a mill worker into a successful trial attorney and then senator.

This time around, Edwards didn't mention one word about his personal story. He talked less about what he wanted to do as president and more about how everyone can change the country.

"That's why I'm in New Orleans," said Edwards, standing before student volunteers working to rebuild a home, "is to show what's possible when we as Americans, instead of staying home and complaining about somebody else not doing what they're supposed to, we actually take responsibility and we take action."

Edwards wore blue jeans and an open-necked shirt and stood casually before a line of television cameras and reporters to make his announcement. There was no TelePrompTer, no American flag backdrop and no cheering crowd that is typical of a presidential kickoff.

Edwards' advisers scheduled a six-state announcement tour between Christmas and New Year's Day with the hopes that news would be slow and he could dominate media coverage. Over three days, Edwards also planned to travel to Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and his home state of North Carolina.

Edwards was trying to make a unique entrance into what is bound to be a competitive race for president. Only two others have officially announced their candidacies — Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack and Rep. Dennis Kucinich — but several others are expected to join the race in the new year.

The most dominant figures are Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and Edwards' first question from the gathered reporters was about how he intends to compete with them. "I want the best human beings possible to run for president of the United States," Edwards said.

The race also might include Edwards' former partner on the Democratic ticket — 2004 presidential nominee John Kerry.

In an interview later in a nearby home that is almost completely rebuilt, Edwards brushed aside any suggestion that it might be awkward to take on the man who chose him for the national ticket last time around.

Edwards said the biggest responsibility of the next president will be to restore America's moral leadership in the world. He said the Bush administration's leadership in Iraq has been a disaster and that it would be a mistake to send in more troops, which Bush is considering in the new year.

Edwards said it's a "fair question" to ask about his lack of foreign policy experience after just one term in the Senate. But he said he's spend the last two years since he left office traveling the world. "It's given me some depth and understanding that didn't exist before that time," he said.

And he noted that the Bush administration has included such experienced foreign policy hands as Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and "they've been an absolute disaster by any measure."

Edwards said it's not just Iraq that it is chaos and in need of moral leadership from the United States. He said the United States should be leading an end to genocide in Sudan and to atrocities in northern Uganda. He also said the United States should be part of the International Criminal Court, something that Bush has fought against to keep Americans from facing politically motivated prosecutions.

He also said the country should end its dependence on foreign oil. He said he would tax oil company profits and eliminate Bush's tax cuts to pay for his priorities.

In the interview later, Edwards said he will have a health care plan that will provide coverage for every American, something that few presidential candidates have considered a winning issue because of the high cost.

"I didn't have a universal health care plan (last time). Nobody did," Edwards said. "I shouldn't say nobody. I think Dennis Kucinich may have."

Kucinich, the most liberal presidential candidate in 2004 and 2008, wants national health insurance providing single-payer universal health care. He also wants to replace the Department of Defense with a Department of Peace and is a long-shot candidate for president.

Edwards said he's still working out the details of his health care plan and doesn't yet have a cost estimate.

[purplefrog]

This is exactly why I get so frustrated with the Dems. They believe in recycling alright.... recycling old loser candidates that really have no substance or chance to win a general election. Edwards, Kucinich, next will be Gore, and then maybe Kerry... man this is embarassing. Is Gary Hart still around? Maybe he should throw his hat in the ring. And where is Dick Gephardt, let's get him out of the basement and clean him off for another run. Why do they do these things... it's just embarassing. The Dems win in 2006 with moderate candidates and the old guard still wants to be the commander-in-chief. Hey Dems listen to what the people are saying!!!

[jacktruth]

Help? Hindrance? Wash?
----------------------------


Obama Admissions on Drug Use Could Signal New Era in Politics

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

WASHINGTON — The recent publicity around Sen. Barack Obama has pushed his name up the list of presidential front-runners, but his memoir of 11 years ago, in which Obama admits to using marijuana and cocaine, is stirring questions about the Illinois Democrat's fitness to lead the nation.

A top Democratic prospect for the 2008 White House, Obama wrote about himself in "Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance."

"Junkie. Pothead. That's where I'd been headed: the final, fatal role of the young would-be black man. ... I got high [to] push questions of who I was out of my mind," he wrote in the book.

The Illinois Democrat is the first White House contender to admit trying cocaine. In 1992, then-presidential candidate Bill Clinton said he "didn't inhale" when asked about sampling pot while a college student. Rumors flew about President Bush using cocaine. He never admitted to such experimentation, but doesn't drink alcohol after much liberal consumption as a young man.

The Washington Post reported in Wednesday's editions that Obama's candor could represent a new era in politics, particularly since such revelations are not shocking to now power-wielding baby boomers.

Click here to read The Washington Post story.

Still, such admissions are not common for success-seeking politicians.

"This is not the kind of book you would ever expect a politician to write," GOP consultant Alex Vogel told the Post. "Anyone who has a career in politics has to be concerned with what's in their past, but there is no question that Americans have an appetite for redemption."

Obama's latest book now tops bestseller lists with 800,000 copies in print. Brisk sales of his latest book, "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream," demonstrate his popularity.

Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs told the newspaper that the book shows the freshman senator is someone Americans can trust.

"I believe what the country is looking for is someone who is open, honest and candid about themselves rather than someone who seems endlessly driven by polls or focus groups," Gibbs said.

[dude1394]

I have a feeling the late-night comics won't be making the same jokes about Obama. You think?

I think maybe it will now be spun as courage to admit it. Sheesh...

[Mavdog]

I do not expect that the issue of any past drug use will have an affect on obama, those who were keen (dare I say "high on him"?) on his candidacy won't care about any daliance while those who did not have a positive opinion have more reason to not like him.

in other words, the conservatives who would have an issue with past drug use weren't going to support him, and the rest who are eager for obama to run don't care.

[Mavdog]

'This is clearly a dirty trick'
BY DAVID SALTONSTALLand BEN SMITH
DAILY NEWS STAFF WRITERS
Wednesday, January 3rd, 2007

The fledgling Giuliani presidential campaign charged yesterday that it was the victim of a mysterious "dirty trick" in the theft of the former mayor's political road map for 2008.
The astonishing charge threatened to overshadow the candid details in the 140-page strategy guide obtained by the Daily News from a source sympathetic to a rival campaign.

"This is clearly a dirty trick," said Giuliani spokeswoman Sunny Mindel. "The voters are sick and tired of this kind of thing."

Mindel said that while working on the 2006 campaign trail, a Giuliani aide lost a piece of luggage containing the paper.

"During one leg of his campaign travel, all luggage was removed from a private plane and later put back on," she said in a statement. "However, one staffer's bag was not returned.

"After repeated requests over the course of a few days, the bag was finally returned with the document inside. Because our staffer had custody of this document at all times except for this one occasion, it is clear that the document was removed from the luggage and photocopied."

She did not say exactly where or when the strategy paper was lost, or what was in it, but Mindel downplayed its importance, saying it is "simply someone's ideas which were committed to paper over three months ago."

Still, the paper outlines personal and political pitfalls for Giuliani and a boldly ambitious fund-raising goal of $100 million for this year.

And the depth of detail in the document, as well as the contents - which include a more detailed portrait of Giuliani's financial backers than the campaign has disclosed - belies the notion that the dossier is the stray ramblings of a junior aide.

A handwritten memo containing a list of Giuliani's vulnerabilities - from his second and third wives to his private-sector business - appears to have been written by a senior aide with a focus on fund-raising.

Personal notes there and elsewhere in the document suggest that the memo, along with much of the contents of the dossier, were prepared by chief fund-raiser Anne Dickerson, a former campaign aide to President Bush who joined Giuliani amid fanfare in May.

"Does any of it cause RWG to lose his lustre? confidence?" the memo asked, referring to Giuliani, whose middle name is William, by his initials. "Donors to drop off?"

A note written in the margin contained yet another concern: "False comfort with numbers," apparently referring to Giuliani's high poll numbers.

The dossier also reveals a wealth of information about where Giuliani plans to raise the $100 million-plus that the fund-raising plan suggests he needs this year.

One name appears throughout the document: Paul Singer, a discreet hedge-fund tycoon who has been described as the Republican George Soros. He was one of George Bush's most important financial supporters in 2004, a donor to Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and a prominent backer of an anti-affirmative action campaign in Michigan, according to campaign finance and press reports.

Singer is listed as heading the campaign's effort to raise cash from hedge-fund donors, and as playing a central role in recruiting other contributors. He also has apparently been given the sensitive task of recruiting family members of victims and survivors of the Sept. 11 attacks to Giuliani's campaign. One note in the handwritten memo, apparently a task for Giuliani aide Denny Young, reads: "9/11 groups for PS to contact." Paul Singer is the only member of Giuliani's team with those initials.

The dossier also included the invitation list to a Nov. 15 luncheon at the posh '21' restaurant in Manhattan that marked the first real gathering of top supporters of Giuliani's exploratory bid.

At the time, Giuliani insiders released the names of only about a half-dozen of the meeting's participants, including Texas oilman Boone Pickens, former California gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon, and Tom Hicks, owner of the Texas Rangers and the Dallas Stars.

But the fuller list includes more than 40 names from 25 different states, including Iowa, Nevada, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and other important presidential battlegrounds.

The list suggests that Giuliani has been casting a much wider net than previously disclosed, and sometimes into waters that conservative voters may find troublesome. Among the invitees, for instance, was Sheldon Adelson, whose Las Vegas Sands gambling empire stretches from Nevada to China and has made him the third richest man in the nation, according to Forbes.com.

An attached agenda suggests that the group got an overview of Giuliani's presidential finance plan from Dickerson, and a political overview from Giuliani strategists Pat Oxford, Chris Henick and Anthony Carbonetti. Then they adjourned to the Grand Havana Room, one of the few private clubs in the city that still allows smoking.


THE SECRET FILES

The 140-page dossier obtained by the Daily News reveals both the hopes and the fears of Rudy Giuliani and his aides as the former mayor ponders a run for President in 2008. Some highlights from the memo, apparently compiled at the end of October, include:

* A handwritten page listing "problems" that Giuliani could face, among them:

His association with disgraced former NYPD Commissioner Bernard Kerik.

His breakup with ex-wife Donna Hanover and his marriage to Judith Nathan.

His business interests and his views on "social issues," which are decidedly more liberal than most Republicans'.

* Giuliani's aides have created an aggressive fund-raising schedule that sets a $100 million to $125 million "baseline" goal for 2007.

The plan calls for 250 fund-raising events over the course of the year, including 50 between Feb. 15 and March 31.

* Borrowing a page from George W. Bush, Giuliani may categorize his top fund-raisers. Using baseball metaphors, "Team Captains" would bring in $1 million each, MVPs would bring in $200,000 each, All-Stars would bring in $100,000 and Sluggers would raise $50,000.

* His personal schedule reveals a man pulled far afield: In a three-month period, Giuliani was to be in 11 countries on four continents.

* Notes suggest his aides were more concerned about Giuliani's vulnerability than he would ever let on. "Does any of it cause RWG [Giuliani] to lose his lustre? confidence? Donors to drop off? Drop out of race?"


****
The dossier contains a wish-list flow chart of "prospective" key Republican backers. Some have signed onto Giuliani's campaign; others have not committed or have gone to a rival.

Joining Team Giuliani: Home Depot founder Ken Langone, hedge fund manager Paul Singer and Texas oilman Boone Pickens.

Joining the presidential exploratory committee of rival Republican Sen. John McCain: New Jersey fund-raisers Lew Eisenberg and Larry Bathgate, FedEx CEO Fred Smith and financier Henry Kravis.

Uncommitted: Paramount CEO Brad Grey, former Vikings quarterback Fran Tarkenton, News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch, PepsiCo chief Dawn Hudson and Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

[purplefrog]

I think he we will have to respond to media queries about the frequency of use and when he stopped. Maybe he covers this in his book. Regardless, I think he will be asked questions about it and how he chooses to respond to those questions will be important. He is creating a personna of being an open and frank politician so if he starts looking like he is hiding something, then he wil be knocked down a few notches.

[Mavdog]

Obama to launch '08 bid in Springfield
By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer

Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) plans to formally launch his campaign for president in Springfield, the city where Abraham Lincoln lived and worked before being elected the nation's 16th president.

The announcement would come around Lincoln's birthday and help underscore Obama's hope of positioning himself as a uniter who can rise above partisan bickering. Obama, like Lincoln, served in the Illinois General Assembly in Springfield.

Obama said Tuesday that he has formed an exploratory committee to study a presidential bid and will announce his final decision on Feb. 10.

Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes, an early advocate of Obama's candidacy, said he has been told the formal announcement is planned for the capital city.

"There's a clear, very significant symbolism there," Hynes said.

Obama, a Democrat, lives in Chicago but may want to avoid reminding voters of that city and its long history of corrupt, insider politics.

An announcement in Springfield would emphasize his legislative experience there and the parallels to Lincoln, who turned a slim political record into a successful presidential campaign and then led the nation through the Civil War.

The city offers several potential backdrops to a presidential announcement: Lincoln's home, his presidential library and the former state capitol where he delivered the famed "house divided" speech.

Obama served eight years in the Illinois Senate before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004.

[purplefrog]

I heard on Meet the Press that Sen Chris Dodd (D-CT) has also announced he is running for President in '08.

[ocelot_ark]

Barack Obama, though I'm not very political, seems like a pretty damn strong candidate to me.

[Drbio]

Perhaps OA, but I doubt he even wins his own party nomination. Too little experience and he has yet to come forward on his views on several issues.

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by Drbio

Perhaps OA, but I doubt he even wins his own party nomination. Too little experience and he has yet to come forward on his views on several issues.

Who is OA? And would you be able to advise him on child porn?

[Drbio]

Do you even try to contribute anymore cumdawg?

[chumdawg]

Hey, don't look at me. I like naked cheerleaders as much as the next guy.

[Drbio]

Got anything to contribute to this thread chum? Of course not. Troll away.

[chumdawg]

Nekkid!!!

[chumdawg]

.